Bulletin #33 • February 2020 • www.zrbf.co.zw
The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url
Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of January 2019 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 6 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding Proposed Mitigatory Activities 7 this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water or . level in selected rivers 11 undp.org) Shupikai Mutyambizi ([email protected])
UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Overall Results and Implications
Summary Classification
Key Highlights
According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, all 18 districts were in the Alert category. The following micro indicators which in the Emergency Stage, drove this overall classification.
• Mid-season dry spells In Zvishavane (24 days).
• Livestock poverty deaths in Insiza (1818), Chiredzi (1591), Beitbridge (1200).
• Reported cases of waterborne diseases in Chiredzi, Mwenezi, Mudzi, Mutoko, Binga, Nyanga, Kariba and Mbire.
• Sheep Prices in Nyanga (US10).
Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020 Zvishavane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Umzingwane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm
Normal No data Umguza
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Nyanga
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
No data No data Nkayi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Mwenezi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Mutoko
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mudzi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mbire
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm
No data No data No data No data Mberengwa
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Matobo
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Lupane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Alarm Normal Kariba
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm
No data No data No data No data No data Insiza
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Chiredzi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Binga
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm
No data No data No data No data No data Bubi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Beitbridge
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Month Jan-20 Jan-19 Oct-19 Oct-18 Apr-19 Feb-19 Sep-19 July-19 Nov 18 Nov Dec-19 Dec-18 Aug-19 Nov-19 Mar-19 May-19 Sept-18 June-19 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts Overall Classification Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators
Vegetation Condition Index
Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for January 2020
The Vegetation Condition Index shows an deteriorating vegetation condition in all districts of the country. VCI culminated in the following classification: a) Normal (Binga, Bubi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane) b) Alert (Mwenezi) c) Alarm (Beitbridge and Chiredzi),
District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.38 Alarm Mbire 0.93 Normal Binga 0.80 Normal Mudzi 0.89 Normal Bubi 0.87 Normal Mutoko 0.88 Normal Chiredzi 0.32 Alarm Mwenezi 0.52 Alert Insiza 0.79 Normal Nkayi 0.73 Normal Kariba 0.88 Normal Nyanga 0.86 Normal Lupane 0.78 Normal Umguza 0.80 Normal Matobo 0.88 Normal Umzingwane 0.88 Normal Mberengwa 0.85 Normal Zvishavane 0.72 Normal Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Real-time water levels in major rivers The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had slightly higher flow rates indicating but which were below flooding thresholds. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Most of the rivers low flow rates as shown by the either low figures and below gauge figures below. Table 2 show that there was no flooding risk in all the districts.
Table 2: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, January 2020.
River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 654 Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 5.39 Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge No Data Musengezi Centenary No Data Musengezi Chidodo Below Gauge Save Condo Dam 0.799 Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No Data Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators • The micro-indicator data from the 18 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert category shifting slightly from the catego- ries for the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in all 18 districts. Pasture availability remained in critical conditions in most districts and only improved in three districts where some significant rains were received. The crisis modifier interventions which saw the drilling and rehabilitation of boreholes in most districts and rains received contributed significantly to the improvement in the state of water sources as compared to the previous month. • Production indicators were in the Alert category in 9 districts. This is mainly due to livestock body condition which is yet to improve due to the pasture availability. High livestock poverty deaths were recorded in three districts with Insiza, Beitbridge and Chiredzi recording above a thousand cattle deaths. 9 districts also recorded very high cases of waterborne diseases, mainly common diarrhoea and dysentery. Nyanga recorded 4 cases of typhoid. • Access indicators were in the Alert category in 16 districts except Lupane which remained in Alarm. Distances to water sources for households and livestock trekking distances improved significantly in most districts due to the rains and the crisis modifier boreholes drilled and repaired during the last quarter of 2019. School attendance also significantly improved to an average of 4 days attendance. • Four (4) districts were in the Alarm category for Trade indicators and 14 were in the Alert. Prices continue to in- crease in ZWL as they are pegged against the USD or Rand. However, when converted using the official interbank rates they reflect the true USD value of the commodities and some falling slightly below the USD acceptable threshold.
