Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Among Farmers in the Gujrat and Jhelum Districts, Pakistan

Home , Gujrat District, Jhelum District, Kunjah

Department of Physical Geography

Climate change adaptation strategies among farmers in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts, Pakistan

Sanna Saleemi

Master’s thesis GA 32 Geography, 45 Credits 2016

Preface

This Master’s thesis is Sanna Saleemi’s degree project in Geography at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University. The Master’s thesis comprises 45 credits (one and a half term of full-time studies).

Supervisor has been Håkan Berg at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University. Examiner has been Stefano Manzoni at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University.

The author is responsible for the contents of this thesis.

Stockholm, 13 June 2016

Steffen Holzkämper Director of studies

Abstract

Climate change imposes major threats for farming communities in South Asia as increased temperatures and changes in precipitation impact yields. Local farmers in Pakistan are facing similar challenges and the country has already been highly affected by climate change. Further, local knowledge is increasingly being recognized as an important complement to quantitative climate data. There is a need to go beyond the quantitative results in climate change research, and ground proof these data by including local experiences. Many farmers around the world are experiencing climate change and are responding to these with various adaptation strategies. This study examines climate change in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts in the Punjab province in Pakistan, how local farmers perceive climate change and what adaptation strategies local farmers have implemented. The study also intends to examine the main constraints to adaptation by incorporating expert views to analyze issues and gaps in the system. The results show increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in the study region between 1975-2014. Farmer surveys indicate that a majority of the farmers perceive these changes and have applied different adaptation strategies as a response. These strategies mainly consist of: changing planting/sowing time and increased irrigation using groundwater. A third form of response to smaller yields and decreased income was alternative off- farm jobs, as an additional income. Expert interviews reveal contradictions of implementation of climate change adaptation policies along with contrasting responses to the farmers regarding institutional efforts to support the local farmers. These results show how lack of institutional support is hindering effective, successful and long-term adaptation for these farming communities.

Table of Contents 1. Introduction ...... 5 2. Objectives ...... 7 3. Methodology ...... 7 3.1 Study area ...... 8 3.2 Sampling and data collection ...... 9 3.2.1 Climate data ...... 9 3.2.2 Questionnaires ...... 10 3.2.3 Semi- structured interviews ...... 10 4. Results ...... 12 4.1 Climate data ...... 12 4.1.1 Temperature changes...... 12 4.1.2 Precipitation changes ...... 14 4.2 Farmer surveys ...... 15 4.2.1 Kunjah- irrigated region ...... 15 4.2.1.1 Perceived climate changes...... 15 4.2.1.2 Implications of perceived climate changes ...... 18 4.2.1.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change...... 20 4.2.2 Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana- Rain fed region ...... 21 4.2.2.1 Perceived climate change ...... 21 4.2.2.2 Implications of perceived climate changes ...... 24 4.2.2.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change...... 26 5. Expert interviews ...... 27 5.1 Global Impact Studies Center (GCISC) ...... 27 5.2 Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) ...... 27 5.3 International Water Management Institute (IWMI) ...... 28 5.4 Mangla dam ...... 29 5.5 Ministry of Water and Power...... 29 5.6 Irrigation Department Punjab ...... 29 6. Discussion ...... 30 6.1 Climate change in Gujrat and Jhelum ...... 30 6.2 Famers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation ...... 31 6.3 Similarities and differences between the study areas ...... 33 6.3.1 Differences ...... 33 6.3.2 Similarities ...... 34 6.4 Experts’ comments ...... 35 6.5 Limitations ...... 36 7. Conclusion ...... 37 References ...... 39 Appendix ...... 43

1. Introduction

Since the 1950’s a global warming trend has been observed caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions due to anthropogenic activities. In many regions climate change has not only caused increased temperatures but also had major impacts on precipitation patterns and glacier melt, affecting water availability (IPCC, 2013). Further the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that climate change has had more negative impacts on crop yields than positive (IPCC, 2014). As agricultural practices primarily depend on the climatic conditions, changes in: temperature, precipitation and climatic extremes could have major implications for farmers. South Asia’s heavy economic dependence on agriculture makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the local farmers most dependent on the climate for their livelihoods face the most severe challenges (IFAD, 2010; Vermeulen et al., 2012). Among the South Asian countries Pakistan is one of the most affected by climate change as it has been hit hard by both droughts and severe flooding events the past 20 years (Kreft et al., 2016). Pakistan also has an agro-based economy highly dependent on its agricultural production (Iqbal et al., 2009a). According to IPCC the number of cold days and nights have decreased, while the number of warm days and nights have increased globally (IPCC, 2013), and such temperature changes have been noted to have negative impacts for Pakistan’s agricultural productivity (Iqbal et al., 2016).

The Punjab province is the most populated province in Pakistan and all five tributary rivers (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) to the Indus River pass through the region. The province is also home to one of the largest irrigation systems in the world; therefore Punjab has an extensive agriculture with several different agricultural products (FAO, 2014). Two dams mainly regulate this irrigation system; the Tarbela and the Mangla dam, where the Tarbela is predominantly fed by glacier melt water and the Mangla by the seasonal monsoon (Immerzeel et al., 2010; Laghari et al., 2012). The Jhelum River is the second largest tributary to the Indus and the upper parts of its basin drains into the Mangla dam (Mahmood et al., 2015). The northern areas of the Punjab comprise of both rain- fed and irrigated agriculture. Gujrat is one of the most fertile districts in the province with about 77 % of its total land area cultivated, and a majority of this area is irrigated by the irrigation system through canals (66, 5 %) (FAO, 2014). However its neighboring district to the west, Jhelum district, has most of its cultivated land rain- fed. The cultivated area makes up 46,7 % of the total district, of which 38,2 % is rain- fed (ibid). Due to the river Jhelum, which runs through the Jhelum district the soils adjoining the river are generally fertile and good for agriculture (ibid). As the farmers are the primary stakeholders in Pakistan’s agriculture, climate change imposes a major threat to their livelihoods (Abid et al., 2015). Besides an intensive agriculture the province has also developed industries and several hydropower projects to provide its growing population with energy. Hence, there are many different stakeholders using the surface waters in different ways in the Punjab province. However according to models from studies of future projections from the Jhelum basin, temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns in the area change as a result of climate change (Mahmood & Babel, 2014; Mahmood et al., 2015). Studies have also shown how these future climate changes will impact water availability and food production in the area negatively (Zhu et al., 2013).

Adger et al., (2005) argues that adaptation is required to cope with the climate change impacts, which have already occurred and will have greater effects in the future. According to the IPCC (2014) adaptation is: “ The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural system, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects” (IPCC, 2014). Climatic change is nothing new; societies and individuals have adjusted their behavior to live with such changes before. However current predictions of future climate change conditions have triggered these adaptation responses. These adaptation measures can be witnessed at many levels of society: individual, organization or government level (Adger et al., 2005). However, an adaptation strategy implemented at one level might not be beneficial at all levels, nor for all stakeholders within the same level, this is considered to be maladaptation. This kind of adaptation is not sustainable for the region as a whole. In other words maladaptation is considered to be actions towards adaptation that lead to increasing risks and vulnerability to other members or parts of society (Noble et al., 2014). Hence, it has been argued for the need to observe adaptation at different levels of society in the same way climate change has been observed and studied (Adger et al., 2005). Zhu et al., (2013) presents adaptation strategies to climate change impacts in the Indus basin, these are mainly: more research on agriculture, increased water use efficiency within the agricultural sector and more reservoirs for water storage. However it is also highlighted that water storage cannot solely improve crop production in the region.

