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Prison Population Forecast for Washington State

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Prison Population Forecast for Washington State -'----",----- --...,.,-----,,--...,,--~~------~--- ,----' ---''''--- ;:£.t::: ~,~- ., \ ~"'-.' -;- - () " 0 (J (') ~~.:,::" ,"W:;;'_':;;"-_"'~_1.,_'_' --'"-' .),':':=-"::::"-'-""'~=.===~."'p """"'" .~ .... ~ •• - ....... ~~~"'.... '~...... - ........... '-' ~.>- ~ .. _.~," . "--.'~' . if- - D a ' .'~ C a (. 0 i~ . ~I ,;) " National Criminal Justice Reference Service a Q " (1 , '--------------'nCJrs :1 This microfiche was produced from documents received for , ~ 0 ,lnclusion in the NCJRS data base. Since NCJRS cannot exercise 'control over the physical condition of the documents submitted, (.') c ~l ': 0 ~ the individual frame quality will vary. The resolution chart on Q d . .. ~ 0 this frame may be used to evaluate the document quality. ~l, "PRISON POPQiLATIONoFORECAST 0 ·:FOR··WASH~l'iGTON STAT'E~FY ·t'982-'i995:~ .' TECHNICAL PROGRAMMIN°G 0 0 I 111. I DO~~ENTATION . [ o I 1.1 "0 ;"(ll c, c~o 111111.25 111111.4 tllll/.6 I '" ~ 0 I o· ! -~ " 1, '" 1 I \ o MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TE~T CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS-1963-A Preparedo for • ~---------:----; Governor's Interagency Criminal" Justice Q Work Group. e <J o ~ ._ by the _ Microfilming procedures us~d to cr~eate this fiche comply with o Office of Financial Management the standards set forth in 41CFR 101-11.504. Division of Forecasting & Estimation Points of view or opinions stated in this document are those of the author(s) and do not represent the official­ position or, policies of the U. S. Depat1ment of Justice. .\ Q!'J 2/10/.83 . National Institute of Justice " 'f ~, July ,1982= {\ ., I United States Department of Justicle 0::; (? .. Washington, D. C. 20531 .' . ('~ ,,_,. ...;M..- ~ It' "'~.:~- -... o o ./ . ... : . ~~------~- - -----------------------......---------~--------.,::;,~t_.~.~:_.. _~=~~_:._~.~_~ o STA1.""E OF WASHiNGTON o John Spellman, Governor ]PRISON POPUILATION FORECAST or, FOIffi, WA§JHIINGTON §TATlE=FY 1982=1995~ \ TECHNICAL PROGRAMMING DOCUMENTATION .' {. ~ I" " ~ i i ! '" Preparea-for Governor's Interagency Criminal Justice Work Group 85539 U.S. Department of Justice by the National Institute of Justice Office of Financial Management ! This document has been reproduced exactly .as recei~e? from the i person or organization originating it. Points of view or opInions stat~d 1 I) in this document are those of the authors and do. not nec~ssanly Division of Forecasting & Estimation represent the official position or policies of the Nabonal Insbtute of Justice. Permission to reproduce this c9f!~'ri!lI'lt!!tl material has been granted by State of WA/Office of Financial Mgmt DiVe of Forecasting & Estimation to the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (NCJRS). Further reproduction outside of the NCJRS system requires permis­ J 1Ul.ly 1 ~82 sion of the cGjO; IigLt"Owner. I I__ ~- OFM 40599 -327- , '. , . "'.~ -"-~~.,, '.~.,~~~, , ...., .. -' ..';""-..1 __ ~.~~"'--'-... ~.~.,.....,."-.-,~~~ .... ;~ •...,_ .. ''''.,..,.,,. -.,-;. ;I I •. JI TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT) Page PART 2: USER AID ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••••••••••.••••••••• 80 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................... CI •••••• 0 ••• 0 ••••••• i-i i I USER AID ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ~. 