Ovibos Moschatus) and Peary Caribou (Rangifer Tarandus Pearyi) on Graham, Buckingham, and South- Ern Ellesmere Islands, March 2015

Home , Baumann Fiord, Graham Island (Nunavut), Vendom Fiord

Distribution and abundance of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on Graham, Buckingham, and South- ern Ellesmere Islands, March 2015

Morgan Anderson1 & Michael C. S. Kingsley†

1 Wildlife Biologist High Arctic, Department of Environment, Wildlife Research Section, Government of Nunavut 1 Box 209 Igloolik, NU X0A 0L0. Current address: BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations 1 and Rural Development, 2000 South Ospika Blvd Prince George BC V2N 4W5, (Corresponding author: 1 [email protected]).

Abstract: We flew a survey of southern Ellesmere Island, Graham Island, and Buckingham Island in March 2015 to obtain estimates of abundance for muskoxen and Peary caribou. Generally, muskoxen were abundant north of the Sydkap Ice Cap along Baumann Fiord, north of Goose Fiord, west and north of Muskox Fiord, and on the coastal plains and river valleys east of Vendom Fiord. Although few, they were also present on Bjorne Peninsula and the south coast between the Sydkap Ice Cap and Jakeman Glacier. We observed a total of 1146 muskoxen. Calves (approximately 10-months old) made up 22% of the observed animals. The population estimate was 3200 ± 602 SE (standard error) muskoxen, the highest muskox population size ever estimated for southern Ellesmere, Graham and Buckingham islands. This could be because previous efforts typically surveyed only a portion of our area or focused elsewhere, or the results were provided only as minimum counts rather than estimates of abundance. Regardless, our results indicate that the muskox population has recovered from low levels in 2005 of 312-670 (95% confidence interval [CI]) individuals. Peary caribou abundance appears to be low. We only saw 38 Peary caribou during our 2015 survey. This confounds appraisal of possible abundance change since 2005, when 109-442 caribou (95% CI) were estimated to inhabit the same surveyed area. We estimated 183 ± 128 SE Peary caribou, and suggest that their numbers are likely stable at low density on southern Ellesmere Island.

Key words: Peary caribou; Rangifer tarandus peary; muskox; Ovibos moschatus; Ellesmere Island; aerial survey; abundance.

Rangifer, 37, (1), 2017: 97-114 DOI 10.7557/2.37.1.4269

Introduction Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) are bou are currently listed as Endangered under found only in the Canadian Arctic Archipel- Canada’s Species at Risk Act, although recently ago in the Northwest Territories and Nuna- reassessed by the Committee on the Status of vut, from the Boothia Peninsula in the south Endangered Wildlife in Canada as threatened to Ellesmere Island in the north. Peary cari- (COSEWIC, 2015). Monitoring of Peary cari-

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 97 bou, including both local knowledge and sci- survey was flown in 2014 and not completed, entific investigation, is a challenge across their due to weather. The 2005 survey estimated 456 range due to logistic and funding constraints, muskoxen (95% CI=312-670) and 219 Peary severe weather, limited observation seasons, caribou (95% CI=109-244), and noted poor and long distances from a few small communi- body condition of many muskoxen (Campbell, ties. Surveys of Peary caribou, and muskoxen 2006; Jenkins et al., 2011). Residents of Grise (Ovibos moschatus), with which they are sym- Fiord recall that in the fall and winter 2005 patric over most of their range, have been in- there was freezing rain and ground-fast ice, frequent and irregular since 1961, especially in which may have resulted in many muskoxen the northern and eastern arctic (COSEWIC, starving (Iviq Hunters and Trappers Associa- 2015). Local knowledge of population trends tion, pers. comm.). and abundance is available for areas visited The muskoxen and Peary caribou of northern by hunters, typically near communities, but Devon Island, southern Ellesmere Island, and this knowledge is limited or unavailable in ar- Graham Island are essential natural resources eas of rugged topography and unstable sea ice. for the Grise Fiord community. Muskoxen have The most recent surveys on Ellesmere Island been an important food source since the govern- for population estimates and distribution of ment hunting ban was lifted in 1969. Muskox muskoxen and Peary caribou were in 2005 and tags are currently set aside for domestic/com- 2006 (Jenkins et al., 2011), although a partial mercial and sport harvest, administered by

Figure 1. Study area on southern Ellesmere Island (approx.. 76°N to 78°N, 81°W to 90°W), Graham Island, and Buckingham Island, with major topographic features labelled. Peary caribou range is shown in yellow on the inset map for context.

