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" National Criminal Justice Reference Service a Q " (1 , '------'nCJrs :1 This microfiche was produced from documents received for , ~ 0 ,lnclusion in the NCJRS data base. Since NCJRS cannot exercise 'control over the physical condition of the documents submitted, (.') c ~l ': 0 ~ the individual frame quality will vary. The resolution chart on Q d . .. ~ 0 this frame may be used to evaluate the document quality. ~l, "PRISON POPQiLATIONoFORECAST 0 ·:FOR··WASH~l'iGTON STAT'E~FY ·t'982-'i995:~
.' TECHNICAL PROGRAMMIN°G 0 0 I 111. I DO~~ENTATION
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c, c~o 111111.25 111111.4 tllll/.6 I '" ~ 0 I o· ! -~ " 1, '" 1 I \ o MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TE~T CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS-1963-A Preparedo for • ~------:----; Governor's Interagency Criminal" Justice
Q Work Group. e Microfilming procedures us~d to cr~eate this fiche comply with o Office of Financial Management the standards set forth in 41CFR 101-11.504. Division of Forecasting & Estimation Points of view or opinions stated in this document are those of the author(s) and do not represent the official position or, policies of the U. S. Depat1ment of Justice. .\ Q!'J 2/10/.83 . National Institute of Justice " 'f ~, July ,1982= {\ ., I United States Department of Justicle 0::; (? .. Washington, D. C. 20531 .' . ('~ ,,_,. ...;M..- ~ It' "'~.:~- -... o o ./ . ... : . ~~------~------...... ------~------.,::;,~t_.~.~:_.. _~=~~_:._~.~_~ o STA1.""E OF WASHiNGTON o John Spellman, Governor ]PRISON POPUILATION FORECAST or, FOIffi, WA§JHIINGTON §TATlE=FY 1982=1995~ \ TECHNICAL PROGRAMMING DOCUMENTATION .' {. ~ I" " ~ i i ! '" Preparea-for Governor's Interagency Criminal Justice Work Group 85539 U.S. Department of Justice by the National Institute of Justice Office of Financial Management ! This document has been reproduced exactly .as recei~e? from the i person or organization originating it. Points of view or opInions stat~d 1 I) in this document are those of the authors and do. not nec~ssanly Division of Forecasting & Estimation represent the official position or policies of the Nabonal Insbtute of Justice. Permission to reproduce this c9f!~'ri!lI'lt!!tl material has been granted by State of WA/Office of Financial Mgmt DiVe of Forecasting & Estimation to the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (NCJRS). Further reproduction outside of the NCJRS system requires permis J 1Ul.ly 1 ~82 sion of the cGjO; IigLt"Owner. I I__ ~- OFM 40599 -327- , '. , . "'.~ -"-~~.,, '.~.,~~~, , ...., .. -' ..';""-..1 __ ~.~~"'--'-... ~.~.,.....,."-.-,~~~ .... ;~ •...,_ .. ''''.,..,.,,. -.,-;. ;I I •. JI TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT) Page PART 2: USER AID ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••••••••••.••••••••• 80 TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... CI •••••• 0 ••• 0 ••••••• i-i i I USER AID ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ~. 82 LIST OF I LLUSTRAT IONS. " •••••• 0 ...... It ••••••• 0 ••••••••••••••••••• i i i-v CHANGING THE JDI PERCENTAGES •••••••• /i •••••••••••••••••••••••• 87 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ...... vi Step 1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 87 PRISON POPULATION FORECAST , l TECHNICAL PROGRAMMING DOCUMENTATION •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 5 tep 2 ... It ...... 89 OVERV I EW ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• to ••••• CHANG ING THE CONV I CT ION RI\TES ••••••••••••••••••' •••••••••••••• 93 1. \ Step 1 ...... Report Organization •••••••••••••••• ...... 0 •••••••••• 5 93 PARr I: FILE STRUCTURE & PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION ••••••••••• ~ ••••••• 6 Step 2 ...... II\ •••••••••••• CI •••••••••••••••••••••• 96 THE FILE STRUCTURE ••.•.•••••.•••••••••••• ...... 8 CHANGING THE LENGTH OF STAY PATTERNS ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 99 j ••• '••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ••••••••••••••••••••••• " o Da t a F i J e s ••••• \I ...... ~ ••••••••• '" ...... 8 l S t e pl • . 99 '1 Programs ••..••.••••••..••• lk •••• 0 •••••• o •••••••••••• " ••••••• 10 Step 2 .. j.') •••••••••••••••• II •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 •••• 105 •1 Input P rograms •••••••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••••••• ti • 11 CHANGING THE EXISTING PRISON POPULATION •••••••••••••••••••••• 108 t Step 1 ...• e •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• :) ...... /I • Source Programs ••••••••••••••••••••••••• •••• 0 •••••••• 0 ••••• 11 A 108 Subpopulation Forecast Files ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 12 Step 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ~~ ••••••••••••• 108 THE BASE POPULAT J ON ••• ., •• ill •••••••••••••• • ' ••••• .to ••••••• 0 0 ••••• 13 Step 3 ••••••• o •• o •• o •••••••••• ~ ••••••••• e •• oo •••••••••••• 109 Spec ial Problems ...... e ••••••••••••••• 22 CHANGING THE STATE POPULATJON •••••• ~ ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 112 NEW ADMISSIONS FROM THE COURTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 27 Step 1 0 ••• II .' ••••••• ,••••••••••• v ••••• ,•••••• ~ ••.•••••••••••••• 112 ADMISSIONS DUE TO PAROLE FAILURE ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 40 Step 2.o •• !' ••••••••••••••••••••••• ~ •••••• o •••••••••••••••••• 112 THE REPORT WRITER •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 53 a HI STOR I CAL ANAL YS IS •••• II •••••••••••••••• ~ •••••••••••••••••••• 60 GENERATION OF THE LENGTH OF STAY DiSTRIBUTIONS ••••••••••••••• 76 f .... f r / .... 't:J:: ____ : ___' _,_ ' " .. 1 < -1"• .' -.---~~-- .-.- ~~'---'~' 1/h LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (CONT.) LJ ST OF IllUSTRATI ONS Page EXH I8 IT 11. I The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(NEWADMIT) Page The Forecast of the New Admissions From the Courts •••• j;' 1.... 34 EXH IB IT 1. ;i EXH IB IT 12. , /I The Conceptual Structure of the Prison Populatil?n Forecast Mode I ' ••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••".< •pI, •• •••••••••••• Ex. Worksheet That J:.; Calculated By the Program II WYL.OF.PRI.LIB.(P/AR:1LEES) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• !/...... 42 EXHJBIT 2. EXHIBIT 13. f;I The File Structure For the Prison Population ,! i Algorithm Depicting Calculation of Parole H Forecast Computer Model ••••••••••••••••••••• r..••.••••.••••• 9 o Returnee Forecast ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• fi ••••••• C 43 EXHIBIT 3. II The Data File WYl.OF.PRI .EXISTPOP; The Data Base EXHIB IT 14. '., . /' The Program LI~ltlng of WYL.OF.PRI.,LlB(PAROLEES) •••• ,••••••••• From Which The Base Population Forecast" is Malde ••••••••••••• 15 46 \ EXHIBIT 4. EXHIB IT 15. I ~ .. ~: Forecast Algorithm For The Base Population .~ •••••••••••••••• Ex. of the Report Produced By WYLOF.PRI.LlB(WRITER) •• ...... 54 16 i EXHIBIT 5. EXHIBIT 16. The Distribution of Release Dates For the B~lse Population. Ex. of the RfJport Produced By WYL..OF.PRI.LlB.(~JRI1"f!R) I ...... 55 In Terms of Time Remaining In Prison •••••• ~ ••••••••••• ~j •••• 18 . , .i!-. EXHIBIT 17. ~XHIBIT 6. I The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(WRITER) ...... 56 0 The Distribution of the Base Population As ~f June 1981, EXHtBIT 18: Classified By Sex and Crime Type •••••••••• ~ ••••••••••• ~ ••••• 23 :,.",. Algorithm That Produces The Reports For the Analysis EXHIBIT 7: , Of Historic~l Trends & Relationships ••••••••••••• ~ •••••••••• 61 /' The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(BASEP~OP) I: EXHIBIT 19: The Forecast of the Basefrison Population •••••••••••••••••• 21f Sample of Data In The File WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(DOCHIST) •••••• ~ ••• 63 i, EXHIBIT 8. , EXH I BIT 29: New Admissions From the Court;~ • If •••••••••• ,...... 28 The Program listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) •••••••••• : ••• 64 EXHI BIT 9. EXHIBIT 21: Example of Data From WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM):I: Ex. of~Report Produced By WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) The Commitment Rates By Age and Sex For The,Forecast Period. 29 ...... 73 EXHIBIT 22: EXHIBIT 10. r Ex. of Report Produced by WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(HISTREPT) Example of Data From WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI):' ...... 75 JUdicial Decision To Imprison Proportions B? Age, EXHIBIT 23: ,'\ .~ Sex, and Crime Type ••••••••••••••••••••••• ~ ••••••••••••••••• 31 Ex. From The File \O/YL.OF.PRI,.DATA(RELEASES) ~ "',. ~ , ~ ...... 77 EXHIBIT 24: "'I' Ii II The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(LOSPGM) •••••••••••••••• 78 EXH J BIT 2: 1 : The File Structure For the Prison Pop Forecast Computer Model 85 iii , iv . ,. " ;; ,jI I../' LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (CONT) Page EXHIB~~ ~~~·File Structure For Alternative Forecasts ••••••••••••• 86 o J EXHIBjbI2;~~ut Data File WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI) •••••• " ...... 88 I I ACKNOWLEGEMENTS EXHIBITChanged 2:4. JDI Values For Proper t y Offenders ••••••••••••••••••• 88 I I f EXHIBITConviction 2:5. Rate Input Data File WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM) •••••••• 94 The Technical documentation was primarily the work of Felix" D'Allesandro, u . r I EXHIBIT 2:6. Jack O'Connel I, and Jeffrey Tayman. Each contributed uniquely to the final 1/ Changed ConvictioQ Rates For Drug Offenders q ••••••••••••• " •• 95 C..~( , documentation of how the priSlon population forecast functions. This type iJ of detail reflects the thinking of the Governqr's Criminal Justice' Work' ·1 EXHIBITWYL.OF.PRI.SURVIVE 2:7. The Length of Stay Data Input File ••••••• 100 Group to make known pr i son PIOPU I at i on 'forecast i ng process to a 11 those ,I EXHIBIT 2:8. interested. ~ i ~ Changed Length of Stay Values •••• t) ,Ii ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 104 f The graphics werell the work of Patty Curry and the many drafts and final J ., . EXHIBIT 2:9. )' A Struc~ure Data •••••••••••••••• WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISREPT s ge L' 116 typing was done by Peggy Walker. r EXHIBIT 2:10. 117 ,WYL.OF.PRI .LIB(HISREPT} Age Labels •••••••••••••••••••••••••• II! I Part of thi~,) project was supported by the U.S. Department of JU~ltice, ·l Bureau of Justice Statistics gr'i:'lnt numbe,: 81BJCX01. n I 'I ·:~1 • 0 # l.I f j \r I! I i I l (I - I I !l I I 1 ( 1 ! " \ .. LJ v " , , ,:') . ,. =------~-----,------)'" \\ .. It. .... • 0 ·, PRISON POPULATION FORECAST: 'TECHNICAL PROGRAMMING DOCUMENTATION o \. "" OVERVIEW" \'\ The prison population-Forecast computer mOde't'is a mUltiphased system of , \ / initial data inputsj numerous programs, and l~termediate outputs~~which 1a t ~r serv.e as 'Inputs" an d a f'Ina I'prls()n PO\jIU\ I atlon. f orecast report. o Th:re are five major pro~1rams, one minor Plrogram\, eight data input files, \) I four subpopulation fore6~5t files, and two out~\Jt reports. The first \~ - \ - report is sn i ntermed i ad\ report wh i ch shows th,s. humber of anr;ua I new \-\ .~ \ " adm iss ions to pr i son. The second report is the a\~\tua I pr i son popu 1at ion , I, \\ forecast. ~ , \\ '. \\ The computer model allows foi,~, a fifteen year foreca:st, with the option of V ~ reporting monthly or annual p~rison populations form\~les, females, and ,;', . \ tota Is. The mode I a I so prov i'~~es month I y or annua I ~\nformat i on on the number of admissions by the tYP~\Of admissions and the' ~\umber of releases \: 1"; for males, femal~s and totals. \\ The types of admis\~ions include new admissions, parole returnees via t\~~ courts, and parole returnees via the parole board. All types of admissi~~s to prison are calcu'!ated as a annual forecast and then distributed acr6\s 'the individual months using a historical seasonal pattern. Release~rre calculated on }'monthly basis. For example, once it had been determined that a specific gn)up of prison admissions (i.e. male, first time, robbery offei~ers) arrive. t~ a specific month, the individuals within this group are ret~ased in a future array of II months per the estab I i shed re I ease pattern for th i s type of offender. Releases from the existing prison population are also estimated on a \ monthly basis. j, " i All of the data input files can b~ manipulated for the purposes 6f testing alternative forecast assumptions ,or for updating the for.ecast.The '\ (, ," ability to alter the various initial. or intermediate input files aJlowt; the I[ .\ decision makers and analyst to detei~mine the impact ·of ~hanges i~ the age \ ::, , 1 " 'I , .... and sex structure of the state1s popul~tion, in the size and charae c! , courts, parole failures who are readmitted through pa~ole board action, teristlcl's of the existing prison population, in the conviction patterns, , I in the to Imprlson percentages and changes in the length and those who are readmitted after being convicted of a new felony. In Judicial~dectsion \\ of stay patterhs. this model!, the number of new admissions is primarily driven by the state's official popUlation age and sex forecast. l j I I The prison population forecast is broken down into four subpopulations. i " ! The first of the four subpopulations is the base population. This sub , In Exhibit 1 the conceptual structure of the prison popUlation forecast I ;:, I population is comprised of the individuals in prison on the day prior to I I model is diagrarr~~1ed. The purpose of the model \'s. to accu'rately convey the i i the first month of the forecast (e.g., June 30, 1981). The second sub .\ i results of several Interrelated assumption~ Foncething the change in the \ population is the new admissions from the courts. The third and fourth prison popUlation. The popUlation at risk is seen to b. a subset of the subpopulattons result from parole fallure~ One type of parole failure is community at large. (This at risk popUlation is defined as those indivi the result of an individual conmlttlng a new crime or a technical parole duals between the ages of 16 and 54.) A certain proportion of the "at violation wherein he Is returned through a parole revocation. The other I risk" popUlation is convicted each year and committed to the Department of ~-<:. type of parole failure is when an Individual Is sentenced anew In court '\ Corrections. Of those committed a certain proportion are sent on ~o prison I and the remainder are returned to the community on probation. after comm i tt i nganothl~r cr ime wh 11 e on parol e. I 0:::::;; I ,0 I This forecast model is based on demographic techniques of population The new admissions to prison from the courts and admissions from parole' failures both vl,a the court and the parole board are ~:dded to the base 'change. I n effect, th is amounts to add i ng the net of arriva I s and de ? ~= partures to and Trom prison In each future period to the prison population i i'l , ,... - -"",.;:; -, - .--' . ... ""':" ,,~ • ,_;,.. I~< ::J ...... a> ,I EXHIB IT 1. The Conceptual Structure of the Prison Populati'Qn F.orecast Model TOTAL.PR IS.ON POPUI.,ATI ON TOTAL STATE POPULATION ...... -. ,___ II. C .,-;:;:; .. ;...... ,." . ' 0 eASE POPULATION ;,\. POPULATI ON AT RISK I) o 1. ," AGE 16-64 COURT POPULATION ~- -- ON _... - NEW ADMISSIONS PROBATiON FROM THE COURTS ~ " " .~\~-' PAROLE REVOCATIONS ~,- THROUGH THE COURT PAROLE POPULATION -- --. .' .'"" .. - BOARD ON ,~) f i PAROLE PAROLE\~' R~VOCAT IONS !. " I' ~ THROl!GH THE PAROLE 1.J ' , 'SOARD ., , ,', , , _ ... . , - y, ~ ;":"~,!. • ,.J . ..." -- ~ \ /" () . ',~ , o , - ;, I -. ., . I' f . \ Po' Report Organization Th is r,eport is d i v ided into major parts. Part 1 is entitled: Fi Ie Structure and prOg1DOCumentatlon •. Part 2 is entitled: User Aid. (y~ , o Part 2 of th is report shows how to run, update, and test a I ternat Lve 0 f assumptions for the prison population forecast model. In addition to an ~ I overview of the general operations of the computer model, this part of the i report prov ides six deta i led examp 1es of how, to update or test a I terhat ive. J PART 1 ,i "j I ! In Part 1, except for the initial section, which discusses the overall file 1 FILE STRUCTURE AND 1 r_ structure of the computer model, each of the sections in this part of the ~_/ ~ PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION I report focuses on one of the computer model's six programs. These include I f (1) the base popul,ation program, (2) the new admissions from the courts I program, (3) admissions due to parole failures program, (4) the report\ J writer, (5) the historical anai,ysis fileand' (6) the generation of the ,} length of stay matrix. Within each of these sections there is a general discussion of the program noting specifically the input ~nd output flIes, 1/ < and any particularly important switches or d~ta entry lines that are internal to the program. Also, where they exist, the input data matrices I appended to the program are described. Furthermore, each section contains .7 a generalized flow chart of the program. Finally, the ,actual Fortran ~ ! prograili 1s published. -I I ,f (,\ ,;;1 Ii ), i t I I I I 5 I , ,- t\ t, t // , \ 7 1" , l' ! ' ,~,;. ~-__""=,L""',, ,:",:, .-::--"'"'" , Q ,,' I~ I' I " \. I ' .- I, ~l~ . ----- ~---.. ~------\ THE FILE s1RUCTURE The file structure of the prison population forecast is diagral1l11ed in Exhibit 2. There are three types of files in the model. These are (1) data files, (2) programs, and (3) subpopulation forecast files. There are eight data input files, seven programs, and four subpopulation forecast files in the computer model. I( ~)' DATA FILES WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(DOCHIST): This file consists' of the number of annual 8 historical admissions for both those going to prison and those going on probation by sex, age, and type of crime for the fiscal years 1970 through 1981. WYL.OF.PRI.EXISTPOP: This file consists of the individual records of all those in prison on the last day of the fiscal year. 1 WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(PFOR): This file consists of the population forecast by single years of age for the entire state population for both sexes. It is a modified version of the file USER.Y1986.LUCKY which is produced using the OUTDAT option of the population projection system. ; WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(HISTPOP}: This file consists of the historical popu " lation by si"ngle years of age for the entire state population for bO,th sexes. The historical period covered by the,data file is,.,1970 through \ 1981. This file is used in conjunction with WYL.OF.PRI.DATA (DOCHIST) and is a modified version of the file USER.Y1986. LUCKY which is included in state's population projection system. 1 " \ ,-:; (. , o· 9 I • -, , o t , _ Prllceding page blank I )1 t,..~:, ' .... _'" ~ .. - .__ ---_. .. ..,... ~ ~.," ..... ______~ ___ i . (; ..... 1/ r"-,f II , } " EXl'iBIT 2: The File Structure For the Prison Population Forecast Computer Model .') =~ ~~~~~~~~~., ,I o. • r • !II ...... ~ ...... o ••~ fI', •• -.;.', eo 't , •• •..• I.' ••••~ , --~':-~WYL.OF...... PR' .DATA(COMM)::i .... -'"1"I ...... 0 ...... , ••••••••••••••••••/ .~WYL.OF.PRI.EXISTPOP'.·• , •••••••••••••• Ie ••••••••••••••••, , , o .~ ..•.•...... ~e .• o...... I .:. WYL.OF .PRI .DATA(JDI >::: WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(NEWADMIT $OP-?ft>1. Y1986.BASEPOP $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD $OPPFM.Y1986.COURT PROGRAM \ DATA FILE SUBPOPULATION .FILE DIRECT INPUT· POLICY INPUT ---~ ..~I • -;e=r''II'' == ~ ...... ~~... \r===~ " ~ . , " o " o , -, ,. .~ . .~~-----~-----~'----~-----'-~--'------'---~~.~--.------...... -~------:~·J~t'_·_:._.:.=. :~:= ____ .. , i : 1 WYL.OF.PRI.OJ\TA(COMM): This file ccnsists cf the fcrecasted cf )" : ~~ , ,\1 I felcnyccnvicticn by age, sex and crime type as measured by the ccnmitment' tc the Depclrtment, cf Ccrrecticns. In this mcdel the rates c; were determined by the Gcverncr's Interagency Criminal Justice Wcr.k grcup. WYL. OF. PR I. DATA, ( JD I) : Th is f i Ie ccns i sts of th~ fcrecasted rates cf judicial decisions tc impriscn by age, sex and crime type. In this mQde.1 the rates were a I SOl determ ined by the Gcverncr' s, Interagency Criminal JusticeWorkgrcup. WYL.Of.PRI.OATA.(RELEASES): This file' ccnsists cf the release patterns fcr the varicus lengths cf stay by sex and crime. Data in this file represents, fcr each subcategcry cf sex, crime, and type cf guideline an offender was sentenced under, the number cf perscns whc are planned' tc be re I eased with ina spec if i c mcnth with i n the range cf ltc 180 mcnths. Thcse persons released after the 180th mcnth are all r~ccrded in the 181th mcnth Which represents thcse nct released befcre the end cf the fcrecast pericd. '- I' WYL.OF.PRI.SURVIVE:. This file ccnsists cf the length cf stay curves by sex and cr ime type. These curves were generated frcm current I ·1 sentencing patterns and guidelines. The shape cf these curves can be ! t mcdified in acccrdance with expert judgement cr new infcrmaticn. I , PROGRAMS " II " . ~! I o There are seven prcgrams used in the priscn pcpulaticn fcrecast ccmputer ,t. mcdel. Three cf the pt'og.rams are input prcgrams and fcur are sCiurce I prcgrams. All prcgrams are written in FORTRAN 1Vc::t(1). 11 I 1 ,,I 11 , , -. ? I . ,. ,<;! " i i I WYL," OF .PR I .lI B(NEWADM IT): Th is INPUT PROGRAMS o ! '0 releases these admissions. l One program -- $USER.Y1986.LUCKY -- is actually exter~al to the prison \ WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(PAROLEES): this progra)\,' popul~tJOh forecast computer model. This program which is under the juris- $ " " generates releases from dIctIon of,the Office of Financial Management nivlsion of Forecasting and prIson and, from this base, admissions due"i;o parole failure. It then I goes on to release these admisslons.'