High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020
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Bulletin #33 • February 2020 • www.zrbf.co.zw The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of January 2019 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 6 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding Proposed Mitigatory Activities 7 this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water or . level in selected rivers 11 undp.org) Shupikai Mutyambizi ([email protected]) UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020 Overall Results and Implications Summary Classification Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, all 18 districts were in the Alert category. The following micro indicators which in the Emergency Stage, drove this overall classification. • Mid-season dry spells In Zvishavane (24 days). • Livestock poverty deaths in Insiza (1818), Chiredzi (1591), Beitbridge (1200). • Reported cases of waterborne diseases in Chiredzi, Mwenezi, Mudzi, Mutoko, Binga, Nyanga, Kariba and Mbire. • Sheep Prices in Nyanga (US10). Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. Overall Classification of the 18 districts Bubi Binga Nkayi Insiza Mbire Mudzi Kariba Month Lupane Nyanga Mutoko Matobo Chiredzi Umguza Mwenezi Beitbridge Zvishavane Mberengwa Umzingwane Page 3 Jan-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Dec-19 Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert | High Frequency MonitoringReport High Frequency Nov-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Oct-19 Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Sep-19 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Aug-19 Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert July-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert June-19 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Bulletin #33|February 2020 May-19 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Apr-19 Alert Alert No data Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mar-19 Alert Alert No data Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Feb-19 Alert Alert No data Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Jan-19 Alert Alert No data Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Dec-18 Alert Alert No data Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Nov 18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Oct-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Sept-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020 Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for January 2020 The Vegetation Condition Index shows an deteriorating vegetation condition in all districts of the country. VCI culminated in the following classification: a) Normal (Binga, Bubi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane) b) Alert (Mwenezi) c) Alarm (Beitbridge and Chiredzi), District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.38 Alarm Mbire 0.93 Normal Binga 0.80 Normal Mudzi 0.89 Normal Bubi 0.87 Normal Mutoko 0.88 Normal Chiredzi 0.32 Alarm Mwenezi 0.52 Alert Insiza 0.79 Normal Nkayi 0.73 Normal Kariba 0.88 Normal Nyanga 0.86 Normal Lupane 0.78 Normal Umguza 0.80 Normal Matobo 0.88 Normal Umzingwane 0.88 Normal Mberengwa 0.85 Normal Zvishavane 0.72 Normal Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020 Real-time water levels in major rivers The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had slightly higher flow rates indicating but which were below flooding thresholds. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Most of the rivers low flow rates as shown by the either low figures and below gauge figures below. Table 2 show that there was no flooding risk in all the districts. Table 2: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, January 2020. River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 654 Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 5.39 Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge No Data Musengezi Centenary No Data Musengezi Chidodo Below Gauge Save Condo Dam 0.799 Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No Data Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators • The micro-indicator data from the 18 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert category shifting slightly from the catego- ries for the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in all 18 districts. Pasture availability remained in critical conditions in most districts and only improved in three districts where some significant rains were received. The crisis modifier interventions which saw the drilling and rehabilitation of boreholes in most districts and rains received contributed significantly to the improvement in the state of water sources as compared to the previous month. • Production indicators were in the Alert category in 9 districts. This is mainly due to livestock body condition which is yet to improve due to the pasture availability. High livestock poverty deaths were recorded in three districts with Insiza, Beitbridge and Chiredzi recording above a thousand cattle deaths. 9 districts also recorded very high cases of waterborne diseases, mainly common diarrhoea and dysentery. Nyanga recorded 4 cases of typhoid. • Access indicators were in the Alert category in 16 districts except Lupane which remained in Alarm. Distances to water sources for households and livestock trekking distances improved significantly in most districts due to the rains and the crisis modifier boreholes drilled and repaired during the last quarter of 2019. School attendance also significantly improved to an average of 4 days attendance. • Four (4) districts were in the Alarm category for Trade indicators and 14 were in the Alert. Prices continue to in- crease in ZWL as they are pegged against the USD or Rand. However, when converted using the official interbank rates they reflect the true USD value of the commodities and some falling slightly below the USD acceptable threshold. Trigger Indicator summary for January 2020 District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Alert Binga Alert Normal Alert Alert Bubi Alert Normal Alert Alert Chiredzi Alert Normal Alert Alert Insiza Alert Alert Alert Alert Kariba Alert Normal Normal Alarm Lupane Alert Normal Alarm Alert Matobo Alert Alert Alert Alert Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Alert Mbire Alert Alert Alert Alarm Mudzi Alert Normal Alert Alert Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Alert Mwenezi Alert Normal Alert Alert Nkayi Alert Normal Alert Alarm Nyanga Alert Alert Alert Alert Umguza Alert Alert Alert Alert Umzingwane Alert Normal Alert Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Alert Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #33 | February 2020 Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities Biophysical Trigger indicators Biophysical trigger indicator summary for January 2020 Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Mid-season Dry Spells Spellsspells Beitbridge 2 29.3 2 0 Binga 3 147 3 0 Bubi 2 118.6 2 0 Chiredzi 2 142.92 3 0 Insiza 2 62.5 3 0 Kariba 3 188 2 Lupane 2 49 3 0 Matobo 2 23 2 0 Mberengwa 3 99.69 2 0 Mbire 3 208 3 16 Mudzi 3 128.98 4 10 Mutoko 3 187.95 3 20 Mwenezi 2 114.27 3 12 Nkayi 3 183.2 3 7 Nyanga 4 375 3 15 Umguza 2 78 3 0 Umzingwane 2 198 2 0 Zvishavane 3 122.9 3 24 • Pasture availability improved slightly from Emergency category in eight (8) districts last month to Alarm in the same. Pastures remain inadequate in most districts although improving slightly due to the rains received.