The real risk to America’s democracy Heatwaves and Miyawaki forests Lessons from China’s economy Football: politics by other means

JULY 3RD–9TH 2021 The long goodbye

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012 Contents The Economist July 3rd 2021 5

The world this week Asia 8 A summary of political 23 North Korea’s economy and business news 24 Meet India’s Stalin Reviving Japan’s sento Leaders 25 Schrödinger’s government 11 After the pandemic 25 The long goodbye in Malaysia Banyan Religion in India 12 American democracy 26 The real risk China 13 Heatwaves Mercury rising 27 A bigger aircraft-carrier 13 Hong Kong and finance 28 Opting out of the rat race Code red 30 Chaguan The party’s 14 Europeans in Britain 100th birthday bash On the cover A vote of confidence The pandemic still has a long way to go, but glimpses of its Letters legacy are emerging: leader, 17 On Afghanistan, Tesla, United States page 11. Evolution is providing a cultures, unesco, Brazil, 31 The big lie and the growing range of viral variants: Geordies constitution briefing, page 18. Our new 34 Border disorder normalcy index shows that Briefing lives are only halfway back to 35 ufos: the truth, revealed! 18 Covid-19 variants pre-pandemic norms: Graphic Lexington There goes the Very bad for the 36 detail, page 76. How to assess neighbourhood unvaccinated the costs and benefits of lockdowns, page 61. What If? The Americas Post-pandemic work is here. 37 Food in Cuba And it is messy, page 55 Our annual supplement of scenarios considers 38 Indigenous Canadians The real risk to America’s global health in a 40 Bello National identities democracy Partisan election post-covid world administration is a greater worry After page 40 than voter suppression: leader, page 12, and analysis, page 31 Middle East & Africa Heatwaves and Miyawaki 41 Africa’s third wave forests How to protect people from the growing threat posed 42 Jailing Jacob Zuma by extreme heat: leader, page 13. 43 Ethiopia’s army is routed Could miniature forests help 44 Egypt gets active in Gaza air-condition cities? Page 67 45 Finding kabsa in the Gulf Lessons from China’s economy Why our departing China economics editor remains optimistic about the country’s growth: Free exchange, page 66

Football: politics by other Bartleby Companies can means Why politicians will get sucked in to spending always meddle in the beautiful too much on their image, game at the European page 58 championship: Charlemagne, page 49

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012 6 Contents The Economist July 3rd 2021

Europe Finance & economics 46 Greece, Turkey and 61 Lockdown costs German submarines and benefits 47 Europe’s foreign aid 64 Hot property in America 48 Montenegro totters 64 Hong Kong’s banking code 48 Dick Leonard remembered 65 Buttonwood The carry 49 Charlemagne Politics and trade returns football 66 Free exchange A decade of Chinese lessons Britain 50 Hello to the five million Science & technology 51 Covid­19 conspiracists 67 Miyawaki forests 52 Bagehot Sajid Javid, the 68 A virtual clinical trial comeback kid 69 A new human species?

International 53 The attention recession Books & arts 70 A history of the Pacific 71 A novel of modern life 72 Stanford’s origin story 72 The future of war 73 Johnson Check your privilege Business 55 Post­pandemic offices Economic & financial indicators 57 The future of tech hqs 75 Statistics on 42 economies 58 Bartleby The perils of pr 59 The film business Graphic detail 59 Facebook 1­0 ftc 76 Lives are only halfway back to pre­pandemic norms 60 Schumpeter The cost of the cloud Obituary 78 Milkha Singh, “The Flying Sikh”

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012 012 8 The world this week Politics The Economist July 3rd 2021

covid­19 vaccine. A whis­ cide, war crimes and crimes tleblower also denounced against humanity said to have Coronavirus briefs alleged irregularities in a been committed in the Darfur To 6am GMT Jul 1st 221 contract for the Indian­made region in 2003. Covaxin. The vaccine, which Weekly confirmed cases by area, m 3 has yet to be approved by a The second round of France’s India Western regulator, cost Brazil local elections were a dis­ 2 more per dose than any other appointment for Marine Le Pen Western Europe and was acquired by a third­ and her National Rally party. 1 party firm. President Jair Bol­ She had high hopes that the Other US sonaro denied wrongdoing. party would for the first time 0 The health ministry suspend­ take control of one of the 2020 2021 Much of America’s Pacific ed the contract. regional governments, in the Vaccination doses north­west and Canada’s west south. But other parties % of over-11s with coast baked in a heatwave. Mexico’s Supreme Court ruled teamed up against her candi­ Total ’000 1st dose nd Police in Vancouver reported that sections of a law which dates, who lost. President Malta 659 92 77 more than 130 sudden deaths, prohibit recreational use of Emmanuel Macron’s La Iceland 391 90 46 most of them old people or marijuana were unconstitu­ République en Marche also Kuwait 3,100 84 4 those with underlying tional, in another step towards failed to win any regions. Israel 10,749 83 77 conditions. The extreme tem­ narrow legalisation. When a Mongolia 3,720 82 72 Bhutan 485 78 0 peratures were caused by a bill currently in parliament is Britain and the European Canada 36,775 78 34 phenomenon known as a “heat enacted, those who want to Union agreed a truce in the Chile 22,501 77 62 dome”, in which an area of smoke the drug recreationally, “sausage war”. They delayed Uruguay 3,883 77 56 high pressure in the atmo­ or grow plants at home, would for three months a ban on Britain 77,304 77 56 sphere stops air escaping. be able to apply for a permit. some British meat products Sources: Johns Hopkins University CSSE; The sale of cannabis would being sold in Northern Ire- Our World in Data; United Nations President Joe Biden backed continue to be illegal; Andrés land, a consequence of the down over his claim that he Manuel López Obrador, the post­Brexit arrangement Australia’s states closed their would not sign a bipartisan president, has called the idea which in effect keeps the prov­ borders as new clusters of the infrastructure bill worth of a legal market “immoral”. ince in the eu’s single market Delta variant emerged across roughly $1trn unless it was and customs union. the country. Around 80% of accompanied by more expan­ America carried out air strikes Australians are now living sive provisions off the Demo­ against Iranian­backed mili­ The military junta in under restrictions and their cratic party’s wishlist, such as tias in Iraqand Syria. The Myanmar released nearly “travel bubble” with New tax increases. Mr Biden had Pentagon said the militias had 2,300 people who had been Zealand has been suspended. tied the two together after conducted drone strikes locked up for protesting Just 5% of the population has striking a deal with a group of against Americans in Iraq. against the army’s coup. Some been vaccinated. senators from both sides last activists and journalists crit­ week, riling Republicans. Yair Lapid, Israel’s foreign ical of the regime were also Mixing different covid­19 minister, became the highest­ released. No reason was given vaccines could boost immu­ Florida’s governor declared an ranking Israeli official to visit for the move, but the junta nity against the coronavirus, emergency after a beach­front the United Arab Emirates (uae) may be trying to temper pop­ according to researchers at condominium building in since the countries signed a ular ire. A cross­section of Oxford University. A shot of Surfside, a suburb of Miami, historic deal to normalise society has joined the protests. Pfizer­BioNTech’s vaccine collapsed. At least 18 people relations last year. Mr Lapid four weeks after one of Ox­ have died and almost 150 are inaugurated Israel’s embassy India’s government, which is ford­AstraZeneca’s, and vice missing. A study published in the uae, saying: “We’re here seeking more control of online versa, produced a high level of last year charted subsidence in to stay.” content, piled pressure on antibodies. the ground beneath the build­ Twitter. In the latest of many ing in the 1990s. South Africa’s highest court twists, the social­media com­ Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s sentenced Jacob Zuma, a for­ pany was accused of treason dictator, dismissed senior Donald Rumsfeld died at the mer president, to 15 months in for carrying a map that placed officials for “incompetence age of 88. The Republican prison for ignoring legal sum­ territory claimed by India and irresponsibility” related served twice as America’s mons and impugning judges. outside its borders. to pandemic prevention. Mr defence secretary, under Presi­ His time in the dock is not Kim did not admit that there dents Gerald Ford and George over; he is also accused of The Chinese Communist had been a covid­19 outbreak W. Bush. He was instrumental taking bribes from a French Party celebrated its 100th in his country. Last week in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, arms company while he was birthday. To mark the occa­ North Korea again told the and bore much of the criticism deputy president. sion, the party’s leader, Xi World Health Organisation when it led to violent insur­ Jinping, appeared in front of that it had recorded no cases. gency and sectarian strife. Sudan’s reform­minded gov­ 70,000 people at Tiananmen ernment said it would send the Square. He waxed lyrical about A high­ranking official at former president, Omar al­ how the party had transformed →For our latest coverage of the Brazil’s health ministry was Bashir, to the International China for the better, and prom­ virus please visit economist.com/ fired after being accused of Criminal Court (icc) at The ised that the party would never coronavirus or download the asking for a bribe in negotia­ Hague after a local trial. The allow the country to be bullied, Economist app. tions over the AstraZeneca icc has accused him of geno­ oppressed or subjugated.

012 The world this week Business The Economist July 3rd 2021 9

In America a federal judge changes, froze customers’ Argentina was dropped from Nevertheless, United Airlines dismissed two antitrust cases ability to withdraw and depos­ an index of emerging­market is betting that air travel will against Facebook brought by it sterling on its main plat­ economies compiled by msci, eventually rebound. It spent the Federal Trade Commission form. The firm claimed the a big index provider. The deci­ $30bn on 270 new planes, its and by a group of state at­ function was “suspended for sion was made in response to biggest­ever addition to its torneys general. The latter was maintenance”.It is unclear Argentina’s capital controls fleet. United plans to replace thrown out on a technicality. whether the incident is related which were imposed in Sep­ two­thirds of its 50­seat jets The ftc’s case claimed that the to a decision by the Financial tember 2019 to try to support with larger craft. That will help tech giant was abusing its Conduct Authority, a British the weakening peso. Argentine the airline offer customers market power in social net­ watchdog, which found that share prices tumbled as a more premium seats. working and using it to crush the exchange was not regis­ result. smaller rivals. But the judge tered in Britain and so was not Shareholders at Toshiba, a found that the ftc failed to allowed to operate there. Later Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest Japanese conglomerate, voted provide enough evidence to Binance said that it had un­ ride­hailing app, ended its first to dismiss the chair of the prove that Facebook is a mo­ frozen sterling withdrawals. day of trading on the New York company’s board. The vote nopoly. The company’s share Stock Exchange with a market comes after an independent price jumped 4% on the news. capitalisation of $68bn. It is report found that last year the Hot property the biggest foreign listing in firm’s management colluded Separately, Amazon filed a America since Alibaba’s debut with government officials to House prices petition to try to force Lina in 2014. crush an activist investor % change on a year earlier Khan, the new chair of the ftc, rebellion. Following their . 15 ubs to recuse herself It argued that United States said it will allow around show of strength, activist she had “already made up her 12 two­thirds of its staff to mix investors are reportedly keen mind” that the company was a 9 working from home and the to invite bids from private­ threat to competition. 6 office. The Swiss bank hopes equity firms. Britain 3 that this will give it a recruit­ Microsoft and Google ended a 0 ment edge over rivals. Other truce in which they had agreed 2019 20 21 big banks, such as Morgan Rocket man x not to litigate or complain Sources: Nationwide; S&P Global Stanley and Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk said that Space , about each other to regulators are pushing for a full return to his private rocket company, without trying to resolve the American house prices rose by the office. could spend between $20bn disagreements first. The deal 14.6% in the 12 months to and $30bn on its low­orbit was struck in 2015 by two April. That is the fastest The un estimated that the network. The firm has 1,500 then­new bosses who wanted a growth rate in 30 years. The pandemic’s impact on the satellites which provide broad­ fresh start to a fraught rela­ jump is largely because of low tourism industry will reduce band to places without fibre tionship. mortgage rates and greater global gdp by $1.7trn­2.4trn in connections or 5g. It wants to demand for suburban dwell­ 2021 (1.9­2.7% of the total). expand the network to 12,000 America’s biggest banks said ings. Similar factors pushed Poor countries are expected to satellites. The cost is much they will pay an extra $2bn in house prices in Britain to their be hardest hit because they higher than previous esti­ dividends in the next quarter. highest year­on­year growth will probably have the lowest mates. As Mr Musk put it: “It’s The announcements come rate since 2004. vaccination rates. a lot, basically.” after the Federal Reserve re­ laxed restrictions on share­ holder payouts, which it im­ posed last year to guard against large capital losses related to the pandemic.

The news from Facebook and the banks helped to push American stockmarkets to new highs. Both the Nasdaq and s&p 500 reached all­time highs. On Wednesday the s&p 500 achieved its fifth record­ breaking close in a row. The surge was also boosted by an expectation among investors that the upcoming corporate earnings season will yield strong results as well as a new survey which showed an up­ tick in consumer sentiment in America.

Binance, one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency ex­

012 012 Leaders 11

The long goodbye

The pandemic is still far from over, but glimpses of its legacy are emerging hen will it end? For a year and a half, covid­19 has gripped in state power; the overturning of everyday life leads to a search Wone country after another. Just when you think the virus is for meaning; and the closeness of death which brings caution beaten, a new variant comes storming back, more infectious while the disease rages, spurs audacity when it has passed. Each than the last. And yet, as the number of vaccinations passes 3bn, will mark society in its own way. glimpses of post­covid life are emerging. Already, two things are When people in rich countries retreated into their houses clear: that the last phase of the pandemic will be drawn­out and during lockdowns, the state barricaded itself in with them. Dur­ painful; and that covid­19 will leave behind a different world. ing the pandemic governments have been the main channel for This week The Economist publishes a normalcy index, which information, the setters of rules, a source of cash and, ultimate­ reflects both these realities. Taking the pre­pandemic average as ly, providers of vaccines. Very roughly, rich­country govern­ 100, it tracks such things as flights, traffic and retailing across 50 ments paid out 90 cents for every dollar of lost output. Slightly to countries comprising 76% of Earth’s population. Today it stands their own amazement, politicians who restricted civil liberties at 66, almost double the level in April 2020 (see Graphic detail). found that most of their citizens applauded. Yet the ravages of covid­19 are still apparent in many coun­ There is a vigorous academic debate about whether lock­ tries. Consider our index’s worst performer, Malaysia, which is downs were “worth it” (see Finance & economics section). But suffering a wave of infections six times more deadly than the the big­government legacy of the pandemic is already on dis­ surge in January and scores just 27. The main reason for this is play. Just look at the spending plans of the Biden administration. that vaccination remains incomplete. Whatever the problem—inequality, sluggish economic growth, In sub­Saharan Africa, suffering a lethal outbreak (see Middle the security of supply chains—a bigger, more activist govern­ East & Africa section), just 2.4% of the population aged over 12 ment seems to be the preferred solution. has had a single dose. Even in America, where vaccines are plen­ There is also evidence of a renewed search for meaning. This tiful, only around 30% of Mississippians and Alabamans are ful­ is reinforcing the shift towards identity politics on both the ly protected. Although the world is set to produce around 11bn right and the left, but it goes deeper than that. Roughly one in doses of vaccine this year, it will be months before all those jabs five people in Italy and the Netherlands told Pew, a pollster, that find arms, and longer if rich countries hog dos­ the pandemic had made their countries more es on the off­chance that they may need them. religious. In Spain and Canada about two in five The lack of vaccination is aggravated by new said family ties had become stronger. variants. Delta, first spotted in India, is two to Leisure has been affected, too. People say three times more infectious than the virus that they have had 15% more time on their hands. In came out of Wuhan (see Briefing). Cases spread Britain young women spent 50% longer with so fast that hospitals can rapidly run out of beds their nose in a book. Literary agents have been and medical staff (and sometimes oxygen), swamped with first novels. Some of this will even in places where 30% of people have had fade: media firms fear an “attention recession” jabs. Today’s variants are spreading even among the vaccinated. (see International section). But some changes will stick. No mutation has yet put a dent in the vaccines’ ability to prevent For example, people may decide they want to escape pre­pan­ almost all severe disease and death. But the next one might. demic drudgery at work, and tight labour markets may help None of this alters the fact that the pandemic will eventually them. In Britain applications to medical school were up by 21% abate, even though the virus itself is likely to survive. For those in 2020. In America business creation has been its highest since fortunate enough to have been fully vaccinated and to have ac­ records began in 2004. One in three Americans who can work cess to new treatments, covid­19 is already fast becoming a non­ from home wants to do so five days a week, according to surveys. lethal disease. In Britain, where Delta is dominant, the fatality Some bosses are ordering people into the office; others are try­ rate if you become infected is now about 0.1%, similar to season­ ing to entice them in (see Business section). al flu: a danger, but a manageable one. If a variant required a re­ formulated vaccine, it would not take long to create. Those who don’t die roll the dice However, as vaccines and treatments become more plentiful It is still unclear whether the appetite for risk is about to re­ in rich countries, so will anger at seeing people in poor ones die bound. In principle, if you survive a life­threatening disease, for want of supplies. That will cause friction between rich coun­ you may count yourself as one of the lucky ones and the devil tries and the rest. Travel bans will keep the two worlds apart. may care. In the years after the Spanish flu a century ago, a hun­ Eventually flights will resume, but other changes in behav­ ger for excitement burst onto the scene in every sphere, from iour will last. Some will be profound. Take America, where the sexual licence to the arts to the craze for speed. This time the booming economy surged past its pre­pandemic level back in new frontiers could range from space travel to genetic engin­ March, but which still scores only 73 on our index—partly be­ eering, artificial intelligence and enhanced reality. cause big cities are quieter, and more people work from home. Even before the coronavirus came along, the digital revolu­ So far it looks as if the legacy of covid­19 will follow the pat­ tion, climate change and China’s rise seemed to be bringing the tern set by past pandemics. Nicholas Christakis of Yale Universi­ post­second­world­war, Western­led order to an end. The pan­ ty identifies three shifts: the collective threat prompts a growth demic will hasten the transformation. n

012 12 Leaders The Economist July 3rd 2021

Holding elections The real risk to America’s democracy

Partisan election administration is a greater worry than voter suppression aving campaigned for the presidency on a promise to reju­ and beyond for a candidate of either party to exploit. To under­ Hvenate democracy around the world, Joe Biden finds him­ stand why this is so troubling, consider three fail­safe mecha­ self in a battle to defend it at home. In June, 200 prominent nisms built into American elections. American scholars of democracy signed a letter warning that The first is the principle that the loser concedes. Mr Trump changes to state laws are “transforming several states into politi­ ditched that one in 2020. The second is the integrity of local cal systems that no longer meet the minimum conditions for election officials, no matter what their partisan allegiances. De­ free and fair elections”. Another longtime student of American spite coming under great pressure to do otherwise last year, they democracy, the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McCon­ stood firm. As a reward, their powers have been stripped away or nell, said in January that if an election could be overturned by new felonies created that may be used to browbeat them. Many fact­free allegations from the losing side, “Our democracy would Republican officials who certified the election results have been enter a death spiral.” Yet that is just what his party is facilitating. censured by their local party committees and have also received For Democrats the threat to elections is about who can cast death threats. Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s Republican secre­ votes. They decry changes to laws on identification, postal bal­ tary of state, was notable in 2020 for his willingness to stand up lots and so on, which they call “the new Jim Crow”. Although to Mr Trump when he was directly asked to “find” the votes there is no excuse for restricting such things as Sunday voting, needed to overturn the results. Georgia’s state legislature has re­ which is popular with African­American churches, their fears sponded by taking away some of his authority. are overblown. Under the old Jim Crow, only 2% of African­ That leaves the third fail­safe—the courts. These too per­ Americans were registered to vote in some southern states. By formed well under stress, and they probably would do so the contrast, political scientists are unsure whether today’s next time round. Yet to put the primary responsibility for mak­ schemes will affect turnout at all. ing elections legitimate onto the judicial branch in election after Instead the real threat comes after votes have been cast (see election risks overloading it and, ultimately, breaking it. How United States section). In Arizona, for example, the legislature long would it be before a Supreme Court decision were ignored? wants to limit the independence of the chief elections officer; a Catastrophising about democracy in America has been com­ state representative introduced a law letting the mon on parts of the right: remember “the Flight legislature overturn the results of a presidential 93 Election” in 2016, which called on patriots to election, and then started campaigning to over­ storm the cockpit to deny Hillary Clinton the see elections herself. In Georgia the state legis­ presidency? It has since spread to the left and lature can now replace the leadership of county centre, too. Talk of democracy in peril raises the election boards. Texas is considering a bill that spectre of a country under an autocrat of the makes it easier to prosecute election officials. type renounced on the Fourth of July 1776. The Across the country, the officials who adminis­ greater risk is that the chaos following the 2020 ter elections in states where Republicans hold election becomes normal. By recent standards sway have been attacked for upholding the election results. Ma­ 2020 was not that close. Imagine a contest so tight that no na­ ny are at risk of being replaced. tional consensus could settle on who was ahead. America would These might seem like distant, bureaucratic changes. In fact be, to quote Mr McConnell again, on “a poisonous path where they raise the chances of a contested election that the courts only the winners of an election actually accept the result”. cannot sort out. They weaken America’s voting system in ways that will outlast the hysteria over the 2020 result. My party, right or wrong The inspiration behind this is Donald Trump, who continues Republican Party elites are in a bind of their own making. Under to use every chance he has to insist that the election was stolen. pressure from Mr Trump and his allies, state legislatures are Though it is hard to know how seriously to take him, Mr Trump making changes that will weaken American democracy. The sol­ is already holding campaign rallies for 2024 (to win the White ution is for leaders to uphold the norm that election administra­ House for the third time in a row, naturally). tors are above party. However, they have indulged the lie of a sto­ Claiming to be winning while actually losing might seem a len election to such an extent that affirming the fraud has be­ joke. Yet most Republican voters take it literally. Two in three come an essential qualification for administering the next vote. think that Mr Biden did not win November’s election and just The silent non­Trump faction of the Republican Party may short of half think the result should have been overturned. That hope that all this will blow over and that those sounding the leaves Trump­sceptics among the Republican elite in a familiar alarm about democracy are exaggerating. They may believe they dilemma. Caught between their primary voters and loyalty to can play a greater role in safeguarding America so long as they the constitution, most have concluded that, unless the Capitol is stay on good terms with their base. Yet that logic has proved faul­ under siege, the best course of action is simply to stay silent. ty since Mr Trump’s inauguration in 2016. Meanwhile, the com­ Yet the threats from Mr Trump and the threat to the constitu­ position of their party is changing around them. It would be saf­ tion operate on different time­scales. Mr Trump may or may not er for the constitution, and more in keeping with the flag­wav­ run again. By contrast, the changes to state election machinery ing spirit of the Fourth of July, for Republicans to speak out now being made by Republican legislators will be in place in 2024 before speaking out becomes even harder. n

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Leaders 13

Heatwaves Mercury rising

How to protect people from the growing threat posed by extreme heat hat is most shocking about the heatwave affecting the Pa­ ties. They can provide the public with forecasts of imminent Wcific Northwest is not merely that it has hit a usually tem­ heatwaves, explanations of the dangers and detailed advice on perate area, nor that so many long­standing temperature re­ what to do. Digital channels, including social media, can help cords are being broken. It is that those records are being broken distribute such information widely, and not just in tech hot­ by such large margins. In Portland, Oregon, thermometers spots like the Pacific Northwest. In 2017 nearly half the popula­ reached an unprecedented 46.6°C (116°F)—making it one of sev­ tion of Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital, were warned of an immi­ eral cities in the region where previous records have been beaten nent heatwave via Facebook. by a full 5°C (9°F). Meanwhile, heatwaves are also raging in cen­ Improved infrastructure can also help. This includes provid­ tral Europe and even in Siberia. ing shaded areas, water parks and “misting stations” to help peo­ Heatwaves may generate headlines, but less attention is paid ple cool down, and access to air­conditioned “cooling centres” to them than they deserve. In 2018 roughly 300,000 people over where they can find shelter and sleep if necessary. Such ameni­ the age of 65 died as a result of extreme heat, ties depend, in turn, on a more fundamental mainly in India and China, a 54% increase since Global heatwave days, bn form of infrastructure: reliable access to water 2000, according to a report in the Lancet, a med­ Weighted by population of over-65s, and electricity, supplies of which may need to compared with 1986-25 baseline ical journal. Unlike storms and floods, heat 3 be carefully managed. does not lead to dramatic before­and­after pic­ 2 Last comes planning. Building codes should 1 tures or widespread damage to property. It is a 0 ensure that new homes and offices can cope silent killer, its victims often apparent only in -1 with extreme heat. Existing buildings can be retrospect, as statisticians tot up excess deaths 1980 90 2000 1910 adapted by painting walls and roofs white, or and hospital admissions. (The fact that as many adding sheets of white material, to reduce heat as 70,000 people died as a result of a heatwave in Europe in 2003, build­up in urban areas. Planting trees provides shade and cools for example, became apparent only in 2008.) Heat also kills by the air, and also improves it—leading to a vogue for miniature exacerbating conditions such as heart problems, so not all the “Miyawaki forests” planted in urban areas (see Science section). deaths it causes may be directly attributed to it. The world is, understandably, focused on a different health Climate change will make heatwaves more common and crisis right now. But heatwaves, along with obesity, dementia more extreme. Even if greenhouse­gas emissions are cut to net­ and antibiotic resistance, pose an entirely foreseeable threat in zero by the middle of this century, temperatures will go on rising the decades to come—as we explain in “What If?”, our annual for decades. So other measures are needed to protect people collection of future scenarios. The timing and severity of the co­ against extreme heat. ronavirus pandemic could not have been foreseen. These other Governments can set up early­warning systems to alert far more predictable and preventable crises are different. There health workers, shut down schools and suspend outdoor activi­ is no excuse for failing to take them more seriously. n

Hong Kong as a financial centre Code red

Hong Kong’s regulator is right to be wary of finance with Chinese characteristics n hong kong these days few dare challenge China. Commun­ way ipos and bonds are underwritten. Where banks’ roles were Iist Party functionaries have told the city’s judges to advance once clearly defined early in the process, now a handful of insti­ China’s interests or hang up their robes. Rights of assembly to tutions, many of them mainland­Chinese, fight for top spots in protest against such infringements have been suppressed. Yet, transactions. Many are accused of inflating their orders for the even as Beijing bulldozes Hong Kong’s liberal traditions, its securities in order to impress clients. This has reduced the kings of capitalism are thriving. Investment banks have cashed transparency of the process and disrupted price discovery. in as Chinese companies have turned the city into one of the It may sound like a technicality, but bankers fear that Hong world’s top destinations for initial public offerings (ipos). Com­ Kong’s standing as a global financial centre will suffer. More­ panies have raised $88bn in share sales in Hong Kong this year over, the situation mirrors the city’s greater dilemma. A cosmo­ alone, second only to America, thanks to several large Chinese politan society with globally recognised norms is rapidly losing ipos. Over the past decade Chinese property and tech groups ground to a Chinese way of life. have kept Asia’s us­dollar debt market booming. Hong Kongers have struggled to counter incursions from an Look more closely, however, and Hong Kong’s financial cen­ authoritarian system. By contrast, the Securities and Futures tre is changing, too. Global banks say that practices from main­ Commission (sfc), the city’s independent market regulator, may land China are seeping into the city. These include a shift in the have found a way to resist the bad habits of mainland banks. It

012 14 Leaders The Economist July 3rd 2021

has proposed a new code that would set out the best practices for derwriters, most of them Western banks, that had done sub­ underwriting shares and bonds, such as declaring the roles of standard due­diligence work on ipos. banks and their fees early in the process (see Finance section). It Trust in Hong Kong is built around its many independent reg­ would discourage the spread of intentionally misleading infor­ ulators. The Monetary Authority, for instance, backs the integ­ mation on the demand for the securities. These safeguards, if rity of the Hong Kong dollar. It has carefully monitored local the sfc is powerful enough to enact and enforce them, would banks’ exposure to mainland companies as China’s economic stand as a rare form of protection against mainland influence. growth has cooled. The Companies Registry has upheld a num­ Regulating mainland­Chinese companies from Hong Kong is ber of auditing requirements for locally registered companies— not easy. The sfchas worked hard to uphold its reputation as an though it recently reduced public access to information on com­ independent regulator. Yet at times it has appeared to come un­ panies’ beneficial owners, a move that was seen as a step back­ der pressure. In 2014 it took action against a short­seller for pub­ wards for corporate transparency in the city. lishing a negative research report about a powerful property de­ The proposed code is a test of whether the regulator can up­ veloper from the mainland. It also fined Moody’s, a credit­rating hold and improve standards in politically fraught times. Many agency, for a report that listed concerns about a number of main­ international lenders, investment bankers and fund managers land groups. Critics said the cases unfairly favoured mainland support the measures. Not all mainland institutions will resist. companies and that they had a chilling effect on research that The country’s largest investment banks, such as Citic Securities was critical of them. and cicc, have tended to adopt global best practices as they have The regulator has, to its credit, tried to crack down on the done more business overseas. The China Securities Regulatory worst offenders. The sfchas recently sought to prosecute main­ Commission is also keen to clean up its own system. land companies that lied in their prospectuses. It has also gone If the sfc can add best practices to its code, the city’s status as after their banks. In 2018 it stripped one global investment bank a financial hub will stand a better chance of surviving. Ordinary of its sponsor licence and launched an investigation into 15 un­ Hong Kongers have less hope of preserving their way of life. n

Europeans in Britain A vote of confidence

Britain should encourage the 5m Europeans who want to settle to become citizens he deadline of June 30th saw a last­minute flurry, but no ies that are appealing in potential citizens. They are young: just Tmad rush. Applications by European Union citizens seeking 2% are over 65, compared with 19% of natives. Those who came to settle in post­Brexit Britain had been coming in for two years: to study and decided to stay are well­equipped for the local job over 5m of them, many more than expected (see Britain section). market. Far from being a burden on the National Health Service, Campaigners warned that some of those who are eligible may as alleged during the Brexit campaign, many are health­care have missed the deadline, or failed to apply on behalf of their workers who help prop it up. They use public services on average children. They fear a replay, decades hence, of the Windrush less than the locals do, and are more likely to be net contributors scandal, which saw Caribbean arrivals since 1948 discover much to the public purse. Many of those from ex­communist eastern later that their status had never been regularised. Europe are bootstrap capitalists, keen on hard work and grateful Such worries deserve due consideration. Yet they obscure a to Britain for admitting them straight after their countries much cheerier story: the settlement scheme has been a resound­ joined, unlike nearly every other country in the bloc. ing vote of confidence in Britain’s future. To reap this windfall, Britain’s government The 5m figure dwarfs other groups of immi­ Citizenship applications needs to be flexible and generous. Already, grant stock. According to the census of 2011, it is Britain, EU applications as % of total there is a trickle of stories about applications larger than the sum of Britain’s black popula­ 40 for settled status failing because of minor ad­ tion together with those of Indian or Pakistani Brexit referendum 20 ministrative errors, or of citizenship denied be­ descent. That is testament to Britain’s long pop­ 0 cause of a little­known requirement for some ularity with eu citizens enjoying their freedom 15132011 211917 eu migrants to arrange private health insur­ of movement, who were drawn by its high­ Years ending March ance. Rather than nit­picking, the Home Office quality universities, flexible labour market and should take a sympathetic approach. It should convenient language. The fact that so many have decided to stay also slash the application fee for adult citizenship, which at offers a rare opportunity. To make the most of it, Britain now £1,330 ($1,840), is out of line with other countries and prohib­ needs to smooth their path to citizenship. itive for people on ordinary salaries or with large families. That would be just. It was, after all, only after most had ar­ With settled status, the 5m will be able to study, work and pay rived that the Brexit vote pulled the welcome mat from under taxes. But as citizens, they and their children would play a fuller them. It would also be enlightened self­interest. An accommod­ part in Britain’s civic life by voting, standing for election and ating approach towards Europeans will encourage the same atti­ putting down roots. Over time, they would change their adopted tude towards Britons who want to settle elsewhere in the bloc, country for the better. After a drawn­out divorce that left many and build trust in future talks on such tricky matters as trade and European migrants feeling bruised and belittled, Britain is for­ the status of Northern Ireland. tunate that so many want to stay. They are a prize to be seized, Moreover, these newly settled Europeans have many qualit­ not an obstacle to be negotiated. n

012 Executive focus 15

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012 16 Executive focus

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The OPEC Fund works proactively with the international donor community and provides agile solutions to the urgent needs of developing countries, helping to Are you a well-rounded manager with a proven track overcome some of the world’s most complex development challenges. record of analytical leadership and results in either To date, the OPEC Fund has committed more than US$22 billion to development projects in over 125 countries with an estimated total project cost of US$187 billion. market or operations risk? Do you have a passion The organization is focused on becoming more innovative to drive development, for measurable achievements in enterprise risk strengthen communities and empower people wherever the need is greatest. management and digital transformation? To help maximize its development impact, the OPEC Fund is looking to engage smart individuals who thrive in an environment that values: integrity, empowerment, We are looking for two senior leaders to work directly innovation, community and excellence. Some of the current job opportunities are with the Chief Risk Officer, embedding the Bank’s listed below: triple-A framework throughout its Institutional Strategy i. Director of Strategic Planning ii. Director of Communication and Vision 2025 for Latin America and the Caribbean. iii. Head of Development Effectiveness Working across functions, setting new standards, iv. Chief Information Security Officer, Corporate Services and combining independence with collaboration, v. Senior Country Manager, Public Sector Operations vi. Head of Editorial and Print you represent the Risk Leader of the Future at the IDB. vii. Economic, Social and Corporate Governance Officer Please visit our careers portal at jobs.iadb.org Successful candidates will be offered an internationally competitive remuneration and benefits package, which includes tax-exempt salary in one of the world’s most liveable cities, dependent children education grant, relocation grant, home leave Deadline to apply: July 26th, 2021. allowance, medical and accident insurance schemes, dependency allowance and staff retirement benefit, as applicable. Interested applicants are invited to visit the OPEC Fund’s website at www.opecfund.org for a complete list of Job opportunities, detailed descriptions of duties and required qualifications, and information on how and by when to apply. Applicants from the OPEC Fund’s member countries are especially encouraged to apply. Due to the expected volume of applications, only short-listed candidates will be contacted. We look forward to receiving your application!

012 Letters The Economist July 3rd 2021 17

blueprint for startups “vying to though it can remove its world leader, no matter how bad he is Proximate rivals follow in Elon Musk’s tyre heritage label and the prestige at the job, is an affront to the The role of Afghanistan’s near tracks” includes a vital ele­ that goes with it. One example former’s victims. And weakens neighbours is missing from ment missing among the three is Dresden’s Elbe Valley, which an awareness of the threats most analysis of what happens you mentioned (finding a had its world heritage status that right­ and left­wing popu­ when America withdraws its starting niche; producing cars removed when a new bridge lists pose on the still fragile troops (“1989 and all that”,June at scale; and creating a sales, was built across the river. Latin American democracies. 12th). Arguably most benign is repair and distribution net­ Ultimately, the choice is en­ josé tomás aguirre edwards Iran. Apart from a dispute over work). The dirty secret behind tirely one for local politicians. Santiago the Herat river, the Iranians Tesla’s success is clean credits. jordi goetstouwers odena seek peaceful relations with Several states now require Van Nellefabriek Your report mentioned Rondô­ their neighbour, wish to pro­ carmakers to sell a fixed per­ Rotterdam nia, a state that is the poster­ tect the Shia, Tajik and Hazara, centage of zero­emission child of deforestation in Brazil. groups, who were victims of vehicles. Since most fall short, In May the state governor Taliban massacres, and sup­ they must buy regulatory The legacy of Brazil’s army signed into law a project ap­ press the drugs trade, which is credits from companies like Although far from being the proved unanimously by the proving devastating to Iran’s Tesla. In fact, without such country’s only problem, Bra­ state assembly (where most urban youth. Iran actually credit sales, Tesla would have zil’s politics are now so disrep­ members have cattle ranches) supported nato’s intervention posted a net loss instead of a utable that it discourages those removing 151,000 hectares in 2001. It is glad to see Amer­ profit in 2020. Profits could who could make a difference from Jaci Parana reserve and ica go, but remains extremely depend less on car sales and from running for office (Spe­ 50,000 hectares from Guajara wary of the Sunni Taliban and more on credit sales. cial report on Brazil, June 5th). Mirim state park. These re­ has no interest in stirring­up françois melese Unless there's a structural serves were created on public disorder. Pacific Grove, California break, 20 years from now I'll be lands decades ago and sup­ Pakistan, unfortunately, reading about the same pro­ ported by projects such as has persuaded itself that blems in The Economist. planafloro (funded by the Afghanistan represents strate­ Clash of cultures Regarding the army, you World Bank). It is just the latest gic depth in its existential I found Bagehot’s column presented the notion of Brazil’s case of the state government struggle with India. This is not revisiting C.P. Snow’s two dictatorship as benign com­ pleasing developers of public so much territorial but in cultures thought­provoking pared with other Latin Amer­ lands, who are clearing them terms of being able to attract (June 19th). In 2007 the Royal ican countries. That is true in for pasture and, eventually, Pashtuns over the Durand Line Society was given £2m ($2.8m) so far as the number of people soyabeans. The best way to to attack India. That it can hold to launch an investment fund it killed were in the low thou­ stop deforestation in the Ama­ this view, while simultaneous­ supporting “deep science” sands. But the legacy of pain zon is for concerned foreign ly carrying out vicious military businesses at their earliest and extends further than that. The companies, governments and campaigns in Waziristan to riskiest stage. The donor said dictatorship probably tortured individuals to stop buying suppress other groups of Pash­ he wanted the elite science tens of thousands, a staggering Brazilian. tun Islamist extremists, community, which forms the amount. And many of Brazil's fabio olmos demonstrates a fundamental society, to “get down from current woes were created or São Paulo ambivalence that has haunted their ivory tower” and do more exacerbated by the dictator­ the 20­year campaign. After to support wealth creation. ship, such as police brutality, the most recent American­ The fund subsequently raised the destruction of the Amazon Top tips Taliban talks, the latter flew more donations from living and a poor education system. As a schoolboy in the 1980s straight to Islamabad to brief fellows of the society than any Yes, Brazil has had time for from Gosforth, Vizwas reg­ Pakistani officials. other initiative and made the civilian leadership to deal ularly digested with glee, so I Besides guaranteeing the several successful invest­ with these problems, but the greatly enjoyed Bagehot’s Afghan government’s finances, ments. Despite this it was damage done by 20 years of Geordie Tory character (June perhaps the West’s most im­ outsourced into oblivion in military power was extensive 12th). Maybe he should extend portant task is drawing these 2014. Maybe there are three and pervasive. The army’s his inspiration into a regular countries into constructive cultures: humanities, sciences reputation as a trusted in­ tips feature. Viz’s top tips often dialogues, applying pressure and trade? stitution is undeserved as it contained handy financial where it can, like Pakistan, and andrew mackintosh has not faced much scrutiny. suggestions that serve me well perhaps easing pressure else­ Founding chief executive pedro franco de campos today, such as changing one’s where, like Iran. Royal Society Enterprise Fund pinto name to avoid the expense of simon diggins Oxford Assistant professor paying for a personalised Defence attaché, Kabul 2008­10 Musashi University car­number plate. Rickmansworth, Hertfordshire Tokyo mr ex19kpn World heritage sites (aka robin hilton) “Dirty pretty things” (June 12th) You encouraged Brazilians to Harpenden, Hertfordshire The secret of Tesla’s success reported on the objections vote Jair Bolsonaro out of You offered a sober reminder from unesco to greening office in 2022. However, the to investors in new electric­ initiatives, such as wind tur­ photograph accompanying Letters are welcome and should be vehicle companies that car­ bines on the hills surrounding your text of a protester lik­ addressed to the Editor at The Economist, The Adelphi Building, making at the turn of the 20th Bath. As the owner of a world ening Mr Bolsonaro to Adolf 1-11 John Adam Street, London wc2n 6ht century was “littered with heritage site, I can assure you Hitler was ill­chosen. Making a Email: [email protected] defunct marques” (“Chasing that unesco does not have the parallel between a genocidal More letters are available at: Economist.com/letters Tesla”, June 5th). Indeed a authority to prohibit anything, dictator and a democratic

012 18 Briefing Covid-19 variants The Economist July 3rd 2021

cautions its reproductive number may be Coats of many colours as high as eight. In mid­June, only two months after it first appeared there, Delta had almost fully displaced Alpha in Eng­ land (see chart 1 on next page). It now threatens the rest of the world (see map on next page). All the variants are more transmissible Evolution has complicated the covid-19 pandemic by providing a growing range of to some extent. Laboratory tests on human viral variants. They make global action yet more urgent airway cells in Petri dishes have shown or much of 2020 the covid­19 virus was, The first of them, now called Alpha, ap­ that Delta replicates more avidly in them Fin genetic terms, a little dull. Early in peared in Britain in September. By Novem­ than do earlier variants. That would seem the pandemic a version of sars­cov­2 that ber scientists sequencing virus samples to suggest that a smaller initial dose is was slightly different from the one origi­ were becoming alarmed at the rate of its needed for an infection to take hold. It also nally sequenced in Wuhan, and spread a spread. Each infection with the original vi­ means that the amount of virus lurking in bit better, came to dominate the picture rus, as sequenced in Wuhan in January people’s airways is probably higher. outside China. But after that it was just a 2020, had been estimated to lead to rough­ Swabs taken from people’s nostrils and case of a letter or two of genetic code ly 2.5 subsequent infections in the absence throats during testing back this notion up. changing here and there. Sometimes such of countermeasures like masks, social dis­ The amount of virus found in samples mutations proved useful for working out tancing and lockdowns. Under the same from people infected with Delta is higher where infections were coming from. But conditions the “reproductive number” for than for other variants. That probably none of them seemed biologically rele­ Alpha was reckoned to be almost twice as means that people are exhaling more virus vant. By September Salim Abdool Karim, a large: four or five. than those infected by an older variant and South African epidemiologist, was begin­ By November Dr Karim was sitting in thus that every encounter between an in­ ning to find his monthly updates on new his office gobsmacked by evidence of a var­ fected and uninfected person poses a mutations “quite boring”. He considered iant similarly studded with mutations, greater risk of transmission. dispensing with them altogether. now called Beta, in South Africa. The Gam­ Vaccination slows this spread down, He was soon glad that he hadn’t. In the ma variant, formally identified only in but it does not stop it. The current vaccines last months of 2020 researchers around 2021, was beginning to make itself felt in do not stop all infections by any version of the world began to see variants of the virus Brazil and would go on to ravage South the virus. Nor do they stop infected people with not just one or two mutations but ten America. Delta, a key factor in the cata­ from passing the virus on, though they do or 20. What was more, some of these new strophic Indian epidemic a few months make it significantly more difficult. People variants turned out to have new proper­ later, raised the transmissibility bar yet vaccinated with Pfizer or AstraZeneca jabs ties—to spread faster, to shrug off antibod­ further. British scientists estimate that in who are subsequently infected with Alpha ies, or to do both. unvaccinated populations not taking pre­ are about half as likely to pass it on as the

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Briefing Covid-19 variants 19

unvaccinated are. tom­tracking app called Zoe suggests that British studies have found Delta to be Rapid turnover 1 Delta is presenting with symptoms closer around 60% more transmissible than Al­ England, share of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to those for the common cold than those pha. They put roughly three­quarters of sequenced, by variant, % seen with other variants. They rarely have that effect down to the fact that it is easier 100 shortness of breath, the hallmark symp­ to catch if you are not vaccinated and about tom of covid­19 with the variants that a quarter to the increased ease with which 75 dominated the first year of the pandemic. Delta infects people who have been vacci­ Others Oddly, vaccinated people who then get in­ nated. Around half of the adults infected in 50 fected tend to sneeze more—which is good a recent Delta outbreak in Israel were fully Alpha for the virus not just because sneezes vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. 25 spread diseases but also because it allows Happily, studies of vaccines made by covid­19 to be mistaken for hayfever. Delta Western companies show them to reduce 0 So far, though, differences in the sever­ deaths and severe cases of the disease in ity of disease caused by the different vari­ JMAMFJDNO people infected with every sort of sars­ ants have been eclipsed by the simple, 2020 202 cov­2. This protection means none of the deadly fact of their high­speed spread. Source: Wellcome Sanger Institute new variants is anything like as potent a There is ample room for that to continue. public­health threat to a largely vaccinated Less than 1% of people in low­income population as the original version was to tions unless lockdowns and similar inter­ countries have had even one dose of vac­ an unvaccinated one. Delta’s increased ventions were established right away (see cine. In sub­Saharan Africa Delta is fuel­ transmissibility, along with relaxed re­ chart 2 on next page). For unvaccinated ling outbreaks that are crushing hospitals strictions on travel and socialising, has populations the situation is much worse. If and killing health­care workers (see Mid­ seen the number of infections and cases in no precautions are taken, a reproductive dle East and Africa section). Britain beginning to climb again. But number of eight produces a far more dra­ Rich countries, including Australia, Ja­ thanks to widespread vaccination, deaths matic crisis in an unvaccinated population pan and South Korea, where the first wave have barely moved. Deaths are, by their na­ than one of two or three does. And last year was largely avoided and vaccination has ture, a lagging indicator of infection; but provided ample evidence of how bad not been a high priority now look highly widespread vaccination of the most vul­ things get even with a lower R. Other vulnerable. By the end of June the risk of nerable is working as hoped. things being equal, a highly transmissible Delta had seen almost half of Australia put The dangers posed to the unvaccinated virus means more deaths and a more acute under lockdown orders. Delta is the domi­ and partially vaccinated mean that there is stress on the health­care system. nant strain in Russia, where a vaccination still a public­health case for keeping infec­ rate of 12% and misinformation­driven tions from spreading. Here, unfortunately, Spikes for speedy spread vaccine scepticism seem set to make its the degree to which variants can evade vac­ Other things may not be equal; the danger spread easy. cine­produced immunity makes things a posed to the unvaccinated by a new variant The variants make vaccination pro­ lot harder than once they seemed. “If there may not be exactly the same as that posed grammes more urgent than ever. But is a certain degree of immune escape, even by older versions. In Britain those infected though they may march on through the al­ if you were to vaccinate 100% of the popu­ with the Alpha variant saw a higher level of phabet for some time to come, there is lation, it’s going to keep coming at you for severe disease than those infected with the some reason to hope that they will not get some period of time,” says Adam Kucharski original version, but no corresponding in­ all that much worse as they do so. They of the London School of Hygiene and Trop­ crease in deaths. may be running out of evolutionary room ical Medicine. Whether Delta does the same is unclear. to manoeuvre. In a population where 60% are im­ Comparisons with other variants in coun­ For a clearer understanding of what is mune, either through vaccination or from tries that can measure such things well are going on, focus on the spike protein that a past bout of covid­19, the introduction of made hard to assess by the large numbers adorns the outer envelope of sars­cov­2 a variant with a reproductive number of of vaccinated people in those populations. particles. You can think of it, as you can of eight would cause a sharp surge in infec­ The picture emerging from a British symp­ any protein, as being like a paper chain in which every link can have one of 20 col­ ours. The gene for spike specifies the se­ Going global quence in which those colours appear in Delta and Delta+ mutations, % of samples, four weeks to June 28th 2021* the protein’s 1,273­link long chain. Muta­ tions in the gene can change the colour of 0 one specific link, add a few new links, or Britain 91% 40 Russia 89% cut some links out. In the Alpha variant six 20 of those links have different colours from 10 those in the Wuhan sequence, and in a cou­ 1 India 9% ple of places a link or two are missing alto­ 0 gether. The Delta spike has five distinctive No data mutations. In reality the links in the chain are 20 Delta mutation detected† different types of amino acid. Each type has subtly different chemical and physical properties. At the time that the chain is created the laws of physics require it to fold up into something more compact. The spe­ cific shape into which it folds is deter­ mined by its unique sequence of amino ac­ Source: GISAID *Or most recent with at least 20 samples sequenced †Virus sequences submitted to GISAID ids, as laid out in the gene. And that shape