Trigger Indicator summary for January 2020 District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Alert Binga Alert Normal Alert Alert Bubi Alert Normal Alert Alert Chiredzi Alert Normal Alert Alert Insiza Alert Alert Alert Alert Kariba Alert Normal Normal Alarm Lupane Alert Normal Alarm Alert Matobo Alert Alert Alert Alert Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Alert Mbire Alert Alert Alert Alarm Mudzi Alert Normal Alert Alert Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Alert Mwenezi Alert Normal Alert Alert Nkayi Alert Normal Alert Alarm Nyanga Alert Alert Alert Alert Umguza Alert Alert Alert Alert
Umzingwane Alert Normal Alert Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Alert Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities
Biophysical Trigger indicators
Biophysical trigger indicator summary for January 2020
Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Mid-season Dry Spells Spellsspells Beitbridge 2 29.3 2 0 Binga 3 147 3 0 Bubi 2 118.6 2 0 Chiredzi 2 142.92 3 0 Insiza 2 62.5 3 0 Kariba 3 188 2 Lupane 2 49 3 0 Matobo 2 23 2 0 Mberengwa 3 99.69 2 0 Mbire 3 208 3 16 Mudzi 3 128.98 4 10 Mutoko 3 187.95 3 20 Mwenezi 2 114.27 3 12 Nkayi 3 183.2 3 7 Nyanga 4 375 3 15 Umguza 2 78 3 0 Umzingwane 2 198 2 0 Zvishavane 3 122.9 3 24 • Pasture availability improved slightly from Emergency category in eight (8) districts last month to Alarm in the same. Pastures remain inadequate in most districts although improving slightly due to the rains received. Seven (7) districts were in the Alert Category.
• Rainfall was recorded in all 18 districts, Mwenezi, Nyanga, Mudzi and Zvishavane recording between 180 and 200mm of rain. The Alert categorisation in the 10 districts is a proxy for potential flooding.
• Six (6) districts were in the Alarm category for state of water sources with 30-65% of the boreholes functioning, this is a reduction from 10 districts in Alarm the previous month. Ten districts were in Alert and water sources in Mutoko were recorded as Available – more than 85 % of boreholes are functional in the district.
Proposed Mitigatory Activities
• The cattle owners should be encouraged to destock, as the rangeland carrying capacity continues to be compromised by the inadequate rainfall and frequent droughts. The ZRBF consortia should take advantage of the current Crisis Modifier top up to step efforts for fodder production and preservation for all the ZRBF beneficiaries to prevent cattle poverty death in the future.
• Very long dry spells were recorded across the 18 districts, with Zvishavane recording up to 24 dry spell days. Farmers should be encouraged to make use of 3 to 10-day weather forecasts from the Meteoro- logical Services Department to inform their crop management. Replanting of short season varieties should be encouraged where wet conditions are predicted in the month of February. Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Production Trigger indicators
Production trigger indicator summary for January 2020
Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Reported Cases Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Livestock of Livestock of Waterborne Outbreaks Poverty Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 3 2 1 1200 34 494 Binga No data No data 2 2 0 540 Bubi 3 1 2 0 4 0 Chiredzi 3 3 1 1591 1 0 Insiza 1 2 2 1818 17 0 Kariba 1 3 2 1 0 1146 Lupane 1 2 1 0 8 0 Matobo 2 1 1 0 37 10 Mberengwa 2 3 2 34 326 12 Mbire 2 3 2 5 22 534 Mudzi 2 3 2 0 6 0 Mutoko 2 3 2 0 75 0 Mwenezi 2 3 2 67 0 0 Nkayi 3 3 2 0 2 208 Nyanga 1 3 2 0 42 574 Umguza 2 3 3 84 126 308 Umzingwane 1 2 2 0 2 0 Zvishavane 2 3 2 0 74 53
• Livestock Body Condition was in Alarm category in four districts, a significant improvement from Emer- gency in 5 districts in December. This is attributable to the improvement in state of water sources, pastures and decreased livestock trekking distances. The crisis modifier interventions contributed sig- nificantly to improvements in the livestock body condition. 12 districts were in the Alert category. • High numbers of Livestock poverty deaths were experienced in Beitbridge (1200), Chiredzi (1591), and Insiza (1818), down from 12 districts last month. Deaths between 5-84 were recorded in four districts, two in Alarm and Two in Alert. The rest of the districts were in the normal category. Again the reduc- tion in deaths can be attributed to the rains received and crisis modifier activities which improved the state of water sources, decrease livestock trekking distance and improved livestock body condition. • Three districts were in Alarm Category for livestock diseases and 11 were in Alert. There were no re- ported cases of diseases of economic importance; Anthrax and FMD. • Seven districts were in the Emergency category for water borne diseases, down from 11 in December; with high cases of common diarrhoea. Dysentery cases were recorded in all the 18 districts and four cases of typhoid were recorded in Nyanga.