Scientific measurements and data collection are the bases of our understanding of climate change and global warming. However the importance of incorporating local knowledge into national adaptation plans is getting increasingly recognized as an important addition to scientific knowledge (Adger et al., 2009; Chanza & De Wit, 2016; FAO, 2009; Mercer et al., 2009; Nyong et al., 2007; Orlove et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014; Riedling & Berks, 2001). For instance a study of local farmers of the Sahel desert has shown how the local population have adapted to the increased occurrence of droughts. These farmers have accumulated knowledge about the climatic conditions over several decades, however this knowledge is not being transferred into national adaptation policies (Nyong et al., 2007). IPCC also points out that it is of importance for policymakers to incorporate local and indigenous knowledge to develop effective adaptation strategies that are both cost-effective and sustainable (IPCC, 2014). Further Pakistan is one of the countries where the lack of studies on local knowledge has been highlighted, compared to the other Indo- Gagnetic countries (CGIAR, 2011).

2. Objectives

The above section presents the settings for this study addressing climate change and adaptation strategies of local farmers in Pakistan. It has been argued that; the region is severely affected by climate change, that farmers are most affected by this change and the importance to adapt. The purpose of this study is to analyze the local climate change of three villages located in Jhelum and Gujrat district, and to understand how local farmers are experiencing it. Further the study aims to identify which adaptation strategies local farmers have adopted, and how the villages differ regarding experiences and implemented strategies. Lastly experts’ insights where incorporated to deeper analyze issues of climate change and adaptation in the region. More specifically this study intends to investigate these five questions:

 How can climate change be observed in Gujrat and Jhelum districts between 1975- 2014?

 How are local farmers experiencing climate change and how has it impacted their livelihoods?

 What kind of adaptation strategies have the farmers adopted?

 How do the perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies differ between the farmers with irrigated fields (Gujrat) and the farmers with rain- fed fields (Jhelum)?

 What are the main constraints farmers are facing regarding climate change adaptation?

3. Methodology

This study has an interdisciplinary character regarding methodology where both quantitative climate data has been obtained along with semi- quantitative data from surveys, and lastly qualitative data from conducted interviews. To answer the research questions of this study meteorological data was obtained to analyze local climate change. Furthermore, surveys with local farmers were conducted along with expert interviews at organizations and governmental institutions. This provided the opportunity to compare the quantitative climate data with actual experiences of the farmers and by incorporating expert interviews the issues could be understood and analyzed from an additional perspective.

3.1 Study area

This study was conducted in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts located in the northern parts of the Punjab province in Pakistan (Figure 1). All major rivers originating from the Himalayas pass through the area, which is also home to one of the worlds largest irrigation systems (Yu et al., 2013, p. 17). This irrigation system enables the province to have the most cultivated land in the country with over 3000 irrigated channels. These channels irrigate almost 50 % of the total land area of the province, while around 8 % of the area consists of rain- fed fields (FAO, 2014). Pakistan can be divided into five different climatic zones, where the Punjab province falls into the category of sub-mountainous/lowland area. The region receives a majority of its rainfall during the summer monsoon, which peaks between July- September. Especially the northern part of the Punjab is under strong influence of the monsoon (Salma et al., 2012). Further, cold winters and hot summers characterize the lowland climate with an annual temperature average between 18-24 ℃ and annual rainfall between 906- 1195 mm. Within the Köppen classification the region of this study falls into BShw, which translates into a semi-arid Steppe climate with hot summers and dry winters (Sarfaraz et al., 2014).

Figure 1. Map showing location of study sites in Jhelum and Gujrat district (Esri, 2014).

Prior to data collection in the field the study regions were selected by analyzing a land cover atlas over the Punjab to identify suitable regions (FAO, 2014). From the land cover atlas three villages where identified and chosen as suitable locations for this study. Two of these where located in the floodplain zone in the Jhelum district (Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana) and the third in the neighbor district Gujrat (Kunjah) as shown in Figure 1. The agricultural fields in the villages in Jhelum are rain-fed while the village in Gujrat has irrigated fields, allowing a comparison between the results from farmers using different agricultural practices to be

8 made. The two floodplain villages in Jhelum district are located just downstream of the Mangla dam, which is the only dam regulating and diverting the river Jhelums waters. Kunjah receives all its irrigation water through canals that originate from the Jhelum River.

Chan Baila is the smallest of the three villages and is located in the floodplain surrounded by the Jhelum River. The river is filled with water mainly during the flood season or when the Mangla dam releases water, in other cases the river is dry. This village is also characterized by severe flooding events and also is the poorest of all three. Even though Kiri Afghana is also located in the floodplain and this village also has experienced flooding events the farmers of this village had a better economy, and therefore better resources such as tube wells and boats during flooding season to pass through the river. Lastly Kunjah was the village mostly dependent on the irrigation system for its water resources and due to its location not effected by flooding. Also these farmers had the financial resources to pump groundwater for irrigation of their fields themselves.

3.2 Sampling and data collection

The sampling and data collection was divided into three parts for this study, which consist of different methodologies. First of all raw data was analyzed to understand how climate change is affecting this particular region. Secondly interviews in the form of questionnaires were conducted with farmers from the three villages, and lastly experts where interviewed with a semi- structured model. All three approaches are presented in more detail below:

3.2.1 Climate data

To understand the local climate changes in the study area raw data was obtained from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for the last 40 years. Data of precipitation and temperature between 1975-2014 was analyzed and compared with the farmers’ perceptions. To analyze the gathered data and calculate the statistical significance of the trends a statistical computer program (STATA 12) was used in close collaboration with a statistician. The data was collected from Jhelum meteorological station, as it is located closest to all three villages: nearest Kiri Afghana (7 km) and Chan Baila (13 km) and furthest from Kunjah (45 km).

Data of monthly and annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures were analyzed along with average precipitation amount. The data is presented in graphs to show statistical trends together with the calculated P-values in order to estimate the statistical significance of these trends. A P-value allows us to determine whether a (positive or negative) linear relationship is present and if it is statistically significant. This provides more information than solely analyzing R2- values, which only indicate how well the values fit in a line in average (Townend, 2002). A P-value ≤ 0,05 shows a significant correlation between the two types of measurement (ibid). For these data a 95 % confidence interval was used to estimate the statistical significance, which indicates that the null hypothesis is rejected with 95 % confidence and the null hypothesis is that no trend occurs.

3.2.2 Questionnaires

The primary data for this study consists of questionnaires (for details see Appendix) conducted with local farmers from the three villages, which were collected during the month of January 2016. However, two of the villages’ data was put together because of the similarity in character in region and results, these where the two villages in the floodplain (Chan Baila and Kiri Afghana). Thereby a total of 15 farmers in the floodplain villages and 7 farmers in the irrigated region were interviewed (Table 1). The farmers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to collect semi- quantitative data. However farmers where also allowed expressing themselves more freely in some open ended questions, which contributed with data of a more qualitative character. The questionnaire was developed based on similar studies along with commonly shared research principals (Abid et al., 2015; Balama et al., 2013; Bryman, 2012; Clifford et al., 2010; Uddin et al., 2014). Myself conducted all the farmer interviews in the local language and dialect Urdu/ Punjabi, which allowed for further reflections to be made regarding how the participants responded and minimized mistakes that could occur with an intermediate.

