IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu B R E F 11 2020 I The End of the Second Karabakh War: Has a Lasting Peace Come to the South Caucasus? By Krševan Antun Dujmović Introduction In a year in which the whole world seemed namely unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by Azerbaijan, a long war of attrition was avoided. to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, a war broke to have frozen its conflicts, uniting its efforts out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over destruction of properties and cultural sites in Thus, the second war caused a significantly lower Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions in this region of rich history on the crossroads between Asia and Europe, the Caspian and involving two nations in the South Caucasus, the Black Sea. The short duration of this war Azerbaijan. This was a full-scale armed conflict also insured that no big players neighboring for more than six years, this war lasted only Armenia and Azerbaijan get directly involved but unlike the first Karabakh war that lasted six weeks. Mainly due to modern warfare and on either of the two warring sides, which could deployment of new sophisticated technology, have had incomprehensible consequences for IRMO BRIEF 11/2020 1 the international community. This is because to gain the interest of the world, it rapidly the countries neighboring the conflict area ended, leaving the international community are substantively different comparatively to once again perplexed. Has the ceasefire what they were in the first half of the nineties agreement signed between Armenia and when the first Karabakh war took place. Azerbaijan on November 9 brought a lasting Firstly, to the north, Russia was then a country peace to the South Caucasus, or is the truce facing disintegration and social implosion, just temporary, freezing the conflict for yet with its military in disarray, unable to quell another round of hostilities? a rebellion in its small republic of Chechnya in the North Caucasus. Today, Russia is the Prelude to the war second military force in the world, spreading its political and military clout far beyond The second Karabakh war that broke out on its borders. Secondly, to the west, Turkey 27 September 2020 is merely the ultimate has become a major political power in the phase of the conflict between Armenia region, assertive and ambitious, the size of and Azerbaijan, that erupted into the first its military is second only to that of the US in Karabakh war from 1988 till 1994, and NATO. Thirdly, to the south, Iran which was which was simmering ever since. The first by late eighties a country weary of conflicts war between the two countries broke out after a long war with Iraq, is today a regional three years before the collapse of the USSR power wielding it leverage in most of the in 1991, when it was evident that the Soviet Middle East. Considering this, the second war Union would disintegrate. Along with brutal in Karabakh had a potential of erupting to a wars in the North Caucasus - in Chechnya, wider regional conflict, and considering the Dagestan and Ingushetia, the Transnistrian players involved, even into a global conflict. war, and the war in Tajikistan that took tens However, while Europe was introducing a of thousands of human lives, it proves that second wave of lockdowns in order to grind the dissolution of the Soviet Union was by to a halt the coronavirus, and while the US no means peaceful, as sometimes incorrectly was embroiled in the presidential election presented. In the first Karabakh war the campaign, shattered by an unprecedented Armenians had the upper hand, and over the economic slump and civil unrest, the war six-year period they managed to steadfastly between Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted rout the Azerbaijanis, occupying around without much attention of the international 16% of their country. community. When the conflict finally started IRMO BRIEF 11/2020 2 Armenian success in the first on establishing relations with Russia, while Karabakh war was never met planning the enlargement of NATO in Eastern Europe. with the international approval, and “Artsakh’’ was never Ever since 1994 the main political, internationally recognized. military and economic goal of Azerbaijan was to reintegrate control of not just Nagorno-Karabakh region, the Nagorno-Karabakh and the At the end of the first war, Armenian seized which had a status of an autonomous region surrounding regions under its within Azerbaijan, but also seven other regions control. surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to the south and the west, populated mostly by Azeri population. These regions around Nagorno-Karabakh Karabakh war was never met with the However, Armenian success in the first were vital for the formation of the breakaway international approval, and “Artsakh’’ was state that the Armenians call the Republic of never internationally recognized. At the “Artsakh”, as it served as a connecting zone same time, the Azerbaijan never came to between Nagorno-Karabakh and the Republic terms with the fact that