~ E$~lmation is the source of the demographic iriput of the prison population foreca$t. This state population program is used to produce WYL.OF.PRI. II DATA ( HI STPOP) and WYL. OF. PR I • DATA ( PFOR) • WYL.OF.PRI.L1B(WRITER): This program generates printed ~l {:, detail and summarize the forecast. reports that 1 l ,I Two programs were written to facil itate analysis in the generation of basi.c ! I SUBPOPULATION FORI':CAST FILES I ! input dat~. Both of these programs access separate data files. Depending j on the situation these programs mayor may not be used. They should be " Four files were created which f used when ~stablishing an updated prison popu~atian forecast, but they may house the four subpopu I at ion forecasts generated by the forecast model These fll I not be necessary to use them when analyzing alternative assumptions once a • . es are generated by three of the source programs and then read by WYL.OF .PRI.LlB(WRIIER). If forecast is established. i1 - I (; $OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPOrl This file consists of ~JYL.OF.PRI.LlB(HISTREPT): This program summarizes historical data the monthly forecast of I the base population by crime type and sex. J provided by the Department of Corrections found in data file WYL.OF.PRI. It is generated by the DATA(DOCHIST). Information produced from WYL.OF.PRI .LIB(HISTREPT)" is used source ptogram WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(BASEPOPi. II as background information to establish the values in the conviction rate $Oppnl.Y1986.NEWADMIT· This f"1 " data file WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM) and the judicial decision to imprison data h • I e consIsts of the monthly 'orecast of 1 t e new admissions from the court by 0 t file WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI). WYL.OF.PRI.L1B(HISTREPT) also utilizes as cr Ime ype and sex I tis generated by the • t inpyt a special historical state population file WYl.OF.PRI{HISTPOP). sou rce p rog ram WYL. OF. PR I • LIB (NEWADM IT) • , $OPPFM.Y1986.COURT: Tho , WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(LOSPGM): This program was written to transform the numbers ~ s f i I e cons i sts of the month I y forecast of parole failures readmitted through th b of released prisoners WYL.OF.PRI .DATA(RELEASES) into length of stay curves I e court y crime type and sex. stored in WYL.OF.PRI.SijRVIVE. The information in WYL.OF.PRI.DATA tis generated by the source program WYL.OF .PRI • (PAROLEES) (RELEASES) was obtained from the.~oard of Prison Terms and Paroles. .$OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD: This file consists of the monthly forecast of parole fa·ilures readmitted through the 1 b " - SOURCE PROGRAMS paro e oard by crIme type and sex. It is generated b h y t e Source program WYL.OF.PRI. (PAROLEES). There are four, source progr~ms, written in FORTRAN IV (Gl), that are part of the file structure of the model. I WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(BASEPOP): Th!ls program releases the base population. I 13 , 12 , . ., . c' . ~ . ' II " combined Int.er' another felony category. The parole violators are dls ~ ! TH~ BASE POPULATION aggregated(;i'~:rld redistributed across the nine forecast categories of crime., i -.:.','.\" @ \' The subpopulation referred to as the base population ,consists of those The red)stribution of parole violators reflects the proportionate distri-: individuals in prison on the last day of the most recently completed fiscal butic~'of felony crime types. This distribution is input to the program year (i.e. June 30, 1981). Information describing the"cbaracteristics and through the data statement on line 8 UINe" in Exhibit 7. This input - \ expected release dates of the base population is In the data file WYL,.OF. reas~igri~ nine-twentieths of the p~role vlolator~ as property offenders, PRJ.EXISTPOP. An example of this file and data definition information is two .. ~~entieths as sex criminals, two-twentieths as robbery offenders, j I three-twentieths as assaultive offenders, two-twentieths as drug of dhplayed in Exhibit 3. I fenders, one-twent i eth as other offenders, and one-twent i eth as man'" ,; The source program that ~alculates the monthly forecast of the base popu slaughter offenders. « [! lation is WYL.OF.PRI.L1B(BASEPOP). Exhibit 4 presents the atgorithmfor the calculations. There are no admissions to this subpopulation; there The distribution of releases from the base population constitutes a fore, the task of the program is to accurately simulate the release centl"al problem for this subpopulation forecast. Those person!? with ') ~ release dates In the forecast period of month 1 through month 180 --or July , process. 1981 to June 1996 are released on the recorded estimated month of release. I The first step in calculating the base population forecast is the sorting Perscms remaining after the 180th month, except for special cases, are p of the individual records into aggregations dellnea'ted along three dl- cons i dered as st i 11 rema I n I ng in pr i son at the end of the forecast. j . . 0 mensions; sex of the offender, offense type, and expected release date. Speci~1 cases fall into one of three categories: \ The sort by sex is straightforward and does not require any calculation or I o I data transformation. The sorts by offense type and expected release date (1) Persons without a minimum term set, j do involve data transformati,ons and calculations. (2) Persons backlogged -- i.e. those persons who were originally , scheduled for release before July 1981, but who still remain in I c t In Qrder to~aintaln consistency with the historical analysis the offense~ prison, "i listed on the ,individual records were coded to conform to the summary {3) Persons whose re1ease dates were judged to be probable miscodes. "i \ offense "types. These types are as follows: murder I, murder II, man )' 1;\' s I aught-er, sex cr imes, r,obbery, assault, property cr imes, drugs, parole Exhibit 5 highlights these special categories by showing the distribution () violators, other felonies, not reported, and unknown. An early decision in of re~ease months. The release month, 1abled as TIMEGO in Exhibit 5, is I model development determined th~t parole violation wou'1d not be considered calculated for all individuals in the base poputatio~ Including the I\ i a crime type in the forecast. Underlying this decision was the assumption, specicll cases. TIMEGOis calculcf'ced as follows: ,j I ma'iota-jned throughout the mode], that prisoners would ,retain the crime i type o.f their most recent f3dmissi-on if they returned to prison as a fai lure • 1 (Year of Release * 12 + Month of Release) - 978 = TIMEGO • l \ ! from parole. ;;0, Therefore, someone scheduled for release in June 1981 would have a TIMEGO i' The first set of questions addressed in the program WYL.OF.PRI.LIB value of ze~o, or (81 * 12 + 6) - 978 = O. Month 1 of the forecast (J.e. " (BASEPOP) requires flagging those records coded as part>le vi()lators, other TIMEGO ~~1)represents July 1981. Month 2 represents August 1981. Month " felonies, felony not reported and unknown. The three later categories are I f i' '/ , 15 14 .!6 o II /1 il . , $I I ::; Q (( "Z\ I) (~~~-~ .; • '% ."""t rim ,! Q .EXHIBIT 3: The Data Fil-e WYL.OF.PRLEXISTPOP; The 'Data 'Base From Which The B.ase Populi:!tion Forecast is Made ., A. Ah EKample of the Gases Residing in theTile ·c. Dati:! Defi nit i ort 25014 1 1 2 41 97 11 700924 3'265 SEX Yl= Male 2= Fe1nale9=Unkhown ;" 25016 1 1 5 4 482 12 80120~ 24 2 RACE l=White 2=Black ,:3'=Americah';'I'l1dian .",' 25287 1 1 4 9 1 '87 4 760820 128 -4 4=Mex i can' 5=Other '9=Unknown" \J 25629 1 1 2 2 1 95 10 751007 240 5 J) 26176 1 'I 1 2 ~ 84 '8 ?90213 661 ADMTVP,E 1=A 2=B 3=C4=D 26306 1 1 5 7 -4 £2 4 791218 28 2 5=Other 9=Unkrlown 26442 1 2 2 a 4 -81 11 801113 12 IJ 26450 1 1 2 7 1 '87 3 750707 140 5 OFFENSE TYPE l=Murder I 2=Murder II· 26503 1 1 2 5 1 97 8 7404'18 280 5 '~3=Mansl aughter 4=SexCr imes 26568 1 1 5 -4 1 92 1 780919 160 1 5=Robbery 6=Assi:luli 26687 1 1 1 -4 482 3 790326 36 2 7=Pr0perty8=Drugs 26835 1 1 2 8188 6 680.61 a 240 5 9=Parole Violators10=bther 26873 1 1 2 5 4 82 7 791220 31 1 l1=Not Reproted 99=Unknown .26936 1 1 2 6 -4 81 5 791108 18 2 I-' 2,6953 1 2 4 1 87 12 740819 160 5 CATEGORY l=Pregui'deline 2=Nonguidel ine C'l 27242 1 2 5 1 8S 7 750310 160 5 3='GUSS , I 4=GUSSII FELONY CIJ~ l=A ·Z'::8 3=C 4=P 5=R9=Unknown B. The Record 'Layout :,,~l :::. {.; \ ' •.. >- a:: ADMIT (i 0 DATE ; , (,!) V) ~ a:: LU ':E: V) I- , :~ \ I -- -, " 1,1 b"7 .,>0, d2hl4~5.l6 7. 8 9 to 1.2 13 14115 16 18 19 22,1 '3 24, 4/ f LV - 11 20 21' 25'126 291-50 31 32133;34115 36' 37 r;>o;'l} "- " '" -~ I' . " . I " , " , ; ! f , Il • iJ \\ . - \ . , I . II I / .. I , ..::J ...... -.'. . ... ' __., 'J, -" ,~ • (, "--;i'" -....' ~~ ... V. --_._--_. -~.,,----~- ----,_.. ' .- ---~- _.---.--.-, -.--~ ~XHIBIT 4: Forecast Algorithm For the Base popUlation .' INDIVIDUAL DI STRIBUTI ON MINIMUM I RECORDS ON BACKLOG OF FELONY ·TERM· - POPULATION THE. EXISTING. CRIME TYPE POPULATION .' D·I STR I BUT ION .. ,. .... READ DATA SET SUBSCRIPT .' CALCULATE IPER= , RELEASE RLSE MONTH'· . MONTH . , ." C,' SORT BY. SEX INCREMENT COUNTER (i FOR CRIME BY SO.RT• BY .~LSE YES RLSE SET PER BY SEX MONTH"- TO . l CRIME .BY STATUS .' . "TYPE = ~~ ? .MINTRIM i • ...... NO ':'--J \~ LAST· () ·CRIME· YES_ RECORD? RLSE CRIM YES MONTH' RLSE SET P~l/ >. '180 ? YES 10 TO MONTH .NO".--~'" '-"-!,,!,",--- 1'81. CRIME ADD = OTHER .YES NO ..... ____--'1 BACKLOG 'l'.; UNKNOWN ON 1, POPULATION - RPT ? •• TO· COUNTERS CRIM . RLSE ...:. NO ....._ ...... ---1 = MONTH YES UPDATE 9 > _. 30. COUNTER ~ Ii .< 0 'CALCULATE 'DISK FilE OP. •• 1 NUMBER MONTHLY FORECAST '. REMAI.NING: ---..... OF PR I SONERS . ·CRIME YES, 1~ FROM THE REMAINING AND = -~ . D! STRIBUT I ON . RELEASED . RED i STR i BUn: OF RELE'ASE .~, . ACROSS CRIME TYPE NO -- ,'; .. , G ~. , ~'" , ..... f! I . " ," '.J...... :.,. ----..:--'-----.::.---=.--.:-~----~~.....:...:...-""-'------~------''----~~~------.--...~ ~ -~------ , . -----~- , EXHIBIT 5: of Release Dates For i~eTDistribut~onerms of T,me Remain,Ong In the Base Population Pr ison y 18P rep te sen t 5 the 1as t JIIOn t h of the f oreca st • Ca ses b e on1( month 180, CUM CUM except for the specie 1 catego I es, represent persons rema I n I In pr Ison CUM r 1'9 T I MEGO FREQ FREQ TIMEGO FREQ FREQ TIMEGO FREQ FREQ 8 lOO 1"81T NO MINIMUM TERM at the end of the fore~ast. BACKLOG POPULATION 9 108 1919 -978 547 547 10 93 2012 -30 ~ 594 The spec I a I ' ca tegorl.s can be under 5 tood by r·ev I ew I ng the rat; onal e for 11 91 2103 21st CENTURY -28 3 597 12 85 2188 their establishment. Persons wIthout a minimum term are coded as 00 00 In -27 1 598 13 82 2270 -26 1 599 , 14 columns., 19-23 In \NL. OF .PR I .L I B(BJ\SEPOP). Th I s value y I e Ids a TIIIEGO -975 1 548 -25 8 607 77 2347 -973 2 550 15 60 o 2407 value of ~78; i.e., (00 • 12.0)-978 = -978. There are 547 casest In thIs 551 ' -24 3 610 -967 1 -23 5 615 16 74 2481 17 82 2563 -22 1 616 I categ~ry. ',I'M I SCODES 18 61 2624 \ -21 1 617 -145 1 552 19 62 2686 The ass um.4 mlscodes I nc I ude thos e wher e TI ME GO = ·31 (Decemb or 1978) -20 4 621 20 64 c~s.s -131 1 553 -19 3 624 2750 -116 1 554 21 52 2802 itiroughTlMEGO = -145 (May 1969). It was reasoned that few If .any persons -18 5 629 22. -105 1 555 -17 6 635 67 2869 wou. I ~ be kept longer. than 30 I110nths beyond thel r or Ig I na 1 est Imated date of "'92 1 556 23 51 2920 ~ . .' ' -16 7 642 ~. . 24 release. It was further assumed that the difference between TIMEGO = -967 -851 557 -15 7 . 649 57 2977 . ., . 3022 -78 1 558 -14 ' 14 663 25 45 . (Nov errb er 2000) and TI MEGO -145 (either May 1969 or May 2069) prov; ded a -69 1 559 26 31 3053 -67 1 560 -13 7 670 27 41 3094 natural break i ng point between those wi th release dates in the :pst century -12 15 685 28 44 ,3138 " ' -64 1 561 ." r and .the lower lImIt for mlscodes. There are 41 cases In t~e mlscode -61 1 562 :11 17 702 29 47 3185 h-l0 20 722 3222 -57 1 563 -9 24 746 30 37 ,cate~ory. -56 1 564 31 37 ,3259' ~8 24 770 32 ,3292 -55 1 565 -7 16 786 33 The backlog subpopulation, ranges fromTIMEGO ;:::. P (June 1981) to ,IMEGO = - -54 1 566 -6 24 810 33 31 3323 -51 3 569 34 31 3354 30 (January '1979). There are 4.46 cases In the backlog category. Persons -5 29 839 3388 -50 1 570 24 863 35 34 -49 2 572 -4 36 35 , 3423 I n the back I og' ca teg~ry .1 n~ 1ude t hos e wh.o had a re 1eas': date of june 1981 ~3 48 ' 911 " ' ' 34 3457 -48 1 573 -2 35 946 .37 or up. to 30 mont h 5 earlier yet remained In prIson. The rna Jor r ~a sons for -46 1 38 27 , 3484 574 ~1 ' 37 983 -45 2 576 28 3512 this bac1 1astn i ne roWS perta i ~ to ,females. , . ' 19 I~l . 18 , EXhibit 6 sh h The specia,l, category of backlogged prisoners is released vi.;! a matrix ows t e distribution of the base prison and crime ty E population across sex c fol lowing .the release matrix for the persons without a minimum term and the IJ I pes. xhibit 7 is a listing of the mi,codes in lines 123 through 162 of WYL.OF.PRI .LIB(BASEPOP). Lacking any PRI.LIB(BASEPOP). forecast program ~YL.OF. knowledge .of the historical rate of release for backlogged persons, it was dec I ded that invert I ng the pattern of reta in I ng persons beyond theJ r SPECIAL PROBLEMS release date would serve as the overriding rationale for releasing this f,lroup, In this way a greater number of persons would initially be released Updating this section of the prison population fore with the number of releases declining over time. The latest anyone is problems because the size d k cast presents special an rna eup of a new . released from the backlog population is month' 30 of the forecast. from the one used in thO f' . prison population will differ IS orecast. The change· th . j popu I at i on can eas i Iv be in In e Size of the new base I corporated by the forecdst d . The structure of the release matrix for the backlogged offenders is .as second parameter on line 19 f h ' mo el by altering the o t e WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(BASEPOP) follow~. The first 20 lines pertain to males and the second twenty lines the present size of the . . • In Exhibit 7, prison population on I· 19· perta into fema 1es. Each cr ime wi th i n the sex categor i es requ i res two makeup of future priso . I. Ine IS shown as 4720. The n popu atlons will also . lines with each successive entry on these lines representing the number of ana I ys i s be performed for th requ Ire tha t separate/ . . " e special categories of prisoners Without backlogged offenders being released in a specific month. On the first line mInimum terms, with miscodes, and Who are backlogged Furthermore, new within eClch crime category releases for months 1-15 are shown, and on the length of stay and backlog release matrices need to b: second 1ine releases for months 16-30 are shown. There are ten crime the changes In the future pr·lson developed to meet population • . categories \'Ilthin each sex category. The first two rows represent murder 1, the. second set of two row~ represent murder 2, and then follow sex crimes, robbery, assault, property crimes, drug crimes, other offenses and paro.le vioiators. Notice that zeros are entered in the lines for parole violators~ Parole violators who wer~ backlogged were redistributed pro ~ortionately across the other crime types so as to comply with the crime . stru,ctu.re of the overall prison population forecast model. The. di.stribution o.f the releases for the total base population is the result of adding the backlog population distribution to that calculated f.~r 1:bJ~ nQJJ:~bc;l~klQg, P.QRI,tl~~,ioll. The non-backlo~LP()pulation at this poi:nt in. th~ progralJl includes the special categories'of miscodes and, persQlis with9.u,t: mirdlJlum. terms. This tota.l distribution ;'s then utilized; to calq.'I,llate the number of prisoners remaining and released in eClch month of tb.~ fQr~cast for the l?ase population: These two distributions, prisoners r~IJlCJ.ln.lng in prison and prisoners released, are combined and written out to a disk HIe -- $OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPOP. () , 22 , " fI i . .. . '\ D , .' .... , ... EXHIBIT 6. The Distribution of the Bas',e Population As of June. 1981, Classified by Sex and Crime Type /I MALE 220 203 105 719 847 596 1616 144 70 4520 <, FEMALE 14 7 14 6 41 27 66 21 4 200 TOTAL 234 210 119 725 888 623 1682 165 74 Q \ ----~---.-,------' .. ..--... , " , , " r ' o . ,I" $I I . \' y:.:;.::---'" -.:-~ ' ~!\ .:.. ~;J. ~XHIBIT 7: The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRt.LIB(BASEPOP) , t) 'r ~,'t:r :.: 9 The Forecast of Base Prison Population 1, ,'., J.' , j f' , C <1.i ~~- "l 'I , 1. IIBASEPDP JOB (,,99,O,,01),FELIX,TIHE:C,09),MSGLEVEL=(1,1) [ 2. II EXEC FORG1CLG 3. IIFORT.SYSIN DD * (. '. i 4. DIMENSION MINTRH(2,9,20),HBCKLG(2,10,30),INPUT(13) . i 5 • DIMENSION INC(20),ICOUNT(2,9l,IOUT(10,180,2,2) I I 6. DATA MINTRM 1360*O/,MBCKLG /600*0/, INPUT 113*01, lOUT /7200*01 7. DATA ICOUNT 118*01 8. DATA INC 17,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,4;4,5,5,6,6,6,8,8,9,31 9. READ(5,500) «(MINTRM(I,J,K),K=1,20),J=I,9),1=1,2) 10. 500 FORMAT(2013) , , II. READ(5,501) «(MBCKtGCI,J,K),K=1,JO),J=1,10),I=1,2) ; : • i 12. 501 FORMAT(1514/15I4) i 13. 502 FOR MA T(:£ 7, 1X, :[1 , t X, :£1 ,IX, 11 ,IX, :£2 ,IX, :[ 1 ,IX,! 2, 1X p 12,1 X,312,1 X, 14 , 14. IX,It) t 5. LL=O \, 16. 1SUM = 0 17. MBACK = 0 t B. NREC ::: 0 t 9. DO 100 MCABEB::: 1,4720 , ; 20. NREC ::: NREC + 1 21- READ(12,S02) (INPUTO),I = 1,13)1'1 22. ISEX = INPUT(2) 23. ICRHi = INf'UT(5) 24. IF(ICRIM .EG. 9) ICRIH = 10 25. IF(INPUT(S) .EG. 10) ICRIM ::: 9 '- 26. IFCINPUT(S) .EG. 11) ICRIH = 9 27. IF(INf'UT(S) .EO. 99) ICRIM ~ 9 28. IF(ICRIM .NE. 10)GO TO 800 29. Ll=LL+l 30 •. ICRII1=INCC LU 31 i·1 IFClL .EG. 20)LL=0 32. 800 OIF(INPlIT(7) .EO. 00 .ANn. :CNPUT(S) .EO. 00) GO TO 300 33 • IF , 25 -'-.~'.-~~-~ -, .' (~' .·0 . . , ... ,. " 1 I ------'J " \otS?lfz '. -rrrr.:-.i:;2.:"'?b?!M 'rrnt'-' ... ,-","",~;-~.:;~:.. ;:..:~:'.:..;:;.:.." _~·_m~ '1'.~..... ".,. _ ~~._ • EXHIBIT 7: Continued EXHIBIT 7: Continued ! 05. 49. 40Q ICOUNTCISEX,ICRIM)=ICQUNT(ISEX,ICRIM)+l 1601701 811 811 B11 B11 811 8'1 fa 1fa 11 Ht 18 '1/81 '18118 j '181 '18lf 81 '/81181 50. MH=ICOUNT(lSEX,ICRIM) i ,j 106. 107. 34 39 56 58 '60 65 66 6976 81 87102104110H7f20128"f42160'181 51- IPER=MINTRH(ISEX,ICRIM,MM) 14 18 20 22 23 25 28 29 32 32 32 35 37 38 40 42 45 4~ 58100 52. IF(ICOUNT(ISEX,ICRIM) .EO. 20)ICOUNT(ISEX,lCRIM)=0 108. 109. 24 27 29 33 36 38 41 44 46 49 52 55 58 64 67 72 83 98120181 53. IF(IPER .GT. 180)GO TO 305 , , 18 21 24 26 28 3f 32 33 35 36 37 40 44 5054 58 63 73 98170 110. 54. 304 IOUT(ICRIM.IPER,ISEX,2) = IOUT(ICRIM,IPER,ISEX,2) + 1 19 21 2t 26 28 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 43 4B 51 54 60 67 78181 GO TO 100 , 111 • ~55" 112. 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 '17 18 "19 19 20 21 23 24"25 29 32 42124 56. 305 lOUT (ICjnM, 1BO,ISEX, 1 )~1O\JT( leRIM; 'ISO I ISEX,l) + 1 7 9 1112 13 13 14 16 17=19 20 2122 23 24 25 2630 32 41 57. GO TO 1()O ,~,~~' ," 11 3. 114. 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 '11 12 13 14 "16 20 22. ,23 24 25 26 27 32 5~. :301 MBACK =,~i\:ilcK + 1/' 120 140 160 1e /1 8 11 8 11 8 11 '811 8 11 8~11 a11 811 811 811 811 8 11 811811 811 81 59. 100 115. CONT!NUE . r. _. g 116. 36 36 36 36 45 50 55 60 60 61 61 62 63 64 65 66 JO 75 80 86 60, DO J08 J~EX - I~~ .12 12 12 12 18 19 20 21 23 28 29 30 32 3J 34 34 35 36 37 117. 20 61 ,; D030~ lCR.JW;c'= 1,10 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 60 1 t 8. 62. DO 310 IPER = 1,30 16 18 22 23 25 26 29 30 31 32 34 36 37 38 44 46 54 60 65 68 11 9. 63. ~JIQUT(lCRIM,IPER,ISEX,2) = IOUT(ICRIH,IPER,ISEX,2) + 10 16 21 212122 23 2425 26 27 2,8 2930 313234 3643 51 120. M. M~CKLG(IS(X,ICRIM,IPER) B 910111112121313 14 151"5 16 17192021242742 121. 65. 310t CONTINUE 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 "12 12 13 14 17 18 20 21 22 25 31 35 39 122. 66. 3.0~:( CONTI~!JE 123. 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 36 40 , 67. 3081; CONTINUE 000 0 000 1 0 0 ~ 1 000 ,l 1204 68. DO 311 IBEX; 1,2 • 1 0 0 0 1 0., Q 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 '1 125. 69. DO 312 leRIM = 1,10 o ,0 0 0 0 0 ~o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ' 126. 70.( , DO 313 IPER = 1,180 o 1·' 0 0 0 (~O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71. ISUM = IOUT(ICRIM,lPER;ISEX,2) + ISUM 127. 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 ./ 0 0 0 0 1 128. o 72. 313 CONTINUE 0 1 0 0 0 "b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 129. o 73. ISUM = ISUM + IDUT(lCRIM,180,ISEX,1) o 0 0 1 0 1 0 '1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 74. DO 314 IPER = 1,179 '. 130. 131. 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 ;10 1 75. IOUT(ICRIM p IPER,ISEX,1) = 18UM -IOUT(ICRIH,IPER,ISEX,2) 2 2 001 1 1 121 2' 1 212 132. 76. ISUM = ISUM - IOUT(lCRIM,IPER,ISEX I 2) 1 21 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 I n. 314 CONTINUE 133. 134. 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 .1 1 1 7B,. lSUM = 0 11111 1 11 000 I! 79. 312 CONTINUE 135'~ 21 15 14 13 12 15 15 15 15 15 12 "12 12 '12 "11' 136. BO. 311 CONTINUE 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 4 ·,4 .4 4 4 st., DO 3'15 1 = 1 J 1 . ~" 137. 138. 201111111 j 1 1 100 \ c. 82. no 316 K = 1;2, o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0" 83. DO 317 J = lr1ao . 139. 140'. o 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ./ 0 0 8A. URITE(6 606} IOUT(I,J,K,1),lOUTCl,J,K,2), 000 1 000 0 0 0 ~ 000 0 141 • S5,., , IOUT( (1+1) ,J,I<, 1), 10lH (<1+1),J,K ,2),. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 006 142. o o· Bli. 2 lOUT ( (I+~) F' J ,.K, 1 ) , I OU1-(( I+~,) , J , ~, 2) , 143. o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ 000 B7. lOUT< (:C+;H,J,K, 1), lOUT( <1+3) ,J;h,2), o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 "0 0 0 0 0 144. BB,. 2 :IOUT( ~I+4) ,J,K, 1) ,cOUJ«1+4) ,J,f~r/'2), 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145. o 8.9. 1 l(WT ( ( 1+5) ,.J; t<, 'j ) , lOUT ( NE\~ ADM 15S IONS ,FROM THE COURTS ' .1 -:" .. / Th~ ,?ubpopulation of n~w admissions ·from the c04rts is .a for~casted .compor,u~nt ,of the total prison population. Th~ al,j'Jorithm used to. deve·lop. \\ \\ . th~ ,n~w j3dmis,sions population js presented in Exhibit 8. The tasks of this, pr9Qram -~ WYL.OF\\.PRI.L113(NEWADMIT) -- are mi3ny fold. .Flrst~there, are QUllJerous bas i c .data inputs, that are themse I yes forecasted ser ies. The, 1lJ~j.or ,data inputs incJude a state population forecast, a conviction r,ate 4. CI . for,ec~st, and a judicial oecfsion to imprison forecast. U.sing these data .' Inputs, ,<;I projectj,on of .;mnual new admisslbns to prison is calculated. : The . .', . .. .: . I! annu<;il ac!llr!ssions, ar,:l~o,~;:th~n broken 'down' into a monthly proJecti\)o. Each . '\,~7'. .' • • • month' ,l? 9dm i s'si ons ar,e sub,sequent I y con's i dered .i nd i v i dua 1 cohorts whiCh "...... are then sl!rvi\led 'through the forecast period u~i ng ,the 1ength of' stay curves., The, su~populati'on:foreci3st for new admissions, to prison is the " ,result of the'summation, across cohort's" of those remaining in pri,son in 'ea'ch month c;lnd '9f tHqse, re l'e~sed each ./l)'onth. ;:) "As outlined ,above, the neW, 9pm'issions 'to prison are the resu'lt 'of the I combination of several 'data series. Most of these dataseries"'-state P~Pui~~ion fore~a~t,. c~nYicti'(m' rat'e 'fo~ecast, 'do, 1 fo~ecast,. and,'leng'th of I ",~. ' , ',' " ", stay ,curve$--are deve~oped. from assumptions' and. methodologi~s, that are I irioep-end~nt of ' the mec~anics of' the program." The assumptions,and method , . plo~ne~, utilized' to~e\(~rop the input for this foreca'st may be found in l W~'s.hingtpn State:, Popula.tion Projecti'on' System ,and Prison' Populadon I , .' ~ " -' '. .' .. F?!