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Market Roundup Company Focus: Ashtead 9 March 2018

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Market Roundup Company Focus: Ashtead 9 March 2018 9 March 2018 Market Roundup Chart 1: UK Services PMI The FTSE 100 index bounced off a 14-month low on Monday, adding 65 0.7% as packaging manufacturers Smurfit Kappa and DS Smith led the risers. 60 Tuesday saw a further 0.4% gain for the blue-chip index. Tesco 55 benefited after industry data showed strong sales in recent weeks. Just Eat led the fallers however, as the takeaway ordering website 50 announced a £50m-plus business investment, which is expected to cut 45 2018 earnings by a quarter. Smurfit Kappa, having rejected a bid from International Paper, hit a 40 record high on Wednesday after a report that it would be open to a Jul-17 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jan-18 Jan-17 Jan-16 Sep-17 Sep-16 Sep-15 Nov-17 Nov-16 Nov-15 Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 May-17 May-16 takeover at €40 per share. May-15 Rolls-Royce was Wednesday’s biggest blue-chip riser after full-year IHS Markit UK Services PMI earnings beat expectations. Source: Bloomberg Data at 9/3/2018 Retailers were under pressure on Thursday after John Lewis Partnership warned that the weak pound and rising costs were Chart 2: Annual house price growth (%l) squeezing earnings. 6.0 But Aviva rose after increasing its full-year dividend by 18% - its fourth 5.0 consecutive year of double-digit dividend growth. Carnival was also up on positive broker comment. The FTSE 100 added 0.6%. 4.0 UK shares were mixed in early trading on Friday ahead of the monthly 3.0 US jobs report. 2.0 Company Focus: Ashtead 1.0 Ashtead, the US-focused plant hire group, posted better-than-expected third-quarter results on Tuesday. But the company’s shares fell on the 0.0 day after it warned of possible currency headwinds and announced Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-17 Oct-17 Apr-17 Feb-18 Feb-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-17 that finance chief Suzanne Wood will step down at the end of March. May-17 Pre-tax profits in the three months ended 31 January increased to Halifax House Prices (Annual % change) £205m, from £179m the previous year. EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) rose to £409m. Source: Bloomberg Data at 9/3/2018 Ashtead’s equipment has been in high demand in the US following the Chart 3: Ashtead revenues 31/10/2017 devastation left by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The group’s US 3% division, Sunbelt Rentals, increased rental-only revenues by 24%. 13% However, Ashtead’s overseas focus proved to be a drag on profits with exchange rates having a £19m negative impact on profits in the quarter. Ashtead’s chief executive, Geoff Drabble, said: “All our divisions continue to perform well in supportive end markets. While currency continues to be a headwind, we expect this to be mitigated by the strong underlying performance in North America. Therefore, we 84% anticipate full year results to be line with prior expectations.” Suzanne Wood will be replaced as group finance director by her Sunbelt (US) A-Plant (UK) Sunbelt (Canada) deputy and group treasurer Michael Pratt. Source: Brewin Dolphin Client Note Data at 9/3/2018 Brewin Dolphin Research Economic Roundup An inconclusive election result in Italy, and fears of a trade war sparked by the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda, formed an uncertain backdrop to the week’s economic news. In the US, Gary Cohn - Donald Trump’s top economic adviser - resigned, reportedly in response to the President’s insistence on imposing new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Meanwhile in the UK, survey data showed activity in the all-important services sector growing at its fastest rate for four months in February. The closely-watched IHS Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.5 in February from 53.0 in January. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. IHS Markit said growth was supported by strong job creation across the sector. UK car sales slowed again in February, though the pace of decline steadied, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. Sales of new cars fell 2.8% last month compared to the year before. February is traditionally a slow month for the car market ahead of the March number plate change. House prices continue to soften, according to Halifax. The annual rate of price growth slowed to 1.8% in the three months to February, and property values were 0.7% lower than in the previous quarter. Managing director Russell Galley said: “House prices continue to remain broadly flat, as they have since the end of last year. The annual rate of growth has slowed from 2.2% in January to 1.8% in February, the lowest rate of growth since March 2013.” But, he added: “While we expect price growth to remain low, the low mortgage rate environment, combined with an ongoing shortage of properties for sale, should continue to support house prices over the coming months.” The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors’ Residential Market Survey also found prices were flat in February, with London seeing price falls. New buyer enquiries - a leading indicator of demand - decreased for an 11th consecutive month in February. