University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 8-1-2009 The Middle East Quartet of Mediators: Understanding Multiparty Mediation in the Middle East Peace Process Kris Arthur Bauman University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Bauman, Kris Arthur, "The Middle East Quartet of Mediators: Understanding Multiparty Mediation in the Middle East Peace Process" (2009). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 59. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/59 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTET OF MEDIATORS: UNDERSTANDING MULTIPARTY MEDIATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS __________ A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty and Dean of the Joseph Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver __________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy __________ by Kris Arthur Bauman August 2009 Advisor: Dr. Timothy Sisk Disclaimer The views expressed in this dissertation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US government or the Department of Defense. In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303, it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government. ii Author: Kris A. Bauman Title: THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTET OF MEDIATORS: UNDERSTANDING MULTIPARTY MEDIATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS Advisor: Dr. Timothy Sisk Degree Date: August 2009 ABSTRACT This dissertation seeks to answer the question: Under what conditions does multiparty mediation fail to move conflicting parties toward a comprehensive peace agreement? The object of study is the Middle East Quartet of Mediators from its formation in 2002 to the Annapolis Conference in November, 2007. Although some progress was made during this period, no formal peace agreement was reached and therefore, the ultimate objective of the Quartet was not attained. The study seeks both to deepen our theoretical understanding of multiparty mediation as well as identify specific leverage points that could lead toward resolution of the conflict in Palestine and Israel. The methodology employed is a qualitative investigation of the multiparty mediation efforts of the Quartet. It is based on an investigation of Quartet statements as well as a series of interviews of key Quartet participants and academic experts on the contemporary Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The ultimate aim is to make future mediation efforts more successful. Key Words: Multiparty Mediation, Quartet, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, conflict resolution, intractable conflict, peace processes. iii Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction to the Middle East Quartet and Multiparty Mediation……………….. …1 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Approach and Theoretical Framework 1.3 Terminology Definitions 1.4 Questions about Multiparty Mediation Failure 1.5 The Five Potential Precipitant Events 1.6 Methodology 1.7 Overview of the Study Chapter 2 The Quartet, Multiparty Mediation, & Conflict Resolution: Previous Research……..24 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Previous Research in Peacemaking, Negotiation, & Mediation 2.3 Previous Research on Multiparty Mediation 2.4 Previous Research in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process 2.5 US Foreign Policy, the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, & the Israel Lobby 2.6 Summary and Identification of the Research Gap Chapter 3 The Challenges of Competing Narratives…………………………………………….57 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The Concept of Narrative 3.3 The Israeli Narrative 3.4 The Arab & Palestinian Narratives 3.5 Contrasts in the Narratives 3.6 Major Events in the Peace Process, 1991-2000 3.7 The Narratives and the Nineties: Summary and Conclusions Chapter 4 A Glimmer of Hope for Multiparty Mediation: The Quartet before 2006…………..120 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The First Years of the Bush Administration, 2001-2002 4.3 In the Beginning: Quartet Formation 4.4 The Arab Peace Initiative, 2002 4.5 Quartet Acceptance 4.6 Quartet Behavior 4.7 The Death of Yasser Arafat (November 2004) iv 4.8 The Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza (Fall 2005) 4.9 The Incapacitation of Ariel Sharon (January 2006) Chapter 5 Lights Out: The Quartet after January 2006…...……………………………………178 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The Hamas Election Victory (January 2006) 5.3 The Mecca Agreement (February 2007) 5.4 The Result of the Quartet’s Non-response: The Hamas Takeover Chapter 6 Conclusions and Contingent Generalizations………………….…...