3.2.3 Semi- structured interviews

Lastly expert interviews were conducted to add further dimension to this study. By adding expert opinions and understandings of climate change and adaptation strategies, gaps of interest and knowledge could be identified. Experts from different institutes and organizations with insights on the issue where chosen and contacted prior arriving to Pakistan. Using a semi-structured interview model eight experts at six different departments were interviewed. The interviews were recorded and transcribed to be able to analyze the main points, views and patterns of the experts. Also in this case I conducted the interviews in the local language Urdu/ Punjabi, which minimized the risks of mistakes regarding interpretations that could have occurred with a translator.

Table 1. Characteristics of respondents in the villages of Jhelum and Gujrat district.

Chan Baila Kiri Afghana Kunjah (Jhelum district) (Jhelum district) (Gujrat district) Nr. Of respondents 10 5 7 Frequency (%) Age group: 20-30 10 31-40 10 20 43 41-50 50 80 14 51-60 20 14 61 and above 10 29

Sex: Male 60 100 100 Female 40

Level of education: None 40 14 Primary 60 100 57 Secondary 29 Post-secondary

Farm land size (Acer): 0-5 90 60 43 6-10 10 40 29 10 and above 29

Crops grown: Wheat Wheat, Millet, Wheat, rice, Sorghum sugarcane

4. Results

4.1 Climate data

The climate data collected from Jhelums meteorological station shows a change in both temperature and precipitation over the last 40 years. Regarding temperatures both minimum and maximum temperatures are showing significant positive trends over the years with increasing temperatures, and the annual precipitation amount is showing a decreasing trend in the area. Three different sets of climate data are presented in the graphs below: mean minimum temperature; mean maximum temperature and annual precipitation.

4.1.1 Temperature changes

The annual mean temperatures recorded at the meteorological station shows a general trend towards warmer temperatures (Figure 2 & 3). Between 1975- 2014 the annual mean minimum temperature has increased by 0,03 ℃ per year (Figure 2). The P-value (<0,001) for this linear trend shows that there is a significant positive correlation between years and increasing mean minimum temperatures.

Annual mean minimum temp. 19

18,5

18 y = 0,0263x - 35,533

C) R² = 0,29 o

17,5 annual mean

17 Linjär (annual mean)

Temperature ( Temperature 16,5

15,5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year

Figure 2. Graph showing the annual mean minimum temperatures observed between 1975- 2014 with linear equation and trend line displayed. P-value: < 0,001.

The annual mean maximum temperature in Jhelum did not initially show a statistically significant trend as the P- value was 0,07, and P > 0,05 indicate no significant correlations. However there are some points in the data set that differ more then others, such as the mean annual value for 1997 (Figure 3). During 1997-1998 the largest El Nino event in history took place. This extreme event impacted the global climate and caused several unusual climate events around the world. One such climate event was extreme drought in Indonesia, which caused widespread fires. The secondary effect associated to this El Niño event where hence less incoming solar radiation due to a large amount of haze created by the Indonesian fires (Byron & Shepard, 1998; The Diplomat, 2015; NOAA). This could thereby explain lower temperature over Jhelum during 1997, and as this could be seen as an unusual event that deviates from normal this data point was removed. By removing the 1997 data point the P- value changed from 0,07 to 0,04, which then gives a statistically significant trend and shows an average increase by 0,02℃ per year. Other studies on climate change from the region have also explained abrupt changes in data by applying years of La Nina events to understand these more rare occasions (Jahangir et al., 2016).

Annual mean maximum temp. 32

31,5 y = 0,0178x - 4,9942 R² = 0,0835

31 Annual mean

C) o 30,5 Linjär (Annual mean) 30

Temperature ( Temperature 29,5

29 1997

28,5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year

Figure 3. Graph showing the annual mean maximum temperatures observed between 1975- 2014 with linear equation and trend line displayed. P-value: 0,071; P-value with removed data point (1997): 0,040.

4.1.2 Precipitation changes

The annual average precipitation per year shows an overall decreasing trend between 1975- 2014, in average decreasing by 5,7 mm each year (Figure 4). The P-value for this graph is 0,03 and thereby shows a statistically significant trend.

Annual precipitation 1600

1400 y = -5,7257x + 12326 1200

) R² = 0,1129 1000 "Annual 800 precipitation"

600 Linjär ("Annual precipitation") Precipitation (mm Precipitation 400

200

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year

Figure 4. Graph showing annual amount of precipitation between 1975-2014 with linear equation and trend line displayed. P-value: 0,034.

4.2 Farmer surveys

4.2.1 Kunjah- irrigated region

The farmer surveys from Kunjah showed that a majority of the interviewed farmers are both experiencing climate change in different forms and adapting to this change. However the farmers responses on how climate is changing are somewhat divided in this area. Further all of the farmers also mentioned the need for support to keep up their farming practices with the changing climate. The different parts of the questionnaire treating the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, what implications this change has had and how they have adapted are presented in three parts below.

4.2.1.1 Perceived climate changes

The results from the first part of the questionnaire addressing climate change conducted in Kunjah revealed that 86 % of the farmers have experienced some kind of climatic change over their lifetime. Although a majority of the farmers have experienced a change in climate, their perceptions regarding in what way differ.

Regarding experiences in changes in temperature and precipitation the perceptions among the interviewed farmers differ. According to 57 % of the farmers the precipitation in the region had decreased, however the opposite was expressed by 43 % who felt it had increased. The perceptions regarding temperature are also somewhat scattered as 57 % of the farmers have felt an increase, 28 % a decrease and 14 % responded that there has been no change (Figure 5). Similarly the perceptions regarding unpredictable rainfall and changes in monsoon are somewhat differing. Unpredictable rainfall was experienced to have increased by 43 %, while another 43 % felt there has been no change in this climatic event. However 57 % of the farmers agreed that the monsoon had decreased in length and intensity, 28 % responded it had not changed and 14 % felt it had decreased (Figure 6).

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events 100 Precipitation 90 80 Temperature 70 60 50 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased increased no change decresed highly decreased Preceptions

Figure 5. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in precipitation and temperature.

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events 100 Unpredicdeble 90 rainfall 80 Changes in 70 monsoon 60 50 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased increased no change decresed highly decreased Preceptions

Figure 6. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in unpredictable rainfall and monsoon.

Regarding the duration of the summer and winter seasons, the responses from the interviewed farmers were the most coherent of all the options of climatic events brought up in the questionnaire. A total of 83 % indicated a decrease/highly decrease in winter season and 83 % indicated an increase/highly increase in summer season (Figure 7). According to the farmers this change was both in the intensity and length of the season. Making seasonal changes the climatic event where most interviewee shared the same experience.

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

100 duration 90 summer season 80 70 duration winter 60 season 50 40 30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased increased no change decresed highly decreased Preceptions

Figure 7. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in duration of summer and winter season shown in percent

4.2.1.2 Implications of perceived climate changes

The results from the second part of the questionnaire, addressing implications of climate change revealed that most of the farmers (71 %) felt they had been negatively affected by climate change (Figure 8). All of the interviewed farmers of Kunjah experienced that water availability has decreased and that weeds and insects have increased in their fields (Figure 9). In contrast the responses for annual yields and income differed more, where 43 % of the farmers felt that annual yields and incomes had increased while 57 % felt the income had decreased. However all of the respondents agreed that expenses in daily life had increased (Figure 10).

