Glasgow City Council Briefing Paper by Executive Director of Development and Regeneration Services Contact: Jan Freeke Phone: (0141) 287 8647 People and Households in Glasgow Current Estimates and Projected Changes 2010-2035 Demographic Change in Glasgow City and Neighbourhoods Date of Issue: 30 August 2012 PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING: Any Ordnance Survey mapping included within this Report is provided by Glasgow City Council under licence from the Ordnance Survey in order to fulfil its public function to make available Council-held public domain information. Persons viewing this mapping should contact Ordnance Survey Copyright for advice where they wish to licence Ordnance Survey mapping/map data for their own use. The OS web site can be found at <http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk> " If accessing this Report via the Internet, please note that any mapping is for illustrative purposes only and is not true to any marked scale 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 On 19th April 2012, the Executive Director of Development and Regeneration Services published a briefing paper on the results, for Glasgow, of the 2010-base population projections prepared by National Records of Scotland (NRS). The paper gave also the main results of the household projections, prepared by Council staff, based on the NRS population projections. 1.2 On 14th June 2012 NRS published a set of sub-national household projections, based on the same 2010-base population projections. There are some differences in the results of the two household projections (NRS projections and GCC variant). These differences will be briefly discussed in a later section of this paper. Unless stated otherwise, the household projection results presented in this paper are those of the GCC variant projections. 1.3 The briefing paper indicated that further work was on-going on a demographic change paper, which will give an overview of recent demographic change at City-wide level and for areas within the City. This paper gives such an overview, with a particular focus on changes in 2001-2010. For areas within the City, the paper uses the City’s 56 neighbourhoods (see Appendix - Table A1). 1.4 Although the main focus is on changes between 2001 and 2010, there are comparisons with changes in the years before 2001. For changes in future years, use is made of the NRS population projections and the GCC variant household projections, as described in the briefing paper of 19th April 2012, referred to above. 1.5 The period 2001 to 2010 covers 9 years, i.e. almost a decade. It was considered important to establish whether there are any differences between patterns of change for the earlier part (2001-2006) and the later part of that period (2006-2010). This paper addresses that issue with regard to changes in the total population and the total dwelling stock by neighbourhood within the City. 1.6 NRS has prepared a main, or principal, population projection. To reflect the uncertainty in projecting the future, NRS has also identified several scenarios. The main area of uncertainty is future net migration. NRS has identified a low migration and a high migration scenario. Where appropriate, the results for these two scenarios are compared with the results of the NRS principal projection. 1.7 It should be noted that the results of the 2011 Census for Scotland have not yet been released. The estimates in this paper, and the projections based on these estimates, are likely to be revised once the 2011 Census results are published in late 2012 and 2013. 2 2. TOTAL POPULATION GLASGOW CITY – PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE 2.1 Graph 2.1 shows that, between 1991 and 2001, there was a steady decline in Glasgow’s population: from 629,000 in 1991 to 579,000 in 2001. This means an average decline of 5,000 per year. Glasgow’s population stabilised up until the middle of the last decade and has grown thereafter to 593,000 by 2010. Glasgow‘s population is projected to continue to grow, at a rate of 2,700 per year, to 660,000 by 2035 (NRS principal projection). Graph 2.1 - Estimated and projected population in Glasgow 1991-2035 720000 700000 estimated projected 680000 660000 estimate principal projection 640000 low migration population high migration 620000 600000 580000 560000 1 5 9 1 3 5 15 17 19 21 23 27 005 007 009 011 013 199 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 202 20 202 203 203 203 year 2.2 For the period beyond 2010, Graph 2.1 gives also the projected population levels for the NRS high migration and low migration scenarios. The high migration scenario shows significant growth to a population of 699,000 in 2035, which means an average growth of 4,200 per year. The low migration scenario shows more moderate growth to a population of 620,000 in 2035, which means an average growth of 1,100 per year. GLASGOW CITY – COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE 2.3 It was noted already that, between 1991 and 2001, there were annual population losses of around 5,000 per year. These population losses were mainly due to sizeable net migration losses, but were also due to fewer births than deaths (=natural change). In 2001 to 2010, both natural change and net migration have improved significantly. 