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 98 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 the Hunters and Trappers Association (HTA). of latitude spaced 5 km apart. Survey strips Peary caribou have been continuously hunted were 500 m wide to each side of the aircraft since Grise Fiord was established in 1953, al- for a total strip width of 1 km. Distance sam- though the community did impose voluntary pling was not used, because we did not expect restrictions on harvest areas when caribou pop- sufficient caribou observations to calculate the ulations were low. Primary areas frequented by effective strip width required for that sampling hunters since at least 1964 include the Bjorne technique. Peninsula, south shore of Baumann Fiord, and The area south of Jakeman Glacier to King Graham Island (Riewe 1973, Inuit Qaujima- Edward Point was originally included in the jatuqangit [IQ] in Taylor 2005, Iviq HTA pers. survey area but could not be flown due to comm.). Local knowledge suggests that petro- weather; it was not flown in 2005 either. Ice leum exploration in the 1970s had a negative caps were excluded from our survey, and we impact on the Peary caribou by altering their did not detect any caribou, muskoxen, or their range use and movements, and there is concern tracks during ferry flights over ice caps. Al- that future industrial activity would also be det- though North Kent Island was not surveyed rimental (Iviq HTA, pers. comm.). in 2005 and no muskoxen or caribou were In March 2015, using the 2005 survey area, observed during a 2008 survey (Jenkins et al., we conducted an aerial fixed-wing survey to 2011), hunters reported caribou at the north update population estimates, distributions end of the island in the recent past, so we gave and demographics of the muskoxen and Peary this island a reconnaissance (albeit no system- caribou on southern Ellesmere Island, Graham atic transects) in 2015. Island, and Buckingham Island. Our results To define the transect width for observers, suggest abundance trends for these species and we marked survey aircraft wing struts following introduce a method to determine variance for Norton-Griffiths (1978). We did not stratify strip transect surveys of low density species. the study area, because stratification relevant for muskoxen could be irrelevant for Peary cari- Material and methods bou, as they may have dissimilar distribution From March 19-26, 2015, we completed densities. Stratifications from the 2005 survey an aerial systematic strip transect survey for did not align well with reconnaissance and muskoxen and Peary caribou over a study area current local knowledge of distribution, and including Graham Island, Buckingham Island, the 2005 survey only stratified based on Peary and Ellesmere Island approximately 76°N to caribou density. It was uncertain whether older 78°N and 81°W to 90°W (Figure 1). The sur- surveys reflected current distribution, or how vey season was selected to allow us to assess well the stratification they employed captured recruitment as well as determine abundance, the distribution of muskox and caribou density. to avoid disturbing wildlife immediately pre- Furthermore, funding and logistic constraints calving or when newborn calves are present, to make pre-survey stratification flights impracti- minimize chances of animals moving among cal for the study area. transects during migration or high movement Transects were flown at 150 km/hr (81 kts) seasons, and to have adequate snow cover and with a DeHavilland Twin Otter fixed-wing air- daylight to maximize detection. The total area, craft. We flew only on days with good visibility which included lakes and rivers but excluded and high contrast to facilitate detection of ani- ice-caps, was approximately 22,791 km2. We mals, tracks, and feeding craters, as well as for used 77 systematic survey lines along parallels operational reasons to ensure crew safety. Flight

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 99 Sampling Fraction, f (%) 0.199 0.201 0.195 0.199 0.198 0.201 0.199 0.265 0.201 0.202 0.197 0.230 0.201 ) 2 Survey Area, z (km 4896.0 296.5 3322.5 1573.6 296.5 4439.1 456.9 296.5 2657.9 576.0 685.2 977.0 296.5 - Lines Sur veyed 39 11 39 38 11 39 10 11 31 17 16 18 11 Transects Transects Surveyed 62 11 62 54 11 52 10 11 31 17 16 18 11 Transect Transect Spacing (km) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 ) 2 Strata Area, Strata Z (km 21260 1531 13921 7339 1531 18988 2272 1531 10029 2865 3397 4969 1531 Location South Ellesmere Graham, Buckingham South Ellesmere Low Elevation (<400 m) South Ellesmere High Elevation (>400 m) Graham, Buckingham South Ellesmere Bjorne Peninsula Graham, Buckingham South Ellesmere Fiord East Vendom Bjorne Peninsula Southwest Ellesmere Graham, Buckingham Block ID A C A B C A B C I III IV V C Stratification All Elevation Bjorne Case and Ellsworth Table 1. Survey strata for southern Ellesmere Island, March 2015. Although 73 transects were flown, flown on the same latitude combined as lines for 1. Survey strata for southern Ellesmere Island, March 2015. Table further analysis.