100 90 80 70 60 50 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Very positively Positively No effect Negativily Very negatively How have these changes affected your livelihood and well-being?

Figure 8. Proportion of farmers’ responses on how climate change has had impacts on their daily lives

The local farmers from Kunjah, who rely on the irrigation system as their main source of water for their agriculture, also expressed concerns regarding the canal water. The farmers explained how the water availability had decreased over the years and how this resulted in an increased use of groundwater for irrigation (Figure 9 & Table 2):

“We need to compensate the water from the canals with groundwater, because we only get water through the canals 6 months. We have built tube wells ourselves, but the government comes and checks and in some cases shuts them down” Male 35-year old farmer Kunjah.

Precived implications in daily life 100 90 80 70 Water availability 60 Weeds & insects 50 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Increased No change Decreased Don't know Preceptions

Figure 9. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in weeds & insects together with water availability shown in percent

Precived implications in daily life 100 90 80 70 Annual yields (wheat) 60 Income from farming 50 40 Expenses daily life

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Increased No change Decreased Don't know Preceptions

Figure 10. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in annual yields, income from farming and expenses in daily life.

4.2.1.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change

The last part of the questionnaire addresses what kind of adaptation strategies the farmers have adopted in response to these climatic changes and impacts on their livelihoods. All of the interviewed farmers of Kunjah responded that they had adapted to the changes experienced in their daily lives. Further the farmers reflected on what kind of strategies they had used to adapt to the situation, which showed that most of the respondents had increased irrigation on their fields due to less water availability. The second most important adaptation strategy was change in planting and sowing time, however some also indicated they had looked for alternative jobs besides farming to make a living (Table 2). All of the respondents felt positive towards the possibility of receiving support to enhance their farming practices in a changing climate. However, 100 % also responded that no organizations or governmental institutions had approached them to offer any kind of (technical, financial, educational) support to sustain their adaptation practices or to improve farming practices. Some farmers also indicated they had approached the local agriculture department regarding support in some matters, but without any success.

Table 2. Adaptation strategies among seven farmers in Kunjah.

Strategies % Of farmers indicating that they have responded to negatively affected livelihoods Increased use of 86 % irrigation Finding off farm 28% job Technological 14 % fixes Other: Changing 43 % planting time

4.2.2 Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana- Rain fed region

Farmer interviews were also conducted in two villages along the floodplain zones of the River Jhelum in the Jhelum district, where the farmers have rain- fed agriculture unlike the farmers from Kunjah. All of the farmers from this region had experienced climate change. A majority furthermore agreed on how the climate had changed regarding to temperature and precipitation in the region. Further all of the interviewed farmers expressed they had adapted to the changing climate. Down below three different sections of the questionnaires with the farmers are presented, similarly to the above section with results from Kunjah.

4.2.2.1 Perceived climate change

The first part of the questionnaire regarding the experienced climate change showed that all the interviewed farmers from the area agreed that they have experienced an overall change in the climate during their lifetime. A majority (73 %) of these farmers expressed this change as an increasing temperature and a total of 87 % perceived decreasing precipitation in the region (Figure 11). This was expressed as a big concern from some farmers:

“We need rain for our crops, change in temperature and rainfall will effect our well- being” Male 38- year old farmer, Kiri Afghana.

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events 100

90 Precipitation 80 Temperature 70 60 50 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased no change decresed highly increased decreased Preceptions

Figure 11. Proportion responses of perceived changes in precipitation and temperature shown in percent.

Most farmers (73 %) also perceive that flooding events have highly increased (Figure 12), which in this specific region has been a major cause for decreasing the area of farmland as floods have damaged much of the farmer’s fields. However the farmers of Kunjah did never experience flooding events, because of the geographical location of the village and the regulation of the water flow in the canal system. The farmers living in the floodplain villages expressed several concerns and thoughts regarding the flooding events:

“Our parents and grandparents did not witness any flooding events except one in 1929, but we are witnessing more frequent intense flooding events the last 30 years. When the floods come now they are too strong to swim through” Male 47- year old farmer Kiri Afghana

“The floodwater brings nutrients to the ground and makes our soils fertile” Male 45- year old farmer Kiri Afghana

“The most urgent need in our village is to build bridges, so we could cross the water during flooding and boats to use as transportation” Male 65-year old famer Chan Baila

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

100 90 80 70 Occurance flood 60 Occurance drought 50 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased no change decresed highly increased decreased Preceptions

Figure 12. Proportion responses of perceived changes in flooding and drought occurrence shown in percent.

As these farmers are dependent on rainwater for their crops a majority had also reflected on changing rain patterns, which had resulted in much more unpredictable rains (73%) (Figure 13). Another common perception among the respondents on perceived climate changes where warmer and shorter winters and hotter and longer summers. A total of 73 % responded that the duration of the summer season had increased and 60 % responded winter season had decreased (Figure 14).

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

100 90 80 Unpredicdeble 70 rainfall 60 50 Changes in monsoon 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased no change decresed highly increased decreased Preceptions

Figure 13. Proportion responses of perceived changes in unpredictable rainfall and monsoon shown in percent.

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events 100 90 80 duration summer 70 season 60 duration winter 50 season 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Highly increased no change decresed highly increased decreased Preceptions

Figure 14. Proportion responses of perceived changes in duration of summer and winter season shown in percent

4.2.2.2 Implications of perceived climate changes

For the second part of the questionnaire about 85 % of the interviewed farmers indicated that these climate changes had impacted their livelihoods and well being in a very negative way (Figure 15).

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Very Positively No effect Negativily Very positively negatively

How have these changes affected your livelihood and well-being?

Figure 15. Proportion of farmers indicating how climate change has had impacts on their daily lives

More specifically the farmers expressed these impacts to be increased weeds and insects in their fields (93 %) along with decreased water availability (67 %) (Figure 16). This has lead to smaller yields and less income from farming. Not only did a majority of the farmers’ feel that their income from farming had decreased (86 %) but also that other expenses in their daily lives had increased (93 %) (Figure 17).

Precived implications in daily life 100 90 80 70 60 Water availability 50 Weeds & insects 40

30 Respondents Respondents (%) 20 10 0 Increased No change Decreased Don't know Preceptions

Figure 16. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in weeds & insects together with water availability shown in percent.

Precived implications in daily life 100 90 Annual yields (wheat) 80 70 Income from farming 60 Expenses in daily life 50 40

Respondents Respondents (%) 30 20 10 0 Increased No change Decreased Don't know Preceptions

Figure 17. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in annual yields, income from farming and expenses in daily life.

4.2.2.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change

For the third and final part of the questionnaire all the respondents interviewed in Chan Baila and Kiri Afghana expressed they had adapted to experienced changes in one-way or another. The most common adaptation strategy among the farmers was finding off farm jobs to compensate for the low farming income. Other adaptation strategies regarded change in planting and cropping time and increased irrigation. Among these farmers there was also 7 % who had developed their own biogas production as an effort to decrease daily expenses (Table 3). None of the farmers from these villages had received any support from any organization or governmental institution regarding sustaining any form of adaptation strategies at the farm. Nevertheless all of the interviewed farmers in this area indicated the need of support (technical, financial, educational) regarding adaptation strategies and farming practices.

