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Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR00003941 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IBRD-78820) Public Disclosure Authorized ON A LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 60 MILLION TO THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Public Disclosure Authorized FOR A SHANDONG ECOLOGICAL AFFORESTATION PROJECT Jan. 31, 2017 Public Disclosure Authorized Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice China Country Office East Asia and Pacific Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective August 2016) Currency Unit = Renminbi (RMB) Yuan RMB 1.00 = US$ 0.15 US$ 1.00 = RMB 6.47 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACS Administrative and Client Support BP Bank Procedures CFB Country Forest Bureaus CPMO County Project Management Office CPS Country Partnership Strategy CO2 carbon dioxide DO development objective EA environmental assessment EACCF World Bank China Country Office EIB European Investment Bank EIRR Economic Internal Return Rate EMP Environmental Management Plan FIRR Financial Internal Return Rate GoC Government of China HS Highly Satisfactory Ha Hectares IA Implementation Agreement IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICR Implementation Complementation and Results Report ISR Implementation Status and Results Report IP Implementation of Project M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MPMO Municipal Project Management Office MTR Mid-term Review OCC Opportunity Cost of Capital OP Operational Policy PAD Project Appraisal Document PES Payment for Environmental Services PCN Project Concept Note PDO Project Development Objective PLG Project Leading Group PMO Project Management Office PPMO Provincial Project Management Office PPM Project Participatory Manual PMP Pest Management Plan QAG Quality Assurance Group QEA Quality at Entry Assessment QSA Quality of Supervision Assessment RMB renminbi (Chinese currency) S Satisfactory SA Social Assessment SEAP Shandong Ecological Afforestation Project SFB Shandong Finance Bureau SIL Sector Investment Loan SPP Species (plural) TF Trust Fund TTL Task Team Leader USD United States Dollar USA United States of America UK United Kingdom WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization Acting Senior Global Practice Director: Julia Bucknall Practice Manager: Iain G. Shuker Project Team Leader: Liu Jin ICR Team Leader: Garo Batmanian China Shandong Ecological Afforestation Project CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information ............................................................................................................ i B. Key Dates ........................................................................................................................ i C. Ratings Summary ............................................................................................................ i D. Sector and Theme Codes ................................................................................................ ii E. Bank Staff ....................................................................................................................... ii F. Results Framework Analysis .......................................................................................... ii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs ........................................................................ v H. Restructuring (if any) .................................................................................................... vi I. Disbursement Profile ...................................................................................................... vi 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design ................................................... 1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes .................................................. 4 3. Assessment of Outcomes .............................................................................................. 10 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome ............................................................. 20 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ......................................................... 21 6. Lessons Learned............................................................................................................ 23 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners............... 24 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing .............................................................................. 25 Annex 2. Outputs by Component...................................................................................... 26 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ..................................................................... 30 Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes ................. 37 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ............................................................................... 39 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ....................................................... 40 Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's Completion Report and Comments on the Draft ICR 41 I. Project Overview ........................................................................................................... 41 II. Factors affecting implementation and outcomes ......................................................... 43 III. Project Achievement ................................................................................................... 45 IV. Evaluation of Bank and Borrower performance ......................................................... 48 V. Experiences and Lessons Learned ............................................................................... 49 Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ........................... 51 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents .......................................................................... 52 MAP: Updated IBRD 37238 ............................................................................................ 53 A. Basic Information Shandong Ecological Country: China Project Name: Afforestation Project ID: P112759 L/C/TF Number(s): IBRD-78820 ICR Date: 01/31/2017 ICR Type: Core ICR People’s Republic of Lending Instrument: SIL Borrower: China Original Total USD 60.00M Disbursed Amount: USD 60.00M Commitment: Revised Amount: USD 60.00M Environmental Category: B Implementing Agencies: Shandong Provincial Forestry Department Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: None B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 08/25/2008 Effectiveness: 09/01/2010 08/11/2010 Appraisal: 08/31/2009 Restructuring(s): - - Approval: 05/06/2010 Mid-term Review: 10/25/2013 10/31/2013 Closing: 07/31/2016 07/31/2016 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Highly Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Low Bank Performance: Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Highly Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: S Government: HS Implementing Quality of Supervision: HS HS Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower S HS Performance: Performance: i C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No N/A at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any Quality of No N/A time (Yes/No): Supervision (QSA): DO rating before S N/A Closing/Inactive status: D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Forestry 80 80 Public administration- Agriculture, fishing and forestry 20 20 Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Climate change 20 20 Land administration and management 80 80 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Laura Tuck James W. Adams Country Director: Bert Hofman Klaus Rohland Practice Iain G. Shuker Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Manager/Manager: Project Team Leader: Jin Liu Susan Shen ICR Team Leader: Garo J. Batmanian ICR Primary Author: Richard Owen and Weiguo Zhou F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) To demonstrate effective afforestation models for environmentally degraded areas in support of Shandong's environmental afforestation programs. Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) Not revised. ii (a) PDO Indicator(s) Original Target Formally Actual Value Values (from Revised Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value approval Target Completion or documents) Values Target Years Indicator 1 : Increase of vegetation cover in project sites (%): a) Degraded mountainous areas Value quantitative or 16 60 - 73 Qualitative) Date achieved 12/31/2009 07/31/2016 - 07/31/2016 Achieved. Increase of 57% over baseline exceeded target increase (44%) by Comments almost 30%. Sites were planted with a mixture of at least 4 indigenous species (incl. % (spp) of trees & shrubs. Better-than-expected coverage with 95% survival and achievement) diversified spp now thriving in planted areas. Indicator 2 : Increase of vegetation cover in project sites (%): b) saline coastal area Value quantitative or 7 55 - 59 Qualitative) Date achieved 12/31/2009 07/31/2016 - 07/31/2016 Achieved. Target increase over baseline exceeded by 8%. Sites were planted with Comments a mixture of between 4 and 9 spp of trees & shrubs with 85% survival. The use of (incl. % genetically superior seedlings resulted in better-than-expected coverage by achievement) improving