more than 16% of its of Armenia. The loss of the city of Shusha in territory was occupied, and ever since 1994 Nagorno-Karabakh, which has a special place in the main political, military and economic Azerbaijani culture and history, and the loss of goal of Azerbaijan was to reintegrate the these adjacent regions was particularly painful Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions under its control. Thus, right after agreement they had to take care about a million for Azerbaijanis, as after the 1994 ceasefire refugees and internally displaced persons. Both the ceasefire agreement was signed that Armenians and Azerbaijanis lost thousands of ended the first war, preparation had started people, both combatants and civilians, but in Azerbaijani territory after the 1988-1994 war for a future conflict. With the occupation of the end the Armenian expelled the Azerbaijanis. The war dragged for more than six years, and another frozen conflict emerged, along with the international community was unwilling North Caucasus and Central Asia. These the other Post-Soviet conflicts in Moldova, to get involved. Europe was mostly focused on the war that followed the break-up of War in 2008, and Russo-Ukrainian War in conflicts were followed by the Russo-Georgian Yugoslavia, and the US did not want to meddle 2014, and these countries have still frozen in the post-Soviet republics, but rather focused conflicts on their territories to present day. IRMO BRIEF 11/2020 3 Russia as the peace broker between All the attempts of the Minsk Armenia and Azerbaijan Group were futile and managed In years that followed, the frozen conflict only to keep the conflict frozen between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been rather than to bring the genuine taking a fierier course as the clashes broke peace agreement. out in a number of occasions along the line of contact between the two sides, most Years passed with no progress, and occasional perilously in 2016. Throughout 26 years clashes kept taking a heavy toll in human since the 1994 ceasefire, the international community has been manifesting its breached over 7,000 times, indicating that the lives. After 1994 agreement, ceasefire was willingness to resolve this situation, but mainly declaratory. Even during the first for a new war seasoned in autumn this year. armed conflict was inevitable. The situation Karabakh war in 1992 the OSCE formed the After years of numerous clashes between the two sides along the line of contact, Azerbaijan decided to take a decisive action Minsk Group to resolve the conflict over chaired by France, Russia and the United to take control over its occupied territories. Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Group was co- States. Notwithstanding, all the attempts of The political situation in the world was ideal for launching an assault against Armenian only to keep the conflict frozen rather forces in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. the Minsk Group were futile and managed than to bring the genuine peace agreement With Russia focused on protests in Belarus, appeasing both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan felt that the big northern neighbor frozen conflict in Ukraine and war in Syria, adopted the Resolution 62/243, under would be reluctant to intervene. This was of The United Nations General Assembly the title „The Situation in the Occupied crucial importance for Azerbaijan, as Russia Territories of Azerbaijan”, and it demanded “immediate, complete and unconditional both Russia and Armenia are members of the has a considerable influence on Armenia, and withdrawal of all Armenian forces from all Collective Security Treaty Organization. Like the occupied territories of Azerbaijan,” but its Western counterpart NATO, CSTO perceives this UN resolution took no effect, as in many an attack on one state as an act of aggression other cases around the world. against all member states. Russia has also established a big military base in the second the hostilities broke out on 27 September, biggest Armenian city Gyumri. However, after IRMO BRIEF 11/2020 4 Russia clearly stated that it would not intervene on 9 November, the international community in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions was once again taken by surprise as Armenia of Azerbaijan, in other words that it would only intervene if the territory of the Republic brokered by Russia. and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire agreement of Armenia was invaded. South Caucasus cornered between Azerbaijan procured Turkish regional powers “Bayraktar TB-2” and Israeli “Hermes 900” drones, and these Russia stepped in at a moment it perceived most weapons turned the tide of war on opportune, and in order to prevent a melee its side. combat around and in Stepanakert (Azerbaijani Khankendi, renamed in 1923 after the Bolshevik Azeri troops swept swiftly though the territory revolutionary Stepan Shaumian), the largest city separating Nagorno-Karabakh from Iran and Armenia, in attempt to cut off Nagorno- agreement signed by the President of Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh.