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Coal Project Europe's Next Strategic Supply of Thermal Coal

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Coal Project Europe's Next Strategic Supply of Thermal Coal ASX: PDZ ABN 23 008 677 852 Lublin Coal Project Europe's Next Strategic Supply of Thermal Coal October 2013 For personal use only Prairie Downs Metals Limited – Lublin Coal Project Prairie Downs Metals Limited (ASX:PDZ) is an ASX listed company developing the Lublin Coal Project in Poland’s world class Lublin Coal basin Lublin Coal Project Map Strategic resource of high quality thermal coal - Inferred Coal Resource Estimate of 1.6 billion tonnes Existing rail and port infrastructure providing access to Polish and European coal markets Adjacent to the world-class Bogdanka (WSE:LWB) longwall coal mine - one of the lowest unit operating costs in Europe Commenced confirmatory drilling program with the Scoping Study being completed by Wardell Armstrong International Ltd Experienced board and management team with strong coal For personal use only expertise and experience in Poland 2 Coal – Fundamental to Europe’s Energy Matrix During 2012, Europe1 consumed over 770mt of coal for power generation, of which 265mt was thermal coal. Thermal coal imports amounted to 172mt, accounting for 22% of globally traded thermal coal… European Thermal Coal Imports & Production by Country (2012) 40 33 3 509 mt 52 Finland1 2 Thermal Coal Production (2012) 15 Thermal Coal Imports (2012) 10 9 Germany1 2 1 UK 2 8 Netherlands1 2 3 172 mt 1 12 Poland1 2 Czech1 2 93 mt 2 Republic 2 France1 2 Austria1 2 Romania1 2 20 19 4 19 2 2 Lignite Thermal Thermal ProductionFor personal use only Production Imports Portugal1 2 Bulgaria1 2 3 7 Total Europe Lignite and Turkey1 2 Thermal Coal Consumption Italy1 2 (2012) Spain1 2 Source: Euracoal (2012) 1 Europe is the EU plus Turkey 3 Europe – Declining Domestic Coal Production Europe’s hard coal production continues to decline as viable coal resources deplete European Hard Coal1 Production (million tonnes) 400 Rest of EU 365mt (total) Czech Republic 350 Germany 300 295mt United Kingdom Poland 250 227mt 200 189mt 155mt 150 127mt 100 50 0 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Source: Eurostat . Traditional coal basins in Germany, UK, Czech Republic and Poland that have been operating for hundreds of years are becoming increasingly technically challenging and costly . Hard coal production from Poland’s primary coal producing basin, the Upper Silesian basin, has declined by over 20mtpa in the last decade and declined 4.2% over the last twelve months For personal use only . UK hard coal production fell to a record low of 17mt in 2012, with further curtailment in 2013 due to mine closures (Daw Mill Colliery closed in March 2013 and represents a 1.6mtpa production loss) . Germany is expected to close all hard coal mines by 2018 due to the ending of government subsidies, resulting in 12mtpa of hard coal production to be replaced by imports 1 Hard Coal includes Thermal and Metallurgical Coal 4 Increasing Reliance on Imported Thermal Coal Imports from Russia, Colombia, the US and others are fundamental for European thermal coal supply… USA Russia Export to EU (2012) 35.8mt Export to EU (2012) 60.3mt % Total of EU Imports 19% % Total of EU Imports 33% Calorific Value (Kcal/kg) 6,676 Calorific Value (Kcal/kg) 6,177 Cash Cost (2013e) Cash Cost (2013e) US$132/t th US$100/t (85th percentile, FOB) (85 percentile, FOB) Russia Colombia Indonesia Export to EU (2012) 58.7mt Export to EU (2012) 9.4mt % Total of EU Imports 32% % Total of EU Imports 5% USA Calorific Value (Kcal/kg) 5,945 Calorific Value (Kcal/kg) 5,150 Cash Cost (2013e) Cash Cost (2013e) US$60/t US$64/t (85th percentile, FOB) (85th percentile, FOB) Indonesia South Africa Australia Export to EU (2012) 13.8mt Colombia Export to EU (2012) 2.0mt % Total of EU Imports 8% % Total of EU Imports 1% For personal use only Calorific Value (Kcal/kg) 6,141 Australia Calorific Value (Kcal/kg) 6,008 Cash Cost (2013e) South Africa Cash Cost (2013e) US$62/t US$87/t (85th percentile, FOB) (85th percentile, FOB) …security of supply, coal quality and price are key considerations for power generators Source: Deutsche Bank May 2013 Report; Euracoal (2012) 5 Coal – Poland’s Primary Energy Source Poland remains heavily reliant on coal for energy production . Poland produces some 90% of its electricity from coal Poland Electricity Generation Mix (2011) 2% 6% . Lignite production from Poland amounted to 64mt in 2012 2% . Polish hard coal production totalled 78mt in 2012, of which 52mt was thermal coal 90% . Poland imported 12.7mt of thermal coal in 2011, and 7.5mt in 2012 Coal Oil Gas Other (incl. Renewables) . Coal imports to Poland are mainly transported by rail from Russia, via Belarus and Ukraine, with some imports via the Baltic seaports For personal use only Source: EIA & Euracoal 6 Poland - A Favourable Investment Jurisdiction Poland is a safe, low risk mining jurisdiction with an excellent fiscal regime . Poland is a first world country having gone