-ecast ,For Wa~hington. State FY 1982.,.1995: Methods, Procedures and FindinQs. Both repo.rts arepubl ishegby' the Washington 'State Office of F i tl~~C i <;I," Manag'ement I. ~ F~reca st i n9 a'nd Est i mad on ,0 i vis i o.n. " ... \ The, S.t9,tel~, Ilopul~t:ipn' forecast, ... -WYL.OF .PRI.DATA(PFOR)..,- is an ~xogeno!J? f~r~e dri,y'in,g 'the fore~,,!$t qf. n'ew p.rison admissipnsfrom the courts. The ,denominato,r, 'or D«;ISe, from whJich' the prison' population ,may' drc;lwn is b~ , 6 ·t~k~D, t",· beaU ,individual's rn'the state between the ages of 16' and 54, ' 'i I. , , 1 '.!, bQ.~h 'lII,ctles"~nd femalE!!?,~'This base is thepopula.tion th<;lt is lIat risk" of = H 8'0 ,',:; '. .. go,in,g. tp pr;ison,'for the corrmiss{on o.fa felony crime. Gre.a~er precision in ., :, \ th~f}~Hmati,on of convictions can beSiained by co.ntrolling forage 9nd sex • .. , , " ...... o . I/' .; \' " . ) . .~ / --~ ------~-----~. :;~.:::.~~,--- j . I' If , ' . r " EXHI~IT 8' ': NEW ADMI5S IONS FROM THE COURTS '. , POP;ULATI ON' ',AGE GROUP.S . COMM ITMENT , JIJ" I MONTHLY LENGTH OF STAY FORECAST BY SEX RATES , P.RO/PORT IONS DISTRIBUTION SURVIVAL 1 •• . CURVES \\ . I , , G li .., .. R,EAD READ READ " READ DATA i: .. 'DATA. DATA : DATA DATA STATEMENT '. I, '. .( , 1~ , , I SURVIVE !, .MONTHLY " AG,GREGATE INTO SET, NUMBER ' , CALCULATEg' ADMISSIONS NI 12 ~ MAJOR AGE OF GROUPS ~ ANNI;JAL, FOREiCAST . GROUP I NG ' AND GROUP .. NEW, '. LI MITS ADM I 5S IONIS . - , " , BREAKDOWN REAGGREGATE ' .. PRINT NO .. INTO MONTHLY . POPULATI ON, REPORT >---...... -~ FORECAST OF 'FORECAST, " #1 J NEW ADMISSIONS " Y~S , , , , . PRINT NO ,I REPORT #2 iI' .. 1 YES , \ : REPORT ON REPORT ON DISK FILE· OF ANNUAL MONTHLY MONTHLY FORECAST ,ADMiSSIONS ADMISSIONS OF PRISONERS ," REMAINING AND '( RELEASED , :-," ---::;--. .;:.. ,f , .' ,';0 '() /( . ,. f' I / 1 .. cf'! .' ~, 1 t Thatis,c;:ertain age groups are, more 1 ikely to cominit one particul~r type of cr lme as opposed to another t'ype, of cr iine. Therefore,' in' order to give EXHIBIT 9. Example of Data From WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM): The Commitment flexibil ity to the forecaster ,the program first organizes the at I'Risk Rates By Age and Sex For the Forecast Period I P()pulation" into twelve major age groupings,as follows: '1~ to 17~ 18,. 19, 1.003 1 ~ 003 1.003 ;f .711212 .. 560 .560 , .560 I 20, 21, 22,~23, 24,'25 to 29, 30 to 34~ 35 to 39, ~nd 40 a~d'over (ie, 4b to .560 .560 .560 • ~)60 .560 .560 .560 .560 .560 .560 .560 .560 54). These age subclass,i-fications are then ,uniquely grouped to provide the 72 112 .481 .481 .4Bl .481 1 .48" .48" .481 • 481 .481 .4'81 .481 ~481 .481 .481 ( best estim,tio~s for each type of crime. 81 112 .580' .620 .660 .700 .740 .780 .BOO .BOO .800 .800 .800 .800 .800 .800 .800 82 112 .150 .160 .170 Prior to any further data'pr~pa~ation th~ detisl~n must be made a~ to which .180 .180 .180 .180 .180 .180 .180 .1 BO .180 .180 .180 ,'age groupings are significant, by sex, for each crime'type.' The age 91 112 .562 .. 562 .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 .!5b2 .562 .562 .562 .562.562 .562 .562 , group i ngs of the current forecast are' stored as i hput in card image 92 112 .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 lmm~diatelY following the SOUiC~prO!;!ram, line~ 268 to 285 in Exhibit 11. .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 .080 Two other data setsmust be developed prior to' calcul~ting the ,forecast. 1), Each Input Record requires two cards. Thefirst,'of thes~ is WYL.OF.PR!.DATA(COMM), ~,he conviction rates, by age, . ... ,. 2) The record Layout Is As Follows: sex, ,and crime type'. The rptes currently stored .in this ,data set', were,' developed by the Governor's Interagency, Cri~ir:tal Jus't,ice Workgroup after Card 1 examination of h·I.storical patterns2 .(See Exhibit 9) . ) ~ \ COLUMNS DATA COLUMNS DATA 1-2 Cr ime Type The second dataset that must be developed is WYLOF'.PRI.JDI. rhis data set 50-55 3 Sex Eight Year of Forecast 56-61 Ninth Year of Forec~st represents' the 'p'roportions ,for' the judicial decisions, to !mprison once 4-5 Lower Limit of Age Group 62-67 Tenth Year of Forecast 6-7 Limit of Age Group convicted by age, sex, and crime type. Th~ rates ~ur~ently stored in the ,U~~er 68-73 Eleventh Year of Forecast 8-13 First Year of forecast' 74-79 Twelfth Year of Forecast system were developed i,'" a simi~ar manner 'as described above for the 14-19 Second Year of Forecast \' 20-25 Third Year of Forecast Card 2 conviction rates (see ,also footnote 2). (See Exhibit JO) , 26-31 Fourth Year of Forecast 1-7 Blank 32-.37 Fifth Year of Forecast 8-13 Thirteenth Year of Forecast 38-43 Sixth Year of Forecast The data statement~ line 18 in Exhibit 11, which fills the array MONTH 14-19 Fourteenth Year of Forecast 44-49 Seventh Year of Forecast 20-25 prQvides the program With' a means of breaking the annual admission figt:i'f""es Fifteenth Year of forecast out to monthly flgu~es. The r~tionale ~nderlying the distribution 'i\' 3) The Crime Types Are As Follows: i 4) 'The Age Limits Are As Follows: '1 Murder I 6 Assault 2 Murder II 1 16 to 1] 7 "23 7 Property Crimes 2 18 8 24 3 Mans laugh-ter 8 Drugs 3 19 ,9 25 'to 19 4 Sex Cr imes , 9 Other 4 20 '\ 5 Robbery 10 30 to 34 5 21 11 35 to 39 "P 6 22 ~The analysi~ of historical patterns ofconv(ction rates (as m~asured by 12 40 and ove~. c'ommitment to the Department of ,Corrections) and'of judlc;:ial decisions to imprison was facilitated by the algorithmhr- the --'fHe WYL.()F.WU~LlB (HISTREPT) which sunmarized histo,rical data provided by the Depattmentof 5) The Sexes Are As Follows: Correction~'. The fil,es related to this analysis .are described in th~ section'describing the Historical Analysis. 1 Male .. Z Female , 30 31 ~.~.--~----~.-.>-~., ._, , . I) '- 1 / / ' L~':'~:n \. ,I EXH'IBIT 10: Example of D.ata From WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI): JUdic.ial Decision To I mp.r i son Proport ions, By Age, Sex" and Crime Type ,1 U 51 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .6.32 .63Z .&32 .632 .632 51 .556 .556 .556, .556 .556 .556 .556 .556 .556 .556 .556. .556 .556 .556, .556 51 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584- 51 .58.3 .583 • 583 .583 .583 .583 .583 .583 .583. .5B3 .583 .583: .583 .583 .583 51 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 •. 620, .620 .620 •. 620 .620 .620 51 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .62,6 .6,26 .626 .6.26 .626 .626 " 52 .478 .478 .47[f' .478 .478 • 4~7B .478 .47B .478 .478 .478 .478 .478 .4?8 .478 61 .713 .713 .713 .713 .713 .713 .713 .713 .713 .713 • i13 .713 .713 .713 .713 1) The Record Layout Is As Follows: 2) The Cr ime Typ.e and' sex cod i ng is deta.i led in Exh ib i t 9 •. w Co 1umns' Data N 3) The number of cards for each cr i me type by sex 1-2 Crime Type should equal the number of age groupings. The 3 Sex number of cards must correSDond to the number 4-9 First Year of Forecast of cards in' data set WYL.OF. PR J. MTA(CO~1MA}. 10-14 II 15-19 II 20-24 II 25-29 II 30-34- II 35-39 II 40-44 II 45-49 II 50-54 II 55-59 II 60-641 II " . 65-69 II 70-74 II 75-79. Fifteenth Vea.r of Forecast \ ,,' L------~-- -~-- "- --...... --~--- - ...... -~---"'- -~---- .. - ---- il (/, . 'I I. (\ = (; " '" , ., ~~ . " 11 '- r I - ,. ------....---' requires the rank ordering of the months to correspond to the seasonality of admissions; that is, the month with the highest number of admissions is i I ! rank 1. Further research ~ warranted to assess !b~ seasonal gattern for I I the admissIons to £.rison. 'l I Finally, the length of stay curves must be read into the program so that / I the individual cohorts can be survived through the forecast. ' These curves 11 are developed by the program WYL.OF.PRI.SURVIVE which is documented in l' 1 l( Appendix /1. Again, ~ ~ ~ input, ~ curves shoUld be reassessed II ,Erior to ~ update of the ~. IlJ t i The calcUlations that produce the forecast are rather straightforward once " .I the input has been prepared. The annual forecast of new admissions is simp Iy the product of each age by sex and cr ime aggregate of the three input matrices: the population forecast, the conviction rates, and the ;" judicial decision to imprison proportions. The program allows the option of printing a report on the forecasted annual admissions by sex and crime type. '- Utilizing the seasonality vector in the data array MONTH the forecasted annual admissions are spread back over the year. This calculation produces a 180 month admi ss ions forecast. The program a II owsthe opt ion of pr i nt i ng this monthly forecast , ' The next assumption necessary prior to the final calculation of the \1 ' forecast, is the recognition of each forecasted monthly admission as a cohort, ie, a group that has a life course unique unto itself as a result ", of the month in which it came into being. This assumes a more accurate ref lee t i on of rea I i ty with in the mode I. Each cohort is survived through the,forecast period. The number remaining and the number released in each month of the forecast is recorded for each c;;' cohort. The forecast of new admissions from the court subpopulation is . " ~hen the sum of the number remaining and released across the 180 cohorts that appear in the forecast • o ,I , =--=--=-l\ J ;1 , oj 33 1 . ,. --=----.~- -•. -- ,,-.--, .---,~,,--,-,,--,--,,~--,------'-- -- -.-' .-- ll. " Vi . ------.- EXHIBIT 11: The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(NEW ADMIT) The Forecast of the New Adml ss ions From the Courts t' of prddLlc 1ng two " __ I LtB(NEWAOMIT) has the op Ion • The program W'lL.OF.PR • __ _ _ b' f anhual neW ~dmisslOn5 , _ _ 0 - re art shows the num er 0 dIfferent reports. ne p - _ _ .. The oth~r report shows • by sex and type of crIme. , from the collrts to pr Ison . _ hurts by sex arid type of tJSI~ L . . dmiss ions from t e co __ 1- IINEWADMIT JOB (,,99,O,,01),FELIX,lIME=(,6~),MBGLEVEL=(1,1) the number of nionth 11' new a , _ 11 s 26 and 274 I f I ti I SP2 2. II EXEC FORG1CLG,REGION=500K -. h for these reports are on ne 3:~ /7F0 R,r ~ SYSIN DD * crime. The SWltc es,: h1 foreeast admission report. 4. DI HENSION 1POP (3,15, i 3) , COMI1 IT (9,2,1;3,15) , AJDI (9,2,13,15') , - '1- 1 b '0 output for the mont y _ -- - II II C' = 0 there WI en. "1" In place of the o. oJ • 1 IFORE(15,2,67),R(2,12,13),ICRNAM(28,15),LABEL(9,2,156) • - __ _ b t' ned oh by enter I ng a _ _ ,__' 6. DIMENSION NPUT(29',NAGGC9,2,2",IDUT(2,t2,26),IOUT1(3,3,12,13) Either sWlt~h can e ur •. _ . _ F PRI LIB{Nl:WAOMIT) geh~rateS , - ts are deSIred WVL.O. • 7. DIMENSION RJDI(3,12,t3),RJDP(3,12,13),IPOP1(234,15) Whether or ,~ot the repor __ rile __ $OPPFM.V1986.NEWADMIT. 8. DIMENSION NCOMM(9,2,13 1 15),HADIM(10,3,t4,15),MADH(10,J,180) the J~utput subpopu 1at I ~n forecast 9. DIMENSION MONTH(12),IWORK(9,2,lS0),IREL(2,9,2,130), , I to. *BREAK(10,2,lS0),NAD1(10,3,14,15) 1 t • DATA RJDI 1468*0.01 ,RJDP 146B*0.0/,NCOMM 13510*01 WVL.OF.PRI.LtB(NEWADMIT) follows and is listed as t 2. DATA IPOP IS8S*0/,COMHIT 13510*0.0/, AJDI 13510-0.0/, . The progr~~ listirg for l 13. 4 IFORE 12010*0/,R 1312*0.0/,ICRNAM 1420*' 'I,LABEL/2BOB*' '1 Exh i b It 11. t 4. DATA NPUT 129*01 ,NAGG 1436*0/,IOUT 1624*0/,10UT1/1404*0/, 15. * IPOPI 13510*0/,NADIM 16JOO*0/,HADH 15400*01 t 6. DM A I IJORlf 13240*01, I REL I 6~lBO*O/ , 36. IPOP(.j,1,9): IPOP(J,I,9) ... JFORI: .43. '=::. 116 CONTINUE 44~ no 117 KK = 41,55 45. IPOP(J,I,12) = IPOP(J,lr 12) + IFORE(I,J,KK) 46; 117 CONTINUE 47. 112 CONTIIWt 48. 111 CONTINUE I' , 49. READ(~,12) «(ICRNAH(I,J),J = 1,15~,1 = 1,28) 34 50. 12 FORMAT(15Al) -- , o 35 -.... ------.. ).--.. ------. , ------.'--.--~------"---.""::~-::---'l ~~----.--.------"'-= I~ ----:--...... --~.,...... c> \'11- , ) \\ () • Exhibit 11: Continued 1 Exhibit 11~ Continued , v J 03. no 6?O .1=1.2 51, (I(i 140 Htf:::;1,18 104~ DO 67'/ j-{;'I,14 105. "....'! ) .• -RFMH:'5. 'l4l(NPUT ., <:.l -. , " 1 I " --~ ,,------c.: l (J d~ Exhibit 11: Continued I Exhibit 11: Continued ".--- I' 157. 622 CONTINUE 158. 621 CONTINUE 159. 620 CONTINUE 19-7. 830 DO 650 1=1,911 160 .. DO ()SO J=-I, 2 198. ItO 652 .J=1,2 f(::j 16J. DO 681 r 180 199. ILO=1 c" 162. IIO 682 1=1,9 200. 641 L=O 163. MAIIM (10 ,J,K )=MADM (1 O,J"KH-MADM~ I,J,K) " .. :- 201. DO 642 IA=ILO,180 164. 6B2 CONTINUE I fi. 202. L=L+l 165. 681 CONTINUE 203. IWORK(I,J,IA~f«FLOATCMADM{1,J,ILO»)*BREAK(I,J,L»+.5 166. 680 CONTINUE 204. 642 CONTINUE . 167. IIO 695 1=1,10 205. ISUI1=O ;;-168. DO 696 K=I,180 206. ICOUNT=O 1(S9. t D06 }7J=1,2 I 207. DO 643IB=ILO,179 170. MADM(I,3,K)=MADMCI,3,K)tMADM(I,J,h) 20B. IC=IB+l 17L 497 ClONTINUE 209. .,?- ISUM::ISUM+(IWORKCI,J,IB)-IWORK(l,J,IC» 172. 696 CONTINUE 210. IF(ISUM .LE. HADMCI,J,IlO»GO TO 643 173. 695 CONTINUE 211. ICOUNT=IC 174. IFlIDISP2 .Ea. 0)60 TO 830 212. GO;) TO 646 175. LL=-11 213. . 643 CONTINUE 176. L=O 214. IF(ICDUNT .EU. 0) 60 TO 647 177. 820 L=L+l 21'5. 646 DO 644 ID=tCOUNT,180 178. KK=L+13 216. BJORK ( I ,J, ID ).=0 f! 179. IFCL .6T. 14)GO TO 830 217. 644 CONTINUE .. '" 180. LL=LL+12 21B. 647 ItO 648 IH=ILO,17? j, 1B 1 • MM,=LL+ll 219. I6=IH+1 182. WRITE(6,703)CICRNAM(KK,H),M=1,5), , 220-. IRELC2,I,J,IG)=IRELC2,I,J,IG)t(IYORKCI,J,IH>_IUORKCI,J,113» 183. 703 FORMATC1Hl,34X,~ADMISSlON FORECAST BY CRIME TYPE, SEX',IX, 221. 648 CONTINUE ~ . 184. .'ANII MONTH'1111X,'CRIME',16X,'JULY AUG SEPT OCT',4X, 222. lIO 645 IE=1,180 185. "NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE~,2X, 223. IREL(l,I,J,IE)=IRE~(L,I,J,IE)~IWORK(I,J,IE) lB6. *5A 1 ) 224. IIJORK (l, J, IE)'=O 187. 110 831 1=1,10 225. 645' CONTINUE -188. WRITEC6,701)(]CRNAMCI,J),J::l,15) 226. ILO=ILO+'I 189. ItO 832 J=I,3 227. IF(ILO .LT. 180)60 TO 641 190. 228. 652 KKK=J+l0 . I 1'_1 L MM) CONTINUE 191- WRJTE(6,704) (ICRNAM(f.{HK,M),M=1,6) r(I'lAtIl10,J,K),\-_ ,7 , 229. 650 CONTINUE 192 • :f: NAD1 38 39 , o ;' I . , r';' '~f'-'~'<~,- _. __ ,_..Jl,,_ !... Exhibit 11: Continued Admissions Due to Parole Failure " ' HURDER 1 Two. subpopulatlons are forecasted that consist of individuals who were '240. ,': 241 • MURDER 2 j:l,reviously released from prison on parole and' subsequently returned to 242. MANSLAUGHTER lI 24j. SEX CRIMES prison as a .result of parole failure. The subpopulations are differ 244. RCBB;RY ,1 entiated on the basis of the agency that initiates ihe~return to prison 245. ASSAULT j I 146. PROPERTY CRIMES ) I e i therthe courts or the parole board. The strategy· of two separate 247. DRUGS ) subpopulation forecasts for parole failure stems from the obse'rvation that ;. OTHER FELONIES 248. xl 249. -,' ALL' CRIMES \. the length of stay patterns are substantially different depending on th~ 250. MALE ,; 1 agency of readmission. Exhibit 13 presents the 'lgOrithm which details the 251- FEMALE (\ ! 1 . . \ 252. TOTAL '( approach taken in forecasting admissions due to parole failure. Simply 253. f'(-82 stated, this approach calculates the annual releases from all subpopu iS4. FY--83 ! ,i lat ions, uses th is base to ca lculate ctflnua 1 admi ss ions, d ivi des these 255. FY-B4 i 256. F'i-B5 admissions by agency, releases these admissions and".then uti 1izes the new 257. FY-S6 I 258. FY-87 I round of releases to calculate the next forecast cycle. The forecast is 259. f'(-BB i calculat~ first on an annual basiS and subsequently broken out to a 2bO. FY-89 ~ ! 26.1. FY-90 monthly forecast. 262. FY-91 263. FY-92 264. FY-93 Several·· files are, required in the calculation of the parole failure 265. FY-94 forecast (see ~xhibit 2). The source program, ~YL.OF.PRI.LIB(PAROLEES), 264· FY-95 . r ~ FY-96 is presented in Exhibit ,.14. Three external files are accessed' by the 267. -:::;'. 26B. 11 1 112 program WYL.OF .PRI.L1B(PAROLEES), they are WYL.OF .PRI.SURVIVE, $OPPfU". 269. 12 1 112 21 1 112 Y1986.BASEPOP, and $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMIT. The latter two datasets are the 270. , 271- 22 1 112 results of the subpopulation forecasts discussed above while. the former is 272. 31 1 112 273. 32 1 112 the length of stay distributions. ~ 274. 41 1 112 275. 42 1 112 276. 51 " 1 1 2 4 5 7 8 910101112 Several'sets of Input are included in the program file. Two input data 52 1 112 <,; 277. s~ts are found in the DATA statements. The vector MS contains the monthly 2?8. . 61 4 1. -\ 2910111:?12 .', . (, 279. 62 1 112 0 release pattern (line 14). The vector MREM cpntains the monthly remaining 71 7 1 1 2 4 5 7 a 9101011111212 280. pattern (line 15). Two small data sets follow the source program as card 281. 72 1 112 282. 81 1 i12 a image input. The first of these is the historical releases for the last 2~3. 82 1112 five years, with sex and crime detail. The second is the recidivism rates 284. 91 1 112 285. 92 1 112 which has similar detail. .40 ' 41 ';j'i , , ., . I . ~. ? I ,\ ._------, ,", :" Exhibit 12 presents an example worksheet that is .filled in by the program aO WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(PAROLEES). Note that a workshee:t is comple'ted for each sex and cr ime type., The first 'task of thesubpopu lat i'on' forecast is to in it i a I i ze the worksheet. ,Ut iIi zing the a I ready generated forecasts for the basepopu)ation from $OP,PFM.Y1986.sASEPOP and the new admi,ssions from \\ the court from $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMIT the first two columns of both those remaining and those released are filled in. In the case of Iremaining in prison' this process ,is a straight transfer of data from these files. That i's, every twelfth figure is tr'anferred to the worksheet. The' number released per year is the, result of the sunv:natioh, acros~ months, .of the particular year. ,It is this sum that, is transferred to the worksheet as the number released., The actual calculation of the forecast is described below. The same , calculations are repeated for each year of the forecast, consequently, only the first cycle wil.l be described. The first major calculation of the forec~st is annual admissions. This calculation uses two data sets that are found in card image immediately following the source code in Exhibit 14. The first data matrtx, historical o releases is located in 1 ines 340 to 349. The first five rows represent rna I es, and the second five rows rep resent rema I es.· The co I limns of data refer to the. type of cr ime and are ordered I eft to right as murder 1, . , murder 2, mans 1aughter, sex offenses, assaul t, robbery, property cr ime, \ drug offenses, and othercr\mes. The rows within the male and female segments represent fiscal year; the first row being FY1977 and the fifth row being FY 1981. Each cell in the matrix represents the number of releases by sex and type of crime for a specific year'. \ The second data matrix, recidivism rates, is located in lines 350 to 367. This data set is structured as shown in the following example: 1 P' 42 .' ~ , Ij' " .' (.~ " . " / . ,. ,. . _-__ ------.------::·:n::D... ~:~=__..=:" ,= __ .====-=--- .. -.~, f,~, ,:.~ .. - . , , :, .t,, •.,',: 'j,' }:,;"it;, t, '. 'L'~",': EXHIBIT 12: Example Worksheet That is Calculated By the Program ~/YL.OF.PR·,.LlB(PAROLEES) .' ,,; CRIME = SEX = NUMBER REMAINING BASE NEW 1982 1982 1983 1983 .. 1995 1995 TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL POP ADMITS COURT BOARD COURT BOARD COURT BOARD COURT BOARD TOTAL 1982 1983 I I I, I 1995 t NUMBER RELEASED ID ! BASE NEW 1982 1982 1983 1983 1995 1995 TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL POP ADMITS COURT BOARD COURT BOARD COURT BOARD COURT BOARD TOTAL 1982 I 1983 I ., t \ 199.5 t , \ ~ '1'}. ~ '- tt, b' " (/ V ~ ,.,' ~ ------,._-_.. .- -'-'---'" I' , " c? o , - .. 0 . .D $I I - , . -' .... ------...... ------~:;m ___~::...... _=_-_-~~_ EXHIBIT 13. Algorithm Depicting Calculation of Parole Returnee Forecast EXISTING READ INITIAI,.IZE MONTHLY MONTHLY --_.. 'REI:.EASE POPULATION' DATA CAI:.CUI:.ATI ON' REMAtN'I'NG' MONTHLY fo4' "- OF NUMBER PATTERN PATTERN FORECAST REMAINING I,N ITI ALI ZE NEW ADMISSIONS CALCULATION READ 10- .. /-- FROM THE ... OF NUMBER CALCULATE CALCULATE COURTS MONTHLY DATA REL~ASED " ~OURCE SPECIFIC SOURCE SPECIFIC FORECAST r ANNUAL FORECAST~.... MONTHLY FORECAST OF NUMBER OF NUMBER CALCULATION REMAINING 'REMAINING OF FIVE YEAR ~ \. FULL YEAR RELEASE RELEASE READ HISTORY - YE S CALCULATE CALCULATE HISTORY DATA SOURCE SPECIFIC SOURCE SPECIF~C ~ ANNUAL FORECAST MONTHLY FORECAST CALCULATION I OF RELEAS~S ---....~ OF, NUMBER OF ANNUAL RELEASED ADMISSIONS . AVERAGE READ DI,IE TO ANNUAL ... PAROLE FAILURE NO RECIDIVISM DATA ADjUSTMENT RATES OF ANNUII\L DD~ NUMBER DIVISION'. BY FORECAS REMAINING ADMISSION. YEAR E.) • . SOU~CE = 1 LENGTH OF READ it ,..." o STAY DATA 0 ~ CURVES CALCULATE DISK FILE OF DISK FILE OF SOURCE MONTHLY FO~ECAS MONTHLY FORECAS SPECIFIC OF REMAINING OF REMAINING + NUMBER AND RELEASED AND RELEASED . REMAINING JHRU THE PAROLE THRU THE COURTS ANNUALIZE t, . BOARD CURVES CALCULATE\r"" \ SOURCE . SPECIF'I'C RELEASES '.:. t ______~-- ______~- " , " o ,1 • - ! • , .. , '. fI, i . , k J ..... ~-. .~--~- , ,t:l ::3",--'~'''' " , , - .. , .• ~ '<., .. 1- • ,l,.tf'. ... • >!'~ Years past release from prison 1 2 3 4 5 \; ~103 .026 .071 .116 .184 Male murder 1 .092 .037 .019 .024 .031 Fema 1e " .102 .063 .037 .016 .011 Male murder 2 , i Female I Male manslaughter o! Female , I ;:) Each cell in this matrix represents the percentage of persons who return to prison after release by crime and sex for one year past release, two years past re 1ease, ••• , and so on. The historical releases aree,used to prime the mo~e1. That is, for the parole returnee cycle to work readmissions must be calculated 'for each year of the forecast. In the first year of the forecci:st (FY 1992) readmissions for each crime and sex category is the product of releases and 1;he corre sponding recidivism percentage. For, example, of the 22 manslaughter offenders releas,ed in FY 1977" 2.4 percent are returned to prison in FV 1982, which after rounding equals one readmission. This calculation is then repeated for assaultive releases in FY's 1978, 1979, 1980", and 1981" The sum of all of these products equals the readmiss,'lons for male assaultive offenders in FV 1982. For FV 1983 the histp'rical releases matrix is incremented by one year; that is, FY 1977 Is 0ropped ,and u~lng , , the estimated releasees FY 1982 is added. This cycle cont·inues throug,hout the forecast. By FY 1987 the historical rele~~e matrix is no longer used. , .. o • I" The annual admissions due to parole fal lure, as calculated above, are divided into those coming from the courts and those coming from t~~ parole / board. The current (March, 1982) version of the program ~/YL.OF.'~~I.LlB (PAROLEES) has .3333 of the admissions designated as comIng froin tile courts. In order to vary' this proportl,oned program line number 69 may be altered. Prior to the next major calculation, where the annual admissions due to parole failures -are released, the forecast program seJects an annual /' . 45 = o . to ;I I . , ----....,----- , --. -,~---.. -.-.-. '" ~ --'''''::';''''::':;::;;;'"~~~':';':--''.:''-;;''""'-''-''~''''- <" '. ,.::::-.,...... - u"' __ ~!. .. -~ __• __.... ~k',., __ ..._~,~ _._~_._ . __ , ...... ~,~ __ c=_ .. +-...... _.'-"'",._. ,_~<.", ". __-",- ... ",,",.