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 100 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 height was set at 152 m (500’), using a radar survey stratification followed Case & Ellsworth altimeter, and adhered to as closely as possible (1991). The 2005 survey was flown with a flex- given the rugged terrain. ible stratification regime, tightening transects Several local hunters experienced in cari- to 2.5 km apart when Peary caribou were en- bou and muskox surveys were trained and countered, which did not address muskox dis- employed as observers. For each survey flight, tribution, so we did not attempt to replicate the there were four observers (two front and two 2005 stratification. rear on each side of the aircraft) and addition- Owing to this study’s systematic transect ally a data recorder/navigator. The observers lines, and the distribution of animals in dis- followed a co-operative double-observer plat- tinct patches of suitable habitat between moun- form protocol, which has been successful else- tains, ice sheets, and coastlines, we expected where in Nunavut (Campbell et al., 2012; An- our muskox and caribou observations to be derson, 2014). Paired front and rear observers patchily distributed and serially correlated. Al- communicated via intercom and consolidated though Jolly’s (1969) Method II is widely used their observations into one pool. On those oc- for population estimates from surveys, it is in- casions when a fourth observer was unavailable, tended for a simple random design, rather than the data recorder/navigator also served as an our systematic survey of a patchy population. observer. Animal observations and lines flown For systematic samples from serially correlated were recorded using handheld Garmin 62STC populations, estimates of uncertainty based on GPS (Global Positioning System) units. Since deviations from the sample mean are expected we limited disturbance to one flight pass, sex to be upwardly biased and influenced by the and age classification were normally not pos- degree of serial correlation; high serial correla- sible, however, classification as adult or calf tion implies that there is less random variation (approximate age 10-months) was often feasi- in the unsurveyed sections between systemati- ble owing to size differences. Given the March cally spaced transects than if serial correlation timing of this survey, newborn muskoxen and were low (Cochran, 1977). Calculating uncer- caribou were not present – animals classified as tainty based on nearest-neighbor differences calves during this survey refer to approximately incorporates serial correlation, and the upward 10-month old calves. bias in the uncertainty is expected to be less than if it were calculated based on deviations Analysis from the sample mean. Nearest-neighbor- Post-survey stratification difference methods have been used previously Although the survey was completed without to calculate variance around survey estimates stratification for probable high and low ani- on the unweighted ratio estimate (Kingsley & mal densities, we did apply several post-survey Smith, 1981; Stirling et al., 1982; Kingsley et stratifications to investigate the impact of dif- al., 1985). ferent stratification regimes on the final esti- The model for observations on a tran- mate, which may aid in future survey planning. sect survey following Cochran (1977) is: Post-survey stratifications were generally based on separating or clumping some or all of the three surveyed islands. Elevations and treat- ing the Bjorne Peninsula separately were also Where yi is the number of observations on considered (Figure 2, Table 1). Finally, to per- transect i of area zi, R is the mean density and mit comparison with a July 1989 survey, post- error terms εi are independently and identically

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 101 Figure 2. Several stratification regimes for the study area based on geography, elevation, and Case & Ellsworth’s (1991) strata. distributed. In this model, the variance of the latitude were combined as a transect for analy- error term is proportional to the area surveyed. sis, a total of 39 transects on Ellesmere Island The best estimate of the mean density is: and 10 transects on Graham and Buckingham islands. This reduced n, the total number of R̂ transects, but also meant that short segments between icefields and across peninsulas were The error sum of squares, based on deviations not considered separately as a complete tran- from the sample mean, is given by: sect. The sampling fraction also provides the scaling factor for moving from a ratio (population density) to a population estimate. It is

calculated as (( ∑zi )) ⁄ Z, where Z is the study The finite-population-corrected error variance area. The irregular study area boundaries mean of is: that f varies from the 20% sampling fraction indicated by the 1-km survey strip and 5-km R̂ transect spacing. To incorporate serial correlation in the vari-

Where f is the sampling fraction and n is the ance, we used a nearest-neighbor-difference cal- number of transects. Lines flown on the same culation, with the error sum of squares given

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 102 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 by: was 19.8% of the total area. We were unable to fly on March 22 due to low cloud, but oth- erwise conditions were good with <10% cloud cover, no blowing snow, and complete snow i.e. the sum of squared deviations from pairwise cover, except where it was blown clear from weighted mean densities. The nearest-neigh- ridges or did not accumulate in cliffy terrain. bor-difference error variance of is: We saw 636 muskoxen and 36 Peary caribou on the systematic transect lines (Figure 2). R̂ The spatial data presented are waypoints along the flight path, so groups that were observed Both variance calculations were applied to on transect were within 500 m of the waypoint several stratification regimes for the southern and groups off transect were >500 m from the Ellesmere Island survey data. For the final esti- waypoint. A further 510 muskoxen and 2 cari- mate, we used the unstratified (Ellesmere plus bou were observed off transect (> 500 m from Graham and Buckingham islands) estimate the aircraft) for a total of 1146 muskoxen and and the nearest-neighbor-difference variance. 38 Peary caribou. Some off-transect muskox All distance measurements used North Pole observations were more than 2 km away. Av- Azimuthal Equidistant projection and area- erage group size was 8.9-12.1 (95% CI) for dependent work used North Pole Lambert Azi- muskoxen, and 2.6-6.9 (95% CI) for Peary muthal Equal Area, with central meridian at caribou. No muskoxen, Peary caribou or their 85°W and latitude of origin at 76°N (centered tracks were observed during the reconnaissance over the study area for high precision) in Arc- of North Kent Island. GIS 10.1 (ESRI, Redlands, CA). Population growth rates were calculated fol- Abundance estimates lowing the exponential growth function, which For southern Ellesmere Island, Graham Island, approximates growth when populations are and Buckingham Island, our non-stratified sur- not limited by resources or competition (John- vey resulted in a muskox abundance estimate of rt r son 1996): Nt=N0e and λ= e where Nt is the 3200 ± 602 SE, with a Coefficient of Variation population size at time t and N0 is the initial (CV) of 19% (Table 2). The Peary caribou es- population size (taken here as the previous sur- timate was 183 ± 128 SE (CV=70%; Table 3). vey in 2005). The instantaneous rate of change The use of nearest-neighbour-difference analy- is r, which is also represented as a constant ratio sis had a positive effect, lowering the variance of population sizes, λ. When r >0 or λ >1, the and CV of the final population estimates (Ta- population is increasing; when r <0 or λ <1 the bles 1, 2). Caution should be exercised when population is decreasing. Values of r ~0 or λ ~1 interpreting the Peary caribou population size suggest a stable population. estimate, because few caribou (n=36) were ac- tually seen. Results The survey took 49.5 flight hours (35.6 hours Late winter calf percentage on transect) and we completed 73 of the in- In March 2015 it was possible to age classify 101 tended 77 systematic transect lines, for a total groups of muskoxen, which included 289 adults combined survey line distance of 4,521 km and 64 calves (approximate age 10-months). (Figure 3). Given strip width was 1 km and to- This was a late-winter calf percentage of 22.1% tal study area 22,791 km2, our survey coverage for muskoxen. Only four caribou groups were

