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Energy Insights RBC Dominion Securities Inc. RBC Capital Markets, LLC Greg Pardy, CFA (Co-Head Scott Hanold (Analyst) Global Energy Research) (512) 708-6354; (416) 842-7848; [email protected] [email protected] Robert Kwan, CFA (Analyst) (604) 257-7611; [email protected] Michael Harvey, P.Eng. (Analyst) (403) 299-6998; [email protected] September 24, 2020 Energy Insights Oil Sands—Bounce Back Canada’s oil sands are demonstrating their resilience as production recovers from extensive shut-ins, curtailments and accelerated maintenance amid dreadful oil market conditions this past spring. An EQUITY RESEARCH intensified focus on ESG—and mostly E—is also manifesting itself across the board as energy producers set emissions objectives and undertake steps to reduce their GHG footprints. Acquisition & Disposition activity involving the selective exit of supermajors from the oil sands remains a wildcard—but could serve up bargains for Canada’s leading energy players. Key Points: • Stability Amid Chaos. The low-decline nature of oil sands production—which remains curtailment constrained—adds stability to Canada’s oil supply, which we expect to fall just 256,000 bbl/d (5%) year/year in 2020, largely rebounding in 2021. This contrasts with the US, where we peg entry-to-exit oil production will fall 2.0 million bbl/d (16%) in 2020, and not resume growth until second-half 2021. • Growth on Pause. Oil sands growth will almost certainly take a breather through 2021 pending improved oil market conditions, balance sheet deleveraging, adjustments to Alberta’s curtailment policy, and improved pipeline egress. Over the 2019-23 timeframe, we peg Canada’s oil sands production (two-thirds bitumen weighted) CAGR at just 2% (49,400 bbl/d per year)—reaching a plateau of 3.2 million bbl/d in 2023. Canada’s supply path mirrors this picture with a 2019-23 CAGR of only 0.5%, impacted by the West White Rose deferral and sagging streams elsewhere. • Curtailments—Time to Adjust Quotas? Alberta’s curtailment policy engineered a dramatic tightening in Canadian oil differentials across the complex with stable quotas of 3.81 million bbl/d since December 2019. Narrow WCS-Maya spreads have closed the crude-by-rail arbitrage to the US Gulf Coast—and at times have fallen below pipeline tolls of about US$8/bbl to the same destination. Curtailments may remain in place until the 270,000 bbl/d Line 3 Replacement—an intermediate egress bridge—reaches targeted completion in 2021. • Trans Mountain Expansion—Critical Linkage. The 590,000 bbl/d Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion is taking shape, and could be a game changer for producers given the off-shore market diversification it affords. The line is approximately 13% complete, with targeted completion in late 2022. • Keystone XL—Democratic Uncertainty. In our minds, the Alberta government’s US$1.1 billion preferred equity investment in Keystone XL (and up to US$4.2 billion loan guarantee) was a strategically sound move that facilitated construction on the 830,000 bbl/d line. A Democratic Presidential win on November 3 would create uncertainty for the line’s Presidential Permit—despite completion of the border crossing in Northern Montana. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). Disseminated: Sep 24, 2020 00:45ET; Produced: Sep 23, 2020 17:52ET All values in CAD unless otherwise noted. For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 5. Energy Insights Exhibit 1: Canada Oil Supply Outlook million bbl/d Forecast 5.5 Canada’s oil supply may 5.0 drop by nearly 260,000 bbl/d in 2020—but largely 4.5 rebounds in 2021. 4.0 Hebron 3.5 Western Canada 3.0 Conventional 2.5 2.0 Synthetic Crude Oil 1.5 East Coast 1.0 0.5 Non-Upgraded Bitumen 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Note: Western Canada Conventional includes condensate and pentanes, as outlined in Exhibit 2. Source: AER, CER, RBC Capital Markets estimates, Company reports Exhibit 2: Canada Oil Supply Outlook – Breakdown Millions of bbl/d 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2019-23E Oil Sands CAGR Synthetic 1.02 0.97 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.19 1.22 1.22 2% Bitumen 1.40 1.49 1.64 1.84 1.83 1.70 1.86 1.92 1.95 2% Canada’s oil supply growth 2.42 2.46 2.70 2.94 2.98 2.84 3.05 3.14 3.18 2% will likely pause through Year/Year Change 0.21 0.04 0.24 0.24 0.04 -0.14 0.22 0.09 0.04 Conventional Heavy 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.29 0.26 0.25 0.25 -8% 2021, pending improved oil Condensate & Pentanes 0.22 0.26 0.32 0.40 0.43 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.47 2% market conditions, balance Western Conventional Light & Medium 0.66 0.57 0.59 0.64 0.64 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 -3% 1.25 1.18 1.27 1.38 1.42 1.30 1.28 1.28 1.29 -2% sheet deleveraging and Year/Year Change -0.05 -0.07 0.09 0.11 0.04 -0.13 -0.01 0.00 0.01 improved egress. Western Canada: Oil Sands + Conv Oil 3.67 3.64 3.97 4.32 4.40 4.13 4.34 4.42 4.47 0% Year/Year Change 0.16 -0.03 0.33 0.35 0.08 -0.27 0.20 0.08 0.05 East Coast - Grand Banks Terra Nova 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 -2% Hibernia 0.09 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0% White Rose 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 -12% Hebron 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 8% 0.17 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.29 3% (2) Canada Oil & Condensate & Pentanes Production 3.85 3.85 4.19 4.55 4.66 4.41 4.62 4.73 4.76 0% Year/Year Change 0.12 0.01 0.34 0.36 0.11 -0.26 0.22 0.10 0.03 NGLs (Ethane, Propane, Butane) 0.51 0.58 0.63 0.64 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0% Canada Oil & NGLs (1) 4.36 4.43 4.82 5.20 5.35 5.08 5.30 5.41 5.44 0% Year/Year Change 0.12 0.08 0.39 0.37 0.15 -0.27 0.23 0.10 0.03 Notes: (1) Canada Oil & NGL production includes Ethane, Propane and Butane. (2) Refers to oil, condensate and pentanes production. Excludes ethane, propane and butane. (3)Condensate totals exclude plant/refinery volumes. Source: AER, CER, Canada – Newfoundland & Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, IEA Oil Market Report, StatsCan, RBC Capital Markets estimates September 24, 2020 2 Energy Insights Exhibit 3: Canada Oil Sands Production Outlook – 2005-23 million bbl/d Forecast 3.4 Previous outlook Our freshened 2021 outlook 3.2 is down about 381,000 bbl/d, reflective of 2.9 turnarounds, likely Updated outlook 2.7 curtailment extension, and sagging streams elsewhere. 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: AER, CER, RBC Capital Markets estimates Exhibit 4: Canada Oil Sands Production Outlook – 2021 Adjustments '000 bbl/d 5,100 5,005 (12) 5,000 (35) (39) (41) 4,900 (23) (70) (381) 4,800 (45) (70) 4,700 (48) 4,624 4,600 4,500 Prev. Oil Sands Conv. SU CVE SU Oil Sands Conv. Light Condensate Offshore Updated Outlook Synthetic Heavy Ft. Hills Christina Firebag Bitumen & Medium & Pentanes East Coast Outlook Lake Bitumen Note: Adjustments are compared to our prior outlook as published in May 2019 Source: AER, CER, RBC Capital Markets estimates September 24, 2020 3 Energy Insights Exhibit 5: Canada Oil Sands Production Outlook – Select Projects (bbl/d) Project Operator Recovery Capacity Product 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2019-23E CAGR Syncrude Syncrude Mining 350,000 SCO 266,840 257,369 247,868 270,404 248,296 245,243 293,286 279,975 304,200 315,000 315,000 2% Cold Lake Imperial Oil CSS 160,000 Bitumen 152,460 146,521 158,529 160,984 162,279 146,753 140,490 135,300 132,500 135,000 135,000 -1% Millennium/North Steepbank Suncor Energy Mining 350,000 SCO 209,581 213,480 239,110 186,439 238,803 201,058 223,378 194,976 200,207 221,142 221,142 0% Primrose/Wolf Lake Canadian Natural Resources CSS 120,000 Bitumen 96,000 92,602 99,588 70,706 78,668 67,313 75,900 78,000 78,000 85,000 90,000 4% Hangingstone JACOS SAGD 20,000 Bitumen 5,940 5,733 5,277 3,764 3,339 18,749 25,950 18,500 24,800 28,500 28,500 2% Foster Creek Cenovus Energy SAGD 180,000 Bitumen 106,380 118,344 130,690 140,488 153,369 161,979 159,598 164,963 165,000 165,000 165,000 1% MacKay River Suncor Energy SAGD 38,000 Bitumen 28,500 27,000 30,700 27,600 31,051 36,000 29,200 18,650 32,900 34,960 34,960 5% Christina Lake Cenovus Energy SAGD 260,000 Bitumen 98,620 138,046 149,950 158,897 205,502 201,017 194,659 210,065 213,767 225,000 234,000 5% Firebag - SCO Suncor Energy SAGD SCO 73,019 75,620 80,990 72,461 78,897 79,242 89,922 104,522 111,543 111,358 111,358 5% Firebag - Bitumen Suncor Energy SAGD 215,000 Bitumen 49,400 74,800 82,813 88,300 80,600 102,000 70,300 46,551 62,300 62,540 62,540 -3% Athabasca Oil Sands Project(a) Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Mining 320,000 SCO 237,206 246,843 240,424 259,736 276,950 285,700 286,400 270,000 292,400 292,400 292,400 1% Lloydminster Upgrader Husky Energy Upgrader 82,000 SCO 50,500 53,260 51,074 55,206 49,805 52,949 55,300 50,050 48,700 48,700 48,700 -3% Orion Osum Oil Sands SAGD 12,000 Bitumen 5,471 7,297 7,742 7,249 8,100 11,082 18,750 19,500 19,500 19,500 19,500 1% Jackfish Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) SAGD 105,000 Bitumen 57,016 65,797 86,538 111,329 116,621 100,066 97,750 101,500 105,000 110,000 120,000 5% Surmont ConocoPhillips SAGD 148,000 Bitumen 26,000 24,000 27,561 69,316 120,069 137,670 125,300 95,900 117,400 121,200 121,200 -1% Long Lake Nexen (CNOOC) SAGD SCO 36,542 42,911 38,882 1,162 NM Long Lake Nexen (CNOOC) SAGD 72,000 Bitumen 21,713 40,742 44,410 46,300 32,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 -1% Great Divide Connacher Oil and Gas SAGD 20,000 Bitumen 11,857 14,139 14,542 8,578 12,556 11,097 10,930 10,500 11,000 11,000 11,000 0% Christina Lake MEG Energy SAGD
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