Malaysia July 29, 2021 Strategy Darkest before dawn – Shariah perspective by Ivy NG Lee Fang, CFA │ T: (60) 3 2261 9073 │ E:
[email protected] This report delineates our 2H21F equity strategy outlook from a Shariah perspective. The market was hit by a perfect storm in 1H21 with persistently high Covid-19 cases, multiple lockdowns, ESG concerns and political uncertainty. At the current run rate, we project Malaysia to be on track to inoculate around 70-80% of the population by 4Q21. We expect recovery stocks to see renewed interest in 4Q and the market to re-rate to our KLCI target of 1,604 pts, after an anticipated lacklustre 3Q21. We provide six trading themes for 2H21F in this report; our top Shariah sector picks are Islamic banking, healthcare, media, oil & gas, packaging, semiconductor, EMS, transport and utilities. Our top three Shariah stock picks are Gamuda, Telekom Malaysia and Unisem. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. Powered by the EFA AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. Platform Malaysia │ Strategy │ July 29, 2021 Content Page Key takeaways of our views on the outlook for 2H21F 3 Shariah-compliant investments 4 1H21 review 6 Outlook 17 Malaysian retail investors’ survey 27 ESG ratings from F4GBM index perspective 28 Key trading thematics 29 Risks 37 Market valuations 42 Economic outlook 44 Technical analysis 49 Top picks and sector ratings 51 2 Malaysia │ Strategy │ July 29, 2021 Key takeaways of our views on the outlook for 2H21F The market was hit by a perfect storm in 1H21 with persistently high Covid-19 cases, multiple lockdowns, ESG concerns and political uncertainty.