012 20 Briefing Covid-19 variants The Economist July 3rd 2021

University, and his colleagues put forward 2 Delta force an argument as to why Delta is both more Modelled share of population infected with covid-19, by reproduction rate of variant, % infectious and better at evading immunity than other variants. It is based on a substi­ In a country with 60% immunity 40 In a country with 0% immunity 40 tution at site 681, which is at the point where, after the rbd meets ace2, the pro­ 30 30 tein is cleft in two. R=8 (Delta variant*) 20 20 Not ai, therefore em R=2.5 (Original strain) Dr Gupta says p681r, helped by two shape­ R=8 (Delta variant*) 10 10 modifying mutations elsewhere, makes it easier for the protein to be cut up and thus R=2.5 (Original strain) get into cells. Its presence also means that, 0 0 once a cell starts producing particles, their 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 spike proteins can get on to the cell’s sur­ Days since outbreak Days since outbreak face pre­cut. That can lead to virus parti­ The Economist Source: SEIR model assuming no interventions, *Upper-bound estimate for reproduction rate cles which are shorn of the rbds which antibodies recognise and ready to fuse underlies all the protein’s future capabili­ called tyrosine there instead, the rbd with any nearby cell. It can also encourage ties. Shape is almost everything in the bound to ace2 more tightly; it turns out infected cells to clump together with oth­ world of proteins. It is through their that the change twists a key part of the rbd ers. Dr Gupta’s lab has found evidence of shapes that proteins recognise each other. round by about 20 degrees, making the fit a these cell clumps in a living model of the It is through changes of shape that they act. bit more snug. Mutations which cause just human respiratory system. Each of the now­familiar protuberances that substitution, known as n501y (or A full validation of this work will re­ on the surface of sars­cov­2 particles is sometimes “Nelly”) subsequently turned quire a detailed picture of the Delta vari­ composed of three copies of the spike pro­ up in the Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants. ant’s structure—something which is not tein slotted together into a “trimer” shaped Another change they spotted, now called yet available. In theory, it should be possi­ a bit like a golf tee (see chart 3). In the cup of e484k (or “Eek”), was found in both Beta ble to predict the shape of a protein using these tees are the virus’s receptor­binding and Gamma. nothing but the sequence of amino acids domains (rbds). Each of the trimer’s con­ Changes to the rbd can also reduce its described by its gene and the laws of phys­ stituent proteins can be open or closed at susceptibility to antibodies. Antibodies al­ ics. Doing so from first principles, though, any given time. When they are open ace2, a so work by recognising shapes, and though is impossible. DeepMind, an ai company protein found on the surface of some hu­ they recognise various other bits of the which is part of Google, has shown that man cells, fits quite nicely into the rbd’s spike protein, notably another region in machine learning can help a lot. But as yet carefully contrived nobbliness. the trimer’s head called the n­terminal do­ its capabilities are best demonstrated on main (ntd), the most effective of them are small single proteins. This approach is not Acey deucey specific to particular aspects of the rbd. much good if the protein is large, anchored The ace2 receptor is the virus’s main tar­ Some changes to the rbd, such as n501y, do in a membrane, and naturally found in a get; it normally attacks only those cells not make it less recognisable to antibodies. dimer or trimer, as spike is. DeepMind has that display it. The act of glomming on to Others, such as e484k, do. Being a lot less not attempted to predict spike’s structure. an ace2 molecule changes the spike pro­ susceptible to some antibodies seems to The best tool for seeing spike’s struc­ tein’s shape, revealing a “cleavage site” help e484k’s possessors to infect people ture in detail is cryo­electron microscopy. which is suited to attack by another pro­ who have been vaccinated. Copies of the protein in question are flash tein on the cell’s surface. As a result the The rbd is not the only part of the spike frozen using liquid nitrogen (hence cryo); spike gets cut in two—which sounds bad protein where mutations matter. In a pre­ once they are immobilised beams of elec­ for the virus, but is in fact the necessary print published on June 22nd Ravindra trons are bounced off them and used to next step in infection. It is only after the Gupta, a molecular virologist at Cambridge build up pictures (hence microscopy). Bing spike is sliced asunder that the membranes of the virus and the cell can merge. 3 Tyler Starr, a researcher at the Fred Intimate intruder Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre in Se­ The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein RBD: Receptor binding domain attle, describes the rbd as a “big, squishy Binds to the ACE2 receptors on the Gene sequence Three identical proteins surface of human cells, letting the virus interface” that mutations can reshape wrapped around each other 484 latch on. Shown open on red protein, quite easily. In 2020 he, Jesse Bloom and Selected N5 1Y closed on others their colleagues sought to examine this mutation NTD sites mutability by making versions of the sars­ cov­2 rbd in which individual amino ac­ NTD: N-terminal domain Supports and stabilises the RBD. ids in the protein paper­chain were re­ Mutations here can loosen up SARS- 484 placed by alternatives with different prop­ RBD neighbouring loops of protein to CoV-2 51 facilitate tighter binding erties. These mutant proteins were then ↑S1 P681R ↑S1 tested to see how well they stuck to ace2; 681 ↓S2 ↓S2 ACE2 those that did best, the researchers rea­ S1/S2 The boundary at which the spike receptor soned, might be mutations that evolution cleaves in half after attaching to a cell. S1 contains the machinery of attachment, Human cell would favour. They were right. S2 lets the virus fuse with the host cell In the original Wuhan genome the 501st position in the spike chain is occupied by an amino acid called asparagine. When the Sources: Martin Hällberg et al., Karolinska Institute; Bing Chen et al. scientists in Seattle put an amino acid

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Briefing Covid-19 variants 21

Chen, who has run a series of cryo­em ex­ sars-cov­2 rbds are too large for such pro­ fection with sars­cov­2 is long lasting, ro­ periments on the spike protein at Harvard, tection. That would seem like a problem bust and multifaceted. Among other is at pains to stress the time, effort and for the virus. But it may be a price worth things, some of the b­cells which produce computer power required to turn thou­ paying if a larger, more open rbd is easier antibodies produce more effective ones sands of pictures of the protein taken from for evolution to reshape. later in the course of infection than earlier every conceivable angle into a three­di­ The reason that Dr Starr thinks evolva­ on. This may be part of the reason why they mensional image which comes close to re­ bility might be a benefit worth paying for is provide better protection against severe solving the positions of every single atom. that, in bats, ace2 is much more diverse disease than they do against infection. But there is no better way to appreciate the than it is in humans. That means viruses It is quite possible, though, that not all changes in the fine details of the protein’s which use the receptors as a target need to vaccines will do so equally well. Hundreds structure brought about by the variants’ be able to adapt the mechanisms by which of millions of doses of two vaccines made different mutations. they do so. The tolerance for mutations by Chinese companies, Sinopharm and Si­ On June 24th Dr Chen’s group published that has made new variants of rbdpossible novac, have been sold to low and middle­ long­awaited structures for the Alpha and in humans may be the “by­product of this income countries; they look like being a Beta spike variants. They show the way in arms race...between virus and bats”. large part of the world’s vaccine supply for which the protein’s complex folding al­ the rest of the year. But there are some lows mutations that are at some distance Avoiding Omega doubts about their efficacy, especially from each other in paper­chain terms to If mutation is comparatively easy, though, against new variants. The original clinical have effects on the overall shape that it it also has its limits. In their experiments trial of the Sinovac vaccine found a lower would be near impossible to predict from last year Dr Starr and his colleagues identi­ efficacy than in any other covid­19 vaccine the sequence alone. A pair of mutations fied changes to the rbd that seemed ad­ trial, just 51%. Studies of the vaccine’s use found called a570d and s982a, for exam­ vantageous but which do not turn up in the in Uruguay and Indonesia have been a ple, act to slightly loosen up the protein’s real world—presumably because real spike great deal more encouraging. But there is structure in Alpha. That makes the rbd proteins cannot contort themselves rising concern in Bahrain, Chile, the Sey­ open up more. The group is now working enough to accommodate them. chelles, Turkey and the uae, all of which on a structure for Delta which might con­ Seeing similar mutations crop up in dif­ have relied on Chinese jabs. The uae and firm Dr Gupta’s insights. ferent variants also suggests that evolution Bahrain are worried enough to have started Studies of this sort help reveal how the is sampling a somewhat limited number of offering a third shot of Pfizer’s vaccine to mutations in the variant spikes work to­ possibilities. “The fact is that you’re start­ people who have already been given two gether. But how did these variants come to ing to see recurring mutations,” says Dr shots of Sinopharm’s. have so many mutations in the first place? Chen. “That would be an indication that Third shots are being looked at by some Mutations are normally expected to crop there are probably not that many places other governments, too, including Brit­ up one at a time; but the named variants that the virus can mutate.” Strains with ain’s. The fact that current vaccines protect each emerged with a whole set of them. radically different ways of becoming more people against severe disease and death That is what has given them sudden and transmissible or evasive may be beyond even when infected by the new variants surprising effects. evolution’s reach. makes the idea that variant­specific vac­ One way in which they could have Another cause for optimism is that cines analogous to seasonal flu jabs will be emerged fully formed is by evolving in spike is not the only part of the process that necessary look less likely. The easier alter­ people with compromised immune sys­ is complex and mutable. The immune sys­ native of offering people who have been tems who had very long drawn out sars- tem is, too. The initial infection is the first vaccinated twice a third shot, though, per­ cov­2 infections. In such cases the virus stage of a protracted struggle in which the haps using one of the other vaccines, has would be able to continue replicating itself immune system has various strategies at advocates. in their bodies again and again, accumu­ its disposal. A study by Jackson Turner of But there is as yet no evidence that it is lating a number of mutations as it did so. the Washington University School of necessary. And third shots pale as a priority The time required for such a process would Medicine and his colleagues which was compared with first and second shots for help explain why the variants only started published in Nature on June 28th showed those who have had neither, and now need to appear towards the end of last year. that the immune response produced by in­ them more than ever. n Studies of five such people have shown that they developed a number of the muta­ tions now seen in variants. Not all the mutations in the variants are in the spike gene, and some of those affect­ ing other proteins will doubtless also prove to have importance. One of Alpha’s mutations appears to give it an advantage when dealing with a non­antibody­using arm of the immune system. Non­spike mutations probably explain why Delta’s symptoms appear different. But spike still dominates the discussion. Its structure is crucial to the vaccines. And it also seems unusually mutable. Dr Starr thinks this mutability may be a consequence of the virus’s origin in bats. He points out that most viruses have bind­ ing domains that cannot tolerate much mutation, and so they evolve ways of hid­ ing them away from pesky antibodies. The

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012 Asia The Economist July 3rd 2021 23

North Korea’s economy men”, who nominally work for the state but function like businessmen. Some Taking back control spent their cash in newly opened coffee shops, cocktail bars and foreign restau­ rants in Pyongyang, the capital. None of this led to any loosening of gov­ ernment control in other areas. Even as money­making was welcomed, border controls were reinforced, prison camps ex­ Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning panded and political crimes ever more he north korean dictator’s love of Combined with pandemic­induced isola­ harshly punished. That hard line contin­ Thigh­end products from evil capitalist tion, the economic effects of re­centralisa­ ues. Over the past few months Mr Kim has countries is well documented. The import tion are likely to be disastrous. taken a renewed interest in people’s priv­ of luxury goods into North Korea has been North Koreans began to set up grey mar­ ate lives, condemning “anti­socialist” ten­ banned by un sanctions since 2006. Yet kets to avoid starving to death when the dencies in areas such as music and fashion Kim Jong Un parades around Pyongyang in public­distribution system collapsed in (which he regards as too heavily influ­ a million­dollar Maybach car, drinks rare the 1990s. Mr Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, enced by the decadent southern neigh­ whiskies and has a magnificent yacht tried to dismantle the grassroots marketi­ bour) and lecturing women on how to look moored off Wonsan, a seaside resort whose sation. Mr Kim mostly let them be. after their husbands and children properly. beaches Donald Trump correctly identified Reforms implemented by Mr Kim in The money men seem to have started to as prime property when the two men held a 2014 gave some farmers and state enter­ worry Mr Kim, too. In 2018, at the height of summit in Singapore three years ago. prises a few freedoms. As long as they paid the regime’s detente with America, it re­ For a while Mr Kim had seemed in­ taxes they were allowed to decide what to voked managers’ overseas trading rights clined to let his subjects have a taste of the produce, set their own prices, trade with and re­established control over export good life, too. He said in 2013 that econom­ the outside world and find their own staff prices. Since then state media have called ic prosperity was just as important as mili­ and suppliers. The reforms legitimised the for more central control over investment tary might. He tolerated grey markets and activities of a new class of donju, or “money and jobs in the name of fighting corrup­ expanded the freedoms of farmers and of tion. They also argue for the restoration of managers of state enterprises. The result state control over the food supply and the → Also in this section was modest economic improvement, both revival of the public distribution system. for the privileged and ordinary people. 24 Stalin v Modi in India Economic journals with ties to the ruling That experiment appears to have been party have published guidance which rein­ 25 A new lease of life for Japan’s sento short­lived. Entrepreneurial freedoms are terprets the reforms of 2014 to eliminate being curtailed. State media and party 25 Schrödinger’s government in Malaysia any market­friendly elements. “Managers economists have returned to the familiar are still supposedly in charge of designing 26 Banyan: Unity in India’s diversity old rhetoric of autarky and central control. products, signing supplier contracts and

012 24 Asia The Economist July 3rd 2021

setting prices, but they have to do it all un­ South Indian politics decision­making. The appointments are der the purview of the state,” says Peter designed to highlight the difference be­ Ward of the University of Vienna. Meet the Dravidian tween Mr Stalin and the pr­obsessed Propaganda organs argue that the prime minister. changes are supposed to prioritise the in­ Stalin That is in keeping with the position Mr terests of the masses over those of money­ Stalin finds himself in: along with Mamata grubbing traders. But there are other expla­ Banerjee and Pinarayi Vijayan, chief minis­ DELHI nations. One is that controlling state enter­ ters of West Bengal and Kerala respectively, Tamil Nadu’s leader offers something prises and substantial amounts of foreign he is the face of a decentralised opposition India’s does not: competence currency gives people power. Mr Kim may to Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp). In be worried that the donju are growing too t was dangerous in the Soviet Union to the absence of any inspiration from the en­ big for their boots. Another is that the re­ Iaccept a seat in Joseph Stalin’s inner cir­ feebled Congress party, it will almost cer­ forms have not improved the economy as cle. Many members ended up imprisoned tainly fall to some sort of coalition of re­ much as hoped, perhaps because the eas­ or executed—though Jeno Varga, his eco­ gional satraps to take on the prime minis­ ing of sanctions that was meant to go with nomic adviser, lived a long and healthy ter in the next general election, in 2024. them never came. The state may be trying life. That Varga was treated gently is a good As a young man with a famous, power­ to get a bigger slice of a shrinking pie. sign for the five superstar economists re­ ful father, Mr Stalin reportedly developed Small traders and donju will probably cently appointed to the economic advisory “a thuggish reputation”, as a leaked Ameri­ resist the attempts to take away their pow­ council of M.K. Stalin, the new chief min­ can diplomatic cable put it, “including al­ ers. Mr Ward believes that marketisation ister of Tamil Nadu, south India’s most leged involvement in multiple sex scan­ has gone too far in most areas to be rolled populous state. dals”. (Mr Stalin has not publicly respond­ back entirely. But even the attempt could Mr Stalin’s father, M. Karunanidhi of ed to the allegations.) That changed during be damaging. Expecting businesses to pro­ the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (dmk), the Emergency of 1975­77, when Indira duce according to state planning rather was a giant of Tamil politics, ruling the Gandhi suspended democracy and impris­ than market demands means resources are state for nearly two decades over five sepa­ oned most of her political opponents, in­ more likely to be misallocated. Opportuni­ rate terms as chief minister. He is said to cluding Mr Stalin. He was beaten brutally ties for innovation will decline too. have picked his son’s name to honour the and one of his comradesdied in custody. The covid­19 pandemic has not helped. passing of the Soviet leader, whose death He emerged with an air of seriousness Except for two brief revivals of trade last was announced a few days after the current and began making investments in his po­ summer and earlier this year, the border chief minister was born. Yet it is to Mr Sta­ litical future. As India’s economy opened has been closed since January 2020. Trad­ lin’s credit that his name may be the least up in the 1990s, he made friends within ers who have tried to import or export interesting thing about him. Chennai’s business community, and even­ goods anyway are punished as “smug­ Start with the newly appointed eco­ tually Karunanidhi made him mayor of the glers”, according to reports by Daily NK, a nomic council. One member, Esther Duflo, city, which is the state capital. With a dyed­ specialist news service in Seoul with won a Nobel prize for her rigorous ap­ black pompadour, white half­sleeved sources in the North. proach to assessing development shirts and traditional veshtis, he started to The economic situation continues to schemes. Two others, Arvind Subrama­ cultivate an image of his own, albeit pious­ deteriorate. Food prices fluctuate wildly nian, India’s former chief economic advis­ ly subordinate to his father’s. and increasing numbers of people are go­ er, and Raghuram Rajan, a former head of Now 68, Mr Stalin remains aloof. Until ing hungry. In June Mr Kim, who has the central bank, both clashed with Naren­ recently he kept undistinguished compa­ shown unusual contrition for his people’s dra Modi, the prime minister, in those ny: party hacks rather than the Tamil intel­ suffering ever since the pandemic began, jobs. The others—S. Narayan, a former fi­ ligentsia whose conversation Karunanidhi admitted that the food situation was nance secretary, and Jean Drèze, a welfare sought out. Mr Stalin is not the personality “tense” but said that the border would re­ economist and activist—have positioned his father was. He does not need to be. The main closed to keep out the virus. This themselves against Mr Modi’s haphazard dmk’s chief rival, aiadmk, managed to week he called a politburo meeting to chas­ hang on to power for years after the death tise and dismiss senior officials who had of its charismatic leader in 2016 by accept­ neglected their pandemic­fighting duties. ing help from the bjp, ascendant in the rest The whole thing appears to be taking a toll of India but detested by Tamils. In the gen­ on the leader. Observers have noted that eral election of 2019, when Mr Modi’s ap­ the usually well­fed despot looked lighter proval rating in most north Indian states during his most recent public appear­ was more than 60%, in Tamil Nadu it stood ances. North Korean state media rolled out at just 2.2%. That put the kiss of death on locals who said they felt “heartbroken” at the aiadmk. Mr Stalin’s dmk won the re­ Mr Kim’s “emaciated” state. cent state election in a landslide. In theory, the dire situation should pro­ “Aware of his own limitations—as char­ vide an opening for re­engagement with ismatic leader, orator, ideologue—he the outside world. South Korea has repeat­ seems to want to go down in history as a edly offered to send food aid and, more re­ man of governance,” says A.R. Venkata­ cently, vaccines. Sung Kim, America’s spe­ chalapathy, a historian. He is pragmatic cial envoy for North Korea, said during a too, retaining the health minister of the de­ visit to Seoul in June that he is willing to feated government on a covid­19 commit­ meet his counterpart “anywhere, anytime, tee. The pandemic has made Tamils grate­ without preconditions”. North Korea has ful for their relatively strong public­health publicly rebuffed all overtures. Mr Kim’s infrastructure. That is one way in which slightly less corpulent appearance sug­ the state distinguishes itself from the rest gests not so much a sense of crisis as that, of the country. Its quietly competent leader as always, he is looking after himself.n And don’t call me Joseph may prove to be another. n

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Asia 25

Malaysian politics Schrödinger’s government

Malaysia’s democracy gets a boost from an unlikely quarter he last time Malaysia’s Parliament Tconvened was in December, when Mu­ hyiddin Yassin, the prime minister, squeaked through a budget with the nar­ rowest of majorities. Since January a state of emergency to combat the covid­19 pan­ demic has given Mr Muhyiddin a conve­ nient excuse to shut down the legislature. The ostensible reason is that many law­ Hygiene and culture makers are old and vulnerable to the vi­ Return to sento rus. The real one is that his shaky coalition may not withstand parliamentary scrutiny. Since the start of the year, multiple defec­ TOKYO tions have left Mr Muhyiddin with Schrö­ Japan’s traditional bathhouses are becoming cool again dinger’s majority—until it can be mea­ isitors leave their clothes and their up. As in lots of Japan’s traditional in­ sured, it both exists and does not. Vworries at the wooden entrance to dustries, many owners resisted change. No wonder then that the prime minis­ Inari­yu, a sento, or public bathhouse, in With an ageing clientele, the equally ter has been reluctant to put a firm date on northern Tokyo. Inside they join the elderly proprietors often decide to call it reconvening Parliament, offering only a parade of bathers ambling beneath a quits. “It’s becoming increasingly diffi­ vague timeline of “September or October”. mural of a snow­capped Mount Fuji. cult for bathhouses to survive just as But on June 16th Sultan Abdullah, the king, While perched on small stools, they bathhouses alone,” says Kuryu Haruka of urged the government to hold a sitting of scrub themselves with soap and rinse off Sento & Neighbourhood, which works to Parliament “as soon as possible”. Separate­ with water poured from cypress­wood preserve old bathhouses. ly, eight of the nine royals among whom buckets. Then they soak together in hot Younger devotees reckon that sento the monarchy rotates issued a statement pools, and the strict hierarchies and stiff must instead focus on fostering their arguing against any extension of the state formalities of Japanese life melt away. To communities, with a contemporary spin. of emergency. Several state assemblies are cool down, they sip jars of chilled milk After taking over Ume­yu, a historic sento planning to meet in August. by the koi pond in the sento’s courtyard. in Kyoto, Minato Sanjiro attracted new Such interventions from Malaysia’s Such scenes, once ubiquitous in clients by hosting concerts and flea monarchs used to be rare. But what with Japanese neighbourhoods, have become markets at the bathhouse and by ad­ the permanently embattled state of Mr rarer in recent decades. In the 1960s there vertising online. His customer base grew Muhyiddin’s government, the endless pol­ were more than 2,500 sentoin Tokyo from 70 people a day to around 250 be­ iticking of opponents hoping to bring it alone. Just over 500 remain. But a new fore the pandemic hit. Whereas as many down and the worsening covid crisis, the generation of sento­philes is working to as 80% of the bathers were once senior king is a growing presence in politics. It keep the baths full for the 21st century. citizens, now some 60% are in their 20s was he, after all, who appointed Mr Muh­ Younger sento-owners hope to revive the and 30s. Inari­yu is building a communi­ yiddin early in 2020 and agreed to declare a bathhouses by adding bars, music and ty space in an adjacent building, which state of emergency in January. In effect the event spaces. Sentohave started to ac­ will function as a lounge for bathers as king is signalling to the prime minister quire a retro cachet among a younger well as a place for communal meals and that he had better get his act together. The crowd. In 2019 the number of sento­goers exhibitions. government’s failure to control the pan­ in Tokyo grew (albeit marginally) for the Others have opted for hipster make­ demic has caused a public backlash on the first time in more than a decade. overs. The third­generation owners of monarchy itself, says Wong Chin Huat, a Japan’s earliest public baths were the 90­year­old Kogane­yu in eastern political scientist at Sunway University attached to Buddhist temples, but the Tokyo have remodelled the venerable near Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s biggest city. sento really took off in the dense, dirty bathhouse; it reopened last year as a Mr Muhyiddin, for his part, is toughing environments of Tokyo and its precursor, sleek modern space with a craft­beer bar it out. He has formed a committee to look Edo. Their primary appeal was practical: and vinyl turntables. into reopening Parliament. The attorney­ even as Tokyo prepared to host the Olym­ Such changes can be divisive. Older general, meanwhile, said that only the cab­ pics in 1964, only around a third of its regulars sometimes find the new bells inet can decide when Parliament meets. homes had bathing facilities. But sento and whistles alienating. Purists worry On June 29th the king summoned the also came to play an important role as that turning sentointo hipster haunts heads of both houses and again “expressed common spaces that bring together will ruin their democratic charm. “If you the view that Parliament should be held as people from different walks of life. go too far in creating a new style, the idea soon as possible” so that “check­and­bal­ As private showers and baths prolifer­ of sento will be destroyed,” says Mr Mina­ ance mechanisms” could function. The ated—at least 98% of homes in Tokyo to. “But if we don’t change, the sento next day, even as Mr Muhyiddin was ad­ now have them—the sentostarted to dry won’t survive.” mitted to hospital with a severe bout of diarrhoea, the pair proposed a sitting be­

012 26 Asia The Economist July 3rd 2021

fore the emergency expires on August 1st. months the government has been involved sponse. The rate of vaccination has been Whenever Parliament eventually sits, it in a lot of monkey business. All these rising steadily in recent weeks. If Mr Muh­ is unlikely to bring down the government. things are currently rumours on WhatsApp yiddin can hang on for a few months more, A motion of no confidence must be accept­ groups,” says James Chin of the University when many more people have been inocu­ ed by the speaker, and the government of Tasmania. But if mps are able to ask un­ lated and the economy has reopened, he is must agree to set aside its business for a comfortable questions, he says, “You can likely to benefit from public goodwill. His vote to take place. Neither is likely to hap­ embarrass the government and pull it approval rating towards the end of April pen. Nor do Malaysians want to see more down in the eyes of the people.” was still a healthy 67%, up from 63% in Jan­ political chaos as they struggle with infec­ The royal intervention may already be uary, according to the Merdeka Centre, a lo­ tions and economic contagion. Instead, showing results. On June 28th Mr Muhyid­ cal pollster. That was before the latest the opposition is likely to position itself as din announced a stimulus package of surge in cases of covid­19. Would things be a crucial democratic check, questioning $36bn targeting small firms and vulnerable better if one of Mr Muhyiddin’s many foes Mr Muhyiddin’s handling of the pandemic people, after mounting criticism of his were prime minister? Most Malaysians are and providing oversight. “The last six government’s inadequate economic re­ not keen to find out. n Banyan Hindustani at heart

Indians of different religions are more alike than they may think n the afternoon of June 29th Zee fied as, 81.7% replied that they are Hindus. God and 79% to do so with absolute ONews, a Hindi­language television If there was a net gain for Hinduism there certainty. Most pray daily (and ask for the channel, aired a sensational exposé. appears to have been none for Islam: the same things), attend houses of worship Against a backdrop of scowling mullahs same 11.2% of Indians who were raised regularly, donate to religious charities, and spiky minarets, a breathless present­ Muslim also say that they retain the same celebrate religious festivals and mark er lauded the brave police of the state of faith now. As for the exciting notion of rites of passage with religious rituals. Uttar Pradesh for busting a ring of for­ “love jihad,” a purported campaign to lure The overlap between Hindus and eign­financed jihadists. Their devilish unwitting Hindu women to marry into Muslims is particularly strong. Exactly mission: to entice vulnerable Indians Islam, Pew’s numbers confirm a drearier equal proportions believe in the evil eye into abandoning their faith. One viewer reality: less than 1% of all marriages in (51%) and in karma (77%), and also agree was so incensed by the report, he took to India are inter­faith. Conversion, in other that women should be stopped from Twitter to suggest that “for such people words, is simply not an issue. marrying out of their faith (67%). Fully mob lynching and ostracising by public Pew’s data show that while Indians 97% of Hindus say they are very proud to should be done”. tend to see their country’s multiplicity of be Indian; so do 95% of Muslims. A good Given the intensity and relentless­ faiths as more of a strength than a weak­ 80% of Hindus say that respect for other ness of messaging that portrays Hindus ness, they also tend to view other religions faiths is part of their own religious belief; as targets of malevolent but vague forces, dimly. An uncomfortable 85% of Indians 79% of Muslims say the same thing. it is not surprising that numerous Indian said that all or most of their friends were Just as strikingly, the report reveals states have passed laws to restrict reli­ of their own faith. Nearly two­thirds of regional differences within faiths that gious conversion. Nor is it surprising respondents said their faith was “very are nearly as wide as between them. that angry mobs do, with grim regularity, different” from the others that the study Animal sacrifice is common among set upon hapless Muslims, or that com­ included, with a majority of Hindus also Hindus in southern India, but rare in the munal riots erupt. It is also unsurprising confessing not to know much about In­ north. Muslims and Hindus alike are far that factual evidence seems unable to dia’s other religions. less observant in the south than in the counter this tide of hate and suspicion. Yet, when asked about their devotional north, and also more open­minded: 40% The makers of Zee News and its like, habits, Indians revealed striking similar­ of Muslims in northern states say they to say nothing of their viewers, might ities. Some 97% professed to believe in personally experienced discrimination consider reading a new report on religion in the months before the survey, more in India from the Pew Research Centre, than twice as many as in the south. an American institution that conducts It seems sad that Indians of all faiths polling around the world. Based on are condemned, by and large, to live in face­to­face interviews with some silos among their co­religionists. Per­ 30,000 people across the country in 17 haps it would help if those in power languages, the 232­page study is the most emphasised what they hold in common extensive exploration of Indian attitudes rather than stress divisions. Aside from to religion ever undertaken. While the absorbing the facts laid out in this pene­ data confirm many common under­ trating new survey, they would do well to standings, such as that Indians are listen to the advice of a wise fellow Indi­ broadly tolerant of other faiths, yet high­ an: “Whoever praises their own religion, ly compartmentalised inside their own, due to excessive devotion, and con­ it blows apart plenty of myths. demns others with the thought, ‘Let me One of these is the conversion bogey. glorify my own faith,’ only harms his Asked what religion they were raised in, own religion.” The author of those 81.6% of the Pew study’s respondents words: Ashoka, a Hindu convert to Bud­ said Hindu. Asked what they now identi­ dhism, who unified India in 260bc.

012 China The Economist July 3rd 2021 27

The Chinese navy also difficult to keep a carrier safe from missiles and submarines, and to integrate Carry that weight one into a “strike group” of warships. “It’s taken us over 100 years to get that right,” noted an American admiral in September. China hopes to be quicker. There are signs that it is upping the tempo. Last year the navy put both of its carriers to sea at the same time. In April the China has big plans for its aircraft-carriers. It is fast learning how to use them Liaoning sailed through the Miyako Strait, iangnan shipyard lies on an alluvial is­ China got into the carrier game by an south of the Japanese island of Okinawa; Jland at the mouth of the Yangzi river. It unusual route. In 1985 it bought a clapped­ exercised near Taiwan and in the South has grown rapidly since it moved there out Australian carrier for scrap, then spent China Sea; and returned the same way. Its from nearby Shanghai in 2009, churning years studying its design and putting its escorts included the Renhai­class destroy­ out destroyers, icebreakers and landing deck ashore for flying practice. Thirteen er, one of the world’s most capable ships of craft for the Chinese navy. The jewel in its years later Chinese investors purchased a its kind, as well as a Fuyu­class support crown is under construction. China is say­ half­built Soviet carrier and towed it from vessel, which can replenish carrier strike­ ing little about it, but satellite imagery re­ Ukraine to China, purportedly to turn it in­ groups far from home. veals a near­complete flight deck in a cor­ to a floating casino. Instead it was refur­ Some Western analysts are impressed ner of the yard where, less than 15 years bished by the navy and commissioned in by China’s progress. “Considering what ago, there was only farmland. 2012 as the Liaoning. That helped China to they had to start with, they’ve done a very For now, the vessel­to­be is blandly build a knock­off, the Shandong, which was good job,” says Mark Montgomery, a retired known to military analysts as the Type 003. commissioned in December 2019 and has American rear­admiral who commanded a It will be China’s second domestically built been undergoing sea trials. carrier strike­group in the Pacific. China aircraft­carrier and the largest ship that The Type 003 could be launched this had little to go on, he says, other than “His­ has ever served in the Chinese fleet. Ex­ year, state media say. But building carriers tory Channel documentaries” and occa­ perts at the Centre for Strategic and Inter­ is not the same as sailing them. Flying sional glimpses of American carriers— national Studies (csis), a think­tank in planes off wobbly decks is hard. In Ameri­ back in friendlier times when Chinese sail­ Washington, have analysed satellite pic­ ca, thousands of jets and pilots were lost in ors were given tours of American ships. tures such as the one above, which was tak­ the formative years of naval aviation. It is Even so, a carrier designed in the early en in June by Planet Labs, an American 1980s, and another based on it, hardly rep­ firm. They conclude that the ship will be resent the cutting­edge of sea power. “I → Also in this section about as long as New York’s Chrysler Build­ don’t worry from a us Navy point of view,” ing is high: about 320 metres. She will 28 The anti-struggle culture says Mr Montgomery. “These are just tar­ mark another leap forward in China’s ad­ gets for our submarines.” 30 Chaguan: The party’s centenary vance as a naval power. That is where the Type 003 comes in.

012 28 China The Economist July 3rd 2021

csis reckons she is already 10 metres lon­ ty. But, in peacetime, carriers are potent ten, their cats) lying in bed. More than 60% ger than her predecessors. She is likely to symbols of power. America’s dispatch of of over 240,000 respondents to a poll on be the world’s largest non­American carri­ two towards the Taiwan Strait during an es­ Weibo, a Twitter­like platform, said tang­ er for many years, says Rick Joe, who stud­ calation of cross­strait tension in 1996 is ping was their idea of the good life. On the ies China’s armed forces, and “perhaps the seared in the memory of Chinese leaders. site, messages with the hashtag “illustra­ most capable conventionally powered car­ And carriers could help China to defeat a tions of young people lying flat at home” rier of its era”. She will have a larger deck weaker adversary. The Liaoning’s promi­ have attracted about 200m views. and room for more jets than the Shandong’s nent foray into the South China Sea hints at Tangping describes a longing to escape complement of around two dozen. things to come. Carriers extend a protec­ the pressures of modern life in China, More important than the ship’s size is tive aerial bubble over the ships around where young people are expected to work the way that planes will take off from her. them. That allows their whole flotilla to pa­ long hours, buy property, get married and The runways of both the Liaoning and the trol farther with confidence. The future air have children. Many people in their 20s Shandong, like those of Britain’s newest wing of the Type 003 will be almost as large and 30s grumble that hard work no longer carriers, are curved at their ends like ski as the entire air force of the Philippines. rewards them with a better quality of life. jumps, which limits take­off weight. The And China’s sallies need not be con­ They have adopted an academic term, nei- Type 003 is expected to have a catapult, a fined to the Pacific—a large pier added this juan or “involution”, to describe how extra system currently used only by America and year to China’s naval base in the Red Sea input no longer yields more output. Unlike France. This would allow her to launch port­state of Djibouti will allow Chinese their parents, who enjoyed a booming planes with more fuel and weapons—and carriers to dock there and thus make regu­ economy, they feel that society is stagnat­ not just fighter jets. The existing carriers lar trips to the Indian Ocean. The Type 003 ing and inequality growing. rely largely on land­based aircraft for vital may be coming to a port near you. n Other ways of expressing this mood tasks such as monitoring by airborne ra­ have also become common. One is sang, or dar, anti­submarine warfare and aerial re­ “dejected”: many young people now talk of fuelling. The Type 003 could accommodate Youth culture the spread of a “sang culture” in China. such planes, and thus venture farther. They refer to “Buddhist youth”, meaning The Chinese navy does not plan to stop Giving up, lying those who are never disappointed since there. It is widely assumed that the Type they want nothing. Some young Chinese 003’s successor is being planned. It may be down call themselves chives, harvested or ex­ nuclear­powered. That would mark ploited by the government and firms. As another step­change in capability. More they point out online, it is difficult to har­ HONG KONG fuel could be carried for planes, rather than vest chives when they are lying flat. Some young Chinese are fed up and for propulsion. The absence of a gas tur­ Such ideas are at odds with the Commu­ opting out of the rat race bine would leave more room for weapons nist Party’s rhetoric. Its leader, Xi Jinping, and cargo. A nuclear reactor could also wo vegetarian meals each day. A likes the word “struggle”. In 2019 an official power more potent catapults—ones that Tmonthly budget of 200 yuan ($30). summary of a speech he gave to young offi­ use electromagnetic induction motors, Working just one or two months a year. In cials included more than 50 mentions of it. rather than steam—and, eventually, high­ April an internet user posted this brief de­ Struggle is an art, he told them. “We must energy lasers for shooting down missiles. scription of his simple, stress­free life. He be good at struggle.” Tangping, therefore, Mastering these technologies and described his philosophy as tangping, or conveys a whiff of dissent. It hints at rejec­ learning the craft of conducting high­in­ “lying flat”. “I can be like Diogenes, who tion of a political culture that encourages tensity air operations at sea will take years. slept in his wine cask in the sun,” he wrote. people to throw their all into work, for the American carriers can launch and recover He included a photo of himself doing an good of the country. A popular online com­ waves of 10­12 aircraft more than a dozen appropriate job: playing a corpse in a film. ment suggested that tangping had come to times a day. The Chinese navy is far from The post went viral. On social media, mean opting out, with defiance: “Lying flat matching this pace. Its planes are lightly people showed their approval of tangping is standing up, horizontally. Lying flat is armed, even compared with European by sharing pictures of themselves (and, of­ having a backbone.” counterparts, says Alessio Patalano of State media have been swift to weigh in. King’s College London. “I’ve yet to see a “The only way to ensure a happy life is if single picture of a Chinese plane taking off one works hard,” said a commentary in one from a deck with a full payload,” he says. newspaper. Lying flat is “not only unjust Yet the Chinese navy will get plenty of but also shameful”, it added. An academic practice. America’s Indo­Pacific Command from Tsinghua, an elite university in Bei­ suggests that China will operate four carri­ jing, described tangping as “an extremely ers by 2025. British defence intelligence irresponsible attitude that not only disap­ reckons that it may have as many as five by points one’s parents but also hundreds of 2030. The expert consensus is that China millions of taxpayers”. Posts about his re­ plans eventually to build a fleet of some­ marks have been viewed more than 400m where between six and ten. That would put times on Weibo. The platform still allows it within spitting distance of America’s tangping­related discussions. But Douban, fleet of 11, the world’s largest. another social­media site, has banned sev­ American and Chinese carriers are un­ eral online groups promoting the concept. likely to be pitted against one another at Only one—for those who have returned to close quarters. They would be targeted by the rat race—remains accessible: The missiles launched from hundreds if not Standing Up After Lying Flat Mutual Sup­ thousands of kilometres away, from sea or port Alliance. A search on Taobao, an e­ land, long before their jets would clash. commerce platform, for t­shirts with mes­ “China would not deploy its carriers in the sages about lying flat yields only items dis­ front line,” says Hu Bo of Peking Universi­ playing Communist Party slogans. n

012 012 30 China The Economist July 3rd 2021

Chaguan It works until it doesn’t

Citizens cheer the Communist Party’s 100th birthday, but its legitimacy rests on narrow pillars ernments earn and keep the consent of the governed, whether through elections or under the continuous scrutiny of a free press, opposition parties and an independent judiciary. The party argues that it deserves to rule because of the impressive things that it does, and that it is held to account by its own self­discipline. Chinese claims to performance legitimacy, to use the jargon of political scientists, are often strikingly detailed, and not especially ideological. All summer, party organs have praised Mr Xi for providing better education, more stable and satisfactory in­ comes, more reliable social­security payments, higher­quality medical services, more comfortable housing and a more beautiful environment. This focus on real­world problem­solving is called proof that “socialist democracy”, meaning rule by unelected tech­ nocrats, is more “authentic” than Western political systems. As Chinese officials tell it, Western politicians only worry about some people’s interests every few years at election time. Though Mr Xi is an austere authoritarian, sternly demanding hard work, discipline, and sacrifice from party members and the masses alike, he also has a populist side. He and his advisers are careful to buttress dry lists of achievements with emotive stories about heroic party workers, including those who died as martyrs in battle or while serving in harsh and dangerous places. A cente­ or all who believe that people are endowed with inalienable nary gala at the Olympic stadium in Beijing featured a series of Frights including life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, and elaborate mini­dramas, such as one depicting white­coated doc­ that just governments derive their powers from the consent of the tors and nurses battling covid­19. governed, it was alarming to hear the loud applause and cheers When Chaguan was first posted to Beijing as a reporter, 23 years that greeted Xi Jinping on July 1st, the 100th anniversary of the ago, officials were somewhat defensive about one­party rule. They Communist Party. Speaking at Tiananmen Square, China’s leader described their political system as a work in progress, befitting a had just pledged that any foreigner who tried to bully China would China that was still poor. The party could be hard to spot as re­ “dash their heads against a Great Wall of steel, forged from the formist leaders wooed foreign businesspeople. Visiting bigwigs flesh and blood of over 1.4bn Chinese people”. The party crushes would often meet government ministers, city mayors and univer­ individual liberties with despotic ruthlessness. Yet its leaders are sity presidents, rather than each institution’s real boss, its party sure that they govern with the consent of the vast majority. As a re­ secretary. Now senior officials openly talk of their faith in the par­ sult they claim to enjoy as much legitimacy as any democracy. ty like priests describing a vocation. “East, west, south, north and It would be dangerous complacency to dismiss the cheering in centre; the party leads everything,” says Mr Xi. the square as an empty show. True, the crowd was hand­picked Ahead of the anniversary Mr Xi has toured revolutionary sites and bused in hours ahead of Mr Xi’s arrival. Almost all details of and urged study of the party’s history. That does not include Mao­ the event were kept secret beforehand. But as often with Chinese era cruelties, which have been largely omitted from centenary­ officials’ paranoia, it was probably unnecessary. Without prompt­ year reflections. People who insist on remembering the millions ing, lots of ordinary people express sincere admiration for Mr Xi of deaths caused by the party’s worst mistakes risk being accused and would cheer him in person if given the chance. of “historical nihilism”, or the crime of slandering party heroes. The party sees lots of promising forces coming together. After 40 years of economic, technological and military progress, it is When the majority falls silent ready to take credit for being an indispensable source of wisdom, The party is increasingly unwilling to accept any principled criti­ guiding China’s rise. At the same time, a crisis of confidence grips cism of its 21st­century autocracy, which it describes as the moral much of the democratic world. Officials delight in comparing equal of any democracy. In truth, that claim is untested. For one their autocracy with what they portray as Western disarray. They thing, censors, propagandists and security agencies devote so like to point at America, mocking it as a hellhole of covid­19 much effort to hiding errors and silencing critics that it is not pos­ deaths, racist policing, gun violence and partisan paralysis. sible to say public consent is fully informed. For another, every China’s leaders are, in effect, trying to take established defini­ political and economic system eventually makes mistakes that are tions of representative government and redefine them to suit the too big to conceal, such as a financial crash or defeat in war. party. Where America’s Declaration of Independence called for As plenty of Western experts could attest, reputations for com­ free men to pursue happiness as each saw fit, China’s media say petence are powerful assets right up until they are not. China has the party seeks “happiness for the people”—an unabashedly top­ avoided a grave, society­shaking crisis since the Tiananmen down endeavour. Rather than echo Abraham Lincoln’s call for gov­ Square protests of 1989. But one will come and, at that point, other ernment of, by and for the people, party mouthpieces praise Mr Xi forms of legitimacy will be needed. Even the party’s focus on serv­ as a “people’s leader” whose years of selfless service led him to ing majority interests is a problem. It involves trampling on “people­centred development thinking” that focuses on “the fun­ groups that are millions strong, from Muslims in Xinjiang to damental interests of the overwhelming majority”. democrats in Hong Kong. At 100 years old, this remains a party to Western political systems devote much thought to how gov­ which not all are invited. n