~ _~~ •• ~"" ._~',_'_~b.~"_~. o-...... ~ ",. "~_.p.....,...._~""""""";..;~,-,-<-..u.-,",,,,,--__ ~_ Exhibit 14,,: Th e Program L"lstlng Of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(PAROLEES) l~ngth of stay distribution from the monthly length of stay distributions I, found in the, data set WYL.PF.PRI.SURVIVE~. For those return.ing via' the i courts a separate length of stay pattern is used for each type of sex crime I 1- IIPAROLEES JOB (,,99,0,,01),fELIX,MSGLEVEL=(1 11 category. For those returning via the parole board, unique parole violator 2. II EXEC FORG1CLG,REGION=500K,TIHE=5 ' ~ 3. IIFORT.SYSIN DD * . ~ length of stay patterns ar,e used for rna 1es and females. 4. DIMENSION HATRIX(9,2,2,15,35),IBA~E(10 lBo~J?) NEWPOP(9 180 ? ?) .l." 1 IRLSE(2 20 9) , ,~, .... , , , .. , .. , 6. ~ ",RTNRTE(2,9,5),BLOS(IQ,2,182),NDIF(15), The strategy for forecasting the releases ifo built on a calculation of the 7. ;,2 IRTN (2,9), NCOUR1 (2,9) ,NBOARD (2,9) ,CURVE (2,10,,15), 3 KYORK1(2,2,9,16),KYORK2(2,2,9,16),MB(12),IP(12), number remaining in 'prison at the end of the fiscal year of those who 8. 4 ICOURT(2,9,2,180),IBOARD(2,9,2,180),HREMCI2) 9. ehtered atapprox imate ly the same time. The reI eases then become the DAT,1 MATRIX 118900*0/, lBASE 17200*0/, NEIJPOPl6480*O/, 10. 1 IRLSE 1360*0/, RTNRTE 190*0~0/, BLOB 13646*0.0/, difference between those remaining in a future year and those remaIning in 11. 2 IRTN 118*0/, NCOURT 118*0/, NBOARD 118*0/, CURVE 1300*0.01 If, 12. the year just prior. The numberremainin~ and the number of releases for 3 KYORKI 1576*0/, KYORK2 1576*0/, IP 112*01, 1 13. 4 ICOURT 16480*01, IBOARD 164BO*0/,NDIF/15*0/, work~heet. 14. each forecast year are then transferred to the The numbers are ," 5 HS 19,10,1,6,2,4,3,5,11,12,7,81, 0 15. specific to sex, crime type, agency of admission and forecast year. /:; MEt! 13,5,7,6,B,4,11,12,1,2,9,101 16. READ(5,10) (C(IRLSECI,J~K),K=1,9),J=I,5),I=1,2) 17. :" -:;" 18. READCS,11) (CCRTNRTE(1,J,K),K=1,5),J=1,9),I=1,2) READC10,12) «CBLOS<1,J,K) ,K=1 ,182),J=1,2) ,1=1 ,lOt,)' , This process will repeat itself until fifteen year;; worth of annual data 19. READ(1',13) «(CIBASE(I,J,K,L),L=I,2),K=I,2),J=I,1tO)J I=I,10) have been produced. The particular results of each cohorts experience are 20. READ(12,13) ««NEUPOP(I,J,K,L),L=1,2) K=1 2) J~f 1Btt~ 1=1 9) :21. 10 FORMAT<9I4) , , , , :' , then summed to produce the two subpopu I ati on annual forecasts., Ut iIi zing 22. 11 FORHAT(5F4.3) the data input through the vectors MS and MREM the program breClks the 23. 12 FORMAT(24F5.3/24F5.3/24F5.3/24F5.31 24. annual, figures out to monthly figures. 111e monthly forecast of remaining j 24F5.3/24F5.3/24F5.3/14F5.3/) 25. 13 FORMAT(2Il0) and re'l eased return i ngoffenders who are processed through the parol e 26. DO 100 ICR = 1,9 27. b'oard are entered on the disk fHe $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD. The monthly DO 101 ISEX = 1,2 28. DO 102 rYR = 1,15 f'orecast of remaining and released returning offenders who are processed 29. HATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,IYR,t) = IBASE(ICR,(IYR*12) IBEX 1) 30. MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,IYR,2) = NEUPOP(ICR,(IYR*'2),ISEX,1) t:hrough the courts are entered on the disk f i 1e OPPFM. Y1986 • COURT. 31. CONTINUE 32. CONTINUE 33. l1he program listing for WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(PAROLEES) follows and is 1 isted as CONTINUE 34. DO 103 ICR = 1,9 5xhibit 14. 35. DO 104 ISEX = 1,2 36 .. MIN = '/ 37. MAX = 12 38. DO 105 IYR = 1,15 39, DO 106 NYR = HIN,HAX 40. MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,2,IYR,I) ~, 41. = MATRIX (ICR,ISEX,2,;Fft, 1) + I BASE (I CR, NYR, I SEX;~ 2) 4'h. MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,2,IYR,2) 43. = MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,2,IYR,2) + NEYPOP(ICR,NYR ISEX,2) 44. 106 CONTINUE 1 45. MIN = MIN 'I- '12 46. 46 MAX = MAX '*' 12 47. lOS CONTINUE 49. 104 CONTHWE t 49. ; 103 CONTINUE I ~ , 47 ;, . , c' ~ .. %::f-~~-'--''--'''----~~-'.~--.,--.- a ~ ~ I 1 I , . "'':i;' ,-,::;1.':' ~----~------....------:::~~::------ , ,- !? ~- ·,~,-;;r:-~::'1L.:..:::.:.::..:..:..-:.:;:=:.::.:::;::,:..~~..:::--"";!..-,,;,,,_~~:::>;~.~~~;=,;,;::.!.t...:.....:-...... :...-"'-"'-~",,,;::.;..."'-'-""'-_--7 .... ~'-... ~~~.-.,-- .... Exh,ibit 14: Exhibit 14: Continued Continued () 103. 120 CONTINUE ---_._-,.- -. 50. N =,5' 104. 118 CONTINUE 51. HATYR = 1 105. 117 CONTINUE 52. _-HROIJ = 1 106. DO 123 ICR = 1,9 1 53. KCOL1 = 3 107. DO 124 IBEX = 1,2 '54. KCOL2 :: 4 lOS. DO 125 ISTAT = 1,2 , :55. 109. 300 DO 107 ICR = 1,9 LLYR = 1 i j >56. DO 108 ISEX = 1,2 110. 111. DO 127 IYR = MATYR,15 1 57. JYR = N ~ MATRIXCICR,lSEX,ISTAT,IYR,KCOL1) I fiB. 112. = MSUM = 0 KYORK1(ISTAT,ISEX,ICR,LlYR) 59 .• DO 109 IYR 1,5 113. = Ll YR = lLYR + 1 I 60. MSUM = (FLOAT ,.. J \ . {' '(: Exhibit 14: Continued Exhibit 14: Conttnued 211- DO 155 NROU = 1,15 1;56. IF(N .IT. 20) GO TO 300 212. JJ = 1 I j 1;57. DO 138 ICR = 1,9 i 213. 304 .I l'S8. DO 139 ISEX 1,2 IFCHATRIX(ICR,ISEX,2,NROU,34) .EO. 0) GO TO 303 nj = 214. II = HSeJJ) a DO 140 ISTAT 1,2 '. ';59. = 215. IP(II) = IP(II) + 1 i '1 60 • DO 141 NROtJ = 1,15 216. t HATRIX(ICR,ISEX,2,NROW,34) MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,2,NROW,34) - 1 i 1:61 • DO 142 ICOl = 3,31,2 217. = 1:62. HATRIxeICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROY,33) = JJ = JJ + 1 218. IF (JJ .EG. 13)dJ = 1 I ':63. 1 MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROW,33) + f 219. GO TO 304 % 1,64. 2 MATRIXCICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROY~ICOl) .i; 220. 303 I DO 156 11M = 1,12 ~ 1'65. 142 CONTINUE 221- o IBOARDC2,IGR,ISEX,CMM+lITTlE» = IP(MH) ,~66. DO 143 lCOL = 4,32,2 222. 156 CONTINUE Ii! 167. MATRIXCICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROW,34) = 223. LITTLE LITTLE ~ 12 168. 1 MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROY,34) + = 224. 'I ',69. 2 MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROW,ICOL) DO 157 NN = ,12 225. IPOlN) = 0 II! 170. 143 CONTINUE 226. 157 CONTINUE t?1 • 141 CONTINUE 227. 155 CONTINUE 172. 140 CONTINUE u 228. 154 CONTINUE J 1-73. 139 CONTINUE 229. 1S} CONTINUE t 174. 138 CONTINUE 230. DO 158 !CR = 1,9 1'75. DO 144 ICR = 1,9 231- DO 159 ISEX = 1,2 176. DO 145 ISEX = 1,2 232. I 177 • DO 146 ISTAT = 1,2 NDIF(I) ~ MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,1,34) II 233. DO 160 NROY = 2,15 II t78. DO 147 NROW = 1,15 234. 179. HATRIX(ICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROW,35) = NDIF(NROU) = MATRIXeICR,ISEX,1,NROW,34) /1 235. MATRIXC)CR,ISEX,1,(NROU-1),34) l80. 1 HATRIX(ICR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROW,33) + 236. 181 • 2 MATRIXCfCR,ISEX,ISTAT,NROtJ,34) IFeNDIF(NROUl .LT. 0) NDIFeNROW) = 0 237. 160 CONTINUE 0 147 CONTINUE 182. 238. LITTLE = 0 183. 146 CONTINUE 239. 'r;ONTINUE DO 161 NROW = 1,15 184. 145 240. JJ = 1 185. 144 CONTINUE 241- 306 186. DO '148 ICR = 1,9 IF(NDIFCNROW) .EG. 0) GO TO 305 242. n = HREM(JJ) 187. DO 149 ISEX = 1,2 243. \1 IP o .'. Exhibit 14: Continued 266. > .... _, .. _._ •• 167 CONTINUE_ .1 ~67. 166 CONTINUE I 319. 181 -eOtri' I.,HUE 268. 165 CONTINUE 320. 180 C,ONTINU£ ~69. 'DO 168 ICR = 1,9 321. 179 CONTINUE 270. DO 169 ISEX = 1,2 322. YRITE(6,55) ~71 • DO 170 IPER = 1,15 323. 55 FfRHAT(IX,'ICOURT') ~72. IBOARD(1,ICR,ISEX,(IPER*12» = MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,IPER,34) 324. UR~TE(6,54) ««ICOURT(I,J,K,L),L=I,180),I=I,2),K=1,2),J=1,9) 273. 170 CONTINUE 325. W~'lTE(6,58) 274. 169 CONTINUE 326. 59 FORHAT(IX,'IDOARD') 475. 16B CONTINUE 327. URiTE(6,54) «(CIBOARD(I,J,K,l),L=1,t80),I=I,2)1K=1,2),J=1,9) 276. .-DO 171 ICR = 1,9 328. ~RITE(16,500)««IBOARD(I,J,K,L),I=I,2),K=I,2),L=t,180),J=I,9) 277. DO 172 ISEX = 1,2 329. ~RITE(17,500)«(CICOURT(I,J,K,L),I=I,2),K=1,2),L=1,180),J=1,9) 278. NDIF(1) = HATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,1,33) 330. 500 F(IRMAT<2Il0) 279. DO 173 ·NROIJ;: 2,15 331. 54 FORHAT(15(IX,1217/)/) ~80. NDIF(NROIJ) = MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,NROY,33) _ 332. STOP 281. 333. END 282. MATRIX(ICR,~SEX,1,(NROW-1),33) IF(NDIF(NROW) ~LT. 0) NDIF(NROIJ) = 0 334. IIGO.FT16FOOI DD DSN=OPPFM.YI986.BOARD,DISP=(OLD,KEEP,DELETE) 283. 173 CONTINUE 335. I IGO.FTI f}~~01 DD Dstt=OPPFM. YI986.COURT ,DISP=(OLD,KEEP,DELETE) 284. LITTLE = 0 336. IIGO.FTltF001 DD DSN=OPPF".Yt986.BASEPOP~DISP=SHR 2.85. DO 174 NROU = 1,15 337. IIGO.FT12F001 DD DSH=OPPFH.Y1986.NEWADKIT,DISP=SHR 486 • JJ = 1 338. IIGO.FTtOF001 DD DSH=UYL.OF.PR1.SURUIUE,DISP=SHR ~B7. 308 IF(NDIF(NROU) .E9~ 0) GO TO 307 339. IIGO.SYSIN DD * 288. II = MREM (JJ) 340. 6 11 22 61171 91873 192 43 289. IP(II) = IP(II) t 1 341. 6 14 25 88 211 1351050 205 54 490. NDIF(NROIJ) = NDIF(NROW) - 1 342. 6 26 2B 102 192 155 960 206 77 291. JJ = JJ + 1 343. 2 23 34 118 232 169 980 163 38 292. IFeJJ .Ea. 13) JJ = 1 I 344. B 35 40 95 251 151 921 115 65 293. GO TO 30B 345. o 4 6 0 9 7 56 25' 2 294. 307 DO 175 MM = 1,12 346. o 3 2 0 9 10 80 28 2 295. ICOURT(1,ICR,ISEX,(MM+LITTLE» = IPeMM) 347. 1 7 3 2 13 14 85 30 2 296. 175 CONTINUE 34B. () 3 2 1 8 6 67 31 7 497. LITTLE = LITTLE + 12 349. o 1 6 0 14 4 79 12 4 298. DO 176 NN = 1,12 350. .103.026.071.116.084 299. IP(NN) = 0 351. .G92.037.019.024.031 300. 176 CONTINUE 352. .102.063.037.016.011 30t. 174 CONTINUE 353. .109.085.048.027.017 302. DO 775 L = 1,15 354. .133.099.053.028.024 303. NDIF(U = 0 355. .123.101.055.020.011 304. 775 CONTINUE 356. .181.114.056.028.018 305. 172 CONTINUE 357. .098.094.061.023.021 ~{)6. 171 CONTINUE 358. .173.095.044.020.011 307. DO 776 ICR = 1,9 359. .070.040.040.040.015 q08. i/ DO 177 ISEX = 1,2 360 •. .070.040.040.040.015 309. DO 178 LL = 2,180 361. .070.040.040.040.015 310. ICDURT(l,ICR,ISEX,LL) = ICOURT(1,ICR,ISEX,LL) + 362. .070.040.040.040.015 311. ICOURT(1,ICR,ISEX,(LL-l» 363. .070~040.040.049·015 312. 178 CONTINUE 364. .070.040.040.040.015 313. 177 CONTINUE 365. .079.064.039.024.027 314. 776 CONTINUE 366. .079.064.039.024.027 ~15. DO 179 ICR; 1,9 367. .079.064.039.024.027 316, DO 180 ISEX = 1,2 > 317. DO 181 IPER = 1,15 318. ICOURT(1,ICR,ISEX,CIPER*12» = MATRIX(ICR,ISEX,1,IPER,3J) 53 52 " II , 7 I .. -~ ~--.-"-'» -,-.. ~,-,-""----.~~-"~-.--.,... .. -~ .~, -~ '--"-_.>-.- 'II , o .... , hri'T / .\, . .... - '- Exhibit 15: Exampl e of lithe Report Produce.d by WYL .OF • PRI • LI B(WRITER) --~ "--~----. THE REPORT WRITER I TABLE 1. FORDETAILEO MURDER REPORTI. ON THE PRISON" POPULATION FO~ECAST. FISCAL YEA •• , ...-, .... An @mportant/:/-----~ part of any forecast Is the presentation of the reports In a useful format. The current version of the report writer allows the analyst , FISCAL YEAR 1982 ' <" to se I eot from two pr i nted reports. The 1'1 rst report 1st It led, "Deta i1 ed A. THE tlAlE POPULATION Report on the Prison population Forecast, Fiscal Years 1982-1995, for all REMAINING RELEASED II~ PRISot~ THIS t10ttfniliH'JR~E~MA~I~N~!N~(;f'IN PRISON ~R~e~l~E"~S~E~Dru~~~~~_~~MfL THIS 110NTlI REMA!HU!G RelEASED __ off eM e types. "Exh I bit 15 pre sen t s a page of th I s report. The second JULY IN PRISOU THIS tlONTH AUGUST SEPTEHBER report is titled, "Pr i soners released and remaining by cr ime and sex: e~SE POPUlATIOH • 220 o 219 1 219 o (JUNE, 1981) i982-1995. 11 Exhibit 16 presents a page of this report. [' NEW POPULATION ,3 o 6 j o 9 o FROM THE COURTS The process for writing the reports Is rather straightforward. The four PAROLE RETURNEES 1) o o o 2 o subpopuja forecasts are read Into a workspace. Totals are calculated VIA THE COURT o o o o 1 o tion VIA PAROLE BOARD o o o o 1 G across the dimensions of crime type, sex, subpopulation and status, that TOTAL 223 o 225 1 230 o is, either remaining in prison or released. The remainder of the program OCTOBER NOYEMBER DECEtlBER BASE POPULATION 219 o 218 1 218 o is primarily concerned with formats for reports on selected items. (JUNE, 1981) Nm PQPULATION 12 Q 15 o 18 Q rft program II st I ng for WYL.OF .PRI .LIB(Wt\ITER) follows and I s II sted as FROM THE COURTS e 2 o 3 o '3 o I 1 o 1 o 1 o Exhibit 17. 1 o 2 o 2 o I 233 o 236 1 239 o JANUARY FEBRUARY HARCH 218 o 217 1 217 o i (JUNE, 1961) -_\r, , ~EW POPULATION 21 0 I\ROt1 THE COURTS 0 24 " \ '3 '3 ____ 0 __ ----ci~R~O~L~E~R~E~TU~R~N~E~ES~------!_------!_------1~------1o~----~2~7~--VIA THE COURT 1 0 1 ~~rO \);~A PAROLE £lOARD 2 0 2 0 ~ 0 _ T01:AL 242 247 0 .,... 1. '. ~~I ::::~ __~~~~O __~~~ __ ~~~~ ____ ~ ! APRIL JUNE BAS~\ POPULA noN' 216 1 215 1 __.)..!( J:!!::lJHE, 1981) i" NEW \~OPULATION 30 o 36 0 i __F_R_m-.J1 Tue COURTS j, 1 1 PARO~~ RETURNEES '3 0 , ,~ VIA ftlE COURT 0 0 VIA BOARO 1 0 3 ___-.J j1A~OLE, 2 0 0 , 1ii _____ t, \ " ~_-_._-= __ ,-~---~---~l~--~~~2 \ 54 ~ '\ ~ ~ 55 .. , \---~-.....-.,,-(,) -- . -;-; . r / . " . I c I ------~~~----~------.-~ -" ~ .... ---~ -~~---- Exhibit 17: The Program listing of WYl.OF.PRI.lIB(WRITER). Exhibit 16: Exampl e of the Report Produce.d by NYL. OF. PRL UB (HRITER) o .", (j 9 • PRISONERS RELEASED AND REMAINING BY CRI~IE ~,NO SEX: 19a2-1995 ... _-,_._.--- ..... -. - ,=~ _____~F:::=Y:--,1982 FY 1983 FY 1984 FY 19.§fi FY fra.6 FY 1987 L CRIME REl1 -REL REI1 REL REM REL REM REL REM REL REM REL 1- 2. ~~WRi~~~ ~~:G16LG::E~io~~;o~~LIX;TIHE=(,09),HSGLEVEL=(1,,) NURDER 10 3. :;..' IIFORT.SYSIN DD * « HALE~~~-----2~5~4---~5~~28~6---~5~~3~17~---5~~3~45----5 376 3 401 6 4. FEUALE 16 0 18 0 19 1 20 .1 22 o 24 o DIMENSION MDINS(11,180,3,6,2),ICRNAM(11 50) NUH(19 6) TOTAL 270 5 304 5 336 6 365 6 : 398 3 425 6 5. 6. DIMENSION IBASE(10,180,2,2) NEijPOP(9 180 2 2) , '-":::.' DIMENSION lCOURT(10,180,2,2) IBOARD(10 180'22) 7. *IYBINS(1',15,3,6,2) , '" , ~URDER II. 8. HALE 252 2 283 17 319 15 344 23 ,.363 29 373 38 DATA HBINS /71280*0/, lCRNAH 1550*~ ~/, NUH 1114*~ '/ FEMALE 9 0 10 1 12 0 12 2 13 1 13 i 9. TOTAL 261 2 293 18 331 15 356 25 376 30 386, , 41 10. DATA IBASE 17200*01, NEUPOP 16480*01 DATA ICOIJRT 17200*01, IBOARD J72001l:0/, lYBlNS /5940*01 Ci c-~) 11. HAHSLAUGHTER 12. READ(5,~OO) CCICRNAH(I,J),J = 1,50),1 = 1,10) , I READ(5,201) «NUMCI,J),J = 1,6),1 = t 19) ~IALE 122 31 129 44 143 40 155 46 163 52 165 59 13. FE~!AL'e 7 10 8 3 9 284 8 3 7 4 I READ(12,202) (i(CIBASE(I J K L> L-1 2)K-' TOTAL 129 41 137 47 152 42 163 50 171 55 172 63 \ I 14. READ(13 202) ««NEWPOpci ~' , -_, , -1,2),J=1,lBO),I=t,10) , I 15. READ(14:202)««ICOURT(I,J;~~l~)[~;1~~)~~;'~~)~~;';'80),~=1,9) SEX CRIMES.. 16 • READ(15 202)««IBOARD(I J ' _' ! " ,80),1-1,9) l'lALE • 839 80 915 134 973 168 1036 181 1093 206 1157 2;1.9 17. 200 FORHAT(~OA1) , ,K,L),L-1,2),K~t,2),J=1,lBO),1=1,9) FE~I'\LE 9 1 12 1 16 0 18 2 19 3 19 4 18. 201 FORI1AT<6A1 ) TOTAL 848 81 927 135 989 168 1054 183 1112 209 1176 223 19. i 202 FORHAT(2Il0) "1 { 20. IDISP=1 I ROBBERY. 21. IDISP1=1 1 -HAl.E. 942 178 100S 216 1034 256 1067 268 1098, 286 1145 282 22. FEMALE 44 12 44 17 51 10 48 22 52 16 53 20 DO 101 I = 1,9 \ I 23. TOTAL 986 190 1049 233 1085 266 1115 290 1150 302 1198 302 hI I DO 102 J = 1,180 j 24. K = I I DO 103 1,2 I . l 25. ! \1 ASSAUL'r. ! DO 104 L=1,2 HALE 719 114 779 177 823 209 873 220 936 225 990 250 : 26. 1 I MBINS(I,J,K,1,L) = MBINS(I,J,K,l,L) .+ IBASE(I,J,K L) f FEMALE 27 11 29 10 28 12 26 13 25 12 27 11, I 27. 1 -rOTAL~~------~7rr4~6-~1~2~5---8~0~8-~18~7r-~8~5:1~~2~21r-~8~9~9--~2~3~3--~961 237 1017 261 I 28. HDINSCI,J,K,2,L) = HBINS(I,J,K,2,L) ~ NEUPoP(l J ~ L) I I HBINS(I,J,K,4,l) = HBINS(r,J,K,4,L) + ICOURT(I;J;K;L) I I 29. , I MBINS(I,J,K,5,L) MBINS(k J K 5 L) IBo R PROPERTY CRIMES. 30. = i I MBINS(I,J,K,3,L) = HBINS(y'J'K'4'L) + A D(I,J,K,L) tfAle 1825 859 1914 959 1996 968 2058 990 2099 1020 2142 1032 I ! 31 • \\ HBINSCI,J,K,6,L) = HBINS(1'J'K'1'L) + MBINS(I,J,K,5,L) ! FHIALE 85 54 102 56 100 74 101 74 104 73 106 76 i TOTAL 1910 913 2016 1015 2096 1042 2159 1064 2203 1093 2248 1108 32. )) * + MBINSJJ~J,f(,3,L> ' , " + HBINS(I,J,K,2,L> I, 33. 1/ . f 104 " CONTINUE" <> j I f 34. 103 CONTINUE .. ! DRUGS. I HALE 177 83 196 97 214 111 235 122 250 138 267 150 35. 102 CONTINUE FH1ALE 23 14 26 14 24 21 2.9 18 31 21 32 23 36. 101 CONTINUE 10 ! -10lA[':-.------~'O'O--97-- 222 111 i35--13r-26tfllI6--2in--159--~99 -173 I 37. DO 105 J='1,180 I i 38. I DO 106 K=1,2 i OTHER fELONIES. 39. DO 10? L=1,6 :!rru:e~~~~----~94r.---~5~2--~1~2~3--'5ry6--~12M8'---8~7~-'1~39n---~92-' ---1·~58n---A98n--'1~77~~1~11~ " 40. FEHALE 625 5 4 5 4 4 S 455 \DO 109 11=1,2 ? 41. I! TOTAL 100 54 128 61 132 92 143 96 163 102 182 116 42. .)I1BINS(11,J,K,L,M) =MBINS(10 J K L H) , ~ I HBINS(10,J,K,L,I1)=O ' , , , I, r 43. i DO 109 1=1,9 . ALL OF'FENSE TYPES. 44. HALE 5224 1404 5630 1705 5947 1859 6252 1947 6536 2057 6817 2147 44.1 109 lco:~::~~10,J,K,L'")=MBINS(10,J,K,L,M)+MBINS(I,J,K,L;H) :1 FEMALE 226 104 254 107 263 125__ g~_6 _J:!!.o__ !t~~,~_~Sl,(>---1!tL I 45. '\'~ TOTAL=------;:-;S4so-Tso85084 1812 6210 1904 6518 2087 6815 2190 7103 2293 108 CONTINUE' i'ld 46. 107 CONTINUE Jl 47. '41' 106 CONTINUE :~I l , 56 ·1 57 1 --;\ "'; u ~ ..... -----~- ,. ---.... ------~-=-=o=== . 'j 7 \ •. = , , D 7), ,., ~--~~~~~~~~s~---.------...... ----~---- .. ------.. ----.. ----~--~------.. -W~ __" ______" ______"" ______" ____""" ______~ __~ ____"j&~e,,------~ Exhibit 17: QContlnued 107. 306 Fi)~HAm2X, -'BASE" POPtJLAfION-' , 7X, 15,-8X ,15,7)(,15, ex, 15, Exhibit 17: Continued lOS. 7X,I5,8X,I5/13X,'(JUNE, 1981)'/) 109. WRIT£(6,307) MBINS(I,J,K,2,1),HBINS(I,J,K,2,2), 11 O.e 1 MDINS(I,(J+1),K,2,1),MBINS(I,(J+I),K,2,2), 48. t05 CONTlNUE DO 110 1=1,11 111. 2 HBINSCl,(J+2),K,2,1),MBINS11,(J+2),K,2,2) 49". 112. 307 FORMAT(12X,"'NEY POPULATION"',8X,I5,8X,IS,7X,IS,8X,I5, 50. DO 111 J::l,1BO 113. 7x,I5,aX,t5/12X,~FROM THE COURTS~/) 51- DO 112 L=I,6 DO 113 M=1,2 114. WRITE(6,30B) HBINS(I,J,K,3,1),HBINS(I,J,K,3,2), 52. 115. MDINSCI,(J+1),K,3,1),MBIHSCI,(J+1),K,3,2), 53. DO 114 K=I,2. _uBINr(l J 3 L M)+MBINB(l,J,KrL,~} MBINS(I,J~3iL,")-nO , r , , v 2 HBINSCI,(J+2),K,3,1),HBINS(I,(Jt2),K,3,2) 54. 114 116. 55.. 113 CONTINUE 117. 30B FORHATC12X,'PAROLE RETURNEES',6X,15,BX,15,7X,I5,8X,I5, cONTINUE 118. 7X,IS,BX,IS) - 56.112 IJRITE(6,309) MlIINi3CI,J,H,4,1) ,1113INS Exhibit 17: Cohtinued *IYUNS (!,6,J ,6 l ) IYIUNS( 1,6,J,6,2) , IYBINS (I,7, J ,6,1) , t ~ HISTORICAL ANALYSIS' 168. I 169. *IYBINS(I,7,J,6,2) £ , i 170. 703 FORHAT(2X,6Al,10X,7(2X,I5,~t,I5» i I '.",,- 171. 716, CONTINUE ~' The first phase of the prison populatio~ projection focused on the analysis 172. 715 CONTINUE of historical trehds and relationships. 'A great deal of interest centered 173. YRITE(6,704) , RISONERS RELEASED AND REMAINING BY CRIHE/,IX~ 174. 704 FORHAT(IHl,JOX, P ,.' 8 F¥ 1990',6X, on the rol~ of demographics. Consequently, the changing size and compo *'AND SEX: 1982-1995'1112lX, FY 19 F¥ 1994',6X, 175. 'l sition of the state population over the last decade was to be analyzed in '176. .'FY 1991 FY 1992 FY 199 REI! REL' REW,4X, , .'FY 1995'/1Xt'CRIKE',lhX,'REH REL REM REL') \ 177 • RE~EH the context of the chang i ng pr i son popu I at ion. Two other trends of i .'REL REM REL REM REL ~ 178. DO 717 1=1,10 interest were part of the criminal justice system itself, these being the 179. URITE(6,702)(ICRNAH(I,MM),HH=1,20) 180. convic~' rate (measured a;' the rate of corrmitment to the Department of DO P18 J=I,3 g 1-81 • Corrections) and t'he probability of imprisonment after conviction. Th'\9 182. ij . J~;~;~~6,7(3)(NUH(JJ,HH),I!M=I,6),IYB~:~~I;85J~6;;), / 183. ~ost useful presentation of these three series is in a format that decom- *lYDINS(I,8,J,6,2),IYBINS(I,9,J,6,1);~Y~~BINS~I'1~,~,6:1), 1 184. ~ I 185. *IYBINS ( 1,10, J, 6, 1~ , ~~;i:; ~ ~' ~ ~' ~,!: 1) : I YBINS (I: 12,J ,6~~,_<, poses the aggregate numbers along the dimensions of sex, age and crime type j *IYBINS(I,1',J,6,2 , YBIUSn' 13' /6 2) IYIHNS :~~- I' I '" .. f " .., , :J'". .. --'1 .~"" ...... ~. ,:, ,,. '. EXH IBIT 18: Algorithm that produces the reports for the analysis of Historical Trends and Relationships. . " AGGREGATE . POPULATION READ INTO 12 FORECAST DATA MAJOR AGE, I-- GROUPINGS HISTORICAL AGGREGATE 0 ALONG THE SUM FOR CONVICTION READ TOTALS IN AND .. ... DIMENSIONS DATA oAGE EACH DISPOSITION DIMENSION DATA oCRIME oSEX " " READ oYEAR LABELS: .. DATA oDI SPOS ITI 01 CRIME RE-AGGREGATE READ AT RI SK POP '0 .!!' AGE GROUP DATA AND CRIME LI MITS - -- DATA ALONG THE AGE c .. DIMENSION r; READ ,- AGE GROUP ."'" DATA LABELS r.' PRINT REPORT - SWITCHES FOR . 711 PRINT DI SPLAYS REPORT PRINT (~:=:= " YES., HISTORICAL ::;'" (/ ." . / 'i ~TMENT NO RATES #2 PRINT '\':- YES .. HISTORICAL ., JI " END JUD1y'DECISIONS \~: t· Q NO f c ./1 I • , J , , " ii .D d ii . ,. " ... -~-~----=------=-=-----= . ;t i . ,. ·.. ------ The first major operation in the production of the reports for historical analysis is preparation of the at risk population data. The program WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(HISTREPT) reads the historical population from the fi Ie WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(HISTPOP). The popUlation data used in the historical analysis is a special subset of the file created by the Washington state population projection system1s option OUTDAT • .:) , The single yer of age data in the file WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(HISTPOP) is re organized int~ twelve age groupings. These age groupings are; 16-17, 18, I ~ 0 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39 and 40-~4.'\TheSe groupings \. \1, represent the maximum age detail available to the anal\~sis."1 The procedure \ II for regroup i ng the data a long other age group gu i de~LP&s is exp I a i ned below. 'The next operation is the reformatting of the historical inforrl1ation' on commitments and judicial decisions. Exhibit 19 provides a det~i led illustration of the input dataset WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(OOCHIST). These data o are provided by the Department of Corrections. The operation undertaken is " the reorganization of the data into a five dimensiona~ data array. The' dimensions are crime type, disposition, sex, year and age. The next step in the production of historical reports is the reading of the age groupings. This input begins in line 382 of the source prog~am which is displayed in Exhibit 20-. The first two columns are crime type. The " second two are the number of age groups. The next 26 fields of two columns J" ' .. each contain, in pairs, the lower then the upper limits of the age groups. '0 It is through this set of cards that the analyst gains flexibility in his analysis Qf the popUlation composition. f' After completing the three preparatory procedures the program combines the data with formatting instructions to produce the printed reports. '. G ". (; Examples of the reports are presented in Exhibits 21 and 22 • .= Co , it (':? , , 63 . 'J ,,- , r i --.- ----~------______------:~~M-C<=-=-=~==.