Climate Change May Trigger Broad Shifts in North America's Pacific
Climate Change May Trigger Broad Shifts in North America’s Pacific Coastal Rainforests DA DellaSala, Geos Institute, Ashland, OR, USA; Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA P Brandt, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya M Koopman, Geos Institute, Ashland, OR, USA J Leonard, Geos Institute, Ashland, OR, USA C Meisch, Leuphana University Lu¨neburg, Lu¨neburg, Germany P Herzog, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany P Alaback, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA MI Goldstein, University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, AK, USA S Jovan, Portland Forestry Sciences Lab, Portland, OR, USA A MacKinnon, BC Forest Service, Victoria, BC, Canada H von Wehrden, Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, Vienna, Austria ã 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Introduction 1 North America Pacific Coast Temperate Rainforest Region 2 Climate Data 2 Selection of Focal Species of Commercial Importance 3 Presence-only Modeling of Focal Species 4 Identifying Areas of Persistence, Gain, and Loss 4 Future Vegetation Stability, Intact Late-Seral Forests, and Current Protection Schemes 5 Climate Envelope Model Evaluation and Most Important Climate Parameters 5 Key Findings for Focal Species and Rainforest Assemblages 5 Shifts of Potential Species Distributions 5 Future State of the Ecosystem and Conservation Areas 7 Relevance to Climate Adaptation Strategies and Land Management 8 Shifting Potential Distributions as a Surrogate for Ecosystem Change 8 What Is Driving the Projected Shifts? 9 Model Limitations and Uncertainties 9 Rainforest Management Implications 9 Conclusions 10 Acknowledgments 10 References 10 Introduction Climate change threatens biodiversity and ecosystem integrity all over the globe (IPCC, 2014) and is already triggering pronounced shifts of species and ecosystems (Chen et al., 2011; Parmesan et al., 2000).
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