012 United States The Economist July 3rd 2021 31

Republicans and elections fingerprints (that might prove the use of machine printing). After Merrick Garland, Razing Arizona the attorney-general, warned that these “abnormal post-election audit methodolo- gies” may “undermine public confidence in our democracy”, Mark Brnovich, Arizo- na’s Republican attorney-general, shot PHOENIX back, claiming that this showed “an alarm- The hair-raising election audit in Maricopa County points to how election ing disdain for state sovereignty”. administration is being undermined in response to a phantom threat It is tempting to see the Arizona audit as rom the outside, the vast edifice looks been shambolic. A previously obscure a sideshow, nothing more than a monu- Fdeserted and unremarkable. The only company called Cyber Ninjas was contract- ment to the intransigence and inanity of indications of what is unfolding inside the ed to conduct this audit—despite never Kelli Ward, the chair of the state party, who Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum are having done one before. The chief execu- has been chasing celebrity and fundraising the signs posted in a barren parking lot tive of the ninjas is a man called Doug Lo- over the furore. In fact it is a forewarning of outside, sporting slogans like “Audit the gan who, before he deleted his Twitter ac- the Republican Party to come. Six months votes” and “Board of Supervisors are ene- count, often posted about what he saw as after the spectacle of a Trump-supporting mies of the nation”. Even on an oppressive- the rampant fraud in the presidential elec- mob overrunning the Capitol in a bid to ly scorching day in Phoenix, when tem- tion that cost Mr Trump his victory. “stop the steal”—and despite no credible peratures reached 117°F (47°C), a diligent The audit is being privately financed; evidence emerging of widespread voter and solitary supporter of President Donald its donors are undisclosed. The volunteers fraud—the party apparatus remains en- Trump sat guard next to a cooler of water tabulating the ballots are searching for thralled by the idea that the last election bottles under a pitched shade. bamboo fibres (to test the theory that thou- was illegitimate, that Democrats win by Inside the Coliseum, something seri- sands of ballots were flown in from an cheating and that election rules must be ous is unfolding: a partisan review of all Asian country) and mail-in ballots without changed to guard against future steals. the ballots cast in Maricopa County (which The audit is inspiring Republican legis- includes Phoenix and 61% of all the state’s lators in other states. Rules governing the voters in 2020). Despite the fact that two → Also in this section previously sleepy arenas of election certifi- audits have already been completed, reaf- cation are being rewritten; supporters of 34 Border disorder firming that Joe Biden won 45,000 more Mr Trump’s new Lost Cause are running to votes than Mr Trump, the Republican-con- 35 UFOs: the truth, revealed! be election administrators. More than 200 trolled state Senate used its subpoena pow- bills modifying election rules in states 36 Lexington: Fogged­off in Maine er to instigate yet another. This one has have been filed this year; 24 have already

012 32 United States The Economist July 3rd 2021

been enacted in law. Political attention has Election integrity “and critical race the­ shifted elsewhere, however, as Mr Biden The centre cannot hold ory are the two main issues” in the elec­ makes a start on his presidency while Mr United States, Nov 2020, % agreeing tions to come, argues Anthony Kern, a for­ Trump remains muzzled on social media. mer Arizona state representative who has Democrats Total Republicans Democrats are focused more on what they championed the audit. “I’m not going to call “voter suppression” laws (and what Re­ Trump’s challenge was 806040200 100 say who because I don’t have proof, but I do publicans call “election integrity” mea­ appropriate think there’s an organised effort to thwart sures). This attitude misses an alarming Vote-by-mail increases our elections.” Mr Kern was removed from development: that the probability of a seri­ vote fraud counting the votes after local media raised ous constitutional and democratic crisis in Not confident in questions about his impartiality, given national vote count elections to come may have actually in­ that he was an unsuccessful candidate in creased since Mr Trump left office. A lot of vote-by-mail one of the races on the ballot and attended fraud To understand how this is happening, Mr Trump’s rally on January 6th that pre­ consider the various loci of power in the Trump really won ceded the storming of the Capitol. (Mr Kern Republican Party. There is Mr Trump, the Biden is not the maintains he never entered the building, king in exile, of course, but also the activist legitimate president but decamped to a nearby flat for coffee.) primary base, the donor class, the elected Not important for Trump “My opinion is that the election should elites and the conservative­media ecosys­ to acknowledge Biden have never been certified. Because...half tem. More than ever before, this system Trump should never the nation—and half the system—thought represents a hermetically sealed loop, in concede that there were some shenanigans going which alternative facts and outright con­ Not confident your vote on.”That is because the elections were fun­ counted spiracies can flourish unchallenged. Just damentally flawed, he says. “We’ve already States should override two decades ago, 47% of Republicans trust­ popular vote got issues of illegals voting, we’ve got is­ ed the mainstream media, according to sues of dead people voting, we’ve got is­ Source: Democracy Fund Voter Study Group Gallup, a pollster. Today, only 10% do. sues of numerous ballots going to vacant There is of course a parallel system within lots.” The basic question election authori­ the Democratic Party, though it does not Arizona shows what this looks like in ties resistant to the audit have to answer is, seem (yet) to have resulted in a widespread practice. The chief justification for the au­ “What are you hiding? So, I mean, why not? rejection of unfavourable election results. dit is voter concerns about election integri­ Why wouldn’t anybody want to look and By contrast, the various blocs that make ty—which were manufactured by Mr see—whether you’re left or right.” up the contemporary Republican Party Trump and subsequently amplified by have slipped into a destructive, destabilis­ conservative media and elected officials. Peering into the canyon ing equilibrium. Dissenters are ejected The organisers of the audit wished at first Beyond Arizona, Republican state legisla­ from the party. Secretly sceptical elites ac­ to keep the mainstream press away from it, tors back from their haj are hoping to start quiesce. William Barr, Mr Trump’s former though One America News (oan), a Trump­ similar partisan audits. Top Republicans in attorney­general, recently said that Mitch ist broadcaster, has been given floor ac­ Georgia—the state where Mr Trump unsuc­ McConnell, the Republican leader in the cess. A broadcast from June 18th offered the cessfully tried to pressure Brad Raffen­ Senate, was privately urging him to refute following monologue: sperger, the Republican secretary of state, the president’s fraud allegations from mid­ to “find 11,780 votes”—are seeking to emu­ November even as he was publicly doing We know there’s a very real possibility that late the process despite the three recounts, nothing to counter them. Kevin McCarthy, there were actually instead preprinted bal­ including one audit, already conducted. A lots filled in not by hand but by machine—as the Republican leader in the House, had a well as the possibility that mail­in ballots state judge ruled that a group alleging moment of conscience after the attack on weren’t actually mailed in. And how would fraud could inspect 147,000 absentee bal­ the Capitol, saying that the president we know that? If there aren’t folds, of course. lots in Fulton County, which includes At­ “bears responsibility”. Weeks later, he was And, again, there’s also the additional pos­ lanta (but the lawsuit is pending). taking an ingratiating mission to Mar­a­ sibility that certain ballots were only Nearly six months after Mr Trump nar­ Lago, the ex­president’s court. marked for the presidential race and no oth­ rowly lost Wisconsin, the Republican Sceptical media coverage and failed er candidate downballot, which, if a pattern speaker of the state House announced that lawsuits alleging fraud, meanwhile, are emerges, could be indicative of fraud, as we he had hired three ex­cops to investigate taken as evidence of deeper conspiracy. saw happen in other cases across the coun­ allegations of double voting and other ir­ try. As of course those perpetrating the fraud That is why, despite dozens of unsuccess­ would have to find a way to rapidly make up regularities. There are efforts in Michigan ful court challenges, a remarkable majority for President Trump’s insurmountable lead. (supported by Mr Logan, the chief cyber of Republicans still believe that the elec­ ninja) to audit results in some counties on tion of Mr Biden was illegitimate—a share The on­air personalities reporting on the basis of alleged voting­machine fail­ largely unmoved since the initial claims of the audit have launched Voices and Votes, ures. Some Republicans in Pennsylvania’s fraud and even after the attempted insur­ a non­profit group which raises money to Senate are agitating for an audit of their rection at the Capitol in January. Perhaps send delegations of Republican lawmakers own. Tom Wolf, the state’s Democratic go­ most alarmingly, 46% of Trump supporters from other states to tour the audit. “Arizo­ vernor, retorted that this would be “a tax­ thought it appropriate for Republican leg­ na is Mecca right now, and they’re doing payer­funded disinformation campaign islators to overturn the results in states their pilgrimage,” says Jeff Flake, a former and a disgrace to democracy”. won by Mr Biden, according to a recent stu­ Republican senator from the state who fell To the most committed loyalists, these dy conducted by Lee Drutman, a political out of favour with the party for his loud ob­ efforts will surely amount to something. scientist. “We need to regard what's hap­ jections to Mr Trump’s norm­breaking. “It “Arizona is the first domino that will fall pening now as epistemic warfare by some would be laughable if it weren’t so danger­ and then other states will look into irregu­ Americans on other Americans,” says Jona­ ous, that this is now seen as a template for larities, abnormalities, mistakes and po­ than Rauch of the Brookings Institution. other states to challenge their own elec­ tentially outright fraud that happened in “The fever did not break with Trump's loss. tions,” he adds. Delegations from at least 13 their states as well,” Ms Ward, the head of The fever is now being institutionalised.” states are thought to have visited Arizona. the state party, told Newsmax, a right­wing

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 United States 33

outlet. Her phrasing is a reference to the “back­stabbing” Mr Raffensperger in order theory, adhered to by the qAnon crowd, Things fall apart “to stop Democrats before they rig and ruin that states will reverse their election re­ United States, “confident the election will be/was our democracy for ever”. sults months after the election and rein­ conducted fairly and accurately”, % agreeing In a narrowly divided country, it does state Mr Trump as president, perhaps by as 100 not take much to throw an entire election early as August. Mr Trump has closely fol­ Presidential election into dispute. The American system has lowed the progress of the audit, cheering Democrats 80 many embedded protections against on the efforts to instigate versions in other Total democratic crisis. Most of these were im­ 60 states, while reportedly keeping in touch plicit: the decency of the losing candidate, with Christina Bobb, the oan anchor (and 40 the losing party and their boosters, who Republicans former Trump­administration official) re­ would not act to endanger the democratic porting on the Arizona audit. 20 transition. That has proved less stable than In reality these spectacles will not 0 was thought. Not only did Mr Trump claim change the outcome of the last election. fraud, he also found support from 18 Re­ Jul Aug OctSep Nov Dec Jan “There’s nothing that we’ve seen that publican state attorneys­general who 2020 202 would give any credibility to the outcome joined a lawsuit to, in effect, not count four Source: Democracy Fund+ UCLA Nationscape of this audit,” says Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s of Mr Biden’s narrow victories. More than Democratic secretary of state, whose office 100 Republicans in the House of Represen­ oversees state elections. “The goal is not to Ms Hobbs in Arizona is a target of legisla­ tatives voted against certifying election re­ restore confidence or verify anything. It’s tion that aims to take away her authority sults on January 6th, in what was previous­ to continue to increase the doubt and un­ over state election procedures; another bill ly a merely ceremonial procedure. dermine the integrity of our elections.” But would take away her office’s authority to That has left only explicit protections: their spread will have other effects: keep­ defend state election laws in court until the impartiality of election administrators ing election integrity at the top of the Re­ 2023, when her term happens to expire. and courts. The first of these is now under publican agenda secures Mr Trump’s hold Election administration and certifica­ threat. The courts held their own in 2020, over the party. And it encourages future tion used to be a folksy corner of the Amer­ even under Trump­appointed judges, and election­meddling. ican experiment. Now it is the latest to be perhaps they will in the future. But Ameri­ Inability to get over the loss of Mr captured by extreme polarisation. In Re­ can democracy, like aeroplanes, once had Trump has inspired a fire­hose of election­ publican primary contests to be a secretary several redundant systems for ensuring related legislation in states where Republi­ of state, fealty to the myth of the stolen the safety and integrity of its elections and cans are in charge. In Georgia, state offi­ election is becoming a litmus test. transitions. It is now getting dangerously cials now have the authority to remove In Arizona there are three declared can­ close to having only one. county election officials. In Texas, an elec­ didates: Shawnna Bolick, best known for Democrats, for their part, are more con­ tions bill that was thwarted when Demo­ sponsoring a bill that would allow the state cerned about voter suppression, and have crats walked out of the state legislature is legislature to overturn election results in largely missed this bigger threat. There is likely to be resurrected in a coming special the state at any time; Mark Finchem, who indeed some reason to worry. The Republi­ session. It would make it easier to sue to attended the riot at the Capitol and is a firm can Party’s acceptance of Mr Trump’s con­ overturn election results in counties by re­ adherent of the “stop the steal movement”; spiracy has led to a swathe of changes to quiring evidence that more illegal ballots and Michelle Ugenti­Rita, a comparative election rules across the country—limiting were cast than the margin of victory—us­ moderate who is nevertheless also pro­au­ early voting, requiring photo identifica­ ing only a standard of the “preponderance dit. Kristina Karamo, who came to promi­ tion to cast ballots and reducing the num­ of the evidence” rather than “reasonable nence on right­wing media outlets for her ber of drop boxes. Republicans justify doubt”. Arkansas has recently enacted leg­ claims of witnessing voter fraud in Michi­ these changes by citing voter concerns ov­ islation granting its state elections board, gan, is now running to be the secretary of er the fraud that has proved so difficult to which is dominated by Republicans, pow­ state in order “to remove corruption from substantiate. Democrats fear that this is ers over county election boards, allowing our elections”. Jody Hice, a Republican mere pretext to securing partisan advan­ partisans “to oversee or even undo election congressman, is aiming to replace the tage, with some labelling it, overheatedly, results”, warns the States United Democra­ the new Jim Crow. cy Centre, a non­partisan group. There is no doubt that some of these The power of elected secretaries of changes are being made in bad faith. Texas state, who are normally the chief election may soon pass rules that bar early voting administrators, is also being wrenched before 1pm on Sundays, which seems to be away. In Georgia, the obstreperous secre­ directly aimed at disrupting the practice of tary of state, in addition to being censured “souls to the polls”, in which black voters by his party on June 5th, has been stripped head to the ballot box directly after church. of his position as chairman of the election The state may also outlaw two new voting board. Republicans in Texas have proposed methods, drive­through and all­day vot­ legislation threatening criminal penalties ing, established in Houston to increase for election administrators for soliciting turnout during the covid­19 pandemic. mail­in ballot applications. In Wisconsin, But so far these changes have not made correcting small defects in mail­in ballots much difference. A recent study of voter­id would become illegal for clerks. laws from 2008 to 2018 published in the In Kansas, the authority to modify elec­ Quarterly Journal of Economics found little tion procedures has been taken away from evidence of actual disenfranchisement— the governor (a Democrat) by the Republi­ turnout, including of minorities, remains can state legislature. The legislature has al­ flat after other effects are controlled for. so usurped the secretary of state’s ability to That corroborates much of the political sci­ contest election lawsuits filed in courts. Chasing shadows ence on this subject. One randomised ex­

012 34 United States The Economist July 3rd 2021

periment found that notifying voters of id Title 42 requirements actually increased turnout modestly. A commanding majority of Border disorder Americans, including a majority of Demo­ cratic voters, support such requirements. And yet this is the issue that most Democrats in Congress have focused their DALLAS attention on. They argue that democracy A Trump-era public-health order that can be saved only by the passage of a bill shut the border may soon be lifted called hr1. This is a catch­all bill that tries to pre­empt some of the state­level chang­ hey were rallying like it was 2016. On es that allegedly suppress voting, but that TJune 30th Donald Trump and the gover­ also devotes much of its attention to ancil­ nor of Texas, Greg Abbott, held a “security lary concerns such as a public­financing briefing” in south Texas to talk about the scheme for election campaigns. surge in migrants at the border and the There is an Orwellian circularity to need to build a wall—this time financed by what is happening with election adminis­ private donations and state funds. Mr tration. In the name of removing doubt, Trump’s visit, streamed on Facebook Live much more of it will be sown. In the name and covered loyally by Fox News, was a of removing interference in the election Middle-age mutant cyber ninjas throwback to a different era, when hard­ system, more of it will be allowed. To en­ line immigration policies ruled the day. sure public trust in fair counting of ballots, voters and expected challenges.” President Joe Biden has promised a ever more will be treated as inherently sus­ “It’s a vicious loop, because these elect­ more tolerant, humane approach to immi­ pect. Fear of fraud is highly correlated with ed officials will say ‘I’m just responding to gration. Since entering office, he has re­ results and unrelated to actual evidence. my constituents’, but their constituents versed some of Mr Trump’s restrictive bor­ That is a dangerous dynamic for one of the are responding to them,” says Mr Flake, the der policies, such as a rule limiting asylum two major parties in the world’s most po­ former senator from Arizona who has been claims from victims of domestic violence werful democracy to have fallen into. in the political wilderness since his promi­ and gangs. Yet to the dismay of human­ Some cracks could be repaired immedi­ nent break with Trumpism. “What’s really rights groups and immigration advocates, ately. The Electoral Count Act, a poorly troubling is that too few elected officials he has kept in place Mr Trump’s most hard­ written law from 1887 governing certifica­ are willing to take a stand.” line policy of all, known as “Title 42”, tion in Congress, was intended for ceremo­ which, in effect, sealed America’s borders nial use. It could be modified to make fed­ Sand in their eyes to new arrivals. He is under increasing eral overturning of legitimate state elec­ Bill Gates, a member of the Maricopa pressure to end it. tions harder. Paper­ballot backups could County Board of Supervisors (and one of “Title 42” is an obscure provision of a be required nationwide. And perhaps the the “enemies of the people” blasted out­ 77­year­old public­health law, which al­ Republicans who emerge victorious from side the Coliseum), is a lonely example. A lows the surgeon­general to block the en­ the upcoming primaries will prove too ex­ longtime Republican of the Ronald Reagan try of people and goods from countries treme to win general elections. But ulti­ and Jack Kemp mould, Mr Gates has re­ with a communicable disease that could be mately the repairs will have to come from ceived death threats for defending the le­ introduced into America. It was invoked by within the Republican Party itself. gitimacy of the election. “If this is a new the Centres for Disease Control (under That is why it is particularly worrying normal, our democracy is definitely in per­ pressure from Mr Trump’s White House) in that it is so resistant to internal correction. il. Because you can’t do this and have a March 2020, citing the risk of the spread of Disbelief in Mr Trump’s lies is now seen as healthy, functioning democracy,” he says. covid­19, and was extended indefinitely in apostasy; its punishment is usually ex­ His other Republican credentials—cut­ May that year. In effect, it bars entry to communication from the party. Liz Cheney ting taxes and even supporting tighter vot­ most migrants arriving at America’s south­ was formerly the third­leading Republican ing laws—have ceased to matter. “There ern and northern borders, including those in the House; her unwillingness to stay may be electoral consequences to me down seeking asylum. They are expelled quickly quiet about Mr Trump’s responsibility for the road. I'm not currently worried. This is to the country they came through—usually the attack of January 6th led her colleagues too important…9/11 was a threat to our safe­ Mexico—even if they are not from there. to take away that title. Of the ten Republi­ ty. This is the biggest threat to our democ­ From March 2020 until this past May, there cans in the House of Representatives who racy,” he adds. “We were the party of the have been 845,000 expulsions by Border voted to impeach Mr Trump for his actions rule of law.” Mr Gates argues that the party Patrol under Title 42. in January, nine have now acquired prim­ has lost its Burkean roots in favour of fe­ Immigration advocates and human­ ary challengers. The ex­president has verish populism. Thought of as a careful rights groups are frustrated that Mr Biden pledged to back a challenger for the tenth. and pragmatic politician before, with some has continued to use this Trump­tainted After eight months of investigation, a aspirations for statewide office, Mr Gates’s tool. “Title 42 is illegal, inhumane, and not Republican­led committee of Michigan stance may have sunk his chances. justified by public health,” says Lee Gelernt state senators recently released a report In his retirement, he had dreamed of of the American Civil Liberties Union finding no evidence of fraud. Like the going to the former Soviet republics to (aclu), which sued the Trump administra­ queen of hearts, Mr Trump quickly called serve as an election observer in fledgling tion over the legality of using title 42 to ex­ for their heads. “Michigan State Senators democracies. With some emotion in his pel unaccompanied minors and asylum­ Mike Shirkey and Ed McBroom are doing voice, he reflects, “I never imagined that it seekers. “We hoped that the Biden admin­ everything possible to stop Voter Audits in would be here. I would do it here in Marico­ istration would eliminate it on day one in order to hide the truth about November pa County…that’s what’s just stunning.” office," he says. Of particular concern is the 3rd,” he wrote. “The truth will come out Looking around he repeats, almost to him­ treatment of asylum­seekers, who are be­ and rinos [Republicans in name only] will self: “I don’t need to go to Belarus. I got it ing expelled so quickly under Title 42 that pay at the polls, especially with primary right here.” n many are not allowed the opportunity to

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 United States 35

make an asylum claim. (The Biden admin­ UFOs stance), classified aircraft programmes, istration has already started exempting “foreign adversaries” or a residual “oth­ unaccompanied minors, who are being let The truth is not er”—which is as close as the report comes into America.) to entertaining otherworldly possibilities. Yet for the Biden administration Title out there Few in the Pentagon seem worried 42 has been a convenient solution at an in­ about extraterrestrial invaders. Their con­ convenient time. The number of migrants cerns are more prosaic, and geopolitical. arriving at the southern border is the high­ uaps present a “safety of flight issue”, for est in more than two decades, and Title 42 one thing; American pilots reported 11 The government comes clean on ufos has enabled Mr Biden to keep America’s near­misses. The other concern is that the borders mostly closed, despite the Repub­ etween 2004 and 2021, American mili­ incidents point to Chinese or Russia licans’ rhetoric about his “open borders” Btary pilots registered 144 reports of un­ snooping or, worse, evidence of “break­ policy. “Title 42 was a stop­gap that was identified aerial phenomena (uaps), the through technologies”, such as revolution­ useful to buy time to figure out how they government’s po­faced term for ufos. One ary means of propulsion. are going to manage immigration at the turned out to be a large deflating balloon. The report amounts to a giant shrug. border long­term,” says Andrew Selee, The others are a mystery. So concluded a The evidence is “largely inconclusive”, it president of the Migration Policy Institute, long­awaited report published on June says. Firmer conclusions will require more a research organisation. “They’ve bought 25th by the Office of the Director of Nation­ data. The uap Task Force will now collect time, but they don’t have the answers yet.” al Intelligence (odni), which co­ordinates data from more sources, including histori­ That time is close to running out. the work of American intelligence agen­ cal radar records. It will make better use of Theresa Cardinal Brown of the Bipartisan cies. The nine­page “preliminary assess­ artificial intelligence to spot patterns, such Policy Centre, a think­tank, predicts that ment” was the result of pressure from Con­ as whether uaps coincide with balloons or the administration has “weeks, not gress. In June last year the Senate’s intelli­ wildlife. And it will standardise reporting months” before it will be forced to end gence committee, then chaired by Marco from across military services, since much Title 42, if it doesn’t voluntarily suspend it Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, of the existing data is from the navy. first. One factor forcing its hand is the on­ asked the Department of Defence to create Part of the answer may lie in better, and going lawsuit from the aclu over expul­ a uap Task Force to streamline the collec­ more, sensors. An object that appears to sions of families seeking asylum. Theaclu tion of reports. In January it was given six travel at hypersonic speeds might be an ar­ and the federal government are in negotia­ months to publish its findings. tefact of a moving camera, an illusion tions to end the lawsuit, and the govern­ Some are striking. One is that uaps known as parallax. Observing it through ment has recently allowed 250 especially “probably do represent physical objects”, more sensors, including those that detect vulnerable asylum­seekers into America rather than being technical anomalies or parts of the electromagnetic spectrum each day to get on with their claims. An­ figments of pilots’ imaginations. That is above and below visible light, would help. other factor is the Mexican government, because more than half the objects were There is a human element, too. Kath­ which is murmuring about no longer tak­ registered across multiple sensors, includ­ leen Hicks, the deputy secretary of de­ ing back the non­Mexicans who are being ing radar and infra­red. Moreover, 18 of the fence, has ordered the Pentagon to put the expelled in large numbers. It is also be­ incidents suggested “unusual flight char­ uap Task Force on a permanent footing and coming harder to justify such a restrictive acteristics”, such as moving against the to ensure that it receives reports of sight­ public­health law when states have re­ wind or manoeuvring abruptly, though the ings within two weeks. opened and vaccines are available. report warns that this could be the result of But one of the biggest obstacles to the A phase­out is more likely than a quick sensor errors or misperception. collection of data is the stigma associated end. But the administration’s plans to Yet the report is thin gruel for alien with the issue. Aviators and analysts “de­ make the immigration system more effi­ hunters. The odni says that if the inci­ scribe disparagement” when they report or cient, fair and manageable after Title 42 is dents are ever resolved, they will probably discuss uaps, says the odni. “Reputational lifted are not yet in place. There is talk of fall into one of five categories: airborne risk may keep many observers silent,” it speeding up asylum for those arriving at clutter (like hobbyists’ drones), natural at­ warns, “complicating scientific pursuit of the border with credible fear of persecu­ mospheric phenomena (ice crystals, for in­ the topic.” n tion at home, by, for example, hiring more asylum officers to process their claims quickly. A huge backlog of more than 1.3m immigration cases is making its way through immigration courts; on average each one takes more than two and a half years to resolve. But next year’s budget for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees border control, “doesn’t appear to take into account the scale of what they’ll need to grapple with between now and then”, says Ms Cardinal Brown, as the flow of migrants continues to grow. Republicans are going to keep criticis­ ing Mr Biden’s and Kamala Harris’s han­ dling of the border no matter what action they take. But when Title 42 has ended, im­ migration hawks will quickly swoop down. And Mr Trump and Mr Abbott will no doubt hold another “security briefing” for their concerned supporters. n Uncovering the cover-up

012 36 United States The Economist July 3rd 2021

Lexington There goes the neighbourhood

What gets lost when national politics eats everything the sardine canneries and herring smokehouses closed, the popu­ lation dwindled and those who remained struggled to find some new form of industry. What is happening now, in Lubec and across the land, is that the flow of influence is reversing. It is starting to move from the national level to the local one, and from American­as­citizen to American­as­neighbour. America is the worse for it. In “Good Neighbours: The Democracy of Everyday Life in America”, published in 2016, Nancy Rosenblum, a political philos­ opher, warned of a “social and political holism” that comes with opening the neighbourhood gates wide to civic concerns. “For rec­ iprocity among neighbours as ‘decent folk’ turns on the real pos­ sibility of disregarding precisely the social inequalities, racial and sectarian differences, and conflicting ideological commitments that citizens bring to public life,” she writes. Passions about such matters can simplify and coarsen relations among neighbours. They collapse the generous spaces made—not always, but often enough—for eccentricities, personal lapses and political opin­ ions, for the tolerance and empathy that sustain pluralism. This is what happened, in Ms Rosenblum’s telling, as Ameri­ cans of other races watched their Japanese­American neighbours get packed off to internment camps during the second world war. visitor to Lubec, the easternmost town in America, can still “The family next door was seen through the lens of racial and po­ Ahope to leave the rubber lobsters and other clutter of the litical categories, and through the miasma of mistrust thrown up Maine tourist trade two hours behind in Bar Harbor. But these days by war,” she writes. “Pluralism gave way to totalism.” national politics follows everyone everywhere in America. So the Maybe not totalism, but certainly holism, is becoming the sto­ visitor should not be surprised to spot a particular red­white­and­ ry of life in America. On the Trumpist right the formula is simple: black flag hanging from a pine tree along a road into town. “Fuck commitment to one man shapes your view of reality. On the left Biden,” it reads. “And fuck you for voting for him!” the formula is more slippery, compounded of doctrinal, identitar­ The visitor has the luxury of forgetting the message, since ian and even stylistic commitments that are evolving in ways that everyone he meets is kind, if a bit gruff, and what is familiar and surprise even would­be adherents and catch them out. wearisome gets shouldered out of the way by what is majestic and The effect is that little space is safe from political judgment. new—the 28­foot tides, the granite bluffs, the stands of birch, even Not just whom you vote for or what flags you wave but what pro­ the fog, which seems to erase the whole world, leaving just the ducts you buy, what national story you tell, and what words you sound of the surf. use or capitalise all answer the dangerous question that is once Residents aren’t so lucky. They have to live with the damn again at the centre of American life: which side are you on? thing, as well as with the same flag hung by someone across town. (The flag sells on Amazon for just $23.99.) It is one matter when a Dewey-eyed stranger raises a middle finger to you. It is quite another when Though surrounding Washington County voted overwhelmingly your neighbour does it, particularly in a place like Lubec, where for Donald Trump, within Lubec 457 people voted for Joe Biden only about 1,300 people live. Some of them have had enough. and 406 for Mr Trump. Not just the artists but seemingly everyone A letter to the editor published in the Quoddy Tides, the local bi­ here assembles a livelihood from more than one job, like diving weekly newspaper, urged someone to make off with the flag if the for scallops and also taking tourists out to see minke whales. Me­ owner did not remove it. (Many residents seem to know who the lissa Lee works for a statewide land trust and also for the local li­ flag­wavers are, but they are delicately not named in print.) Anoth­ brary. She says the signs send a message that all that matters about er letter called one flag­waver “a deeply disturbed soul unable to her is her vote. They make her feel “cut off, without any thought to accept personal responsibility for their dismal failures to be good any communication, or that maybe you’re an individual and you citizens or good neighbours”. might have other qualities”. For Americans, those two roles generally go together. They like They are just signs, and may not be portents. Another represen­ to think of themselves as good neighbours, and of their neigh­ tation of Lubec’s spirit is the Lost Fishermen’s Memorial, resting bourliness as the foundation of their democracy. But from the on a rise looking out over Lubec Narrows towards Canada’s Cam­ start the idea of American neighbourliness has been part myth. pobello Island, where Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who envisioned Members of the Passamaquoddy tribe living on the small reserva­ the world as a neighbourhood yet also oversaw those internment tion just north of Lubec could tell you about that. camps, took holidays. The monument was created in 2016 to re­ The relationship between neighbourliness and citizenship is member local fishermen lost at sea since 1900, in pursuit of lob­ also complex. For philosophers like John Dewey, the give­and­ sters for New York or sea urchins for Tokyo. More than 110 names take within small communities was the essential stuff of Ameri­ are engraved on the granite. Many family names are repeated. can democracy, fostering communication and trust that would Money for the memorial was raised locally, some by neighbours flow upwards through representatives at the national level. That, organising trips or holding yard sales. It is this version of Lubec, of residents say, has been the story of Lubec for many years, even as life larger than politics, that its residents are right to defend.n

012 The Americas The Economist July 3rd 2021 37

Cuba The government is trying desperately to eke out dollars and skimp on imported Serve the people goods. Cubans can no longer buy green­ backs from state­operated exchanges at the airport. State­owned bakeries are replac­ ing a fifth of the imported wheat flour they use in bread with substitutes made from home­grown corn, pumpkin or yucca, MIAMI much to the dismay of consumers, who Cuba is facing its worst shortage of food since the 1990s have complained that bread now tastes like ubans have always been resource­ food supply. The jump in global food pric­ soggy corn. The sale of biscuits has been “Cful,” says Ana, the owner of a private es, which in the year to May surged by 40%, limited in certain cities to cut back even farm­to­table restaurant near Havana. “But the largest increase in a decade, has made more on imports of flour. now we need to be magicians and acro­ imports more expensive. But the main pro­ Since February, in a desperate attempt bats.” The communist island is facing its blem is the government’s lack of hard cur­ to collect hard currency, the government worst shortage of food since the 1990s. rency. Tourism, normally 10% of gdp, has has required that foreigners pay for their Finding ingredients was never easy in a atrophied because of the pandemic: seven­day mandatory stay in a state­ place which imports around 70% of its whereas 4.2m people visited in 2019, just owned quarantine hotel in dollars (since food. Over the past year it has become over 1m did last year, nearly all in the first June, this has even applied to some Cu­ nearly impossible. When grocery shops are three months of the year. Remittances bans). To earn more from its diaspora, the empty, as is so often the case, Ana tries the have also suffered. Before covid­19, com­ state also operates e­commerce sites internet or the black market, only to find mercial airlines would operate as many as through which Cubans abroad can pay in that prices are prohibitively high. Farmers ten flights a day between Miami and Hava­ dollars or euros for food and gifts to be de­ no longer want to sell produce to her, she na, all packed with cash­toting mulas. But livered to people on the island. says, as they need to eat it themselves. now only a handful of flights go to Havana Indeed many Cubans abroad are trying The government blames the shortage of each week. In addition, this year’s harvest to help their family members stave off food mostly on sanctions imposed by the of sugar—one of Cuba’s main exports—was hunger by sending their own care packag­ United States—sanctions which, on June the worst in more than a century, as a re­ es. But even these have become harder and 24th, the un General Assembly voted to sult of drought (the dollar shortage also more costly to post. Goods from the United condemn, as it has done nearly every year sapped supplies of fertiliser and petrol). States that once took two weeks to deliver since 1992. But since 2001 the sanctions can now take up to four months to arrive, have exempted food. Indeed, the United as shortages of fuel and trucks in Cuba → Also in this section States is the largest exporter of food to Cu­ make the final leg of the delivery trickier. ba, though last year those imports were at 38 Unmarked graves in Canada Bungled policy responses have made their lowest level since 2002. things worse. On June 10th the Cuban cen­ 40 Bello: Latin America’s shifting identity Some external factors have affected the tral bank announced that, from June 21st,

012 38 The Americas The Economist July 3rd 2021

Cubans would not be able to deposit dol­ many Cubans, the question is not how ic difficulties are created by their leaders, lars into their bank accounts for an undis­ many more of the same indignities their not the United States. The best way to stave closed amount of time. This is despite the people can endure, but how much longer. off popular discontent would be to imple­ fact that, in order to buy goods in state­ Discontent was slightly less likely when ment more and bigger economic reforms, owned shops, Cubans need to have a pre­ Fidel Castro was in power. He had charis­ at a faster pace, starting with farms and paid card loaded with dollars. They will ma and mystique that neither his brother small businesses. It is a measure of Cu­ now have to exchange their dollars for eu­ and successor, Raúl, nor Cuba’s current bans’ disillusionment that the old revolu­ ros or other currencies, which involves a president, Miguel Díaz­Canel, can repli­ tionary cry of “Hasta la victoria siempre” fee. Emilio Morales, the head of the Havana cate. What is more, the Cuban diaspora is (On to victory, always) has largely been Consulting Group in Miami, thinks this larger and wealthier and the internet has supplanted by the longsuffering “¿Hasta was a way to scare people into depositing shown Cubans that many of their econom­ cuándo?” (How much longer?) n more before the deadline. Rather than stabilise the economy, the policy is likely to do the reverse. Some ex­ Indigenous Canadians change houses in Miami soon ran out of euros. Cuban banks were overwhelmed by Searching for the truth queues of panicking people trying to de­ posit the dollars they needed to buy grocer­ ies. “Cuba has 11m hostages and is expect­ ing Cuban exiles to pay their ransom,” says Mr Morales. Ricardo Cabrisas, the deputy VANCOUVER prime minister, was recently in Paris nego­ More graves are uncovered at residential schools tiating another extension on the roughly $3.5bn of loans owed to foreign govern­ he purpose of Canada’s residential The number of graves has shocked Ca­ ments—the island has been in arrears Tschools for indigenous children was to nadians, even though many indigenous since 2019. An ultimatum from creditors “kill the Indian in the child”. Sometimes people had complained about the residen­ may help explain the government’s desire the child died too. Over the past month tial schools for decades. “Now our truth is to hoover up greenbacks. 1,148 unmarked graves have been found at finally out,” says Barbara Lavallee, a Cowes­ Despite making some attempts to liber­ the sites of three former residential sess First Nation researcher who is part of alise the economy, the government is baf­ schools. Ground­penetrating radar con­ the team of elders and technicians that un­ flingly poor at boosting agricultural pro­ firmed what indigenous groups have long covered the second gravesite. duction or wooing foreign investors. Firms suspected: that more children died at these The Canadian government has previ­ producing food in Cuba earn only pesos, schools than was previously thought. ously tried to atone for the residential which have little value internationally, but Beginning in the mid­1800s the Canadi­ school system. In 2008, in response to the must buy almost all their inputs abroad in an government forced at least 150,000 in­ country’s largest class­action lawsuit, the a foreign currency. The government re­ digenous children into residential government formally apologised for the quires farmers to sell their harvest to the schools, mostly run by the Roman Catholic schools. It held a truth and reconciliation state at uncompetitive prices and imposes church. The last closed in the late 1990s. commission, deeming the schools a form draconian rules on livestock management. Children were beaten for speaking their of “cultural genocide”, compensated survi­ Up until last month it was illegal to native language. Many suffered sexual and vors and paid for programmes to locate slaughter a cow before it had reached an physical abuse. Disease spread rapidly be­ graves. Since the 1980s aboriginal rights advanced age, as determined by the state. cause of cramped dormitories and poor liv­ have been enshrined in the constitution. Now farmers may kill them either to sell ing conditions. Some children died in acci­ By contrast the United States, which al­ the meat or to eat it themselves. But before dents or in attempts to escape. so ran boarding schools for indigenous they do so, they must jump through a se­ ries of hoops, including certifying that the cow has produced at least 520 litres of milk a year. They are also not allowed to let their herd shrink overall, and so can only slaughter one cow for every three calves they add to it—a tall order in the long run, mathematically. As it is, Cuba is having trouble maintaining its existing cattle herd: last year, in the province of Las Tunas alone, more than 7,000 cows died from de­ hydration. Farmers have to complete pa­ perwork and wait a week for approval, too. “The process of applying to eat a cow is enough to make you lose your appetite,” says a farmer in Bahía Honda. Cubans are no strangers to difficult times. Eliecer Jiménez Almeida, a Cuban filmmaker in Miami, was a child during the “special period” of hardship after the fall of the Soviet Union, and remembers how his grandmother sold her gold teeth in exchange for soap, just so that he and his siblings could take a bath. For him and for Banging the drum for human rights

012 Subscriber-only live digital event Language and the principles of style at The Economist

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Enjoy a rare opportunity to join Lane Greene, Lane Greene language columnist (“Johnson”), and Anton La Guardia, digital editor, for an in-depth Language columnist discussion about The Economist’s philosophy (“Johnson”) of language, the principles that underpin its style guide, and what our editors think makes Anton La Guardia for good and bad writing. Participants will have Digital editor a chance to ask their own questions about grammar, language use and style.

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012 40 The Americas The Economist July 3rd 2021

children, has done none of these things. parents raising children—a common fea­ United States has made more progress in Even so, it may nowadays be doing a better ture in some indigenous communities—as reducing foster­care numbers. About half job than Canada at keeping indigenous a sign of parental neglect. In 2016 a Canadi­ of children in foster care in Canada are in­ families together. an human­rights tribunal found that the digenous, despite making up only 8% of In both the United States and Canada, government spent less money on reserves the population. In the United States indigenous children have been dispropor­ on programmes to support families; as a around 3% of children in foster care are in­ tionately put into foster care and adoptive result indigenous children were more like­ digenous, closer to the proportion of Na­ homes. That perpetuates the break­up of ly to be taken from their homes. tive Americans in the population. How­ families initiated by residential schools, In the United States indigenous people ever, following the revelations in Canada, argues Margaret Jacobs of the University of are given more autonomy to govern them­ Deb Haaland, the United States’ first indig­ Nebraska. She reckons that social workers selves. Tribal courts can experiment with enous secretary of the interior, has an­ have tended to remove children from innovative approaches and tend to have nounced an investigation into America’s homes that were simply poor, rather than smaller dockets, giving judges more time boarding schools. Both countries can learn abusive. They may have interpreted grand­ to evaluate cases. This is partly why the from each other. n Bello Mestizaje, reality and myth

The demand to revise Latin America’s national identities exicans emerged from indige­ fashionable. The new nations set out to 42m Latin Americans, or 8% of the total, “Mnous people, Brazilians emerged create collective identities. It was a tricky defined themselves as indigenous, ac­ from the jungle, but we Argentines ar­ task, as Simón Bolívar, the liberator of cording to censuses; others took pride in rived on boats. On boats from Europe.” So northern South America, wrote: “We are their African descent. These people tend said Alberto Fernández, Argentina’s neither Indians nor Europeans, but a race to be poorer than average, whereas elites president, last month. It was meant as a halfway between the legitimate owners of tend to be whiter than average. Racism friendly nod to Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s the land and the Spanish usurpers.” and racial tension survive, albeit in less prime minister, who was sitting beside Throughout the 19th century histori­ overt form. Take Argentina: behind the him. Two decades ago the comment, ans, painters and poets worked to create European façade proclaimed by Mr Fer­ which Mr Fernández attributed to Octa­ national myths and heroes. These were nández lay the extermination of some vio Paz, a Mexican poet, but which was generally whitish men: although Indians indigenous people in the 19th century really more faithful to an Argentine rock and black slaves were accepted as part of and the hidden survival of others. Or song of the 1980s, would have gone un­ the nation, it was in subordinate roles. In Peru: according to Gonzalo Portocarrero, remarked. Not now: many took offence. the 20th century more inclusive national a sociologist, its history contains two What made his timing especially clumsy identities emerged, centring on mestizaje, persistent fantasies, that of a race war is that Latin Americans are once again the racial and cultural mixing of indige­ feared by whites and that of Inkarri, the engaging in one of their periodic bouts of nous people, Europeans, Africans who return of the Inca emperor to rescue his questioning their national identities. arrived as slaves and immigrants from people from bondage. Portocarrero, In Colombia in April indigenous elsewhere. “There is not a single Latin writing in 2015, thought both were fad­ demonstrators toppled a statue of Sebas­ American, from the Rio Grande to Cape ing. Recent events call that conclusion tián de Benalcázar, a Spanish conquista­ Horn, who is not an heir to each and every into question. dor. Monuments in Bogotá to Queen aspect of [this] cultural heritage,” Carlos Statue­toppling is currently wide­ Isabella of Castile and her hired help, Fuentes, a Mexican writer, declared in 1992 spread, and there is an element of an­ Christopher Columbus, were also at­ as the region marked the quincentenary of archist vandalism to it. But Latin Amer­ tacked and have been removed for safe­ Columbus’s arrival. ican leaders would be foolish if they fail keeping. Chile has decided to make June That commemoration in fact prompted to recognise that in recent mass protests 24th a public holiday as “the day of the a questioning ofmestizaje. In 2010 around there is a demand not just for material original peoples”. In May Mexico’s presi­ improvements but also for more in­ dent, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, clusive national identities in countries apologised to the Mayans for the abuses where the pandemic and the prior eco­ of the past five centuries. Pedro Castillo, nomic slowdown have deepened social a left­wing teacher and the presumptive fractures. The conquistadors were brave, winner of Peru’s presidential election, but they were brutal too. They belong in said that to be “of Andean blood” is to be museums, not in public squares (Colum­ “authentically Peruvian”. Some of his bus is a more complicated case, as a opponents brandish red and white flags generic symbol of the European roots of featuring the cross of Burgundy, an em­ many Latin Americans). But while Latin blem of Spanish colonial rule. America should pay due recognition to National identities evolve every­ its cultural and ethnic diversity, it should where. And they tend to be closely linked not lose sight of the many things its to race. That has been especially so in people have in common. Cultural mesti- Latin America. Most of the region be­ zaje is in some ways a myth and it should came independent two centuries ago, not be imposed. But it remains the only just when the French revolution and the inclusive and unifying narrative the European Romantics made nationalism region possesses.

012 THE WORLD AHEAD

JULY 3RD 2021

Scenarios for the future of health

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WE SEE THE NEED TO BE VIGILANT.