-=-=~= ~~-~.,-) i . . "":~" EXHIBIT 19: Sample of Data in the File WYL.OF.PRI .DATA(DOCHIST) 70 1 17 1 1 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00011 00000 00000 00000 70 1 17 1 2 00000 00001 00000 00000 00002 00001 00009 00000 00000 00000 70 1 17 2 1 00000 00000 00000 00000 00001 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 70 1 17 2 2 00000 00000 00000 00000 00002 00001 00001 00000 00000 00000 70 1 17 3 2'00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00002 00000 OQOOO 00000 .. ;) () 70 1 17 4 2 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00001 00000 00000 00000 70 1 18 1 1 00000 00000 00003 00002 00000 00003 00210 00029 00004 00000 70 1 18 1 2 00000 00000 00000 ,00001 00004 00002 00053 00004 00002 00000 ',:' 70 1 18 2 1 00000 00000 00001 00000 00003 00001 00012 00000 00000 00000 ~70 1 18 2 2 00000 00000 60001 00001 00002 00001 00006 00001 00000 00000 70 1 18 3 1 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00004 00000 00000 00000 70 1 18 3 2 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00002 00000 00000 00000 70 1 18 4 1 00000 00000 DOOOO 00001 00000 00000 00003 00000 00000 00000 70 1 18 4 2 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00001 00000 00000 i.".Y 70 1 18 5 1 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00001 00000 00000 00000 70 1 18 5 2 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00001 00000 00000 00000 0 70 1 18 6 1 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00005 00000 00000 00000 COLUNNS DATA DESCRIPTION COLUMNS DATA DESCRIPTION +:>'" 1-2 YEAR 27-31 MANSLAUGHTER COUNT 3 BLANK 32 BLANK 4 SEX 33-37 SEX CRIMES COUNT 5 BLANK 38 BLANK 6-9 AGE 39-43 ROBBERY COUNT 10 BLANK 44 BLANK 11 RACE . 45-49 ASSAULT COUNT 1! v '12 '" BLANK 50 BLANK 13 DISPOSITION 51-55 PROPERTY COUNT 1= IMPRISON 56 BLANK 2= PROBATION 57-61 DRUG COUNT 14 BLANK 62 BLANK 15-19 ,,) MURDER I COUNT (I 63-67 OTHER FELONY COUNT 20 BLANK 68 BLANK 21-25 \ MURDER I I COUNT 69-73 OFFENSE NOT REPORTED if 26 BLANK " f) \' \1 (i o I; o , ,...... ~, " o i' - . 1'· . to / ;I I (.!:7 ... " / ii \1 . -~--.. ----.-....~-- " EXHIBIT 20: The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) 1. IIHISTREPT JOB 1,,99,O,,01),FELIX,TIME=(,09),MSGLEVEL=(1,1) 2. I II EXEC FORG1CLG,REGION=500K 3. IIFORT.SYSIN DD * 4. DIMENSION INDATA(15),ICRIME(11,3,3,12,lJ),IPOP(3,12,13), 5. 1 IFORE(12~2,67),R(2,12,13),ICRNAH(11,50),LABEL(1jf2,156) I 6. DIMENSION NPUT(29),NAGG(11,2,27),IOUT(2,12,26),IOUT1(3,3,12,13) Ji i 7. I', DIMENSION RJDI(3,12,13),RJDP(3,12,13) If ,I B. DATA RJDI 1468*0.01 ,RJDP 1468*0.01 \ 9. I, DATA INDATA 115*01 ,ICRIHE 115444*01 ,IPOP 1468*0/, r 10. 4 IFORE 11608*O/,R 1312*0.0/,ICRNAM 1550*~ '/,LABEL/3432*~ ~I r . , i ) ) 11 . \ DATA NPUT /29*01 ,MAGG 1594*0/,IOUT 1624'0/,IOUT1/1404*01 i I 12. , INrrA TA (1 =YEAR; 2=SEX; 3=AGEj 4=RACE ;5=nISPOSITION; 6THRU15=CRIME J II , I n If ~ HUR1,HUR2,MANSLAT,SEX,ROBBERY,ASSAULT,PROPERTY,DRUGS, . I , L~ I 13. f : i 14. C~ OTHER FELONIES,NOT REPORTED I j~ 15. c~ ICRIME(CRIME,flJSPOSITION,SEX,YEAR,AGE) , , 16. C \ IPOP(SEX, YEAR, AGE> t l"ci , 1 17. C ~IFORE(YEAR,BEX,AGE} I 1 1B. C ~R(CRIHE,SEX,YEAR,AGE~ I / 19. i, IrrISPl = 1 1 ! 20. \ IDISP2 = 1 ! 21- READI12,11)«(IFORE(I,J,K),K = 1,67),J = 1,2),1 = 1,12) ! 22" DO 111 J = 1 r 2 23. . DO 112 I = 1,12 If 24. IPOP(J,I,1) = IFOREel,J,17) + IFORE(I,J,1B) I I 25 .. DO 113 K. = 2,8 ! 26. IPOPIJ,I,K) = IFOREeI,J,(K+17» 27. 113 COHTINUE Ig 28. DO 114 KK = 26,30 { t.J • 29. IPOP(J,I,9) = IPOP(J,I,9} + IFORE(I,J,KK) . I 30. 114 CONTINUE i I 31. DO 115 KK = 31,35 , f 32. IPOpeJ,I,10) = IPopej,I,10) + IFORE(I,J,KK) "I .. 33. 11 CONTINUE ! 34. DO 116 KK = 36,40 J. 35. IPOP(J,I,11) = IPOP(J,l,11) + IFORE{I,J,KK} I 36. 116 CONTINUE i 37. DO 117 KK = 41,55 I o 3B .. IPOPIJ,I,12) = IPOP(J,I,12) + IFORECI , J 1 KK) JfI q . tf ' 39. 117 CONTINUE 40. 112 CONTINUE ir <:~ 41 • 111 CONTINUE } 42. DO 118 I = 1,2 c. 1 43. DO 119 J = 1,12 1 t 44. DO 120 K = 1,12 ,,;\\ 45. IPOPII,J,16) = IPOPCI,J,13) + IPOP<1,J,H) I ,. (> ~I II 46. 120 CONTINUE ' " 'I 47. 11,9 CONTINUE rJ'tii, "' ~ . 48. 119, CONTINUE ( I"1 ,-# I' '., 65 t i,i =- .~ ", . , . , ' It _., ". / 1 I -:'1, ...... ,.,- -~- EXHIBIT 20: Conti EXHIBIT 20: Continued 49. DO 121 J = 1,12 50. ItO 122 H = 1,13 51. IPOP(3,J,IO = IPOP(1 "J,K) + IPOP(.2,J,\O 105. 134 CONTINUE 52. 122 CONTINUE 106.13~5 CONT:rNUE (; 53. 121 CONTINUE 107. 132 CONTINUE 54. DO 100 II = 1,1991 108. READ(S,12) (CICRNAM 66 1(· - -,;.:- 67 ;::Z:='"---w:> .. .P ~~ . , '. . / 5 I • ",. r r --:J. '~ 0 i ~.~ , .. j o !i 1 o '19" I ®"! '- \ I , ' , .. l, of 1 rf Lt.t I i \ ,1 (I ,\ .0 0;\ a I " .0 if" " '\ " f " , ,:.; n , (~ y:>; " 0 () o (7,• ::) G " ;I '\ '\ 'J ('\" EXHIBIT 20: Continued EXHJBIT 20: Contfnued IFCISEX .ElL 1),WRlTE(6,84) 160. 217. IFOWRPS .EG. 8 .AND. MYR' .ED. :5) G() TO 365" 161- FORKAT(3X,'A. HALE POPULATION'!) o 21)~. IF(NGRPS .EG. '8 .AND. HYR .EG. 10) GO 1n 365 162. !F ,. ,.. I (I EXHIBIT 20: Con~inued EXHIBIT 20: ContinueS 274. IF(ISEX .EG. 2) WRIT&(,',42) 275. 42 FORMAT(3X,'B. FEMALE POPULATIONf/) 276. IF(ISEX .EG. 3) WRITE(6,43} ", 43 FORMAT(3X,'C. MALE AND FEMALE POPULATION COMBINED'/) 277. 331, 302 I ~ (NGRF'S" • NE. 2 j GO TO 304 " ~' 278. IF(NGRPS .GE. 3) WRITE(6,44) If(NGRPS .EG. 2) WRITE(6,70) 332. tHII IE (6, iB) (LABEL< N, ISEX, LGRP) , LGHP=L'( ,L2) , 279. 3.33. (LABELCN,ISEX,LGRP),LGRP=L3,L4), 280. IF(NGRPS .EO. 1) WRITE(6~71) FORMAT(10X,2(-,AT Rllm '," RATE PER"',2X)/10X, 334. 78 FORMAT C5X 1 ,'''AGE'' , "l4X, J2A"1 , 20(X, "12A1J f) 281. 70 2('POPULATION COMMIT"ENT~ THOUSA~D',2X» 335. no 351 IYR=1,12 'c " 282. FORHATctOX,t('AT RISK RATE PER',2X)/l0X, 336. 14RITE(6,n) ~M ~ IDUT( ISEX, IYR, IIA), lOUT II SEX', IYR, (IIA+J», 283. 71 l{'POPULATION COMMITMENTS THOUSAND',2X» \ 337. R·t IBEX, lYR ,NNA>, IOUTOSEX, IYR, (UA+2) ), '284. FORHAT(10X,3C'AT RISK RATE PER',2X)/iOX, 338. 2 IOUT<:£SEX, IYR, (IIA+3» , R( IBEX, IYI~, (NNA+1 ) ) - 44 285. 3('POPULATION COMMITMENTSTHOUSAND',2X» 339. 73 FORMAT(3X,I4,5X~I7,5XfI7,3X,F6.3,5X,I7,5X,I7 3X F6.3) 286. 340. MM = MM + t ' , , 287. WRITE(6,80) IF(NPAGE .EG. 1) GO TO 303 341- 351 /C,ONTINUE 288. 342. /'MM~.9?O NPAGE = 1 289. 343. WRITE('&,76) NNA 1 290. = 344,,, GO TO 1:5B 291. IlA ::: " NCT ::: 0 345. 304 WRIl'EC6,79) iLABEL(N,ISEX,LGRP),LGRP::L1,L2) 292. 346. 79 FORMAT(3X,'AGE',14X,12A111) 293. L1 ::: " L2 = 12 347. no 352 lYR = 1,12 294. 348. WRITE(6,74) "MrIOUT(ISEX,IYR~IIA),IOUT(ISEx,IYR,(IIA+l» 295 .. L3 ::: H , R(ISEX,IYR,NNA) , L4 :: 24 /1 349. 296. \( 350. 74 FORMAT(3X,I4,5X,li,5X,17,3X,F6.3) 297. L5 :;: 25 L6 ::: 36 351- 11M = itM + 1 ';;c 298. 352. 352 CONTINUE 299. MM ::: 1970 FORMAl'(/) 353, 11M = 1970 ,300. 80 3~54 . WRJTE(6,76) 30~5 IF (3-NGRPS) 100,301,302 Jot. 355. (] GO TO 1~~B 300 WRITE(6,77) (LABEL(N?lSEX,LGRP)~LGRP:::Ll,L~), 302. (LABEL(N,ISEX~LGRP)~LGRP=L3,L4), 356. 301 WRITE(6,77) (LABEL(N,ISEX,LGRP),LGRP=Ll,L2), 303. 1 (LABEL(N,lSEX,LGRP),LGRP=L5,L6) 357. (LABEL(N,ISEX,LGRP),LGRP=L3,L4), 304. 2 FORMAT(3X,'AGE,,14X,12Ai,20X,12Al,21X~12All/) 358. 2 . (LABEL(N,ISEX,LGRP),LGRP::L5,L6) 305. )17 359. DCI 353 IYR::: 1 ~ 12' " "l1 L 1 + 36 306. = 360. WRITE(6,72) MM,IDUTCISEX,IYR,IIA),IOUT(ISEX IYR (IIA+1» 307. L2 ::: L2 + 36 L3 = '-3 +:36 361- R(ISEXfIYR,NNA),10UTCISEX,IYR,(ilA+~», ' 308. 362. 2 IDUT(ISEX,IYR,CIIA+3»,R(ISEX,IYR CNNA+l» 309. L4 = L4 + 36 L5 = L5 + 36 363. 3 lOUT(ISEX,IYR,(IIA+4»,IgUT(ISEX,;YR,CIIA+~» 310. 364. 4 R(ISEX,IYR,(NNA+2» , 311- L6 = L6 4- 36 DO 350 IYR::: 1,12 365. MM = MM + 1 3'12. WRITE(6,72) "M,IOUTCISEX,IYR,IIA)~IOUT(lSEX,IYR,(IIA+1», 366." 353 CONTINUE 313. R(ISEX,IYR,NNA),IOUT{ISEX,IYR,(lIA+2», 367. MM = 1970 314. J~ IOUt(ISEX,IYR,(IIA+3»,R{ISEX,IYRf(NNA+1)~, 36B. WRITE(6,?6) 315. 2 IOUTCISEX f IYR,(IIA+4»,IOUTCISEX,IYR,(IIA+S», 369. 138 CO'N TINUE 316. 3 '; 3?0. DD 145 :C:: "1,2 4 R(lSEX,IYR,(NNA+2» , ' "317 • FORMAT(3X,I4,5X,17,5X,17,3X,F6.3,5X,I7,5X,I7,3X,F6.3, 371 • ''=- DO 146 J:: 1,12 318. 72 372. DO 147 K::: 1,26 319. 5X,I7,5X,I7,3X,F6.3) MM = 11M + 1 373. lOW (I f J , 10 ::: 0 320. 474. '14? CONTINUE 350 CONTINUE 321. 375. 146 CONTINUE 322. 11M = -1970 II ,376. 145 CONTINUE WRITECcS,7b) \\. 323. Y DO 4'10 1::: '1,2 FORMAlU f) 377. 324. 76 '-' 378. J NNA = NNA t '3 DO 411 = 1,12 325. 379. DO 412 K = 1,13 Q 326. "MaRPS = MGRPS 3 IIA IIII 'j., 6 380. IHI.J.IO = 0.,0 327. = CONTINUE ., .~" NCT = NCT + 1 381. 412 328. If(NCT .EO. 3 .AND. NGRPS .GT. 0) GO TO 305 382. 4'11 CONTINUE 329. GO TO 303 383. 410 CONTINUE 330. 384. 137 CONTINUE , , 70 i) -, 71 o 0<, ~ -J , l'';' \ ,..".=--=,,",_0 _.__ ...... ,---_.. , , ... _------,._." .•. \) II, • ; <1 j ( / _------....;-;;...'_' ______.-....:._~'--- __..:..... ___~~."'--:.'~,c" EXHIBIT 20: Continued EXfM B IT 20: Continued WRITE(6,22) «(IPOP(I,J,K),K=1113),J~1,12~II=113) 38'5. c I, 386. C22 FORMAT(lX,13I8) '/8IB/) I 11 FORHAT(7X,9IB/IOI8/1018/10IB/10!B/1018 15 1X» 442. 32 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 FOR MAT (I2, 1X 1 I 1 , 3X , 12, 1X , 11 , 1X , I 1 , 1X I 10 ( I , 388. 10 443. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 389. STOP 444. GROUP 13 1 445. 41 5L£SS THAN 18 1.8-24 2:~-39 40 AND Ol)EI~ TOTAL GRIJUP 6 I 390. I 391- ~~~~:~~~!~~~1 ~~ ~;~:~~t:~~:~~i:~:~:~~~~~~~~~:~i~~:;~~ 446. GROUP 7 ~ROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 392. 447. GROUP 13 ! IIGO.SYSIN DD :I' 448. 42 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL~ GROUP 5 GROUP 6 ( 393. MURDER 1, EXCLUDING PAROLE RETURNEES. 394. 449. GROUP 7 GROUP a GROUP 9 GROUP 10 dROUP 11 GROUP 12 f MURDER 2, EXCLUDING PAROLE • I 395. RETU~NEES. 450. GROUP 13 , MANSLAUGHTER EXCLUDING PAROLE I{ETlJRNEES. 451. 51 BLESS THAN 18 18-20 21 ~2:5 24,-29 30'-34 ~ 35,-39 3%. SEX CRIMES, EXCLUDING PAROL~ RETURNEES. 452. 40 AND' 0YiER TOTAL GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP j"1 GROUP 12 !i' 397. ROBBFRY EXCLUDING PAROLE RETURNEES. 398. 453. GROUP 13 ,.~ 1 EXCLU~ING PAROLE RETURNEES. 399. 454. 52 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 I ~:~~~~~~ CRIMES, EXCLUDING PAROLE RETURNEES. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 I I 400. I 455. , Exel UDING PAROLE RETURNEES. i 401- . I 456. GROUP L3 ~~~~:'FEL~~IES, EXCLUDiNG "PAROLE RETU~N~ES. 457. 61 BLESS THAN 18 18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 It 402. CRIME NOT REPORTED, EXCLUDING ~ARO~E ~ErURNEES. 403. 458. 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 ~LL CRIMES, EXCLUDING PAROLE RETURNEES. 459. GROUP 13 404. , : I 405. 01104 1 1 21112121313 " 46(l. 62 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER lOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 406. 01204 1 1 211121.21313 461- GRDUf' 7 GROUP B GROUP II GROUP:I 0 GROUP 'II GROUP '12 407. 21 4 I 1 21112121313 462, GROUP 13 I :408. 22 4 1 1 2"11 '12"12'13'13 463. 71 BLESS THAN 18 18-20 21-23 24-29 30-34 35-39 409. 31 4 1 1 21112121313 464. 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 32 4 1 1 21112121313 465. GROUP 13 4.1 O. 41 5 1 1 2 8 91112121313 411- 466. 72 7LESS THAN 18 lB-20 21-23 24-29 30-39 40 AND OVER I 4241 '121"112121313 467. TOTAL GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP lb GROUP 11 GROUP 12 412. 51 8 1 1 2 4 5 7 8 91010111112121313 413. 468. GROUP 13 52 4 1 1 21112121313 " 469. 81 8LESS THAN 18 18-21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 414. 61 8 1 1 2 4 5 8 9 91010111112121313 415. 470. 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 62 4 1 1 21112121~13 , 471. GROUP 13 416. 71 8 1 1 2 4 5 7 ~ 91010111112121313 417. 472. 82 4LESS THAN 18 18~39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 ~ 1 t 2 4 5 7 8 9101112121313 473. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 418. ~~ ~ 1 1 2 5 6 8 9 91010111112121313 419. 474. GROUP 13 Lt 420. 82 4 1 1 21112121313 475. 91 4LESS THAN f9 18-39 40 ~ND OVER TOTA~ GROUP 5 GROUP 6 [ 421- 91 4 1 1 21112121313 476. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 92 4 1 1 21112121313 I 422. 477. GROUP 13 '" 423. "101 4 1 1 2'11'12'12"13'13 478. 92 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER· TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 424. 10241 1 21112121313 ~ ~ 7 7 889 91010111112121313 479. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 I, 425. 11113 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 : ~ ~ : : ~.~ 8 8 991010111112121J13 480. GROUP 13 426. 11213 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 . ~. 'O'AND OVER TOtAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 481. 101 4LESG THAN 18 'I B'~39 40 AND OVER TOTAL Gl~OUfi' '5 GROUP 6 ~ 427. 1t 4LESS THAN .. 18 1B-39 GROU: 11 GROUP '10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 482. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 42B. GROUP 7 tiROUP 8 . - 483. GROUP j 3 429. GROUP 13 1B-39 40 A, ND OV.ER 10TAl GROUP·· 5, .,...,..;z;;:;;;:::~:,-"",,:' o 'J ,4 f ' 1 I EXHIBIT ,21: Example of Report Produced byi4YL.OF.PRLLIB(HISTREPT) EXHIB IT 21: Continued ':'':' , \\ TAB,LE ,2. JUDICIAL ,DECISION TO 1:MPRISON (JDr) OR TO PLACE ON FROBATIONf'~ JDP) ,DURI\~'G FI'SCAL YEARS'1970-1981. MURD~R 2, EXCLUDING PAROLE RETURNEES. TABLE 2. JUDICIAL DECISION TO IMPRISON (JDI) OR TO PLACE ON PROBATION (JDPI DURING FISCAL "-' YEARS 1970-1981, MURDER 2, EXCLUDING PAROLE RETURNEES. _ A. MAL;' ·POPULATION (\ A. M~LE POP~~ ~! YEAR AGE NUI'1BER OF NUNSEI? JO,I NU~IBER TO JDP YEAR AGE GROUP, CO~I~ltTMENTS TO PRISON PERCENT PROBATION PERCENT NUtlBER OF. NU~lBER Jor GROUP COHNITHENTS NUtIBER'TO JDP I TO PRISON PERCENT 1970 LESS THAN 18'-" 1 1 100.0 0 0.0 PROBATION PERCENT 1979 LESS TflM-I 18 18-39 13 12 92.3 1 7.7 1 1 100.0 40 AUD OVER 4 3 75.0 18-39 25 0 0.0 1 25.0 24 96.0 1 TOTAL 18 16 8.a.9 2 11 1 40 AND OVER 11 4.0 TQJAL 11 100.0 0 0.0 o 37 36 97 3 I 2 7 197;1. LESS THAN 18 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1980 18-39 10 19 lQ~.Q Q 0.0 LESS THAN 18 S S 100.0 0 0.0 '/ 1974 LESS THAN 18 1 1 100.0 0 0.0 jI 18-39 25 22 88.0 3 12.0 (+0 ANO ,OVER 4 4 ,100.0 0 0.0 TOTAL 30 27 90.0 ~ ;1(1.'2 ,. I ,1975 LESS THAN 18 2 2 ,f 100.0 0 0.0 18-39 26 24 ~?3 2 7.7 , 40 Af10 OV,ER 9 J? 100.0 o· 0.0 TOTAL 37 ?5 94,6 z 5.4 .;:, 1976 LESS THAN 18 1 1 100.0 ,0 0.0 - 18-39 34 31 91.2 3 8.8 ------~------'"',;. 40 AND OVER 5 4 80.0 1 20.0 .,',' TOTAL 40 36 90.0 4 10.0 " --~~------~------~----~------~------\' 1977 lESS THAN 18 2 2 100.0 0 0.0 18-39 26 23 88.5 3 Ib.S 40 AND OVER 6 6 IocCa 0 0.0 TOTAL 34 31 91.2 3 8.B b . 1978 LESS THAN 18 3 3 100.0 0 0.0 18-39 "I 23 21 91.3 2 8.7 40 AND OVE1~ 4 4 100.0 0 0.0 TOTAL 30 28 93.3 2 6.7 " /:1 C), • I)' ----~--~----~---..----~------~.~~!----~------I,. 0, • , 74 ·\, 75 : , ~F"r-"-'~-----~----~--,--~-'""7---r:r.,7--~-- ___""'''''W=_.~~=_.__ ..... ~ 1- \ , l 'II EXHIBIT 22: Example of Report Produced by WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) GENERATION OF THE LENGTH OF STAY DISTRIBUTIONS The length of stay distfibutions generated by the program WYL.OF.PRI.LIB "HISTORICAL DOC COMMITMENT RATES DURING FISCAL YEARS 1970-1981 FOR are discrete approximations of survival functions that describe "F~GURE ,2. MURDER.2 EXCLUDI~'G" PAROLE RETURNEES. h~LOSPGM) A. M~LE POPULATION toe decay of a prison cohort. Each distribution has 180 points to corre AT RISK RATE PER n . AT RISK RATE PER ATPOPULATIOt-f RISK cmlMITMENTS RATETHOUSAND PER p. OPULATION COMMITMENTS THOUSAND sp~'md' with. the,<:laf --months in the forecast. Each point is associated with a POPULATION COMMITMENTS THOUSAND .------;;-;;-runiiiVEi~---- per~~entage •. he percentage indicates the proportiol1 of the admission ----~7.LESS THAN------1o~39 18 40 AND OVER conor't st i" rema in i ng in pr i son cit that time. ;O 60 l--.O... ___5.2.3ZQ2..5 ~82.7.901L______"(I 1 __0.003Q •. Q14_ -i!ril.!L__-'fJ~fL'L ___~ 0 O'lS.~0 536353 ----1.l0--~'L~i~--2878501. 282936 2 0.007 19i71 66616 O. 542239 9 0.01'1 1 a 004 The dati'l used to develop the length of s~~y distribution are located in the 1972 69343 1 0.014 557247 18 0.032 279835 4 p:o'l!t_ data file WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(RELEASES). ,Exhibit 22, presents an example 1973 69881 0 0.0 585327 25 O. O~!Z 28.!lJl.20 9 0.032 : I,,' i 974 71795 1 0.014 6i2014 26 Q. 0142 279115 GO. 018 from this file. The rows represent th~ length of a sentence in months as 1975 72415 641348 34 0.053 6 0.021 i ~:~i: ~;:~:~ (,.~, 1976 73805 672827 26 0.D39 4 0.014 , q by the EPRD (earl iest possible release date) for 9u'rdel ine cases 1977 75(165 2 0.\)27 7J,liQl8 23_!1!Jl.32 284735 11 0.038 m~.asured 1978 75484 3 0.040 763164 25 0.033 292090 0.023 and the GTRD (good time release date) for nonguideJine cases. The maximum 0 1979 76359 1 0.013 810327 29 . Q.036 300786 37 0.Ql0 \ 1981198Q 7693374118 52 0.0270.065 843441 27 0.032 307524 sentence length in this file.c'·}s 180 month which corresponds to the maximum length of the forecast. Information on those persons receiving a sentence AGE TOTAL longer than 180 months is recorded in line 181 of the file. The columns in this fi Ie represent the ~ifferent types of crime controll ing\) for whether or 1970 882155 18 0.020 1971 892819 II 0.012 not the crime is seen as a guideline or nonguideline crime by the parole 1972 894518 12 0.013 1973 906963 19 0.021 board. The cr ime and sex re lated to each of these co IlJmns is 1 i sted in 1974 937142 30. 0.03~ 1975 963544 37 0.038 Exhibit 22. The number in each cell of this file represents the number 1976 994548 40 0.040 1977 1027972 34 0.033 of persons sentenced under the gu i de I j nr-or nongu i de I tne system who were 1978 1075897 30 0.028 1979 1131613 37 0;033 released or are expected to be released at a specific month. This distri- 1980,.' 1188046 41 0.035 Cr--" 1981 1225083 32 0.026 f.:t bution is based/on approximately 5,000 cases. The~, program " ~. '. see Exhibit 23" reformats the data t~ WYi..OFi~PRI.LIB(LOSPGM), I to cor reliiP:6nd~ to ten ca tegor i es; mu rder I, mu rder II, mans laugh ter I~ sex (~ t crimes, robbery, assault, property crimes, drugs, other felonies, and parole violators. After reformatting the data the program calculates a 11 declining percentage distribution which reflects the percentage of the t 1 "'=. cohort remaining in prison for each month of the forecast. f \ t I ! ! Il 77 , , ". " ? i . ,. o r:"', \ \.'- .-::- EXHIBIT 22: Example of Repor t Produced by \"Y~.OF.PRI,., .LIB(H!STREPT) GENERATION OF THE LENGTH OF STAY DISTRIBUTIONS The length of stoy distributions generated by the program WYl.OF.PRI.lIB ( . COMMITMENT RATES DURING FISCAL YEARS 1970-1981 FOR FIGURE' 1/2. MURDERHISTORICALXDCOLUCDING 2, E PAROLE RETURNEES. (lOSPGM) 'are discrete ~pproXimat Ions of surv i va I func t ions that descr i,~e JI A. n"'ALE POPULATIoH the decay of a pr Ison cohort. Each d i str ibut ion has 180 po i nts to~~.;","'~'(" RATE PER RATE PER ~6P~~~~ION CO~1MITMENTS THOUSANDRATE PER ~6P~~!~ION COMMITMENTS THOUSAND spond with the 180 months in the forecast. Each poind Is associated with a ~6P~~!~ION COMMITMENTS THOUSAND ------~--4(IAiNOOvi~-~---- percentag.. The percentage i nd icates the proportj)on of the a,d,m I ss ion .) .--~ ------"10-39 I 40 AND OVER '.1 cohort sti)) remaining in prison at that time. II' ~ \\';I 19,70 .l1 ___ 0.014_ /1 I 6M{;,9 l_-..O... Ol!1. 13 _0.• oI:! 5 __289.7~O,---,-_ '-1 0.003' !I if "'--li~71 68616 0 0.0 52.37.05.----.10. 0.019 2878::.0 2 0.007 The data used to develop the I ength of stay d i str Ipllt1/ Ion are located I n the 1972 69343 1 0.014--5-36353 9 0.017 282936 1 0.004 1973 6988;;' 0 0.0 542239 18 0. 032 27983~ 4 Q. Q.l!t _ da t a f !),e WYL. OF • I'll J. OATA (RE lEASES) • Exh i bit 22 P r esen t s an 1974 71791> 1 0.014 557247 25 O,Q~ 2.e.O.o.? 9 0.032 ! exampl;f~' --1'975 72415 2 -0.028 5~~Z7 26 0.042 279115 5 0.018 from file. The rows represent the length a sentence in months-as 1976 73805 1 0~~-~6.• 014 '12014 34 0.053 279395 6 0.021 ) ~ t~is ~f 1977 75 l .65 2 0.027 641348 26 ~~(!39 279680 4 Q.OllL-. m~sured by the EPRO (ear!iest Possible release date) for gurdellne ~ses I 1978 75434 :; O. Ol,O 672827 2'3. __C.....o.3'z 22B94270;~ 11 0.038 --1979 76359 1 0.013 77631647~~8 2925 • 0.0360.033 300786 37 0.0100.013 and the GTRO (good time release date) for nonguidellne cases. The maximum 1980 ''-:'~~----f-~ro13--76933 5 0.065 1981 74118 2 0.027 843441810327 27 0.032 307524 sentence length in'this file Is 180 month which corresponds to the maximum - length of the forecast. Information on those persons receiving a sentence AGE TOTAL longer than 180 months Is recorded in line 181 of the file. The columns In \\ . this file represent thJdlfferent types of crime controlling for whether or 1970 882155 18 0.020 1971 892819 n 0.012 not the crime is seen as a guideline or nonguidellne crime by the parole ~. 1972 894518 12 o.op -i973 906963 19 0.021 board. The cr ime and sex re lated to each of these co I umns is Ii sted In 1974 937142 30 0.032 1975 963544 37 0.038 Exh i bit 22. The number in each cell of th is fiT e represents Jhe number 1976 99~548 40 0.040 1977 1027972 34 0.033 of persons sehtenced under the gUideline or nonguldeline system who were 1978 1075897 30 0.028 1979 1131613 37 0.033 released or are expected to be released at a specific month. This distri 1980 11880!!.0 ;/ 41 O.O~? 1981 1225083 '.I 32 0.026 bution is based on approximately 5,,000 cases. The program WYl.OF.PRI.lIB(lOSPGM), see Exhibit 23, reformats the data to correspond to ten categor i es; murder J, murder I I, mans laughter, sex cr imes, robbery, assau It, property cr imes, drugs, other felon i es, and ?-, parole Violators. After reformatting the data the program calculates a dec lin i ng percentage d i str i bO t ion wh Ich ref I ec ts the percen tage of the cohort remaining in prison for each month of the forecast. 11' G if P Ii . ij '.," 76 77 , f / II. ',) (! EXHI BIT 23: , Example From the F i 1eWYL.OF .PRI .DATA(RELEASES) 0 0 0 0 r t 0' 0 0' r O· r (f 6 1 3" o 43 (:) 0 1 10' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 7 0 6 o 37 2 3 0 7 0 0 0 1 1 14 12 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 7 0 5 o 53 2 5 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 5 0 9 1 37 3 4 0 :2 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 7 'I 3 3 35 1 :5 1 7 0 /", 1) '- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 1 6 o 24 0 4 0 5 0 '"' 0 1 2 1 1h- 20 5 0 0 0 0 7 o 12 0 7 'I 47 1 6 0 7 1 ,'- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:/) 0 0 4 0 1 o 12 1 a 1 23 2 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 1 2 1 28 0 2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 7 0 7 0 5 1 4 0 4 0 \ 0 1 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 11 0 9 o '11 2 ~O 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0' 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 (/ 0 0 0 0 9 7 0 4 0 1 0 4 0 1 1 0 9 0 0 0 0 6 1 13 0 7 1 7 o 13 0 1 0 7 0 '" I: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 5 1 1() 3 ,J 1 1 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 6 5 1 0 0 3 0 7 0 19 2 8 o 20 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 11 1 13 0 4 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 0 2 'I 8 o 17 1 15 2 11 0 0 0 0 I, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 0 6 0 3 0 0 1 0 D 4 0 1 3 1 3 2 0 0 1 2 0 8 o 26 1 8 0 7 0 1 0 2 0 ""-J 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 0 9 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 co .J FIELDS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15'16 17 18 19 20 2J' 22,,-2..3 .:,\ 0 FIELD DATA DESCRIPTION FIELD DATA DESCRIPTION ,. 