Party Politics and New Religious Movements in Weak States
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Deus ex Machina? New Religious Movements in African Politics Elizabeth Sheridan Sperber Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2017 © 2016 Elizabeth Sheridan Sperber All rights reserved ABSTRACT Deus ex Machina? New Religious Movements in African Politics Elizabeth Sheridan Sperber The majority of political science research on religion and politics examines how reli- gious variables influence political outcomes. Either implicitly or explicitly, this literature posits a one-way causal arrow from religion to politics. This dissertation argues that in many developing countries, however, religious and political change have been endogenous (interrelated). This is particularly true in weak states, where established religious groups mobilized to promote third wave democratization. In such contexts, politicians simultane- ously faced heightened political competition and established religious groups mobilized to demand accountable democratic governance after the Cold War. Under these conditions, I argue that politicians faced incentives to intervene in the religious sphere, and to actively propagate conversionary religious movements. In doing so, politicians sought to cultivate both moral authority and new constituencies that would compete with the established “watch dog” religious groups. I term this strategy “politicized propagation,” and argue that it is an important mechanism undergirding the endogenous relationship between religious and political change in the region. Although the theoretical argument advanced in this dissertation is general, I assess the argument empirically by focusing on the explosive rise of pentecostal (born again) Christianity in many, but not all, sub-Saharan African states in recent decades. To what extent have changes in the religious landscape — i.e., the rapid growth of pentecostal churches — occurred as a result of dynamic political conditions, and previous ‘church’- state relations (where the term church refers broadly to established religious institutions)? I engage these questions using targeted case studies and quantitative analysis. Specifically, I examine the degree to which a country’s pentecostal population share (in 2010) is predicted by that country’s (i) level of political competition during the 1990s and 2000s, and (ii) history of church-led mobilization for third wave democratization. The evidence reveals a strong and significant positive correlation between these political context variables and pentecostal population shares in the region. Moreover, through a controlled comparison of born again movements (i.e., charismatics and pentecostals), I am able to adjudicate between the appeal of born again doctrine, and the organizational features of pentecostal churches, such as decentralized network structures, and freedom from transnational oversight and rigid training requirements for leader, which make pentecostal churches more accessible and malleable allies than established, hierarchical religious institutions with significant transnational oversight. My findings refute alternative explanations for cross-national variation in the rise of pentecostalism, as well as the null hypothesis that political and religious change were not endogenous in sub-Saharan states. The latter half of the dissertation examines causal process mechanisms through a detailed study of church-state relations in Zambia, a predominantly Christian nation, where I collected quantitative and qualitative data in 2011 and 2013. My analyses of these data reveal that Zambia’s ruling party systematically targeted local pentecostal churches with cash grants, media permits, urban land plots, and political appointments between 1991 and 2011. Moreover, I find that the government was significantly more likely to allocate perks, such as lucrative tax breaks or church business licenses, in the lead up to national elections. This evidence provides strong suggestive support for the theory of politicized propagation. Zambians’ subjective perceptions of the relationship between different religious groups and the state are consistent with the theory of politicized propagation, but also belie the wide- ranging motivations of pentecostal converts. I conclude with reflections on the impact of politicized propagation, and the ability of the dissertation’s main argument to illuminate the politics of born again Christian movements in Latin America, as well as Islamic movements in sub-Saharan Africa. Contents List of Tables . iv ListofFigures ..........................................v Acknowledgements . vi Dedication . ix 1 A Theory of Politicized Propagation 1 1.1 Dual Renewalist Movements . 10 1.1.1 Defining features . 10 1.1.2 Origins and evolution of Christian movements in sub-Saharan Africa . 12 1.1.3 Political crises, mobilization and religious change . 18 1.2 Theoretical Frameworks, Revisited . 25 1.2.1 Conceptual intervention . 25 1.2.2 Substitute spirituality . 27 1.2.3 Politicized propagation . 29 1.2.4 Preliminary evidence . 32 1.3 Research Strategy . 33 1.3.1 Cross-national evidence . 35 i 1.3.2 Subnational evidence . 38 1.4 Scope Conditions and External Validity . 39 2 Endogeneity in Religion and Politics: Cross-National Evidence 42 2.1 Factors Affecting pentecostal Growth in sub-Saharan Africa . 44 2.1.1 Doctrine . 44 2.1.2 Social context . 45 2.1.3 Globalization and mass media . 46 2.1.4 Foreign evangelism . 47 2.2 Evaluating Explanations for Variation in pentecostal Population Share Across African Countries . 50 2.2.1 Data and methods . 51 2.2.2 Results . 56 2.2.3 Robustness . 59 2.3 Confounding Characteristics? The Role of Leaders’ Personal Identities . 64 2.3.1 Sincere pentecostal believers? . 64 2.3.2 Other individual-level factors of leaders . 69 2.4 Conclusion . 76 3 Church-State Relations in Zambia’s State Records 79 3.1 Case Selection . 82 3.2 Zambia’s Political Context . 85 3.3 Analysis of Government Records from Zambia . 90 3.4 Business Licenses . 92 ii 3.5 Tax Breaks . 96 3.5.1 The real value of PBO status . 97 3.5.2 Benefits for other religious institutions . 99 3.6 Local Government Appointments . 100 3.7 Media Licenses . 103 3.8 Exceptions that Prove the Rule: Zambia’s Third Term Debate . 107 4 Perceiving Politics and Religion: Qualitative Evidence from Zambia 113 4.1 In Leaders’ Own Words . 116 4.2 Political Gospels, According to Parishioners and Pastors . 131 4.2.1 Research strategy . 132 4.2.2 Findings . 137 4.3 Conclusion . 145 5 Conclusion: Politicized Propagation in Other Contexts 146 5.1 External Validity . 152 5.1.1 Latin America . 152 5.1.2 Islamic movements in Sub-Saharan Africa . 153 5.2 Broader Implications . 158 5.3 Conceptual Connections: Nationalism . 160 5.4 Closing Thoughts . 164 Bibliography 166 iii List of Tables 1.1 Comparing Pentecostalism and Charismatic Catholicism . 13 2.1 Summary Statistics for Key Variables, SSA . 56 2.2 Electoral Competition and Rel. Mobilization and pentecostalism, SSA . 57 2.3 Assessing Catholic Activism Separately, SSA . 60 2.4 Favored Models Excluding Possible Outliers, Angola and Ghana . 62 2.5 Rel. Mobilization, Electoral Contestation and pentecostal Growth . 63 2.6 Rel. Mobilization, Electoral Contestation and Charismatic Population Size . 64 iv List of Figures 1.1 Religious Change Over Time in Sub-Saharan Africa . .8 1.2 Renewalist Doctrines . 12 1.3 Comparing Catholic to Overall Population Growth . 20 1.4 Catholic Growth Across Regions, 1980-2012 . 21 1.5 Relating Regulation of Religion and Religious Competition . 26 1.6 Politicized Propagation: Applied Theory Diagram . 32 1.7 Electoral Contestation and pentecostal Population Share Across Regions . 34 2.1 Re-Examining the Role of Foreign and Domestic Evangelism . 49 2.2 Electoral Contestation and pentecostal Population Share Across Regions . 53 2.3 Did Catholic Population Size Influence Catholic Political Involvement? . 61 3.1 Maps of Zambia . 83 3.2 Allocation of Business Licenses to pentecostal Churches, Lusaka Province . 94 3.3 Elections and the Timing of Tax Breaks for pentecostal Churches . 98 3.4 Tax Breaks for Other Religious Organizations . 100 3.5 Local Government Appointments: Backgrounds Mentioned . 103 v Acknowledgements My journey towards this project began in college, and was encouraged by three out- standing mentors, each of whom pushed my thinking and interest in research to new levels. As Chair of Brown University’s Africana Studies Department, and as the advisor of my undergraduate honors thesis, Anthony Bogues instilled in me a transformative appreciation for the power of academic scholarship, especially when it challenges conventional wisdom. Similarly, Mary McKay provided life-changing mentorship, support, and inspiration, partic- ularly with respect to pursuing research questions that actually matter to the communities one studies. And, lastly, there is Fred Ssewamala, a giant in my eyes, from whom I have learned so much, and who, like Mary and Tony, continues to influence my sense of myself, my duties, and my privileges as an academic. The support of these three extraordinary people means more to me than I can say. Additionally, during my time as a Ph.D. student at Columbia, it was my incredible great fortune to work with Al Stepan, Jack Snyder, Kimuli Kasara, and Macartan Humphreys. Al is not only a world-renowned scholar with unrivaled passion for democracy, religious tolerance, and intellectual clarity, but also a giving teacher and extremely dedicated advisor. His classes helped