Table 3. Adaptation strategies among 15 farmers in the floodplain villages of Jhelum.

Strategies % Of farmers indicating that they have responded to negatively affected livelihoods Increased use of 27 % irrigation Integrated 7% farming system Finding off farm 80 % job Technological 13 % fixes Other: Changing 33 % planting time

5. Expert interviews

The last part of the results for this study consists of expert interviews at five different governmental institutions and one non- governmental international organization. All the experts shared their views and knowledge regarding climate change and adaptation strategies in the region. A majority of these stakeholders raised concerns regarding future impacts of climate change in the region and highlighted the need to increase adaptation. In the sections below the main views and perceptions of the experts from each institute/ organization are presented.

5.1 Global Impact Studies Center (GCISC)

GCISC started as an impulse to initiate climate change research in Pakistan and today works under the Ministry of Climate Change for the government as their body of research. The center works with three core areas: Climatology, water resources and agriculture. During the interview the head of all three sections were present and responded to interview questions closest to their expertise.

According to the experts at GCISC climate change is a reality in Pakistan and has had several impacts on the agriculture sector in the country. There has been an increase in extreme events, both flooding and drought events, the past 15 years according to research at the center. The researchers also pointed out that the temperature increase in Pakistan will be higher than the global average and will lead to an increasing demand of water for crops, which has already increased by 5-7 % since the 1960’s. For the floodplain regions around Jhelum there are specifically concerns about changes in monsoon pattern as the river is mainly fed during this season of the year (70%). However glacial melt does contribute to the river as well and an increase or change in melting season would also affect the river flows.

Regarding adaptation strategies the experts considered it to be twofold, both from a local and governmental perspective. From the local farmers perspective the realization of climate change among farmers is occurring by their own experiences, and more specifically the affects it has on their yields. This has triggered adaptation in the form of responses to their experiences, such as changes in planting and sowing time. From the government’s side a climate change policy has been developed with the main purpose to mainstream climate change adaptation strategies to the sectorial policies. According to the experts the strategies involve educating the farmers in: suitable crops, fertilizers, rain harvesting and appropriate sowing times.

5.2 Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI)

SDPI is a research-based institute, which serves as a source of expertise for policy analysis and development. The main purpose is to provide research within social, economic and environmental aspects of sustainable development and highlight issues for the key stakeholders for adaptation and policy interventions.

Drought and extreme floods are the results of climate change and have been the major reasons for migration among farmers in Pakistan. As drought affects agricultural productivity and the

27 farmers’ yields negatively they migrate to cities or even abroad to look for alternative jobs, this is what some of the institutes research show. However during the interview it was also stressed that it was not solely the impacts of climate change that had caused an increase in migration among the farmers, small pieces of agricultural land was another major factor contributing to this trend as the yields are to small to make a living. From the experts point of view this was a sign of the farmers being financially resilient to climate change because they were able to switch livelihoods to make additional incomes.

Migration among farmers to find other means to make a livelihood according to some of SDPI’s research seems to be common. Regarding adaptation from a top-down perspective, according to the expert, the main issue is the governments’ priorities: “There are climate change policies, but these need financing to be implemented, and there is no financing”. The solution for this was pointed out to be financial and technological support from developed countries, as it is countries such as Pakistan that are going to be hit the hardest by climate change.

5.3 International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

IWMI is a scientific research organization and a member of the CGIAR partnership addressing agricultural research for development. The focus of IWMI in Pakistan is on the irrigation system and issues of governance and irrigation bureaucracy.

At IWMI the main concerns about the Jhelum River were not the impacts of climate change but rather about dams, and the current discussions about constructing more dams. Another major concern regarding IWMI was regarding the very low water efficiency in the irrigation system, and the farmers using flood irrigation where most of the water evaporates: “Actually the problem is that we are talking about constructing more dams…. We have to restore our rivers, we have to restore our river ecology we don’t need to construct more dams, and we need to increase the efficiency of water use”. The importance of the wetlands was highlighted and how migratory birds have stopped coming since the area of wetlands has decreased.

According to IWMI the solution lies in bringing back the river ecosystems by dismantling dams and for this both local people and politicians need to be educated about the importance of healthy ecosystems and impacts of climate change. As previous experts have mentioned also IWMI highlights the issues of implementation: “ We have all these institutions and departments, but they are not practically working”. Another issue pointed out was the lack of cooperation between different institutions, as all of them work within their own field and have separate measurements for the same things: “Every authority works within their field without any dialogue with others and even though they are using the same type of data they have their own databases, which causes confusion. How are politicians supposed to make good decision when they don’t have one result?”

5.4 Mangla dam

The experts at Mangla dam expressed concerns regarding the dam’s capacity to deal with climate change and an increased inflow of water to the reservoir: “We don’t have enough storage capacity”. In their opinion more dams would need to be constructed in order to deal with more intense rains and increased melting from the Himalayas. During the flood seasons a flood mitigation committee decides how the water should be released and this will first ensure the safety of the dam and secondly go through important infrastructures that might be at risk. The water is then regulated to prevent any risks for the dam or other important infrastructures downstream. The downstream districts are then informed 5-6 hours before water is released through the river and they pass on the information to nearby villages according to the experts at the dam. Like several of the other experts also the ones at Mangla dam pointed out the political weakness “We have authorities and laws for everything but there is no follow up”.

5.5 Ministry of Water and Power

The Ministry of Water and Power is in charge of the national development of water and power resources, and has nine sub-organizations with mandates over different sectors. The interviewed expert at Ministry of Water and Power was not convinced that major flooding events in the Jhelum River is caused by climate change. The expert rather considered it to be a question of cycles of flooding events. Mangla dam was considered to be an important “cushion” that would assure farmers would have water even if the natural flow upstream the dam would decrease at times: “ With the dam in place we can assure that the farmers are not affected by the changes in the catchment area upstream”. However the expert pointed out that the capacity of the dam was to small, with or without climate change impacts. During the monsoon season the dam is filled up to its maximum capacity and the inflow equals outflow. During the flood season there are certain procedures that take place, which manage to reduce the peak of the floods by 20 % but never more than that.

5.6 Irrigation Department Punjab

The Irrigation Department of Punjab has mandate of the irrigation system with a monitoring unit to control the dams, barrages and canals in the region. The irrigation water in the Punjab province is delivered to farmers in the region through a network of canals collected at dams and barrages at the main rivers. The water of Pakistan’s main rivers is gathered in three reservoirs, which is then distributed into the whole irrigation system, the district of Gujrat receives its irrigation water from the Jhelum River. Hence if there is less water in one of the rivers the whole system could get affected. Definitely climate change is of major concern, according to the expert at the irrigation department, as increasing temperatures will effect the melting of the glaciers and erratic rainfalls could have impacts in some regions. As climate most certainly will affect the Jhelum River so will Mangla, and hence affect the irrigation system downstream and the farmers dependent on the water. Regarding he dams capacity some concerns where raised during flood season, however also this experts pointed out the work of the flood committee to minimize any risks of flooding.

