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Brexit Bulletin 13 October 2017

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Brexit Bulletin 13 October 2017 Brexit Bulletin 13 October 2017 Contents Brexit Countdown ................................................................................................................................... 2 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Latest News & Developments ................................................................................................................. 4 Conservative Party Conference: ‘It’s time for some optimism’ .......................................................... 4 May’s Statement to Parliament – and white papers .......................................................................... 4 Negotiations: A ‘Disturbing Deadlock’ ................................................................................................ 6 Where now? ........................................................................................................................................ 7 The Fortnight Ahead ............................................................................................................................... 9 1 Brexit Countdown • The UK government triggered Article 50, formally starting the process of the UK’s exit from the European Union. 29 March 2017 • The UK general election saw Theresa May lose her majority, despite having called the election with the express intention of increasing it, supposedly 8 June 2017 in order to strengthen her position in the Brexit negotiations. • Talks between the two sides started, amid accusations that the UK was unprepared. The initial stage of negotiations will focus on the details of 19th June 2017 withdrawal, such as citizens' rights, payments, and the UK-Ireland border. • The European Commission will make a recommendation on whether it is possible to move onto negotiating a ‘framework for future relations’, October- preferably by the next European Council meeting (19-20th October). The December 2017 next Council meeting after this will be on 14-15th December. • The final deal will need to be agreed, so that it can be ratified over the next six months. October 2018 • Deadline for securing a deal. 29 March 2019 • Potential transition phase, with technical talks on the future relationship continuing. ? 2 Summary • The Conservative Party Conference gave us little in the way of further detail on the UK’s position, although David Davis expressed hope that a deal on citizens’ rights could be obtained ‘soon’. • Theresa May gave a statement to the House of Commons on the progress of the Brexit negotiations, saying that the ‘ball is in [the EU’s] court.’ This coincided with the publication of new white papers on trade and customs. • After the end of the latest round of negotiations, Michel Barnier said that the talks had reached ‘deadlock’. • It looks almost certain that the European Council will decide at its meeting on 19-20 October that there has not been ‘sufficient progress’ to move on to talks about the transitional period or the future relationship. However, a draft document suggests that the member countries will start preparing for these between themselves. 3 Latest News & Developments Conservative Party Conference: ‘It’s time for some optimism’ If there was one common theme emerging from the speeches of the Brit triumvirate of David Davis, Liam Fox, and Boris Johnson, it was the triumph of rhetoric over detail. Fox set the overall tone, starting his speech with the declaration that ‘It’s time for some optimism.’ He spoke about his vision ‘of a UK that trades its way to prosperity, stability and security’, but also about some of the practical details: tabling new trading schedules at the World Trade Organisation, translating EU trade agreements into UK law, and establishing working groups with other countries. David Davis spoke about ‘a one-off time-limited extraordinary opportunity’ which ‘allows us to be more international’ and ‘to lead a race to the top’. He was ‘certain’ that a deal on citizens’ rights could be obtained ‘soon’, but said that a deal on the financial settlement could only be finally settled in the context of ‘the prize on offer at the end of the process.’ Domestically, he spoke about the Repeal Bill and confirmed that ‘there is a determined exercise underway in Whitehall devoted to contingency arrangements’. Johnson’s speech made the point that ‘the only way to win the future is not to retreat from the world, not to abandon globalisation but to play our part, as we always have, in making the world safer and freer – and therefore more prosperous and that is why we must believe in global Britain.’ Theresa May’s speech had been much-anticipated, with many commentators wondering how she might reconcile her conciliatory approach in Florence with the need to give the Conservative Party faithful some red meat on Brexit. In the event, her speech’s content was largely overshadowed by a series of unfortunate events – a prankster, her cough, and the backdrop falling apart – but she had little to say on Brexit. She said that her ‘first and most important duty’ to the country was ‘to get Brexit right.’ She spoke of the need for a ‘deep and special partnership’ between the UK and the EU, in which ‘the United Kingdom is a sovereign nation once again.’ Having said that this was the UK’s offer, she said that she looked ‘forward to that offer receiving a positive response.’ Finally, she reached out to EU citizens in the UK to tell them that ‘you are welcome here’ and expressed hope that agreement would be reached ‘quickly’ on this point. May’s Statement to Parliament – and white papers On Monday, Theresa May made a statement to the House of Commons on the UK’s plans for leaving the EU. She confirmed her rejection of both the EEA and ‘Canada-style free trade agreement’ models and set out her desire for a ‘a unique and ambitious economic partnership’ and a ‘bold new strategic agreement’ on security. She repeated her request for a ‘strictly time-limited’ implementation period based on the ‘existing structure of EU rules and regulations’. There would be a ‘registration system’ for immigrants from the EU, who would be subject to ‘new rules […] on long-term settlement’ and new trade deals would be prepared for implementation after the implementation period ended. However, she also opened the possibility of phasing in aspects of the ‘future framework’ (e.g. dispute resolution) during the implementation period and said that a ‘double lock’ should be in place so that the period does ‘not go on forever.’ On the three aspects of the current negotiations, she had the following to say: 1. Citizens’ rights: ‘Since Florence, there has been more progress, including reaching agreement on reciprocal healthcare and pensions, and encouraging further alignment on a range of 4 important social security rights. I hope that our negotiating teams can now reach full agreement quickly.’ 2. Northern Ireland: ‘we have begun drafting joint principles on preserving the Common Travel Area and associated rights, and we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border. We owe it to the people of Northern Ireland—and indeed to everyone on the island of Ireland—to get this right.’ 3. Financial settlement: ‘this can only be resolved as part of a settlement of all the issues through which we are working. I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour the commitments that we have made during the period of our membership. As we move forwards, we will also want to continue working together in ways that promote the long-term economic development of our continent […] we would want to make a contribution to cover our fair share of the costs involved.’ She also confirmed that the Government was preparing ‘for every eventuality’ and suggested that the when it came to the negotiations, the ‘ball is in [the EU’s] court.’ In answer to a question from Jacob Rees-Mogg, she confirmed that the implementation period might begin with the European Court of Justice ‘still governing the rules’ but that the Government would wish to bring forward a new dispute resolution mechanism at an early stage if it could, and that it was ‘highly unlikely’ that any new EU rules would be introduced during the implementation period that the UK had not been a party to discussions about. She also confirmed that a list of the sectors for which the Government had produced impact assessments would be issued ‘shortly’ (although not the assessments themselves) and that she was negotiating a date to either speak to the plenary or the Conference of Presidents of the European Parliament. The Prime Minister’s statement coincided with the publication of two new white papers. The Department for International Trade published a white paper on ‘Preparing for Our Future Trade Policy’ and the Treasury published a paper on ‘Customs Bill: legislating for the UK’s future customs, VAT and excise regimes’. Whilst her statement on the continued jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice might have seemed likely to worry Brexiteers, May received backing from prominent leave campaigners including Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. Johnson argued that ‘what matters is the end state’, whilst Gove said that the UK needed to ‘be pragmatic over implementation’. Philip Hammond, however, followed up May’s comments around preparing for all scenarios with
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