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “Demand hasn’t fallen for such a protracted period since the 2008 financial crisis. We fear that demand will continue to fall rapidly over the coming months, as new mortgage rates pick up.” Meanwhile, manufacturing in the UK notched up its ninth consecutive month of growth - the longest period of expansion on record - boosted by global economic growth and the weaker pound. Manufacturing grew by 0.1% in January compared to December, the Office for National Statistics said. Total industrial production, which includes the UK’s North Sea oil and gas fields as well as utilities such as water and gas, grew by 1.3%. However, UK construction output fell at its fastest annual pace in January since 2013, according to the ONS. “Construction continues to be a weak spot in the UK economy with a big drop in commercial developments, along with a slowdown in housebuilding,” said ONS senior statistician Ole Black. Company announcements that caught our attention this week Date Company Comment 7/3/2018 Legal & General Legal & General’s 32% increase in profits looked impressive but was driven by exceptional items. Operating profits at the FTSE 100 insurer rose from £1.6bn to £2.1bn in 2017. Results were boosted by forecasts that improvements in life expectancy were slowing. The slowdown helps life insurers which pay annuities to customers until death. Legal & General said it was releasing £332m of reserves as its customers probably won’t live as long as previously thought. The company’s profits were also buoyed by a £246m tax benefit. Once one-off items are stripped out, operating profits rose by about 10%, consistent with management guidance. The full-year dividend rose 7% to 15.35p. 6/3/2018 Rolls-Royce Revenue and profits at Rolls-Royce beat expectations last year and management is hopeful that 2018 will be another year of progress. Underlying pre-tax profits rose from £813m to £1.1bn in the year to 31 December 2017. Free cash flow was strong at £273m, compared to £100m in 2016. Civil Aerospace, Rolls-Royce’s biggest division, saw an improvement in operations from increased large engine delivery volumes and a rise in invoiced flying hours. However, the cost of repairing problems on the Trent 1000 engine, which powers Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, has escalated. Rolls-Royce also admitted to problems with the Trent 900 engine. In total, the cash cost of dealing with these problems was £170m in 2017. The cash impact in 2018 is expected to double as maintenance activity intensifies, before falling to around £100m in 2019. Brewin Dolphin Research Key Company Diary Dates Tue 13 Mar Antofagasta Full-year results Wed 14 Mar Balfour Beatty Full-year results Wed 14 Mar Wm Morrison Full-year results Wed 14 Mar Prudential Full-year results Fri 16 Mar JD Wetherspoon Half-year results Economic highlights over the next week Tue 13 Mar – Spring Statement – For years, the Spring Budget has been the most important event of the UK’s financial year, but not anymore. The rebranded Spring Statement will be more low-key with no spending increases or tax changes expected to be announced. Tue 13 Mar – US Inflation – Concerns that higher inflation will prompt faster-than-expected US interest rate rises led to stockmarket falls earlier in the year. Consumer prices in the US increased 2.1% year-on-year in January. Fri 16 Mar - Eurozone inflation - While US Inflation has been showing signs of creeping up, in the eurozone it’s a different story. February’s flash estimate of inflation was 1.2%, the lowest for more than a year. Index Movements* Index Value %Change FTSE 100 7,203.24 0.38 FTSE 250 19,968.01 2.13 AIM 1,041.46 0.99 Dow Jones 24,895.21 1.16 S&P 500 2,738.97 2.29 Hang Seng 30,654.52 -1.26 Nikkei 225 21,368.07 -1.64 Currency Movements* Currency Pair Value %Change £:$ 1.38 0.01 £:€ 1.12 0.00 £:¥ 146.72 0.00 Best & Worst performing sectors (rel. to FTSE 350)* Best & Worst FTSE 100 performing stocks* Sector %Change Company %Change Utilities 3.48% Smurfit Kappa 28.5% Industrial Goods & Services 2.42% Rolls-Royce 11.3% General Industrials 2.29% DS Smith 9.3% Banks -2.17% Ashtead -4.4% Basic Resources -2.52% Sainsbury's -5.7% Autos & Parts -3.54% Just Eat -11.2% *Weekly movements up until close of business Thursday Important Notes: Main source of information: Company Report and Accounts, Bloomberg The value of investments and any income from them can fall and you may get back less than you invested.
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