1 MALE MURDER I J - NonguideJine 13 FEMALE SEX CRIMES Gu ide line Jj;, 2 MALE SEX CRIMES II 14 MALE ROBBERY II 3 MALE ROBBERY 15 FEMALE ROBBERY II" " 4 MALE ASSAULT 16 MALE ASSAULT II (.1 5 MALE PROPERTY II 17 FEMALE ASSAULT II , " 6 MALE PAROLE VIOLATOR II 18 ,!)MALE PROPERTY II o ] HALE OTHER II 19 ~"FEMALE PROPERTY/OTHER II ,if 8 MALE MURDER II - Guideline 20 MALE DRUG II .- 9 FEMALE MURDER II II 21 FEMALE DRUG II .,. 10 MALE MANSLAUGHTER II 22 MALE PAROLE VIOLATOR II \ II 11 FEMALE MANSLAUGHTER 23 FEMALE PAROLE VIOLATOR ~< 12 MALE SEX CRIMES II " . , " u " <\-) ~) \ , , I' . , " ' n - ,\ "I I 1\ EXHIBIT 24: The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(LOSPGM) L 1 • /ILOSPGW JOB ("99,0,,Ol),FELIX;TIME=(,09),~SGLEVEL=(1,1) 2. II EXE~ FORG1CLG 3. IIFORT.$YSIN DB * 4. DIMENSION LOS(182,23), LOS1 (182),LOSOUT(12,1B2,2,2),LOS2(2,1B2,12) ( 5. D1MENSION RL~S3(10,2,182),RLOS4(10,2,182) 6. DATA RLOS3 13640*0.01 ,RLOS4 13640*0.01 7. DATA LOS 141B6*0/, LOSI 1182*01, LDSOU~ 18736*0/, LOS2 14368*01 B. RiEAD( 12,200) «LOS(1 ,J) ,.1=1,23) ,1=1,181) 9. 200' FORMAT(2313) 0 10. DO 100 J = 1,23 11 • 1'1, o DO 101 I = 1,h.'11 12. LOS1CI) = LOS(l,J) 13. 101 CONTINUE i\ 14. DO 102 I = 1,181 ! \ , , ., 15. LOS1(IB2) = LOS1(lB2) + LOS1U) I '\ 16. '102 CONTINUE 17. DO '/03 I = 1 ,182 1B. LOS(I,J) = LOS1(1) 1'9. 103 CONTINUE ~J 20. DO 120 L = 1, 1 B2 21. LOSI (l) = 0 22. 120 CONTINUE ( 23. 100 CoNTINUE 24. 'J DO 104 I = 1,IB2 ! 25. C MURDER I 26. 1 --, f LOS2(1,1,1> = 0 1 27. c MURDER U ! 2B. ! LOS2(t,1,2) = LOS(l,1) + LOS(I,B) ! 29. c MANSLAUGHTER 30. LDS2(I,I,3) = LOS(1,10) F 31. c SEX CRIMES ! 32. LOS2(!,!,4) = LOS(I,2) + LOS(I,12) !I 33. C ", ROBB~RY 34. ,LOS2fl,I,5) = LOSO,J) + LOS , " t.;,?:;< .0' , o ~. '). -··'-~~·-'·~'-'-~~===-=------==-=---c-,~---·o-~"------~-~------______==~~_~ r I . ,. ; '"' I ' " ! t .... ~ '.' EXHIBIT 24: Continued 50. LQS2(2,I,6) = LOS(I,17) ,I) 5i- LOS2(2,I,7~ = L~S{I,19) 52. LOS2 (2,1,8) = UdH 1,21 ) 53. LOS2(2,I,9) ~t6S(J,'9) 54. LOS2(2,I,10)~~LOS(Ii23) 55. 104 CONTlNUE 5b. DO 121 :£ = 1,2 57. DO 122 I = 1,1~ ,1 58. DO 123 J = 1,181 59. C URITE(6,70) RLOS3(K,I,J) ,LOS2(I~J,K),LOS2(I,la2~K) 60. 70 FORI1AT .> • J fi' o , ct. 80 o 81 o ,. p , --"0 , ;j , . .'" r,JC; . \ ~ , , .' . ------_ .. ~::J. ~ " , ' .' '; .. , .. --,-, . • 1 ". <, ,~..... ~. ",' • '.I...... - • """ PART 2: USER AID Part 1 of this document focused on the description of the prison popUlation I forecast computer model. In th is earl i er section the fi Ie structure, program discriptlons, program algorithms, and the actual listings are lr ! 'I provided. Furthermore, it was pointed out that the computer model is a I 'I multiphase process inv91vlng seven programs, eight input data files, four i j! 1 subpopulation foreca~;t files, and two reports. The computer model allow? I f '. I (i Part II of this document deals with how to run, update, and test alterna II tive assumptions for the prison popUlation forecast model. The ability to I t I update and'test alternative assumptions with the prison p(j.~ulation \ ... '1 I Ii ~ I forecast model is made possible by the computer model's multiphased II i i , I modular structure. The computer model's system of multiple programs and u . __ ~ .__ ___ --; LJ -. -:',--:-'." -"';----:-::;-~--~--.. -.-~ H data sets allows decision makers and analysts to make changes in a single rrI part of the model without affecting the other parts of the model. And 11 " J ~ t thus, produce a forecast based' on a single change in the criminal justice II II! 1 '. ! system. On the other hand,.it is possible to produce a forecast that lf i. i , requires many changes throughout the computer model • ''- ~ i I 1 I I () I The programs for the computer model were developed in Fortran IV (Gl) on I! 1 the Washington State University Amdahl computer - which is also known as i I " I Service Center II in the' Washington State Data Processing system. This ! ! I: I .. "User Ai d" presentat i on descr j bes the methods necess'ary for operat i ng the prison population fofecast model, but it does not provide a comprehensive ·f G t explant ion for the use of the Washington State University Computer Service t Center1s interacti_ve system -- WYLBUR. WYLBUR is an interactive terminal I \? n system used for text editing and remote job entry. Information regarding 1,\ WYLi3UR can be obtained from the Washington State University Computer o Service Center's software manual IIUsing WYLBUR". ! I (\ ,i] " . Before beginning the di"scussion of how oto use the prison population c o l forecast model, two points need to be reviewed~, Flr~Ct, it is important" ~t 1 that Part I of this document be reviewed carefully before attelTlpting to \ /. 't, /J cj 83 " . i J ~ Preceding page blank "I ~ -'C' '_._.... '- __ , ' •••.• "'•. ~ __ f ': ,ip l ".~---:;.---".-,..,....-. : 0" " I ~-.'""'''"'''. (~ " ", '\ '" / ".. / . Notice that except for subpopulation forecast file $OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPOP, ~an1pulate the computer model. This section does not pr6vide a detailed each new data input in the Exhibit 2:2 generates a unique output f6~ the review regarding the actual internal logic of the programs and data fHes subpopulation, files. However, if a new input wer'e used for WYL.OF.PRI. deflnJtions~ Rather it focuses on the methods of running and altering the EXISTPOP, the: subpopulation forecnst file for $OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPO~ should be changed tIP $OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPOPl. In this case the subP(Pulation (node 1. forecast file~ for $OPPFM.Y1986.BO~RD and $OPPFM.Y1986oCOURT WQuld advance \\ 'he second point pertains to the expansion of the file structure that is one. That is, they wot.{ld bec;:ome $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD and nec,essary for the 'generat.ion of new and alternative prison popul.ation $OPPFM.Y1986.COURT. However the subpopulat"lon f orecast file. for NEWADMIT forecast. Exhibit 2:1, whichisan expanded version of Exhibit 2 .in ;P·art ,-{$OPPFM.Y1986. NEWAOM/T -- would return to its original form because ~~1, shows that the minimum changes necessary in the fi Ie structure. As th.!s l $"~FM.Y1986 •. BASEPOP1 would not impact the program NEWAOM/T. exhibit shows, aH that is necessary is the establishment of additiona·1 .,,~~ .. ' " .~ ~ . ~orkspace for the data lnput fileS and the subpopulation f.orecast files. 1 Tiler rema Inder of th i s part of the document descr i bes the methods tha t I :~,o~~~ be fol!lowed for generating new or alternative prison population uP9 li I Notice that some of the added' fiLe space in Exhibit 2:1 is labeled lI ate I fqreco'!t-= I n cases where i nterna I program changes are necessary the appro lt while the other islabled Hworkspace • This differentiation is important priate I ines in the program are identified and the required program chang'~s 1 ; I because jt stresses the extent to which the data s.ets cpn be manipulated. , I ~oted. I n a 11 ;xamp I es the app ropr i ate method for mak ing changes in riatZi ~~ ) q"hose data sets wh i ch have add it i ona I space 1abe 1 ed "workspace!! are qu Ue ",I " I!'.put fj les 9-":e explain.ed. Then~theapproprlat,~ JCt;-(job cOiitfoilanguage) =::-:c--:;-:--__:'· _.=,. ...:.~-:o:-;;-::--;..~ changes are noted. And then the proper sequence for, running the jobs and easily manipulated, ,and arf;f thefnosteffictent"formakln,ghypottJetical i inputs. On the"other hand, the data sets wh1~h have their additlonal sp~ce 'obtaining output are described. labeled lIup date"are. less efficiently used as hypothetica~ input. I Meaningful ch.;lnges in these data input, fi les ~re lar.gely d~pendenton I (,Six forecast alternatives are described • Remem 'b er, however, it is not external data sources which ,are periodical1y U2dated.,Mowever, it .is necessary to run each a 1 ternat ive separately." I nformat i on presented in possible to mC3nipulate the "update" files hypothetically'S that .is it is these examples is sufficient to al10w the analyst to run multiple changes i \ I. ern o d' . I I possi b I e to use test data that is not spec i fica i I Y related to any ext\ 8] urlng ~ sIng e run. The key to running multiple inputs is to carefully it' pata sources. follow the sequence of inputs and 0ytputs shown on Exhibit 2:1. Failure to proper I y sequence the runs produces erron.eous resul ts. j A1 though these add it i ona) workspaces qre the mi n imum needed to perform .an ., updated or alternative forecast, Exhibit 2:2 shows how C3 system of extended :\.- I" The six forecast alternatives include. ¥.Iork files could prove beneficial. The illustrative plan portrayed in Exhibit 2:2 is a situation where one additional set of conviction rates, (1) Changing JOI percentages one of judici.al .decsions to imprison percentages, and one additionajHset (2) Changing Convic~ion Rates length of stay curves, and a mixed .test involving a]ter~d JOI percentage~ (3) Changing Length of Stay Patterns and conviction rlltes. .Alternatives 1 through 3 show the fi Ie sequence (4) Changing the Existing Prison Population needed to generate gn alternative forecast when making one inputJ.) fiJe (5) Changing the State PopUlation' change at a time. Alternative 4 shows the fi 1e sequence needed for making (6) Changing the Age Groupings two or more Input changes atone time.' 85 \ . (:) , 84 ({ ._-----_.. . • y ... EXHIBIT 2:1 The File S1;.ru.cture For the Prison Population Forec;:lst Computer ModeJ 1 1 ' ( < $USER.Y1986.LUCKY I WYL.OF .PR I • DATA ( DOCH I sf) WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(RELEASES) , T_ <, UPDATE. UPDATE WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(HISTPOP) -;:.c--:--, .. UPDATE (,. <.~ I WYL.OF .PRJ .DATA(PFOR) <~ WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) ~ I WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(LOSPGM) - .. UPDATE ., \~YL. OF • PR I .DATA(COMM) WYL.OF.PRI.EXJSTPOP WORK SPACE 00 . < \.JYL !.PF!PR ! • SlUW I \IE f) C)) - , ' .<,.>,<"< - I I i) UPDATE WORK SPACE WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI) c' '0 (/ , ~ 1....liiJ:- W WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(BASEPOP) I WYL. OF • PR J • .L I B (NEWADt·U T) I v I • t WYL, OF .PRI • LIB (PAROLEES) I " REPORT I. - \. , .. ' , i' ., 1,1 'i $OPPFM. Y1986.~SEPOP $OPPFM •• Y1986. N.EWADMT $OPPFM~Yl9B6.BOARD $OPPFM.Y1986.COURT I c~: . .1 i WORK SPACE WORK SPACE WORK SPAC.E WORK SPACE ~\\\ .-,:,Y r ... o t t 0 .. J WYL.OF.PRJ.LtB(WRITER) <\-_ J o "REPORT 1 I; Q , .1JJ " Ii tfj 0, C? l~-':.:1 " " " J) ~ (I , /) o / . " , C,:• . " " . () \\ t:.i-' .:- __ .d.. _ •. _~,~ _ _ . __ ••.----' ...... :~ •. "'._.l__~._._~_~._~._, __ .___ ,.~ .... __ . __ ~ __ ~ • '~'-'1!. 'D.. i f Exhibit 2:2: Example for File Structure For Alternative Forecasts 6 Alter. 1 Alter. 2 Alter. 3 Alter. 4 Original Change Change Change Change and Fi le Forecast Conv. Rates JDI % (1) LOS Conviction Rates - til\ )J WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM)- COMM COMM1 COMM COMM COMM2 WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI) JDI JDI JD 11 JDI JDI2 WYL.OF.PRI.SURVIVE SURVIVE SURVIVE SURVIVE SURVIVE1 SURVIVE $OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPOP BASEPOP BASEPOP BASEPOP BASEPOP BASEPOP I";:; $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT NEWADMT NEWADMTl NEWADMT2 NEWADMT3 NEWAOMT4 $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD gi BOARD BUARD1 BOAR02 BOAR03 BOAR04 $OPPFM.Y1986.COURT COURT COURTl COURT2 COURT3 COURT4 \ ' o o i) ,,(1) \ \ , ;"1 J " I.:' () Cl o o (I 0 , o o o ; . • 0 -), 0 , . II w" (JU'6",\1."'-. , 0, , ' o ., o o () o o o " . o . . , e Q' o (] n 1\ o - •• ~_ , ____., ~:;.~-:.:.: • ..:;.,--;.';;"..:..;."'--. _~.i: ••,.._' -to,. -,~.;c' ,_.0<- -'_~. ,;;::;_ ~. ..J. _, \1 i t ( { . \ EXHIBIT 2:3 JOI INPUT DATA FILE -- WYL.OF.PRI .DATA(JDI) ~,0 ! II" CHANGING THE JDI PERCENTAGES "oc 1'';" .0001 .0001.0001.0001.0001.000' .000 II 2.•• 12 ~~~"'!3001.00()1.000tt.0001;0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.OG01.0001.0001.000t.OO01.0001.0001.0001.000 .OO()1.000t:~0001.000~ :"~'; :;'!:' 3. 21 .930. Pl) .930 • VJO .930 .930 .930 .930 .930 .930 .930 • no .930 .930 .9301 , There are two major ~teps necessary for altering the JDI percentages In the " 65 65 5 4. 65 '3 °3% , ~ ~2, ~!50"~ :30'°6 o~50~ .~;06 o!5()06 .63~~ ·36~~ f6 5()06 "3 0°6 .6305~ 0()6 ° "e ?' .!50~ ·(,305~ I,!l o;t • \l U • ..a Q .,;IV ." • vp • liP " J • • 11. • 6 .,) \I • .;) O. 11 . prison popGlation forecast model. The first step is to determine what 5. o 6. 32 .174 .174 .174 .174 .174 .174 .17-4.174 .174.174 .174.174.17".17" .t7" I changes are desired in the' JOI inp!.It data file -- WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI). 7. .299 .298 .298 .293 .298 .298 .298 .290 .,298 .298 .298 .298 ;293-.290 .298 r! ,,1 The second step is to make the necessary changes in JCL in the affected 6. .300 ,.JOO .300 .300 .JOO .300 .300 .300 .300 .30.Q .300 .JOO .300 .3()O.-.300 ' \\ ~.:::. 9. 51 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 .632 o6~2 .o3~ .632 .6J~).632 .632 .632 .'32 .632 . I) pFograms to run a new forecast. 10. 51 .,556 .556 .556 .556 .556 ~556 .5\16 .55~ .556 .556 .556 .556 .556 .556 .556- HY~->- 1t • 51 .584 .584 .594 .584 .584 .584 .584 .584 .SS4 .584 .504 .584 .594 uS84 .584 , 12. 51 .583 6583 .583 .593 .583 0583 .583 .593 .583 .583 .S83 .503 .583 .533 .5S·~ Step 1 13. 51 .620 ,620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620 .620".620 .620 .620 .620 , 14. 51 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626 .626".~2' .~2~ .626 ,I 15. 52 .478 .478 .478 ~478 ,478 .478 .478 .478 .478 .478 .478 .47B .4]8 .478 .478 I E>$hibit 2:3 !?hows the JOI inpV,t data file - WVL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI). It is a 16. 6' !jttJ .713 .713 .7t3 .713 .. 113 .713 .713 .7tJ .1'13 .7t3 .713 .713 ~713 .713 32 line file with each line ;eferring to a specific crime, sex, and age 17. 61 :356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 .356 " 1130 6t .a:·IH .341 .341 .341 .341 .341 .341 .341 .34t .341 .341 .341 .341 .Ht .341 l! category. The first two co 1umns of each Ii ne refer to one of the nine 19. 61 .245 0245 .245 .245 .245 .245 .245.245 .245 .245 .. 245 .245 i,245 .245 .245 ~J~c,=~-.c, \ crime types. Be careful when reading the first two columns because the 20. 62 .255 .255 .t?~~)!.2S_5.255 .255-,,255 ~.255-.25511'25~=.255"~255 .255 .255 ~25S 2i. 71 .396 .396 .396 .396 .396 .396 .396 .396 .396 .J96 .396 .396 .396 .396 .394 initial 0 is not printed. For ins~anc~ in line one, the initial 1 should 2~. ;171 .193 .193 .193 .193 .193 .193 .193 .. 193 .193 .19~ .193 .193 .193 .193 .1~J agtually be re'ad as 01. Col'~mn three refers to the type of sex. The 23. 71 .2,38 .238 .238 .23)) .238 .238 .238 .238 .23B .238 .238 .238 .238 .238 .23B 24. 71 .2:21 0221 .221 .221 .221 .221 ~221 .221 .221 .221 .221 .221 .221 .221 .221 remainder of each line is a sequential list for forecasted fiscaJ years of 25. 71 .205 .205 .205 .205 .205 .205 .205 .205 .20~ .205 .205~205 .205 .205 .205 t~e percentage of persons within each of the subcategories sent to prison 2iS. 71 .214 .214 .21~ .214 .214 .214 .214 .214 .214 .214 .214 .21~ .214 .2t~.214 27. 71 .2Q4 .204 .204 ~204 .204 .204 .204 .204 ~204 .20\ .204 .204 .20~ .204 .204 once convi~ted. In this casi 1.000 equals 100 percent. It is important to 29. 72 .096 .09' .096 .096 .096 .096 .096 .096.096 .096 .096 .096 .096 .096 .096 notice that In some cases the initial t~llnumbers on a line pre repeated in 29. 81 .0'4 .099 .tt2 .120 ~120 .120 .120 .120 .t20 .t20 .120 .120 .120 .120 .120 30. 82 :Q57 .063 .071 .077 .083 .083 .083 .083 .083 .083 .083 .083 .Oa3 .083 .083 the following lines. For inst,ance in 1i~es 9 through 14 a 51 is recorded. It. 91 .0.' .090 .099 .107 .116 .125 0134 ~f34 .134 .134 ~t34 .134 .134 .134 .134 The 5 refers to the cr ime of robbery and the 1 refers to ma I es. ECiCh 32. 92 c044 .044 .044 .044 .04~ .t44 .044 .044 .044 .944 .044 .04 •• 0.4 .04 •• 044 slJc'cessive line '~eginning with 51 refers to a different age subgrollP· The e)Jact age subgroups represented in the JOI data fi le can be reviewed by n~adi ng the discuss i on o~the JO I data f i 1 e in Pqrt I of th i s document. , ~/ (I Once the J'DI data input file structure is understood, it is possible to EXHIBIT 2:4 CHANGED JDt VALUES FOR PROPERTY OFFENDERS proceed with altering the JDI input~ The development of the original JDt .. 20. 62 input was aided by the review of the output from the program WYLOF.PRI. .235 .255 ~255 ?2S~ .255 .255 .255 .2~5 ~255 .255 .255 .255 .255 .25~ ,255 21. 71 .000 .000 .OOQ~.OOO .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 LlB(HISTREPT}. Once the alter~ative JOI values are selected the changes 22. 71 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 ~ooo ~OOO .000 .000 0000 .000 23.' that are to be made in the JOI input file a,re,straightforwqrd. For 71 .000 .~OO .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0000 ~OOO 0000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 , r. 24. 71 .000 .000 .000 .000 .• 000 .000 .000 .000 .OOQ .000 .000 .OOt 0000 .000 .000 example, if it is believed that property offenders will no longer be sent 25~ 71 .000 ~ooo .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .006 ,000 .000 .ood .000 .000 .000 26. .,,7t to prison, all the user has to do is chang.e the JOI values for the 1 ines in .• 001) .000 .. 000 .000 0000 .000 .MO .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 27. 71 .. 0(1) .000 .000 .000 .Q,OO .000 .0Gf) .000 .000 0000 .. 000 .000 .000 .000 ~OOO WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI) pertaining to prope'rty offenders. For this example 28. 72 '",OOj) .000 .000 .000 .0'00 .000 .. 000 .000 .000 .. 000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 29. 91 ,~~!4 .099 .t12 .120 .120 .120 .120 .120 .120 .120 .t20 0120 .120 .120 .120 i 1,\ . , 89,0,1 I ~ 1 I, 88 \ .... <::0 .'" 1 0' f) I i ! /,J ! ;.i .. d" the 1 i nes beg i nn iog ~II'th the numbers 71 and ~1 , Once the new input fiJe JOl1 and output file $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMITl i e~anges only need to be mae In . th~new " { ~~ 7~. Exhib,,{~~ 2:4 shows the~e v~lues changed to .noo. a~e establl~hed, i~'may be desi~ble to make minor changes or corrections It! ? -In JD 11 without ~~tab Ii sh I n9 a new JD If" e. To avoid creat I ng th is 1 J ,i .~ step .2 uhwanted output file use the a I tered JCL shown below. Noti.~~ that the i lines 238.1 and 23B.2have been deleted and that \'.".1 '/ '. has been ch~nged to (OLD,KEEP,DELETE). the DISP statement in 238 { Once the thanges are ma de in the JDI data input file the next step is to run ! o 1 a new foreca'. st. Thi-'" requires a number of program alterations,, In til is I t j eRample no alterations are requIred In the Fortran programs. All ch~nges 234. :::-.' ( 235. / /GO. FTtl FOOt DD D'SN=/JYL. OF .PRI .DAT1HB[)HH)o' DISP=SHR I are,'. limited to job'control1anguage (JCL). The following is theseq.uenee 236. IIGO.FTI2FOOt DD DSN=UYl.OF.PRI.DATAfPFOR),DISP=SHR I 237. IIGO.FT13FOOI DD DSN=UYL.OF.PRloDATA(JDIfJ,DISP=SHR. o~ the necessary alterations. IIOO.FT14FOOf DD DSN=UYL.OF.PRI.SURVIVE,DISP=SHR ~ ~ f 238. I 239. //GO.FTf5FOOt DD DSH=OPPFH.Y1986.HEUADHT1,DISP=(OLD,KEEP,D£lETE)" IIG,O.SYSIN DD * " 0 I? 1 d 'the JDI input data fi Ie make sure the -I After " the changes are ma e In '. to do thi sw ill cause the new ,(",.,' i file is saved under a new name. Foailure \, the fil-e :it .i'5 Once the proper JCL is selected for the program LIB(NEWADMI1'),fi" it must be 1 . "'te the or ;g' ina! fi Ie. In renaming . 1 (,saved to retain the proper JCL. The conmand used herei s: SAVE #NEWADM I T ! f; Ie tooverwr I d k eplng 'such as ! h 'eh enhances good reeor . e .', . ' I i mportaht to use a method WI, '(. See Exh; bi t2:2) • The 'R~P · Then it I s nee e ss ar y to run II B(NEWADM IT) t'1 genera te the new ou ~p~ d ' the ear 1 i er sect Ion c, n file $OPPFM.V1986.NEWADMTl. The conmand to run the program is: RUN UNN the 'one suggeste In new JD.I fileLs: SAVE DArA(JDll) WYLBUR 'conmand use'q for saving the TER STD. TI';:e output from this wiH generate a new disc file. This file can /,1 be examined by using the command: USE $OPPFM,. Y1 986.NEWADMTl. It is not .' ,IB(NEWADMIT) reads the. correct. 'utandInp , generate's Insure that the L . 'h below for pr I nt en tire f I tis over 3,400 II nes _,=:1U'l,;l~'~~0 t~e ire b.:.cau,s~ lo~g. II ·t·he 'cor'rect output HIes. TheJCLshould appear as sown1 ' 2:26.' that. '.' ! . i h " JD'ldata. Nt'·0 Ice thati n . 'I ne ) . . t the in itia1run for t e ·new '. .' .:10'1 file. 0 , It is Possibleo to obtain a report from the run of LIB(NEWADMIT). To obtain" o. ~ ;:t \\, ~name -"'.\ ' ; .... ds with the of the new '\ f JOIl 1'5 read wh'l ch correspon . ..., . das the output fI'l e. '\ thi.s report make sure that the Fortran SWitches on' ines 26 and 27' of ! l . 1 i ne 238 that NEVlAOMT1 I suse , A so 'not ice that In output f n ewin cause the II B(N-EWADM IT). re set to 1. Th I s report comes d I rec t IY to" the use r S)"1'3 .' tl 'F. a 'I"I . U re to. a' d'vance the. numbering 9f:/ .....\ J:.t~h~e~~~~~.!::....:~~~:.:::.::.~""-- interactIve terminal and shows the number of new admissions to the prisons ,. ''\1rlg. ina1 " output f'I1e to be overwri t,t-oen. ' from the courts. IJ -'\ \~ I \~ I ;'.. i :,) , " \ IIt-"I I) \ \ PRI DATA(COMMi,'rtISP:::SHR '\ "34.5 \ /IGO •. FT11F00100 1 DD ~:~~~~t:,g~:PRI:DATA(-P'Foin,'DI5P:::SH~ I I ~J • II GOoF 112 F :~ DSN~W flo OF. PR I • Dft rAJ JD11l",Jl1 sy ~SHR_ " _ _. _ \ 236.. ~ 1(60. FT 1~~ 001 - ~ - -. _' '( 'Of-p-iH -SURVI VE, D1 SP=SI1R . \':0: - \iIGO.FT14F001 DD DSN:lJ :'M NEWAOMTt ,1 ISP:::,(NEtJ,-CATLG,D£U TE), '~ '/160 FT15FOOl DD DSN-OPFF .,7~1986 • I Iil :Ne. "CDISU SPACE-(400 (100,IOO),RLSE).~ 01 "3'\~.'1 / I UNIT::: r\, - , ZE 41\0'1 1\ ;~~\2 1/ DCB:::(RECFM=FB,LRECL=BO,BLKSI ~ v " () ..o 23'9 ~ /160. SYSIN [III :;: 1"1, " "" , 91 ., 90 I , 'J-' i tp '; '",," ~_Ad----~~O~·-.~e~~~~--:• '0 .f) • , "--""~fI f \: () ,', N~xt? insure that the proper JCL ls u,sed II, LIB(PAROLEES). Fai1un~, to use Finally to produce a fore~ast t"h~~,,~~epr,esents the changes in the new JDI t~e proper JCL in this program will cause tbe forecast model to produce , . data input file in.s, ur:e that the prqper JCL , ern>l1eous results, Incorrect JCL will cause LIB(PARQLEES)" to receive . is use,d in LJB{WR~TER). Failure to use the proper cJCL' in th'ls I ' ..' program WI cause the forecast mode I to ipCQrrect new admlssiofl$ to prison data. In this,example the correct JCL " I.' - J I > produce erroneous,results.~he JCL that is as follows: I should be used to generate the ~ correct forecast ;'5\~S follows; I r:"" . __ '---, ,) - ~".~- .... ~~... - "'" ~~" - i '-' ~ -. _.""- }.. 194. , I(QO .r-'T12F001, DD DSN=OPPFM. Y1986.BASEP'OP DISP=SHR ItIlO.FT16FOOl DD DSN;:!)PPFH. Y19,1!6. BOARD1 ,DISI:O= (NEW ,CATLG "DELETE) , Go ~ u 195. ~/ 334. /IGO.FT13FOOI DD DSN=OPPFM.Y1986 NE~ADHTi DISP-S '-:.:.-..... -.. 196. . 