6. Discussion

6.1 Climate change in Gujrat and Jhelum

The climate data from the meteorological station at Jhelum reveals a changing climate over the past four decades. Both changes in temperature and precipitation can be noted in the trend lines where temperatures seem to increase and precipitation in the area decrease, which is also in line with findings from other studies conducted in the region (Abbas et al., 2013 Husssain & Lee, 2014; Iqbal et al., 2016; Sheikh et al., 2015; Yaseen et al., 2014). Not only is the mean maximum temperature increasing but the mean minimum temperature is increasing as well. Some farmers specifically observed this change and expressed some reflections regarding minimum temperatures:

“ Winters are not like they used to be, the canal used to freeze and shine like a mirror and during the mornings the fields would be covered in frost” Male 78-yearold farmer from Kunjah.

The annual precipitation in the area shows a significant negative trend, with decreasing annual precipitation amounts. Hussain & Lee (2014) in their study also show a decrease in precipitation over the same area during the period 1950-2010. The study also reveals shifts in “normal” precipitation regimes, which indicates changes in intensity and precipitation amount over several regions in Pakistan. The interviewed farmers in Jhelum district also experienced these changing climatic events as some indicated changing rain patterns.

The annual mean minimum temperature shows a significant positive trend with increasing minimum temperatures between 1975-2015. Iqbal et al., (2016) also concluded this in a study where maximum and minimum temperature records were collected over 37 weather stations in Pakistan to analyze trends. The study shows how minimum temperatures have significantly increased in the whole country, especially during the winter season (Iqbal et al., 2016). Likewise some of the older farmers could relate to this specifically since they no longer could see the canal waters freeze during winter mornings, as quoted above. However one study have also shown the opposite, that annual mean minimum temperature trends show no statistical significance in Punjab. The study did however observe statistically significant trends for the spring season, when the minimum temperatures are increasing (Jahangir et al., 2016). Also Yaseen et al., (2014) notes that climate change is occurring in the Mangla catchment area where temperatures have increased in the lower parts of the catchment over the period 1971- 2010.

Abbas (2013) further shows warming trends in the Punjab province and finds that amount of extreme cold days and nights have decreased and the amount of extreme hot days and nights have increased between 1981-2010. Further the study also reveals an increased amount of summer days, which also relates to some of the farmers perceptions, as they perceived the duration of the summer season to increase. Another study on extreme temperature and precipitation by Sheikh et al., (2015) concludes that the general trend over South Asia is towards less cold extremes and more warm extremes in temperature. This study also points out the Indo- Gangetic Plain, which falls in the region of Jhelum and Gujrat, to be an area of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. Models have also shown negative impacts on 30 wheat and rice yields in the Punjab region mainly due to higher temperatures, and as both wheat and rice make up staple crops in Pakistan this poses a threat for food security (Iqbal et al., 2009a; Iqbal et al. 2009b).

6.2 Famers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation

As mentioned in the introduction several scholars have argued for the importance of local knowledge regarding climate change and adaptation (Adger et al., 2009; Chanza & De Wit, 2016; Mercer et al., 2009; Nyong et al., 2007; Orlove et al., 2010; Riedling & Berks, 2001). Further it has also been increasingly recognized by the IPCC to incorporate local and indigenous knowledge in adaptation strategy efforts (IPCC 2007; IPCC 2014). Thus this section provides an understanding of the local farmers perceptions and adaptation to climate change in this region. As these interviews where conducted by myself a deeper understanding of the respondents answers in all interviews was gained. Mikecz (2012) also emphasizes the importance of knowing the interviewees’ culture and background to decrease any power imbalance. Hence speaking the language fluently and conducting interviews without a translator decreases power imbalance and mistakes during the interview procedure.

Nearly all interviewed farmers in the three villages stated they had experienced climate change (95%), and more then half of the farmers expressed these changes as a temperature increase (68%). Around half of the interviewed also agreed that precipitation has decreased in the area (45%). These perceptions are in accordance with the actual results of the collected climate data presented in figures 2, 3 and 4. The experienced change in precipitation in the region could be related to changes in rain pattern, as 64 % mentioned unpredictable rainfalls had increased. Mostly farmers with rain- fed agriculture reflected over such changes:

“ The rains have changed, for instance we usually can expect rain in this month (January) but have not received any. And when it is time to sow we will have rain.” Female 38-yearold farmer, Chan Baila.

These results are in line with Abid et al., (2015), where farmers perceived an increase in temperature both during summer and winter, and a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore several studies from other parts of the world show similar results, as local farmers have experienced climate change in the form of changes in temperature and precipitation (Campos et al., 2014; Gandure et al., 2013; Mubaya et al., 2012; Uddin et al., 2014).

A total of 77 % of all the interviewed farmers felt that the duration of the summer season had increased, which of 14 % experienced it had highly increased. For the duration of the winter season 68 % responded it had decreased, and among these 14 % felt it had highly decreased. Among all the climatic events presented this showed the most coherent result at all three study sites, which shows seasonal temperature in the area is changing most significantly and also is in accordance with actual measured seasonal trends presented by Abid et al., (2015). Hence, this illustrates that farmers perceive the actual measured climate changes in the region accurately.

All the interviewed farmers from both Gujrat and Jhelum also expressed they had adapted to the experienced change in climate. The two strategies most commonly adopted were: increased irrigation and changing planting/sowing time. As climate change results in increasing temperatures crops can no longer be grown in the seasons they used to, hence this results in changes in planting and sowing time. This adaptation strategy strictly relates to the impacts of climate change, and also illustrates the actions taken towards the experienced change by local farmers. Several other scholars have also identified this adaptation strategy among farmers (Abid et al., 2015; Balama et al., 2013; Bryan et al., 2013; Gandure et al., 2013). However the results regarding implemented adaptation strategies (Table 2 & 3) show that the number of farmers actually making changes are limited to only a few mainly used strategies. Increased irrigation and changing planting/sowing time only represented 45 %, respectively 36 % of all the respondents in the three villages. However 64 % responded they had additional off-farm jobs, which implies it is more convenient for the farmers to switch livelihoods rather than adapting. This indicates these farmers might be facing constraints regarding implementing adaptation strategies, which reviles that climate change only plays one part in affecting these farmers’ livelihoods. Increased expenses, regulating dams, small farmland size and lack of institutional support regarding climate change adaptation are some of the other factors mainly affecting the farmers. One of the farmers expressed the need for more support to implement adaptation strategies:

“I have been researching on this on my own (improving farming practices)… But this takes time and gets expensive to do myself. Should I spend my time doing research or take care of my farm? I need financial and engineering support.” Male 34- year old farmer, Kunjah.

A major concern among all the respondents was decreased water availability and increased weeds and insects on their fields, which could be due to climate change but also other factors. One such factor is the Mangla dam, which heavily regulates the water in the Jhelum River. It affects both water availability through the canals in Kunjah and flooding in the villages along the floodplain. The farmers using the irrigation system mostly experience changes in water availability due to the regulations at the dam. Using groundwater for irrigation then compensates for this decrease in water availability from the canal. Not only does it lead to increased costs for the farmers but furthermore is not of as good quality as the water from the canals impacting crops negatively. However, as several experts expressed, the Mangla dam will not have the capacity if climate change in the region results in increased intensity of the monsoon and increased glacial melt. Hence climate change does affect the reservoir, which in turn affects people living downstream. Further increasing temperatures results in an increased water demand for crops, which also leads to the farmers experiencing decreasing water availability. Regarding increasing amounts of weeds and insects, which was the second major concern for the farmers, this could also have other explanations rather than climate change. More weeds and insects could have some links to increasing temperatures, especially winter and spring temperatures, as it could lead to the insects surviving winter (Porter, 2014). However there are other factors that could be linked to this as well, such as more resistance due to the increasing amounts of pesticides used the last decades (ibid).