……………….207 6.1 Summary of Key Findings 6.2 Coalition Theory 6.3 Negotiation Theory 6.4 Multiparty Mediation Theory 6.5 A New Model: Multiparty Mediation Effectiveness Estimate Epilogue Policy Recommendations……………...…………………………………………….226 Works Cited……………………………..…………………………………………..238 Appendices Appendix A: Strengths and Weaknesses of Multiparty Mediation…..….…250 Appendix B: Interview Questions……………………………………..…....251 Appendix C: Steenhausen’s BATMA…………………………………..…..253 Appendix D: Israel-PLO Mutual Recognition Letters……………………...254 Appendix E: Declaration of Principles…………………………………......256 Appendix F: Quartet Statements, 2002-2007…………………………….....265 v List of Tables Table 1.1 The Five Potential Precipitant Events………………………….…...……...16 Table 1.2 Quartet Key Personnel and Middle East Experts Interviewed….……….…19 Table 3.1 Population of Palestine by Ethnic Group, 1931-1946……………………..67 Table 3.2 Strengths of Multiparty Mediation…………………………………………88 Table 3.3 Major Events in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process, 1991-2002….…….91 Table 3.4 West Bank Areas of Administration and Security………………………..101 Table 4.1 Quartet Principals and Envoys by Year, 2002-2008…………….…….….162 Table 6.1 Quartet Members and Capabilities……………..………………………....209 Table 6.2 Key Variables…………………………………………………………......210 Table 6.3 Multiparty Mediation Effectiveness Estimate………………………….....221 Table 6.4 Multiparty Mediation Effectiveness Estimate and the Quartet……….......222 vi Chapter One Introduction to the Middle East Quartet and Multiparty Mediation 1.1 Introduction After six decades of continuous conflict and enormous human suffering, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute continues unabated. The latest open conflagration in Gaza from the end of December 2008 until the middle of January 2009 claimed over 1400 lives. The Middle East Quartet of Mediators, composed of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, and Russia, spent seven years attempting to resolve the conflict. Yet in spite of all the power, legitimacy, and money that such a group should offer, the Quartet failed to bring any kind of resolution to the conflict. This study seeks to answer a fundamental question: Under what conditions does multiparty mediation fail to move conflicting parties toward a comprehensive peace agreement ? Though the Israeli-Palestinian case warrants attention all on its own, the answer to this question has implications that reach far beyond the Middle East; for contained in the lessons of multiparty mediation failure, is the crucial wisdom that will enable future multiparty mediation success. 1 Multiparty mediation is part of the broader conflict resolution field of study. It is closely related to the fields of peace studies, international negotiation, peace- making, and international mediation. 1 Multiparty mediation has become a regular feature of peacemaking in the 21 st century. As Crocker, Hampson and Aall assert in Herding Cats , “The multiplication of mediators is less a matter of choice than a fact of life in today’s world” (1999, 666). Yet despite its omnipresent nature, multiparty mediation is a field that has received scant academic attention. In 1994, I. William Zartman wrote, Currently, no conceptual work addresses the vast area of multilateral negotiation. Although a few studies of negotiation concepts include a section on multilateral processes and many insightful empirical studies have been made of multilateral cases, an explicit conceptual treatment of the subject is lacking. (1994, xi) More than a decade has transpired since Zartman wrote those words, but multiparty mediation has remained on the fringes of academic inquiry. This is primarily due to its complexity in practice. It involves far too many variables to be captured in a nice two- by-two matrix. Yet its ubiquitous employment, combined with the gravity of the policy implications involved in its application, beg better understanding. 1 The interrelationships of these fields will be explored in the beginning of the next chapter. 2 The context for this study is Israel-Palestine, one of the most obdurate conflicts in modern history. It is but one case among the 122 currently captured in the Uppsala Conflict Database, 2 but it is a conflict that is sui generis in every sense of the phrase. Geographically (and religiously), the conflict encompasses the “Holy Land,” the birthplace of Judaism and Christianity, and the third most important site in Islam. The land is “much too promised,” as Aaron David Miller describes it: I figured historic Palestine was promised four times, at least, to its inhabitants: first by a Jewish, Christian, and Muslim God who offered an exclusive, even triumphal claim to the same land and its holy sites to those souls who were willing to follow; a second