334.1 II UNIT=CDlSK,DCB=(RECFtf=FB~LRECL=80,BLKSIZE=490); 197. IIGO.FT14F001 DD DSN=OPPFH.Y'I986.COURT1,DlSP=SHR- HR 1IGO).FT15ROOl D.DDSN~OP?FH.Y19a6.BOAR[ll DISP=SH~ 334.2 1/ SPACE=(4~O~(1~O,tOO),RLSE) 1 j 19B. j IIGO.SYSIN DR * ' , 1'( 335. I /GO. FT17FOO1. DD DSH=O~PFt1. Y198'6..COIJRT1 ,DlSP= Notice in the JeL abov,e forpB(PAROLEES) that new files are created" for , I \ '[ t~e sugpopulation output' f,iles $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD AND $OPPFH.'(1986.COURT. , '-.1 T~e new ou1put f i 1es can' be recogn i zed as BOARD 1 and COURTl.' I n the s i tuat ion where changes Q,i" correct Ions are made to the input data fIle JD 11 b~t the subpopu lation out"ut fiJ e $OPPFM. Y1986 .NEWADMTl i.s used it would \) b~ preferable tp.· use the JCL shown bel'ow for LlB(PAROLEES). 33~. /IGIUI~FT16F'OOt DD DSN=OPPFM~·,(l9.86.BOARDl ,DISP=(OLD, KEEP ,DELETE) 33.5. 1l!10~FH7F~OlDl), DSN=OPPFM. Yl.. 986 .COURT1 , DI SP= (OLD, KEEP; DELETE) 336. IIGO. F't: 11 FotH DD DSH=·OPPFM. Y1986. BASEPOP, DISP=SHR () 337. /160. FT12FQ.O;l; D.D DSN~OPPFtI,. Y1986. NEUAD~H 1 ,DISP=SHR 3.3.8.• IIGO .• FT 1.0FOO.1 DD DSN.=~.YL .OF .PRI.SURV·IVE,'DISP=SHR u 339. .../ laO:.~!SI~~ Dip, * .__ ' "," 0lilce the proper JCL Is selected for the progam UB(PAROLEES,), it must be , I saved to reta I n that JCL. Use the command: SAVE#PAROI:..EES REP. To generate t;he subpopuli;ition .output files· for $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARDl and $OP.PFM;.y.1~9a6.CQUR1'1., lI:B{PAROLEES~l must be run. Use the, command~, RUN· UNN, ,C T~R S.T.D. Theou,tput from this., p179gram. wHl gen.era.te two new, d~i'sk fi'les. No output is. sent d.i rec~ly' to the. user's, terminal. I.f the user desi res to View the output the cOll1l1and, to 'use is: USE $OPPFM'.Y1986.BOARD1' (oro o " ) ceURTl)' ~ Jt is not aclv isab 1e to pr I,nt the ent i re files· because they are very" lc;lrge. " (J 93 , I:; ~) - ,~., ... l , -~--~------~--- -•...... ~ ~-.,.Ijj..~" EXHIB,IT 2:5 CONVICTION RATE INPUT DATA FILE WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM) CHANG HlG THE CONV I CT I ON RAtES "1'(;" (( 1. 11 112 .021.029 .021.027 .026.021 .024 .023 .022 .021 .02 1 .021 .021 .021 .021 1'he~_e are two niajbr st~ps necessary for aitering the conviction rate's in 2. -- - "' ., thE! prlsdn 'populatjon forecasLmodel. The fi'rst step is to de.~er'mine what 3. 12 112 .002 .002 .b02,002 .002 .002 • OO?•• 002 .002 .002 .002 .002 .002 4. chahg'~s ar,a deslr~d in th~~Ohviction tate ihp~t data fi le -- WVL.OF .PRJ .. 5. 21 112 •.033 040 .039.033 .033'.03B 036 ,..035 0 34 .033 .033 .033 .033 .033 .033 (I D~rA( Co~tn. rhesecond step is to make the necessary changes 111 the JCL in 6. 7. 22 112 .003 .003 .003.OOl '.003 • 00 3 .003 .003 .003 .003 .003 .003 .003 the' affected prCigrfims, to run a neW forecast. 8 •. 9. 31112 '~1'2080• .112.120.120 .116 .120 .120 .120 .120 .120 ...... 120 1?0 120.120 10. 11 • 32 112 ·.013 on .013 .013.013' 013 • 013 • 01''3 •. 0 H .013 .013 .013 .013 .013 step 1 12. 13. 41 112 •.4~0 580 .480.580 .580.500 ••••520 540 560 59 0 .5BO· .580 .580 .580 .580 Exhibit 2:5 shows the cOrlvictiQn' rate input data file -~ WYL.OF.PRI. 14. DATA(COMM). it is a 64 lirie file with each two lines sequentially 15. 42 112 .01q\.010,~~~10 .O}O .010 '.010 .010 .010 .010 .010 .010 .010 .010 .010 16. tE!ferrihQ to specific crime, "sex, .....",~" .".~""t ~ .--,------.-._._._--_. -----,._----- f I , " o _ .• .....:.:::::::.:::--;::.:::.::::;,;:::.:::::_.:-.:;:;:~: ... _..r-"-'--_~"''"''-'«-~,~ .....~.,._. __"'-_ ...... , __ •. Step 2 EXHlalT 2~5 tONT1NUED ~ Once the change~ are ~ma~te_ i,n the con V i ct i on rate data input f i 1e the next step is to run a new forecast. Th"is requires a number of program altera L.375 t ions. In th i s examp I e no a I terat ions are requ ired in the Fortran 50. 1.375 1.375 1.003 1.()03 1.003 1.003 1.()03 1.003 1 •.~()3 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 program~., All changes are c l imited to job control language, (JCL). The' 51. 711111 ;,' 1.003 1.003 52. 1.003 .560 .560 .560 • 560 .560 .560 ," followin,g is thesequenceOof the necessary alterations • .560 .560 .560 .560 .560 .560 53. 711212 0 .560 54.' " ,560 .560 .481 .491 .48'1 • 481 .491 .481 .4Bl .481 .481 .481 • 4131 55. 72 112 .481 After t!;le changes are"made i~ the conviction rate input data file make sure .4111 .481 .4B1 .BOO .800 .800 56. .700 .740 .780 .BOO .BOO .800 57. 81 112 .580 .620 .660 thefi Ie is saved unqer a new name. Fa i 1ure to do th i s wi 11 cause the new .SOO .800 .aoo .180 .180 .180 ~S 5B~ .lS0 .180 .180 • 'I 80 .180 .1 eo file to overwrite the original fYle. In renaming the file it is important 59. B2 112 .150 .100 .170 .1 BO 60. .180 .180 .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 to;'cUse a method which enhances good record keeping, such as the one .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 ~, 61 • 91 112 .562 suggested in the earJ'ier section (see Exhibit 2:2). The WYLBUR conmand .562 .562 .5b2 .080 .0130 ,,080 62. " .OBO .OBO .080 .080 .08'() .080 63. 92 112 .080 .oao .080 " used for saving the new conviction rate fi1e I\s: ,SAVE DATA(COMM1). d 64. .080 .080 .080 '~--=' ~ Insure that LIB(NEWADMIT) reads the correct input and generates the correct output files. The JCL should appear as shown below for the initial ! run of the new conviction n)te,,~data. Notice tlfat in Line 234 that COMMl is ; '~ read which corresponds with the name of the new conviction rate file. Also notice .that in line 238 that NEWADMT2 is used as,the output file. Failure EXHIBIT 2!6 CHANGED CONVICTION~ATES FOR DRUG OFFENDERS to advance the numbering of the output file will cause the original output file to be overwritten. D \ J ,i ~ .481 co .. .481 .481 .481 .481 .481 .481 .481 .481 55. 72 112 .481 .481 .481 234~ //GO.FT11F001 DD DSN=UVl.OF.PRI.DATA{COMH1),DISP=SHR .481 .481 • 481 .400 .400 235 • 56. " .350 .370 .390 .400 .400 .400 .400 IIGO~FT12F001 DD DSN=YYl.OF.PRI.DATA(PFOR),DISP=SHR 57. '81 112 .290 .310 • 330 236 • IIGO.FT13FOOt DD DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI),DISP=SHR .400 .400 .400 .090 .090 " 237. IIGO.FT14F001 DD DSN=UYl.OF.PRI.SURVIVE,DISP~SHR 58." .090 '.090 .090 .090 .090 ~O90 .090 238. 59. B2 112 .075 .080 .oa5 1100 • FT15F001 DD DSN=OPPFH. Y1986. NEWADMT2, DISP::; (). , o 96 97 J o ...- = ,/ .. f I {) ;;, ...../ . . " Notice in the JCl above for lIB(PAROLEES) that new files are created for ~~: :UbPoPulation"output files $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD AND $OPPFM.Y1986.COURT. Qpce the new input file COMMl and the new outPllt file $OPPFM.Y1986.:-JEWADMT2 " e~ olltput fIles can be recognized as BOARD2 and COURT2i in the are est~~lished, it may be desirable to m~ke minor changes or corrections ~~; s, tuat Ion where changes or correct ions are made to the input data f i Ie r -". ip th.e: COMMl file without establis!'ting a new COMM file. To qvoid creating COM~~ .but the subpopulation PU1;put fne.$OPPFt·1.Yi986~NEWADMT2 is used it /1 thi~ unW~l1teq output file use the altered JeL sho\ It i~ po.5sible. to oP,tain a report from the run of LIB (NEWADMIT) • To. 9b~~in F!;nally to produce a forec;ast that represents the changes in the I • . new t~is report m~.l<.e s,u,re that the Fortran SWitches ()n lines 26 qnc( 27 pf convlc~lon rate input data file in'sure that the proper JCL is used in LlBfNEWA.PMIT) ~re S.et to. 1. This report comes directlY.to the USers L1B(WRI!ER). Failur~(lto use the proper JCL in this program wiJ'l,/'cause the intereJ,ctive termInal. ,This. report shows the number of new a.dmissions to forecast model to produce erroneous results. The JeL that be used ! Sh\~'~ld t~e pri~on.s from the courts. to generate the correct forecast is as follows: 194. //GO.FT12F001 DD DSN~OPPFM.Y1986.BASEPOP,DISP~SHR N,xt, ins~re that the proper JC~ is used In LIB(PAROLEES). Failure to use 195. IIGO.FT13F001 DD DSN=OPPFH.Y1986.NEUADHT2,DISP=SHR 196. 1160.FT14F001 DD DSN=OPPFH.Y19B6.COURT2,DISP~SHR t~e proper JCL in this pr9g~qm WlII ~quse the foreCast mo~el tQ proclu~e 197. IIGO.FT1SFOOl DD DSN=OPPFI1.Y1986.BOARD2,JlSP=SHR erroneous results. I;n,correct JeL wi 1 I cause llB(PAROL~ES) to rece;jve 19B. IIGO.SYSIN DD * LlB(WRITER) incorrect neW; admi ss.tons to p.r tso.n ciata. For th is ~~ampile the corrE~ct JCL produces a);. . , o " , C) CHANGING THE 'lENGTH OF STAYPATT'~RNS () o o There are two -major steps nec~ssary for alter i ng the 1ength of stay pattern fpr the pri~on pop~~aticn forecast model. The first step Is to ~etermine wh~t changes are desired in the' length of stay patterns data Input file WYL.OF.PRI,SURVIVE. The second step Is to make the necessary changes in t~e JCI" in the affected program's to run a new forecast. stee 1 Ei e~ch sex and crime category is recorded In a block of eight lines. Each '\~Je haS a maximum of 24 fields 5 spaces wide. Each of these fie I cis rl;!presents the percentage rema i n I ng In pr i son on any given month after cohort of sex by crime prisoners enter prisons. For instance if 100 male ,. robbery"offenders entered prison during 1983, 100 percent would still be remaining In prison for eleven months. During the twelfth month 99 percent of this group would remain in prison. During the thirteenth month there would be no change, but then in the fourteenth month 98 percent' of this gtoup woulcl remain in prison. As time progresses a smaller percentage of a \ I r'~JP that entered at one time wou I d rema i n in pr i son. After the fu 11 180 ~¥n'ths Of the for~cast 1.4 percent of the group of pr i soners would st ill r~main in prison. In this data file 1.000 = 100 percent. Opce the length of stay data f11e is understood, It is possible to proceed w'th a1te!ing the length of stay input. Once the alternative length of stay pattern is selected, it is a straight forward process to make changes in Sl,JRVIVE. For instance, say that it is bel ieved th;:lt a new sentencing \ Jaw will increase the length of stay for first tini'e male rpbery offenders by about six. It isals!:> assumed that the rate of'decline for the per c;entage rema i n i ng stays sl mi1 ar to the or i gina 1 dec 11 ne pattern. All the 1 user has to do in this case is enter the new values in place of the old va 1ues~ For th Is examp 1e changes only need to be made in 1 i nes 73 and 74. Exhibit 2:8 shows, these changed values. Q o \ , ,- 100 .. \\ " Q ',~, f I . ,. . " , c a o J) , 9 __, _",,,-,,, ,,:,,--.:: "'~,_."" ",_."", __ ,::::::::~'::::~,::::::::,~,\\':::.:~:':::::::::~::::::::':::;=,;::;:=:::;c::'"":':~,;,:.c"",-::.=,;,=::.::,;::::.c.C:.;=.-::::;:;".:. __,,,,,:,,,::,~:,,-,_,,:~::,:::::,, .":__ ,,,,,1'\.,,_, ,,'-,,- ."_.,,, " I, , 7 10 1.0001.0001.000t .OG01.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t .0001.000t .0001.0001.0'001 .0001 .ooot .0001.0001.0001 .000 2. 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001~0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001~0001.0001.000 ~ I 3. 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 4. ~ 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0061.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001~0001.0001.0001.0001.000 5. ~ t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.00~.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 6. 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0091.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 .I 7. ,... \ 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 B. ~ 1.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.{l001.0000.0 0.0 o " 9. ~ I no. ~ 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.00~'.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 11. 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 12. v 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001~p001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001;~OOI.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 13. ro t.0001.0001.~'ijij}~0001.0001.0001.0001.0?OG0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 14. ~ 1.0001.0~~j10001.000t.OOOt.OO~1.00~1.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.00 01.0001.000 t 5. 1 • OO~~v"'f • 0001 .0001 .0001 .• 090.hMOl .0001.000 t.• 0001 .000.1 .0001.0001.00.01. O. 001 .0001 .0001.0001 .0001.0001 .0001 .0001.0001.000 , ' '. 16. 1.001!.0001.0001.0001.0001!0001:0~01.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.000t.ooo 17. I • OO~,I. 000 1.0001 • OOOI.OOOI~ OOO'nOO 1.0001.0001 .0001 .0001.0000.0 0.0 ~:: '.0CJ1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0~:~~~OI.0001.00~1.000t.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.00 01.0001.000 20. 1.r~01.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.~~OJ.0001.0000.9570.9570.9570.9570.9280.9130.8990.8990.8840.8840.8840.8840.8840.8840.884 21. 0 ./~840. 8840.8840 .S700. 8700. 8700. 870\}. 8550.84 to. 8120.7830.7540.7390.7390.7390.7250.7100.6520.6390 .6390 .6230. 6230 .6()90.609 .-1 22. ~ 0f6090.6090.S940.5800.5650.S6S0.5;)'0. 5510.5360.5070.5070.4930.4930.4780.4640.4640 .4640.4640 .4640.4640.4490.4350. 4350.406 ~ 23. ~ OZ4060.4060.4060.4060.4060.39iO.3'10.3330.3190.3190.3190.3190.3040.3040.3040.2900.2750.2750.2750.2750.2610.2460.2320.217 24. )0.2170.2170.2170.2170.2030.1880.1880.1740.1740.1740.1740.1740.t740.1740.t740.1740.1740.1740.1590.1450.1300. 1160.1160.116 25. 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(}' 0.• 0 0.0 0 •. 0, 0.• 0: 0,.0 0'.0.: .•.. ()·.O. 0.0, 0.0; 0,,.0: H'I. ll.. 0. .. 0· 0,.,0; (t'.0 0: •. 0 G·.o., 0,. o.~ 11'.0, (f. 0 01 .. 0, 0 ... 0 ~.o.. 0.• 0'· 0;.0: 0, .. 0: (1-'.0 0,,0 0.• 0, O~.O 0.0; 0.0' Ol •. O, 0.0. 0.0, 0.• 0 142. 0.. ,0:, 0,:.,0.. 0.,0 01,,-00..0 0.• 0; 0' •. 0: o. .. ()' 0'.0: 0.,,0' 0; •. 0.: 0:.0.: Oi.,(J; 0;.0 0 .. 0 0.0. 0.0 0.. 0 0.0; 0.• ·0. O! •.(). O.• IJ 0.0' 0.0 14'.3'., O:.,Oi O;·.,Q,; 0).0: o.'.ffi Q· .. Oi 0\·01 Oi.,()",- 0:.0' Q.,(), O.~ 0; ..,0: 0,.0 0.0 0: .•. 0., n 14..... :;-": -"0 .'.' • i r \ f , ' I .ff D I ~== (I' (0 ,5 .: ,. I" " o .o . , .-...... Q , .iI " r . ., ~~o f / • 'I .. ~, .- - " /- 145. 1.0001 .OOOt.0001 .0001 .0001.0001.0000.8240.B240.7650.7650.4710.4710.4710.4710.4120.4120.4120.4120.3530a3530. 35J:.cq.3530.059 146. 0.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 147. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.00OO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO~OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.O000.0000.000 14B. ~ 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 149. ~ 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 150. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 151. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 152. I... 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0 0.0 153. ~ 154. ~ 1.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0000.9800.9600.9000.8600.7600.6800.6000.4BOO.4200.3400.2800.2800.2400.2000.1400.1200.1200.100 155. 0.0600.0600.0400.0400.0400.0400.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O~O 156. ~ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ,0.• 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 157. ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 158. ID 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 p.O 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 159. "'tL. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 160. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ,0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 161 • 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 to o 162. r-t 163. 1.0001.0001.0000.9970.9970.9550.9550.9030.B970.B420.8320.7060.6810.6520.'290.5900.S770.5390.5160.4S80.4~20.4 230.4060.319 ! "I 164. 0.3060.2810.2680.2520.2390.2160.2060.174'O.I.6BO. 1610. 1580.1450.1390.1350.1350. 1000.1000.0870.0870.0810.0680.0S80.0580.055 165. 0.0520.0450.0450.0420.0420.0420.0420.0390.0390.0350.0350.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0230.0230.0230.0230.023 166. ~ 0.0190.0160.0130.0130.0130.0130.0130.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.010 , , 167. ~ 0.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.003 168. ~ 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 (; r} 169. ~ 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.003 170. ~ 0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0 0.0 171. '0 172.; 1.0001.0001.0001.000t.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0000~3330.3330.3330.3330.3330.3330.3330.3330.3330.3330.000L ' 173. ~ 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 ~. 174.~1- ...... • O.OOOO.OOOO.OOOOLaOOO.OoOO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.OOOO.~OOO.OO00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000.<- 175. m m 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 176. a..'l 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0600.0000.0000.0000.0000.00OO.OOOO.~OO 177. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 178. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 179. 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0 0.0 -- '=,.~; .. 180. \ II II C '.;-: if .~---....,.-."...--...,...... -.t;:;;'=c-=":::::===~===_=~~..-,,~~-~~4, ~,,,~::rz;;-~.~;_~:.e''''''~1;N"",,~,~,,.,..j~.~_r~~: ___ ~'';2~'''~~'~~·~:S--~ ",~.:....-~--~~-::..-.:::;::::;:::;:;-~~:,.,; ---~~.~...... ~~.::...''""'---:~ ...... - ,,>.-,., ...... ..... - ~-':- -- ._'-;.::. :~ '-~ , , ~ . . , ,.::; . o ", " , .. ." . . . I ;; I , ,p)1 \, \ . EXHIBIT 2:8~CHANGE.D LE'NGTH ·.OF STAY VALUES 1 73. 1. .0.0.0'1 • .cOOci • .00.0'1...0.001 • .0.0.0'1 • .0.0.0 1 .• .0.0.0 1 .• .0.0.01 ~ .0.0.0 1 • .0.0(;11 .'.0.0.0 1 • .0'.0 ..0 L .0.0'01 • .0.0.0 1 • .0.0.01...0 ..0.01 .• 0.0.0.0 .• :99.0.0.98.0.0.970.0:96.0.0 /95.0.0 .. 92.0.0 ,'),.00 74. .0.89.0.0 .'88.00.860.0 .83.0.0 .81.0.0.78.0.0.75.0.0.730.0 .• 7.0.0.0 .•. 67.0.0. 6J.o.o .5"8.0.0.520.0 .5.00.0. 47.o·.o.~4.o0. 414.0 .409.0.395.0.378.0 .• '376.0 •.366.0 .:359.0. '345 75. .0.338.0.326 ..0.322.0.3.07.0 .29.6.0.272.0 .258Q.24i1.o. 246.0. 229.0.222.0 .21.0.0 .196.0 .189.0 .177.0.163.0 .• 158.0. f54.o .147.0.144.0.144.0.1 ~5Q .132.0.125 76. .0.123.0.11.3.0 .113.0.1.04.0 • .099.0 .097.0 • .092.0 .• .087.0 • .0.87.0 • .087.0 • .085.0 • .083.0 • .08.0.0 •..076.0 • .076.0 .• '07,6.0 • .076.0 • .076.0 • .076.0 • .076.0 • .076.0.0760 • .016.0 • .071 77 .• .0 • .071.0 • .069.0. %9 ..0 • .069.0 • .069.0 • .06.6.0 • .061.0 .• .0.57.0 • .057.0 • .057.0 •..052.0 • .052.0 .• .0.52.0 ...052.0 • .05'0.0.0'5.0.0.,0'5.0.0. QSQ.o. 05.00 • .05.0 ..0 • .0'50'.0 • .05.0.0 • .05.0.0 • .o4~ 78. .0 • .045.0 • .045.0 • .045.0 • .045.0 • .043.0 • .043.0 • .043.0. '04.0.0 • .04.0.0 • .04.0.0 • .035.0 •..0:33.0. '.033.0 • .033:.0. 033.0 • .031.0 .• 031.0 • .031 Q. lJ310 • .031.0 • .0.31 .o ... O~l·.o • .0:31.0 • .028 79~ .0 • .028.0 • .0280 • .028.0 • .028.0 .• .024.0 • .024.0 • .021.0 • .021 Q• .021.0 .,.021'.0 • .021.0 • .021.0 • .021.0 • .021.0 • .0'21 :()· •. QHO • .019.0 • .019.0 • .019.0. 'Ol!JQ • .019.0.019.0 .·.019.0 • .019 8.0. O.019Q • .o17~.b17.o.:()1~O~0170.017.o.0170 • .o14Q.OI4D.014.o • .o14.0 • .014.0 • .0 .0 • .0 I) ~\ \ ~\ ." o \ 1\ 1J ',,-:: .\ " , ;. , i r t.) • , ., ;t I . . ~ ,J - Step 2 i \ i 1 Once the changes are made in the length of stay data file the next step is f f. I { to run a neW forecast. This requires a number of progrqm alterations. In f I this example no alterations are required in the Fortran programs. All I changes are limited to job control language (JCL). The following is the 1 sequence of the necessary alterations. f , ,f ri After the changes are made in the leng~h of stay data input file make sure that file is saved under a new name. Failure to do this will cause the new () II file to overwrite the original file. In renaming the file it is important to use a method wh i ch enhances good record keep i ng, such as the one o suggested in the earlier section (see Exhibit 2:2). The WYLBUR command _ 0 used for saving the new length of stay file is SAVE SURVIVE1. Insure that LIB(NEWADMIT) reads the correct input and generates the correct output fil~. The JCL should appear as shown below for the initial run of the new length of stay data. Notice that is line 237 that SURVIVEl is read whiCh corresponds with the name of the new· length of stay file. AIso not ice that in line 238 that NEWADNT3 is used a.s the output f i Ie. Failure to advance the numbering of the output f~le will cause~he~original output file or the output files from other alterations to be overwritten. /-;' 1/ 234. IIGO .FT 11 FOOl DD DSN~UyL. OF .PR!. DATA( COM~j) , DISP=SHR 235. IIGO.fT12FOOl DD DSN=YYL.OF.PRI.DATA(PFOR>;OISP=SHR 236. IIGO.FT13FOOl DD DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI),DISP=SHR .. 237. IIGO.FT14FOOl DD DSN=UYL.OF.PRI.~URVIVE1,DISP=SHR 238. IIGO.FTI5F001 DD DSN=OPPFM.Y'9B6.NEWADMT3,DlSP=(NEW,CATLG,DELETE), i 238.1 1/ UNIT~CDISK,SPACE=(4QO,(IOO,100),RLSE), 238.2 II DCB=(RECFH=FB,LRtCL=80 y BLKSIZE=400) 239. IIGO.SYSIN DD :/< r f< \ II, 1- -. " . .~-=:;.-: I) , , " , 107 ,. o.- . , 1 , .) .... ··-,-~,·,·,·',~--·-·,~"".f'L.,. , __.... "_ •.. :' /;,", , ~ ", Once the new input f i Ie SURV I VE 1 and t h e new o.utput <:1=i Ie $QPPfM.V1986. i f o , estab I i shed, it may be des j rab 1e to' make mi no.r change~ or \ , ~~ ~EWADMT3 are URVIVE f I .\, II. Not ice in the JeL above for L/ B (PAROLEES) that new f i I es are created for correctio.ns in the SURVI. VEl file without establishing a newS Ie. \ the subpopulatien output files $OPPFM.Y1986.BOARD and $OPPFM.Y'l986.COURT. To avo.lq creating this unwanted o.utput f'lI e us e the altered.' JCL sho.l,m The new output files can be recegnized as BOARD3)AND COURT3. Inllthe below.. Notice. t hat I"Ines 238.• 1 and'! 238.2 have been deleted and that the s) tuat i on Where chan;ges or correct ions are made to the input data file ~ISP statement In 238 has been change~ tb (OLD,KEEP,DELETE). SURVIVEl but the sUbpepulation output file $OPPFM. Y1 986.NEWAbMT3 is used it would IlaO.FT11FOOl nn DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM),D~S~:6~: " i,\~ be'preferabJe to use the JCL sh,own belew f9~ LlB(PAROLE~SJ.• 234. IIGO.fT12FOO~ DD DS~=YYL.OF.PRI.DATA(PFOR)!D1S~-S 2~5. IIGO.FT13FOOl Dri DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDIl,DISP-SHR I 334. 23~. . IIYL OF PRI SURVIVE1 DISP=SHR 335. I/GO.FT16F001 DD DSN=OPPFM.V19a6.BOARD3,DISP=(Ol~,KEEP.DELETE) 237. IIGO.FT14FOal DD QaN=w ,'M y'198~ NE\JADMT~ DISP=(OLD,KEEP,DELETE) , 336. IIGO.FT17FOOt DB DSN=OPPFH.Y198A.COURTJ,DISP=(OLD,KEEP,DELETE)' 23B. IIGO.FT15FQOl DD DSN=QPfF • ., 337. I/GO~fTl1F001 DD DSN=OPPFH.Y1986.BASEPOP,DlSP=SHR 239. IIGO.SYSIN UD • 338. IIGO.FTI2FOOI DD DSN=OPPFM.V1986.NEUADMT3,DISP=SHR u IIGO.FT10FOOIDD DSN:::;UYL.OJ=.PRl.SURVIVE1,DISF'=Sl-It' . h JCL is selected for the program LlB(NEWADMlT}~ it must be Once t e prpper .\ SAVE #NEWADM I T saved to reta in the proper JCL. The command used here fS: . , Once the proper JCL is' selected for, the program LJB(PAROLEES):,,;it must be saved to reta in that JeL. Use the corrmand: SAVE #PAROLEES REP. To 1 LIB(NEWADMlT) to the new output REP. Then it is necessary to run l~enerate 's' RUN UNN file $OPPFM.V1986.NEWAPMT3. The command to run the pr~!;Iram I : generate the subpopulation output files for $OP.PFM.Y1986.BOARDj) and V1 TER STP. The output from th is w ill generate a new disk f r1 e. Th IS f '.1 e can $OPPFM. 