Although some farmers are taking different measures to adapt a clear majority of them are resorting to other off- farm jobs to make an income, as mentioned above. This might be seen as a step towards transformation rather than adaptation, but for most of the respondents this was a complementing income to the household and not a total transformation of livelihood.

Abid et al., (2016) also highlight that agriculture only plays a small part in farmers total income in Gujrat compared to other districts in Punjab, mainly due to low agricultural productivity because of resource constraints. The interviewed farmers mainly used their agricultural products for domestic use, in other words to provide food for the family. However to make an income the farmers had other jobs in other villages or in close by cities to make up for the lack of money. Especially in Chan Baila where the females stayed at home working on the family farm while the men attended other jobs:

“My husband works outside the farm, in our neighboring village with construction. I stay home and take care of the field.” Female 48 yearold farmer, Chan Baila.

6.3 Similarities and differences between the study areas

6.3.1 Differences

Over 90 % of all interviewed farmers responded they had experienced some sort of change in the climate over the past 30-50 years. However in what kind of climatic events these changes had been experienced differed between the villages in the irrigated areas and rain- fed areas. While a majority in the floodplain villages (87 %) felt precipitation had decreased over the years the experiences of the farmers in Kunjah differed. Around half of the farmers felt a decrease and the other half felt an increase. This difference could be explained by the difference in water sources for irrigation of crops between the villages. The floodplain farmers have mainly rain- fed fields; hence are dependent on rain for good yields. However the farmers in Kunjah use water from the irrigation canals along with groundwater from tube wells hence is not as dependent on rain as a source of water. This could be one reason for these farmers to not reflect as much on changes in precipitation over the years, in other words not be as observant on precipitation changes. The farmers from the floodplain region also relate this decrease more so to changing patterns of precipitation. Over 70 % of the farmers in the floodplain region responded unpredictable rainfall had increased. Farmers from Kunjah on the other hand were somewhat dived on this perception as well, while 43 % felt an increase in unpredictable rainfalls 43 % also responded there had been no change. Another major difference between the villages is the occurrence of floods; since Kunjah is not located close to the river these farmers did not experience any flooding events, which was one of the major issues for the floodplain farmers.

Regarding adaptation strategies the two areas mainly show differences between two strategies: increased irrigation and off farm jobs. In Kunjah a total of 86 % responded that increased irrigation had been a strategy to adapt to less water availability, while only 27 % in the floodplain region responded to have increased irrigation. In Chan Baila however, increased irrigation was not an option since they did not have the financial means to for pump ground water. Further some of the mainly cultivated crops in Kunjah, rice and sugarcane, are some of the most water requiring crops. While wheat requires much less water, hence the farmers of Kunjah are in greater need for water and has increased irrigation for their fields. Regarding off- farm jobs as a strategy to adapt to a changing climate 80% in the floodplain areas responded to have additional jobs besides farming. In Kunjah on the other hand only 28 % responded to have other jobs outside of farming. This once again reflects the difference in

33 crops between the areas, as rice and sugarcane are considered to be cash crops and thereby important for the family income while wheat mainly serves the purpose of domestic use. Some of the farmers in Kunjah mentioned that when yields are good the rice is sold and provides a valuable income. Hence, the farmers in the floodplain region growing mainly wheat need to compensate this with additional incomes from other jobs.

6.3.2 Similarities

Although there were some differences the farmers from both areas were also characterized by some similarities. A clear majority in both areas perceived that the duration of the summer season had become both longer and warmer, and likewise a majority from both villages felt winter seasons had gotten shorter and milder. Other similarities were regarding how climate change has impacted the farmers in their daily lives. Most of the interviewed farmers felt they had been negatively affected by these changes. This was mainly because of less water availability and increasing weeds and insects, which had negative impacts on their yields. Further the interviewed farmers felt a lack of support from the government in sustaining their farming practices, which intensifies the negative impacts. Some of the farmers even expressed how they have approached the local agriculture office for help but gotten no response:

“When we had a pest break out in our fields and all of our yields failed we went to the agriculture office to show them what was happening. They said they would take some samples to the lab, but they never got back to us.” Male farmer 33- years from Kunjah.

Most of the interviewed farmers also agreed on how these changes had impacted their daily lives, as 86 % responded negatively and all of the respondents agreed that they had adapted to these changes. The survey also showed that a majority (64 %) of all interviewed farmers had responded to the changes by looking for off farm jobs and alternative livelihoods to secure their income. This was more common then any other form off adaptation strategy at the farms, and might be called a transformation rather than adaptation because of the change in livelihood. However, these farmers only had off- farm jobs as an additional income hence a complete transformation of livelihood is no the case for these farmers. Another adaptation form, related to water availability was an increasing amount of groundwater pumping for irrigation. Yu et al., (2013 p. 58) also show a change in irrigation source over time in Pakistan where the amount of tube wells is increasing and a combination of groundwater and canal water is commonly used for irrigation. Many farmers had come together to be able to afford digging groundwater wells for their farms, which relates to responding to changes by technological fixes and increased irrigation. Both farmers using canal water and rainwater responded the water sources they initially relied on were not enough. However the poorest interviewed farmers did not afford to pump groundwater and dig out wells in their village. Since the farmers had experienced a change in the rain patterns and this was compensated by pumping groundwater. The farmers using the irrigation system mentioned that they no longer receive as much water as they used to because of governmental changes such as narrowing and blocking parts of the canals.

6.4 Experts’ comments

A majority of the experts expressed concerns regarding the impacts of climate change on the Jhelum River and for local farmers. Not only will a temperature rise result in an increasing demand of water for the crops, but climate change will also increase the intensity and amount of climate extremes in the form of droughts and flooding events in the area. All of the governmental experts emphasized the need to construct more dams to adapt to these changes. According to them more dams would solve both the issue of water availability through the irrigation system, but also absorb most of the water during the flooding season. However at IWMI, which is a NGO, the opposite was proposed. Dismantling of current dams and to restore the river ecology was the key message. Adams (2009) has also pointed out the many negative impacts of dams on downstream people and ecosystems, and has argued for the need of a more bottom- up participatory approach when planning and managing dams. In many undeveloped countries the construction of dams is still a sign of development and great technology, but neglecting its many negative impacts (Adams, 2009).

The expert interviews also reveal a gap between the government policies and the locals. The interviewed farmers both in the floodplain region and in Kunjah confirmed they had not received any support from any authority regarding improving farming practices or adapting to climate change. However according to some experts there is capacity building at the local level provided by the provincial agricultural departments, but this was not the case for the interviewed farmers in this study. Cheema (2014) also highlights the issue of passing down responsibility of environmental issues to province level, as they will not prioritize climate change policies and rather put resources to other matters. Many of the experts did also recognize this gap, the gap of implementing climate change policies, while some saw it as a financial issue others saw it as an issue of the government’s priorities. Another gap identified was during the procedure of releasing water from the dam. During this procedure down stream districts are informed 5-6 hours ahead who then pass on the information to nearby villages. However some of the farmers confirmed this was not the case, they did not hear any signal before water is released through their village. This would have major implications for the people living in and near by the floodplain zone as they have no chance to move, and even if some knew how to swim the power of the water would be to strong to swim through.