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 103 CV 0.204 0.189 0.336 0.172 0.291 0.815 0.256 0.342 0.392 0.520 0.227 0.187 SE 653 537 112 548 818 53 820 286 414 77 199 546

Ŷ) ( 426528 288263 12513 300776 669465 2775 672240 81994 171175 5990 39433 298592 Var Var 194.057 202.559 15.726 340.405 2.768 91.216 255.597 7.128 34.958 Deviations from sample mean Error Sum of Squares CV 0.188 0.178 0.322 0.163 0.222 0.858 0.218 0.249 0.355 0.560 0.233 0.165 602 507 107 518 697 55 699 209 374 83 204 482 SE

Ŷ) ( Var Var 362230 257061 11488 268549 486171 3076 489248 43637 140033 6949 41588 232207 164.804 180.633 14.438 247.205 3.069 48.545 209.096 8.269 36.869 Nearest-neighbor-difference Error Sum of Squares Density, Density, 0.151 0.205 0.045 0.150 0.165 0.028 0.151 0.084 0.368 0.044 0.176 0.137

Ŷ - Esti mate, 3200 2847 333 3180 3140 65 3204 838 1054 149 875 2916 636 571 65 636 623 13 636 222 212 30 172 636 Count, y ) 2 Surveyed area z (km 4225 2792 1433 4225 3768 457 4225 2658 576 685 977 4896 ) 2 Stratum area Z (km 21260 13921 7339 21260 18988 2272 21260 10029 2865 3397 4969 21260 Stratum All Low Elev High Elev Total Main Bjorne Total I Southeast III Vendom IV Bjorne V Southwest Total Table 2. Calculations following Cochran (1977) for a systematic survey and ratio estimator for muskoxen on southern Ellesmere Island. Variance was calculated 2. Calculations following Cochran (1977) for a systematic survey and ratio estimator muskoxen on southern Ellesmere Island. Variance Table based on sample mean and nearest-neighbor to account for serial correlation in the data.

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 104 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 classified, and included eight adults and one may have reduced muskox condition, survival calf (approximate age 10-months), which is not and reproduction that year as well (Iviq HTA, sufficient to determine a late winter Peary cari- pers. comm.). The final population estimate in bou calf percentage. 2005 was only 456 muskoxen (Jenkins et al., 2011). Group size Our survey estimated 3200 ± 602 SE Muskox group size averaged 8.9-12.1 muskox- muskoxen in 2015. Our use of nearest-neigh- en (95% CI, n=106, median=8). Caribou bour-difference analysis appears to have added groups were smaller, 2.6-6.9 caribou (95% CI), precision to the estimate. Comparing the 2005 but only eight groups were seen. and 2015 estimates results in an instantaneous growth rate (r) of 0.202 annually, and a finite Discussion rate of increase lambda (λ) of 1.224, i.e., a Muskox abundance trends 22% change per individual per year. We sug- Previous surveys of southern Ellesmere Island gest that by 2015, muskox abundance had re- have used different survey aircraft, methodolo- covered from the weather events of 2002 and gies, and survey areas. The disparate method- 2005. Population growth would be supported ologies and survey areas complicate any com- by the 2015 calf percentage (22%). Interest- parison of the estimates obtained, especially ingly, a 2014 helicopter survey (incomplete to determine long-term population trends for due to weather) of the same area observed 33 muskoxen and Peary caribou in the southern groups and included 311 adults and 42 calves, Ellesmere Island area. However, a review of which suggests the proportion of late-winter past survey results is still warranted and large calves may have been about 16% (Government changes in density are still be apparent (Table of Nunavut, unpublished data). Alternately, the 4). Although some previous surveys also used increased population size in 2015 may have re- strip transects, our nearest neighbor difference sulted if muskoxen moved into the survey area variance reduced CV and SE, particularly use- from adjacent populations on central Ellesmere ful when variance is expected to be high, as in Island or Devon Island. surveys with relatively few observations for low density populations, or where reducing vari- Peary caribou abundance trends ance through effective stratification may not be Peary caribou have apparently not been abun- possible due to logistics or lack of information. dant on southern Ellesmere Island in recent In 2005, southern Ellesmere Island from times, although there are places where caribou Vendom Fiord south, the same area in this sur- can be reliably found, including at Sor Fiord vey, was flown with an adaptive sampling tech- and the Bjorne Peninsula (Iviq HTA pers. nique, with east-west transects spaced 5 km comm.). Previous surveys have mostly relied on apart, tightened to 2.5 km where caribou or extrapolation and minimum counts (Table 5). caribou sign was detected (Jenkins et al., 2011). The few caribou sightings resulted in a large In addition to the very low proportion of variance for our 2015 estimate of 183 ± 128 SE 10-month old muskox calves in the population Peary caribou. The error is too broad to make (2%), observers reported 40 muskox carcasses a determination of population trend since the and 2 adult muskoxen near death (Campbell, 2005 estimate of 109-442 caribou (95% CI). It 2006; Jenkins et al., 2011). Residents of Grise remains unknown whether Peary caribou in the Fiord recall ground-fast ice in winter 2005 and region have increased, decreased or remained suggested rain in winter 2002 (Taylor, 2005) stable. More sophisticated analyses incorporat-