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012 3 What If? Health and politics

What If? is our annual collection of scenarios. This year it considers the future of health. Each of these stories is fiction, but grounded in historical fact, current speculation and real science. They do not present a unified narrative but are set in different futures

→ If biohackers → Health and politics injected Freedom to tinker 3 If biohackers injected themselves themselves with mRNA with mRNA October 2029 5 If America tackled its opioid crisis 6 If a deadly heatwave hit India → Health and business 8 If everyone’s nutrition was personalised 10 If smartphones became personal health assistants → Health and science 11 If marmosets lived on the Moon Members of a biohacktivist group demand 13 If dementia was preventable and the right to experiment with their own biology. treatable An imagined scenario from 2029 14 If an AI won the Nobel prize for medicine o understand the controversy around the Wit­ → Health in history Tnesses of Bioinformatic Freedom (wbf), a biohack­ tivist group, cast your mind back to the coronavirus 16 If germ theory had caught on sooner pandemic a decade ago. Within days of the discovery of the sars­cov­2 virus in 2019, its genome had been sequenced and used to create prototype vaccines con­ taining molecules of messenger rna, or mrna. Hun­ dreds of millions of people were injected with these artificial mrna molecules, which instructed the pro­ tein­producing machinery inside the body’s cells to make a “spike” protein, identical to that found on the virus’s surface. The resulting spike proteins then trig­ 7.5 gered an immune response, priming the recipient’s immune system so that it could recognise and fight off the virus if required to do so. The size (in kilo- The same mrna technology had been used in the bytes) of the 2010s to develop experimental vaccines for other dis­ genome of the eases, including Zika virus and Ebola. But the power of SARS-CoV-2 virus mrna was demonstrated on a global scale during the

012 4 What If? The future of health The Economist July 3rd 2021

pandemic, paving the way for other treatments in the ↓ involved in memory formation. The government 2020s. Like the vaccines, these use carefully crafted Superforecast launched an investigation after a student, Luka Drago­ mrna messages to boost temporarily the production tin, died of a mysterious autoimmune complaint in of needed proteins, or inhibit the production of harm­ How many RNA 2025. The test scores of the students who had been ful ones—a technique often likened to using the pa­ vaccines and dosing themselves with mrna did seem to have risen tient’s own cellular machinery as an on­demand drug therapeutics for relative to those of their peers. The doctoral students factory. This approach is now used to treat cancer, humans will be went to prison for 15 years, and the government im­ heart disease and neurological disorders. FDA-approved as posed strict new regulations on mrna technology. The story of that medical revolution has been wide­ of 2031? The following year Wired, a technology­news out­ ly told. Less well known is the parallel story that has let, published a story about a group of mothers in Aus­ been unfolding alongside it. During the pandemic, Fewer than 10 tin, Texas, who had dosed themselves with mrna mol­ new technologies, infrastructure and supply chains 2% ecules during pregnancy. The treatment was said to were created to manufacture mrna vaccines at vast keep their production of thyroid hormones within the scale, while also allowing their mrna payloads to be optimal window for neurological development in ute­ quickly and easily tweaked as new variants emerged. 10 to 100 ro, thus maximising the cognitive capacity of their off­ Once covid­19 was brought under control and demand 50% spring. None of the mothers suffered any complica­ for vaccines subsided, some of that infrastructure be­ tions in pregnancy, and the mrna­dosed children all gan to be put to new and unexpected uses. turned out to be healthy. But there was an outcry from The possibility of using mrna for self­enhance­ 101 to 249 evangelical Christians and right­wing politicians who ment first emerged in 2024, after the Paris Olympics. 38% denounced “meddling” with biology. In 2027 the feder­ In 2012, Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman, two of the al government banned self­dosing with mrna and set main actors in the intellectual development of thera­ up a Senate committee to investigate the use and mis­ peutic mrna, had shown that carefully designed 250 to 500 use of the technology. mrna molecules could transiently raise the level of 8% It was at this point that the wbf, a group champion­ erythropoietin (epo), a protein hormone which stimu­ ing biohackers’ rights, stepped onto the public stage. It lates production of red blood cells, in mice. More epo declared in its manifesto that people had the right to means more red blood cells, which means more oxy­ More than 500 send genetic messages of their own making to their gen delivered to working muscles, which improves 2% own cells. wbf members, it emerged, had documented physical performance. In the months after the Paris successful mrna dosing for alertness, minor tweaks Olympics rumours began to circulate that some com­ to physiology (such as to prevent hair loss), and sup­ petitors had been taking regular injections of epo­pro­ pression of stress hormones. It was, they argued, al­ ducing mrna. But the tests available failed to show ready too late for governments to stop them. conclusive evidence of foul play. New tests were then The group has since turned out to have members developed in time for the 2028 games. and sympathisers throughout the research communi­ Meanwhile, a group of biology doctoral students at ty, who have helped refine the process of delivering the University of Belgrade began producing and distri­ messages to human cells. Needles and syringes are no buting an mrna molecule said to enhance learning longer required. Biohackers have built small patches abilities by boosting the synthesis of small proteins of flexible electronics and microfluidics, worn onthe body much like a nicotine patch, capable of crafting specific mrna sequences in situ and inserting them into the bloodstream. New sequences can be beamed to the patch from a smartphone or computer. A flourishing open­source ecosystem has devel­ oped around the designs of the patches and the mole­ cules they can produce. New mrna molecules are usu­ ally released to a select group of alpha testers, and made widely available only after the alpha testers have granted approval. Not all mrna molecules are thera­ peutics or enhancements; the fastest­growing catego­ ry is for molecules that offer transient, drug­like expe­ riences, supposedly with no long­term side­effects. Some doctors are said to be quietly dabbling in mrna hacking themselves, and even recommending it to patients. For their part, drug companies have called for a clampdown on what they deride as “ama­ teur pharmaceuticals”. They have also tried to have some repositories of mrna molecules taken offline, claiming violation of intellectual property. The question now is whether governments can put the genie back in the bottle through concerted, co­or­ dinated action. Many politicians say the power to tin­ ker with biology is too dangerous to have in the hands Superforecaster even just of doctors and must be regulated. Next probability predictions month’s global meeting on the topic in Belgrade, the Source: Good Judgment Pit your wits against Dragotin Conference, will bring together policymak­ the superforecasters ers, medical experts and regulatory specialists. Repre­ at GJopen.com/whatif sentatives from the wbf have not been invited. •

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 What If? The future of health 5

people sheltered in self­enforced quarantine, addic­ tion­treatment clinics were closed and Mexican car­ tels established supply lines of cheap, potent drugs to all parts of America. The rising death toll was barely dented by the modest sums spent on the problem dur­ ing the Biden administration, which did little more than twiddle its thumbs after Republicans took back control of Congress in the mid­term elections of 2022. Though addiction to all types of drugs (including cocaine and methamphetamines) has steadily in­ creased, the primary problem remains opioids. They came to the fore in the early 1990s in the form of pre­ scription painkillers that were unscrupulously mar­ keted to doctors as unlikely to cause addiction. The most famous was OxyContin, launched in 1996. By the time it had been reformulated to make it harder to abuse, too many Americans were already hooked and the drug crisis had morphed into something else en­ tirely, as addicts looked for alternatives. “Reformula­ tion led markets to sell deadlier substances and con­ taminate non­opioid drugs, expanding illicit opioid drug use,” concluded David Powell and Rosalie Liccar­ do Pacula, two drugs­policy researchers, in 2020. Prosecutors spent years in litigation against the makers of OxyContin and other opioid manufacturers and distributors, culminating in last year’s momen­ tous judgment and a penalty of $350bn—larger than that imposed on tobacco giants over their promotion of smoking. But few pharmaceutical executives went → If America to jail, and this immense sum seems small, given that tackled its The other epidemic the crisis has lasted a quarter of a century and costs opioid crisis America $80bn a year, according to the cdc. June 2025 In addition to the cash from the settlement, Demo­ crats in Congress, with the backing of the White House, now propose to spend an extra $250bn over the next ten years to tackle the problem (President Kamala Harris shares her predecessor’s proclivity for eye­pop­ ping sums). It is something that a few Republican sen­ ators could even agree to—curtailing addiction being one of the only remaining bipartisan issues. The emerging consensus reflects a continuing shift in America’s approach to drugs policy, with less empha­ sis on reducing the supply of illicit drugs via enforce­ ment and incarceration, and more emphasis on reduc­ ing harm and the risk of death for those addicted. The model for the new legislation is the Ryan White Kamala Harris’s administration is getting Care Act, passed in 1990 to deal with the hiv/aids epi­ serious about tackling deaths from drug demic by establishing the federal government as the overdoses. An imagined scenario from 2025 payer of last resort for patients. It was part of a success­ ful campaign against the disease, as the distribution of rojections from the Centres for Disease Control therapeutics rapidly reduced mortality, and preven­ Pand Prevention (cdc) published this month predict tion efforts stemmed the growth of infections. The in­ that in 2025, for the first time, more than 100,000 troduction of a prophylactic treatment in 2012 has Americans will die from a drug overdose, bringing the since helped keep rates of infection among vulnerable total to more than 1m since 1999. At current rates, by groups (mainly gay and bisexual men) in check. the time of the next presidential election in 2028, There is now hope that similar progress can be more Americans will have died in the 21st century of made against drug addiction, particularly to opioids. drug overdoses than died in all of America’s wars over The Food and Drug Administration (fda) long ago ap­ its entire history. These horrifying statistics have at proved three drugs to provide medically assisted treat­ last focused attention on this neglected crisis. ment to those addicted to opioids: methadone, bupre­ The roots of the problem go back a long way. Since norphine and naltrexone. The first two are opioids the 1980s, America’s drug­overdose death rates have used as replacements, with less scope for abuse. The increased at the terrifyingly steady clip of 7.6% per third blocks cells’ opioid receptors and thus the eu­ year. In 2018, when the death rate dropped for the first phoria from abusing drugs. All three medicines sub­ time in ages, the Trump administration took a victory stantially reduce the risk of dying from an overdose. lap much too soon, touting the success of its policies. Yet they are surprisingly underused. Only around Then came covid­19. Drug­overdose rates exploded as half of those addicted to opioids in America receive

012 6 What If? The future of health The Economist July 3rd 2021

these therapies. But for years their use has been ham­ → If a deadly pered. Bureaucratic restrictions kept doctors from heatwave hit India A tale of two cities widely prescribing buprenorphine. The requirement that methadone be doled out in person remains, even June 2041 though evidence shows that allowing it to be taken home reduces subsequent hospitalisations. Skittish­ ness among non­specialist doctors limited the use of these treatments, as did a shortage of addiction spe­ cialists in rural areas. Much of the cash will be steered towards the expan­ sion of these treatments for the already addicted. Democratic aspirations for universal health coverage having failed during the Biden administration, it will be channelled through Medicaid, or via specialised grants. These have the advantage of being targeted, but the disadvantage of being temporary. Some funding will also be directed to purchasing naloxone, a drug NEW DELHI that saves lives by immediately reversing the effects of Why is Hyderabad weathering India’s deadly an opioid overdose. Yet in classic American fashion, heatwave so much better than Chennai? An little attention is being paid to constraining costs. Nal­ imagined scenario from 2041 oxone, which was patented in 1961 and once cost $1 per dose, now costs $150, hamstringing cities that had n new delhi, India’s capital, the roads have begun tried to buy the life­saving medicine. Bidencare’s fail­ Ito melt. Temperatures in the city reached 49.3°C ure means the federal government remains unable to (120.7°F) as the deadliest heatwave in the country’s his­ negotiate bulk purchases of essential drugs. tory entered its third week. It was even hotter in the None of the cash, however, will be steered towards south, where temperatures rose above 50°C, peaking at the creation of “safe­injection sites”, centres where us­ a record­breaking 52.1°C in the town of Markapur, An­ ers can go to shoot up under the watchful gaze of dhra Pradesh, on June 23rd. But the centre of the crisis health professionals, for which left­leaning cities had is the city of Chennai, where hospitals are buckling in been agitating. Calls for “heroin­assisted treatment”, the face of heat­related illnesses. The worst scenes as practised in some European countries, also went were outside Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital, where 11 peo­ nowhere. America is still not Switzerland. Even if it ple died from heat exposure while queuing. managed to build 5,000 supervised injection sites, The real killer in Chennai is the humidity. The com­ says Keith Humphreys, a professor of psychiatry at bined measure of heat and humidity in air is the “wet­ Stanford, that might only cover 1% of actual usage. “It’s bulb temperature”—the lowest temperature to which just not scalable,” he says. “Buprenorphine is scalable. something can be cooled through evaporation from its Needle exchanges are scalable. Naloxone is scalable. surface. In dry air, even at temperatures well above That’s what covers public health.” 37°C—human body temperature—people can sweat to All epidemics are sustained by the inflow of new cool down. But at wet­bulb temperatures of 32°C and cases. Researchers are encouraged that in America the flow of new addictions has slowed, partly because of reductions in opioid prescribing. At the peak of the prescribing blitz, in 2012, physicians wrote 81 opioid prescriptions per 100 Americans; by 2019, there were fewer than 46.7 per 100 (still high compared with the rest of the world). But even if new addictions are rarer, there are still more than 20m addicted people for whom better treatment is necessary. The challenge is that the nature of addiction has transformed into something deadlier in recent years— and not just because of potent synthetic opioids like fentanyl and carfentanil, though these have certainly made inadvertent opioid overdoses easier. It is also be­ cause of rising abuse of multiple types of drug at once. In 2011, 19% of opioid drug users said that they also used methamphetamine; by 2017, that number had grown to 34%. Such polydrug use makes treatment more complicated. Vaccines that blunt the worst ef­ 0.3m fects of synthetic opioids, currently in development, may provide protection against overdoses in future. But there are not well­developed pharmaceutical ther­ The global num- apeutics for addiction to methamphetamine. ber of heat-related As with all epidemics, the curve can be bent. The deaths among new administration is taking the problem seriously, over-65s in 2018. after years of neglect. But as the past 50 years of drug The figure has policy have demonstrated in America, the longer a increased by 54% problem persists, the worse it tends to become. • since 2000

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 What If? The future of health 7

higher, “it becomes unsafe to perform most physical Few cities have than usual. The unprecedented length of the current labour,” says Moetasim Ashfaq, an atmospheric physi­ made changes dry season—the monsoon usually starts at the begin­ cist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. ning of June—has compounded matters. A strong El Few people can survive a wet­bulb temperature above like those seen Niño effect has turned the heat up even further. 35°C. In the past decade, wet­bulb temperatures in in Hyderabad It was a similar, though much less deadly, heatwave Chennai have regularly risen above 32°C. But for much 26 years ago that jump­started Hyderabad’s efforts to of the past week, wet­bulb temperatures have repeat­ reduce city heat. In 2015 at least 585 people died as blis­ edly crossed 36°C—a fatal level. tering temperatures enveloped the city and the sur­ Initially, the deaths were concentrated among rounding state of Telangana. It was a turning point. those who could not escape the heat, especially the Hyderabad has since become a crucible of experimen­ city’s homeless population. But the high energy de­ tation in urban heat­reduction techniques. mand of air conditioning soon stretched the city’s In most heatwaves, the highest temperatures are power grid to its breaking point, resulting in city­wide experienced in cities, towns and other urban areas. blackouts lasting hours. That exposed anybody with­ One of the simplest ways to reduce heat is to boost the out a generator to the deadly heat. According to official reflectiveness, or “albedo” of city surfaces—especially statistics, 17,642 people have died from heat­related the roofs of buildings. The more solar radiation is re­ causes in Chennai since the heatwave began—more flected away from a city, the less is absorbed to be re­ than a third of the 52,348 deaths reported nationally. radiated as heat. To that end, the city government of Those are shocking statistics, but all the more so when Hyderabad tested a “cool roofs” programme in low­in­ juxtaposed with the experience of nearby Hyderabad. come neighbourhoods in the city in 2017. The two cities have similar temperatures in their The results were striking. Indoor air temperatures immediate surroundings and similar populations of in homes fitted with a cheap, white polyethylene roof around 10m people. But Hyderabad has registered just coating were, on average, 2°C cooler than similar 26 deaths, fewer than any other big city in southern In­ homes without them. As a result, in 2019, Telangana dia. The comparison has not been lost on officials. committed to a statewide cool­roof programme, mak­ “Whatever Hyderabad is doing, it’s working,” said Ra­ ing cool roofing mandatory for commercial and gov­ manatha Srinivasan, the mayor of Chennai, this week. ernment buildings, and in low­cost housing provided Hyderabad is in fact one of the leading cities in heat­ by the government. By 2027 more than 8,000 buildings wave mitigation—not just in India, but globally. So in Hyderabad had been fitted with cool roofs. what exactly is it doing differently? These efforts received a further boost in 2030, when India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Heat of the moment Act (nrega)—a rural jobs guarantee—was extended to India’s current heatwave is the result of an unlucky poor urban neighbourhoods. Under the programme, confluence of factors. Unusually strong north­wester­ the city of Hyderabad put unemployed residents to ly winds blowing in from Pakistan kept moist air from work painting shacks, shanties and other makeshift the Bay of Bengal from drifting inland onto the sub­ structures with a lime­based whitewash. More than continent. As a result, the region’s customary pre­ 250,000 homes have been made heat­resilient in this monsoon rain showers failed to materialise this year, way. The city also borrowed an idea from South Africa, leaving much of southern India drier and more arid planting 2.5m trees, which reduce surface and air tem­ peratures by providing shade and through the evapo­ ration of moisture from their leaves. An analysis by the University of Hyderabad found that all these initiatives have collectively reduced the average outdoor temperature in the city by 0.9°C since the early 2020s. That may not sound much, but this small change can make an enormous difference, as events in Chennai are now demonstrating. Until the 2030s, Chennai remained largely unscathed by deadly heatwaves because of its proximity to the ocean. But in recent years heatwaves have increased in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. This heatwave is likely to be a harbinger of things to come. Though the world is on track to reach net­zero carbon emissions around 2062, the effects of past emissions will continue to manifest themselves for decades. Deadly heatwaves are expected to increase in frequency well into the next century. Scientists have known this for some time. Since the early 2020s ex­ perts have warned that deadly temperatures could be commonplace in the Middle East, South Asia and parts of China by 2100. Yet the danger posed by heatwaves continues to surprise many policymakers. Few cities have made interventions of the type un­ dertaken in Hyderabad, and the consequences are now becoming clear. Fortunately, it is never too late to start. The best time to begin adapting may have been 20 years ago, but the second­best time is now. •

012 8 What If? Health and business

→ If everyone’s er the past decade. In 2031 the proportion of obese nutrition was You are what you eat Americans fell for the first time in more than 20 years, personalised and the rate of diabetes has fallen for three years in a January 2035 row from its all­time high of 22%. Europeans are get­ ting slimmer and healthier, too. But progress has been slower than hoped, and in emerging markets obesity is still rising, hobbling eco­ nomic growth. Environmentally sustainable eating, though increasingly popular in the rich world, is still not on track to reach the “planetary health diet” target set by scientists in 2019 in the Lancet, a medical jour­ nal. That target, which big food manufacturers and many other firms have pledged to support, called for a 50% worldwide cut in red meat and sugar consump­ tion and a doubling of the consumption of nuts, fruits, vegetables and legumes between 2020 and 2050. DAVOS That personalised nutrition is the best way to drum How would the mass adoption of personalised up demand for healthier and more earth­friendly nutrition change people’s health—and the food foods became clear in the mid­2020s. A decade earlier, industry? An imagined scenario from 2035 scientists had begun to unravel why one­size dietary guidelines in the form of food pyramids, sugar and fat et food be thy medicine and medicine be thy labels and so forth were not turning the tide on diabe­ “Lfood.” The diktat from Hippocrates, who defined tes, obesity and other diseases caused by bad diets. the principles of medicine in ancient Greece, hovers in Faddish regimens with catchy names like Keto or Paleo bright holographic characters over the main stage at worked for some people but were useless for many, if the World Economic Forum in Davos. The central not most, people who tried them. And people who lost theme this year is how to make personalised nutrition weight often found it hard to sustain. more widely available to those unable to afford its The diets that came and went until the 2020s re­ benefits. Hot topics include whether metabo­watches, quired steely willpower and careful planning. The big­ implants and other personal­nutrition trackers should gest problem, however, was their failure to recognise be free for everyone (as they are now in some Nordic that people’s bodies react differently to the same food­ countries), why personalised nutrition is good for stuffs. By the late 2010s mounting scientific evidence business and the perennial debate over how govern­ showed that meals that were perfectly healthy for one ments can best regulate corporate use of consumers’ person could be another person’s fast­track path to di­ personal data. abetes, obesity or heart disease. Amid the arguments, there is broad consensus that It turned out that even the same meal eaten by the the rise of personalised nutrition has done a lot to pro­ same person at a different time of day could be meta­ mote healthy and environmentally friendly eating ov­ bolised in a more or less healthy way, depending on

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 What If? The future of health 9

their other eating, sleeping and exercise patterns. The Apps and en how slowly it moved to reduce salt and sugar in pro­ most crucial discovery was the role of the microbiome, algorithms cessed foods. Its transformation is evident on super­ the colony of 100trn microbes living in the human gut. identify what market shelves, where processed foods are available in The microbiome, it turned out, was the factory that multiple variants, tuned for each of the main metabo­ converted food into the various substances the body people should types identified by scientists. (Some variants are, for needs to function—as well as those that cause poor eat and avoid example, higher in fat and fibre but lower in protein.) health. And everyone’s microbiome is unique. Artificial meat and fish grown from animal stem­ A landmark in the idea of personalised nutrition cells—which in 2034 surpassed the traditional variety was a study published in 2015 by researchers at the by sales volume—also come in metabo­type varieties Weizmann Institute in Israel. They devised an algo­ that include different ratios of the fat, protein, miner­ rithm based on artificial intelligence that could accu­ als and vitamins found in “real” animal products. Res­ rately predict an individual’s response to any given taurant menus, too, increasingly cater to the most food, measured by continuous blood­glucose moni­ prevalent metabo­types among their clientele. toring with a small device attached to the upper arm. One of the most contentious topics discussed at Da­ Spikes in blood glucose after meals are known markers vos was how to make personalised nutrition more af­ for weight gain and a panoply of metabolic disorders. fordable. The first­generation services, offered in the The algorithm used data on lifestyle, medical back­ early 2020s, started at several hundred dollars for ini­ ground and the composition of the microbiome. With­ tial tests, and hefty monthly fees thereafter. Today’s in three years scientists in America, Britain and Ger­ most basic plans are about 80% cheaper, after adjust­ many had replicated the Israeli team’s work and the ing for inflation. Users who let providers sell their per­ business of personalised nutrition entered a new era. sonal data get hefty discounts, though some regulators During the early 2020s the number of startups of­ are looking to curtail the practice. Employers, health fering bespoke nutritional advice by algorithm soared. insurers and governments are increasingly subsidis­ Some used mail­in samples of body fluids or continu­ ing personalised­nutrition plans and offering vouch­ ous monitoring devices to track blood levels of glu­ ers and other perks to obedient users. cose, lipids, vitamins and so on. A few, including But cost is not the only hurdle to greater uptake. In DayTwo, Million Friends and Zoe, did microbiome England, the National Health Service offers a free plan mapping too (through genomic analysis of everything to everyone, along with subsidised personal devices found in a person’s stool sample). Many firms did just that can be paired with it. This helps explain why the bare minimum: checking for a handful of genes about 70% of adults in England now use a personal­ that had been linked with certain reactions to various ised­nutrition service, the highest rate in the world. foods. This had limited utility. By the late 2020s the Convincing the remaining 30%, which includes many market had reached maturity after a brutal shake­out. of those who stand to benefit the most from changing their diets, will take a lot more than free gadgets. Many Soup-to-nuts service take a dim view of the whole idea, because of conspira­ A handful of firms have thrived and are now house­ cy theories that doctors are struggling to dispel. hold names. EatLogic, the second­largest, agreed last In the final debate on the main stage at Davos, the month to be acquired by Google, subject to regulatory majority of speakers were optimistic about the future approval. The leaders all have essentially the same potential of the technology, while others worried business model. Their apps and algorithms identify about the difficulty of expanding adoption within what people should eat and avoid, and keep track of these more “hesitant” groups. The discussion ended what is in their cupboards, refrigerators and online on a bittersweet note. Personalised nutrition, it seems, shopping carts. ai­generated recipes use flavour com­ is not to everyone’s taste. binations favoured by leading chefs. The apps also an­ • alyse restaurant menus and recommend which dishes to order—sometimes with minor tweaks, such as swapping a vegetable or changing a salad dressing. All this helps people make good food choices. Accuracy has steadily improved as the implants and wearable devices paired with these services have become small­ er, cheaper and more capable. Makers of kitchen appliances, such as Philips and Samsung, have been central to the personalised­nutri­ tion ecosystem since the early 2020s. At Davos their chief executives talked about the challenges—and op­ portunities for public health—of developing cheaper models for emerging markets, where the number of middle­class households is growing fast. (Obesity is also most common in that demographic segment.) In­ dustry bosses reckon that in countries like India and Kenya, about 20% of households can afford a smart fridge, though one with far fewer features than the models that are now standard in America. In 2034 just over half of American households had a smart fridge linked to a personal­nutrition account. The food industry has also adapted surprisingly quickly to the personalised­nutrition revolution, giv­

012 10 What If? The future of health The Economist July 3rd 2021

→ If smartphones For many years the company’s approach to health became personal An Apple a day tracking has focused on the Apple Watch. Even the health assistants original model, launched in 2015, could measure movement and heart rate. Since then, sensors have September 2028 been added to measure heart activity, blood pressure, body temperature and levels of oxygen, sugar and alco­ hol in the blood. In addition, software tweaks have granted it the ability to spot fevers, falls, irregular heart rhythms and early signs of dementia. But not everyone wants (or can afford) to buy a fan­ cy watch with all these features. Meanwhile, the mar­ ket in consumer­health devices has boomed. With its new range of add­on accessories, Apple has both ex­ panded and unbundled its health­tracking features. Unlike the clunky devices available at pharmacies, Ap­ ple’s are elegant, require minimal setup, integrate CUPERTINO seamlessly with Apple handsets and are aimed at peo­ The latest model of Apple’s iconic iPhone is built ple with specific concerns. A $49 device for people around health-monitoring features. An imagined with diabetes, for example, offers blood­sugar moni­ scenario from 2028 toring, while a $69 device for those with respiratory conditions includes an oximeter and a spirometer. n 2019 tim cook, then boss of Apple, gave an inter­ Other sensors focus on monitoring of sleep, hyper­ Iview in which he said, “if you zoom out into the futu­ tension, coeliac disease and fertility. Several have yet re…and you ask the question, ‘What was Apple’s great­ to win regulatory approval. In the past three years est contribution to mankind?’ it will be about health.” alone, Apple has acquired a dozen firms that make It sounded like standard­issue ceo boosterism at the home­diagnostics tools, not all of which can be built time. But nearly a decade later, with this week’s an­ into a watch or a smartphone. So it makes sense to start nouncement of the iPhone XX (pronounced “iPhone selling some health devices and services separately. 20”), might his prediction be about to come true? Alongside these devices, Apple unveiled a range of The latest iPhone is not so much a phone as a perso­ extra subscription services. The diabetes package, for nal medical­data hub. Some of its features are up­ instance, includes a nifty app that guesses the gly­ grades of existing functions, such as tracking of sleep, caemic index and nutritional and calorific content of menstruation and movement, and seamless access to any food at which you point your iPhone’s camera. health records and other personal documents. Physi­ After two weeks of learning about your diet, the app cally, the device itself looks much the same—little has starts subtly suggesting substitutions and changes to changed about these slim black rectangles over the your eating patterns. Each accessory comes with a past 15 years. Instead, it is the myriad accessories un­ year’s subscription to the relevant service. And while veiled this week that define the iPhone XX. They could some accessories are compatible with older iPhones, be game­changers for both personal and public health. only the new model works with all of them. All of this could be a boon for public health. The more people walk around with devices constantly monitoring their vital signs, the more likely it is that ailments can be caught early, and outbreaks of infec­ tious diseases nipped in the bud. Yet there are huge worries, too. The first is privacy. Apple touts the iPhone as a secure repository for per­ sonal data of all kinds, and emphasises its model of storing and processing data locally, on the user’s de­ vice, rather than in the cloud. It also allows users to share data with medical specialists and participate in trials approved by its semi­autonomous data­ethics committee. But privacy activists say Apple’s rules are opaque and confusing. The second concern is fairness. Most people cannot afford an iPhone. Apple’s devices will therefore mostly benefit those who already have access to good diagnostics and doctors. There is also cause for optimism, however. When Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, it seemed implau­ sible that just over a decade later half the world’s pop­ ulation would possess a smartphone. If the past two decades are any guide, other companies (such as Sam­ sung and Google) will copy Apple’s ideas—spurring an outburst of competition, innovation and mass adop­ tion in health­monitoring and diagnostics, as previ­ ously happened in handsets. That, even more than what Apple does with its own devices, may be the true contribution it makes to humankind.•

012 11 What If? Health and science

→ If marmosets The marmosets were originally brought to the lived on the Moon Mrs Chippy’s Moon as unwilling participants in a vital research pro­ ject. Marmosets are light—even under Earth gravity— and reasonably easy to care for, but they have placen­ benediction tas much more like those of humans than any other animal their size, and reasonably short gestation peri­ February 2055 ods. That made them ideal for looking at a fundamen­ tal question: can humans have healthy pregnancies in the low gravity of the Moon, where things weigh only one­sixth what they do on Earth? In the 2020s and 2030s, the years of what the novel­ ist Wil McCarthy called the “Rich Man’s Sky”, questions of obstetrics and gynaecology received remarkably lit­ tle attention. For many, the idea of staying in space long enough for such things to matter made little sense—space stations in Earth orbit and bases on the CAIRD COLLECTIVE, LUNA Moon were places for fixed­length work contracts and A primate colony set up to explore one aspect of research sojourns, or for tourism. Babies were no more the human condition has ended up illuminating of an issue than they were in isolated 20th­century another. An imagined scenario from 2055 Antarctic research outposts. There were, as it happens, a few babies born in Ant­ hey can, at times, look somewhat sinister, their arctica even back then, when its ice cover was all but Tfaces oddly small for their heads, their white ear intact. The Argentine and Chilean governments both tufts jutting out almost aggressively. Their ability to saw the creation of natives on the continent as a way to throw themselves at people across seemingly unfeasi­ establish sovereignty and arranged births to that end. ble distances can be unsettling, and their buzzing and But there was no reason to think that Antarctica was shrieking takes a lot of getting used to, as does their inimical to pregnancy and infancy. The long­term smell. But the members of the Caird collective will not health effects of low gravity and microgravity—which hear a word spoken against the marmosets with whom for those in orbit include brittle bones, muscle wast­ they share their spaces at the Moon’s South Pole. As ing and eye disease—were something else. Adults they sit in their insulated caves hoovering moondust could counter some of these effects with treadmills out of the animals’ tails, few of the Cairders can imag­ and tension cords. But as the title of an early paper on ine their life on the rim of Shackleton crater without the subject succinctly put it, “The fetus cannot exer­ them—and none wants to. The marmosets of the cise like an astronaut.” Moon are the first and best example of what has turned Even those, like Elon Musk, who talked of perma­ out to be a fundamental fact of space flight: that the nent settlements on Mars spent little time working on further humans get from Earth, the more they benefit the question. It was left to a small team of scientists in from the companionship of other Earthly animals. the Japanese modules of the Artemis base founded in

012 12 What If? The future of health The Economist July 3rd 2021

2029 by America and its allies to explore the question ↓ than the settlement’s electrostatic air­filtration sys­ experimentally with the help of marmosets, gene­ Superforecast tems is open to question. But it is clearly more thera­ splicing technology, intra­uterine monitoring devices peutic. And the marmosets enjoy the attention. and a giant centrifuge. When will the rst The oldest Earth­born marmoset, New Mrs Chippy They had some success. Like human fetuses, mar­ human have lived (who is, despite his name, male) enjoys an honorary moset fetuses spend most of their gestation with a for 180 days on or seat on the collective’s council. He has now reached density equal to that of the amniotic fluid around under the surface the age of 31with no obvious signs of ageing other than them, a neutral buoyancy that leaves them indifferent of the moon? a pelt almost as white as his ear tufts. This is seen as a to local gravity; only relatively late on do differences good omen for human longevity among those Cairders due to gravity start to crop up. After a few years of trial Before 2030 who refuse to countenance a return to Earth. In Japan, and error, and some dainty gene­editing to rebalance 5% by contrast, laboratory marmosets rarely make it past the rate at which bones grow when not stressed their 21st birthday. through use, the researchers developed a regime in­ volving hormone treatments for the mothers and reg­ 2030 to 2039 sans everything ular late­pregnancy sessions in their custom­made 50% The most salient biological, as opposed to sociologi­ room­sized centrifuge, known as the marmo­go­ cal, novelty among Moon­born marmosets is a very round. This reliably produced pups with strong­ high prevalence of adolescent­onset blindness. The enough bones and muscles and little by way of defor­ 2040 to 2049 constellation of eyesight problems known as “Space­ mity, though their tails were impressively long even by 23% flight Associated Neuro­ocular Syndrome” (sans) has marmoset standards. been studied since early this century. In adult humans Unfortunately, in 2038 that research was interrupt­ sans normally develops only during long stays in the ed by the geopolitical meltdown of the wolf­and­wimp Not before 200 microgravity conditions of space stations; it is rare and war and then by the 26 months of the Great Grounding. 32% mild among humans on the Moon. But in marmosets With all powered flight within or through the Earth’s born in low gravity it develops swiftly and severely at atmosphere prohibited, the various Moon bases the onset of puberty and leads to almost complete loss seemed doomed even after they agreed to pool their re­ of vision. sources to create what became known as the Polyna­ There is as yet no agreed explanation for this pa­ tional James Caird Collective. With all the group’s bio­ thology. Some researchers believe it is not in fact grav­ tech know­how turned to increasing food production ity­related but the result of an off­target effect of the and nutrient recycling, the marmosets were at first ig­ gene editing which realigned the calcium pathways nored and then freed to roam within the bases. Their used in bone growth, but it is hard to square this with effect on morale was instantaneous and profound. the similarity to sans as experienced by genotypical adult humans. Others think its onset could be avoided Primates inter pares if newborn pups were required to spend more, or all, of The importance of companion animals to the mental their time in the simulated Earth­normal gravity of the health of people engaged in a homeless lifestyle was centrifuge. But it has proved hard to test this hypothe­ well documented in pre­war societies. It has been sug­ sis. Infants that have spent any time at all in lunar gested that the effect of the marmosets on the Caird gravity are greatly distressed by the rigours of the cen­ collective was similar; cut off from Earth, the humans trifuge and will not suckle when put into it. And Cair­ were more homeless than any group of people had ev­ ders are unanimous in their opposition to anything er been before. Caring for, playing with and grooming that causes marmosets distress. marmosets also became a basis for bonding between The blind marmosets are not badly off. Their sib­ humans, many of whom had not known each other be­ ling groups and human companions provide what lit­ fore the Grounding, and some of whose countries had tle practical support they need. And they are happier been adversaries in the war. By the time the mysteri­ than sighted marmosets to travel in the pouches which ous entity responsible for the Great Grounding finally many Cairders have incorporated into the suits they abandoned its control of the Earth’s air­traffic­control use for working on the lunar surface. Sighted marmo­ and missile­defence systems, allowing traffic with the sets are clearly disturbed by the harsh monochrome Moon to resume, the marmosets had become an indis­ landscape, even when emotionally supported with the pensable part of the settlers’ new identity and society. amplified sound of their companion’s heartbeat. Few believe that a lack of companion animals was, in Sudden­onset sans leaves the question of whether itself, the reason that the Mars base failed during the human children can be born and raised on the Moon Grounding. But it surely did not help. unanswered. It is sometimes suggested that a blind The bond between the Moon’s larger and smaller woman happy with the idea of a child who might also primates persisted even as the rigours of separation be blind could choose to join the collective and explore came to an end. Almost all Cairders still dislike spend­ the issue. But bringing a child to term would require a ing any significant time deprived of marmoset compa­ centrifuge capable of holding a grown human, rather ny. They cuddle them and relish their low­gravity acro­ than a 250­gram marmoset. There is no appetite batics. In a joking way that seems, at some level, not to among Cairders for devoting resources to such a pro­ be a joke, they treat the abnormally long tails of the ject, and their juche ethic of self­sufficiency will not let Moon­born marmosets as a sign of providence, hold­ them accept funding for such experiments from Earth. ing the tail­fur to be particularly good at picking up Thus how well humans may eventually be able to moondust. The dust, which can cause lung disease, in­ breed on alien worlds remains unknown, even today. filtrates their habitats despite all the airlock precau­ That they will take animal companions with them, tions; its suppression is a constant battle. Whether though, now seems certain. And some of those com­ Superforecaster hoovering it out of tails which accumulate it in the probability predictions panions will surely have shocking­white ear tufts, odd manner of a feather duster is in fact more effective Source: Good Judgment little faces and very long tails.•

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 What If? The future of health 13

“cognitive training”, a set of computer­based mental gymnastics. They also insisted she maintain an active social life, which was not easy for a widow whose only family lived far away in Tokyo. So she began attending thrice­weekly informal gatherings at a so­called “De­ mentia Café”, of which Japan had many by the mid­2020s. Most had been set up early in the century for people suffering a mild version of the condition. But during the 2030s something unexpected hap­ pened. The change was almost unnoticed at first, but then surprisingly fast, as old people with dementia died, and the incidence of new cases quickly shrank to almost zero. The informal gatherings were renamed “Anti­Dementia Cafés”, in recognition of their effec­ tiveness, with other measures, at keeping dementia at bay. Back in 2020, such an outcome had seemed incon­ ceivable. Ms Watanabe had watched as her elder sis­ ter’s “senior moments” of mild cognitive impairment progressed, like an inexorable tide, into severe forget­ fulness and confusion. Ultimately her sister could not recognise her own children and required care around the clock. Thirty years ago, when The Economist pub­ lished a special report on dementia, that same tide seemed destined to engulf the world. Dementia is not solely a condition of old age, but the risk of developing it rises sharply with the years. Japan, as the world’s oldest country, was suffering → If dementia was worse than anywhere. In 2020, with 28% of the popu­ preventable and Novel treatments lation aged over 65 and 2.4m people over 90, including treatable more than 70,000 centenarians, it also had the highest percentage of people with dementia: about 4%, or 5m August 2050 people. With high life expectancy at birth (81 for men, 87 for women), low birth rates (seven births per 1,000 people in 2020 and falling), and low immigration, that percentage seemed certain to grow rapidly. Nobody knew how Japan was going to find the car­ ers to look after so many bewildered old folk; nor where the money to pay them would come from. Simi­ lar worries weighed on every country in the world. Just behind Japan demographically were greying west European countries such as Italy and Portugal, and the Asian tigers: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and

MATSUYAMA Taiwan. And the same trends—longer lifespans and How behavioural changes and new therapies lower fertility rates—affected the rest of the world. turned the tide against dementia. An imagined China already had more people with dementia than scenario from 2050 any other country—an estimated 9.5m people. Yet since the early 2030s dementia has been in re­ treat. The advantages this has brought are incalculable eluctantly, watanabe keiko puts down her both in terms of human misery relieved and economic Rbook. She enjoys Tolstoy so much more in the orig­ benefits gained. The global cost of caring for people inal Russian, she explains. When she first decided to with dementia doubled during the 2020s to $2trn a learn it, a decade ago in 2040, she was already 82, and year. But then it began to decline. Millions of people felt a little old for the endeavour. But the doctors who who would otherwise have required care were able to monitored her were delighted: that, they purred, stay economically active—and millions more who would be just excellent for her brain. They had been would have had to provide that care, at home or in resi­ watching her closely ever since a routine test back in dential facilities, were freed to do other jobs. 2023, when she was 65, identified her as being at high Part of what turned the tide was a trend in some risk of developing dementia. So terrifying was this rich countries towards healthier ways of life. Even by prospect that she meekly submitted herself to many of 2020, there was evidence that the age­specific inci­ the recommendations they made about her lifestyle, dence of dementia was going down. A study published as did many of her neighbours on Shikoku island. that year in the journal Neurology followed nearly Much of that medical advice echoed public­health 50,000 people in America and Europe between 1988 campaigns about reducing the chances of contracting and 2015. It found that 8.6% developed dementia. But heart disease, cancer and diabetes: exercise regularly, the risk of being among them had, remarkably, fallen eat sensibly, drink little alcohol, keep blood pressure by an average of about 13% a decade, from about a one low. But it also included maintaining an active mind. in four chance for a 75­year­old in 1995 to less than one The doctors occasionally put Ms Watanabe through in five by 2015.

012 14 What If? The future of health The Economist July 3rd 2021

→ If an AI won the Nobel prize Rage against the for medicine machine December 2036

STOCKHOLM Should the greatest prize in medical research really be awarded to a non-human? An imagined scenario from 2036

More important, though, was a new international t was a scene that the Nobel committee had dearly focus on finding ways of preventing or treating de­ Ihoped to avoid. As the recipients of this year’s prizes mentia. At first, the coronavirus pandemic of 2020­22 filed into the Stockholm Concert Hall to take their had seemed to set this back. Long a poor relation in seats, dozens of protesters, including several former funding and papers published to other diseases such laureates, clashed with police in the streets outside. as cancer, dementia research seemed to assume an They had gathered to express their opposition to the even lower priority as resources were ploughed into unprecedented decision to award the Nobel prize in combating the virus. But the pandemic highlighted physiology or medicine to an artificial intelligence. the extent and danger of dementia. In some countries The committee’s citation recognised yulya—the it was the biggest single pre­existing condition of peo­ nickname of a machine­learning system officially ple who died of covid­19. known as System for Automated Lymphoma Diagno­ A surge in funding for dementia research and a sis—as the discoverer of ancillary vulnerability, a growing sense of urgency about the scale of the pro­ mechanism whereby specific pairs of antibiotics, blem coincided with a tipping­point in neuroscience. working in tandem, can prove effective against bacte­ The first and most important breakthrough was the de­ ria that are otherwise resistant. The committee esti­ velopment of a simple blood test, like the one that Ms mates that in the 18 months since the discovery, which Watanabe took in 2023. Until then, all that had been occurred when the death rate associated with the fail­ available were cognitive tests followed by an expen­ ure of existing antibiotics had risen to around 2.5m a sive brain scan or intrusive lumbar puncture. The new year, yulya’s work has saved around 4m lives, both test could predict, decades in advance, how likely it through direct treatment of infections and by allowing was that someone would in later life develop Alzheim­ the resumption of surgical procedures, including cae­ er’s disease—much the most common of the dozens of sarean sections, that were considered too dangerous causes of dementia, accounting for 60­80% of cases. without antibiotics. Identifying those at risk early meant that existing Bringing to an end the greatest global public­health therapies such as aducanumab, a treatment for Alz­ crisis since the coronavirus pandemic of 2020­22 heimer’s which had little effect once symptoms were would, you might have thought, be considered qualifi­ far advanced, could be deployed early enough to make cation enough for anyone, whether human or mach­ a difference. And a stream of new treatments followed. ine, to win the Nobel prize. But the decision has proved The next successes came with rare genetic conditions hugely controversial. Though the statutes of the Nobel such as Huntington’s disease and frontotemporal de­ Foundation have historically been interpreted as im­ mentia, which could be treated with antisense oligo­ plying that only a human can win the award, another nucleotides and mrna therapies. Then came new of its dictates was deemed to take precedence: recogni­ treatments for Alzheimer’s (which turned out to be an tion for having “conferred the greatest benefit to hu­ umbrella term for a variety of conditions susceptible mankind” in the preceding year. Another factor be­ to different medicines), and vascular dementia. hind the break with tradition was a demographic shift It had long been known that the last of Shake­ in the prize committee. When two of the committee’s speare’s seven ages of man—“second childishness and 23 five members succumbed to bacterial infections last mere oblivion”—was not inevitable, but bad luck to year, younger replacements were elected, both of which people became more prone the older they grew. The number of whom happened to have used machine­learning sys­ In recent decades researchers have found ways for women who won tems in their doctoral research. people to improve their odds, both through novel a Nobel prize in yulya was originally built to tackle a different pro­ treatments, and indeed reading novels. At 92, Ms Wa­ physics, chem- blem: finding more effective cancer treatments. One of tanabe is already contemplating her next challenge. As istry or medicine the world’s most advanced causal nets, it is one of a she sets out to discuss “War and Peace” with her between 1901 and new generation of artificial­intelligence systems com­ friends at the café, she says she might tackle Shake­ 2020. The number bining the pattern­recognition skills of conventional speare in English next.• of men is 599 “deep” neural networks with the ability to distinguish

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 What If? The future of health 15

causation from mere correlation. By examining re­ yulya seems sole credit, a position that has prompted the departure cords from patient databases, in conjunction with a unlikely to be of several members of her original team in the past corpus of papers from medical journals and historical the last ai to year. She even refused to go to Stockholm to receive data from pharmaceutical companies, it sought to the award on yulya’s behalf from the queen of Sweden. identify the patterns of symptoms that led to the most win a Nobel “It’s not my prize,” she says. severe outcomes, in order to diagnose them earlier. It ais are commonly used to predict the onset of dis­ was also programmed to evaluate the effectiveness of eases like Alzheimer’s, make personalised treatment different treatments, including combinations of treat­ recommendations and enhance the diagnostic abili­ ments, in order to suggest new therapeutic regimens ties of physicians. And the use of ai in drug discovery, that could be tested in patients. in particular to help pharmaceutical companies wade Its focus shifted, however, when a software up­ through databases, is not new. In 2020 an algorithm grade in 2034 accidentally gave it access to all recent developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technolo­ papers in medical journals, rather than just those as­ gy made headlines when it identified a new antibiotic. sociated with cancer. yulya duly began to crunch data Dubbed halicin, after the computer in the film “2001: A relating to antimicrobial resistance, which accounted Space Odyssey”, it proved to be effective against some for a steadily growing proportion of medical­research resistant bacteria, but was limited in its scope. “Ancil­ papers as the crisis intensified. At first, its requests for lary vulnerability makes halicin look like a homeo­ more data in specific areas, and suggestions for new pathic treatment, like a placebo,” says Una Científica, a approaches to treatment, were thought to be errors, researcher at the Houssay Institute in Buenos Aires. because they did not relate to cancer. Then yulya’s op­ Even so, the Nobel committee’s reference to yulya’s erators realised what had happened, and saw that it “discovery” has angered those who see it as little more had used its reasoning capabilities to build a testable than a clever tool. “yulyais an ai capable of winning a hypothesis: the forerunner of what would become an­ Nobel. That is not the same thing as an ai that’s capa­ cillary vulnerability. It highlighted the data that would ble of discovery,” says Hars Kritik of the European Ro­ be needed to validate the hypothesis, including specif­ botics Institute in Prague. He argues that even the best ic guidelines as to how it should be collected. “It ais are only useful in specialised areas like drug de­ amounted to a full­scale programme of research,” says sign, where large quantities of data are married to Anisha Rai, one of yulya’s creators. well­defined metrics of success. Saying that they can Under less exceptional circumstances, such trials make discoveries, he says, waving a placard outside might never have been authorised. Many funding bo­ the concert hall, is “flawed anthropomorphism”. dies require scientists to lay bare the reasoning pro­ Rightly or wrongly, yulya is unlikely to be the last cess of aisystems, in order to be sure that their recom­ artificial intelligence to win a Nobel prize. Sources mendations do not lead to deadly conclusions. Dr Rai within the Nobel Foundation say that similar nomina­ and her colleagues got funding for yulya’s trial by tions have been received for prizes in physics and playing down its role in suggesting the hypothesis. chemistry, as ai systems are used to search for new Only when the results showed promise did they pub­ materials and chemical compounds suitable for use in lish yulya’s original proposals. batteries, solar panels and carbon­capture mem­ That, in turn, led to a heated debate about whether branes. Given the chaos that erupted in Stockholm this yulya, or its creators, deserved credit for the break­ week, however, the chances of an ai winning the No­ through. Dr Rai continues to insist that yulyadeserves bel peace prize seem rather more remote.•

