HARVESTING FARMLAND: AN ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE USE OF LARGE-SCALE LAND ACQUISITIONS AS A FOOD SECURITY STRATEGY by Charles Eric Hintz A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Global Security Studies Baltimore, Maryland August 2014 © 2014 Charles Eric Hintz All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT This thesis analyzes factors contributing to the recent trend of nations purchasing, leasing, or otherwise acquiring agricultural land abroad as a food production resource. These “large-scale land acquisitions” (LSLAs) have been studied extensively; however, scholars have mainly focused on LSLAs’ effects on “host” nations, providing only cursory explanations of “investor” nations’ motivations. This thesis corrects this deficiency in the literature by investigating drivers underlying the selection of a LSLA food security strategy. It conducts controlled comparisons of four case study nations, China, South Korea, India, and Saudi Arabia, which are diverse in terms of size, economics, politics, and other factors, but which all pursue food security LSLAs; it seeks to establish whether these nations share specific motivations for LSLAs, despite their differences, to determine the extent to which nations employing such a strategy, in general, share such motives. The first two chapters compare direct food security drivers of LSLAs in these states; the third examines if these nations share economic paradigms, to test if such paradigms act as an “underlying” stimulus of LSLAs. Regarding food security drivers, this thesis finds that all four face long-term rising and diversifying food product demand, limited production capacity, and reliance on food imports combined with a national preference for self-sufficiency; thus, LSLAs seem to be a method of reducing import dependence and securing access to food. Regarding economic outlook, this thesis finds that all four share an illiberal paradigm, consistent with these states’ aversion to markets. Given significant projected growth in world food demand, these findings could aid in predicting which nations might pursue such a policy in the future. Advisors/Readers: Dr. Christine Parthemore, Dr. Brent Blackwelder ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis would not be possible without the invaluable support of my Johns Hopkins “Research and Thesis” course professors, specifically, Sarah B. Clark, Alexander Rosenberg, and Benjamin Ginsberg; I would especially like to thank Professor Clark, who was instrumental in the initial development of this thesis’ topic, direction, and methodology, and who has provided continual support and advice throughout the research process. Further, I wish to express profound gratitude to my thesis advisors, Dr. Christine Parthemore and Dr. Brent Blackwelder, for having taken the time to review this thesis and provide valuable feedback to refine and improve my research. Additionally, I would like to thank my parents, Charles B. Hintz and Kristine I. Hintz, for their unending encouragement as well as for their willingness to read countless drafts of this work. Finally, I cannot express how grateful I am to Ms. Hannah Rose Bainter, who has been vital throughout this entire process and has wholeheartedly supported all of my academic and professional endeavors. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract .............................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iii Introduction ........................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1 ..........................................................................................................................11 Introduction ....................................................................................................................11 Literature Review ...........................................................................................................12 Theory and Hypothesis ..................................................................................................23 Methodology ..................................................................................................................24 Results ............................................................................................................................27 Discussion ......................................................................................................................47 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................53 Chapter 2 ..........................................................................................................................55 Introduction ....................................................................................................................55 Literature Review ...........................................................................................................56 Theory and Hypothesis ..................................................................................................67 Methodology ..................................................................................................................68 Results ............................................................................................................................72 Discussion ......................................................................................................................98 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................104 Chapter 3 ........................................................................................................................106 Introduction ..................................................................................................................106 Literature Review .........................................................................................................107 Theory and Hypothesis ................................................................................................117 Methodology ................................................................................................................118 Results ..........................................................................................................................120 Discussion ....................................................................................................................147 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................152 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................155 References .......................................................................................................................166 Appendices ...................................................................................................................166 Bibliography ................................................................................................................190 Curriculum Vita .............................................................................................................211 iv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Tables Appendix 1: Land Matrix Data – China Agricultural LSLA Deals .............................166 Appendix 2: Land Matrix Data – South Korea Agricultural LSLA Deals ..................178 Appendix 3: Land Matrix Data – Saudi Arabia Agricultural LSLA Deals .................180 Appendix 4: Land Matrix Data – India Agricultural LSLA Deals ..............................183 Appendix 5: Land Matrix Data – Top LSLA-Pursuing Nations by Number of Deals 188 Appendix 6: FAOSTAT Data – Example Crop Import Dependency Ratios ...............189 Figures Figure 1: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization – Food Price Index 1990-2013 .....31 v INTRODUCTION Ensuring access to and production of food is a major objective of nations, and national food security has been a critical challenge for states throughout history. Food security is a vital aspect of national security because if states fail to feed their populations, the outcomes are often revolutionary; one key example of this risk, according to many observers, is the fact that often “underlying the very real political aspirations” motivating the Arab Spring uprisings “was outrage at skyrocketing food prices.”1 Consequently, states are willing to go to great lengths to secure access to agricultural resources and other essential products demanded by their populations, frequently investing heavily in a diverse array of domestic and international food security strategies and agricultural production tactics. The challenges of food security were especially highlighted during the Global Food Crisis of 2007-2008, when food prices spiked considerably around the world; since then, prices have remained both high and volatile (see Figure 1).2 Largely concurrent with this crisis, a “new” strategy for securing access to agricultural resources rose to prominence, the purchase, lease, or acquisition by nations of large tracts of agricultural land in foreign countries, called “large-scale land acquisitions” (LSLAs). This strategy has been pursued by a highly diverse