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 105 CV 0.702 0.830 0.784 1.106 0.830 0.747 0.845 1.065 0.830 0.716 0.878 0.830 0.670 SE 136 43 143 129 43 136 12 122 42 129 113 42 121

Ŷ) ( Var Var 18622 1838 20460 16537 1838 18375 156 14836 1838 16830 12806 1838 14644 Deviations from sample mean Error Sum of Squares 7.247 3.172 9.193 3.172 0.067 14.800 3.172 15.240 3.172 CV 0.618 0.874 0.702 1.103 0.874 0.750 0.793 0.768 0.874 0.550 0.637 0.874 0.519 SE 120 45 128 128 45 136 13 88 45 100 82 45 94

Ŷ) ( Var Var 14405 2036 16441 16458 2035 18493 168 7717 2036 9921 6745 2036 8781 Nearest-neighbor-difference Error Sum of Squares 5.606 3.513 9.150 3.513 0.072 7.699 3.513 8.027 3.513

Density, Density, R̂ 0.006 0.034 0.008 0.009 0.034 0.012 0.001 0.050 0.034 0.008 0.038 0.034 0.037

Ŷ Estimate, 131 52 183 130 52 181 15 114 52 181 129 52 181 Count, y 26 10 36 26 10 36 3 23 10 36 26 10 36 ) 2 Surveyed area z (km 4225 296 4521 2792 296 3088 3768 457 296 4521 685 296 981 ) 2 Stratum area Z (km 21260 1531 22791 13921 1531 15452 18988 2272 1531 22791 3397 1531 4928 Stratum All Graham Total Low Elev Graham Total Main Bjorne Graham Total IV Bjorne Graham Total Table 3. Calculations following Cochran (1977) for a systematic survey and ratio estimator for Peary caribou on southern Ellesmere Island. Variance was calculated 3. Calculations following Cochran (1977) for a systematic survey and ratio estimator Peary caribou on southern Ellesmere Island. Variance Table based on sample mean and nearest-neighbor to account for serial correlation in the data.

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 106 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Figure 3. Observations of Peary caribou and muskoxen on southern Ellesmere, Graham, and Buckingham islands during the March 2015 aerial survey. Flight transects are labelled by number. ing uncertainty in the estimates have not been Distribution - muskox undertaken, but the large uncertainty in both In the past, concentrations of muskoxen have estimates would likely still make trend determi- occurred along Baumann Fiord, Sor and Sten- nation tenuous. However, the pattern observed kul Fiords, the flat plain along Vendom Fiord, by hunters in Grise Fiord over several decades north of Muskox Fiord and along Norwegian seems to suggest a persistent, relatively stable, Bay, and at Fram Fiord (Iviq HTA, pers. comm.; low abundance of Peary caribou in the study Tener, 1963; Riewe, 1973; Case & Ellsworth, area. 1991; Jenkins et al., 2011). During the 2015 The abundance estimate from this survey survey, muskoxen were also observed in these suggests that the south Ellesmere, Graham, areas. The situation was similar on previous sur- and Buckingham island area currently supports vey attempts in April and August 2014 for the approximately 1.3% of the estimated global areas covered by those surveys (Government Peary caribou population of 13,200 adults of Nunavut, unpubl. data). The most notable (COSEWIC, 2015). The study area is part of change in distribution was the relative lack of the Eastern Queen Elizabeth Islands group of muskoxen on Graham and Buckingham islands Peary caribou, an island group which accounts in 2015 as compared to the most recent 2005 for about a quarter of the global Peary caribou survey by Jenkins et al. (2011). In contrast to population (COSEWIC, 2015). 2005, when three groups totaling 12 muskoxen were observed, in 2015 we saw only two groups