012 16 What If? Health in history

might cause disease. At the time, doctors followed the doctrine of Hippocrates, believing disease was caused by an imbalance of the “humours” within the body (blood, phlegm, yellow bile and black bile). Epidemic diseases, meanwhile, were attributed to miasma, the “bad air” given off by swamps or decomposing matter. Suggestions that disease might be transmitted by tiny living things were rejected by doctors. But the advent of the microscope showed these tiny creatures existed. Robert Hooke, an English scientist, published depic­ tions of mucor, a microbial fungus, in the 1660s, and van Leeuwenhoek spotted what are now called proto­ zoa and bacteria. Could the idea that tiny organisms caused disease have caught on in the late 17th century? This notion, now known as germ theory, was only embraced in the second half of the 19th century. In the 1840s Ignaz Semmelweis, a Hungarian doctor, realised the importance of hand­washing and sterilisation of surgical instruments, but was ignored. In the 1850s John Snow traced cholera deaths in London to a neigh­ bourhood water pump. Louis Pasteur demonstrated in the 1860s that fermentation and putrefaction depend­ ed on living micro­organisms that could be killed by heating. Joseph Lister, a British surgeon, then convinc­ ingly showed that using antiseptics to sterilise surgi­ cal instruments and clean wounds saved lives. Yet there was no practical reason why germ theory → If germ theory could not have arisen in the 1680s. As David Wootton, a had caught on Germ of an idea historian at the University of York, puts it, “an intellec­ sooner tual revolution that should have taken place failed to occur”. A better understanding of hygiene could have saved countless lives lost in childbirth, in surgery and on the battlefield. If one country had embraced germ theory before its rivals, it might even have gained a military advantage as European powers vied to build foreign empires. There was nothing to stop anyone do­ ing Pasteur’s experiments or reaching Lister’s conclu­ sions in the 1680s. So why didn’t they? The key obstacle, says Mr Wootton, was not intel­ lectual but cultural. Doctors were conservative and re­ garded new, experiment­based findings as a challenge to their professional identity. While astronomers rushed to adopt telescopes, which transformed their The idea that tiny micro-organisms cause disease understanding of the universe, doctors turned a blind was embraced only in the 19th century. But could eye to the new worlds revealed by the microscope. List­ it have been discovered sooner? er was a notable exception: trained as a doctor and sur­ geon, he learned about microscopy (and micro­organ­ isms) from his father, an amateur naturalist who de­ ntonie van leeuwenhoek, a 17th­century Dutch vised an improved form of microscope. Lister was thus Abusinessman and scientist, was inordinately able to bridge the gap between science and medicine. proud of his clean teeth. Every morning he scrubbed And his status as a professor of surgery, not to mention them with salt before rinsing his mouth with water. surgeon to Queen Victoria, gave him the authority to After eating, he carefully cleaned his teeth with a put his methods into practice, despite initial mockery, toothpick. Few people his age, he remarked in a letter and gather clear evidence of their effectiveness. in 1683 (when he was 50), had such clean and white Anyone trying to do the same in the 1680s would teeth. Yet when he looked closely, he found “there re­ have had to have been a doctor, a surgeon and a mi­ mains or grows between some of the molars and teeth croscopist—separate groups at the time. They would 1.35 a little white matter”—now called dental plaque. also have needed support among the political or med­ As an expert microscopist who had observed tiny ical elite. Pasteur’s and Lister’s theories were more organisms in water a few years earlier, van Leeuwen­ readily accepted because of their social status, notes The size, in hoek wondered whether they might also be present in Corinne Doria, a historian at the School of Advanced microns, of the this white matter. A microscope showed that it did in­ Studies of Tyumen. “Miasmatic theory was medical or­ smallest detail deed contain “many very small living animals, which thodoxy—one single person could not undo it,” she visible using van moved very prettily”. His drawings of them, which he says. It was the slow accumulation of evidence, and Leeuwenhoek’s sent to the Royal Society in London, are considered the waning confidence in humoral medicine, that enabled best surviving first definitive evidence of bacteria. germ theory to prevail. Like diseases, new ideas can microscope Few people suspected that such micro­organisms spread quickly, but only in a suitable environment.•

012 Middle East & Africa The Economist July 3rd 2021 41

Covid-19 in Africa higher than the peak of the first. Dr Moeti highlights two reasons for the Third time unlucky strength of the latest wave. The first is pub­ lic fatigue. In rich countries covid­19 was seen as a once­in­a­lifetime event to be en­ dured until vaccines arrived; in many Afri­ can ones it is another burden among many, with no sign of relief. Governments have JOHANNESBURG been slower to impose lockdowns this The latest wave of the pandemic could be Africa’s worst yet time around. They have no money to pay n the early months of the pandemic it and rising steeply. Almost a quarter of tests people to stay at home, fear the effects on Iwas common to hear that Africa had been are positive, suggesting that many cases commerce and note the lack of public spared the worst of covid­19. Experts point­ are going undetected. “The latest surge clamour for restrictions. "The third wave ed to low official rates of illness or death threatens to be Africa’s worst yet,” says has come with a severity that most coun­ and speculated about whether they were a Matshidiso Moeti, the head of the World tries were not prepared for,” adds John result of youthful demography, Africa’s ex­ Health Organisation (who) in Africa. Cases Nkengasong, the director of Africa Centres perience of dealing with infectious diseas­ are rising especially quickly in 12 coun­ for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa es such as Ebola and hiv, or something else tries, she says, though “health systems are cdc), a continent­wide public­health body. entirely, perhaps underlying immunity. already pushed to breaking point” in many The second is the arrival of new vari­ The premise was shaky, however. Most Af­ more. In Namibia, Uganda and Zambia, ants. Not every African country can se­ rican countries test tiny numbers of peo­ among other places, oxygen is running out quence virus genomes. But more than half ple. Only a few keep good track of deaths. and hospital beds are full. The who calcu­ have reported the Alpha variant first de­ One that does, South Africa, has suffered lates that, within weeks, the Africa­wide tected in Britain and the Beta variant ini­ one of the world’s highest levels of excess caseload of the third wave will surpass the tially spotted in South Africa. Nearly a mortality during the pandemic. The san­ peak of the second, which in turn was quarter have reported the Delta variant guine view also neglected how, even if Afri­ linked to India’s catastrophic second wave. ca’s waves really were less deadly than else­ Those countries include Congo and → Also in this section where, there might also be more of them Uganda. Neither has many confirmed cas­ because of low vaccination rates. 42 Jailing Jacob Zuma es of the virus. Congo, a country of 87m Today there is little sign of the conti­ people, has recorded 40,000, fewer than 43 Ethiopia’s army is routed nent being spared. As of June 28th the sev­ Glasgow, a Scottish city of 630,000 people. en­day rolling average of confirmed cases 44 Egypt gets active in Gaza But, in an indication of covid­19’s true in South Africa was 267 per million people, spread, 32 of the country’s 600­odd mps 45 A shortage of local fare in the Gulf more than five times the global average, have died from the disease. In Uganda

012 42 Middle East & Africa The Economist July 3rd 2021

more than 200 mps and parliamentary staff has yet to start jabbing arms because its have tested positive in the past few weeks. late president, John Magufuli, denied the This is part of a broader trend. As of Febru­ usefulness of vaccines. South Africa reject­ ary, Africa accounted for 17 of the 24 gov­ ed a shipment of AstraZeneca doses on the ernment ministers or heads of state who grounds that data suggested it would not are reported to have died from covid­19, stop mild infection, an argument criticised noted a paper in the British Medical Journal. by scientists who said it would probably South Africa is at the centre of the conti­ reduce the risk of hospitalisation and nent’s third wave. On June 27th President death. In Gauteng those who can are seek­ Cyril Ramaphosa announced a partial lock­ ing other options. Diplomatic missions are down, warning that cases would surpass organising their own vaccines. Expatriates previous peaks. Gauteng, the province that are flying home to get jabbed. is home to Johannesburg and about a quar­ But the main reason for low vaccination ter of South Africans, accounts for more rates is simple: a lack of supply. Dr Nkenga­ than half of recent cases. The week to June song notes that African countries have 26th saw more excess deaths in Johannes­ placed enough orders to meet Africa cdc’s burg than at any time since records began target of getting 60% of the continent vac­ in 1997. Hospitals are overwhelmed. Am­ cinated by the end of 2022. The problem bulances drive around looking for beds. In has been turning orders into deliveries. the absence of a government plan, doctors An announcement made on June 30th use WhatsApp groups to find out if other should help. The International Finance hospitals have space. Even the best private Corporation, an arm of the World Bank, The face of contempt hospitals are wrestling with grim deci­ and the American, French and German sions about who gets a spot in intensive­ governments, said they would provide ident has treated with disdain a commis­ care units—in other words, with who lives €600m in financing to help Aspen Pharma­ sion into the “state capture” that took place and who dies. “It’s real ‘Who gets the para­ care, a South African firm, manufacture when he was in office. Mr Zuma repeatedly chute?’ stuff,” says a doctor. vaccines. The deal could help produce as ignored summons to appear before the in­ South Africa is also dealing with public many as 250m single­shot Johnson & John­ quiry, refusing to turn up even after the fatigue, a battered economy and new vari­ son doses for the continent this year, in­ Constitutional Court ordered him to do so. ants. Delta is “rapidly displacing” the Beta cluding 30m for South Africa. Such vol­ Mr Zuma’s absence from the inquiry variant, says Mr Ramaphosa. But the gov­ umes raise the prospect that a fourth wave has proved his undoing. In light of his re­ ernment has added to the carnage. There is could be less deadly than the third. n lentless recalcitrance and his incessant no permanent health minister, following outlandish accusations against the judi­ the suspension of Zweli Mkhize, who is ac­ ciary, the chair of the inquiry, Raymond cused of steering a contract to a firm run by South Africa Zondo, asked the Constitutional Court to associates (he denies the allegations). A intervene again. On June 29th it delivered a large public hospital in Johannesburg is Another kind of verdict that was profound in its argument closed because the provincial government and devastating in its effect. “I am mindful was slow to repair it after a fire in April. Mr capture that, having no constituency, no purse and Ramaphosa’s televised “family meetings” no sword,” said the acting chief justice, Sisi initially won plaudits. But his appearances Khampepe, “the judiciary must rely on JOHANNESBURG are increasingly tone­deaf. The latest re­ moral authority to fulfil its functions.” She In punishing Jacob Zuma, the strictions, which include another ban on went on to sentence Mr Zuma to 15 months Constitutional Court proves its mettle alcohol sales, came late in the day. in prison for his “egregious” and “aggravat­ Inoculation would have lessened the n 1995, a year after his election to the ed” contempt of court and his “scurrilous, impact of the third wave. But just over1% of Ipresidency had brought an end to white unfounded attacks” on judges. Africans have been fully vaccinated. Of the rule, Nelson Mandela spoke to the assem­ The former president has until July 4th nearly 3bn doses administered globally, bled judges at the opening of South Africa’s to hand himself in. (No appeals are allowed fewer than 2% are in Africa. Constitutional Court. “We expect you to against verdicts made by South Africa’s Hesitancy remains a problem. Tanzania stand on guard not only against direct as­ highest court.) If he does not, the police sault on the principles of the constitution,” have a further three days to imprison him. he said, “but against insidious corrosion.” On June 30th a statement by Mr Zuma's Delta wave Since then no one has done more to cor­ foundation described the ruling as "judi­ Gauteng province, South Africa, covid-19 cases rode the institutional pillars of post­apart­ cially emotional". It did not say if he would Seven-day moving average, ’000 heid South Africa than Jacob Zuma. In the turn himself in. 10 2000s he was accused of taking bribes One consequence of the sentence is from a French arms company while deputy that Mr Zuma will travel to his next court Current wave (2021) 8 president; he spoke of how the ruling Afri­ appearance from prison. On July 19th the can National Congress (anc) was “more long­delayed trial into the arms deal will 6 important” than the constitution. After he resume, with the former president facing a Summer wave (22/21) 4 became president in 2009 his reign was as­ potentially lengthier sentence. (Both Mr Winter wave (22) sociated with the wholesale looting of pub­ Zuma and Thales, the French firm, deny  lic funds and the demolition of the parts of any wrongdoing.) Prosecutions related to 0 the state meant to stop graft. his time as president may follow. At 79 Mr Since Cyril Ramaphosa replaced him in Zuma is suddenly facing the possibility of 1 50 100 182150 2018, Mr Zuma and his allies have under­ spending the rest of his life behind bars. He Wave, days mined the new president’s attempts to may end up as a sort of inverted Mandela, Source: Dr Ridhwaan Suliman, senior researcher, CSIR clean up their vandalism. The former pres­ famous for going from the presidency to

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Middle East & Africa 43

prison, rather than the reverse. grip on the party is tightening. That should fathers had in a successful insurgency in The court’s decision will also have po­ make it easier for him to govern. Though the 1980s against the Derg—a communist litical ramifications. Mr Ramaphosa has some acolytes of Messrs Zuma and Ma­ dictatorship—and as their fathers had in a not lived up to his promise—uttered in his gashule may protest against their idols’ de­ conventional war against Eritrea from 1998 first “state of the nation” address to Parlia­ fenestration, most will not want to annoy to 2000. Some Tigrayans were provoked ment—to give South Africa a “new dawn”. the anc’s bigwigs and risk losing the jobs into taking up arms by murders and rapes, His handling of a grim third wave of co­ that the party doles out to loyalists. many committed by Eritrean forces whom vid­19 has been characteristically la­ Yet perhaps the biggest consequence of un officials also accuse of attempting to boured. But in recent months he has forced the Constitutional Court’s decision is for starve Tigray into submission. through important, if belated, economic South Africa as a whole. Under apartheid Then in mid­June the tdf’s fighters measures, such as removing red tape for the rule of law was applied cruelly or selec­ came back down from the hills under the businesses that want to generate their own tively, according to the colour of people’s command of Tsadkan Gebretensae, a veter­ renewable energy and finding private buy­ skin. The transition to democracy brought an Ethiopian army chief who had been at ers for a majority stake in the debt­ridden with it an inspiring, liberal constitution, as the helm during the war with Eritrea, to state­owned airline. The anc’s suspension well as new courts and legal institutions to launch “Operation Alula”, named after a in May of Ace Magashule, its secretary­ defend it. That architecture was rightly ad­ 19th­century general. At first few observers general and an ally of Mr Zuma, has mired across Africa and in many other believed the tdf when it claimed to have strengthened the president’s hand against parts of the world. The Zuma era threat­ defeated several Ethiopian and Eritrean di­ their faction ahead of local elections and a ened to tear it down. The Constitutional visions and taken thousands of prisoners party conference later this year. Though Mr Court has delivered not only a pivotal legal in a succession of battles on the roads to Ramaphosa has little to do with Mr Zuma’s verdict, but also a reminder to the rainbow Mekelle. The Ethiopian government insist­ imprisonment, it will underline that his nation of its founding ideals. n ed it was in full control of the region and was mopping up sporadic resistance. But the truth was exposed when, as quickly as Ethiopia’s civil war they had arrived, Ethiopian troops left, pausing only to dismantle telecommuni­ Defeat in the mountains cations equipment and raid a unoffice. With Ethiopian and Eritrean troops scrambling towards the exit, the federal government announced a unilateral cease­ fire on June 28th, ostensibly on humani­ tarian grounds. More probably it was an ef­ fort to mask the defeat of its forces and al­ What the rout of Ethiopia’s army means for the region low them time to retreat (just days earlier nce the history of Ethiopia’s latest civ­ ment for almost 30 years until it was oust­ Ethiopia’s deputy prime minister had told Oil war is written, the battles of June ed by the protests in 2018 that ushered Abiy Western ambassadors for the first time could well be recounted as one of the great to power. At first the tplfseized control of that his government wanted a ceasefire rebel victories of recent years. For it will ex­ much of the army’s heavy weaponry by and peace talks). plain how a group of insurgents in the attacking federal bases in the region. But However, the tdf is in no mood to halt mountains of Ethiopia’s northern region of the pendulum soon swung in Abiy’s fa­ its offensive. Its spokesman called the gov­ Tigray routed two of Africa’s largest ar­ vour. Federal forces, backed by air power ernment’s ceasefire a “sick joke” and said mies, Ethiopia’s and Eritrea’s, to reclaim and soldiers from neighbouring Eritrea, that the tdf would continue pursuing “en­ Mekelle, their capital. swiftly captured the big towns and cities. emy” forces. Some Tigrayan leaders have At sunset on June 28th—seven months Yet the fighting degenerated into a threatened to fight on northwards, towards to the day after Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s grinding guerrilla war as fighters of the Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, and westwards, prime minister, declared victory over the self­styled Tigrayan Defence Force (tdf) towards the border with Sudan, intending ruling party in Tigray as his troops occu­ took to the hills, much as their grand­ to expel occupying Amhara militias. As The pied Mekelle—Tigrayans came onto the Economist went to press, the tdf appeared streets to celebrate the flight of federal to be in control of most of Tigray, including troops. Officials appointed by Abiy’s gov­ the towns of Axum, Shire and Adwa. ernment to run the region were whisked The priority for all parties ought to be out of town as if from a crime scene. “There ensuring that aid agencies are able to get are celebrations in every house in Me­ access to Tigray, where up to a million peo­ kelle,” said Haile Kiros, a teacher in the city, ple are at risk of starvation because they before phone lines were cut. have been unable to plant crops and be­ The recapture of Mekelle marks a turn­ cause Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have ing­point in an atrocity­filled war that Abiy not allowed in sufficient supplies of food had thought would last just a few weeks. It (see map on next page). Yet Will Davison of has not only scuppered Abiy’s attempt to the International Crisis Group, a think­ bring Tigray to heel by force of arms, but al­ tank based in Brussels, sees signs that offi­ so threatens to break up the factious ethnic cials in Abiy’s government plan to contin­ federation that makes up Africa’s second­ ue to blockade Tigray, allowing in some aid most populous country. but little else. If so, the tdf may seek to The fighting in Tigray started in No­ break the blockade by fighting for access to vember amid a struggle for power between the Sudanese border or trying to topple the Abiy and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation government in Eritrea. Front (tplf), the region’s ruling party. The Abiy, happily, has much to gain by lift­ tplf had controlled the central govern­ From here to Mekelle ing the blockade and starting talks, beyond

012 44 Middle East & Africa The Economist July 3rd 2021

Egypt and Gaza ERITREA Active military*, 221 Asmara 201,750 Sisi sees an opportunity

Adwa SUDAN Shire Tigray Axum

Mekelle GAZA CITY ETHIOPIA Afar Egypt’s dictator is trying to boost his image at home and abroad 13,000 Amhara t first sight one might have thought helpful for Palestinians—but it is more AAbdel­Fattah al­Sisi was running for helpful still for Mr Sisi’s reputation. “Sisi Tigray, humanitarian access, May 31st 221 president of Palestine. Dozens of bill­ was the biggest winner in the war,” says Inaccessible Partial access boards (one is pictured) appeared over­ Omar Shaaban, a political analyst in Gaza. 1 km Source: United Nations OCHA *IISS data night in Gaza this May, each bearing the For a start, it gave him a needed dip­ face of the Egyptian president and an em­ lomatic boost. Mr Sisi had been friendly ensuring the well­being of Tigrayan civil­ phatic quote. “The Palestinian cause is the with America’s former president, Donald ians. For a start it would help to repair his central issue for Egypt,” read one. Main Trump, who referred to the Egyptian ruler relationship with Western governments, roads were lined with Egyptian flags. A as “my favourite dictator”. Mr Trump’s suc­ whose support he needs to rebuild and get crowd of young men stood outside a sea­ cessor, Joe Biden, has been less effusive. Ethiopia’s battered economy back onto its side hotel to cheer the arrival of Abbas Ka­ Many Democrats and some Republicans previous path of rapid growth. By its own mel, Mr Sisi’s intelligence chief, whose are critical of Mr Sisi’s ruthless authoritar­ admission, Ethiopia’s government has motorcade sped into Gaza on a sweltering ianism. Since he took power in 2013 police spent about $2.3bn on the war. Because of summer morning. “You’d think it was have swept up tens of thousands of Egyp­ its concerns about war crimes, America Abdel Nasser come to liberate Palestine,” tians, including a number with American has asked the imf and World Bank to with­ quipped an elderly bystander. citizenship (one, Mustafa Kassem, died in hold economic assistance. America has al­ The scene would have been unthink­ prison last year after a sham trial). so pressed the United Arab Emirates, able a few years ago. Along with Israel, Mr Biden did not speak to Mr Sisi during which has provided Abiy’s government Egypt has maintained a blockade on Gaza his first four months in the White House. with financial support (and possibly since 2007, when Hamas, a militant Islam­ The conflict in Gaza changed that: Mr Sisi arms), not to bail it out. ist group, took power. Relations deteriorat­ received two presidential phone calls in Diplomats are concerned about the ed further in 2013, when Mr Sisi overthrew one week, then a visit from America’s sec­ risks of the conflict spreading beyond Ti­ an elected government led by the Muslim retary of state. According to the official gray’s borders. Eritrea’s dictator, Issaias Af­ Brotherhood. His military­backed govern­ summaries, Mr Biden made only passing werki, may already be regretting his deci­ ment saw Hamas as an outgrowth of the reference to human rights. sion to join the attack on Tigray, largely to Brotherhood and was keen to strangle it. It At home, too, Mr Sisi used the war to his settle scores with the tplf, which had hu­ flooded hundreds of tunnels that ran be­ benefit. Egypt dispatched more than 120 miliated him in the border war. A second tween Egypt and Gaza, cutting off a conduit trucks carrying aid shortly after the cease­ trouncing at its hands is unlikely to for goods (and weapons) into the territory. fire. State media described the convoy as a strengthen his hold on power. But Mr Sisi’s tone has changed since the “gift” from the president, whose face was Foreign officials also worry about a de­ brief war between Israel and Hamas that emblazoned on some of the containers. terioration in relations between Sudan and killed more than 250 Palestinians and 13 Much of the aid was financed by the Tahya Ethiopia. Since November the Sudanese ar­ people in Israel. Egypt brokered the cease­ Misr fund, which was set up to pay for Mr my has been skirmishing with Ethiopian fire that ended the fighting on May 21st. It Sisi’s pet projects. On June 9th Egyptian forces, Amhara militiamen and at least has pledged $500m for reconstruction in state television broadcast its morning some Eritrean troops over a disputed area Gaza and sent convoys of aid. All of this is show from Gaza, the two presenters smil­ of farmland on the border and over a huge new dam under construction on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. In a speech on June 30th Abiy suggested his forces had withdrawn from Tigray in part to redirect their atten­ tion towards the Sudanese front. “Another force threatens us and we need to prepare for that,” he said. Still, the deepest concern of Western diplomats and officials from countries in the region is the stability of Ethiopia’s frag­ ile ethnic federation. Although tplf lead­ ers have yet to call for secession, many young Tigrayans now champion it unam­ biguously. “The only way is for indepen­ dence,” says Tekleberhan Weldeselassie, an Ethiopian air­force pilot who fled abroad at the start of the war. “We Ti­ grayans will never stay together with Ethi­ opia.” Abiy has the almighty task of con­ vincing them to do just that. n Hey, look at me

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Middle East & Africa 45

100 km LEBANON Food in the Gulf Kitchen inconsequential ISRAEL

DUBAI Mediterranean West Sea Bank Why is it so hard to find local fare in the Gulf? Jerusalem visit to the Middle East can feel like what exactly qualifies as “local”.Towns Gaza Strip Gaza Aone endless lunch. Lebanon offers no on the Gulf littoral traded extensively City end of delicacies. Tour guides in Egypt with Asian countries, and those links take their charges for koshari, a bowl full show up on the dinner table. Machboos of carbs topped with tomato sauce. A trip has its roots in biryani, from the Indian EGYPT to Baghdad requires a stop for masgouf, a subcontinent. The informal national Cairo beloved platter of grilled carp (American drink of the Gulf, known locally as karak, Sinai JORDAN troops found Saddam Hussein in 2003 by Nile is a cup of masala chai. For visitors curi­ tracking his fish deliveries). ous about the local fare, Dubai’s tourism Ask residents of the Gulf countries authority suggests a small chain of res­ ing incongruously in front of a ruined where to sample Gulf cuisine, though, taurants that serves up dal (an Indian building festooned with Egyptian flags. and you may be met with blank stares. dish) and ash-e jow(an Iranian soup). They spoke effusively of Egypt’s efforts— Local fare has long been limited to home The oil boom brought millions of described again as a personal initiative by kitchens, while restaurants offer grub migrants, along with their cuisines. The the president. from everywhere else. One restaurateur most celebrated kebab joint in Dubai was Hamas has changed its tune as well. estimates that of the 5,000 or so eateries founded by Iranian émigrés. America has The group cut ties with the Muslim in Dubai, fewer than 1% serve Emirati left its mark, too. Big chains like McDon­ Brotherhood in 2017, declaring itself a food. A glance at a food­delivery app ald’s are ubiquitous, along with more strictly local movement, partly in an effort seems to confirm this: there are more obscure brands (Famous Dave’s, a barbe­ to placate Egypt. Hamas officials now talk options for Hawaiian food. It is one of cue chain, had to tweak its logo for the of their commitment to Egypt’s security, the few places where visitors might Emirati market, since the original fea­ which reflects another change. After Mr Si­ spend a week and never eat a local dish. tures a decidedly non­halal pig). si’s coup they allowed jihadists fighting the In part that is because the Gulf’s In recent years both chefs and govern­ Egyptian government on the Sinai penin­ cuisine was long defined by scarcity. Less ments have made a push to revive the sula to slip into Gaza for medical treatment than 2% of land in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait local fare. Abu Dhabi, the capital of the and use it as a haven. Understandably, that and Oman is arable. Much of that was United Arab Emirates, has asked hotels to enraged the government. The policy was given over to date palms which, along offer local options. Breakfast buffets now quietly halted a few years ago. with meat, yogurt and grains, formed the often feature balaleet, a plate of sweet­ If the current bonhomie between Egypt basis of a simple local diet. The national ened vermicelli topped with eggs, or and Hamas feels a bit forced, it is also a ne­ dish in most Gulf countries, known as chebab, pancakes topped with cream and cessity. Egypt plays a unique role in the re­ kabsa or machboos, is a bed of (imported) date molasses. gion. Qatar, which has given Gaza more rice topped with cuts of meat. And many Younger chefs from Gulf countries than $1bn in aid since 2012, has influence dishes are time­consuming to prepare. have culled recipes from the experts over Hamas. The United Arab Emirates an­ One traditional style of cooking involves (their grandmothers) and experimented nounced diplomatic ties with Israel last burying seasoned meat underground for with modern twists on local dishes. year. But only Egypt is both influential in hours, which is fine for family feasts but Camel­meat sliders topped with date jam Gaza and trusted by Israel’s security estab­ tricky for fast food. would have caused befuddlement a few lishment. So it was better placed than any The Gulf’s cuisine was also shaped by generations ago, but they seem a fitting other country to negotiate the truce be­ commerce, which can make it hard to say match for the Gulf’s modern melting pot. tween Hamas and Israel. Sustaining the ceasefire in Gaza, though, will be difficult. After four rounds of conflict and 14 years of blockade, condi­ tions in the territory are dire. Without a se­ rious effort to ease the blockade and re­ build, another war seems inevitable. Mr Kamel’s trip to Gaza, the highest­level visit by an Egyptian official since the coup, was meant to sort out that problem. Since then he has hosted Israeli officials and Hamas leaders in Cairo for follow­up talks. But progress is scant. Israel is loth to al­ low reconstruction in Gaza until Hamas re­ leases two Israeli civilians held prisoner and the bodies of two Israeli soldiers killed during the previous war, in 2014. Hamas is open to a deal, but it wants to swap its pris­ oners for Palestinians held in Israeli jails, not for reconstruction aid. Mr Sisi got what he wanted from the war. Many Palestinians A sweet discovery in Dubai are sceptical that they will. n

012 46 Europe The Economist July 3rd 2021

Germany, Greece and Turkey turned off. That is perfect for the shallow waters around Greco­Turkish flashpoints. Shifting the balance The addition of six cutting­edge boats is a plus for nato. The alliance’s southern flank is heating up: on June 23rd Russian ships fired shots towards a British destroy­ er in Crimean waters. Two days later Rus­ sia began air and sea exercises in the Medi­ terranean, sparring with a British aircraft­ Turkey’s new German submarines are riling Greece carrier strike group in the region. Then an n the southern shore of the Gulf of The new submarines would compound American nuclear­armed submarine OIzmit, at the Golcuk shipyard, Turkey’s the problem. The Reis­class is a version of showed up in Gibraltar. At the same time, naval future is slowly taking shape. The Germany’s Type 214, which is operated by the subs “will reshape the naval balance first of six German­designed submarines the navies of Portugal, South Korea and between Greece and Turkey”, says Emman­ lies in the water, after being floated out Greece itself. An important feature is air­ uel Karagiannis of King’s College London. from its dock in March. The Piri Reis will independent propulsion (aip), which al­ join the fleet next year; five other Reis­ lows subs to go without the air supply that A two-edged sword class subs will follow in successive years. It a diesel engine would usually require. A The subs could be used for intelligence­ is a triumph for Turkey’s navy—and a traditional diesel­electric sub can stay un­ gathering in disputed waters, including headache for Greece. der water for two or three days. Those with snooping around undersea cables that Over the past year Turkey and Greece, aip can do so for three weeks, says Johan­ Greece plans to build to reach Cyprus, despite both being members of nato, have nes Peters of the Institute for Security Poli­ Egypt and Israel. The subs may be armed sparred in the Mediterranean. Their war­ cy Kiel, and with “almost zero noise emis­ with medium­range anti­ship missiles ships collided last summer after Turkey sions” compared with noisier nuclear­po­ which could “largely neutralise Greek anti­ sent a survey vessel into disputed waters. wered subs, whose reactors cannot be submarine warfare capabilities”, adds Mr Greece responded by rallying allies in Eu­ Karagiannis, although much depends on rope and the Middle East, bought a slew of how well Turkey can integrate its indige­ → Also in this section French warplanes and, in December, an­ nous weapons into the German design. nounced a doubling of defence spending to 47 Europe’s foreign aid Although Greece did not oppose the sub €5.5bn ($6.6bn). That, though, is still less deal when it was agreed in 2009, last year’s 48 Montenegro’s past catches up than half the Turkish level. Turkey’s navy is jousting changed things. “We’re not say­ bigger and newer. And the Anadolu, a Span­ 48 Dick Leonard remembered ing, ‘You shouldn’t sell them to Turkey,’” ish­designed light aircraft­carrier, is in the says a Greek official. “What we are saying 49 Charlemagne: Politics and football final stages of construction. now is, ‘You should not sell them to this

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Europe 47

Turkey.’” Greece wants Germany to halt the two countries over drilling rights and re­ ber but one of Europe’s bigger donors, add­ sale and says that the subs could be sold to lated issues resumed earlier this year, ed a further $300m.) On average, European another country. It points to the example though progress is slow. Kyriakos Mitsota­ countries’ oda rose to 0.5% of their gross of America, which barred Turkey from kis, Greece’s prime minister, met Recep national income (gni). The average among buying f­35 jets two years ago after it Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, on the all donor countries was 0.32%. bought a Russian air­defence system. Yet sidelines of a nato summit on June14th. Yet that is far short of what they have these pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Even so, just over a week later Turkey promised. In 2015 the world’s wealthy Several eu countries limited arms ex­ announced military exercises in the Aege­ countries signed up to the un’s Sustainable ports to Turkey in 2019, following its offen­ an after accusing Greece of breaking an old Development Goals (sdgs), pledging to do­ sive in Syria. But after last year’s kerfuffle understanding to avoid such exercises in nate at least 0.7% of gni to help poor coun­ in the Mediterranean, Germany, Italy, the summer months. Next year the drills tries meet a set of development targets by Spain and others blocked a Greek push for may involve the Piri Reis, watching silently 2030. Only six donor countries met that a full arms embargo. Then on June 13th Ger­ from the deep. n benchmark in 2020, all of them European: many’s ruling parties rejected a motion Sweden, Norway, Luxembourg, Denmark, backed by socialist and Green parties to Germany and Britain. Boris Johnson’s plan stop weapons sales to Turkey. Foreign aid to cut oda to 0.5% of gni means Britain Germany’s resistance to scuttling the will drop out of the club. submarine deal is unsurprising. It is Unsustained Even the more generous donors’ num­ thought to be worth $3.5bn, a hefty sum bers can be misleading. Many countries compared with total German arms exports development goals count money spent on refugees who arrive of $14bn over the past decade. The country in their territory as part of their foreign­aid commands the world market for subma­ budget. Sheltering refugees in Europe, rines, in particular, having sold more than however noble and necessary, does little Development assistance rises, but not 120 of them to 17 navies since the 1960s. The for the countries they come from. Yet dur­ by much latest potential customer is Australia, ing the refugee crisis of 2015­16 this ac­ which is toying with the idea of buying uropean countries are the world’s counting trick made it look as though German Type 214s to fill the gap until new­ Emost generous givers of foreign aid, or European oda was rising. When refugee er French subs arrive in the 2030s. official development assistance (oda). The arrivals slowed, oda seemed to drop again. Yet pecuniary motives are not the eu and European governments donate The refugee crisis led some European whole story. Turkey’s relationship with the close to half the global total. Populist par­ countries to shift aid towards preventing eu and its place in nato have become ties tend to dislike foreign aid, and one migration. This won support in unlikely deeply divisive issues within both institu­ might think that Europe’s rightward tilt quarters: in France, the hard­right Nation­ tions. France, Greece and Cyprus are eager would have caused it to drop. Indeed, aid al Rally party of Marine Le Pen backs aid as to push back at what they see as Turkey’s did fall in the early 2010s during the euro­ a way to keep Africans in Africa. But it leads aggressive and expansionist behaviour. By zone crisis, and again from 2017 to 2019. Yet to projects that poor countries do not need, contrast, Germany—like Italy, Poland and in 2020 both global and European oda rose and is unlikely to work. When people get Spain—wants to prevent the relationship to their highest levels ever: $161bn world­ richer they migrate more, because they can from collapsing in acrimony. wide and $80bn from Europe. afford it. “Sadly, oda is always more a re­ In part, that is to keep migration in Part of the reason was covid­19. eu flection of the politics and society in donor check. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancel­ members provided over $9bn in fresh pan­ countries rather than issues of need in de­ lor, is “obsessed” with the issue, complains demic­related aid to poor countries, most­ veloping countries,” says Andrew Sherriff the Greek official. “She’s allowing Turkey ly for health care. (Norway, not an eu mem­ of the European Centre for Development to blackmail Europe,” he adds. After an eu Policy Management. summit on June 24th, Mrs Merkel said that oda remains insufficient to achieve the the bloc had agreed to provide €3bn for mi­ Keeping up with the Jonssons sdgs’ targets, such as universal education grants in Turkey to follow on from a €6bn Official development assistance, % of GNI and basic health care. The pandemic has package approved in 2016. Although the Selected OECD countries made those goals harder to reach, keeping number of illegal crossings from the east­ students out of school and interrupting 0.20 1.21.00.80.60.4 ern Mediterranean is down by half com­ Sweden childhood vaccination programmes. Do­ pared to last year, there remain over 3m ref­ Luxembourg nations to covax, an international vaccine ugees in Turkey. Denmark fund, are far behind what is needed. And Germany Wider considerations are at play. Some Britain new foreign­aid commitments are tiny in are strategic. Germany sees Turkey as a Netherlands comparison with the massive domestic bulwark on nato’s southern flank, where France spending that European countries have Russia is reasserting itself. Others are do­ Belgium unleashed since covid­19 arrived. The eu Finland mestic. Germany has the largest Turkish Japan set up a €750bn ($910bn) recovery fund for diaspora anywhere in the world, with Canada its members. No such fund exists for the around 3m people of Turkish origin. “Ger­ Ireland world’s least­developed countries. many’s relationship with Turkey is not on­ Austria Sony Kapoor of Re­Define, a think­tank, Hungary ly a matter of foreign policy, but also a do­ Spain advocates front­loading oda by borrowing mestic issue,” says Sinem Adar of the Cen­ Italy now against the future commitments do­ tre for Applied Turkey Studies in Berlin. Slovenia nors have made. That could provide hun­ Portugal It helps Germany’s case that the Medi­ United States dreds of billions of dollars to help poor terranean is calm for now. So far this year Poland countries vaccinate their populations and nato has convened six rounds of talks be­ Slovakia 201 keep their kids in school. European voters tween the Greek and Turkish armed forces, Czech Rep. may not be feeling generous at the mo­ Greece 2020 leading to the creation of a military hotline ment, but increasing aid will seldom do as Source: OECD for use in crises. Negotiations between the much good as it could now. n

012 48 Europe The Economist July 3rd 2021

Montenegro Obituary: Dick Leonard Darkness shrouds Mr Europe the mountain Our erstwhile Brussels correspondent died on June 24th, aged 90 PODGORICA he british correspondents in Brus­ intellectual of the party’s social­demo­ The government totters but the sels in the two decades after Britain cratic wing. In 1970 Dick became the alternatives are unappetising T joined the European club were a talented Labour mp for Romford, but the constitu­ uests in a beachside restaurant where lot. Two went on to edit The Economist, ency’s boundaries soon changed, ending Gthe Bojana river flows lazily into the and one became editor of the Financial his career in Parliament prematurely. sea belt out old Yugoslav pop songs while Times. Another wrote entertaining fic­ Breaking ranks with the party in 1971 to children gambol in the sand. It is just the tion for the Daily Telegraph and went on vote in favour of Britain joining the image that Montenegro’s tourist industry to be Britain’s current prime minister. European Economic Community (the wants to promote, as it struggles to recover Dick Leonard, neither a Eurosceptic nor eec, as it then was) in effect ruled him from the wave of covid­19 that whacked the destined to occupy Downing Street but “a out as a candidate for another seat. At the country last year. But away from holiday true gentleman journalist”,as that Fin­ time it was Labour, not the Tories, who haunts the picture is very different. The ancial Times editor affectionately calls found Europe toxic. government is tottering. Old feuds are rip­ him, went on instead to write numerous In other ways, too, Dick’s career ping Montenegro apart. books about every British prime minister shows how much has changed. After In March the minister of justice ex­ from Walpole onwards. politics came journalism. He worked for pressed doubt that the massacre at Sre­ Not that Dick lacked political ambi­ this newspaper from 1974 to 1985, becom­ brenica in neighbouring Bosnia in 1995, tions of his own. He was the youngest ing our Brussels supremo. He then decid­ when 8,000 Muslim men and boys were candidate in Britain’s 1955 general elec­ ed to remain in Brussels, where his wife killed by Serbs, was an act of genocide. tion and an adviser to Tony Crosland, a worked as an academic, as a freelance Parliament sacked him on June 17th and Labour foreign secretary and influential correspondent for the Observer, among made it illegal to deny that the crime was other publications. Back then, The Econo- genocide. Outraged, the largest party back­ mist had a whole section devoted to the ing the government withdrew its support, eec. Though the appetite for detailed leaving it in jeopardy. Srebrenica is a lit­ reporting from Brussels gradually dimin­ mus test in Montenegro: if you say it was ished, the importance of understanding not genocide, you are considered “pro­ “Europe” did not: Dick’s authoritative Serb”. Many Montenegrins consider them­ “Guide to the European Union” is in its selves Serbs; even those who hold that tenth edition. there is a separate Montenegrin ethnicity Colleagues fondly recall a kind and admit close cultural and historical ties. modest man who was generous with sage Well before the uproar, the government advice. Quiet expertise on Europe may was shaky. In elections in August a clutch have gone out of fashion in Britain, but it of disparate opposition parties managed to is badly needed. It is also still valued by deprive the ruling party since the 1990s, some, including Sir Keir Starmer, the the dps, of its majority. The margin of vic­ current Labour leader—a friend of Dick’s tory was so slim that it took until Decem­ and, just possibly, the next in the long ber for a new government to be cobbled to­ line of British prime ministers he chron­ gether, composed of technocrats and com­ icled. The savvy psephologist in Dick mitted to maintaining the dps’s pro­West­ would have recognised that prospect as ern foreign policy. The new prime minister having long odds; the natural optimist in was Zdravko Krivokapic, a hitherto ob­ him would surely have cherished the scure professor proposed by the Serbian hope of defying them. Orthodox Church, to which most Monte­ negrins nominally belong. But Slaven Radunovic, the leader of the Alarm bells are ringing at nato head­ that change by the ballot box was impossi­ populist Democratic Front (df) in parlia­ quarters, however. Montenegro is a mem­ ble. The leader of the dps, Milo Djukanovic, ment, wants a more pro­Serbian policy. He ber of the alliance. Pro­Serbian and there­ is still president. His party is still the larg­ has withdrawn his party’s support of the fore pro­Russian officials have already est in parliament and his loyalists are still government, and would like Montenegro been put into important jobs, with access embedded in all the country’s institutions. to leave nato and to cancel its recognition to sensitive intelligence. Russia was be­ But the opposition’s victory has now of next­door Kosovo, which split away hind a failed coup in Montenegro in 2016 thrown all assumptions about the coun­ from Serbia in 2008. What happened at which seemed to draw support from df, al­ try’s future direction into doubt. Srebrenica, he says, was a terrible crime— though it denied involvement. The plotters Many Montenegrins wanted a change but not genocide. sought in vain to stop the country from of government because they believed that The df’s opponents call it a cat’s paw of joining nato. Savo Kentera, the head of the people in power were deeply corrupt and “Serbian World”, an ideology promoted by Atlantic Council of Montenegro, a pro­ in cahoots with organised crime. But Dri­ nationalist Serbs who want their brethren Western think­tank, says Russian officials tan Abazovic, the deputy prime minister, in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro to look are probably thrilled at the prospect of worries that civic­minded parties like his to Serbia for leadership. Nonsense, scoffs friendly sources within the alliance. may now be “crushed” between the two Mr Radunovic. Such ideas are spread Last year’s election broke a psycholog­ main political blocs: pro­Western crooks around “to scare people”. ical barrier. It had been widely believed and pro­Serbian ultra­nationalists. n

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Europe 49

Charlemagne Politics by other means

Why football can never escape politics at the European championship fa’s main creator was a Frenchman who had to win over holdouts and sceptics for his idea of regular international events. (Typical­ ly, British teams skipped the first few tournaments, only joining later.) There was a difference. Europe’s economies were melded together to stem competition between countries; uefa was found­ ed to promote it. An Italian official panicked that playing each oth­ er “risked exciting national passions” a decade after such passions had left millions dead. And national passions were indeed un­ leashed, thankfully in a much less deadly manner. Flags are waved and, occasionally, Albanian mothers are insulted, but in a panto­ mime of once fatal feelings. When it comes to European integra­ tion, football is the animalistic id to the eu’s rational superego. Yet the global pre­eminence of European football is a product of that integration. The eu’s free­movement rules meant coun­ tries could no longer limit foreign labour. Domestic second­raters could be replaced with better, cheaper foreign players. The Bos­ man ruling in 1995 from the European Court of Justice let players leave a club without a release fee at the end of a contract. Wages shot up as clubs battled to attract players. tv cash poured in as the quality of the game improved. International owners, attracted by a mixture of prestige and reputation­laundering rather than profit­ ability, bought up clubs. While Europe has slowly become a back­ ny hope of a relaxing football tournament between friendly water for business in general, it is dominant in football. The top Arivals disappeared in the 89th minute of a match between Aus­ leagues are all in Europe, which has led to international success, tria and North Macedonia. Marko Arnautovic, a combustible Aus­ too: European teams have won five of the past six world cups. For a trian striker of Serbian descent, slotted home the third goal in a 3­1 continent obsessed with its shrinking place in the world, football victory. He celebrated by screaming “I’m fucking your Albanian offers an arena where it is still supreme. mother” at an opponent, knowing that North Macedonia is home uefa tries to create a politics­free environment for its lucrative to a large ethnic­Albanian population. tournaments. But its choice of sponsors has already ruled that out. It was not the first such incident at Euro 2020, the delayed Many Europeans have probably not heard of Nord Stream 2, a con­ competition between 24 of Europe’s best national teams. Russia troversial pipeline running from Russia to Germany, which has set protested after Ukraine’s team wore kit with an outline of their Angela Merkel’s government against both her eastern neighbours country that included Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. In and America. Yet they may know Gazprom, the Russian state­ another game a Greenpeace protester sent debris spiralling onto owned gas company helping to build it. It sponsors both the people—nearly whacking the French manager—after misjudging Champions League, where elite European clubs compete, and Eu­ his parachute landing. Rows about gay rights in Hungary, one of ro 2020. Its azure logo gleams from every surface. In exchange for the hosts, rumble on. Before games some teams decided to take to its money, Gazprom receives a glut of corporate tickets, allowing their knees, to symbolise opposition against racism; others decid­ executives and business partners to scoff canapés and mingle ed against. Some fans booed; others cheered. At Euro 2020, poli­ with dead­eyed models paid to attend. More importantly, spon­ tics is everywhere. sorship associates Gazprom primarily with football rather than Football, after all, is a potential ally of every ideology, a perfect being a limb of a gangster state. Even uefa is keen on politics in canvas on which to project a worldview. Socialists can hail an in­ football, for a price. dustry in which nearly all the money goes to the workers. Statists can applaud how government­funded football camps on the edge Life or death? It’s much more important than that of Paris churn out a stream of world­class footballers (albeit ones On a continent where the facets of nationhood are disappearing, incapable of beating Switzerland). Capitalists point out that the be they banal (customs arrangements), the everyday (currency) or sport’s explosion came thanks to free markets, allowing football­ the emotive (borders), football is a way of clinging on. Belgian na­ ers to play wherever they liked and clubs to pay whatever they tional identity extends to a king, a large pile of debt and its surpris­ pleased. Autocrats are reminded that ends trump means, as foot­ ingly good football team. A hipster analysis of Croatia’s path to in­ ball fans accept glory no matter how dodgy the money that bought dependence starts with Dinamo Zagreb’s Zvonimir Boban aiming it. Conservatives, meanwhile, can hold onto the sport as the last a flying kick at a Yugoslav policeman during an on­pitch riot in stand of the nation­state. Where there is attention there is poli­ 1990 and ends with Davor Suker dinking Denmark’s goalie in Euro tics, and football is simply too big to ignore. 96, its first tournament as an independent country. When Czecho­ In Europe the sport has always been political with a small “p”. slovakia won the championship in 1976, the team was dominated Football offers a more glamorous story of European integration by Slovak players, kick­starting a successful push for indepen­ than the lawyers and officials grinding the continent together in dence, argues David Goldblatt, a historian of the sport. At its best, Brussels and Luxembourg. uefa, the sport’s administrator on the international football is a bastion of a benign, diluted national­ continent, started life in 1954 as European politicians were scout­ ism; a place where politics can be a carnival, rather than a rally. At ing for means to make war impossible. Like its duller sibling, the its worst, it is an arena where carefully buried political disagree­ European Coal and Steel Community, which preceded the eu, ue- ments are dug up—particularly if Mr Arnautovic is playing. n