82 LIST OF I LLUSTRAT IONS. " •••••• 0 ......... It ••••••• 0 ••••••••••••••••••• i i i-v CHANGING THE JDI PERCENTAGES •••••••• /i •••••••••••••••••••••••• 87 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ........................ vi Step 1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 87 PRISON POPULATION FORECAST , l TECHNICAL PROGRAMMING DOCUMENTATION •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 5 tep 2 ... It ................................................. 89 OVERV I EW ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• to ••••• CHANG ING THE CONV I CT ION RI\TES ••••••••••••••••••' •••••••••••••• 93 1. \ Step 1 ..................................................... Report Organization •••••••••••••••• .............. 0 •••••••••• 5 93 PARr I: FILE STRUCTURE & PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION ••••••••••• ~ ••••••• 6 Step 2 ................. II\ •••••••••••• CI •••••••••••••••••••••• 96 THE FILE STRUCTURE ••.•.•••••.•••••••••••• ..................... 8 CHANGING THE LENGTH OF STAY PATTERNS ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 99 j ••• '••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ••••••••••••••••••••••• " o Da t a F i J e s ••••• \I .......................... ~ ••••••••• '" ....... 8 l S t e pl • . 99 '1 Programs ••..••.••••••..••• lk •••• 0 •••••• o •••••••••••• " ••••••• 10 Step 2 .. j.') •••••••••••••••• II •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 •••• 105 •1 Input P rograms •••••••••••••••••••••• ••••••••••••••••••••• ti • 11 CHANGING THE EXISTING PRISON POPULATION •••••••••••••••••••••• 108 t Step 1 ...• e •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• :) ................ /I • Source Programs ••••••••••••••••••••••••• •••• 0 •••••••• 0 ••••• 11 A 108 Subpopulation Forecast Files ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 12 Step 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ~~ ••••••••••••• 108 THE BASE POPULAT J ON ••• ., •• ill •••••••••••••• • ' ••••• .to ••••••• 0 0 ••••• 13 Step 3 ••••••• o •• o •• o •••••••••• ~ ••••••••• e •• oo •••••••••••• 109 Spec ial Problems ............................. e ••••••••••••••• 22 CHANGING THE STATE POPULATJON •••••• ~ ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 112 NEW ADMISSIONS FROM THE COURTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 27 Step 1 0 ••• II .' ••••••• ,••••••••••• v ••••• ,•••••• ~ ••.•••••••••••••• 112 ADMISSIONS DUE TO PAROLE FAILURE ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 40 Step 2.o •• !' ••••••••••••••••••••••• ~ •••••• o •••••••••••••••••• 112 THE REPORT WRITER •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 53 <I CHANGING THE AGE GROUPiNGS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 115 a HI STOR I CAL ANAL YS IS •••• II •••••••••••••••• ~ •••••••••••••••••••• 60 GENERATION OF THE LENGTH OF STAY DiSTRIBUTIONS ••••••••••••••• 76 f .... f r / .... 't:J:: ____ : ___' _,_ ' " .. 1 < -1"• .' -.---~~-- .-.- ~~'---'~' 1/h LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (CONT.) LJ ST OF IllUSTRATI ONS Page EXH I8 IT 11. I The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(NEWADMIT) Page The Forecast of the New Admissions From the Courts •••• j;' 1.... 34 EXH IB IT 1. ;i EXH IB IT 12. , /I The Conceptual Structure of the Prison Populatil?n Forecast Mode I ' ••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••".< •pI, •• •••••••••••• Ex. Worksheet That J:.; Calculated By the Program II WYL.OF.PRI.LIB.(P/AR:1LEES) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• !