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 107 - 2011 2011; Govern 2011; et al., et al., Reference Freeman, 1971 Riewe, 1973 Riewe, 1973 Riewe, 1973 Case & Ellsworth, 1991 Jenkins ment of Nunavut, unpubl. data Jenkins Government of Nunavut, unpubl. data Government of Nunavut, unpubl. data This survey - - Method Minimum count/ extrapolation ground survey Minimum count ground survey Reconnaissance/ minimum count Reconnaissance/ minimum count Fixed-width strip transect Minimum count ground survey Line transect dis tance sampling Incomplete survey (distance sampling) Incomplete sur vey (fixed-width strip transect) Fixed-width strip transect Aircraft Snowmobile Snowmobile Fixed wing (DeHavilland Twin Otter; flown at 1500-2500’) Fixed wing (DeHavilland Twin Otter) Helicopter (Bell 206B) Snowmobile Helicopter (Bell 206LR) Helicopter (Bell 206LR) Fixed wing (DeHavilland Twin Otter) Fixed wing (DeHavilland Twin Otter) Percent calves 12.5 16 17.3 15.6 23.9 22.1 SE 285 312- 670 (95% CI) 602 Abundance Estimate 520 655 2020 456 (1+ yr olds) 3200 Total Ob- Total served 520 365 447 606 839 56 273 311 88 1146 Dates Mar 1966- Aug 1967 May 8-28 May 8, May 15 Jul 4-7 Jul 17- 23 May 8-16 May 4-30 Apr 12- 24 Aug 13, Aug 15 Mar 19-26 Year 1967 1973 1973 1973 1989 2005 2005 2014 2014 2015 - Area Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord, Graham Vendom Island Bjorne Peninsula, Sor Fiord to Stenkul Fiord, Fiord Vendom Bjorne Peninsula and Fiord shores of Vendom Bjorne Peninsula, Sor Fiord to Stenkul Fiord, and Buckingham, Gra ham, and Hoved islands Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord Vendom Bjorne Peninsula, Sor Fiord to Stenkul Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord, Graham Vendom Island Ellesmere south coast and south of Sor Stenkul fiords Ellesmere south coast and south of Sor Stenkul fiords Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord, Graham Vendom Island Table 4. Summary of previous surveys for muskoxen in the southern Ellesmere Island area. Table

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 108 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 totaling three muskoxen. Part of this discrep- Percentage calves: muskoxen ancy is explained by the adaptive sampling pro- Freeman (1970) developed a preliminary popu- tocol used in 2005; transects were flown 2.5 km lation model that suggested 10.5% late-winter apart on Graham and Buckingham islands in calves would be required to balance natural 2005 and 5 km apart in 2015. mortality in the muskox populations in this region. Only two newborn calves were seen Distribution – Peary caribou on the May 2005 survey (Campbell, 2006; Riewe (1973) noted some caribou on Graham Jenkins et al., 2011), but calf percentage was Island, between Sor and Stenkul fiords, and indicative of a stable or increasing population on the Bjorne Peninsula. Case & Ellsworth by 2014 and 2015, based on Freeman’s (1970) (1991) described caribou observations as scat- late-winter muskox calf percentages. The April tered across the study area, but in 2005 there 2014 (16% calves; Government of Nunavut, were some obvious areas of higher density on unpubl. data) and March 2015 (22% calves) Graham and Buckingham islands, northern survey results suggest good to high recruitment Bjorne Peninsula, and southeast of Okse Bay respectively, and are similar to previously ob- (Jenkins et al., 2011). In 2014 and 2015, we served percentages for the area (Table 4). saw caribou in the same areas, as well as a group Observations were too few for conclusions on northern Vendom Fiord. We did not detect about Peary caribou calf percentages. any caribou along the south coast of Ellesmere Island, although in the 1950s and 1960s they Group sizes: muskoxen & Peary caribou were found in the area of Craig Harbour, Fram Muskox groups are largest early in the spring Fiord, and King Edward Point, and occasion- and smaller as summer progresses (Freeman, ally seen there into the 1990s (IQ in Taylor, 1971; Gray, 1973), with winter groups (includ- 2005). We only saw one set of tracks south of ing April and May) about 1.7 times larger than Piliravijuk Bay, although caribou have been summer groups (range 1.2-2.3 times larger, found there previously (IQ in Taylor, 2005; based on typical group size where Gi is size Iviq HTA pers. comm.). Grise Fiord residents of the ith group; Heard, 1992). Heard (1992) were also surprised that we did not see caribou noted that muskox group size is not generally at the head of Goose Fiord or Muskox Fiord, related to their density. However, the muskox since they usually occur there. Similar to the group size in May 2005, which averaged 2.7 muskoxen, there was a scarcity of caribou on muskoxen (2.4-3.0, 95% CI), was much small- Graham and Buckingham islands in 2015 when er than group sizes encountered in April 2014 only two groups totaling ten caribou were seen, and March 2015, or previously in 1966-67 (10 versus the 18 groups totaling 50 animals in muskoxen per group; Freeman, 1971). One 2005. Again the difference may be partially ex- possible explanation may be that the severe plained by the adaptive sampling protocol used 2005 ground-fast ice event and subsequent die- in 2005. Further, it is well known that caribou off fragmented the groups and normal group move between islands in regular seasonal move- structure was not observed during the 2005 ments or when conditions force them (Miller, survey. 2002; Miller et al., 2005; IQ in Taylor, 2005), Ferguson (1991) suggested that caribou and they do move between Graham Island and groups are largest in August and smaller in the Bjorne Peninsula (IQ in Taylor, 2005; Iviq late winter. Fischer & Duncan (1976) noted HTA, pers. comm.). that groups across the Arctic islands averaged 4.0 caribou in late winter, 2.8 caribou in early

