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University of Southampton Research Repository Eprints Soton University of Southampton Research Repository ePrints Soton Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", University of Southampton, name of the University School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination http://eprints.soton.ac.uk University of Southampton Research Repository Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis and, where applicable, any accompanying data are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis and the accompanying data cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content of the thesis and accompanying research data (where applicable) must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holder/s. When referring to this thesis and any accompanying data, full bibliographic details must be given, e.g. Thesis: Author (Year of Submission) "Full thesis title", University of Southampton, name of the University Faculty or School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination. Data: Author (Year) Title. URI [dataset] UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON FACULTY OF SOCIAL, HUMAN AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES Academic Unit of Geography and Environment Safe Operating Space for Development and Ecosystem Services in Bangladesh by Md Sarwar Hossain Sohel Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Supervisor: Prof John A Dearing Dr Felix Eigenbrod Dr Fiifi Amoako Johnson November 2016 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON ABSTRACT FACULTY OF SOCIAL, HUMAN AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES Geography and Environment Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Safe Operating Space for Development and Ecosystem Services in Bangladesh By Md Sarwar Hossain Sohel This thesis makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at regional scale by considering the dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) are analysed to understand the co-evolution (trends, change points, slow and fast variables and drivers) of the Bangladesh delta social-ecological system (SES). The linkages between ES and HWB are analysed using regression models (GAM, linear and logistic) to develop a system model, which is used in a system dynamic (SD) model to demonstrate the safe operating space for the SES in the Bangladesh delta. I employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawals). Since the 1980s, HWB has improved in the Bangladesh delta mirroring rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, ES have deteriorated since the 1960s in terms of water availability, water quality and land stability in the Bangladesh delta. The overall results suggest that material well-being (basic materials for a good life) have a strong relationship with provisioning services, which in turn, show a weak relationship with the quality of life (security and health). The SD model suggests that the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 oC temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 oC temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources and 3) also possibly by revising the global policy (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) to implement at regional scale. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems. i ii Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. iii List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xi DECLARATION OF AUTHORSHIP ........................................................................ xvii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ xix Definitions and Abbreviations .................................................................................... xxi Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 23 1.1. Background .......................................................................................................... 23 1.2 Case study area- The Bangladesh delta .................................................... 26 1.3 Thesis structure ................................................................................................ 29 Chapter 2: Paper 1 ........................................................................................................... 33 Recent changes in ecosystem services and human well-being in the Bangladesh coastal zone ....................................................................................................... 33 2.1 Abstract ....................................................................................................................... 33 2.2. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 34 2.3. Methods ..................................................................................................................... 39 2.4. Results ........................................................................................................................ 43 2.4.1. Provisioning services ......................................................................................... 43 2.4.2. Regulating services ............................................................................................ 44 2.4.3. Habitat and cultural services ............................................................................ 47 2.4.4. Population and human well-being .................................................................. 47 2.4.5. Social-ecological dynamics ............................................................................... 48 2.5. Discussion ................................................................................................................. 53 2.5.1. Ecosystem service trends .................................................................................. 53 2.5.2. Social and biophysical drivers .......................................................................... 54 2.5.3. Resilience, shocks and tipping points ............................................................. 55 2.5.4. ES, economic growth and well-being .............................................................. 56 iii 2.6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 59 Chapter 3: Paper 2 ........................................................................................................... 60 Recent trends of human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta .................................. 60 3.1 Abstract ....................................................................................................................... 60 3.2. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 61 3.3. Methods ..................................................................................................................... 63 3.3.1. Study area ............................................................................................................ 63 3. 3.2. Selection of indicators ....................................................................................... 64 3.3.3. Data analyses ...................................................................................................... 66 3.4. Results ........................................................................................................................ 67 3.4.1. Health ................................................................................................................... 67 3.4.2. Material condition .............................................................................................. 68 3.4.3. Poverty ................................................................................................................
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