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The 10Th Federal Forecasters Conference Announcement The 11th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/2000) will be held on September 14, 2000 in Washington, DC More information will be available in the coming months. Ii The 10Oth Federal Forecasters Conference - 1999 r Papers and Proceedings and Selected Papers 19th International Symposium on Forecasting Edited by Debra E. Gerald National Center for Education Statistics U.S. Department of Education Office of Educational Research and Improvement The 10Oth Federal Forecasters Conference Papers and Proceedings Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, DC June 24, 1999 Hii Ferderal Forecasters Conference Organizing Committee Stuart Bernstein Bureau of Health Professions U. S. Department of Health and Human Services Howard N Fullerton, Jr. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Labor Debra E. Gerald National Center for Education Statistics U.S. Department of Education Karen S. Hamrick Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Laura Heaton Bureau of the Census U.S. Department of Commerce Stephen A. MacDonald Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Tammany J. Mulder Bureau of the Census U.S. Department of Commerce Jeffrey Osmint U.S. Geological Survey Norman C. Saunders Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Labor Kathleen Sorensen U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Clifford Woodruff Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Department of Commerce Peg Young Immigration and Naturalization Service U.S. Department of Justice V Federal Forecasters Conference Organizing Committee (Left to right) Norman C. Saunders, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Stuart Bernstein, Bureau of Health Professions; Debra E. Gerald, National Center for Education Statistics; Karen S. Hamrick, Economic Research Service; Howard N Fullerton, Jr., Bureau of Labor Statistics; Jeffrey Osmint, U.S. Geological Survey; and Kathleen Sorensen, Department of Veterans Affairs. (Not Pictured): Stephen A. MacDonald, Economic Research Service; Tammnany J. Mulder, Bureau of the Census: Clifford Woodruff, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and Peg Young, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Vii Foreword In the tradition of past meetings of federal forecasters, the 10th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/99) held on June 24, 1999, in Washington, DC, provided a forum where forecasters from different federal agencies and other organizations could meet and discuss various aspects of forecasting in the United States. The theme was "Forecasting In the New Millennium.' One hundred and seventy-seven forecasters attended the day-long conference. The program included opening remarks by Debra E. Gerald and welcoming remarks from Neal Rosenthal, Associate Commissioner of the Office of Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania delivered the keynote address. The address was followed by a panel presentation given by Anne B. W. Effland, historian/social science analyst, of the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Calvin Beads, Jr., computer specialist, of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, and Robert W. Tinney, economist, of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense. Stuart Bernstein of the Bureau of Health Professions and Stephen A. MacDonald of the Economic Research Service presented awards from the 1999 Federal Forecasters Forecasting Contest. Jeffrey 0smint of the U.S. Geological Survey presented awards for Best Papers from FFC/97. In the afternoon, ten concurrent sessions in two time slots were held featuring three panels and 20 papers presented by forecasters from the Federal Government, private sector, and academia. A variety of papers were presented dealing with topics related to agriculture, budget, the economy, health, labor, population, and forecasting techniques. These papers are included in these proceedings. Mnother product of the FFC/99 is the Federal Forecasters Directory 1999. In addition, selected papers from federal presenters at the 19th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF '99), held in Washington. DC from June 27-30, 1999, are also included in these proceedings. This symposium was sponsored by the International Institute of Forecasters under the direction of Peg Young, general chairperson, and Karen S. Hamrick, program chair. ix Acknowledgments Many individuals contributed to the success of the 10th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/99). First and foremost, without the support of the cosponsoring agencies and dedication of the Federal Forecasters Conference Organizing Committee, FFC/99 would not have been possible. Debra E. Gerald of the National Center for Education Statistics (NOES) served as chairperson and developed conference materials. Peg