through significant reform since the Belchatow Power Station (4,440MW) in Poland end of communism in 1989 . Over US$120 billion in foreign direct investment into Poland since 2004 . Poland has one of the most attractive fiscal regimes globally for coal mining: Corporate Tax: 19% Royalty: 4PLN/t (~US$1.2/t) Coal Terminal at Gdansk, Poland . Poland is the largest hard coal producer in Europe and is a key supplier of coal to its domestic market and neighbors . Poland has a highly skilled coal mining workforce, with 110,000 people still directly employed in the industry For personal use only . Availability and low cost of skilled labour make Poland an attractive jurisdiction to develop coal projects Source: Eurostat and Polish Ministry of Treasury 7 Upper Silesian and Lublin Coal Basin – Coal Production The Lublin Coal Basin represents a low cost alternative to traditional Upper Silesian production . Polish coal production has historically been supplied from the Upper and Upper Silesian and Lublin Basin Coal Production Lower Silesian Basins ₋ supply from the region is decreasing due to a decline in viable reserves ₋ technically challenging due to geological and mining conditions leading to high operating costs . The Lublin Coal Basin is relatively new having been explored in the 1960’s- 70’s, with the first mine being commissioned in 1982 ₋ favourable geology allows for low cost mining Upper Silesia1 Lublin Years in Production 250 30 No. Active Coal Mines 29 1 Annual Production 82 mt (FY13E) 8.6mt (FY13E), 11.5mt (FY15E) 3 3 Seam Methane Content +20m per tonne 2m per tonne Outburst/Rockburst High to Severe Low hazard SeamFor personal use only Dip 0-45 deg 2 deg Coal seam variability High Low Typical Block Longwall 150m wide and 1.2km long 300m wide and up to 5km long Dimensions Note: 1 – Includes both Polish and Czech mining operations in the Upper Silesian basin Source: Company reports and PDZ analysis 8 The Lublin Coal Basin hosts a World Class Mine “The Bogdanka mine ranks with the best deep coal mines in the world in terms of the absolute performance of its longwalls and development headings”, SRK Mining Consultants Bogdanka Coal Mine US$112/t $US110/t US$43/t Bogdanka JSW SA New World Resources (WSE: LWB) (WSE: JSW) (LN: NWR) Q2 2013 Unit Mining Cash Costs (Source: Company Filings, 3.15 PLN/USD, 0.74 EUR/USD) . BogdankaFor personal use only is the blueprint for development and operation in the Lublin coal basin - it has been operational since 1982 – Bogdanka is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE: LWB) with FY13E production of 8.6mt (FY15E: 11.5mt), and has an enterprise value of ~US$1.3 Billion (17 Oct 13) and a dividend gross yield of approximately 4.5% (2012) . Bogdanka supplies domestic and international power utilities with major customers including; Elektrownia Kozienice SA - ENEA SA Group, GDF Suez Energia SA, PGNIG Termika and Ostrołęka Power Plant. 9 Next Generation Longwall Plow Technology World record setting plow technology deployed in the Lublin Coal Basin… Caterpillar Plow, AFC and Hydraulic Chocks Operating Longwall Plow Face . Recommended technology for seam heights of 0.6m to 2.3m as compared to a traditional shearer longwall For personal use only . The Lublin Coal Basin provides ideal conditions for high productivity longwall plow operations with a world record set by Bogdanka of 27,485 tonnes in one day from a single face and daily average production of 12,680 tonnes (equivalent to 4mtpa ROM production from a single longwall unit) Source: Caterpillar website (Not Prairie’s equipment) 10 Poland’s Established Coal Infrastructure Strategic choice for low cost European coal supply with an established rail system and export ports For personal use only 11 Power Plant Delivered Costs Coal supply chain comparison demonstrates a competitive advantage for the Lublin Basin Port- Power Plant FOR Mine Mine-Port S/Pile & FOB CIF ARA Unload & Shipping Power Delivered Cost Rail Port Load US$86/t S/Pile US$78/t Plant Rail Cost ~US$43/t ~US$30/t ~US$5/t ~US$8/t ~US$5/t ~US$10/t ~US$101/t Russian Coal Supply Chain Source: Based on E.on 2012 “Seaborne steam coal market dynamics and future production costs” and WoodMac Port- Power Plant FOR Mine Power . Lublin Coal Basin has a distinct advantage to European coal fired Cost Delivered Plant Rail power plants over internationally imported coal as there is no Cost requirement for seaborne freight, insurance and import discharge ~US$43/t ~US$10/t costs ~US$53/t For personal use only Lublin Coal Supply Chain 12 Targeting First Quartile Cash Costs New projects in the Lublin Coal Basin have strong potential to be in the lowest quartile of the cost curve for thermal coal delivered into Europe… Russia API 2 (Oct 2013) Lublin Coal Basin1 Colombia For personal use only 2013 CFR ARA Energy Adjusted Cash Costs Curve (Source: Wood Mackenzie - Total Cash Costs plus Freight to ARA, energy adjusted to 6,322kcal/kg; modified by PDZ to include Bogdanka FOR cash cost (2Q2013) energy adjusted for standard 22MJ product) .
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