Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Company Date 13 January 2016 Axiata Group Berhad Harsh Agarwal, CFA IG Corporate Credit Research Analyst Telecommunications (+65) 6423 6967
[email protected] Kalvin Fernandes Initiating with Hold Research Associate
[email protected] Relative value Regional telcos: Compared to similar rated regional telcos in Asia, i.e. Bharti Airtel (BBB-/Baa3/BBB-) and PCCW-HKT (BBB/Baa2/NR), we think Axiata (BBB/Baa2) looks slightly cheap. Bharti is larger than the other two, but earns majority of its revenue and EBITDA from a single location - India, has high capex plans, higher leverage, and is rated one notch lower. PCCW-HKT too only operates in Hong Kong and has a relatively high leverage, however Hong Kong is a mature market and PCCW-HKT’s business is very stable. Axiata is similar in size to PCCW, and although it has a holdco structure, it also has a slightly lower leverage, operations are more geographically diversified, and benefits from government ownership. We believe Axiata should trade 20-25bps tighter than Bharti and flattish to PCCW-HKT. Considering the Bharti 2025s trading around G+245bp and typical 5-10 spread curve of 50-60bps in Asia IG, theoretical Bharti 2020s should trade at G+185-190bps, taking our fair value for Axiata 2020s to G+160-165bp. Even PCCW-HKT 2023s are at G+165bps, and hence, the current level of G+170bps for Axiata 2020s looks slightly cheap to us. Figure 1: Middle East Comps G spread 250 Sukuks from Middle East: Middle East investors took up ~20% of the Axiata JAFZSK 19 issue, hence we also compare them to Middle East corporate sukuks with 200 (NR/Baa3/BBB-) similar ratings.