The expert interviews have revealed the unequal distribution of power in Pakistan, power regarding the decision-making process. However this study has shown that the local farmers are already adapting to a changing climate with some limitations, while the government has not made any practical efforts in any of the villages in this study. Hence the farmers have a lot of knowledge regarding the implications of climate change for farming practices and are actively adapting. These power structures relates to the political ecology stories of justice and injustice (Robbins, 2012). The unequal distribution of resources and hazards further illustrate “winners and losers” of society, in the case of the uneven distribution of water and the risks of flooding (ibid). The Mangla Dam is supposed to sufficiently distribute water to the irrigation system and mitigate the risk of floods, but this is not the case. Neither are the farmers receiving enough water through the irrigation canals nor are the villages along the floodplain experiencing less flooding events. Further it was expressed by several experts that the flood mitigation committee serves the purpose of minimizing harm during flooding season. However, the locals are not apart of this decision making process when determining what infrastructure are of importance and should be protected from flooding. This raises questions 35 of: whom the dam is built by and who it is built for? As most of the experts considered the dams to be the number one strategy to adapt to climate change, however this could be questioned as the appropriate adaptation strategy. Could it even be a maladaptation strategy?

Adaptation in Gujrat and Jhelum is highly limited by power structures, and the local farmers can only adapt by so much until they need support to sustain or develop more efficient strategies. The adaptation strategies would be more effective if locals had a more participatory role in decisions regarding appropriate adaptation. In the case of the Gujrat district the Mangla reservoir has not solved the issue of water availability and in Jhelum district the farmers perceived the amount of flooding events to have increased. Hence, the reservoir could be questioned as the appropriate adaptation strategy in this region. This is opposite to what Zhu et al., (2013) presents, as this study suggests reservoirs for water storage to be one of the main adaptation strategies for climate change in the Indus basin. Although adaptation to climate change is already occurring at the local level many farmers are choosing to leave the farming practices, which is a result of the lack of institutional support. Many of the farmers had already compensated low incomes with additional off- farm jobs, but if the impacts of climate change become stronger and the institutional support is lacking it could lead to farmers leaving the farming completely. For institutional support to be effective and helpful for the farmers their experiences and strategies need to be fully understood and incorporated into climate change policies, as this study also shows that different areas are affected differently. Capacity building could serve as a great tool to facilitate adaptation of farming practices to a changing climate, as all farmers responded positively regarding receiving educational support. Knowledge should be passed in both directions, both from the farmers to the experts and from the experts to the farmers. Further the gap between policies and actual implementation of the policies at local level needs to be filled, if policies are not implemented they serve no purpose. As climate change is already occurring and will have stronger impacts in coming decades it is crucial that societies start adapting accordingly. We have already passed the promising stage of mitigating emissions; climate change is here and will have the biggest impacts in the developing parts of the world. Within developing countries like Pakistan the farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the climate, will face the biggest challenges. To minimize the negative impacts it will be crucial to adopt suitable adaptation strategies to climate change.

6.5 Limitations

A limitation for this study was the uneven number of interviewed farmers in the rain- fed villages and the irrigated villages; hence its comparability could be questioned. Further the overall small number of respondents is a limitation, as no general conclusion of the whole region can be made. Rather this study gives an understanding of the local situation of these specific areas. However other similar studies from the area and field observations where used to support and strengthen the results, hence some more general conclusions could be made.

7. Conclusion

Meteorological data from Jhelum shows a significant trend in both increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation over the past four decades in the region. Farmers are accurately experiencing this climate change at the local level; both farmers with rain- fed and irrigated agriculture. The farmers with rain- fed fields are more vulnerable to climate change than farmers with irrigated fields, due to their direct dependence on rain patterns. However future climate change could have severe impacts on the dam, hence also affect the irrigation system. This study also shows that local farmers have adopted different adaptation strategies in response to the experienced climate change, mainly in the form off changing planting and sowing time and increased irrigation using groundwater, but also by having alternative off- farm jobs. Expert interviews mainly revealed three aspects: 1) Dams are considered to be the main form of adaptation in the area 2) There is self-criticism among institutions regarding government priorities on climate change adaptation 3) There are bottle necks in the system concerning implementation of climate change adaptation policies. According to some experts there are several efforts made to support farmers, however the interviewed farmers in this study disagreed and are in need of support.

The results indicate that it is easier for the farmers to have additional side jobs than to implement adaptation strategies in their farming practices. The lack of institutional support for local farmers is hindering effective adaptation in this region of Pakistan. This is of big concern as the locally produced wheat and rice is not only the main source of food in the households, but reduced yields also pose a major threat to Pakistan’s national economy that heavily depends on its agricultural income. Hence the national food security and economy could face severe risks if adaptations are not made. To conclude, local farmers are taking measures to adapt to climate change, but there is an urgent need for government to step in and support these actions and initiatives for successful and long- term adaptation.

Acknowledgements

First and foremost I would like to sincerely thank ÅForsk for my travel grant to be able to conduct this field study. Secondly I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Håkan Berg for useful comments and engagement during this process. I would also like to thank three fellow students for their support: Arian Barakat for his assistance with statistical calculations, Kristina von Schreeb for support during development of location map and Maria Fredlund for proofreading. Further I would like to thank Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) for providing me with climate data. Lastly big thanks to my father (Yaseen Saleemi) and my uncle (Mohsin Saleemi), who helped me find contacts and assisted me in the field. This thesis would not have been possible without you.

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Appendix

Questionnaire for local farmers

Social background

Name of farmer:

District and village name:

Date:

Age:

Gender:

Level of education:

Main crop on farm:

Occupation (other than farming, if any)

Family size:

Farm size:

Since how long he is practicing farming?

1. Have you experienced climate change? (Explain in easy terms for participants)

Yes No

2. What are these changes in specific climatic events?

Highly Increased No Change Decreased Highly Increased Decreased Rainfall

Temperature

Occurrence drought

Occurrence flood

Unpredictable rainfall

Changes in monsoon

Duration summer season

Duration winter season

Other

3. Have these changes affected your livelihood and well-being? (income, social and physical safety, living situation etc.) If yes, how?

Yes No

Very Positively

Positively

No effect

Negatively

Very negatively

4. How have you been affected by these changes in your daily life?

Increased No change Decreased Don’t know Water availability

Soil fertility Crop Yield Wheat Rice Maize sugarcane Income from farming Expenses in daily life Change in insects Other

5. Have you taken any adaptation measures against these perceived changes? (Explain in easier terms)

Yes No

6. What different adaptation strategies have you used?

Strategy: Increased use of irrigation Practicing diversification Integrated farming system Use of drought tolerant crops Practicing crop rotation Cultivating short duration crops Finding off-farm job Technological fixes Other

7. Do you receive the support you need to sustain these adaptation practices?

Yes, all I need Yes, but not Somewhat No, not at all enough

8. Is there any role of government agencies or other organizations in facilitating adaptation at your farm? (Open- ended question)

9. What kind of support would you need more of to be able to adapt to current and future climate changes?

Technical support to manage farming Technical support for disaster risk reduction Financial support Education on climate change Education on improved/resilient farming practices Other

10. What is your opinion about the current water regulation system by the Mangla dam?

Very good Good Neutral Not good Not good at all

11. If the experience has been negative, how? (Open-ended question)

12. Currently, what is the most severe issue with the water regulation and climate changes for your farming practices? (Open-ended question)