2.4 Graph 2.2 shows the estimated and projected number of births and deaths in Glasgow. Natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) was negative during most of the last two decades, 3 but has turned positive since 2007. Na significant driver of po less so in the longer term, as an number of deaths. 10000 pulation growth in the s 9000 8000 Graph 2.2 - Estimated and projected births and deaths in Glasgow 1991-2035 7000 6000 (projected values from the NRS 2010-base principal projection) 5000 tural change is projected to be a ageing population l births4000 and deaths 3000 2000 hort and medium term, but 1000 es tim a 0 t 2.5 Graph 2.3 shows the estimated and pr ed 1991/92 eads to a higher 1993/94 Glasgow. In the last two1995 /decades,96 Gl considerably. For the projection1997/98 peri variant migration assumptions. 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 6000 2009/10 projected 1 2 4000 201 /1 Graph 2.3 - Estimated and projected net migration into/out of Glasgow 1991-20352013/14 2000 year 2015/16 2017/18 estimated projected 0 2019/20 -2000 asgow’s net migration202 has1/22 improved net migration od the graphojected shows net the migration principal into/out and of -4000 2023/24 2025/26 births -6000 deaths 2027/28 -8000 2029/30 2031/32 -10000 2033/34 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 year 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 2021/22 estimate 2023/24 principal projection low migration 4 2025/26 high migration 2027/28 2029/30 2031/32 2033/34 2.6 In the medium to longer term, the NRS principal projection assumes a migration gain of 1,650 per year. This compares with a net migration of 300 per year for the low migration scenario and a net migration of 2,950 per year for the high migration scenario. 2.7 Although, in recent years, Glasgow has had a positive overall net migration position, the City has continued to lose population to the rest of the Conurbation (around 2,500 per year, see Table 2.1). Overseas migration has more than compensated for this loss. Table 2.1 - Net Migration into/out of Glasgow City by Component 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 Rest Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area -2,889 -2,473 -2,519 Rest of Scotland 710 952 717 Rest UK 879 23 -501 Asylum seekers 1,000 1,300 700 Rest Overseas 2,111 3,777 4,804 Total 1,811 3,579 3,201 Source: estimates NRS - CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED 2.8 The impact of the NASS asylum seeker contract on Glasgow’s net migration has reduced in recent years. In 2001, there were 4,372 asylum seekers in Glasgow. This number rose to 6,037 asylum seekers in 2003. After 2007 the number fell considerably, to 2,811 in 2010. 2.9 Although the overall annual net migration gain for the City was around 2,500 in recent years, there have been continued migration losses for children (families), middle-aged and elderly (see Table 2.2). The sizeable net inflow of adults aged 15 to 29 has more than compensated for these migration losses. The NRS population projections for Glasgow City (both principal projection and low/high migration scenarios) assume that this pattern will continue. Table 2.2 - Estimated and Projected Annual Net Migration into/out of Glasgow by Age NRS projection age-band estimate estimate low migration principal high migration 2001-2006 2006-2010 2016-2035 2016-2035 2016-2035 0 to 14 -1,434 -775 -929 -795 -661 15 to 29 5,046 5,153 3,053 3,709 4,363 30 to 64 -1,745 -1,442 -1,531 -1,016 -531 65+ -719 -401 -293 -248 -221 total 1,148 2,535 300 1,650 2,950 Source: estimates/projections NRS - CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED 5 CITY NEIGHBOURHOODS - POPULATION CHANGE 2.10 Map 2.1 shows that the highest annual population rises have been in South Nitshill/Darnley (+3.8%), City Centre (+3.4%), Yorkhill/Anderston (+3.0%), Calton (+2.0%), Robroyston (+2.2%), Pollok (+1.6%), Govanhill (+1.5%), Greater Gorbals (+1.4%) and Shawlands (+1.3%).