Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Among Farmers in the Gujrat and Jhelum Districts, Pakistan
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Department of Physical Geography Climate change adaptation strategies among farmers in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts, Pakistan Sanna Saleemi Master’s thesis GA 32 Geography, 45 Credits 2016 Preface This Master’s thesis is Sanna Saleemi’s degree project in Geography at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University. The Master’s thesis comprises 45 credits (one and a half term of full-time studies). Supervisor has been Håkan Berg at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University. Examiner has been Stefano Manzoni at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University. The author is responsible for the contents of this thesis. Stockholm, 13 June 2016 Steffen Holzkämper Director of studies Abstract Climate change imposes major threats for farming communities in South Asia as increased temperatures and changes in precipitation impact yields. Local farmers in Pakistan are facing similar challenges and the country has already been highly affected by climate change. Further, local knowledge is increasingly being recognized as an important complement to quantitative climate data. There is a need to go beyond the quantitative results in climate change research, and ground proof these data by including local experiences. Many farmers around the world are experiencing climate change and are responding to these with various adaptation strategies. This study examines climate change in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts in the Punjab province in Pakistan, how local farmers perceive climate change and what adaptation strategies local farmers have implemented. The study also intends to examine the main constraints to adaptation by incorporating expert views to analyze issues and gaps in the system. The results show increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in the study region between 1975-2014. Farmer surveys indicate that a majority of the farmers perceive these changes and have applied different adaptation strategies as a response. These strategies mainly consist of: changing planting/sowing time and increased irrigation using groundwater. A third form of response to smaller yields and decreased income was alternative off- farm jobs, as an additional income. Expert interviews reveal contradictions of implementation of climate change adaptation policies along with contrasting responses to the farmers regarding institutional efforts to support the local farmers. These results show how lack of institutional support is hindering effective, successful and long-term adaptation for these farming communities. 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 5 2. Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 7 3. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Study area ................................................................................................................................ 8 3.2 Sampling and data collection ........................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 Climate data ................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.2 Questionnaires .......................................................................................................................... 10 3.2.3 Semi- structured interviews ................................................................................................ 10 4. Results ............................................................................................................................. 12 4.1 Climate data ..........................................................................................................................12 4.1.1 Temperature changes............................................................................................................. 12 4.1.2 Precipitation changes ............................................................................................................. 14 4.2 Farmer surveys ...................................................................................................................15 4.2.1 Kunjah- irrigated region ..............................................................................................15 4.2.1.1 Perceived climate changes................................................................................................ 15 4.2.1.2 Implications of perceived climate changes ................................................................ 18 4.2.1.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change..................................................................... 20 4.2.2 Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana- Rain fed region ...........................................................21 4.2.2.1 Perceived climate change .................................................................................................. 21 4.2.2.2 Implications of perceived climate changes ................................................................ 24 4.2.2.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change..................................................................... 26 5. Expert interviews ..................................................................................................................27 5.1 Global Impact Studies Center (GCISC) ................................................................................ 27 5.2 Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) .......................................................... 27 5.3 International Water Management Institute (IWMI) ..................................................... 28 5.4 Mangla dam .................................................................................................................................... 29 5.5 Ministry of Water and Power.................................................................................................. 29 5.6 Irrigation Department Punjab ................................................................................................ 29 6. Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 30 6.1 Climate change in Gujrat and Jhelum ..........................................................................30 6.2 Famers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation .......................................31 6.3 Similarities and differences between the study areas ..........................................33 6.3.1 Differences .................................................................................................................................. 33 6.3.2 Similarities .................................................................................................................................. 34 6.4 Experts’ comments .............................................................................................................35 6.5 Limitations ............................................................................................................................36 7. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 37 References .......................................................................................................................... 39 Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 43 3 4 1. Introduction Since the 1950’s a global warming trend has been observed caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions due to anthropogenic activities. In many regions climate change has not only caused increased temperatures but also had major impacts on precipitation patterns and glacier melt, affecting water availability (IPCC, 2013). Further the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that climate change has had more negative impacts on crop yields than positive (IPCC, 2014). As agricultural practices primarily depend on the climatic conditions, changes in: temperature, precipitation and climatic extremes could have major implications for farmers. South Asia’s heavy economic dependence on agriculture makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the local farmers most dependent on the climate for their livelihoods face the most severe challenges (IFAD, 2010; Vermeulen et al., 2012). Among the South Asian countries Pakistan is one of the most affected by climate change as it has been hit hard by both droughts and severe flooding events the past 20 years (Kreft et al., 2016). Pakistan also has an agro-based economy highly dependent on its agricultural production (Iqbal et al., 2009a). According to IPCC the number of cold days and nights have decreased, while the number of warm days and nights have increased globally (IPCC, 2013), and such temperature changes have been noted to have negative impacts for Pakistan’s agricultural productivity (Iqbal et al., 2016). The Punjab province is the most populated province in Pakistan and all five tributary rivers (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) to the Indus River pass through the region. The province is also home to one of the largest irrigation systems in the world; therefore Punjab has an extensive agriculture with several different agricultural products