012 50 Britain The Economist July 3rd 2021

→ Also in this section 51 Co-operative covid conspiracists 52 Bagehot: Sajid Javid’s latest gig — Read more at: Economist.com/Britain

EU migrants an employer is unable or unwilling to ac­ cess it, rights will be lost. The five million But the inevitable snarl­ups and injus­ tices should not distract completely from what Britain has done. The Home Office, a department known for sloppiness and ob­ duracy, has processed the great majority of applications swiftly and generously. As of Britain is much more European than anybody thought. At some point May 31st only 2% had been rejected. About politicians will notice that half of the successful applicants have been hortly after the Brexit vote in June applications that some fear disaster. Many given settled status; the rest, mostly newer S2016, a group of distraught Europeans European settlers in Britain seem not to arrivals, are “pre­settled” and will be able gathered in a Bristol pub. They decided on have realised that they must apply on be­ to upgrade in time. “It has worked, and the spot to create an organisation to lobby half of their children: only 15% of applica­ thank goodness it has worked,” says Alber­ for eu citizens in Britain. Wanting to con­ tions are for under­18s, which seems low. to Costa, a Conservative mp whose Italian vey that group’s weight, they took the then­ And whereas some eu countries have giv­ parents went through the process. official estimate of its size, and called their en identity cards to British citizens, Britain Some of the Europeans who have alrea­ outfit the3million. Now, says Maike Bohn, has recorded people’s status nowhere ex­ dy been granted settled status left during one of the founders, “we need to rebrand.” cept on a central database. If a landlord or the coronavirus pandemic and may not re­ June 30th was the deadline for citizens turn. Britain nonetheless finds itself with of European countries, who used to be able many more European settlers than the to move freely to and from Britain, to apply Say goodbye, wave hello 3.5m­4.1m the government expected. To for settled status. At the last count 5.6m ap­ Britain, quarterly citizenship applications put the 5m into context, the censuses in plications had been received, from about By applicant origin, ’000 2011 of England, Northern Ireland, Scot­ 5m people (some applied more than once, 25 land and Wales found 1.5m people of Indi­ for various reasons). Some nationalities an descent, 1.2m people of Pakistani de­ Brexit referendum proved far larger than official statisticians 20 scent and 1.9m black people, not including had thought. Romanians, the second­big­ those of mixed race. 5 gest European group in Britain after Poles, For now, Britain’s European settlers are EU14* filed 918,000 applications by the end of 0 mostly youthful. Overall, 19% of British March—about twice as many as their esti­ people are aged 65 or older. By the end of mated population in 2019. Italians, who EU8† 5 March only 2% of applications for settled made 501,000 applications, were also status came from Europeans in that age EU‡ 0 twice as numerous as expected. Charities group. But over time the European immi­ that work with eucitizens say they are sure 21191715132011 grants and their descendants will come to there was a surge of applications in June. Joined the EU: *before 2004 †in 2004 ‡in 2007 resemble everyone else. “They will grow Source: Government statistics So huge is the task of processing these old here,” says Catherine Barnard of uk in a

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Britain 51

Changing Europe, a think­tank. ing rights. The British government quietly In America covid­19 conspiracists were They live everywhere—at least, some announced on June 17th this year that it backed by Donald Trump as president. In do. Immigrants from the eastern European would do similarly. Unionists might sus­ Britain they are countercultural. A poll on and Baltic countries that joined the eu in pect that the snp is trying to attract new June 14th by YouGov found that 71% of Eng­ 2004 settled across the United Kingdom. voters to the independence cause and draw lish adults supported extending lockdown, Small towns that had barely seen an immi­ a cultural dividing line between interna­ with just 24% opposed. Vaccines, too, are grant before sprouted Lithuanian and Pol­ tionalist Scots and xenophobic little En­ hugely popular. Some 85% of adults have ish stores. By contrast, western and south­ glanders. They would do better to copy the had a first shot, and 63% a second. ern Europeans are concentrated in cities, nationalists by appealing to the five mil­ The delay of “Freedom Day”, which was as are the Bulgarians and Romanians who lion. Everybody wants to be wanted. n supposed to see lockdown restrictions lift­ mostly arrived after 2013. Just 19% of the ed almost entirely on June 21st, has proba­ Poles who applied for settled status by the bly been a boon for protesters. One says he end of March live in London, compared was surprised by the number of vaccinated with 34% of Romanians, 46% of Italians people joining in, either because they and 54% of French applicants. wanted to get back to normal or because Most European adults who were living they have become concerned about possi­ in Britain before the end of 2020 can vote ble side­effects since being jabbed. in local elections, and in elections to the The protests attract both anarchist left Northern Irish, Scottish and Welsh parlia­ and anti­establishment right. Piers Cor­ ments. That gives them some clout. They byn, the brother of Jeremy Corbyn, La­ will gain more if they become citizens. “If bour’s former, far­left leader, has shared even a third become British, it’s really a po­ platforms with David Kurten, once a mem­ litical force,” says Alexandra Bulat, who ber of the United Kingdom Independence came to Britain from Romania and is now a Party, a populist outfit that campaigned for Cambridgeshire county councillor. Brexit, and now leader of the right­wing Whether that happens, and how quick­ Heritage Party. Activists have united ly, is the crucial question for the future of around “freedom”, discussing John Locke British politics. Until a few years ago Euro­ and Ayn Rand. Many incorrectly cite Mag­ pean settlers seldom became citizens. na Carta, a royal charter from 1215, as proof They had lots of rights in Britain, and came that government lockdowns are illegal. from rich, stable countries that they did Some write an oath of allegiance to a baron not fear to return to. But the Brexit vote Anti-lockdown protests in Scotland, which they claim absolves caused a surge in citizenship applications them from having to follow laws. (see chart). eu citizens accounted for 34% Opposites attract Many want their movement to grow in­ of applicants in the first quarter of this to a libertarian opposition to the “Great Re­ year, a big increase from just 4% in the first set”. This is the name given by the World quarter of 2010. Economic Forum, the organisation that Applying for British citizenship is ex­ runs an annual talkfest for the world’s pensive, at £1,330 ($1,840) per adult. Some great and good at Davos in Switzerland, to Even as lockdowns ease, protests are people have been deterred from applying the technocratic measures it champions to going strong by an obscure requirement about health tackle emerging global problems. Its pro­ insurance. And a few European countries, am for freedom pumps out Oasis and posals include digital identification passes such as Germany and Lithuania, frown on JBob Marley covers, but the band has a po­ and policies to curb climate change. Some dual citizenship. Nonetheless, many mi­ litical mission too: to oppose covid­19 lock­ plan to campaign for a school voucher sys­ grants will eventually get round to it, espe­ downs. Young, racially diverse crowds tem, so parents can save their children cially if their children grow up in Britain. gather to sing along to “We are the 99%”, its from government indoctrination. A mem­ And the more alarming stories they hear anthem. “Stick your poisonous vaccine up ber of Jam for Freedom says the band aims about the bureaucratic mistreatment of your arse,” go the lyrics. The “99%” refrain to become “the alternative to the satanist Europeans from July 1st, the more they will is borrowed from Occupy, a left­wing paedophiles who run Hollywood”. feel compelled to protect their rights by be­ movement. But between songs some fans Protest movements survive when cam­ coming British. shout “Free Tommy”, a reference to Tommy paigners form tight friendships. Those op­ Strangely, most national politicians are Robinson, the former leader of the English posing lockdowns needed to band togeth­ ignoring this enormous pool of potential Defence League, a right­wing group. er, says one activist, because they were “at­ voters. Hundreds of Labour Party activists Throughout the pandemic opponents tacked by their friends and family, just for have written to their leader, Sir Keir Starm­ of lockdowns have held hundreds of prot­ thinking critically”. Another says he has er, calling the party’s near­silence over eu ests, many motivated by a conspiracy theo­ become close to people on both far left and citizens’ rights “inexcusable”—to little ef­ ry also popular in America: that covid­19 far right, as well as to feminists who “write fect. Although Mr Costa lobbies tirelessly, was faked to provide an excuse for system­ about the patriarchy, something that I have the Conservative Party engages even less atic regime change. Groupings include no interest in”. Even as lockdowns ease, he with eu citizens’ groups than it did a few Stand Up x (which accuses Bill Gates, a bil­ insists, the political barriers won’t go back years ago. “There’s no effort,” says Ms Bohn lionaire philanthropist, of putting micro­ up, because of a “growing understanding of the3million. chips in vaccines) and Teachers Against that there is a bigger thing happening” that The big exception is the Scottish Na­ Abuse (set up to “protect children from the needs to be opposed. “Ideological differ­ tional Party. Its leaders speak frequently dangers and abuses of the covid regime”.) ences become relatively minor in the pres­ and effusively about eu citizens in Scot­ On June 26th several thousand protesters ence of a vast cover­up,” says Noam Yucht­ land. In early 2020 the Scottish Parliament, marched in London, and a crowd chanted man of the London School of Economics. which was and is dominated by the snp, abuse outside the home of Chris Whitty, “It makes you feel like you are part of a su­ proclaimed that it had protected their vot­ England’s chief medical officer. per­important club.” n

012 52 Britain The Economist July 3rd 2021

Bagehot The comeback kid

The toughest problem facing Sajid Javid as health secretary is a looming social-care crisis he would when the scandal broke, he would have faced cries of hy­ pocrisy (the handsy, smooching Mr Hancock was particularly preachy about social distancing) and conflicts of interest (Mr Han­ cock was Ms Coladangelo’s patron, and the two were university friends). With Mr Javid available on the backbenches, the prime minister went some way towards remedying his cabinet’s tenden­ cy towards the lightweight. Mr Javid is not only experienced, but more likely to speak his mind than whippersnappers on the make like the culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, or clinging­on­by­their­ fingertips types like the education secretary, Gavin Williamson. Mr Johnson also avoided a premature cabinet reshuffle, leaving him well­placed for one next year that could see his party riding into the next election with a useful combination of old hands like Mr Javid and newcomers unsullied by political combat. But the range and scale of problems that face the new health secretary would strike fear into anyone, no matter how experi­ enced, likeable or confident. They include the virulent new Delta variety of covid­19, which may force him to revise his plans for re­ opening; a backlog of over 5m operations and growing ranks of un­ treated cancer patients; the prospect of a flu epidemic in a popula­ tion that may have lost some of its herd immunity during lock­ down; and a health­care workforce that is increasingly exhausted ajid javid has got off to a bracing start at the Department of and fractious. He must find a replacement for Sir Simon Stevens, SHealth. During his first speech in Parliament in his new job, on the long­serving chief executive of the National Health Service, June 28th, he all but guaranteed that lockdown would end on July who has said he plans to step down. (Mr Javid can score a quick 19th, and strongly hinted that the policy of sending entire classes win by passing over Dido Harding, his predecessor’s favoured can­ of children home if one tests positive for covid­19 would end soon, didate, and choosing an insider such as Amanda Pritchard, Mr Ste­ too. The next morning he condemned a bunch of yobs for accost­ vens’s chief operating officer). He will also have to decide whether ing the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, as he walked across St to press ahead with Mr Hancock’s proposals to gather more daily James’s Park. “We will not tolerate this sort of behaviour towards decision­making in the hands of the health secretary, which risks our public servants,” Mr Javid tweeted at 7.27am. centralising not just power, but also responsibility. Mr Javid brings useful qualities to the position of health secre­ Successful health secretaries such as Mr Hunt, Mr Javid’s pre­ tary. High on the list is not being Matt Hancock, his hot­for­it pre­ decessor­but­one, and Kenneth Clarke, who served with distinc­ decessor, who resigned on June 26th after the Sun newspaper tion in the 1980s, have worked out how to plan simultaneously on printed photos of him canoodling with an aide, Gina Coladangelo. two levels: operational and strategic. They not only master the The tiggerish Mr Hancock had increasingly grated as lockdown day­to­day business of running Europe’s largest employer, but al­ has dragged on; Mr Javid is reassuringly placid. Mr Hancock is a so tackle long­term problems. For Mr Javid, these will include re­ polished speaker who loves to preen for the cameras; Mr Javid’s cruitment (the nhs is already chronically understaffed and faces mechanical, unpolished delivery makes him seem less ambitious growing shortages of doctors and nurses) and extreme variation than he really is. Even before Mr Hancock was snapped in his fate­ between the health service’s best­ and worst­performing bits. The ful embrace, he was unpopular in his party (the silence on the Tory thorniest problem in his in­tray is a long­overdue overhaul of Brit­ benches as Jeremy Hunt intoned that “the country is in [Mr Han­ ain’s social­care system, which previous governments dodged be­ cock’s] debt” spoke volumes). The man universally known as Saj is cause of its fearsome cost and complexity. It can no longer be de­ widely liked as a straight­shooter and convivial colleague. layed without pushing care homes into bankruptcy, filling hospi­ He is now the cabinet member with the widest experience, hav­ tal beds with old people who have nowhere else to go—and caus­ ing held five positions in it in the past seven years (culture, busi­ ing the government he is part of to renege on a pledge to fix social ness, housing, the Home Office and the Treasury). He served under care “once and for all”. both Boris Johnson, the current prime minister, and his two Tory predecessors, Theresa May and David Cameron. He has the confi­ Stepping out dence to stand up to senior civil servants and politicians, but is It was Mr Johnson’s former right­hand­man, Dominic Cummings, neither prickly nor abrasive. He is close to his party’s power­bro­ who expelled Mr Javid from his previous job as chancellor. He kers, in particular Rishi Sunak, who was his former protégé as greeted the news of Mr Javid’s promotion by dismissing him as chief secretary to the Treasury, and Mr Hunt, with whom he “bog­standard”. This says more about Mr Cummings than Mr Ja­ worked when he was community secretary with some responsi­ vid, but even the new health secretary’s fans worry that he is better bility for care homes and Mr Hunt was health secretary. Mr Sunak at firefighting than at structural reform. In his 11 years in Parlia­ now controls the purse strings that Mr Javid will need to loosen if ment and five in the government, he has been everywhere but left he is to succeed in his new job; Mr Hunt is chairman of the parlia­ footprints nowhere: each of the departments he ran looked much mentary committee that oversees his work. the same when he left as when he arrived. Social care certainly of­ By playing the Saj card, Mr Johnson transformed a potential di­ fers a chance to leave footprints—but given the complexity of the saster into an advantage. Had he retained Mr Hancock, as he said task, also to fall flat on his face. n

012 International The Economist July 3rd 2021 53

Home entertainment com, a communications regulator. Being connected became essential. At the start of The attention recession the pandemic one in ten British homes lacked internet access, but since then about half of those have gone online. Seek­ ing new distractions, smartphone users around the world installed 143bn new apps, a quarter more than in 2019 (and People have spent a year glued to screens, but now the media boom more than double the previous year’s rate is turning to bust of growth), according to Craig Chapple of he number of people who are in a As the amount of spare time at home Sensor Tower, which monitors app stores. “Tnew size is pretty staggering,” Chip starts to shrink, the attention boom of The biggest share of the extra screen­ Bergh, the head of Levi Strauss, admitted in 2020 is giving way to what Mark Mulligan time went to television: video­viewing June. After more than a year of on­and­off of midia Research, a firm of analysts, dubs rose by about 80 minutes a week in rich lockdowns, the denim­maker told the As­ an “attention recession”. The squeeze on countries, finds midia. Video­gaming saw sociated Press that a quarter of customers free time means that media companies are the biggest proportional jump, as people no longer fit in their jeans. now all asking the same question, says devoted an extra hour per week, or 30% The long spell on the sofa may have Brendan Brady of Antenna, a company that more time, to games. Listening to music been bad for the world’s waistlines, but it measures video­streaming subscriptions: edged up by 5%, while podcasts and audio­ has been a golden era for the industries “Is this now a period of stability? Or are we books rose by nearly a quarter. that provide in­home distractions. As en­ going to fall off a cliff?” Books of the printed variety also got a tertainment options outside the home boost. In Britain, four out of ten people re­ were shut down, and commuting gave way Twiddling their thumbs ported that they were reading more than to home­working, people had time on their The average full­time worker gained about they used to, according to Nielsen, a data hands. Consumption of everything from 15% more spare time during the pandemic, firm. The jump was most pronounced books and podcasts to music and video according to a survey by midiaof consum­ among young people, particularly women, games shot up (see chart on next page). ers in America, Australia, Britain and Can­ who spent 50% more time reading than Now, as vaccines begin to do their job, ada. Not only did they have more time, but they did before the pandemic. Some of this governments in many rich countries are those who kept their jobs had more money, was escapism, but much of the reading had starting to lift stay­at­home orders, and too. Americans’ spending on recreation a practical motive: cooking and gardening people are venturing back out. Offices are such as sports, theme parks and holidays, books were the top choices in non­fiction, reopening, restaurants are taking orders fell by 30% in 2020. while in children’s books, home­learning and live audiences are back, everywhere Instead, people turned to their screens. saw the biggest increase. from Cannes to Wimbledon. Our “normal­ In Britain, the time people spent online As spare time dries up, the question is cy index” shows that life in many of the 50 last year (including television streaming which of these newly acquired habits will countries included is creeping back to services) rose by more than half an hour a stick and which will be dropped. In the ul­ business as usual (see Graphic detail). day, to nearly five hours, according to Of­ tra­competitive video­streaming market,

012 54 International The Economist July 3rd 2021

there are early signs that audiences may be category. And unlike other lockdown hob­ cutting back. The average number of Couch potatoes bies, it is showing no sign of falling away as streaming services used by viewers in Average weekly entertainment time per adult* life gets back to normal. It has become “a America is falling for the first time, accord­ % increase Q2 2020-Q4 2020 sticky habit”, says Craig Chapple of Sensor ing to Omdia, a research firm. In April the Tower. He finds that last year people in­ typical viewer used 7.06 services (includ­ 100 20 30 stalled 56.2bn gaming apps, a third more ing free ones), down from 7.23 in Novem­ Video games 4.4 than in 2019 (and three times the rate of in­ ber. Worldwide, 5m people signed up to Audio† .5 crease the previous year). The easing of Netflix, the market leader, in the first quar­ News 3.8 lockdowns is not denting the habit: the ter of the year, down from 15m in the same Social media 5.4 first quarter of 2021 saw more installations period in 2020. Disney+, a leading rival, al­ than any quarter of 2020. Roblox, a sprawl­ Relaxation 6.1 so undershot analysts’ sign­up forecasts. ing platform on which people make and Yet the main losers in the attention re­ Video 20.1 share their own basic games, reported that cession, when it comes to viewing, will be Music Hours, Q4 2020 5.8 in the first quarter of this year players old­school formats. Cable­viewing in *Aged 1 and over in Australia, Britain, Canada, United States spent nearly 10bn hours on the platform, America, long in decline, rose slightly dur­ †Radio, podcasts and audiobooks nearly twice as much time as they spent in Source: MIDiA Research ing the depths of 2020’s lockdown. But re­ the same period in 2020. opening has set it sliding faster than ever: Gaming’s popularity rests most heavily by 23% year on year in the second quarter The rebalancing from music to pod­ on Generation Z—roughly, under­25s— of 2021, according to MoffettNathanson, a casts suits streaming companies. Whereas who account for most of Roblox’s users. A firm of analysts. Viewership of American they license most of their music from re­ poll in February by Deloitte, a consultancy, broadcast television dropped by the same cord companies, which own the rights to found that whereas all other generations of amount. And although most cinemas have songs, they are increasingly commission­ Americans named television and films as reopened, the year­long disruption was ing podcasts of their own. This gives them their favourite form of home entertain­ enough to persuade film studios to change both a way to differentiate themselves ment, Generation Z ranked them last, after the way they do business. Some now re­ from their competitors—“Call Her Daddy” video games, music, web browsing and so­ lease their new blockbusters on their and “The Joe Rogan Experience” are exclu­ cial media. In time, “the dominant posi­ streaming services on the same date that sive to Spotify, for instance—and to in­ tion that video entertainment has held they make their cinema debut. The long crease their profit margins. Mr Mulligan could be challenged,” Deloitte argues. “theatrical window”—the three months notes that Amazon has an opportunity to The changing shape of post­lockdown when a new film could only be seen on big differentiate its own audio offering by life can also be seen through social media. screens—has been permanently cut short combining Amazon Music, its music­ and People spent an extra 40 minutes a week (see Business section). podcast­streaming service, with Audible, on social networks last year, as well as an As well as hastening the switch from its audiobook company. extra half­hour consuming news, some­ old to new formats, covid­19 has shown times via social­media platforms. In April how different sorts of media increasingly No obstacles for Roblox this year Facebook said that the increased compete with each other for consumers’ The single biggest new media habit to be levels of engagement it had seen in 2020 attention. Until a decade ago, people ac­ formed during the pandemic appears to be were subsiding as lockdowns eased. cessed different media using different gaming. The extra hour per week that peo­ Snapchat, on the other hand, reported hardware: tv sets for video, computers for ple spent gaming last year represented the the opposite. Evan Spiegel, chief executive gaming, stereos for music. Today all variet­ largest percentage increase of any media of Snap, the app’s developer, told investors ies are delivered by smartphone. that as lockdowns lifted in America in late People don’t have a specific slot in their February, the amount of content posted on schedule for video, says Emmett Shear, it increased. Since the end of March, he chief executive of Twitch, a live­streaming said, there had been a rise in the rate of company. Instead, “People think about, new friendships, as people began to social­ ‘Where am I going to get entertainment?’… ise more in real life. “There doesn’t seem to and they go to the service that is providing be much concern that social­media usage the most of that.” As lockdowns lift, he will meaningfully erode as economies adds, Twitch’s main competitors will prob­ open up,” notes Michael Nathanson of ably be basketball, frisbee and the park. MoffettNathanson in an analyst’s note. The competition between different “With people able to meet more in person, types of media is clearest in audio. During it may indeed increase.” the downtime of 2020 people listened to Perhaps the most obvious winner more of everything, from music to pod­ among social networks will be dating apps. casts and audiobooks. But music’s share of Match Group, which owns several such overall listening time went down. At the outfits including Tinder, reported that new start of the pandemic, podcasts and audio­ sign­ups fell last year in April, as covid­19 books accounted for a fifth of all listening. arrived, and again in December, amid the By the end of last year their share had risen virus’s second wave. But now people seem to a quarter, says midia. As listening time to be making up for lost time. So far this returns to pre­pandemic levels, some evi­ year sign­ups are running about 10% high­ dence suggests that people are sticking er than they were before the pandemic. In with these new choices, and cutting back February nearly 20% more messages were on music to make way for them. Spotify sent than a year earlier. As people’s atten­ said in April that podcasts had nibbled tion turns from the screen back to real life, away at music to reach an all­time high in Match has told investors to look forward to their share of customers’ total listening. a “summer of love”. n

012 Business The Economist July 3rd 2021 55

The future of offices (1) chief executives, and between them and their staff. The strategies that emerge out A hybrid new world of these debates will shape not just what happens in the next few months but also the longer­term future of office work. One change is already obvious. The uni­ versal anti­remote­work mindset of yes­ teryear is gone, replaced by a range of atti­ tudes that vary by industry and region. At Post-pandemic work is here. And it is messy one extreme, some companies now expect ight years ago Google’s then finance experiment in home­working. City work­ all workers to be back at their desks. At the Echief, Patrick Pichette, recalled being ers swapped suits for jogging trousers and other, certain firms are doing away with of­ asked how many of the tech giant’s em­ city­centre flats for the suburbs. In a cor­ fices altogether (see next article). Most ployees telecommuted. His answer was porate change of heart that typified the era, businesses fall somewhere in the middle. simple: “As few as possible.” Despite the Google gave each employee globally $1,000 The most ardent supporters of the sta­ fact that Google was busy churning out for home­office furniture, offered them tus quo ante can be found on Wall Street. apps that enabled remote work, his com­ virtual fitness videos and cooking lessons, David Solomon, boss of Goldman Sachs, ment was also unremarkable. From Silicon and urged everyone to “take good care of has called remote work an “aberration”. His Valley and Wall Street to the Square Mile in yourselves and one another”. opposite number at Morgan Stanley, James London, La Défense in Paris, Potsdamer As vaccination rates rise in the rich Gorman, recently quipped, “If you can go Platz in Berlin and Hong Kong’s Central, world the home­working experiment is be­ into a restaurant in New York City, you can the world’s business districts welcomed ing unwound (see chart 1 on next page). But come into the office.” Jamie Dimon, chief millions of office grunts every workday. the speed of the unwinding, and its scope, executive of JPMorgan Chase, has conced­ Congregating in one place was believed to has become a matter of hot debate among ed that “people don’t like commuting, but spur productivity, innovation, camarade­ so what?” The three bank bosses worry that rie. It enabled bosses to keep a beady eye on remote workers are less engaged with the their underlings. Work from home was → Also in this section company, and potentially less productive. something to be done only if it absolutely Whether or not they agree with the Wall 57 Empty tech HQs couldn’t be avoided. Street titans deep down, their counterparts In March 2020 it suddenly could not. 58 Bartleby: The perils of PR in Europe see such intransigence as an op­ The covid­19 pandemic forced govern­ portunity to lure disaffected bankers who 59 The film business ments around the world to impose strict prefer greater flexibility. ubs, a Swiss lend­ lockdowns. Overnight, most of the world’s 59 Facebook 1­0 FTC er, is reportedly about to allow two­thirds offices became off limits. To survive, com­ of its employees to pursue “hybrid” work, 60 Schumpeter: The cost of the cloud panies everywhere embarked on a gigantic which combines some days at home and

012 56 Business The Economist July 3rd 2021

some at the office—in part as a recruitment home. Indonesia has set up a “work from 2 tool. NatWest, a British bank, expects just Domestic bliss Bali” scheme for civil servants to help re­ one in eight workers back at the office full­ United States, “after covid-1, how often would vive the tropical island’s tourism industry. time, with the rest on hybrid schedules or you like to have paid workdays at home?” All this suggests that hybrid arrange­ primarily home­working. People at Ger­ Workers surveyed*, Mar 2020-May 2021, % replying ments will persist in most places (with the many’s Deutsche Bank will work remotely Days per week possible exception of Wall Street). They up to 60% of the time. Noel Quinn, chief Five Four Three Two One present their own challenges, however. executive of hsbc, has described drifting They blur the lines between work and fam­ back to pre­pandemic patterns as a 200 40 60 80 100 ily life. Virtual meetings can be even more “missed opportunity” and would like the Rarely or tedious than in­person ones; people who Asia­centric bank’s staff to embrace hybrid never have admitted to Zoom fatigue include Eric arrangements. Yuan, the video­conferencing app’s bil­ Many technology ceos seem to share *Excluding those unable lionaire founder. And hybrid schedules Source: WFH Research to work from home Mr Quinn’s sentiment. They fret that strict make managing office space tricky, espe­ return­to­office mandates will put off rest­ cially at a time when many companies, in­ less software engineers. Dylan Field, co­ work from the office. cluding hsbc, are planning to reduce their founder of Figma, which helps firms create Young workers, often seen as casualties office footprint. and test apps and websites, worries that of remote working, have warmed to flexi­ Given a choice, most Australian work­ employees will jump ship if the rules are ble schedules. Members of Gen­z, now ers would prefer to work from home on too restrictive. Tech workers may indeed aged 16­21, were more likely than any other Mondays and Fridays, according to ey, a be getting more footloose, with quit rates age group to cite personal choice rather consultancy. Even if managers’ suspicions seemingly higher and poaching more ram­ than employers’ policies as the main rea­ that this is a thinly veiled effort to extend pant than usual. Perhaps in recognition of son for continuing to work remotely, ac­ the weekend prove unfounded, that means this, in June Facebook said that all of the cording to a study by Morgan Stanley. At that offices would be far busier on Wednes­ social­media giant’s full­time employees the same time, many workers of all ages are days, the least popular choice for home­ could apply for permanent remote work. still keen to come to the office every now working, than at the start and end of the Companies such as Spotify, a music­ and again—not least to enjoy reliable air­ work week. streamer, Square, a fintech firm, and Twit­ conditioning during what is shaping up to Some firms still intend to let people ter have told many of their staff they can be a scorching northern summer. Sales­ come in whenever they want. Others are work remotely for ever if they please. force, a business­software giant itself im­ getting inventive. Mr Field of Figma gives plementing a work­from­anywhere model, his staff a choice: work remotely full­time Corporate chimeras found that although nearly half its employ­ or, if you come in at least twice a week, get a Across regions and industries evidence ees are opting to stay home most of the desk in an office. Snowflake, a data­man­ suggests that people like the ability to work time, four in five want to maintain a phys­ agement firm, will let individual units de­ from home at least occasionally. A poll of ical connection with the corporate office. cide how to organise themselves. Many 2,000 American adults by Prudential, an The public sector, often the largest em­ companies, including giants such as Ap­ insurer, found that 87% of those who ployer in a country, faces similar consider­ ple, have got around the problem by man­ worked from home during the pandemic ations. Britain’s tax authority is offering all dating days when employees are required wanted to be able to continue doing so employees the right to work from home to be present. after restrictions ease. According to the two days a week. In America the federal same survey, 42% of remote workers said government predicts that many civil ser­ Normality bites they would search for a new job if they vants will want to maintain flexible sched­ The sudden reconfiguring of work life is were asked to return to the office full­time. ules after the pandemic. Ireland, which leading to friction. Workers who want Only one in five American employees say wants 20% of its 300,000 public servants more flexibility are finding themselves at they would seldom or never want to work working remotely by the end of the year, is odds with employers calling for a return to from home (see chart 2). In a recent poll of offering financial support to encourage something closer to pre­pandemic nor­ more than10,000 European office workers, them to relocate outside cities. It will mal. Some of Apple’s employees have criti­ 79% said that they would back legislation create more than 400 remote­working cised the tech giant’s requirement to work prohibiting bosses from forcing people to hubs, allowing staff to work closer to in­person three days a week as tonally “dis­ missive and invalidating”. The afl­cio, America’s biggest trade­union federation, Summer in the city 1 is facing health­and­safety complaints United States from its own staff over its measures to bring workers back to the office in the ab­ Paid full days worked from home* “When will most employees return to the oce?” sence of improved ventilation and amid % % replying† fears of continued risk of infection while 60 40 commuting on public transport. Such disagreements are spilling over 30 40 into boardrooms. Some shareholders, in­ 20 cluding big institutional investors, are keen to promote flexible working not only Employers’ plans 20 post-covid 10 to retain talent but also to burnish compa­ nies’ environmental, social and gover­ Pre-covid-19 pandemic 0 0 nance (esg) credentials. s&p Global, an an­ MAMFJDNOSAJJM Q1Q4QQ2Q1 Q2-4 Never (Now) alytics firm, says that under its assess­ 2020 2021 2021 2022 ments, the ability to work from home is Sources: N. Bloom, Stanford University; *Based on employee surveys one measure of employees’ health and WFH Research; Reset Work †Survey of human-resource executives Mar-Apr 2021 wellbeing, which can influence up to 5% of

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Business 57

a firm’s esg score. This is roughly the same 21% their white counterparts. “edifice complex”. From the Chrysler weighting attached to risk and crisis man­ That is a lot for companies to ponder, Building and Sears Tower to the Bank of agement for banks, or human­rights mea­ even as they deal with short­term contro­ China’s iconic Hong Kong headquarters, sures for miners. It may affect things like versies, such as whether or not to bar un­ companies have always erected monu­ gender and racial diversity. Studies find vaccinated workers from the office. Dis­ ments to their success. Technology firms that mothers are likelier than fathers to fa­ ruptive though it was, last year’s abrupt have reasons beyond self­aggrandisement vour work from home. Research by Slack, a transition to remote work may, ironically, to covet posh quarters. Fancy workplaces messaging app, found that only 3% of black prove considerably smoother than the help such businesses, which live and die knowledge­workers want to return to the shift to whatever counts as normal in the by the quality of their human capital, to at­ office full­time in America, compared with post­pandemic era. n tract employees, in effect becoming a key part of the pay package. They enable team­ work, which most founders believe, rightly or wrongly, to be indispensable for innova­ tion. And since many fast­growing start­ ups lack a long history, offices where everyone congregates can help imbue the troops with the corporate mission. It may be no coincidence that Airbnb’s feel like a high­end Airbnb. Even so, tech temples had begun to seem anachronistic long before covid­19 washed up on California’s shores. Traffic was making the daily commute an insuf­ ferable two­hour ordeal. Most computer programmers came to the office but really worked elsewhere—in the cloud, manag­ ing projects with Trello, on Zoom and Slack. Designed to be lively, tech offices were often eerily quiet. Realising this, companies began to open more of them be­ yond the Valley, and to make more use of the virtual realm. The pandemic then gave the shifting equilibrium a shove, notes The future of offices (2) Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University. Al­ though it is hard to predict where exactly Edifice complexities all the bits will land, the contours of tech hqs of the future are coming into view. For starters, most will be smaller. As in many other sectors, tech firms will blend remote and office work. When Andreessen Horowitz, a leading venture­capital firm, SAN FRANCISCO recently asked its 226 portfolio companies What will happen to technology companies’ pricey digs? to describe work in the future, two­thirds his is one of the healthiest buildings new work spaces and practices in other in­ said “hybrid”. Uber is reportedly trying to “Tin San Francisco.” Giving a tour of the dustries, says Charlton Hutton of M Moser lease out a third of its new headquarters to new headquarters of Uber on a recent after­ Associates, a design agency. other tenants. noon, Michael Huaco, the ride­hailing When it comes to offices, Silicon Valley Offices will also look different. Firms giant’s head of “workplace and real estate”, has been an odd, some would say ridicu­ are throwing out desks and creating spaces does not hide his pride. And he has plenty lous, place. For an industry whose avowed for employees to socialise and collaborate. to be proud of. Employees make their way goal is to digitise all of life by having soft­ Okta, a digital­identity manager, is becom­ to work stations up a wood­panelled stair­ ware “eat the world”, most big firms’ work ing a “dynamic working” space. In its re­ case, then through a sun­soaked atrium practices looked remarkably analogue. Be­ modelled headquarters most rooms will be which doubles as the conduit for the build­ fore the pandemic, daily presence in the easy to reconfigure, and let people gather ing’s natural ventilation. Meeting rooms office was expected. Many spent hundreds more easily. M Moser Associates expects and nooks with couches abound; desks are of millions of dollars on headquarters to the pre­pandemic ratio, of half of office scarce. This being tech central, there is, accommodate a large part of their work­ space reserved for individual work and less naturally, a juice bar and a yoga studio. force. Uber’s new San Francisco digs re­ than a third for meetings, roughly to flip. There is only one niggle. Many Uber portedly cost $130m to build; the company The daily battle for meeting rooms, legend­ employees may prefer to keep working has told investors it will spend $1bn over ary in tech, will be less fierce. from home and come in only a couple of 20 years on leases in the city. Salesforce, a As physical space shrinks the virtual days a week, if at all. “No one really knows,” business­software giant, is paying the de­ sort will expand. The pandemic has alrea­ concedes Mr Huaco. His firm is not alone. veloper of Salesforce Tower nearly $560m dy set off a battle among Google, Microsoft Up and down Silicon Valley technology over 15 years to lease 30 of its 61 floors. and Salesforce over which will be the dom­ companies are wondering what will hap­ Apple’s spaceship­like base in Cupertino inant platform for online work. Some less pen when they fully reopen after the sum­ (pictured), which can accommodate up to well­known services have seen user num­ mer break. Where they go, others often fol­ 13,000 people, cost the iPhone­maker bers go through the roof, among them low. How tech solves its hq conundrum $5bn, or $385,000 per employee. Figma, a tool for prototyping apps and may therefore once again blaze the trail for Tech is not the first to suffer from the websites, Miro, a virtual whiteboard, and

012 58 Business The Economist July 3rd 2021

Envoy, which helps firms conduct health says Marco Zappacosta, boss of Thumb­ “95% of our customers are outside of Sili­ screenings, order food or book a desk. tack, a marketplace matching customers con Valley.” In May Coinbase, a crypto­ To avoid remote workers feeling like with local plumbers, dog walkers or other currency exchange, said it no longer had a second­class citizens, many companies service providers. headquarters and that it would shut its San are pursuing a “digital first” policy for The most radical firms are doing away Francisco office next year. meetings. When Salesforce’s employees with headquarters altogether—becoming As these shifts take effect they will re­ can meet digitally, they should, says Brent fully “distributed”, in the jargon. Snow­ shape tech’s Californian heartland. More Hyder, the firm’s human­resources chief. flake, a data­management firm, now only firms will hire remote workers outside the Or, as he puts it, “We’re all equal on Zoom.” maintains an “executive office” in Boze­ region. More will follow Oracle, Tesla and Many businesses are planning more off­ man, Montana. The firm’s centre of gravity others, and move their head offices to site meetings to compensate for the extra has moved from its former base in Califor­ cheaper, less congested and lower­tax ju­ screen time (and rekindle social bonds). nia to local offices around the world. This risdictions such as Texas or Florida. Silicon “Since we will pay much less for real estate, makes sense given that, as Denise Persson, Valley will persist, though perhaps less as a we will have lots of budget for such things,” its chief marketing officer, points out, place and more as a global network. n Bartleby The perils of PR

Companies can get sucked in to spending too much on their image ome decades ago Bartleby was cover­ ent. Day 2: prperson sends follow­up angry phone call (Lord X will be very Sing the results of a company that was email to check journalist received earlier disappointed by your article) or even an then in the ftse100 index. He was ush­ missive. Day 3: prperson calls journalist attempt to influence the editor. ered into the offices of the firm’s public­ to make absolutely certain that they are The second prtype is much more relations outfit, whereupon the smooth­ aware of the emails’ existence. Day 4: pr discreet. Some issue the minimal talking pr man (still a titan of the in­ sends a fresh email about the same client, amount of information as part of a delib­ dustry today) launched into a ten­minute and the process begins anew. erate policy to keep their clients out of monologue about the company’s strat­ Perhaps this frenetic activity has a use. the headlines. Others are keen on pub­ egy. At that point a subordinate popped There is a chance that some publication licity but maintain a Trappist­like silence his head around the door and the prman has a desperate need to fill space, or was in meetings, content only to take notes was called away. “Thank goodness he’s looking for a random executive’s views on and enjoy expensive lunches while the gone,” said the chief executive. “Now I an issue of the day. But in most cases it client talks. Apart from inflating the can tell you what is really happening.” only serves to irritate the correspondent revenues of the restaurant industry, it Any big business may need a team to who has to deal with the pestering. can be hard to discern what function this handle its public image and to deal with The poor office juniors at the prcom­ group serves. the “reptiles” of the press, as Denis panies are given the thankless task of There is a third group. Some prpeo­ Thatcher dubbed them. (This extends to chasing emails. More senior staff operate ple supply useful facts about the compa­ pr firms: this week reports of inappro­ face­to­face, or at least did in the pre­ ny when asked, give an accurate steer on priate behaviour forced the boss of a big pandemic days. They tend to come in whether market rumours are true, and one, Teneo, to resign.) But once you start three types. The first is the interventionist arrange an interview with the chief employing pr people, it can be difficult mentioned earlier, who pontificates as if executive when required. These helpful to stop. In a variant of Parkinson’s law, they were actually on the board of the pr people are scattered unevenly across “pr expands to fill the budget available.” company concerned. Friendly on the the corporate sector. It is virtually impos­ Companies can hire an in­house team surface, these pr people tend to get pa­ sible to predict where they will be found. while also choosing to use an external pr tronising or hostile if the journalist asks The existence of these three catego­ firm. And if bad news strikes, bosses an uncomfortable question. An unfavour­ ries is not the only reason journalists often want to call in a firm that specialis­ able piece will be followed up with an have a love­hate relationship with the pr es in “crisis management”. industry. However irritating prpeople A company’s aim is to frame the nar­ can be, they are often one of the only rative in a favourable manner. Any firm conduits for information about a compa­ wants to be seen not as a money­grub­ ny. And many hacks in their 30s and 40s bing corporation that pollutes the envi­ opt to join the industry as a way of earn­ ronment and exploits its workers but as ing a bigger salary. In a sense, the rela­ an innovative pioneer with sustainable tionship is an ecosystem, in which both operations and a social conscience. An parties regard the other as the parasites. expert pr executive can hone such a Whether companies need to finance message and identify the best way of this system is another matter, as the communicating it to investors and the main benefits go to the participants. A lot wider public, for example by selecting of pr activity has zero impact on the the journalists and publications which client’s public profile. It seems like a will lend it a sympathetic ear. more extreme version of the famous That is the theory, at least. In practice, quote about advertising: three­quarters most journalists’ dealings with prpro­ of the money I spend on public relations fessionals resemble “groundhog day”. is wasted—the problem is knowing Day 1: prperson sends email about cli­ which three­quarters.

