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Challenging Times Still Ahead 有挑战性的时期还在将来

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Challenging Times Still Ahead 有挑战性的时期还在将来 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) Noah Hudson 究 (86755) 2397 6684 Equity Research 公司报告： 新濠博亚 (MLCO US) [email protected] 19 November 2020 [Table_Summary] Challenging Times Still Ahead 有挑战性的时期还在将来 Melco's 3Q2020 normalized adjusted property EBITDA loss was US$89 Rating:[Table_Rank ] Sell 公 million, down 120.3% yoy but up 50.0% qoq. 3Q2020 total revenue was Maintained 司 greater than expected as the Company took market share in Macau. For Macau operations only, casino net revenue was US$149 million, down 90.2% 评级： 卖出 (维持) 报 yoy, which was better than the Macau sector gross gaming revenue (GGR) decline of 93.1% during the quarter. 告 6[Table_Price-18m TP目标价] : US$14.00 Company Report We expect Melco's adjusted property EBITDA to turn to positive in Revised from 原目标价: US$10.40 4Q2020, and forecast 2020-2022 adjusted property EBITDA of -US$139 million, US$743 million and US$1.100 billion, respectively. We forecast ADR price ADR价格: US$18.450 net losses of US$1.331 billion and US$295 million in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and positive net income of US$33 million in 2022. We forecast 2020-2022 fully diluted earnings per ADS (EPADS) of -US$2.189, -US$0.620 Stock performance and US$0.070, respectively. With the uncertainty brought by the COVID-19 股价表现 pandemic, Melco's management did not give an estimate on expected [Table_QuotePic] opening dates for Studio City Phase 2 or for City of Dreams Mediterranean. 60 % change In the meantime, City of Dreams Manila continues to operate at very limited 50 40 capacity, and Melco's operations in Cyprus have been forced to close at night 30 证 due to government imposed curfews. 20 券 告 10 We increase our target price from US$10.40 to US$14.00; maintain 0 报 "Sell" investment rating. Our target price is equivalent to 16.2x and 10.4x 研 (10) 2021 and 2022 EV/adjusted EBITDA, respectively, and is an 18.0% discount (20) 究 究 to our DCF derived NAV per share of US$17.07. (30) 报 (40) 研 新濠博亚 2020 年第 3 季度标准化赢率下经调整物业 EBITDA 亏损为 8,900 万美元，同比 (50) 告 下降 120.3%但环比上升 50.0%。由于公司在澳门抢占了市场份额，2020 年第 3 季度总收 (60) 券 Nov-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 入好于预期。仅就澳门业务而言，赌场净收入为 1.49 亿美元，同比下降 90.2%，好于澳 Equity Research Report NASDAQ COMP Index Melco Resorts & Ent. 门全行业博彩总收入在该季度 93.1%的下跌。 证 [Tab 我们预计新濠博亚经调整物业 EBITDA 在 2020 第 4 季度转正，并预计 2020 至 2022 年 经调整 EBITDA 分别为-1.39 亿美元、7.43 亿美元和 11 亿美元。我们预计 2020 年和 2021 Change[Table_PriceChange] in ADR Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y le_I 年净亏损分别为 13.31 亿美元和 2.95 亿美元，2022 年则为 3,300 万美元的净利润。我们 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 预计 2020 至 2022 年每股美国存托凭证全面摊薄收益分别为-2.189 美元、-0.620 美元和 Abs. % nfo1 12.2 (11.8) (18.6) 0.070 美元。由于新冠肺炎疫情带来的不确定性，新濠博亚管理层并没有给出新濠影汇二 绝对变动 % 博 ] 期或者地中海新濠天地预计开业日期的预测。此外，马尼拉新濠天地继续维持有限水平的 Rel. % to NASDAQ Index 13.0 (18.8) (57.5) 相对纳指变动 % 彩 Sector 营运，而新濠博亚在塞浦路斯的物业也因政府实施宵禁而被迫晚上关闭。 Avg. ADR price(US$) 16.7 17.3 17.9 行 平均股价（美元） 我们将公司目标价由 10.40 美元上调至 14.00 美元并维持“卖出”的投资评级。我们的目 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 业 标价分别相当于 2021 年 16.2 倍和 2022 年 10.4 倍的 EV/经调整 EBITDA，并 相对我们运 Gaming 用折现现金流方法得出的每股估值 17.07 美元有 18.0%的折让。 [Tab le_I [Table_ Year End Turnover Net Profit Earnings/ADR Earnings/ADR PER BV/ADR PBR DP ADR Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每份 ADR 净利 每份 ADR 净利变 市盈率 每份 ADR 市净率 每份 ADR 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) (△ %)动 (x) 净资产(US$) (x) (US$)股息 (%) (%) ] 2018A 5,189 340 0.678 (4.4) 27.2 4.575 4.0 0.560 3.0 13.1 新 2019A 5,737 373 0.779 14.9 23.7 5.093 3.6 0.640 3.5 15.8 濠中 2020F 1,554 (1,331) (2.787) (457.8) n.a. 1.524 12.1 0.000 0.0 (84.0) 博 3,292 (296) (0.620) n.a. n.a. 1.223 15.1 0.000 0.0 (45.1) 外 2021F 亚 2022F 4,259 33 0.070 n.a. 263.6 1.657 11.1 0.000 0.0 4.9 运 [Table_BaseData]ADR in issue (m) 总 ADR 数 (m) 477.0 Major shareholder 大股东 Melco Intl. Development Ltd. 51.3% 输 Market cap. (US$ m) 市值 (US$ m) 8,800.7 Free float(%) 自由流通比率(%) 37.5 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数(‘000) 3,331.0 FY20 Net gearing (%) FY20 净负债/股东资金 (%) 428.7 52 Weeks high/low (US$) 52 周高/低 (US$) 25.220 / 10.810 FY20 Est. NAV (US$) FY20 每 ADR 估值（美元） 17.1 Source : the Company, Guotai Junan International. Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) Melco Resorts & Entertainment Seethe last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) 3Q2020 RESULTS ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Melco Resorts & Entertainment's ("Melco", or the "Company") 3Q2020 total revenue was greater than expected as the Company took market share in Macau. For 3Q2020, Melco’s total casino net revenue was US$171 million, down 86.3% yoy; for Macau operations only, casino net revenue was US$149 million, down 90.2% yoy, which was better than the Macau sector gross gaming revenue (GGR) decline of 93.1% during the quarter. Total revenue was US$213 million, down 85.2% yoy. Total non-casino revenue was US$42 million, down 78.6% yoy, which helped partially offset the sharper declines in gaming revenue. The decrease in total revenue was mostly due to the sector decline resulted from COVID-19 travel restrictions which continued 19 November 2020 to have a significant negative impact on Macau visitation and gaming revenue. The negative impact was partially offset during the quarter with the partial resumption of Melco's casino operations in Manila and Cyprus, as well as the resumption of visa issuance to mainland Chinese under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) which started in late Sept. Melco’s VIP turnover from its Macau casinos was US$2.35 billion, down 90.2% yoy, which was better than the Macau sector VIP GGR decline of 92.5% yoy during the quarter. Melco's Macau only VIP gross win decreased by 88.7% yoy to US$78 million, benefitting from a somewhat higher-than-normal VIP win rate of 3.30% (vs. expected range of 2.85%-3.15%). Including Philippines and Cyprus operations, Melco’s total VIP turnover decreased 89.0% yoy to US$2.91 billion, and VIP gross win decreased 87.0% yoy to US$93 million, with VIP win rate of 3.18%, which was just slightly above the normal expected range of 2.85%-3.15%. ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Melco’s mass market (tables and slots) GGR from its Macau operations was US$71 million, down 91.5% yoy, which was better than the Macau mass sector GGR decline of 93.6% yoy during the quarter. Melco’s total mass market GGR was US$127 million, down 87.1% yoy. Table-1: Melco's Financial Results (MLCO US) US$ mn (unless indicated otherwise) 3Q2019 4Q2019 1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 qoq yoy (% or ppt) (% or ppt) Gaming Net Revenue 1,242 1,249 713 148 171 15.7% (86.3%) Total Net Revenue 1,439 1,451 811 176 213 21.1% (85.2%) 新濠博亚 Shareholders' Net Income / (loss) 83 68 (364) (368) (332) 9.9% (498.6%) Earnings per ADR, basic (US$) 0.174 0.142 (0.761) (0.772) (0.695) 9.9% (500.3%) Earnings per ADR, diluted (US$) 0.173 0.142 (0.761) (0.173) (0.696) 302.3% (502.3%) Adjusted Property EBITDA* City of Dreams 233 210 61 (70) (49) 30.1% (121.1%) Altira Macau 14 14 (9) (19) (17) 13.3% (219.9%) Mocha Clubs 6 6 0 4 (0) (110.2%) (107.2%) City of Dreams Manila 50 54 30 (23) 5 n.a. (89.6%) Melco Resorts & Entertainment Studio City 106 117 (9) (42) (22) 48.7% (120.4%) Cyprus Operation 9 9 3 (6) 6 n.a. (26.3%) Total Adjusted Property EBITDA* 418 409.8 75.3 (156) (77) 50.9% (118.4%) Hold Normalized Adj. Property EBITDA 439 413 12 (178) (89) 50.0% (120.3%) Adjusted Property EBITDA Margin by Property* City of Dreams 29.6% 27.7% 13.0% (66.7%) (53.8%) 12.9 ppt (83.4) ppt Altira Macau 12.3% 12.0% (17.1%) (114.3%) (153.1%) (38.8) ppt (165.5) ppt Mocha Clubs 21.3% 20.5% 0.4% 19.0% (4.0%) (23.0) ppt (25.3) ppt City of Dreams Manila 38.2% 35.1% 26.8% (313.3%) 12.0% 325.3 ppt (26.2) ppt Studio City 31.5% 32.8% (6.9%) (388.5%) (70.6%) 317.9 ppt (102.1) ppt Cyprus Operation 32.0% 35.0% 17.0% (171.1%) 30.7% 201.8 ppt (1.3) ppt Total Adjusted Property EBITDA Margin* 29.1% 28.2% 9.3% (88.9%) (36.0%) 52.8 ppt (65.1) ppt Hold Normalized Adj. Property EBITDA Margin** 30.5% 28.5% 1.5% (101.2%) (41.8%) 59.4 ppt (72.3) ppt Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.
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