Elsevier required licence: © <2018>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC‐BY‐NC‐ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by‐nc‐nd/4.0/ 1 Bloom drivers of the potentially harmful dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum 2 (Pavillard) Schiller in a south eastern temperate Australian estuary 3 4 5 Penelope A. Ajani1*, Michaela E. Larsson1, Stephen Woodcock1, Ana Rubio2, Hazel 6 Farrell3, Steve Brett4, Shauna A. Murray1 7 8 1Climate Change Cluster (C3), University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, 9 Broadway NSW 2007, Australia, and Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Chowder Bay 10 Rd, Mosman NSW 2088 Australia 11 12 2Natural Resources Branch, Hornsby Shire Council, Hornsby, NSW 2077 Australia 13 14 3New South Wales Food Authority, Newington NSW 2127 Australia 15 16 4Microalgal Services, Ormond VIC 3204 Australia 17 18 19 *Corresponding author: 20 Dr Penelope Ajani 21
[email protected] 22 23 24 Keywords: harmful algal blooms (HABs); eutrophication; Hawkesbury Estuary; 25 phytoplankton 1 26 27 Abstract 28 Harmful algal blooms are an increasing concern in the estuarine reaches of the Hawkesbury- 29 Nepean River, one of the largest coastal rivers systems in south eastern Australia. In the austral 30 spring of 2016, an unprecedented bloom of the harmful mixotrophic dinoflagellate 31 Prorocentrum minimum occurred in Berowra Creek (maximum cell abundance 1.9E+06 cells 32 L-1, 89% of the total phytoplankton community), a major tributary of this river system. In 33 response to this bloom, our study utilizes an estuary-wide, thirteen-year time series of 34 phytoplankton abundance and environmental data to examine the spatial and temporal patterns 35 of this harmful algae and its potential bloom drivers in this system.