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VAT, Air Passenger Duty and Tourism in Northern Ireland VAT, Air Passenger Duty and tourism in Northern Ireland VAT, AIR PASSENGER DUTY AND TOURISM IN NORTHERN IRELAND JUNE 2018 VAT, Air Passenger Duty and tourism in Northern Ireland Oxford Economics Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Our best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Miami, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington DC. We employ over 300 full-time people, including more than 200 professional economists, industry experts and business editors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities, from econometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels, and web analytics. Underpinning our in-house expertise is a contributor network of over 500 economists, analysts and journalists around the world. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers and thought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over 1,500 international organisations, including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks. June 2018 All data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics’ own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes, and are copyright © Oxford Economics Ltd. This report is confidential to Northern Ireland Tourism Alliance and may not be published or distributed without their prior written permission. The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown. To discuss the report further please contact: Neil McCullough: [email protected] Oxford Economics Lagan House, Sackville Street, Lisburn, BT27 4AB Tel: 028 9263 5416 VAT, Air Passenger Duty and tourism in Northern Ireland TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary ............................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction...................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Call for evidence ...................................................................................... 3 1.2 This response ........................................................................................... 3 1.3 The Northern Ireland Tourism Alliance .................................................... 3 2. Importance of tourism to Northern Ireland ...................................................... 4 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................. 4 2.2 Tourism’s record performance ................................................................. 4 2.3 Room for improvement ............................................................................ 7 2.4 Outlook and risks ................................................................................... 11 3. Responding to the call for evidence .............................................................. 15 3.1 Question 1: What evidence is there that demonstrates the impact of VAT and APD on the tourism sector? .................................................................. 15 3.2 Question 2: What evidence is there that cost is a significant factor to tourists considering visiting Northern Ireland? What proportion of the cost of a holiday in Northern Ireland is made up of VAT and APD? How much does the cost of a holiday in Northern Ireland differ from other parts of the UK, and from other parts of the Island of Ireland? .............................................. 16 3.3 Question 3: Are there additional challenges, unique to the tourism industry in Northern Ireland, which might be addressed through VAT or APD changes? ...................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Question 4: What impact do current VAT reliefs, exemptions and refunds have on the tourism industry in Northern Ireland? Are they a significant benefit? ........................................................................................................ 21 3.5 Question 5: What impact do VAT and APD have on people considering visiting Northern Ireland for business purposes? ......................................... 22 3.6 Question 6: What evidence is there that changes to the VAT rate applied to tourism in other countries has had a significant impact on the demand for tourism in those countries? What evidence is there to suggest the reduced rate of VAT in Ireland has positively or negatively affected tourism in Northern Ireland? What was the impact of the Northern Ireland Assembly’s 2012 decision to set a £0 APD rate on direct long-haul flights departing Northern Ireland? ......................................................................................... 23 3.7 Question 7: What is the composition of the tourism industry in Northern Ireland? How have the individual tourism related sectors listed in 4.1 performed in recent years? .......................................................................... 25 VAT, Air Passenger Duty and tourism in Northern Ireland 3.8 Question 8: Do VAT and APD impact different tourism related businesses in different ways? For example, do restaurants derive a greater benefit from the UK’s high registration threshold than accommodation providers? .................................................................................................... 28 3.9 Question 9: What evidence is there that the impacts of VAT and APD on tourism differ from the impacts of VAT and APD on other sectors of the economy? ..................................................................................................... 29 3.10 Question 10: How would different VAT rules for tourism related activities in Northern Ireland, and/or a lower rate of APD in Northern Ireland affect the tourism industry in other parts of the UK? What impact would VAT and/or APD changes have on businesses administrative burdens? ........... 30 3.11 Question 11: Would a lower rate of APD encourage outbound tourism from Northern Ireland? What effect would this have on the tourism industry there? ........................................................................................................... 33 3.12 Question 12: What would be the individual and/or collective impact of a change to VAT on: accommodation, leisure activities and restaurants, other tourism related activities and/or a change to APD rates in Northern Ireland on tax revenue and the wider economy? ..................................................... 35 3.13 Question 13: How would businesses in the tourism sector respond to VAT and APD changes and to what extent would those changes would be passed through to consumers in the form of lower prices? ......................... 37 3.14 Question 14: What evidence is there that VAT and/or APD rate changes are a relatively cost-effective means of supporting the tourism industry? ....................................................................................................... 39 3.15 Question 15: How would a UK-wide change to VAT or APD benefit the tourism industry? How would the industry in Northern Ireland benefit relative to other regions in the UK? .......................................................................... 40 4. Appendix A: Bibliography .............................................................................. 42 VAT, Air Passenger Duty and tourism in Northern Ireland EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Northern Ireland’s tourism sector has been steadily growing over recent decades and the latest forecasts suggest that this trend will continue. Data for 2016 indicates that it was a record-breaking year for tourism. The increasing success of key attractions – including Titanic Belfast and sites associated with Game of Thrones – have contributed strongly to recent growth, while Lonely Planet has identified Belfast and Causeway Coast as its top region to visit globally in 2018. However, the sector has been growing from a low base, and continues to underperform relative to competing markets. Overall revenues generated by tourism are eight-times higher in the Republic of Ireland, despite having a population just 2.8 times larger than that of Northern Ireland. Despite relatively strong occupancy rates and a growing stock of accommodation, a key difficulty is retaining visitors to Northern Ireland. Many visitors to the key attractions tend to do so through day-trips originating from Dublin, therefore retaining much of the spending within the
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