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 109 - - 2011; 2011; 2011 et al., et al., Reference 1963 Tener, Riewe, 1973 Riewe, 1973 Riewe, 1973 Case & Ellsworth, 1991 Jenkins Government of Nu navut, unpubl. data Jenkins Government of Nu navut, unpubl. data This survey - Method Extrapolation/ expert opinion (most were north of our study area; only 11 were seen at the head of Baumann Fiord) Minimum count Reconnaissance/ mini mum count Minimum count/ expert opinion Fixed-width strip transect Minimum count ground survey Line transect distance sampling Incomplete survey (fixed- width strip transect) Fixed-width strip transect - - - - Aircraft Fixed wing (Piper Super Cub) Snowmobile Fixed wing (De Havilland Twin Otter; flown at 1500-2500’) Fixed wing (De Havilland Twin Otter) Helicopter (Bell 206B) Snowmobile Helicopter (Bell 206LR) Fixed wing (De Havilland Twin Otter) Fixed wing (De Havilland Twin Otter) - Per cent calves 11 5.5 22.2 SE 31 109- 442 (95% CI) 128 - Abun dance Estimate 200 100 89 219 (1+ yr olds) 183 - Total Total Ob served 67 17 67 45 17 57 8 38 Dates Jul 30-Aug 11 May 8-28 May 8, 15 July 4-7 Jul 17-23 May 8-16 May 4-30 Aug 13, Aug 15 Mar 19-26 Year 1961 1973 1973 1973 1989 2005 2005 2014 2015 - Area Ellesmere Island, exclud ing parts of the south, east and northwestern coasts (due to weather) Bjorne Peninsula, Sor Fiord to Stenkul Fiord, Fiord Vendom Bjorne Peninsula and Fiord shores of Vendom Bjorne Peninsula, Sor Fiord to Stenkul Fiord, and Buckingham, Graham, and Hoved islands Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord Vendom Bjorne Peninsula, Sor Fiord to Stenkul Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord, Graham Vendom Island Ellesmere south coast and south of Sor and Stenkul fiords Ellesmere Island south of Baumann Fiord and Fiord, Graham Vendom Island Table 5. Summary of previous surveys for Peary caribou in the southern Ellesmere Island area. Table

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 110 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 summer, and 8.8 caribou in mid-summer. ment. Population monitoring is difficult and The scarcity of observations during any of the infrequent across much of Peary caribou survey attempts makes it difficult to evalu- range. Surveys like this one fill important ate any seasonal effect of group size for Peary knowledge gaps, but more information on caribou. Still, our average group size of 2.6- ecological relationships, population drivers, 6.9 caribou (95% CI) is similar to the late and response to disturbance will be needed winter group sizes encountered by Fischer & to ensure the continued persistence and sus- Duncan (1976). tainable use of Peary caribou as part of the arctic landscape. Management implications The survey conducted by Case & Ellsworth Acknowledgements (1991) in July 1989 was in response to obser- Survey observers: Eepa Ootoovak, Adrian vations by Grise Fiord residents of declining Kakkee, Josh Kilabuk, Mark Akeeagok, Jay- caribou populations and increasing muskox petee Akeeagok, Etuangat Akeeagok, Frankie populations, and a similar dynamic may be Noah, Olaf Killiktee, Simon Singoorie, Im- manifesting in the south Ellesmere Island area ooshie Nutaraqjuk, Aksakjuk Ningiuk, Jop- today. Although there was a crash in muskox ee Kiguktak, Frank Holland, Jon Neely. Air- abundance in the early 2000s, the muskox craft: Universal Helicopters (Garland Pope, population has increased over the last dec- Darryl Hefler) and Kenn Borek Air (Tim ade. The Peary caribou population has not Hall, Scott Darroch, Terry Welsh, Sébastien followed the same trajectory. An inverse rela- Trudel, Rob Bergeron, John Sidwell). Thanks tionship between caribou and muskox abun- to the Iviq HTA and Hamlet of Grise Fiord dance is widely accepted by many communi- for their guidance and support. Funding for ties where Peary caribou and muskoxen are this work was provided by the Nunavut De- sympatric (Iviq HTA and Resolute Bay HTA, partment of Environment Wildlife Research per. comm.; IQ in Taylor, 2005). However, Section and the Nunavut Wildlife Research a mechanism explaining this pattern remains Trust (Project 2-14-02). The Polar Conti- elusive and elsewhere both species coexist at nental Shelf Program provided in-kind logis- relatively high densities, e.g., on Bathurst and tical support (Project 314-14 and 321-15). Melville islands (Davison & Williams, 2012; The work was completed under Government Anderson, 2014). of Nunavut Wildlife Research Section per- In September 2015, the Government of mit 2014-014. Two anonymous reviewers Nunavut updated wildlife regulations and, provided helpful feedback in preparing this working with co-management partners, re- manuscript. moved the quota on muskoxen in Muskox Management Unit MX-01, Ellesmere Island, increasing harvest opportunities. Whether lifting harvest restrictions will reduce muskox abundance remains to be seen, since to date harvest has been light and limited to areas ac- cessible from Grise Fiord (Anderson, 2017). Peary caribou are currently listed as En- dangered under the Canadian Species at Risk Act, and a Recovery Strategy is in develop-

