The economic importance of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore: An extreme-scenario analysis Author Qu, Xiaobo, Meng, Qiang Published 2012 Journal Title Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2011.08.005 Copyright Statement © 2012 Elsevier. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version. Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/47702 Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au The Economic Importance of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore: An Extreme Scenario Analysis Xiaobo Qu,and Qiang Meng* Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117576 ABSTRACT This paper proposes a decision tree model to estimate the loss to global economy on the hypothesis of an extreme scenario of blockade of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. The insurance surcharges, inventory costs and the time values of cargoes, and time charter equivalent rate are used to estimate the psychological loss, the loss to industries, and the loss to carriers, respectively. Interestingly, there is a pseudo- paradoxical phenomenon with respect to the loss to carriers. An illustrative example is also provided to explain the “Malacca Paradox”. Key words: Blockade; the Straits of Malacca and Singapore; discrete choice model; impact analysis; Malacca Paradox * Corresponding author, Tel.: +65-65165494; fax +65 6779 1635, E-mail:
[email protected] (Qiang Meng) 1 1. INTRODUCTION The Straits of Malacca and Singapore is one of the most important shipping waterways in the world from both an economic and a strategic perspective.