Proposed Mitigatory Activities
• The ZRBF consortia across the 18 districts in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Child Wel- fare and the local authorities should leverage on the Crisis Modifier top up to invoke rigorous public health and hygiene awareness campaigns to reduce the prevalence of water borne diseases. The af- fected community members should be encouraged to take oral rehydration (salt and sugar) solution while seeking medical attention to the nearest health centre. Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Access Trigger Indicators
Access trigger indicator summary for January 2020
Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 2 3 3 1 Binga 1 2 3 1 Bubi 3 2 4 3.5 Chiredzi 1.16 2 3 1.19 Insiza 3 2 3 3 Kariba 1 2 4 1 Lupane 3 1 2 3 Matobo 3 2 3 4 Mberengwa 1.57 2 4 1.66 Mbire 2 2 3 1 Mudzi 1.55 2 3 1.45 Mutoko 1 2 3 1.5 Mwenezi 1.61 2 3 1.63 Nkayi 3 2 3 3.5 Nyanga 2.4 2 4 6 Umguza 2.5 2 4 2.5 Umzingwane 2.5 2 4 3.5 Zvishavane 1.19 2 4 1.6 • Distance to water sources was in Alert category in 15 districts and three districts have an average of 1km distance of water for household use. There has been an improvement from last month due to the Crisis Modifier activities where boreholes were drilled and rehabilitated.
• Seven districts were in the Alert category for Water for livestock trekking distance. There has been a significant improvement in this due to the rains received and the improvement in state of water sources. Umguza however has livestock trekking an average of 6km for water.
• Sixteen districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert cat- egory. Due to increase in prices of food commodities, households have reduced meals to two per day to cope. Matobo is in the Alarm category as families have reduced meals to 1 per day.
• School attendance was in the Alert category in 10 districts up from seven last month; with average attendance of 3 days. Matobo recorded the lowest of 2 days; the 1 meal a day can explain the low school attendance.
Proposed Mitigatory Activities
• The ZRBF, through the District Development Fund, should take advantage of the Crisis Modifier top up to continue rehabilitating and solarising non-functional boreholes to improve the water situation, giving priority to Umguza. In order to make the water point improvements more sustainable, efforts should always be made to ensure that the water point management committees are strengthened, and the water users have a revolving fund for both maintenance and replacement investment.
• The ZRBF consortia should continue to work closely with the humanitarian organisations in their respective districts to enable them to assess the food assistance needs for both ZRBF and non ZRBF beneficiaries. Sizimele Consortia should discuss with the Matobo local government authorities and the Social services to assess the adequacy of humanitarian assistance in the district. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Trade Trigger Indicators
Trade trigger indicator summary for January 2020
Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price Millet Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 155 23.27 6.2 6.2 7.33 7.33 31 7.33 Binga 300 26.67 4 10 10 No Data 30 10 Bubi 333.33 33.33 5.33 5.33 No Data 5.33 36.67 5.33 Chiredzi 229.8 25.87 4.47 6.93 5.93 7.13 40.6 5.67 Insiza 350 40 6 5 5 No Data 50 6 Kariba 266.67 18.67 5.33 5.8 No Data No Data 33.33 5 Lupane 350 40 6 6 5 No Data 60 5 Matobo 370 50 5 6 5 No Data 60 5 Mberengwa 400 33.33 5.33 8 8 10 66.67 6.67 Mbire 237.53 20 4.13 4 5.33 5.33 26.67 4.33 Mudzi 260.67 27.4 4.8 6.8 7.53 9 52.47 5.47 Mutoko 400 20 4 4.67 8 8.67 33.33 6 Mwenezi 316.67 30 4.5 5.13 4.73 8.87 46.33 4.53 Nkayi 333.33 33.33 5.33 6.67 No Data No Data 36.67 No Data Nyanga 475 40 5 5 6 6 10 5 Umguza 366.67 41.33 7.33 6.67 6.67 No Data 43.33 9.33 Umzingwane 366.67 43.33 7.33 7.33 No Data No Data 50 No Data Zvishavane 333.33 53.33 5.33 6.67 6.67 8.67 80 8.67
• Trade Indicators were converted to USD using the prevailing interbank rate of 17.3 as 31 January 2020. Sheep prices have dropped to USD10 in Mwenezi which is below the threshold although they seem to have not changed in ZWL terms. The increase in the interbank rate has seen some of the commodities like goat prices in Nkayi and cattle prices in Beitbridge. Rapoko prices are also in the Alarm category in three districts where there has been a drop in USD terms.
• It should be noted that whilst most commodity prices were satisfactory to the seller, they are quite prohibitive to the farmers who want to purchase both in ZWL and USD values due to the prevailing harsh economic conditions. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers
River water flow categorisation
Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence Masvingo 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%