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Zona Ana Power Utilities podwyższona Tuesday, May 29, 2018 | update podtrzymana Power Utilities obniżona Poland, Czech Republic Eight Reasons Why You Should Buy Polish Utilities WIG-Energy 2,305 Polish energy stocks have sunk in recent months, and we see this as a WIG 58,330 wonderful buying opportunity. This view may go against all evidence to 2018E P/E 7.7x the contrary, including Poland’s current energy policy, which relies 2018E EV/EBITDA 4.7x heavily on investment by state companies, alongside an expected sustained rise in prices of emission allowances (EUAs), and a sector-wide dividend freeze, but we can give eight solid arguments to support our Sector Outlook position. First of all (1), a factor which we believe can create major value European electricity prices are trading at all-time for utility shareholders is the strong rebound in free cash flow expected highs after an upturn spurred by recovering prices of in the next five years, with positive effects on equity value. It is also carbon allowances and rallying energy commodities. worth noting the recent push against Poland’s nuclear project (2), which Prices on Poland are following the trend, with power contracts for next-year deliveries having crossed has no unanimous backing within the government ranks. Further, there is PLN 210/MWh. The strengthening fundamentals for potential for positive surprises if the new capacity market works better generations are expected to trigger upward earnings than assumed. Moreover, on a surprisingly sharp upturn in power prices revisions, though it is important to remember that (4), the clean-dark spreads of power generators, in particular vertically- due to hedging the current price movements will not integrated and new coal-based installations, have widened to much more boost margins until 2020. sustainable levels. At the same time, renewable energy producers are benefitting from rising prices of green certificates (5), and distributors WIG-ENERGY vs. WIG may see WACC raised next year (6). Note that the WIG-ENERGY index at the moment is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio 20% below its 3-year 4,000 average, showing a 50% discount to Stoxx Utilities (7). Last but not least, Polish utilities offer sound financial positions (8) evidenced by the pts fact that if they were to offer a 5% dividend yield their net debt would not have to rise more than 5% (0.1x EBITDA). 3,500 European utilities rise on higher energy prices Electricity prices in Germany have rebounded nearly 30% from their February 3,000 lows, driven by a 13% increase in the prices of coal, combined with a 25% surge in the prices of natural gas and a 60% upturn in the prices of EUAs, triggered by the planned reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Accordingly, even as treasury yields widen, the EURO STOXX Utilities index has outperformed the 2,500 broad market by a margin, gaining 6%. WIGENE Polish utilities yield to political pressure... WIG The WIG-ENERGY index is down 25% year to date, crumbling under the 2,000 uncertainty created by the Polish Energy Ministry and its various public plans for very capital-intensive projects, including a nuclear power station, that, unfortunately, do not make much sense from a business point of view, and look Feb-18 Aug-17 Nov-17 May-18 potentially prejudicial to the interests of the minority shareholders of state-owned May-17 companies. The Polish power sector has become a toxic asset in the eyes of investors, who at the moment tend to overreact on any hint of bad news fir the sector while mostly ignoring any good news. ...even as fundamentals strengthen Were it not for politics, Polish utilities would be moving firmly upward right now, Target Price Rating buoyed by improving market conditions, including the upward-trending power Stock new old new old prices on the local market, and regulatory changes which boost the earnings outlook of renewable energy producers and distributors. Our belief is reflected in CEZ* 458.38 449.51 sell sell the fact that our 2019 earnings forecasts for the sector are 7% higher than the ENA 12.62 11.78 buy buy consensus forecasts. It is also important to note that, as the end of a long investment cycle in the power sector nears, Polish generators can be expected to ENG 15.58 14.91 buy buy achieve much stronger cash flows in the next five years, with the OCF surplus set PGE 13.60 12.89 buy buy to increase to a projected PLN +11bn in 2018-2022 from PLN -8bn in 2014-2017. TPE 2.76 2.73 buy hold New capacity mechanisms Current Target Upside/ Stock Expectations as to the positive effects of the capacity market and new Price Price Downside mechanisms for cogeneration and renewable capacity payments rare low creating CEZ* 551.00 458.38 -16.8% room for positive surprises. Capacity auctions in our view can generate an extra PLN 1.2bn a year for the power sector. On top of that, free cash flows over the ENA 9.57 12.62 +31.9% next decade might be boosted by investment incentives in the form of free EUA ENG 9.00 15.58 +73.1% allocations budgeted at EUR 4-5 billion. PGE 9.28 13.60 +46.5% P/E P/CE EV/EBITDA P/B TPE 2.01 2.76 +37.5% Company 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2017 *CZK prices, otherwise all PLN prices CEZ 20.8 19.3 6.9 6.6 8.5 8.1 1.2 Enea 4.6 3.5 1.8 1.6 4.0 3.5 0.3 Analyst: Energa 4.7 4.5 2.0 2.0 3.4 3.3 0.4 PGE 5.7 5.6 2.7 2.6 3.5 3.3 0.4 Kamil Kliszcz +48 22 438 24 02 Tauron 2.7 3.3 1.2 1.2 3.8 4.3 0.2 [email protected] Contents 1. Market Update .......................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Central Europe –Germany & Czech Republic ......................................................... 3 1.2. ETS Reform Rundown ........................................................................................ 4 1.3. Polish Market Update ......................................................................................... 5 2. Expectations For the Capacity Market .......................................................................... 8 3. Status of Ostrołęka C Project ...................................................................................... 11 4. The Polish Nuclear Project .......................................................................................... 11 5. The Czech Nuclear Project .......................................................................................... 12 6. Cogeneration Incentives ............................................................................................. 12 7. Enea's Coal Gasification Project ................................................................................... 13 8. Coal Prices Bounce Back ............................................................................................. 14 9. Distribution Update .................................................................................................... 16 10. Renewables Update ................................................................................................... 17 10.1. Green Certificates .............................................................................................. 17 10.2. Changes in Renewables Legislation ...................................................................... 18 10.3. Revival of Offshore Wind Projects ........................................................................ 18 10.4. PGE's Takeover Bid On Polenergia ....................................................................... 19 11. Trade Profits Normalize .............................................................................................. 19 12. Energa's Court Fight With Wind Farms ......................................................................... 21 13. Improving FCF .......................................................................................................... 21 14. SOTP Analysis ........................................................................................................... 21 15. Performance ............................................................................................................. 22 16. Relative Valuation Charts ........................................................................................... 26 17. mBank Forecasts vs. Analysts' Consensus .................................................................... 28 18. CEZ Valuation Update ................................................................................................ 29 19. Enea Valuation Update ............................................................................................... 36 20. Energa Valuation Update ............................................................................................ 43 21. PGE Valuation Update ................................................................................................ 50 22. Tauron Valuation Update ............................................................................................ 57 2 Market Update There were no major developments last year when it comes to CEE cross-border trade, with Germany and the Czech Republic both remaining net exporters. Germany's Central Europe – Germany & Czech trade balance was stable in 2017 as higher local demand Republic soaked up all extra production. The planned split of the Germany/Austria pricing zone in October 2018 can shift the German electricity consumption continued to increase balance in the coming years, but it is hard to predict to what for the third year straight in 2017, but at 0.8% after an extent. 0.1% rise in 2016 the recovery from the pullback of 2011-
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