986.COURT3, LIB(PAROLEES) must be run. Use ~he_command: RUN UNN .' . th co;",y,and: USE $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT3. It IS nQt ,TER STD. The output from this program wi)) generate tWo new disk fi les. be examIned by Us I ng e "~,, . . '.' (,., " qdvisable to. print the e.ntire. file because it is over 3,400 lines long. No. output is sent directly to user's terminal. If the User desires to view tbe output the conmand to use is: USE $OPPFM.1986.BOARD3 (or COURT3). It ~ext, insure that the prpper JCL is used, in LIB(PAROLEES). failure to d use" is not adv i sab Je to pc I nt the ent ire f I J e because each of them is very flii 'he ro er JCL in this program will cause tbe forecast model tp pro ~ce large. .11':\' t p p 1 tncorrect JCL will cause LlB(eAROLEES} to. receive 'I qrroneo.us resu ts. t JCL 1 II'\t incorrect new admissio.ns t o.. prison data. In this example the correc F i na 11 y, to produce a forecast that represents" the C:,hanges in the new \'1 is as follows: length of stay data inSUre that the proper JCL is used, in L/B(WB,ITER}. Fa i 1ure to use the proper JeL in th Is program wi I} cause the forecast",most to produce erroneous results. The JGl that should be used to. generate the 334. IIGO.FT16FOOl 'DD DSNRE=COFf'~~MFB Y~~~~L!~~R~~K~i~~:~~~~\:CATLG ,DELETE) correct forecast is as fellows: 334.1 II UNIT=CDlSK,iDCB=( n- ' , JII (! 334.2 oc I) 194. II SPACE= <400 (.1 00, 10~), ~~H"'~19B6. COURT3, n!Bp:(NE i~ CATLG ,DELETE) 195. IIGO.FT12FOOI DD DSN~OPPFM.Y19B6.BASEPOP,DISPBSHR 335. 1160.FT13FOOI DB DSN=OPPFH.Y19B6.NEUADHT3,nISP=SHR 335. t ~ ~a~N;~!~~~~~, :~B~~:~~~H.f1;, ~RECL:aO ,~LKSIZE.400y; 196. 197. 1/60. FTI4F001t1n DSN=OPPH1.V1986.COURT3,DISP=SHR 335.2 () /IGO.FTI5FOOI DD DSN=OPPFH.Yt986.BOARD3,nISP:::SHR II SPAC~=(400'tOO,100),RLSPFE! Y'1986 DASEPOP D1SP~~HR 6 19B. 336. FOOt DD DSN=OP -I,. ~UI~ ,.' IIGO.S'(SIN DD * 337. IIOD.FTll. ' _ PfH Y19S6 NEWADMT3 DISP=SHR LI B (WR ITER) II{lO.FTt2F.OOl nDD DDSsNN=~PYl OF' PRI SURVIVE1,IIISP=SHR produces a forematted, report wh i ch i Si the forecast. The fJ rst 33B~ IIGQ.FT10F001, D -w -. • • ." ) .. 3~9. IIGO.SYSIN Dn * section of this report is a monthly forecast for the entire forecast period ..... by type of crime and sex. This report: comes directly to the users inter- active termtnal. o "!I , 109 •. ='\] I:; ;1 I . ", . '\ \S , ~~:;;;,,~~=:::-:;"-~,;..::.,~:--=::::::.c:-,~,=,::"";::O::'=L;~"'~,- ,~, .. =,"' .·.-.="-:==="",=:~',,,,~,o_"'==r='-i;~""'='''--''c,-,;==c:',:,''_"'=:~:C::::~-:-.;.~:::._.::..-:,:,."==.-,,,"_,·! ,. ,ib "Ii" c patter!,}. It is very important to ma i nta in. the estab 1 i shed st ructure. of the GHANGlhlG TH~ EXI,~nNG PRISON POPU,"-ATION , " matrix. Failure to use the established structure for') this matrix will c '" T~er~ ~re three major steps nl3~~ss~ry for ~lterillg the.)'e,xistin~ p.risqn cause the program to fail or to produce erroneQus results. RPpul~t:lpn inp!J~. The firEit st~p iS1ip qetermine whp.t the c:h~/1~I=~ Are in (i The third ,<;hange needed for running 9n updated version of WYL.OF .PRI.L1B tl1~ ~PQqt~d prispn ppp41a,tl~n; theft i~, Qata file -,.. WYl,..QF.PRl~J;XrSTPpr !1ll-l ~f;:l !-IRf4ated, ~ecpn~,- appropriate Gh~nge$ in theprogr~m WYt.Of .PRJ. (BASEPOP) is the update of the release matrix for those in the prison base st .') " '-' ~ populCltion who are categorized as ,backlogged offenders. The number of-, 1..1 B. OH\~EPOP}.' Ane! th 1ra, make the necessary:chl'mges in thl3 J.GL. j n th~ c, offenders in t~is category wH 1 vary from updatJ to updat~, how~ver the' ijffe~t~q prg9f~m~~ structur~of the release matrix will remain the same. This release matrix, Step " " '1 is located between lines 123 through 162. The documentation on liThe Ba.se 'W:'~ Populationll .in part: 1 of this document should ba revi.ewed before changing \~¥h!Qf,PRt,~¥ISTPQP I~ ~he inpu.td~ta"flle that provide$ the il1f~mT1atiQn th is matr ix. Changes in th i s matr ixare made by updati ng the number of ~rqce~§eg ~¥ th~ ~,rQ9rR~ WY~~Pf .fBI ~J,.la(E~A~b~o.P), The recent If::lyp,ut f~r proposed releases in each of the cells in the matrix. Although the values th 1~ d~t~ f 11 e c{!ln Poe found in p1:lrt; t 9f th i 5 dpculQent.c> Whe~ ypdClt i 09 t;h i s in the mattix wi'll change, it is very important to maintain the establ ished -'f:~\le it is imp.il?rt~rW tQ m~intain ~h~ ~HiJ1le r~coro s.tructL!re~ The thip9 th9.t structure of the matrix. Failure to use the established structure-of this u mat~ix will cause the program to fail or to produce erroneous results. wd'l ch~ng.e with e~ch UPq~'~~ 'j;h~t t?ffeG'ts the (pr09r~rn i sthe nU.l11per of () 0 .: ,; ) i qqses~ Pr~sently, thi:;i fifle iii updated on an"annl-l~ll;>.e$h~ Data for ttl,is 0 Step 3 4Pdi'lte is. p.rovided by the~~p,~rtm!!mt of Corre.ctlqn$. 0 " I ::( , pi a " Once the changes are made in the data f il e WYL. OF. PR I • EX I STPOP and the 11 " c::-, program WYL.OF.PRI.t:.I,B(BASEPOP)" the ne~t step is to run a new forecast. u" ", Qnce WYL.Of.P-RI.EXI$.TPOP is. update.q a pumber of chijn~essho,~lq be made In This requires a number of program alterations. In this step no alterations t.h~ progri'lm WYL.~Qf~PRI.l,.;IIHaASE~C)p). ThefJrst change that:lllyst be made i$ are required in the Fortran programs. All changes are limited to JOD, II ~. '. .... '" ~ simple filHe.t"atioll in the; Fortr~n seC~Ip.n Qf the pr9.Qr~IT\,?which pertClins. control language (JcL). The fol lowing is the sequence of the necessary " ' l alterations. t.O the change. i 0 the,_,m~mber pf pen~Qn~ in the WYL;9F;frRl ~EX.I $lJ OP data I fiile, To m~ke this'·ch~nge. locqte line 19" in th~'prQgr~m WYl,,\!OF!P~h L,IB(B.A$EPOI?-) 9nd a1t:er th'e second par~.met~r~ The ~)f'igin?l value here I~ After the prep,er changes have been made in the program WYL.OF .PRI .L1B 4nQ. (8A$EPOP), insure that the corr~ct input files are b~ingr.ead and the correct output fiole'S are being generated. The'>JCL for WYL.OF.PRI.L1B \ The ~e!'}Qnd ch.9ng~ that may be nee(ieci for an updi:'\ted nm of WYl..Q{'\PRI.t..t B (13ASEPOP) s~,?uld appear at fo,11ows for the :initial run with the updated \ 1, , " ! (BA.SEP.QP.) i s. cmUPd~te~.f· 'the cQnQeo~ed r~l ease soheau Ie useo for peq;Qn~ \;\j .... WYL. OF • PR I • EX I STPOP • Not ice that thefi Ie be i ng read in is WYL. OF :PR I • \ in the b!i:\sefl9.pul~tipn whQ !{g nQth$lve minilnl,.,\~rnt~rllH?< assigneO. This releii!se EXISTPOP1- Renaming the nt:e from EXI STPOP to EXI STPOPl Lnsures that the i "original input data file wif'l"not Q.~ overwritten. Also notice in line 103 m~trix(;'~m b~ f9undb~tWl3en 1 iri'135 lQS anc),l?'Z QfWYL.OF .PR! .Lla(~ASEPQP.}i ,~ ~ '.' ,.... , The i 9.0 liThe aaSI3 Popu 1at j onn f'n pgrt 1 of th i $. c\PClIffient, that the output file has been renamed $OPPFM.Yt986.BASEPOP1. Failure to .\ "~p~um~~tij~ P~ . .' ~l aavance the number i ng of the output f i I e wi 11 c;apse the or i gina 1 output t !),h~~ld. bl3 r~\lie\iled before chqngi!19 tlfismatrix. Chan~es in th~ matrix are~ , I' ",:' • D "', 1 file to be overwritten. ,,) 1 simp.ly made by entering a, new relei:!sl3 pattern in pl~ce of the ql0 relea"~~ It ' (.) , (, " (, o 'lj 1J i) .< 111 (I) 110 \1",. ';\ ""':-' t\~1 -,-" .... ,'--.-~, ...... "--,~- .~-." .... --.. ~--"- .... - -~ ~.-- -~.--~.- .-~.-.--,...., '1/, (' '''''''" I: -.~ II _'. -~ ""I I F PRI EXISTPOP1 DISP=SHR 102. 1100.FT12F001 DDDDDSDHS--~~LOP~FM Y1986 BASEPOP1,DISP=(NEU,CATLG,DELETE), I/GO.FT13FOOI ,) R- •• (I' ~~~:, 1/ UHIT=CDISK,SPACE=(400(100,100)~RLSE), ~otice in the JCL above for LIB(PAROLEES) that new files are created for 103.2 II DCB=(RECFH=FB,LRECl=SO,BL~SIZE-400) the subpopulation output files $OPPFM.V1986~BOARD and $OPPFM.V1986.COURT. 104.. IIGO.SYSIN DD * '. $ PFM V1986 Once the n~~i"~-' nput file EX ISTPOP 1 and the new , output fi Ie OP. • 'The new output files can be recognized as BOARD 4 and COURT4. In the BASEPOP1 are .establlshed,. .It may be des i rab 1e ,to make mi hor changesF PRI LIBor '~ituation'* Where chang~s Df corrections are made to data file EXISTPOPl or . . th EXISTPOPl fi Ie or with the program WVL.O. • the, program LJ B(BASEPOP) but the subpopu I at ion output f iJ e $OPPFM. V1986. corrections In e ile Avoid creating the (BASEPOP) without chang i ng the name of the output f., . . ,; the BASEP{lPl is used it would be preferable to 'use the JCL shown below for 1I B(PAROLEES) • unwanted output files use the altered JCL shown below. NotIce th~ltn Jines 103.1 and 103.2 have been deleted an d t h a t th e DISP statement 238 334. I IGO. FT 16FOOt DD DSN=OPPFli. Y1986. BOARD4, DISP= « , 113 I\, .~¢-- ~~=====<"7~~~--:-~~_'_'':c;:::::;;;:::: =~= __' __ ~. fI I - \,' r /) I CHANGING THE STATE POPULATION I Q. , I 234. /160.FT11FOOl DD.DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATAICOMM),DISP=SHR 235. There are two major steps necessary for altering the stat~s population in 1160.FT12FOOl DD DSN=WYL.OF.PRI~DATA(PFOR1),DISP=SHR <-~:~, 236. 1160.FT13FOOl DD DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATAeJBI),DIBP=SHR 237. the prison ,population forecast model. The first step is to ascertain what 1160~FT14FOOI DB DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.SURVIUE,DISP=SHR ~ 238. I the most recent state popUlation is. Periodic updates for the state1s 1160.FT15FOOl DD DSN=OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT4,DISP=(NEU CATlG DFLETE) 238.1 II UNIT=CDISK,SPACE=(400,e100,100),RLSE), ,,- -. population are produced by the Office of Financial Management Division of 238.2 II DCB=(RECFM=FB,LRECL=80~BLKSIZE=400) 239. Forecasting and Estimations. The second step is to make the necessary j !/GO.SYSIN Dn * I / changes in the JCL in the affected programs to run a new forecast. 0' .. ~ 1 I ,Once the new input file PF~Rl and the new output file $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT4 are established, it may b~ desirable to make minor changes or correction~' i Step 1 in the PFORl file without establishing a new PFOR file. To avoid creating th is unwanted output f i I e use the a I tered JCL shown be I w. Not ice that If The state I s popu I at j on forecast is generated independent of the pr i s.on lines 235. 1 a~d 235.2 have been de I eted and that the 0 I s(statement in 238 popu I at i on forecast. The output from the OFM state popu I at ioh forecast has been changed to (OLD,KEEP,DELETE). ' -.~ o that is used for ~nput for the prison population f6r~cast is a single year " I 234. I/GO.FT11F001 DD DSN=WYl.OF.PRI.DATACCDMM),DISP=SHR twenty year forecast for each sex and for single year age groups. The. 235. IIGO.FT12F001 DD nSN=WYL.OF,PRI.DATA(PFORlb,DISP=SHR 236. 1160.FT13F001 DD DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI),DISP=SHR d~tail available in the state population forecast is more than sufficient 237. 1~60.FT1!FOOl DD DSN=WYL.OF.PRI.SURvrVE,DISP=SHR . for any alterations that might be needed for the prison popUlation 238. 1.60.FT1~FOOl .DD DSN=OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT4 DISP=(OLD VEEP DELETE' 239. IIGO.SYSIN IID :(. " \, ) forecast. Check with OFM to determine the latest update for the forecasted Washington State population. Presently there are two population forecast Once the proper JCL ,is selected for the program LlB04EWADMIT), if must be stored. -- WYL.OF .PRI.DATA(PFOR) and WYL.OF .PRI .DATA(PFOR1). .saved to retain the proper JCL. The command used here is: SAVE #NEWADMIT J j REP. Then .,~~)t is n~cessary to r.!Jn LlB(NEWADMIT) fto gener:ate the new output Step 2 file $OPPFM~Y1986.NEWADMT4. The co~and to run the!/\prog~am is: RUN UNN TER STD. The output from this will generate a new disk file. This file can Once the latest update for the state IS popu I ati o~, forecasti s i dent if i ed be examined by using the command:' USE $OPPFM.Y1986.NEWADMT4. It is not the next step is to run a new forecast. This requires a number of program advisable to print the entire file because it is over 3,400 lines long. alterations. in this example no alterations are required in the Fortran programs. All changes are 1 imited to job control language (JCl). The It is possibJe to obtain a report from the run of LlB(NEWADMIT). To obtain i lJ; following is the sequence of the necessary alterations. this report make sure that the Fortran switches on lines 26 and 27 of LlB(NEWADMIT) are set to 1. This report comes directf:y to the users Insure that the program LIB (NEWADMIT) reads the correct input and interact ive termi na I. Th is report sows. h th e num b er of new' , admissions to i the pri~ons from the courts. 0 generates the correct output fi les. The JCL shoul.dappearas shown below ! • .< for the initial run of the new conviction rate data.(~otice that in line 235 that PFORl is read which corresponds '(lith the name of the new con Next, insure that the proper JCL is used in LIB(PAROLEES). Failure to use vi ct i on rate f i I e. AI so not ice that L~ Ii ne 238 that NEWADMT4 is used as the proper JCL in this program will cause the f~recast model to produce erroneous results. Incorrect JCl wi II cauSe LlB(PAROLEES) to receive th~output file. Failure to,advan<:;e the numbertng of the output file will ."; '" , ,} incorrect new admissions to, 'pr 'I son data. F th' I ~ cause another output file to be overwritten. or IS examp e the correct JCL is as fo II ows: \ ' " 114 , 115 II Y I - . -.--~ < .! l- 334. IIGO.FT16FOOl DD DSN=DPRFM.Y1986.BOARD5,DISP=(NEU,CATLG,DELETE), f 334.1 II UNIT=CDISK,DCB= 116 . , . ..... ---=-.. . 9' I " '\ o EXHIBIT 2:10 WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISREPT) AGE LABELS EXHIBIT 2:9 WYL.OF.PRI .LIB(HISREPT)·S AGE STRUCTURE DATA 405. 01104 1 1 2'11'12121313 ------406. 01204 1 1 ~111212'13'13 21112121313 ... 407. 2,t 4 1 1 427. 11 4LESS THAN laO 18--3(1 40 'ANti OVER TOTAL GI~OUP .J GROUP 6 2111212'1313 408. 2~ 4 1 1 42B~ GROUP 7, GROUP a GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 'II GROUP 12 409. ~51 4 1 1 2'1112'121313 429. GROUP 13 . 2111212'1313 410. 32 41 1 " I· 430. 12 4LESS THAN 18 If 18-39 40 Arm Dvm TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 5 1 1 2 8 91 '1'121213 '13 GROUP 12 411- 41 I 431. GROUP 7 GROUP ~ ~GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 42 4 1 r 21112121313 " I 412. .:, I 432. GROUP 13 4'13. S'I B 1 'I 2 4 5 7 8 91010111112121313 I 433. 21 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND qVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 ( 414. 52 4 1 1 21112121313 , i 434. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 1 2 4 5 8 9 91010111112121313 415. 618 1 , ; I II 435. GROUP 13 1 2f'112121313 co 416. 62 4·1 I 436. 22 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP u,. GROUP 6 ~ 2 4 5 7 8 91010111112121313 !: I Ir 417. 7"1 8 'I 1 ",I! 437. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP '10 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 G 2 4 5 7 8 9101112121313 418. 72 7 1 1 Co 438. GROUP 13 2 5 6 8 9 91010111112121313 i If 419. 81 8 1 1 439. 31 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 ~ND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5. GROUP 6 420. 82 4 'I 'I 21 'I '12 121 31 3 I., q 440. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 "uROUP 12 421- 91 4 1 1 21112121313 " I 441. GROUP 13 422. 92 4 1 1 2111212'1313 I 442. 32 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL ).3ROUP 5 GROUP 6 423. 101 4 1 1 21112'121313 .,I 443. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 > "GROUP' 11 GROUP 12 } 424. '102 4 1 'I 2"111212'1313 , . 444. GROUP 13 [, 223 3 4 4 55 6 6 ? ~B a 991G10111112121313 : I ,~ . .:I 11113 1 1 445. 41 5LESS THAN 18 18-24 25-39 40 AN[f OVER TOTAL GROUP 6 425. 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 566 7 7 a B 9 .9~O10111112121313 \\ \ 1 "";~ 426. 11213 1 1 , " !Il~ ~j f 446. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP '10 GROUP '11 GROUP 12 -~---.~-.. 447. GROUP 13 1 GROUP GR!3UP 6 ".~) ri I 448. 42 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL 5 \ , GROUP 7 GROUP 8 "",' GROUP 9 GRolJrr l "0 449 i/ ~,::::,,7' GROUP 11 G~~ 12 ':, J' 450; GROUP 13 1 451. 51 8LESS THAN 18 18-20 21-23 24-29 30-34 35-39 C : "I 452 • 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GR UP 12 r .f ~ I 453. 11 GROUP 13 454. 52 4LESS THAN 18 ' 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 .\ I 455. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP '11 GROUP 12 1 I 456. GROUP 13 30,-:;4 , 457. 61 BLESS THAN 18 18-20 21-24 25-29 35-39 \ . j I 458. 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 9 GROUP "0 GROUP 1" GROUP 12 459. GROUP 13 460. 62 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 ANI! OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 o GROUP 6 461. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP "0 GROUP 'II GROUP 12 /1 462. GROUP 13 }-') If I 463. 71 8LESS THAN 18 t8-20 21-23 24-29 30-34 35-39 i 464. 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP (1 GROUP 10 GROUP "II GROUP 12 465. GROUP 13 o " , . \ _~_w._._~_'~ , ~I / ',' __ '~~.~"'_~' ___"' .... ,~--,,~;o..~~_~ __ \\ EXH I BIT 2: 10 (cont.) Each row 'of the age structure data set (Exhibit 2:9) represents a sp~cific o'"ime and sex SUbgroup. The first two colun:ms in each row refer to the type of crime. The code for the types of crime are: 01 murder 1, murder i 02 j , 2,03 manslaughter, 04 sex crime!?, 05 robbery, 06 ass,i'l uJt, 07 property i (~ crrmes, 08 drug offenses, 09 other felanies, 10 crimes not reported, and 11 a I I cr imes. . The th i rd co I umn in each row refer to the type of sex. 1 , ; equals males and 2 equals females. The .,fourth column represents the number j ,L of age subgroups vsed for that specific crime and sex subgroup. For 466. n ?LESS THAN 'J 8 18-20 21-23 24-29 30-39 40 ANII OVER ,f 467. TOTAL GROUP 8 GROUP 9 Gr{OUp 10 GROUP 1'1 GROUP 12 instance in line 405 of WYL.OF.PRI.L1B(HISREPT) the 04 in the fourthcand ! 468. GROUP 13 469. 131 8LESS THAN 18 '18-21 22-24, 25,-29 30-34 35-39 fifth column inform the analyst that the numbers follo~ing to the right set ! 470. 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 9 I3I~OUP 10 GROUP 1'1 ) GROUP I"... the limits for four separate age subgroups. The remainder of each line is f 471. GROUP 13 f 472. 82 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 a series of two space fields. The first of these fields represents the 473. GROUP 7 GRQUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 'II GROUP 12 lower,) limit of the youngest age group. The second of .. these fields I 474. ~ GROUP 1~ ! represents'/ the upper limit of the youngest age groups. The third field r 475. ,) n 4LESS THAR 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GHOUP "" 'GROUP '~:I 476. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP 10 GROUP 11 GROUPif2 represents the lower limit of next older age group, and the fourth field 1 477. GROUP 13 1 478. 92 4LESS THAN 18 . 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP 5 GRO'UP 6 represents the upper limit of the next older age group. This pattern is 479. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP " 0 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 ',f'folJowed(j until lower and upper limits of each age group are established. d 480. GROUP 13 ,:;::::::;.- 481. 101 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 It is not necessary that the full line be filled in with numbers,because 40 AND ovm TOTAL GROUP 5 GROUP 6 7 :_, 482. GROUP 7 GROUP 8 GROUP 9 GROUP '10 GROUP 1" GROUP 12 the program wit. I not read beyond the number of age groups spec i ~ ed in 4B3. GROUP 13 0 Ii ' " columns four and five. I:;' ! 484. 102 4LESS THAN 18 18-39 40 AND OVER TOTAL GROUP ,J GROUP 6 485. GROUP 7 GROUP a GROUP 9 GROUP " 0 GROUP 11 GROUP 12 ~! 486. GROUP 13 The code for the age groups used in WYL.OF.PRI.L1B(HiSREPT) andWYL.oF. 487. 11113LE55 THAN 18 18 '19 20 2" 22 '. I 488. 23 24 25'-29 30-34 35-39 40 AND OVER PRI.LIB(NEWADMIT) is as follows: ~, 489. TOTAL ! 490. 11213LE55 THAN 18 18 19 20 2:1 22 491. 23 24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 AND OVER , 492. TOTAL 16 to 17 7 23 ,(/ ~ 2 18 8 24 3" 19 9 ;\ 25 to 29 { 4 20 II, 10 3lJ to 34 ! 5 21 11 35 to 39 ~~ I0 6 22 12 40 and over ! I H Al I ages I, I d r;'l~ \JI o , I <\ , \, 120 , , 121 . / '------'-,- ,-,-,. , ~ II i , , f' I_",1 .< , II ,I To illustrate the age stru~:ifuredata"i file layout line 405 of this file is 'I .:-,. i rtterp reted be low. 1'1 02204. The correct line I s line 436 ~ Once located one needs on I y to I" (: ~.I Ii (! replace the desired label with,the relat~d group. Once the proper line is 011041 2 111212 i:~ 13 : I located the first thing to check is the initial fourth and fifth columns. o 'Il,,':' l/ This number should coincide with the number of age groups desired. Then ':iI ' f) Tlte initial 01 refers to thil\Jyp~·<::f.f crime -- murder 1. The 1 Hlihe third < ' II\".1 all one has to do is to place the desired label with the appropri~te group. column refers to males. The 04 in the fourth and fifth columns indicates ~ I ,the number of age groups to follow. Then taking the columns four spaces at " , 11'\ 'I, a time the lower and upper limitsof,the age groups cap be described. In columns 6 through 9 af"l is recorded. This means"thatJithe'"Jower limit is 1 and the upper limit is 1; the age group referred to here is 16 17 year olds. In columns 10 through 13 a 211 is printed. This means the lower limit is 2 and the upper limit is 11; the age group referred to here )s 18 to 39 year '0 olds. In columns 14 through 17 the age group referred to is th05e 40 and over, and in columns 18 through 21 the total for all ages are referred. Th'e key ito chang i ng the age groups for any spec if i c cr ime and age category is to iJsure that columns four and five repres~nt the number of age sub diVisions desired. Then one needs only to list to the right as described ab'Ove the lower and upper limits for each of the desired age groups. il. Notice that it is p~rmissible to use the samec,number for both the lower ,anti I) o ut$er 1 imit. In fact doing so for each age group wi 11 provide maximum ag~ detail, because each age group is used. Lines 425 and 426 provide such an o examp 1e. Fibally, it is important to make the appropriate changes tn the labels for the changed age groups. To make this change all that hEs to be dorie is identify the lables that need to be changed by comparing the fLrst five I '/ . sp~cesbf the 1 ine to be changed with the first five spaces of ~he 'I ines in the lable file. For instance, if one wanted to change the fourth line in the age structure data set, which is initiated with the numbers 02204, tbe " report labels for this crime sex group -- murder :2 females -- can be changed by 1ocat i ng the 1 i ne between the 1 i nes 427 and 492 that ~\)eg'fns wi th ,-;: .jl "'~~' 1\ ! , : o 122 <) t\ o , 123 '~-"""'-'- ...,-;:-::---~~----_~.."...,_ ... ,I " e o. I.) ~4"~~--~------==-== J , ~- ~-____r~_ II) 'I \ ) ,~ ~- \,';;'J> Oc .,,' --' ~I II ",' G ' , ~",";":,_.. """,~ ___~-,,-_;;,,~,~"-_.~_~;,,,,-~..;;'.~-,,,," ______~-_'"'_ __ ,_" __.~--,_~---.:.__,_'JI-) -~~~~,.:...-..;~~~I""'t\.,... __ "\1" r: r.! J, i l r \ ~i II I, eX IC t \\, '" • • • "': o ,~ I "0 " ii , \: o II \ " , \,