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Bunbury-Geographe Regional Land Supply Assessment Report DRAFT for STAKEHOLDER REVIEW APRIL 2021

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Bunbury-Geographe Regional Land Supply Assessment Report DRAFT for STAKEHOLDER REVIEW APRIL 2021 URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Bunbury-Geographe Regional Land Supply Assessment Report DRAFT FOR STAKEHOLDER REVIEW APRIL 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF COUNTRY The Bunbury-Geographe sub-region is a contemporary description of portion of the ancestral lands of the Binjareb, Wilman, Wardandi and Ganeang Noongar people. The Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage acknowledges the First Australians as the traditional owners of these lands and pays respect to their Elders, both past and present. The Noongar (Koorah, Nitja, Boordahwan) (Past, Present, Future) Recognition Act 2016 recognises the Noongar people as the traditional owners of the Noongar lands. The Act recognises the living cultural, spiritual, familial and social relationship that the Noongar people have with the Noongar lands; and the significant and unique contribution that the Noongar people have made, are making, and will continue to make, to the heritage, cultural identity, community and economy of the State. The Act includes the following Noongar recognition statement: Noonakoort moort nitja burranginge noongar boodja Noonakoort moort kwomba Djinunge nitja mungarrt — koorah Noonakoort moort yirra yarkinje kwomba noongar boodja Koorah — nitja — boordahwan Noonakoort moort yarkinje noongar boodja Nyidiung koorah barminje noonakoort moort Wierrnbirt domberrinje Noonakoort moort koort boodja Nitja gnulla moorditj karrl boodja BUNBURY-GEOGRAPHE REGIONAL LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT DRAFT FOR STAKEHOLDER REVIEW Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Regional land supply assessments and the Urban Development Program 1.2 Key points 2 Geography 2.1 Regions, sub-regions and local government areas 2.2 Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2.2.1 Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) and Significant Urban Area (SUA) 3 Population 3.1 Population profile 3.2 Population growth 3.3 Population projections 4 Economy and employment 4.1 Labour force 4.2 Industry of employment and occupation 4.3 Income distribution 4.4 Employment self-sufficiency 4.5 Employment self-containment 4.6 Socio-economic indexes for areas 4.7 Economic demand drivers 5 Residential land and dwellings 5.1 Land zoned for residential purposes under the Greater Bunbury Region Scheme 5.2 Land zoned for residential purposes under local planning schemes 5.3 Residential subdivision activity 5.4 Residential building approvals 5.5 Small area dwelling completions 5.6 Residential lot and dwelling supply 5.7 Adequacy of residential land and dwelling supply 5.8 Background infill 6 Rural living land 6.1 Land zoned for rural living purposes under local planning schemes 6.2 Rural living subdivision activity 6.3 Rural living land and dwelling supply 6.3.1 Rural living development outlook; Shire of Capel 6.3.2 Rural living development outlook; Shire of Collie 6.3.3 Rural living development outlook; Shire of Dardanup 6.3.4 Rural living development outlook; Shire of Donnybrook-Balingup 7 Industrial land Page 2 of 91 BUNBURY-GEOGRAPHE REGIONAL LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT DRAFT FOR STAKEHOLDER REVIEW 7.1 Land zoned for industrial purposes under the Greater Bunbury Region Scheme 7.2 Land zoned for industrial purposes under local planning schemes 7.3 Industrial subdivision activity 7.4 Industrial building approvals 7.5 Industrial floor space 7.6 Industrial development outlook 7.6.1 Light and general industry 7.6.2 Strategic industry 8 Commercial land 8.1 Land zoned Regional Centre under the Greater Bunbury Region Scheme 8.2 Land zoned for commercial purposes under local planning schemes 8.3 Commercial subdivision activity 8.4 Commercial building approvals 8.5 Commercial floor space 8.6 Commercial development outlook 8.6.1 Greater Bunbury 8.6.2 Shire of Collie 8.6.3 Shire of Donnybrook-Balingup 9 Service infrastructure 9.1 Water 9.2 Wastewater 9.3 Energy 9.3.1 Electricity 9.3.2 Gas 9.4 Transport 9.4.1 Roads 9.4.2 Rail 9.4.3 Port Abbreviations and acronyms Page 3 of 91 BUNBURY-GEOGRAPHE REGIONAL LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT DRAFT FOR STAKEHOLDER REVIEW List of figures and tables Figure 1: South West Region Figure 2: ASGS ABS structures Figure 3: ASGS non ABS structures Figure 4: Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) and Significant Urban Area (SUA) Figure 5: Age-sex population structure (2016 Census) - Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Figure 6: Population highlights - Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Figure 7: Estimated resident population (ERP) (2001-2019) – Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Figure 8: Annual change rates of ERP (2002-2019) - Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Figure 9: Components of population change (2016-17 to 2018-19) - Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Figure 