/..... 42 EXHJBIT 2. EXHIBIT 13. f;I The File Structure For the Prison Population ,! i Algorithm Depicting Calculation of Parole H Forecast Computer Model ••••••••••••••••••••• r..••.••••.••••• 9 o Returnee Forecast ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• fi ••••••• C 43 EXHIBIT 3. II The Data File WYl.OF.PRI .EXISTPOP; The Data Base EXHIB IT 14. '., . /' The Program LI~ltlng of WYL.OF.PRI.,LlB(PAROLEES) •••• ,••••••••• From Which The Base Population Forecast" is Malde ••••••••••••• 15 46 \ EXHIBIT 4. EXHIB IT 15. I ~ .. ~: Forecast Algorithm For The Base Population .~ •••••••••••••••• Ex. of the Report Produced By WYLOF.PRI.LlB(WRITER) •• ....... 54 16 i EXHIBIT 5. EXHIBIT 16. The Distribution of Release Dates For the B~lse Population. Ex. of the RfJport Produced By WYL..OF.PRI.LlB.(~JRI1"f!R) I ....... 55 In Terms of Time Remaining In Prison •••••• ~ ••••••••••• ~j •••• 18 . , .i!-. EXHIBIT 17. ~XHIBIT 6. I The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(WRITER) ................ 56 0 The Distribution of the Base Population As ~f June 1981, EXHtBIT 18: Classified By Sex and Crime Type •••••••••• ~ ••••••••••• ~ ••••• 23 :,.",. Algorithm That Produces The Reports For the Analysis EXHIBIT 7: , Of Historic~l Trends & Relationships ••••••••••••• ~ •••••••••• 61 /' The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(BASEP~OP) I: EXHIBIT 19: The Forecast of the Basefrison Population •••••••••••••••••• 21f Sample of Data In The File WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(DOCHIST) •••••• ~ ••• 63 i, EXHIBIT 8. , EXH I BIT 29: New Admissions From the Court;~ • If •••••••••• ,.................. 28 The Program listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) •••••••••• : ••• 64 EXHI BIT 9. EXHIBIT 21: Example of Data From WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM):I: Ex. of~Report Produced By WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(HISTREPT) The Commitment Rates By Age and Sex For The,Forecast Period. 29 ......... 73 EXHIBIT 22: EXHIBIT 10. r Ex. of Report Produced by WYL.OF.PRI.LlB(HISTREPT) Example of Data From WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI):' .......... 75 JUdicial Decision To Imprison Proportions B? Age, EXHIBIT 23: ,'\ .~ Sex, and Crime Type ••••••••••••••••••••••• ~ ••••••••••••••••• 31 Ex. From The File \O/YL.OF.PRI,.DATA(RELEASES) ~ "',. ~ , ~ ................. 77 EXHIBIT 24: "'I' Ii II The Program Listing of WYL.OF.PRI.LIB(LOSPGM) •••••••••••••••• 78 EXH J BIT 2: 1 : The File Structure For the Prison Pop Forecast Computer Model 85 iii , iv . ,. " ;; ,jI I../' LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (CONT) Page EXHIB~~ ~~~·File Structure For Alternative Forecasts ••••••••••••• 86 o J EXHIBjbI2;~~ut Data File WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(JDI) •••••• " ............ 88 I I ACKNOWLEGEMENTS EXHIBITChanged 2:4. JDI Values For Proper t y Offenders ••••••••••••••••••• 88 I I f EXHIBITConviction 2:5. Rate Input Data File WYL.OF.PRI.DATA(COMM) •••••••• 94 The Technical documentation was primarily the work of Felix" D'Allesandro, u . r I EXHIBIT 2:6. Jack O'Connel I, and Jeffrey Tayman. Each contributed uniquely to the final 1/ Changed ConvictioQ Rates For Drug Offenders q ••••••••••••• " •• 95 C..~( , documentation of how the priSlon population forecast functions. This type iJ of detail reflects the thinking of the Governqr's Criminal Justice' Work' ·1 EXHIBITWYL.OF.PRI.SURVIVE 2:7. The Length of Stay Data Input
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