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Business 59

The film business “dominant share of the market (in excess Faster, still furious of 60%)” without explaining what that Curtain-raiser United States and Canada, box-office market is. And it defined “personal social revenues from new films’ opening weekends networking” to exclude things like profes­ Monthly total, $m sional networks (LinkedIn) or video­shar­ 500 ing sites (YouTube). To give the ftc its due, delineating digi­ 400 tal markets is devilishly tricky. Like Face­ Cannes kicks off a brighter blockbuster book, most social­media firms do not season. Backstage, things look bleaker 300 charge users, so the typical approach of ast spring at the Palais des Festivals in 200 looking at an industry’s consumer­derived LCannes couture­clad film stars gave way sales is no use. Facebook does have paying to camp beds and showers. When France 100 customers, firms that buy ads on its plat­ went into lockdown and the city’s film fete 0 forms, but the extent of that market, too, is was postponed, then cancelled, the glitzy hazy. If all American online advertising 2019 20 21 events space became a homeless shelter. counts, its share is 25%, according to an es­ Source: Box Oce Mojo This year’s bash, which begins on July 6th, timate by The Economist (see chart). Look­ offers a dose of Hollywood escapism. ing just at social­media advertising it does Screenings will be indoors, at full capacity. streaming on Disney+. In September it will rise to 60% in America (though globally Stars will strut the red carpet (with design­ give “Shang­Chi”,a superhero flick, 45 days Facebook’s share is declining). But what er face­masks and whiff of disinfectant the in cinemas. The next big test is on July 9th, qualifies as social media is amorphous, as only giveaways). Yet backstage, covid­19 when “Black Widow” will launch simulta­ features and rivals pop up and fizzle. has changed the film business for good. neously in cinemas and on Disney+ (for a The judge conceded that Facebook has Few industries were hit as hard. In 2020 surcharge), a first for a Marvel movie. Audi­ market power (“no one who hears the title global box­office takings fell by 80%, to ences will be on the edge of their seats. Stu­ of the 2010 film ‘The Social Network’ won­ $7.9bn. Still, the show has gone on. In Chi­ dio executives still more so. n ders which company it is about”) and he na, the world’s biggest market, theatres are has given the ftc 30 days to show this more nearly as busy as in 2019. Though America’s precisely. However, he also threw out one reopening has been slower, “f9”, the latest Big tech and antitrust of the agency’s core claims. The ftc ac­ “Fast and Furious” film released on June cused Facebook of stifling competition by 25th, took $70m in the best opening week­ Is Facebook a blocking rivals from its platform. Accord­ end since 2019. A pile­up of delayed block­ ing to Supreme Court precedents, the judge busters, from Spiderman to James Bond, monopolist? pointed out, such conduct is legal: mono­ will tempt audiences to return all year. polists have no “duty to deal”. Not all will, thanks to a choice of for­ That may make sense in the analogue mats that was “unimaginable” before the world. Critics like Ms Khan argue that in SAN FRANCISCO pandemic, notes Robert Fishman of Mof­ A judge rules there is no simple answer the digital one, where dominant platforms fettNathanson, a research firm. Previously, look a lot like pipe­owning utilities, it films spent about 90 days in cinemas be­ t last, it’s happening. Or so big tech’s amounts to a licence to kill competition. If fore making it to dvds or streaming. Co­ Acritics thought. President Joe Biden more cases against big tech stumble—as vid­19 shattered this “theatrical window” has named one of their own, Lina Khan, to may happen to those involving Apple and and this year’s slate of releases suggests it head the Federal Trade Commission (ftc). Google—that would lend weight to de­ is broken for good. Universal Pictures has A Congressional committee has approved mands to reform antitrust laws. Even this the option to put “f9” online just 31 days six bills to rein in Alphabet, Amazon, Ap­ may not be enough to get any of the six after its cinematic release. Its new “Boss ple and Facebook. Then, on June 28th, a bills, or anything like them, passed by the Baby” film will be free to watch on Peacock, federal judge provided a heavy dose of real­ gridlocked Senate. Despite a bipartisan its sister streaming platform, when it en­ ism by summarily dismissing two anti­ consensus in Washington that big tech is ters theatres on July 2nd. Paramount will trust cases against Facebook. too powerful, Democrats and Republicans release “Paw Patrol: the Movie” on its Para­ The unexpected ruling, which sent are unlikely to agree on the details of what mount+ service next month on the same Facebook’s market value past $1trn, was a to do about it. n day that it hits cinemas. Warner Bros has reminder that, in America, the swelling said that all its films this year will stream “techlash” may yield meagre results. Judge simultaneously on its hboMax service. James Boasberg—appointed by Mr Biden’s Choose your monopoly The five big Hollywood studios look former boss, Barack Obama—threw out Facebook, advertising market share, % poised to release about 40% fewer films ex­ one of the cases, brought by 46 states, on a 70 clusively in theatres than before the pan­ technicality. The complaint, which ac­ demic, reckons Mr Fishman. Had studios cused Facebook of acquiring nascent ri­ US social media 60 applied this new approach to their slate in vals, such as Instagram in 2012 and Whats­ 50 2019, 17% of America’s box­office receipts App in 2014, to cement its social­network­ would have been cannibalised by stream­ ing dominance, was deemed too tardy. Global social media 40 ing. For studios keen to promote their on­ More profoundly, the judge found the sec­ 30 line platforms, this may be a price worth ond case, lodged by the ftc, “legally insuf­ 20 paying. For cinemas it is a straight loss. ficient”. “It is almost as if the agency ex­ US digital “We’re in a box­office laboratory,” says pects the Court to simply nod to the con­ 10 Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore, a re­ ventional wisdom that Facebook is a mo­ 0 search firm. Disney, the biggest studio, is nopolist [in social­networking],” he wrote. 2015 2019181716 experimenting the most. Last month it That indeed seems to be what the ftc Sources: Bloomberg; Magna; The Economist sent “Luca”, a Pixar animation, straight to expected. It asserted that Facebook has a

012 60 Business The Economist July 3rd 2021

Schumpeter Raining on the parade

The risks of writing blank cheques to a cloud-computing oligopoly flexible data storage on the cloud to flexible office space such as WeWork. Both are similarly expensive, he says. He knows—his boutique firm of analysts is considering renting both. One reason Andreessen Horowitz has stirred up a storm is be­ cause it went a step further. The blog post raises the prospect of “repatriation”, arguing that companies could save considerable sums of money by bringing back their data from the cloud to their own servers. It uses the example of Dropbox, a file­sharing firm that in 2017 said it had saved $75m in the two years before its initial public offering chiefly by clawing back workloads from the cloud. Mr Casado and his colleague, Sarah Wang, estimate that a group of 50 such publicly traded software firms could halve their cloud bills by doing the same, collectively saving $4bn a year. That could, using generous price­earnings multiples, improve their market value by around $100bn. You don’t have to be a super­ sleuth to suspect an ulterior motive: if Silicon Valley unicorns take the hint, higher valuations could make venture capitalists like An­ dreessen Horowitz more money when they go public. This is an oversimplification, however, in several ways. First, the cloud is not just a cost. It can also boost revenues by providing young companies with the flexibility to scale up rapidly, acceler­ ate new product launches and expand internationally without or the past decade few aspects of modern life have made geeks having to build their own mishmash of racks, servers, wires and Fdrool more than the cloud, the cumulus of data centres domin­ plugs. Moreover, cloud providers offer more than storage and ated by three American tech giants, Amazon, Microsoft and Goo­ spare capacity. Increasingly their most valuable services are data gle, as well as Alibaba in China. In America some liken their posi­ analytics, prediction and machine learning, made possible by the tion of impregnability to that of Detroit’s three big carmakers, vast troves of data they can crunch. They may also be more diffi­ Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, a century ago. During the cult to hack. The question is whether a company gets a better re­ covid­19 pandemic they have helped transform people’s lives, sup­ turn on its investment by paying for cloud services, or by paying to porting online medical appointments, Zoom meetings and Netflix bring data centres, engineers and cyber­security in house. binges. They attract the brightest engineering talent. Amazon Web Second, the supply of engineers is finite. Whereas in the past Services (aws), the biggest, is now part of business folklore. So it is coders were trained to work with on­premise servers, the latest bordering on heresy to argue, as executives at Andreessen Horo­ generation knows more about working with cloud providers. That witz, a venture­capital firm, have done recently, that the cloud makes repatriation harder. In a recent podcast about its decision threatens to become a weight around the necks of big companies. in 2015 to shift entirely from its own servers to Google Cloud, Spot­ That possibly explains the defensiveness of Andreessen Horo­ ify, a music­streaming app, highlighted the opportunity costs of witz’s Martin Casado, co­author of the blog post titled “The cost of having engineers tied up managing its own data centres rather cloud: a trillion­dollar paradox”. On June 24th he described it in a than working on new products. (As a geeky relic, it keeps pieces of gathering on Clubhouse, a social­media app, as “one of the more its last big server in an urn.) misread, misquoted things I’ve ever done”. At the risk of further Third, profits are in the eye of the beholder. A company may mischaracterisation, Schumpeter would summarise it as follows. hope to improve margins by reducing the cost of renting cloud It uses paltry evidence and baffling numbers (where, for instance, servers. But building its own data centres requires investment. does the “trillion dollars” come from?) to propose an excessively Labour costs will also rise to pay for engineers to manage them. all­or­nothing business conundrum: “You’re crazy if you don’t start in the cloud; you’re crazy if you stay on it.” Yet for all its flaws, The silver lining? it is well­timed. It poses a question that businesses will have to There is little to suggest that the stampede into the cloud is slow­ think about for years to come. If they entrust all their data—the ing. Gartner, a data­gatherer, predicts that worldwide spending on lifeblood of the digital economy—to an oligopoly of cloud provid­ cloud services will increase by almost a quarter this year, to more ers, what control do they have over their costs? than $330bn. Repatriation is “an urban myth”, says Sid Nag, Gart­ It is a problem many companies are already grappling with. On ner’s research vice­president. “We just don’t see it.” June 29th the Information, an online tech publication, reported Continuing to write blank cheques to cloud providers is not that Apple, maker of the iPhone, is poised to spend $300m on sustainable, either. The more firms embrace cloud­computing, Google Cloud this year, a 50% increase from 2020. It is also using the more carefully they must manage its costs. The biggest users, aws and its own data centres to handle overflowing demand for such as Apple, bargain for huge discounts. Smaller ones lack the services such as iCloud, a data­storage app. On the same day the clout. To keep costs down, they may need to run basic storage in chief operating officer of a big software firm told your columnist house, diversify into the “multicloud” by spreading computing that the current trajectory of cloud costs is “unsustainable” but across several clouds, and make engineers responsible for cloud that it does not make sense just to leave the cloud. “It is very hard. expenditures. With luck, a low­cost alternative to the biggest One can’t be so simplistic as to say it’s all cloud for ever or it’s no clouds will emerge, much as Japanese car companies challenged cloud.” Jonathan Chaplin of New Street Research likens acquiring Detroit’s big three. That took half a century, though. n

012 Finance & economics The Economist July 3rd 2021 61

The economics of lockdowns er? Now that politicians are considering whether and when to lift existing restric­ Lives v livelihoods tions, or whether to impose new ones, the answers to these questions are still crucial for policy today. Alongside vaccines, lock­ downs remain an important way of coping with new variants and local outbreaks. In late June Sydney went into lockdown for Lockdowns have become an essential tool for coping with covid-19. Here’s how to two weeks; Indonesia, South Africa and assess their costs and benefits parts of Russia have followed suit. o me, i say the cost of a human life is ple were already so fearful that they avoid­ Countries have used a range of mea­ “Tpriceless, period,” said Andrew Cuo­ ed public spaces without needing to be sures to restrict social mixing over the past mo, the governor of New York state. As they told. They therefore credit the policy with year, from stopping people visiting bars tried to slow the spread of covid­19 in the saving lives but do not blame it for wreck­ and restaurants to ordering mask­wearing. spring of 2020, politicians took actions ing the economy. Those who hate lock­ The extent to which these strictures have that were unprecedented in their scale and downs say the opposite: that they de­ constrained life has varied widely across scope. The dire warnings of the deaths to stroyed livelihoods but did little to prevent countries and over time (see chart 1 on next come if nothing was done, and the sight of the virus spreading. page). A growing body of economic re­ overflowing Italian hospitals, were unfa­ The reality lies between these two ex­ search now explores the trade­off between miliar and terrifying. Before the crisis the tremes. Lockdowns both damage the econ­ lives and livelihoods associated with such notion of halting people’s day­to­day activ­ omy and save lives, and governments have policies. Economists have also compared ity seemed so economically and politically had to strike a balance between the two. their estimates of the costs of lockdowns costly as to be implausible. But once China Were trillions of dollars of lost economic with those of the benefits. Whether the and Italy imposed lockdowns, they became output an acceptable price to pay to have costs are worth incurring is a matter for de­ unavoidable elsewhere. slowed transmission of the disease? Or, bate not just among wonks, but also for Much of the public debate over covid­19 with around 10m people dead, should the society at large. has echoed Mr Cuomo’s refusal to think authorities have clamped down even hard­ People who see no trade­off at all might through the uncomfortable calculus be­ start by pointing to a study of the Spanish tween saving lives and the economy. To flu outbreak in America in 1918­20 by Ser­ → Also in this section oversimplify just a little, the two sides of gio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner, the lockdown debate hold diametrically 64 The Fed’s housing dilemma which suggested that cities that enacted opposed and equally unconvincing posi­ social distancing earlier may have ended 64 Banking in Hong Kong—a culture clash tions. Both reject the idea of a trade­off be­ up with better economic outcomes, per­ tween lives and livelihoods. Those who 65 Buttonwood: The carry trade returns haps because business could resume once support lockdowns say that they have had the pandemic was under control. But other 66 Free exchange: Chinese lessons few malign economic effects, because peo­ economists have criticised the paper’s

012 62 Finance & economics The Economist July 3rd 2021

methodology. Cities with economies that 1 were doing better before the pandemic, The lowdown on lockdown they say, happened to implement restric­ tions earlier. So it is unsurprising that they Effective lockdown index* GDP, % change on a year earlier also fared better afterwards. (The authors Most stringent=100 of the original paper note that pre­existing 2020 202 forecast trends are “a concern”, but that “our origi­ China Italy -5-10 1050 80 China nal conclusion that there is no obvious Germany trade­off between ‘flattening the curve’ Britain 60 Australia and economic activity is largely robust.”) Sweden Another plank of the no­trade­off argu­ 40 ment is the present­day experience of a United States handful of places. Countries such as Aus­ 20 Germany tralia and New Zealand followed a strategy US Sweden Italy of eliminating the virus, by locking down Australia 0 when recorded infections rose even to very 2020 2021 Britain low levels and imposing tough border con­ Sources: Goldman Sachs; IMF *Quantitative measure of mandated and voluntary social distancing. Seven-day moving average trols. “Covid­19 deaths per 1m population in oecd countries that opted for elimina­ tion...have been about 25 times lower than The experience across American states rich­country think­tank, and Colombe La­ in other oecdcountries that favoured miti­ also hints at the existence of a trade­off. dreit of Bocconi University uses slightly gation,” while “gdp growth returned to South Dakota, which imposed neither a different measures from the imf and finds pre­pandemic levels in early 2021 in the lockdown nor mask­wearing, has done that government orders do rather a lot to five countries that opted for elimination,” poorly in terms of deaths but its economy, explain behavioural change. argues a recent paper in the Lancet. The les­ on most measures, is faring better today Moreover, the line between compul­ son seems to be that elimination allows than it was before the pandemic. Migration sion and voluntary actions is more blurred the economy to restart and people to move patterns also tell you something. There than most analysis assumes. People’s about without fear. have been plenty of stories in recent choices are influenced both by social pres­ months about people moving to Florida (a sure and by economics. Press conferences Something for nothing low­restriction state) and few about people where public­health officials or prime But correlations do not tell you much. Such going to Vermont (the state with the fewest ministers warn about the dangers of the vi­ countries’ success so far may say more deaths from covid­19 per person, after rus do not count as “mandated” restric­ about good fortune than it does about en­ Hawaii), points out Tyler Cowen of George tions on movement; but by design they lightened policy. What was available to is­ Mason University. Americans, at least, do have a large effect on behaviour. And in the lands such as Australia, Iceland and New not always believe that efforts to control pandemic certain voluntary decisions had Zealand was not possible for most coun­ covid­19 make life more worth living. to be enabled by the government. Topped­ tries, which have land borders (and once What if all these economic costs are the up unemployment benefits and furlough the virus was spreading widely, eradica­ result not of government restrictions, schemes made it easier for people to tion was almost impossible). Japan and though, but of personal choice? This too is choose not to go to work, for instance. South Korea have seen very low deaths argued by those who reject the idea of a Put all this together and it seems clear from covid­19 and are also cited by the Lan- trade­off. If they are correct, then the no­ that governments’ actions did indeed get cet paper as having pursued elimination. tion that simply lifting restrictions can people to stay at home, with costly conse­ But whether they did so or not is question­ boost the economy becomes a fantasy. Peo­ quences for the economy. But were the able; neither country imposed harsh lock­ ple will go out and about only when cases benefits worth the costs? Economic re­ downs. Perhaps instead their experience are low; if infections start rising, then peo­ search on this question tries to resolve with the sars epidemic in the early 2000s ple will shut themselves away again. three uncertainties: over estimates of the helped them escape relatively unscathed. A number of papers have bolstered this costs of lockdowns; over their benefits; When you look at more comparable argument. The most influential, by Austan and, when weighing up the costs and bene­ cases—countries that are close together, Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, two econo­ fits, over how to put a price on life—doing say, or different parts of the same coun­ mists, analyses mobility along administra­ what Mr Cuomo refused to do. try—the notion that there is no trade­off tive boundaries in America, at a time when between lives and livelihoods becomes one government imposed restrictions but The cure v the disease less credible. Research by Goldman Sachs, the other did not. It finds that people on ei­ Start with the costs. The huge collateral a bank, shows a remarkably consistent re­ ther side of the border behaved similarly, damage of lockdowns is becoming clear. lationship between the severity of lock­ suggesting that it was almost entirely per­ Global unemployment has spiked. Hun­ downs and the hit to output: moving from sonal choice, rather than government or­ dreds of millions of children have missed France’s peak lockdown (strict) to Italy’s ders, which explains their decision to limit school, often for months. Families have peak (extremely strict) is associated with a social contact; people may have taken been kept apart. And much of the damage decline in gdp of about 3%. Countries in fright when they heard of local deaths from is still to come. A recent paper by Francesco the euro area with more excess deaths as the virus. Research by the imf draws simi­ Bianchi, Giada Bianchi and Dongho Song measured by The Economist are seeing a lar conclusions. suggests that the rise in American unem­ smaller hit to output: in Finland, which There are reasons to think these find­ ployment in 2020 will lead to 800,000 ad­ has had one of the smallest rises in excess ings overstate the power of voluntary be­ ditional deaths over the next 15 years, a not deaths in the club, gdp per person will fall haviour, however. Sweden, which had long inconsiderable share of American deaths by 1% in 2019­21, according to the imf; but resisted imposing lockdowns, eventually from covid­19 that have been plausibly in Lithuania, the worst­performing mem­ did so when cases rose—an admission that averted by lockdowns. A new paper pub­ ber in terms of excess deaths, gdp per per­ they do make a difference. More recent re­ lished by America’s National Bureau of son will rise by more than 2%. search from Laurence Boone of the oecd, a Economic Research (nber) expects that in

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Finance & economics 63

poor countries, where the population is efit studies of lockdowns when estimates 2 relatively young, the economic contrac­ The covid calculus of the vsl are altered (see chart 2). Adjust­ tion associated with lockdowns could po­ United States, estimated costs and benefits ing for age can sharply reduce the net bene­ tentially lead to 1.76 children’s lives being of covid-19 policies, $trn fits of lockdowns, and can even lead to are­ lost for every covid­19 fatality averted, sult where “the policy no longer appears probably because wellbeing suffers as in­ Costs Range of benefits cost­beneficial”. Given that these models comes decline. 100806040200 do not take into account the harder­to­ Research is more divided over the sec­ Thunström et al. measure costs of lockdowns—how to price ond uncertainty: the benefit of lockdowns, (2020) the damage caused by someone not being or the extent to which they reduce the able to attend a family Christmas, say, or a spread of, and deaths from, covid­19. The Acemoglu et al. friend’s funeral?—the question of whether (2020) fact that, time and again, the imposition of they were worth it starts to look like more a lockdown in a country was followed a few Greenstone and of a toss­up. weeks later by declining cases and deaths Nigam (2020)* Once you open the door to making ad­ might appear to settle the debate. That *No cost estimate justments, things become more compli­ said, another recent nber paper failed to Source: “Do the benefits of covid-19 policies exceed the costs? cated still. Research on risk perception find that countries or American states that Exploring uncertainties in the age-VSL relationship”, by finds that uncertainty and dread over an L. Robinson, R. Sullivan and J.F. Shogren, Risk Analysis, 2020 were quick to implement shelter­in­place especially bad outcome, especially one policies had fewer excess deaths than plac­ that involves more suffering before death, es which were slower to act. A paper pub­ £30,000 (which seems close to a vsl of mean that people may be willing to pay far lished in the Proceedings of the National around £300,000, or $417,000, given how more to avoid dying from it. People appear Academy of Sciences, a scientific journal, by many years of life the typical person dying to value not dying from cancer far more Christopher Berry of the University of Chi­ of covid­19 loses). The lower the monetary than not dying in a road accident, for in­ cago and colleagues, cannot find “effects of value you place on lives, the less good lock­ stance. Many went to extraordinary [shelter­in­place] policies on disease downs do by saving them. lengths to avoid contracting covid­19, sug­ spread or deaths”, but does find “small, de­ The appropriate way to value a change gesting that they place enormous value on layed effects on unemployment”. in the risk of death or life expectancy is not dying from that disease. Some evi­ subject to debate. Mr Miles’s number does, dence suggests that the vsl might need to Is the price right? however, look low. In Britain the govern­ be increased by a factor of two or more, Running through all this is the final uncer­ ment’s “end­of­life” guidance allows treat­ writes James Hammitt, also of Harvard, in tainty, over putting a price on life. That ments that are expected to increase life ex­ a recent paper. That adjustment could practice might seem cold­hearted but is pectancy by one qalyto cost up to £50,000, make lockdowns look very worthwhile. necessary for lots of public policies. How points out Adrian Kent of Cambridge Uni­ The malleability of cost­benefit analy­ much should governments pay to make versity in a recent paper, and allows a sis itself hints at the true answer of wheth­ sure that bridges don’t collapse? How threshold of up to £300,000 per qaly for er or not lockdowns were worth it. The should families be compensated for the treating rare diseases. But it may be equally benefit of a saved life is not a given but wrongful death of a relative? There are dif­ problematic to use the American bench­ emerges from changing social norms and ferent ways to calculate the value of a sta­ mark of $11m for covid­19, which dispro­ perceptions. What may have seemed tistical life (vsl). Some estimates are de­ portionately affects the elderly. Because worthwhile at the height of the pandemic rived from the extra compensation that older people have fewer expected years left may look different with the benefit of people accept in order to take certain risks than the average person, researchers may hindsight. Judgments over whether or not (say, the amount of extra pay for those do­ choose to use lower estimates of the vsl. lockdowns made sense will be shaped by ing dangerous jobs); others from surveys. The best attempt at weighing up these how society and politics evolve over the Cost­benefit analyses have become competing valuations is a recent paper by coming years—whether there is a backlash something of a cottage industry during the Lisa Robinson of Harvard University and against the people who imposed lock­ pandemic, and their conclusions vary colleagues, which assesses what happens downs, whether they are feted, or whether wildly. One paper by a team at Yale Univer­ to the results of three influential cost­ben­ the world moves on. n sity and Imperial College, London, finds that social distancing, by preventing some deaths, provides benefits to rich countries in the region of 20% of gdp—a huge figure that plausibly exceeds even the gloomiest estimates of the collateral damage of lock­ downs. But research by David Miles, also of Imperial College, and colleagues finds that the costs of Britain’s lockdown between March and June 2020 were vastly greater than their estimates of the benefits in terms of lives saved. An important reason for the big differ­ ences in cost­benefit calculations is dis­ agreement over the vsl. Many rely on a blanket estimate that applies to all ages equally, which American regulatory agen­ cies deem is about $11m. At the other ex­ treme Mr Miles follows convention in Brit­ ain, which says that the value of one qual­ ity­adjusted life­year (qaly) is equal to Locked down and fed up

012 64 Finance & economics The Economist July 3rd 2021

House prices in America Banks in Hong Kong House on fire On the simmer United States Culture clash

Case-Shiller house-price index % change on a year earlier

NEW YORK 20 HONG KONG Should the Fed still prop up a hot 10 The territory is caught between housing market? 0 Chinese and Western market practices ruly extraordinary.” That was -10 ong kong is where China meets the “Thow Craig Lazzara of s&p Global, the -20 Houtside world. The territory has long firm that compiles a widely watched mea­ 1988 21151005200095 been a training ground for mainland Chi­ sure of house prices in America, described nese bankers hoping to take on the planet. its reading for the month of April, released But recently it is Wall Street banks that are 3-year interest rates, % on June 29th. House prices rose by 14.6% 5 being schooled in Chinese practices. As year over year, the fastest rate in the 34­ Fixed mortgage rate companies from the mainland have come year history of the index (see chart, top 4 to dominate initial public offerings (ipos) panel). Houses listed for sale are on aver­ 3 and bond issuances in the territory, so too age snapped up in just 17 days, a record low. 2 have mainland methods crept into the un­ Treasuries On Reddit, a social­media site, would­be 1 derwriting process behind the deals. buyers bemoan missing out on house after 0 Western banks have decried the shift, house because they are unwilling to forgo claiming it hampers price discovery. Glo­ 2120191817162015 inspecting the property on which they plan bal investors are also up in arms about Sources: S&P Global; Bloomberg to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars, what they say are inflated stock and bond something that most successful buyers are offerings. Hong Kong’s Securities and Fu­ apparently doing. bility. He is not alone. Robert Kaplan, the tures Commission (sfc) is attempting to The Federal Reserve still has monetary head of the Dallas Fed, has said that there address the clash. It has released a consul­ policy on ultra­loose mode. Interest rates are “some unintended consequences and tation paper that proposes codifying West­ are anchored at zero and the central bank is side­effects of these [mortgage­backed­se­ ern norms. The results of the consultation buying $120bn­worth of assets each curity] purchases that we are seeing play are expected in coming weeks and could month—$80bn of Treasuries and $40bn of out”, including contributing to rocketing add a new set of rules to the sfc’s existing mortgage­backed securities—in order to house prices. James Bullard, the president code of conduct for bankers. Whatever the depress long­term interest rates. This of the St. Louis Fed, told cnbc on June 18th outcome, it is sure to stir controversy. stance is in many ways still justified. There that “maybe we don’t need to be in mort­ The process of bringing an ipo or bond are 7.6m fewer jobs in America than there gage­backed securities with a booming to investors is generally defined by many were before the pandemic. A large minori­ housing market.” unwritten practices shaped by the market ty of adults remains unvaccinated. And yet At the Fed’s monetary­policy meeting where the deal is underwritten. Hong consumer­price inflation has climbed to on June 15th and 16th Jerome Powell, its Kong’s investment­banking culture bor­ an annual rate of 4.9%, and commodities chairman, made clear that the central bank rowed heavily from the Eurobond market and labour are in short supply. A real­time is not yet ready to stop buying assets, but that developed in London in the 1970s and estimate of economic output compiled by has begun to discuss when might be appro­ 1980s. Companies issuing securities have the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta puts priate. One option might be to do what Mr usually appointed a lead bank among the annualised gdpgrowth in the second quar­ Rosengren called a “two­speed taper”, syndicate of institutions underwriting the ter at a heady 8.3%. If true, America has re­ slowing mortgage purchases more quickly deal at an early stage in the process. The covered all the output lost during the pan­ than purchases of Treasuries. If housing role of the banks, and the purpose of their demic and even added more. needs less support than the wider econ­ fees, has been clear. Crucially, the lead The case of the housing market aptly il­ omy this seems a sensible step. The Fed has bank can advise the company on pricing lustrates how different corners of the already begun to offload corporate bonds and allocating shares to investors. This economy are pulling the Fed along at dif­ bought through an emergency programme helps ensure the demand for securities is ferent speeds, if not in different directions. launched in spring 2020, because the li­ genuine. The setup also brings in investors The current property craze is at least in part quidity crunch that prompted interven­ with experience in valuing securities, and spurred on by loose monetary policy. Low tion has abated. keeps out speculative cash. mortgage rates, which are a function of A two­speed taper probably would not All this has been changing, however. prevailing yields on mortgage­backed se­ dent the housing market by much. For a Today many companies, mainly ones hail­ curities, tend to entice would­be home­ start, the heat seems also to reflect a fall in ing from mainland China, do not assign buyers. Given that the housing market is supply during the pandemic, rather than roles to the banks until the last possible already fired up, it might seem odd that the low rates alone. And in any case, it is not as moment, allowing for a scrum of invest­ Fed is juicing it further by buying mort­ if the mortgage­backed­security market ment banks to vie for supremacy—and gage­backed securities and suppressing operates in isolation from broad monetary fees—in the syndicate. In some recent mortgage rates. conditions. Yields tend to closely track bond deals dozens of banks have ended up Even some Fed officials are discomfited those of Treasuries, even when the Fed is on the ticket, each scrapping for a puny fee. by this turn of affairs. In an interview with not buying up assets (see chart, bottom Instead of a co­ordinated pricing process, the Financial Times on June 27th Eric Ro­ panel). If the central bank is not ready to the result is muddied price discovery. sengren, the president of the Boston Fed, tighten monetary policy yet, then a hot Banks knowingly take inflated orders, said that America could not afford a housing market might be a side­effect it driving up the price of the security. In one “boom­and­bust cycle” in the housing has to live with. Still, it probably does not case the sfc found that the heads of an ipo market that would threaten financial sta­ need to egg property prices on. n syndicate spread misleading information

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Finance & economics 65

that overstated the demand for shares. In reflects sour grapes. Chinese companies plicitly reject the creeping influence from debt deals some banks submit “x orders” have gone from issuing about $20bn in us­ mainland financial institutions and could that do not disclose the identity of their cli­ dollar denominated bonds in 2011, or about disadvantage Chinese companies seeking ents and make it harder to assess true de­ 1% of global issuance, to about $209bn in to raise capital in Hong Kong and their mand. It is these newer practices that Hong 2019, or 6% of the global market, according mainland bankers, while giving Wall Street Kong’s regulators want to push back to Dealogic, a data provider. They have also banks and global investors an edge. No against, while acknowledging the older made Hong Kong one of the world’s largest wonder, then, that it only reluctantly took methods as best practice. ipo venues for a decade. Mainland banks up the case for a code, after years of lobby­ Many global banks support the estab­ have shot up in the league tables for such ing by global investment managers and lishment of a set of standards. “We all have offerings in that time. It is only natural, a banks. But there are worse imaginable sce­ to be singing from the same hymn sheet,” banker at one such firm says, that they narios for the regulator—such as one in notes one banker. Mainland institutions, have greater control over market practices. which opacity slowly engulfs the market, though, have a different tale to tell. They The sfc is in the unenviable position of and investors see little distinction be­ say the griping from Western rivals mainly having to pick sides. Its proposed rules im­ tween Hong Kong and the mainland. n ButtonwoodCarrying on

Interest-rate rises in emerging markets mean the carry trade is back f you like a central bank that responds yielder. Turkey’s yields are high even That brings us to the carry trade. Ito inflation surprises by—and here’s a though its public­debt burden is well Policymakers in emerging markets are retro touch—raising interest rates, then below the emerging­market average. galled by the vagaries of capital flows. the Banco de México might be the one for High yields are in the end a reflection But carry traders are their friends. The you. On June 24th it surprised the mar­ of a lack of domestic savings, says Gene inflation expectations that central bank­ kets by increasing its benchmark rate Frieda of pimco, a fixed­income fund ers bang on about are entwined with the from 4% to 4.25%. Although it said in its manager. A telltale sign is a country’s exchange rate. A weakening currency can statement that much of the recent rise in current­account balance. As a matter of be a sign of anxiety about inflation. And inflation was “transitory”, the scale and accounting, a deficit means that domestic in the past year, currency weakness has persistence of inflation was worrying savings are not sufficient to cover in­ also been a source of emerging­market enough to warrant higher interest rates. vestment. Foreign capital is needed and inflation, says Gabriel Sterne of Oxford Mexico is no outlier. Brazil’s central high yields are the lure. Much of emerging Economics, a consultancy. So when a bank has pushed up interest rates to Asia runs a surplus on its current account central bank raises interest rates, it is in 4.25% from a low of 2% in March. Russia and has high domestic savings—and thus part because it wants a stronger currency has raised its main rate to 5.5% in three low yields. Poland and the Czech Republic, to curb import costs. This might be the separate moves. These countries belong both low­yielders, were able to reliably quickest way to bring inflation down. to the high­yielders, a group of biggish augment their domestic savings with eu For their part, carry traders like a yield emerging­market economies, where grants and direct investment from West­ curve that is steep—meaning five­ or interest rates are some distance from the ern European firms. Russia, which has ten­year bond yields are a lot higher than rich­world norm of zero. All three believe high yields and a current­account surplus, short­term interest rates. A steep curve a lot of today’s inflation will fade. But looks like an exception. But the surplus captures expectations of future rises in none is taking any chances. reflects its ultra­conservative monetary policy rates. Traders also hope to bet on Scan the central banks’ statements, and fiscal policies, says Mr Frieda. The net an appreciating currency. Factors other and a clear concern emerges: keeping effect is to raise yields and lower gdp than interest rates then come into play. expectations of inflation in check. This is growth but strengthen the balance of One is valuation. If a currency has fallen in part, or even mostly, about exchange payments. Russia’s rulers accept this to a long way recently, it has greater scope rates. Higher interest rates keep domes­ avoid being beholden to foreign capital. to rise again. Another is a country’s terms tic savings onshore in the local currency. of trade, the prices of its exports relative They also entice capital from yield­ to imports. Oil exporters are in favour starved foreigners. This is called the now because of high oil prices. Carry carry trade—and it is coming back. traders must be mindful of influences High interest rates are now so rare in that could blow up a currency. Turkey large economies that where they occur has attractively high yields, but its erratic they require explanations. Latin America monetary policy creates a minefield. has a history of inflation. It is hard to get Brazil, Mexico and Russia are at the people to trust a currency when memo­ leading edge of a new trend. Economists ries of betrayal linger. A related explana­ at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, reckon that tion is high public debt. Brazil’s burden is Chile, Colombia and Peru will soon be nearing 100% of gdp. Fiscal inconti­ raising rates. South Africa will join them nence in developing countries often before the year is out. The Banco de leads to inflation. High yields are needed México and company are not going to to compensate for that risk. But such hang out a sign saying “carry traders explanations only get you so far. Though welcome”. But they mightas well put one Poland has suffered an episode of hyper­ up. The more their currencies rise, the inflation in living memory, it is a low­ less work they have to do. n

012 66 Finance & economics The Economist July 3rd 2021

Free exchange A decade of Chinese lessons

Why our departing China economics editor remains optimistic about the country’s growth can lean on its banks because they are enormously profitable to begin with. The telltale signs of an overdrawn economy—high in­ flation, rampant unemployment and corporate malaise—exist in pockets in China, but they are the exception, not the rule. This point was driven home when your columnist moved from Beijing to Shanghai in 2014. Each city has its charms, but Shanghai unquestionably offers a more flattering picture of the economy. Beijing, a showcase for political power, is blotted by the hulking headquarters of state­owned enterprises. Day trips take reporters to China’s greatest economic calamities, from overbuilt Tianjin to coal­mine carnage in Inner Mongolia. In Shanghai, which func­ tions remarkably well for a city of 25m, reporters instead hop over to see high­tech innovators in Hangzhou, nimble exporters in Wuxi and ambitious entrepreneurs in Wenzhou. They show that even as the tenth year of Xi Jinping’s rule approaches, two of the fundamental underpinnings of China’s economic dynamism re­ main intact: red­blooded competition in the private sector and the restless quest of millions upon millions of ordinary people to im­ prove their lot in life. These days, saying nice things about China’s economy comes with baggage, not least because of the Communist Party’s insis­ tence that its growth record is proof of its superior political sys­ icture the moment of confusion in a taxi in Guiyang, a city in tem. It is true that the government has had a crucial hand in the Psouth­western China. Your columnist had asked the driver to country’s development, starting with the fact that it has been “In­ go to the new district. “The new new district or the old new dis­ frastructure Week” just about every week in China since 1990. trict?” he asked. It was, it emerged, the old new district—a place The correct response to the party’s boasting is not to deny Chi­ that seven years ago, on an earlier visit to Guiyang, had looked like na its success, but to insist on proper attribution. Japan, South Ko­ the sort of ghost town then dominating horror stories about Chi­ rea and Taiwan were its forerunners in using repressed financial na’s economy, full of giant empty buildings. This time, however, systems to enable investment and in relying on exports to become the problem was the exact opposite. What was meant to be a quick more competitive. China has repeated all this, albeit at a far great­ jaunt turned into a traffic­clogged headache, the taxi crawling er, and arguably more impressive, scale. At the same time, its sus­ along in a sea of red tail lights. The old new district had filled in, tained rapid growth of the past four decades has less to do with the and then some. wisdom of the Politburo than with the work of a brilliant Saint Lu­ One reason why it is good for journalists to stay in a country for cian economist, Sir Arthur Lewis, who in the 1950s explained that a long stint is that it helps breed humility. Assumptions that once shifting labour from low­value farming to higher­value industry appeared iron­clad gather rust as the years roll by. That is true for can, if managed right, engender just such a catch­up process. most places. But it is especially so when covering something as complex as China’s economy, which your columnist had the privi­ And now for something completely different lege to do over the past decade. The coming decade is sure to prove more challenging. With 65% of This, to be clear, is not a mea culpa for being overly gloomy. Chinese people already in cities and the population close to peak­ There were also times of excess optimism about China’s capacity ing, Mr Lewis would point out that there is little scope for further for change. Take rebalancing. As far back as 2007 Wen Jiabao, then gains from turning farmers into factory workers. Parallels be­ China’s prime minister, decried its economy as “unstable, unbal­ tween China and the Asian dynamos of yesteryear are breaking anced”—evidence, it seemed, that leaders grasped the problem down. China is older and more indebted than they were at the and were ready to act. Yet the economy only became more unsta­ same stage. Whereas most countries seek to strengthen the rule of ble, culminating in a nearly epic meltdown in 2015. And it is as un­ law as they mature, Mr Xi is cultivating stronger party control. balanced as ever, with investment running far ahead of consump­ Add to that a treacherous external environment. Faced with the tion. Nevertheless, it is hard to escape the conclusion that in the threat of economic decoupling from the West, it is only rational economic realm, China got more right than wrong over the past for China to pursue greater self­reliance. Thanks to its size and so­ decade. How else to score its performance when, despite many phistication, it may well triumph in key sectors, from semicon­ predictions of doom, it doubled in size during that time? ductors to robotics. But the sorry history of import substitution A common riposte is that this success is illusory—that the gov­ globally should make clear that this is a sub­optimal strategy in­ ernment has simply delayed the comedown from its debt­fuelled volving much waste and eventually leading to lower growth. high. The deferral of pain is certainly part of the mix. Perhaps the All this is almost enough to turn you into a China bear: to pred­ safest bet in economics is that when growth slows sharply, China ict not an almighty crash but rather an ineluctable slide towards will unveil yet more infrastructure projects and call on banks to stagnation. In conversations with analysts and investors, versions make still more loans. And if those projects or loans fail, officials of this narrative crop up again and again. That it has become have few qualms about orchestrating bail­outs and roll­overs. something like the consensus view is the single biggest reason What is less appreciated is that China’s ability to engage in why your columnist, after a long run in China, suspects that its such engineering is itself a measure of success. The government economy will fare considerably better. n

012 Science & technology The Economist July 3rd 2021 67

Urban environments developed a way to do this starting with even the most unpromising derelict areas. The constant gardener Dr Miyawaki (pictured above) retired from his university post in 1993, but is still going strong. And the Miyawaki method, as it has become known, is finding increasing fa­ vour around the world. Dr Miyawaki’s insight was to decon­ struct and rebuild the process of ecological Could miniature forests help air-condition cities? succession, by which bare land develops ity air is in a sorry state. It is dirty and found that American cities need 40% tree naturally into mature forest. Usually, the Chot. Outdoor pollution kills 4.2m peo­ coverage to cut urban heat back meaning­ first arrival is grass. Shrubs sprout later, ple a year, according to the World Health fully. Unfortunately, not all cities—and es­ followed by small trees and, finally, larger Organisation. Concrete and tarmac, mean­ pecially not those now springing up in the ones. Incipient and mature woodlands while, absorb the sun’s rays rather than re­ world’s poor and middle­income coun­ therefore contain different species. The flecting them back into space, and also dis­ tries—are blessed with parks, private gar­ Miyawaki method skips some of the early place plants which would otherwise cool dens or even ornamental street trees in phases and jumps directly to planting the things down by evaporative transpiration. sufficient numbers. And the problem is kinds of species found in a mature wood. The relentless spread of buildings and likely to get worse. At the moment, 55% of When starting a Miyawaki forest, those roads thus turns urban areas into heat is­ people live in cities. By 2050 that share is involved, who often refer to themselves as lands, discomforting residents and exacer­ expected to reach 68%. gardeners, first analyse the soil in which it bating dangerous heatwaves, which are in will grow. If necessary, they improve it by any case likely to become more frequent as Under the greenwood tree mixing in suitable fertilisers. These need the planet warms. One group of botanists believe they have at not be expensive. Chicken manure and A possible answer to the twin problems least a partial solution to this lack of urban press mud (the solid residue left behind of pollution and heat is trees. Their leaves vegetation. It is to plant miniature simula­ when sugar­cane juice is filtered) are effec­ may destroy at least some chemical pollut­ cra of natural forests, ecologically engi­ tive and essentially free. They then select ants (the question is debated) and they cer­ neered for rapid growth. Over the course of 100 or so local plant species to deploy. tainly trap airborne particulate matter, a career that began in the 1950s their leader, These are chosen by surveying the nearby which is then washed to the ground by Miyawaki Akira, a plant ecologist at Yoko­ area on foot instead of relying on pub­ rain. And trees cool things down. Besides hama National University, in Japan, has lished guidebooks, which have a habit of transpiration, they provide shade. Their being out of date or even simply wrong. leaves have, after all, evolved to intercept Using a wide mix of species, not all of → Also in this section sunlight, the motor of photosynthesis. them trees, is important. Most plantations, To cool an area effectively, though, trees 68 A virtual clinical trial having been created for commercial pur­ must be planted in quantity. In 2019 re­ poses, are monocultures. But trees, shrubs 69 A new human species? searchers at the University of Wisconsin and ground­covering herbs all coexist in

012 68 Science & technology The Economist July 3rd 2021

As to guava, the forest grew so many of them that his mother had to give them away to neighbours. What Mr Sharma and others like him offer looks like a modern version of the 19th­century movements that brought city parks and their associated health benefits to the industrialising West. In those days the prevailing attitude towards nature was to try to tame it, and the parks created re­ flect that in their controlled, formal de­ sign. Now, greenery and environmental­ ism are the fashion, and the quasi­wild Mi­ yawaki approach reflects this to a T. The purpose is the same as before—to intro­ duce rus in urbe. But the means are com­ pletely in tune with the times. The Miyawaki method will never work for large­scale reafforestation. It is too la­ My! How you’ve grown! A Miyawaki forest, three months after planting bour intensive. Relying on nature and the passage of time is probably the best bet for natural forests, and the Miyawaki versions The method is becoming popular out­ replanting extensive areas of damaged therefore have this variety from the start. side Asia, too. In Europe, Belgium, France woodlands, though technophiles dream of Not only does that pack more greenery into and the Netherlands are all home to Miya­ speeding things up by distributing seeds a given space, it also encourages the plants waki forests. There are also a handful in by drone. But if your goal is to better your to grow faster—for there are lots of positive Latin America. Wherever they are planting, immediate locale, rather than to save the ecological relations in a natural forest. though, gardeners are not constrained to planet from global warming—and maybe Vines rely on trees for support. Trees give follow nature’s recipe book to the letter. to grow a few guava on the side—then Dr shade to shrubs. And, beneath the surface, Miyawaki forests can be customised to lo­ Miyawaki might well be your man. n plants’ roots interact with each other, and cal requirements. A popular choice, for ex­ with soil fungi, in ways that enable a nutri­ ample, is to include more fruit trees than a ent exchange which is only now beginning natural forest might support, thus creating Medical testing to be understood. an orchard that requires no upkeep. After selecting their species, the gar­ One such pomologist is Shubhendu Virtually real deners gather seeds and plant them at ran­ Sharma. Mr Sharma has, through Afforestt, dom, rather than in rows. And they plant at a firm he founded in 2011, become a leading high density. The seedlings therefore have proponent of the Miyawaki method. He to fight for sunlight, so only the fastest­ was once an engineer at Toyota’s factory in growing survive. Trees planted in this way Bangalore and has brought his experience Clinical trials inside computers are can shoot up as much as 14% more rapidly building cars to bear on the question of on their way than normal. For three years, the gardeners tree planting. He is particularly hot on time water and nurture their handiwork. Then it and motion. He has measured how long, linical trials are expensive, time­ is left to fend for itself. A couple of decades on average, it takes to plant each sort of Cconsuming and risky for those taking later the whole thing reaches maturity. seed or seedling and uses that information part. The hunt is therefore on for computer Dr Miyawaki has supervised the plant­ to schedule their sowing. Since its founda­ models good enough to replace warm bo­ ing of more than 1,500 of these miniature tion, Afforestt has created 138 forests in ten dies for at least the preliminary phases of forests, first in Japan, then in other parts of countries in this way, and is currently set­ trials. In a paper in Nature Communications, the world. Others are now following in his ting up four more. It has also spawned at Alejandro Frangi of the University of footsteps. India is particularly keen. In least 15 imitators, in places as disparate as Leeds, in Britain, and his colleagues have Mumbai, more than 200,000 trees are Australia, Chile and Iran. published the results of the most compre­ found in Miyawaki forests throughout the hensive such virtual trial yet attempted. city and its suburbs. In Bangalore, more Here’s one I prepared earlier Dr Frangi and his team are investigating than 50,000 (see before­and­after picture Mr Sharma’s epiphany came one day in stent­like devices called intracranial flow above, for a forest planted near the city’s 2009, when Dr Miyawaki arrived at his diverters. These control the passage of airport). A group in Chennai has set up 25 workplace to plant a forest there. He was so blood through brain arteries and are often such forests. The authorities in Tirunelve­ impressed by this that he decided to trans­ used to treat cerebral aneurysms—bulges li, in the country’s south, use the Miyawaki form his own backyard in like manner, that form in an arterial wall, in which method to create green cover in the city’s with a planting that featured especially blood then accumulates. If a cerebral aneu­ schools. Hyderabad started growing the guava trees. When he began, only seven rysm bursts, it causes a so­called haemor­ largest individual forest of the lot, across types of bird lived in the yard. Two years rhagic stroke, damaging surrounding tis­ four hectares, in 2020. later he counted 17. Beforehand, rain used sue by engulfing it in blood. Inserting a Over India’s western border, in Paki­ to gather in puddles, forming a breeding flow diverter directs the bloodstream away stan, people are following suit. The Minis­ ground for mosquitoes. Once the trees from the aneurysm, permitting blood al­ try of Climate Change claims the country were established, the soil opened up and ready within the bulge to stay in place and has 126 Miyawaki forests, with 51 in Lahore, the puddles disappeared. The forest also clot, thus blocking the aneurysm up. 20 in Islamabad and five in Karachi. And to successfully cooled the air. Mr Sharma The researchers’ experimental “sub­ India’s north, in Nepal, the city of Janakpur found that the temperature under his trees jects” were computer models derived from is likewise planning a Miyawaki blitz. was 5°C below that of the surrounding area. detailed three­dimensional scans of the