10: Components of population change by SA2 (2016-17 to 2018-19) - Bunbury-Geographe sub- region Figure 11: WA Tomorrow forecast population growth 2016-2031 - Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Figure 12: Labour force by LGA; December 2010 quarter to March 2020 quarter Figure 13: Labour force status by LGA, Rest of WA (GCCSA) and WA; 2016 Census Figure 14: Top five industries of employment (4 Digit Level) by LGA, Rest of WA (GCCSA) and WA; 2016 Census Figure 15: Top five occupations (4 Digit Level) by LGA, Rest of WA (GCCSA) and WA; 2016 Census Figure 16: Preliminary approvals; Residential Figure 17: Final approvals; residential Figure 18: Preliminary approvals; Rural residential and special residential Figure 19: Final approvals; Rural residential and special residential Table 1: Settlement hierarchy of the Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Table 3: ASGS component statistical areas - Bunbury-Geographe sub-region Table 4: Population density (persons per square kilometre) by SA2 Table 5: WA Tomorrow forecast population growth 2016-2031 Table 6: Population scenarios considered by the draft Bunbury-Geographe Sub-regional Strategy Table 7: Median weekly household income; 2016 Census Table 8: Employment self-sufficiency by LGA, Rest of WA (GCCSA) and WA; 2016 Census Table 9: Employment self-containment by LGA, Rest of WA (GCCSA) and WA; 2016 Census Table 10: Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD); SEIFA 2016 Table 11: Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage (IRSAD); SEIFA 2016 Table 12: Index of Economic Resources (IER); SEIFA 2016 Table 13: Index of Education and Occupation (IEO); SEIFA 2016 Table 14: Land zoned urban and urban deferred under the Greater Bunbury Region Scheme; 2014 to 2019 Table 15: Urbanised and non-urbanised land within the Greater Bunbury Region Scheme area Table 16: Existing land uses in urbanised areas Table 17: Existing land uses in non-urbanised areas Table 18: Development status of lots on land zoned for residential purposes; 30 June 2020 Table 19: Small area dwelling completions Table 20: Estimated residential lot/dwelling supply for greenfield, major infill and vacant lots Table 21: Adequacy of residential land and dwelling supply Table 22: Additional dwelling potential; City of Bunbury Table 23: Additional dwelling potential; Shire of Capel Table 24: Additional dwelling potential; Shire of Collie Table 25: Additional dwelling potential; Shire of Dardanup Table 26: Additional dwelling potential; Shire of Donnybrook-Balingup Table 27: Additional dwelling potential; Shire of Harvey Table 28: Development status of lots on land zoned for rural living purposes; 30 June 2020 Page 4 of 91 BUNBURY-GEOGRAPHE REGIONAL LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT DRAFT FOR STAKEHOLDER REVIEW Table 29: Land zoned industrial and industrial deferred under the Greater Bunbury Region Scheme; 31 October 2020 Table 30: Development status of lots on land zoned for industrial purposes; 30 June 2020 Table 31: Preliminary approvals; Industrial Table 32: Final approvals; Industrial Table 33: Industrial building approvals; City of Bunbury Table 34: Industrial building approvals; Shire of Capel Table 35: Industrial building approvals; Shire of Collie Table 36: Industrial building approvals; Shire of Dardanup Table 37: Industrial building approvals; Shire of Donnybrook-Balingup Table 38: Industrial building approvals; Shire of Harvey Table 39: Floor space/net lettable area on industrial complexes by planning land use category; 2018; Table 40: Development status of lots on land zoned for commercial purposes; 30 June 2020 Table 41: Preliminary approvals; Commercial Table 42: Final approvals; Commercial Table 43: Commercial building approvals; City of Bunbury Table 44: Commercial building approvals; Shire of Capel Table 45: Commercial building approvals; Shire of Collie Table 46: Commercial building approvals; Shire of Dardanup Table 47: Commercial building approvals; Shire of Donnybrook-Balingup Table 48: Commercial building approvals; Shire of Harvey Page 5 of 91 BUNBURY-GEOGRAPHE REGIONAL LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT DRAFT FOR STAKEHOLDER REVIEW 1 Introduction 1.1 Regional land supply assessments and the Urban Development Program Regional land supply assessments measure the stocks of land for future residential, industrial and commercial uses. It provides context for the land use planning and infrastructure provision required to meet demand across selected regional centres in Western Australia. Regional land supply assessments are prepared by the Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage (the Department) on behalf of the Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) to fulfil the requirements for tracking and monitoring land supply, as outlined in section 14 of the Planning and Development Act 2005. The role of WAPC include monitoring and forecasting land supply throughout WA, developing strategies for the timely supply of affordable residential land, and researching and developing planning methods and models relating to land use
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