Young of the Inunigration and Naturalization Service, Debra Gerald of NCES, Karen Hamrick of the Economic Research Service (ERS), and Kathleen Sorensen of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs were instrumental in arranging for the keynote speaker and panelists for the morning session. Norman Saunders prepared the announcement and call for papers and provided conference materials. In addition, Norman Saunders served as the photographer for the day-long conference. Stuart Bernstein of Bureau of Health Professions organized and conducted the Federal Forecasters Forecasting Contest In addition to organizing the Federal Forecasters Forecasting Contest, Stephen M. MacDonald of ERS provided conference materials. Karen S. Hamrick of ERS served as program chair and organized the afternoon concurrent sessions. Tammany I. Mulder and Laura Heaton of the Bureau of the Census arranged for financial support of the conference. Jeffrey Osmint of U.S. Geological Survey provided conference materials and produced special awards for the forecasting contest and certificates of appreciation. Kathleen Sorensen of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs provided conference materials. Howard N Fullerton, Jr. of the Bureau of Labor Statistics secured conference facilities and handled logistics. Peg Young of the Department of Veterans Affairs provided conference materials. Also, recognition goes to Clifford Woodruff of the Bureau of Economic Analysis for his support of the Federal Forecasters Conference. A special appreciation goes to Peg Young and the International Institute of Forecasters for their support of this year's conference. A deep appreciation goes to Neale Baxter, a retiree from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for reviewing the papers presented at the Ninth Federal Forecasters Conference and selecting awards for the FFC197 Best Conference Papers. Many thanks go to Linda D. Felton and Patricia A. Saunders of the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture for directing the organization of conference materials into packets and staffing the registration desk. Certificates of Appreciation were presented to Linda Diane Felton and Patricia Saunders for their outstanding work on the conference over a number of years and making sure that the conferences ran smoothly. Last, special thanks go to all presenters, discussants, and attendees whose participation made FFC/99 a very successful conference. xi 1999 Federal Forecasters Forecasting Contest WINNER John Golmant Administrative Office of the United States Courts HONORABLE MENTION Terry Schau, Bureau of Labor Statistics W. Vance Grant, National Library of Education Peggy Podolak, U.S. Department of Energy Tancred Lidderdale, Energy Information Administration Betty W. Su, Bureau of Labor Statistics Tim Dowd, Joint Committee on Taxation Thomas D. Snyder, National Center for Education Statistics Patrick Walker, Administrative Office of the U. S. Courts Paul Campbell, Bureau of the Census Mirko Novakovic, Bureau of Labor Statistics CONSISTENTLY ACCURATE FORECASTS Thomas D. Snyder, National Center for Education Statistics Betty W. Su, Bureau of Labor Statistics International Symposium on Forecasting-i1999 Winner Charles K. ReCorr, Merrill Lynch Private Client Group Honorable Mention John Golmant, Administrative Office of the U. S. Courts Michele Hibon, INSEAD, Fontainbleau, France Contest Answers Dow-Jones Industrial Average 10596 Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar 120.56 Closing Spot Price for Gold $268.20 High Temperature in Paris, France 800 F Most Home Runs Hit by a Major League Baseball Player 20 Xiii 1997 Best Conference Paper WINNER "An Annual Model for Forecasting Corn Prices" Paul C. Westcott Economic Research Service HONORABLE MENTION "Revising the Producer Prices Paid by Farmers Forecasting System" David Torgerson Economic Research Service John Jinkins Economic Research Service "Projections of Elementary and Secondary Public Education Expenditures by State" William J. Hussar National Center for Education Statistics XV Contents Announcement ...................................... Inside.................Cover....Inieoe Federal Forecasters Conference Organizing Committee .......................................... v Foreword ................................................................................ i Acknowledgments ................................................................. n......x Federal Forecasters Forecasting Contest Awards ............................................. xiii Best Paper and Honorable Mention Awards..................................................xv MORNING SESSION Scenes m h Cnerne.............om........the..........Conference......................... 1.. Message from...........the.........Chairperson............................mte hireso ...... Keynote Address Procedures
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