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Science & technology 69

brains of 82 volunteers with cerebral aneu­ Palaeoanthropology cluding Homo erectus, Homo floresiensis, rysms. The team inserted software repre­ Homo heidelbergensis and Homo neander- sentations of flow diverters into these A new human thalensis, Dr Ni and Dr Ji concluded that it models and recorded the consequences for was none of them, and must therefore be virtual blood flow through the virtual species? new to science and so worthy of its own brains in question. They then compared name. There is, however, one other pos­ their results with those from three trials of sibility—for there is a now­extinct type of the procedure carried out in the real world human of which no cranium has yet been Or perhaps the first cranium of one in recent years. They confirmed what these identified. Homo denisova‘s existence was already known real trials had found—that the flow diver­ established by the extraction of dnafrom a ters do indeed encourage clots to form in wo new studies add further pieces to finger bone, and traces of that dna, a rem­ aneurysms—and they rated the stents’ ef­ Tthe jigsaw puzzle that is human evolu­ nant of interspecies breeding, still exist in fectiveness at this task as similarly good. tion. One reports a potential extra member modern humans, notably in China. Since Besides confirming what was already of the genus Homo. The other casts light on one of the Harbin fossil’s molars perfectly known, Dr Frangi’s virtual trial also inves­ possible interbreeding between three hu­ matches the size and root structure of a tigated previously untested phenomena. man species in the Middle East. molar from the Denisova cave in Russia, For example, past reports in the literature Homo longi—“Dragon man” as translat­ after which Homo denisova is named, it have suggested that for aneurysms near ed into English from Chinese, via Latin—is may be that Dr Ni and Dr Ji have actually places where arteries fork into two branch­ not a novel find, but a reinterpretation of identified the first Denisovan cranium. es, inserting a flow­diverter actually in­ an existing one. The cranium in question The other study, published in Scienceby creases the risk of a second type of stroke, was dug up in Harbin in 1933 and is held at Israel Hershkovitz of Tel Aviv University, ischaemic strokes. But this has never been Hebei geo University, in Shijiazhuang. It is also speaks to the question of interspecific definitely proved. 146,000 years old and was originally interbreeding. Even supporters of the re­ Ischaemic strokes are a consequence of badged as an archaic form of Homo sapiens. cent­African­origin theory recognise that a vessel getting blocked. This stops blood But Ni Xijun and Ji Qiang, who work at the there was, in addition, an earlier “leakage” flowing to the part of the brain distal tothe university, disagree. As they report in the of Homo sapiens from north­east Africa in­ blockage, which then dies. The virtual Innovation, the cranium would indeed to the Levant. Dr Hershkovitz and his col­ trials showed that the risk of an ischaemic have contained a brain similar in size to a leagues have been examining fossils of rel­ stroke did indeed rise if a flow­diverter was modern human’s, but the fossil is too large evant antiquity—120,000­140,000 years— fitted near an arterial fork. It also predicted to be sapiens and has molars and eye sock­ collected from Nesher Ramla, a site in Isra­ that patients with higher than normal ets which dwarf those of people today. Dr el. These, they found, have sapiens­like jaw blood pressure were at even greater risk of Ni and Dr Ji also realised that it is too long bones, Neanderthal­like molars and crania such fork­related strokes—a finding that and low to be sapiens. It lacks the round­ similar to those of Homo erectus. This sug­ had not (and still has not yet) been shown ness of a modern human cranium. gests to them that they are the product of in the real world. This is good news for supporters of the miscegenation between all three. recent­African­origin theory, which holds That so much interbreeding went on Trial offer that most non­African human beings alive between groups of people who had evolved Though it is hard to imagine virtual trials today are descendants of a small number separately for hundreds of thousands of of this sort completely replacing real ones, of migrants who crossed to Asia from the years is intriguing. Besides the imprint of they could certainly reduce their number Horn of Africa about 60,000 years ago, Denisovan genes in modern Asians, it is al­ by suggesting in advance which avenues meaning that any non­African human fos­ so known that modern Europeans bear are worth exploring. They might also re­ sil from before that date is probably of an­ traces of Neanderthals and that some mod­ duce the need for animal trials—and might other species descended from earlier, non­ ern Africans similarly bear the imprint of a indeed be more effective than these if they sapiens departures from Africa. “ghost” hominid for which no fossil evi­ proved better models of human physiology The question was, which earlier species dence has yet been found. The ancestry of than the laboratory mice now popular for did the Harbin fossil represent? By com­ Homo sapiens, it seems, is less a family tree the purpose. paring it with known archaic humans, in­ than a worldwide web. n Virtual trials bring other advantages, too. One is that the same procedure can be tested over and over again in the same “pa­ tient”, but with different variables. The ob­ servation about blood pressure which emerged from Dr Frangi’s work was made this way. And procedures that would be hard to get past an ethics committee if pro­ posed for trial on people can be tested first in a computer, so that only those reckoned most likely to work will need to undergo ethical scrutiny. Preliminary virtual trials of this sort would also reduce the cost of real­world trials, which clock in at around $40,000 per patient. Regulators would clearly need persuading that virtual tests were reliable enough to yield appropriate data, but suc­ cessful “hindcasting” of the sort Dr Frangi has just demonstrated will presumably help that happen. n Homo longi, the man from Harbin

012 70 Books & arts The Economist July 3rd 2021

→ Also in this section 71 A novel of modern life 72 Stanford’s origin story 72 The future of war 73 Johnson: Check your privilege

Exploration and conquest diseases on island communities; and the transformation of the Pacific Ocean into an The ocean within arena for global conflict. After the second world war, the atolls were used as sites for nuclear tests. Today some island nations are acutely vulnerable to climate change and rising sea levels, wider forces once again intruding roughly on Pacific lives. From a world­historical No man is an island. Nor are islands themselves, as a history of the Pacific shows perspective, then, the Pacific is much less n 1686 william dampier, an English pi­ remote than outsiders make it out to be. Irate with an unlikely literary flair and an Voyagers: The Settlement of the Pacific. When the story of this watery crucible appetite for scientific and human observa­ By Nicholas Thomas. Basic Books; 224 is told, modern island thinkers under­ tion, anchored the Cygnet off the coast of pages; $25. Apollo; £18.99 standably tire of the prominence often giv­ Guam, an island in what is now known as en to Cook and other Europeans. But as the Micronesia region of the western Pacif­ way between the European discovery of Nicholas Thomas, an Australian historian ic Ocean. He was profoundly impressed by Guam, 500 years ago this year, by Ferdi­ and anthropologist at the University of the Chamorro people he encountered nand Magellan, during the Portuguese ex­ Cambridge, highlights in his concise new there, in particular by their voyaging ca­ plorer’s circumnavigation of the world, book, some of the questions that Cook and noes, which were unlike any craft he knew. and the extraordinary Pacific voyages of his companions asked remain pertinent, “The Natives”, he wrote in his account Captain James Cook between 1768 and 1780. for islanders above all. Who were these ex­ of the visit, “are very ingenious beyond any Magellan’s stumbling upon Guam as a traordinary people who first reached people, in making Boats, or Proes”, now trans­ocean way­station between conti­ specks of land across an ocean that covers a known as proas. “These are built sharp at nents in effect launched the global age. third of the Earth? Where did they come both ends; the bottom is of one piece…very On board Cook’s cruises through the from? A new inquiry might be added to neatly dug, and left of a good substance.” vast region of scattered atolls, archipela­ those old ones: where, in a figurative Dampier went on to describe “the little goes and “high” islands, today called Ocea­ sense, are Pacific islanders now heading? boat”, that is, the vessel’s outrigger, meant nia, were some of Europe’s finest natural “to keep the great Boat upright from over­ philosophers and artists, eagerly recording Into the unknown setting”. These twin­hulled vessels in everything they saw or experienced. But From a surprisingly early date, Mr Thomas effect reversed direction to pass through Cook’s mission was also an imperialising argues, islanders themselves have collabo­ the eye of the wind—unlike any European one. His voyages were way­stations of a rated with outsiders in the search for an­ or American craft. They were also su­ kind, towards Oceania’s formal colonisa­ swers. Tupaia, a navigator and priest from premely swift. “I do believe”, Dampier tion; the enslavement and kidnapping of the Society Islands (today part of French concluded of the islanders, “they sail the islanders for work elsewhere; the plunder­ Polynesia), seized the chance to join Cook best of any Boats in the World.” ing of natural resources, from whaling to on his departure from Tahiti. A chart Tu­ Dampier’s voyage came roughly mid­ mining; the ravaging effects of imported paia produced has become a symbol of

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Books & arts 71

cross­cultural encounter in the Pacific. As well as navigation, he shared knowledge of New British fiction Polynesian customs and history. He acted Home sweet home as a go­between in Cook’s first meetings with the Maori of New Zealand, whose tat­ toos were similar to those of the Polyne­ sians of Tahiti. They welcomed him as a to- hunga, or learned man, and conversed with Three Rooms. By Jo Hamya. Houghton that she has come far—“you are a wom­ him in a shared tongue. Had Tupaia sur­ Mifflin Harcourt; 208 pages; $25. Jonathan an, you are brown, you have made it vived the journey to England rather than Cape; £12.99 here”—yet despite her efforts to fit in, dying in Batavia (modern Jakarta), he she feels like an outsider. might have shared much more. irginia woolf reckoned that a She doesn’t fare much better when The quest for origins has been compli­ Vwoman needed money and a room of she swaps Oxford for London and acade­ cated by the size of the Pacific region, and her own if she were to write fiction. The mia for a “real­world job”. Once again she environments that are not often conducive nameless female narrator of Jo Hamya’s has no permanent work or fixed abode, to preserving the archaeological record. debut novel aspires to more living space, just a stranger’s sofa and a short­term gig The earliest voyaging craft lacked iron fas­ but for more prosaic reasons: the “end as a copy editor on a society magazine. tenings, and no traces of them survive. Yet goal I wanted, through any job necessary, She finds herself sidelined by colleagues, the author highlights a dizzying burst of was to be able to afford a flat, not just a scorned by her flatmate and increasingly new research that draws on advanced ge­ room, and then to settle in it and invite anxious about her dwindling resources netics, linguistics and, not least, a revival friends to dinner”.Over a fraught year and vanishing prospects. When her of voyaging itself by indigenous naviga­ involving precarious employment, low contract is not renewed, and she outstays tors. Some lineaments of the past are now wages and rented digs, she becomes her welcome as a lodger, she moves into incontrovertible. Whereas the ancestors of painfully aware that her modest dream her third room—in her parents’ home the Chamorro people settled western might be unattainable. outside the capital. Now she feels defeat­ Micronesia from the Philippines, today’s The story begins in autumn 2018, ed, but lowering her expectations and Polynesians are descended from the Lapita when the narrator arrives in Oxford to re­evaluating her plans may be her only people, named after their distinctive pot­ start a nine­month contract as a post­ chance to advance. tery. The Lapita moved through archipelag­ doctoral research assistant. She moves “Three Rooms” exhibits some of the ic South­East Asia from Taiwan and, a little into a “borrowed room” in a university­ excesses typical of debuts. The narrator’s over 3,000 years ago, launched into the owned house and spends her days work­ reflections can border on navel­gazing; Pacific from the easternmost tip of what is ing and wandering the city. She knows her fascination with a glamorous Oxford today Papua New Guinea. student becomes tiresome. Nevertheless, These could not have been accidental the novel evolves into an intelligent, voyages, made, for example, by coastal original examination of privilege and fishermen blown offshore. The craft set­ belonging in 21st­century England. Its ting off for new lands must have carried account of thwarted progress proves women, yams for cultivation and the pan­ absorbing, enriched as it is by shrewd danus tree for making rope and sails, plus observations and insightful meditations dogs, pigs and chickens. What is more, ves­ on the trials of modern life and the state sels sailed by the same peoples plied back of the nation. in the opposite direction too—not least, And the narrator’s candour is refresh­ the sweet potato, native to South America, ing. Acquaintances highlight the ironies was brought westward across the Pacific. of ambitions like hers, as when her flat­ Modern islanders have built traditional mate asks her: “Don’t you think it’s weird sailing craft and shown how it might be that you spent a year giving yourself to done (see picture on previous page). Es­ the place that started the careers of peo­ chewing compasses, like their forebears ple that openly disdain you, and now they use the stars, clouds, drifting sea­ you’ve gone to work for a publication weed, the flights of birds and even the that exalts them?” This is a nuanced smell of the air and ocean as navigational portrait of a woman’s search for stability tools, overlaid by mental maps that were and an adult identity in an obstacle­ passed down the generations. In his book So near, and yet sofa strewn world. “We, the Navigators” the late David Lewis, a doctor and sailor from New Zealand, recounted how local navigators rested lennium ago, into central and eastern Poly­ which a view of the island states as minus­ their testicles on the hull to gauge the pat­ nesia. Very little long­distance settlement cule and impoverished is replaced with tern of the swells. Such modern seafarers seems to have taken place in between. something broader, a cosmopolitan char­ have mirrored the astounding voyages of Since population pressures do not appear acter defined by the vast sea. Capturing their ancestors, including between to have been a major push factor, the moti­ this gathering pride, the late Fijian­Tongan Hawaii, Tahiti and New Zealand, making vation of the settlers remains one of the author Epeli Hau’ofa invoked “the ocean in their landfalls with uncanny accuracy. great enigmas of history. Perhaps the foun­ us”. Its waters are a fluid metaphor for sep­ Other answers, however, remain tanta­ ders of new communities gained great ma- aration, loss and grief for all those voyagers lisingly out of reach. In the longue durée of na, or spiritual power, from launching out who never returned. Water is also central human history, Mr Thomas writes, Pacific into the unknown, while their descen­ to Oceania’s myths of origin and return­ settlers “expanded their range almost sud­ dants secured high status. ing—and to both a new sense of environ­ denly”, in two rapid waves. The first was to The revival in voyaging is of a piece with mental danger and a revived desire among western Polynesia, and the second, a mil­ an awakened sense of Pacific identity, in Pacific islanders to connect. n

012 72 Books & arts The Economist July 3rd 2021

Memory and mourning the age of 14. His curiosity extended to the The future of war birds he shot and stuffed; Native American In the name of mortars and pestles that workers dug up on Computer says go the Stanford estate in Palo Alto; toy boats the son and carriages; weapons and armour and battlefield relics. The Tiffany Company gave him a case of paste replicas of the PALO ALTO Koh­i­Noor and other famous diamonds. An exhibition at Stanford explores its Part shrine, part eccentric display, the startling origin story cabinet is a powerful embodiment of the I, Warbot. By Kenneth Payne. Oxford he world might look different had a acute grief of Jane Stanford, Leland junior’s University Press; 336 pages; $29.95. Twealthy teenager not died of typhoid mother. She was determined to immortal­ Hurst; £20 fever in Florence in 1884. An avid collector ise her son by founding not just a universi­ of curios, Leland Stanford junior was15 and ty but also what was then the world’s larg­ he un’s Panel of Experts on Libya rarely on his second European tour when tragedy est private museum, originally to house Tgrabs the headlines. But its valedictory struck, depriving his parents of their only his miscellany. After his death, Leland report in March caused a furore. It noted child. To honour him, a year later they Stanford senior reportedly said that “the that in a battle around Tripoli last year, Lib­ founded what would become one of the children of California will be my children.” ya’s government had “hunted down and world’s best universities. Without Leland In collaboration with Stanford stu­ remotely engaged” the enemy with Stanford Junior University in Palo Alto, dents, Mr Dion picked 700 objects from the drones—and not just any drones. The Kar­ California, there might be no Silicon Val­ family’s hoard, out of some 6,000 that sur­ gu­2 was programmed to attack “without ley, nor the revolutions it has fostered in vived the two earthquakes to strike the mu­ requiring data connectivity between the work and life, observes Mark Dion, an art­ seum in the 20th century. He balances this operator and the munition”. The implica­ ist commissioned to commemorate this quirky abundance with a roomful of items tion was that it could pick its own targets. dramatic sequence of events. A single that allude to the sources of the Stanford Was this a true autonomous weapon, or death helped beget a whole new age. fortune. They include a broken shovel and just a clever missile? In June the Turkish Mr Dion is known for probing the ways a dynamite plunger; the “Golden Spike” manufacturer insisted that, contrary to its natural and human history are presented that symbolically united the two halves of own marketing, for now the drone re­ in institutions. His installation at the Can­ the transcontinental railroad, constructed quired a human to push the button. This tor Arts Centre at Stanford is a Wunderkam- by Chinese workers; and pay slips from la­ sort of technology is at the heart of “I, War­ mer stuffed with objects that illustrate the bourers on the Palo Alto estate and horse­ bot” by Kenneth Payne, a thought­provok­ university’s origin story. The centrepiece is breeding farm. ing reflection on how artificial intelligence a huge Victorian “mourning cabinet” con­ The room is a reminder that, before he (ai) will change conflict. taining part of Leland junior’s childhood became a railroad baron, the elder Leland In some ways, the story is familiar. It in­ collection, complete with a portrait of the Stanford made his money not in gold, but volves the entwined histories of comput­ lost boy. But the exhibition, called “The by selling the tools that goldminers used— ing and warfare; the recent evolution of Melancholy Museum” and now re­opened just as some of today’s tech tycoons made new, powerful forms of aimodelled on the after a covid­induced hiatus, also tells oth­ their billions not in glitzy goods but inter­ neurons of the brain rather than the logic er tales—about the Gold Rush, the Gilded net routers and databases. The objects are of the mind; and the ensuing possibilities Age and the labour that underpinned the mute; the installation is an artwork, says for weapons to see what is around them— Stanfords’ vast wealth. Mr Dion, not a lecture. But it spurs the visi­ and strike with superhuman speed and The young, doomed Stanford enjoyed tor to ask more questions—as if Stanford’s precision. Mr Payne, an academic at King’s all the privileges of the very rich, and used history, like all history, were an ornate cab­ College London, is especially bullish on them to fill a private museum at the family inet with compartments begging to be the potential of swarms, “a menagerie of mansion in San Francisco that he started at opened, revealing a more nuanced truth.n specialist robots” that can concentrate to attack and melt away just as quickly. “The tactical implications are pro­ found,” he predicts. The offence will dom­ inate. Defenders will have to rely on decep­ tion, generating clouds of decoy targets, rather than on protections like armour and fortification. Martial virtues such as cour­ age and leadership will give way to techni­ cal competence. Dividing armed forces in­ to services optimised for land, air and sea may look increasingly strange in a world of machines that can range across them. Above all, though, “I, Warbot” is a re­ minder that war is about more than tactics. It is about choosing which battles to fight, how to knit them into a successful cam­ paign and how to connect military victo­ ries to political aims—in short, war is about strategy. And soldiery and strategy are fundamentally different. Computer programs can already defeat human pilots in simulated dogfights. But could they Everything that dies someday comes back come up with the bold, swift and visionary

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Books & arts 73

Johnson Check your privilege

In discussions of group differences and grievances, nuance is vital f you set out to design a drearily pre­ be so divisive is that its meaning has porary bugbear, consider “toxic mascu­ Idictable identity­politics ding­dong in shifted over time. Its first use was to de­ linity”. To those who encounter this in a laboratory, you could do little better scribe special exemptions from religious passing, it may appear to mean some­ than the one that broke out in Britain on law, given to very few. It was then extend­ thing like “all masculinity is toxic”. This June 22nd. A parliamentary committee ed to similar non­ecclesiastical privileges, sounds like a counsel of despair, and released a report into underperforming and later to the general condition of being naturally upsets plenty of men and boys. working­class white pupils. It was long at the top of the socioeconomic pile, as in For some feminists and others, and in places thoughtful, but one seven­ phrases such as “bastions of privilege”. though, the expression is really meant to paragraph section hogged all the atten­ The entry for the word in the Oxford Eng­ highlight the influence of a certain, tion after it was released. lish Dictionary includes only senses in pernicious type of masculinity, in which That bit of the introduction fretted which “privileges” accrue to a minority. men and boys compete to be dominant, that the use of the phrase “white privi­ The Economist’s style guide, following this and put each other down as well as keep­ lege” may harm poor white youngsters logic, says the word “underprivileged” is ing women in their supposed place. who, by definition, are nearer the bottom an absurdity, as it is not normal or stan­ “Toxic masculinity” in its best sense thus of the socioeconomic pyramid than the dard to be privileged. points to the availability of other, more top. It argued that the term may lead to In recent years, however, the word has expansive and positive kinds. As com­ divisions among students and distract been widely used to refer to the advantag­ monly understood, it is just another them from the real causes of their hard­ es enjoyed by the white majority in coun­ blunt blast of identity politics. ships. The appendices to the report tries such as Britain and America. In the The problem with these terms is their reveal that four mps, all from the opposi­ raging culture wars, “white privilege” is compression. They are signposts rather tion Labour Party, disagreed with this now among the many phrases lobbed like than arguments, only making sense in characterisation of “white privilege”. The online grenades between opposing camps. the context of more elaborate reasoning. other six, all from the ruling Conserva­ Since the combatants cannot agree on Those who use them often seem to hope tive Party, approved of it. what it means, it is not surprising that that the catchphrases invoke all the As is often the case, the two sides of there is no consensus on whether it exists nuances of the underlying concepts. In this debate seem to mean very different and what should be done about it. the vituperative, tweet­length exchanges things by this concise but explosive It is not alone. To take another contem­ that now pass for political debate, that is term. Sensible folk who give credence to usually wishful thinking. the idea of “white privilege” argue that, Good style requires omitting needless whatever their other problems, white words. But talking about big demograph­ people do not face the same race­based ic groups warrants patient, careful lan­ disadvantages as ethnic minorities, from guage, even at the expense of zingers. the minor (a shopkeeper training a wary That may involve statistical caution, eye on them) to the more serious (teach­ signalled with “on average” and the like; ers reflexively judging them to be less after all, variation within groups (white capable than they really are). But some people, men) is often greater than be­ sceptics of “white privilege” think it tween them. That fact may not be head­ implies that every white person is privi­ line­friendly, but it bears repeating in leged in an overall way—or even that, every discussion of grievances and dif­ merely by existing, white people are ference. If you think a concept like white complicit in the discrimination suffered privilege has some validity, best to ex­ by minorities. For some who interpret it plain carefully what you mean by it, and this way, the concept is discredited by what you don’t. If you do that, you might the existence of poor white people. find that you no longer need those com­ One reason the idea of “privilege” may bustible buzzwords after all.

attacks that let Napoleon Bonaparte knock probabilities. That is fundamentally differ­ geopolitical ramifications. Consider the out one European army after another? ent from “transformational creativity”, case of B­59, a Soviet submarine pounded Algorithms can certainly outwit oppo­ which entails the ability to consider a pro­ by American depth­charges during the Cu­ nents in games that blend skill, chance and blem in a wholly new way, and requires ban missile crisis of 1962. The frazzled cap­ psychology. In 2017 Libratus, a computer playfulness, imagination and a sense of tain ordered the use of a nuclear­tipped program, saw off four poker stars. aican al­ meaning. All that may depend on emotion, torpedo. Conscious of the stakes, Vasily so innovate: in 2016 AlphaGo, another pro­ and thus on parts of human biology alien Arkhipov, the second­in­command, re­ gram, thrashed a world champion of Go, an to computers. “ai is a statistical processor fused to authorise the launch. ancient Chinese board­game, with moves par excellence”; but in essence it remains Would a computer have done so? “A that dazzled onlookers. “a wonderfully sophisticated abacus”. warbot is likely to be more accurate, pro­ But, argues Mr Payne, this is a simula­ A proficient soldier, the warbot may portionate and discriminate” than hu­ crum of genius, not the real thing. These thus be a limited general. The problem is mans, says Mr Payne. The risk is that “a gizmos exhibit “exploratory creativity”— that the line between tactics and strategy machine is undeterred by the sobering fear essentially a brute­force calculation of can blur. Battlefield decisions can have of things getting out of hand.” n

012 74 Tenders

Courses

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012 Economic & financial indicators The Economist July 3rd 2021 75

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units % change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change latest quarter* 2021† latest 2021† % % of GDP, 2021† % of GDP, 2021† latest,% year ago, bp Jun 30th on year ago United States 0.4 Q1 6.4 6.0 5.0 May 3.1 5.8 May -3.0 -13.5 1.4 79.0 - China 18.3 Q1 2.4 8.5 1.3 May 1.6 5.0 May‡§ 2.8 -4.7 2.9 §§ 36.0 6.46 9.4 Japan -1.6 Q1 -3.9 2.2 -0.1 May -0.2 3.0 May 3.5 -8.9 nil -8.0 111 -2.8 Britain -6.1 Q1 -6.2 5.8 2.1 May 3.0 4.7 Mar†† -4.5 -11.5 0.8 58.0 0.72 12.5 Canada 0.3 Q1 5.6 5.4 3.6 May 2.2 8.2 May -2.0 -9.0 1.4 86.0 1.24 9.7 Euro area -1.3 Q1 -1.3 4.3 1.9 Jun 1.7 8.0 Apr 3.2 -6.6 -0.2 25.0 0.84 6.0 Austria -5.5 Q1 -12.6 3.4 2.7 Jun 2.2 5.6 Apr 3.0 -7.6 nil 23.0 0.84 6.0 Belgium -0.5 Q1 4.5 4.3 1.6 Jun 1.5 5.3 Apr -0.7 -6.6 0.1 25.0 0.84 6.0 France 1.2 Q1 -0.4 5.5 1.5 Jun 1.4 7.3 Apr -1.7 -8.7 0.2 28.0 0.84 6.0 Germany -3.1 Q1 -7.0 3.5 2.3 Jun 2.5 4.4 Apr 6.8 -3.6 -0.2 25.0 0.84 6.0 Greece -1.4 Q1 18.9 5.4 0.1 May nil 15.8 Dec -3.7 -5.8 0.8 -37.0 0.84 Italy -0.8 Q1 0.6 4.6 1.3 Jun 1.3 10.7 Apr 3.2 -11.8 0.8 -52.0 0.84 Netherlands -2.4 Q1 -3.1 3.4 2.1 May 2.2 3.3 May 11.0 -1.9 -0.2 17.0 0.84 Spain -4.2 Q1 -1.7 5.9 2.7 Jun 1.5 15.4 Apr 1.3 -8.7 0.5 6.0 0.84 Czech Republic -2.6 Q1 -1.4 3.6 2.9 May 2.6 3.4 Apr‡ 2.6 -5.6 1.8 108 21.5 1 Denmark -0.9 Q1 -3.9 3.0 1.7 May 0.7 4.0 May 7.4 -1.3 0.1 40.0 6.27 Norway -1.4 Q1 -2.5 2.6 2.7 May 2.9 4.9 Apr‡‡ 2.5 -1.0 1.4 77.0 8.61 12.1 Poland -1.3 Q1 4.5 4.6 4.4 Jun 4.1 6.1 May§ 2.2 -6.9 1.6 26.0 3.81 3.9 Russia -0.7 Q1 na 3.2 6.0 May 5.5 4.9 May§ 3.7 -1.7 7.2 115 73.0 -2.5 Sweden -0.1 Q1 3.4 3.6 1.8 May 1.8 9.8 May§ 4.3 -2.3 0.3 40.0 8.55 9.0 Switzerland -0.5 Q1 -2.0 3.0 0.6 May 0.3 3.0 May 7.4 -4.0 -0.2 24.0 0.92 3 Turkey 7.0 Q1 na 3.9 16.6 May 14.5 12.9 Apr§ -2.2 -2.8 16.7 523 8.69 2 Australia 1.1 Q1 7.3 4.4 1.1 Q1 2.1 5.1 May 1.6 -5.9 1.5 62.0 1.33 0 Hong Kong 7.9 Q1 23.5 4.9 0.9 May 1.6 6.0 May‡‡ 3.6 -4.1 1.2 56.0 7.77 3 India 1.6 Q1 6.0 10.4 6.3 May 5.2 9.2 Jun -1.0 -7.2 6.0 16.0 74.3 6 Indonesia -0.7 Q1 na 3.9 1.7 May 2.4 6.3 Q1§ -0.1 -5.7 6.5 -64.0 14,500 5 Malaysia -0.5 Q1 na 4.4 4.4 May 2.4 4.6 Apr§ 4.7 -5.9 3.3 23.0 4.15 3.4 Pakistan 4.7 2021** na 3.8 10.9 May 9.0 5.8 2018 -2.0 -7.1 9.9 ††† 120 158 6.5 Philippines -4.2 Q1 1.2 5.1 4.5 May 4.2 8.7 Q2§ -1.1 -7.6 4.0 122 48.8 2.1 Singapore 1.3 Q1 13.1 4.6 2.4 May 1.8 2.9 Q1 17.8 -4.4 1.6 68.0 1.34 4.5 South Korea 1.9 Q1 7.1 3.8 2.6 May 2.0 4.0 May§ 4.6 -3.2 2.1 72.0 1,126 6.8 Taiwan 8.9 Q1 12.8 6.0 2.5 May 1.6 3.7 Apr 15.5 -0.6 0.4 -3.0 27.9 5.9 Thailand -2.6 Q1 0.7 2.9 2.4 May 2.1 1.5 Dec§ 3.7 -6.5 1.5 44.0 32.0 -3.6 Argentina 2.5 Q1 11.0 6.2 48.8 May 47.3 10.2 Q1§ 1.9 -6.0 na na 95.7 -26.4 Brazil 1.0 Q1 4.9 4.8 8.1 May 6.8 14.7 Apr§‡‡ -0.2 -7.3 9.1 242 5.02 9.4 Chile 0.3 Q1 13.4 6.7 3.6 May 3.4 10.0 May§‡‡ -0.2 -7.1 4.5 212 728 12.7 Colombia 2.0 Q1 11.9 6.0 3.3 May 3.0 15.6 May§ -3.4 -8.9 7.1 137 3,734 0.1 Mexico -3.6 Q1 3.1 5.9 5.9 May 4.5 4.1 May 1.4 -2.8 7.0 113 19.9 16.1 Peru 3.8 Q1 8.3 10.1 2.5 May 2.9 9.7 May§ -0.2 -5.8 5.3 155 3.83 -7.6 Egypt 2.9 Q1 na 3.3 4.8 May 5.2 7.4 Q1§ -3.1 -8.1 na na 15.7 2.9 Israel -1.1 Q1 -6.2 4.2 1.5 May 1.5 5.5 May 3.8 -7.7 1.1 48.0 3.26 6.1 Saudi Arabia -4.1 2020 na 2.9 5.7 May 2.4 6.5 Q1 2.8 -2.6 na na 3.75 nil South Africa -3.2 Q1 4.6 3.0 5.2 May 4.0 32.6 Q1§ 1.5 -9.4 8.9 -36.0 14.3 21.7 Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Markets Commodities % change on: % change on: The Economist commodity-price index Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st % change on In local currency Jun 30th week 2020 Jun 30th week 2020 2015=100 Jun 22nd Jun 29th* month year United States S&P 500 4,297.5 1.3 14.4 Pakistan KSE 47,356.0 -1.1 8.2 Dollar Index United States NAScomp 14,504.0 1.6 12.5 Singapore STI 3,130.5 0.4 10.1 All Items 181.8 181.9 -3.7 70.4 China Shanghai Comp 3,591.2 0.7 3.4 South Korea KOSPI 3,296.7 0.6 14.7 Food 129.0 128.9 -6.8 43.7 China Shenzhen Comp 2,466.2 1.6 5.9 Taiwan TWI 17,755.5 2.4 20.5 Industrials Japan Nikkei 225 28,791.5 -0.3 4.9 Thailand SET 1,587.8 -0.3 9.6 All 231.0 231.4 -2.0 88.7 Japan Topix 1,943.6 -0.3 7.7 Argentina MERV 62,372.0 -5.6 21.8 Non-food agriculturals 151.0 151.7 -8.5 68.3 Britain FTSE 100 7,037.5 -0.5 8.9 Brazil BVSP 126,801.7 -1.3 6.5 Metals 254.8 255.1 -0.7 92.8 Canada Mexico IPC 50,289.8 0.2 14.1 S&P TSX 20,165.6 nil 15.7 Sterling Index Euro area Egypt EGX 30 10,256.6 -0.2 -5.4 EURO STOXX 50 4,064.3 -0.3 14.4 All items 199.4 200.7 -1.3 52.2 France CAC 40 6,507.8 -0.7 17.2 Israel TA-125 1,764.6 -0.2 12.5 Germany DAX* 15,531.0 0.5 13.2 Saudi Arabia Tadawul 10,984.2 0.8 26.4 Euro Index Italy FTSE/MIB 25,102.0 0.1 12.9 South Africa JSE AS 66,248.8 0.7 11.5 All items 169.4 169.5 -0.9 60.8 Netherlands AEX 729.5 0.6 16.8 World, dev'd MSCI 3,017.2 0.6 12.2 Gold Spain IBEX 35 8,821.2 -1.5 9.3 Emerging markets MSCI 1,374.6 1.0 6.5 $ per oz 1,780.8 1,758.5 -7.4 -1.4 Poland WIG 66,067.2 -1.0 15.9 Brent Russia RTS, $ terms 1,653.8 -0.7 19.2 $ per barrel 74.9 75.0 6.6 81.9 Switzerland SMI 11,942.7 0.4 11.6 US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries Sources: Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Refinitiv Datastream; Turkey BIST 1,356.3 -3.3 -8.2 Dec 31st Fastmarkets; FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool Australia All Ord. 7,585.0 0.4 10.7 Basis points latest 2020 Services; Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional. Hong Kong Hang Seng 28,828.0 nil 5.9 Investment grade 111 136 India BSE 52,482.7 0.3 9.9 High-yield 336 429 Indonesia IDX 5,985.5 -0.8 0.1 Sources: Refinitiv Datastream; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income For more countries and additional data, visit Malaysia KLSE 1,532.6 -2.1 -5.8 Research. *Total return index. Economist.com/indicators

012 76 Graphic detail Pandemic lifestyles The Economist July 3rd 2021

The Economist normalcy index*, to June 24th 2021, pre-pandemic level=100 120 WHO declares Second lockdown Delta-variant cases Chinese New Year pandemic begins in Britain surge in India 110 National lockdown Third lockdown begins to lift in India begins in Britain Pre-pandemic level 100

90

80 China 7 US 7 EU† 71 70 World‡ 66 Britain 62 60

50 India 47 40

30

20

10 Mar 2020 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Sports attendance Cinema Flights Road traffic Public transport Office use Retail Time not at home 2020 2021 2020 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021

91 95 73 80 80

23 29 *14-day moving average †Population-weighted average 17 of 16 countries ‡Population-weighted average of 50 countries Back to the future weekly data for 50 countries, which ac­ count for 76% of the world’s population and 90% of its gdp. We combine them by measuring the change in each factor from its pre­covid level; averaging the changes in each category; and then averaging the grouped results together. Our global figure Our new normalcy index shows that lifestyles are only halfway back weights each country by its population. to pre-pandemic norms We calculate the index relative to a pre­ n 1920 warren harding won America’s 2019. But in other places, even with the end covid norm of 100. When the pandemic Ipresidency promising a “return to nor­ in sight, normalcy remains a long way off. was declared in March 2020, China had al­ malcy”, following the first world war and And differences in vaccination rates do not ready locked down, bringing the index the flu pandemic in 1918­20. A century on, fully explain why some countries enjoy down to 80. As the disease spread, the in­ his goal sounds more appealing than ever. more of it than others. dex reached a low of 35. Since last July it has It also looks frustratingly hard to achieve. Covid­19 has changed life in too many oscillated around 60. It now sits at 66, im­ In theory, vaccines should end the co­ ways to count. Yet any effort to assess how plying that only half of the disruption vid­19 pandemic. Already, one­third of much its impact has receded requires a caused by covid­19 has been reversed. people aged 12 and over have at least one measure of what normalcy is. We have thus Most Western countries are close to this shot. Yet many places are sliding back­ devised a normalcy index, tracking three average. America is at 73, the eu 71, Austra­ wards. Australia, Bangladesh and Thailand types of activity. The first is travel, split be­ lia 70 and Britain 62. Elsewhere, the range have all imposed new restrictions. Even tween roads, flights and public transport. is wider. Both Hong Kong and New Zea­ Chile, where 77% of over­12s have a vaccine Next comes leisure time, divided among land, the leaders at 96 and 88, enjoy nearly dose, locked down its capital last month. hours spent outside of homes, cinema rev­ full normalcy. In contrast, since April Ma­ Such cases do not cast doubt on vac­ enues and attendance at sporting events. laysia’s value has fallen from 55 to 27. cines’ effectiveness. In countries like Isra­ The last is commercial activity, measured Of the eight activities in the index, three el, where most adults have two jabs from by footfall in shops and offices. were subject to legal orders that ground Pfizer, life now goes on much as it did in For each variable, we obtained daily or them to a halt last March: cinemas, sport­

012 The Economist July 3rd 2021 Graphic detail Pandemic lifestyles 77

ing events and flights. All three remain 70­ only weakly to indirect measures of un­ wise similar but less free countries. This 85% below the pre­covid baseline today. counted cases, such as the share of tests would make sense if people in such places Although many cinemas are now open, that are positive or changes in deaths from are unusually likely to trust their leaders, studios have begun selling content directly any cause. And although vaccines increase or if they feel more invested in fellow citi­ to streaming services (see International). normalcy, they do so only once they have zens’ well­being. And richer countries, Save for a film­going boom in China during had enough time to reduce deaths. Life re­ where lots of people can work from home, New Year festivities in February—when mains abnormal in most countries where are more abnormal than poorer ones. week­on­week revenues rose by 3,600%— covid­19 outbreaks took off before enough Our normalcy index does not track eco­ the industry has languished between 20% people could obtain full protection. nomic recovery closely. Some behaviour, and 40% of its takings from 2019. Normalcy is also influenced by factors such as air travel, is likely to recover even­ The picture for sport and air travel is a unrelated to the pandemic. In general, tually. Other variables, like cinema­going bit rosier. At sporting events, capacity lim­ Asian countries have been less normal or working from home, could signal an en­ its have kept crowds at around 20% of their than you would expect. Counterintuitive­ during change. We will update our index pre­covid baseline. Similarly, there are just ly, behaviour has changed more in places online every week to keep track of the 30% as many planes in the sky today as in with robust civil liberties than in other­ world’s path towards normalcy. n 2019, owing largely to travel bans and quar­ antine rules. However, America is an en­ couraging exception. With robust demand Normalcy index* v excess deaths and lockdown stringency, January 1st 2021=100 for domestic flights and mass vaccination 150 150 making attendance limits unnecessary, air Normalcy index Normalcy index travel and baseball stadiums there are at 125 125 70% and 90% of their levels from 2019. Although many governments have re­ 100 100 quired people to stay at home, such rules 75 75 are hard to enforce. Last April, even though Lockdown stringency half of the world’s population was subject 50 50 to such orders, the global average of time 25 25 spent outside homes fell by only 15%. Com­ Excess deaths pliance rates appear similarly low today: 0 0 around 14% of people are not allowed to 2020 2021 2020 2021 venture out, yet time not at home is just 5% below the baseline of 2019. The final variables in our index depend Normalcy index v vaccinations, February 1st-June 24th 2021 mostly on choices by individuals or firms. All have largely recovered, suggesting that Feb Jun No correlation Strong positive Weak positive Weak negative Strong negative people are clawing back as much normalcy as governments will allow. Public tran­ Normalcy index† pre-pandemic level=100 sport, which cities generally kept in ser­ Hong Kong vice, is now up to 80% of its pre­covid lev­ el. Driving is at 73%; visits to retail stores 90 are at 91%; and attendance at offices is at 80%. Because many office employees can Ukraine New Zealand China was able to ease restrictions work remotely, the shortfall in this catego­ Nigeria and allow normal behaviour to resume Pakistan before it began mass vaccination ry probably reflects telecommuting more 80 than unemployment. Egypt Mexico China The country­level values of our index Romania Poland France Israel UAE South Korea vary widely, from 16 in Peru in April 2020 to TurkeyCzech Re . ortu e Russia United States 97 in Vietnam the previous month. A few en paain 70 Saudi Arabia patterns explain most of the differences, Australia Austria Hungary Switzerland both between countries and over time. South Africa Denmark Italy Logically, places facing the worst out­ Colombia Indonesia Japan Norway Britain breaks tend to be the least normal. Holding Germany 60 Brazil N e nd Canada Thailand Peru other factors constant, a one­standard­de­ Ireland viation increase in a country’s official co­ Philippines Singapore vid­19 deaths during the preceding month Vietnam Chile 50 reduces normalcy by four points. Similar­ Argentina ly, tightening lockdown rules by a standard Britain’s normalcy index has moved deviation lowers normalcy by five points. Taiwan in lockstep with the progress of its vaccination programme However, it takes time for behaviour to A devastating wave of covid-1 40 reflect the true spread of covid­19. Normal­ India infections hit India just as its cy tracks official death tolls from the previ­ vaccination campaign began ous month—which could reflect infec­ tions from 60 days ago—much more close­ Malaysia 30 ly than current case counts. It is also linked 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Vaccinations per 100 people

Explore our interactive normalcy tracker at *Population-weighted average of 50 countries, representing 76% of global population †30-day moving average Sources: University of Oxford; economist.com/normalcytracker Box Office Mojo; Google; JHU CSSE; Our World in Data; TomTom; UN ICAO; sports websites; Transfermarkt; Wind; The Economist

012 78 Obituary Milkha Singh The Economist July 3rd 2021

Pakistan, and crowds of Muslim outsiders—not the gentle Mus­ lims he knew as neighbours—suddenly arrived in the village. They began killing, leaving the mutilated bodies for dogs, and ordered his family to convert to Islam or die. One night they came, with swords and axes, to slash his parents’ throats and hack his siblings to death. His father, dying, shouted: “Run, Milkha, run! Bhaag, Milkha, bhaag!” He raced for the forest, crying. There followed a time of scrapes, when he hopped trains as a refugee, shoeless and starving, and became a petty thief, running from the police. Eventually the army took him on. There he disco­ vered running of a new kind, with coaching, races over set lengths, and prizes. The first race he won rewarded him with nourishment, a daily glass of milk. The first track he saw, decked with flags, en­ chanted him. In his first cross­country (“What is cross­country?”) he got stomach cramps and sat down whenever they gripped him, but still came sixth out of 400 runners. Sixth was good; first was better. So began the hard, necessary work, six hours a day. He ran in fatigue time, when other jawans were doing chores, and at night, when they were playing cards. He laboured up steep hillsides and across loose sand to build his leg muscles, and honed his upper body with weights. He ran until he filled a bucket with his sweat, until he urinated blood or collapsed with exhaustion and had to go to the hospital. He took his body to the limit out of pride, and for India. His coaches and his doctors remonstrated every time, but it was no good. He would imagine a crowded stadium, the wild applause, his burst across the finish line, the Indian flag rising—and exhaust himself all over again. Iron discipline paid off. He took four golds at the Asian games, besides the gold in Cardiff, and won more than 70 of his 80 inter­ Running as religion national races. In 1956, at his first Olympics in Melbourne, he was eliminated in the heats but did not waste the trip. He asked the American gold medallist in the 400 metres, Charles Jenkins, to share his training schedule, and for the next four years a chit of pa­ per with Jenkins’s world­record time, 46.7 seconds, was propped beside his picture of Guru Nanak as the focus of his prayers. Milkha Singh, “The Flying Sikh”, died on June 18th, In 1960, at the Rome Olympics, his time was 45.6. It was an Indi­ aged 90 or 91 an national record but not, alas, the world record, because he did efore his best race, at the British Empire and Commonwealth not win that 400­metre sprint. Though he led for the first 200 me­ BGames in Cardiff in 1958, Milkha Singh was under far too much tres or so, he then slowed, glanced back, and could not regain his stress to sleep. That day he prayed, touched his forehead to the rhythm. Three runners passed him. It was Spence who, by 0.1 of a ground and promised to do his best; but the honour of India, he second, pipped him for the bronze. It was the worst day of his life, told God, was in His hands. This was, after all, the new India, inde­ excepting only that day when his parents had been killed. Even the pendent of Britain for only a decade, striving to win gold in games national record he had set then was electrically retimed to 45.73, where, as a part of empire, it had never done before. and in 1998 a policeman broke it. By then he had long retired from On the track for the 440­yard sprint, Malcolm Spence of South competition, unable ever to forgive himself for that lapse in Rome. Africa, the world­record holder, was the man he was watching. But He did, however, manage to forgive others. In 1960 he was in­ if he ran as he planned to, Spence was no danger. He shot from the vited to Lahore for a meeting that would pit him against Pakistan’s start as fast as possible, led in the final straight, thought Spence champion sprinter, Abdul Khaliq. At first, he refused to go. How was nowhere near but then, in a second, sensed him over his could he? His childhood home was there now, still soaked with shoulder. At the line, with six inches between them, Spence failed blood. It was Nehru who convinced him that there needed to be to pass him, and he won the gold. The stadium erupted. As the In­ friendship between the two new, raw nations, so he went. The mo­ dian national anthem was played and the tricolour ascended, it ment he crossed the border, to his surprise, he was welcomed with seemed that 100,000 Englishmen rose to their feet. The sister of flags and flowers. And when he won his race, the Pakistani prime Jawaharlal Nehru, the prime minister, hugged him afterwards, minister whispered to him, in Punjabi, that he had not run that telling him that he had made India the pride of the world. day; he had actually flown. “Pakistan bestows on you”, he said, Those Britishers who stood to salute him, however, knew al­ “the title of ‘The Flying Sikh’.” most nothing about him. To them he was just an exotic person, a He took it up joyfully, and so did his fans. It gave wings to his village boy with a Sikh top­knot who ran with his arms gracefully celebrity, which peaked in 2013 with a top­grossing Bollywood waving and usually went barefoot, though for international meet­ film of his life. In retrospect “The Flying Sikh” was perhaps his fa­ ings he wore shoes. They did not know that, for him, running was vourite honour, though he had also received the Padma Shri, In­ not a sport. It was everything, his religion, his beloved, life. dia’s fourth­highest for civilians. (He was scornful of more com­ As a child, a farmer’s son, he ran to escape the poverty of Go­ mon awards, like the Arjuna, that were handed out to almost any­ bindpura, in Punjab, and to get an education. The school was 10km one like prasad in a temple.) As an athlete, he had run for nothing away, across sands that burned so hot in summer that he and his more than his country and his countrymen’s applause. And, de­ friends would have to jump between cooling pads of grass. But at spite everything that had happened, he had two countries. Wher­ the age of 14 or 15 in the year of Partition, 1947, he ran to save his ve­ ever he ran, he said, both India and Pakistan ran with him. It was ry life. The state of Punjab was being split then between India and as if in Milkha Singh, for brief seconds, they found unity again. n

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