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 111 References Muskoxen of the Qikiqtaaluk Region, 2013- Anderson, M. 2017. Trends in high arctic 2018. – Nunavut Department of Environ- muskox (Ovibos moschatus) harvest, 1990- ment, Iqaluit, Nunavut. 20pp. 2015. – Rangifer 37(1): 47-58. https://doi. Committee on the Status of Endangered org/10.7557/2.37.1.4182 Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC). 2015. Anderson, M. 2014. Distribution and abun- COSEWIC Assessment and Status report on dance of Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus the Peary Caribou Rangifer tarandus pearyi pearyi) and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Canada. – COSEWIC, Ottawa, Ontario. on the Bathurst Island Group, May 2013. 92pp. – Status Report, Nunavut Department of Ferguson, M.A.D. 1991. Peary caribou and Environment, Wildlife Research Section, Ig- muskoxen on Bathurst Island, Northwest loolik, Nunavut. 39pp. Territories, from 1961-1981. – File Report Campbell, M. 2006. Estimating Peary cari- 88, Northwest Territories Department of bou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) and muskox Renewable Resources, Yellowknife, North- (Ovibos moschatus) numbers, composition west Territories. 54pp. and distributions on the high arctic islands Fischer, C.A. & Duncan, E.A. 1976. Ecologi- of Nunavut. – Status report 19, Nunavut cal studies of caribou and muskoxen in the Department of Environment, Wildlife Re- Arctic Archipelago and northern Keewatin. search Section, Arviat, Nunavut. 12 pp. – Report prepared for Polar Gas Project by Campbell, M., Boulanger, J., Lee, D.S., Du- Renewable Resources Consulting Services. mond, M. & McPherson, J. 2012. Calving 194pp. ground abundance estimates of the Beverly Freeman, M.M.R. 1970. Productivity studies and Ahiak subpopulations of barren-ground of high arctic muskoxen. – Arctic Circular caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) – 20: 58-65. June 2011. – Technical Summary, Nunavut Freeman, M.M.R. 1971. Population charac- Department of Environment, Wildlife Re- teristics of musk-oxen in the Jones Sound search Section, Arviat, Nunavut. 111pp. region of the Northwest Territories. – Jour- Case, R. & Ellsworth, T. 1991. Distribution nal of Wildlife Management 35 (1): 103-108. and abundance of muskoxen and Peary cari- https://doi.org/10.2307/3799877 bou on southern Ellesmere Island, NWT, Gray, D.R. 1973. Social organization and July 1989. – Manuscript Report 41, North- behavior of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) west Territories Department of Renewable on Bathurst Island, NWT. – PhD Thesis. Resources, Yellowknife, Northwest Territo- University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta. ries. 23pp. 212pp. Cochran, W.G. 1977. Sampling techniques. Heard, D. 1992. The effects of wolf predation 3rd ed. Wiley, New York, NY. 428pp. and snow cover on muskox group size. – Department of Environment, in collabora- The American Naturalist 139 (1): 190-204. tion with Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. (NTI) https://doi.org/10.1086/285320 Wildlife, Resolute Bay Hunters and Trap- Jenkins, D., Campbell, M., Hope, G., Goorts, pers Association, Ikajutit Hunters and J. & McLoughlin, P. 2011. Recent trends Trappers Organization (Arctic Bay), Iviq in abundance of Peary Caribou (Rangifer Hunters and Trappers Association (Grise tarandus pearyi) and muskoxen (Ovibos mos- Fiord) & the Qikiqtaaluk Wildlife Board. chatus) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 2013. Management Plan for the High Arctic Nunavut. – Wildlife Report No. 1, Nunavut

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This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com 113 This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License 114 Editor in Chief: Birgitta Åhman, Technical Editor: Eva Wiklund and Graphic Design: H-G Olofsson, www.rangiferjournal.com Rangifer, 37, (1) 2017