Quantitative Methods (Geography 441) Name: ______SPSS 9: Time Series Dr

Quantitative Methods (Geography 441) Name: ______SPSS 9: Time Series Dr. Paul Marr

Please complete the following exercise using the data below and include a sheet showing your work and results. This sheet MUST be typed using the exercise answer format.

Below are the dates and atmospheric CO2 readings from the Mona Loa observatory, Hawaii for the years 1981 - 1985. Please decompose these data into seasonal, trend, and error components using a span of 12. Using these decomposed data, please develop the following graphics: 1. A line graph of the original CO2 concentration over the 5-year period. 2. A line graph of the seasonal component over the 5-year period. 3. A line graph of the CO2 trend over the 5-year period. 4. A bar graph of the error over the 5-year period. Finally, determine if there is a significant trend in CO2 concentrations and predict the trend concentration in Dec 1990. Remember there are 3155760 seconds per year…

Double points will be earned if you can add this value and produce a new line graph accurately showing your prediction within the trend series.

Date CO2 Date CO2 Date CO2 Date CO2 Date CO2 Jan 1981 339.36 Jan 1982 340.92 Jan 1983 341.64 Jan 1984 344.05 Jan 1985 345.25 Feb 1981 340.51 Feb 1982 341.69 Feb 1983 342.87 Feb 1984 344.77 Feb 1985 346.06 Mar 1981 341.57 Mar 1982 342.85 Mar 1983 343.59 Mar 1984 345.46 Mar 1985 347.66 Apr 1981 342.56 Apr 1982 343.92 Apr 1983 345.25 Apr 1984 346.77 Apr 1985 348.20 May 1981 343.01 May 1982 344.67 May 1983 345.96 May 1984 347.55 May 1985 348.92 Jun 1981 342.49 Jun 1982 343.78 Jun 1983 345.52 Jun 1984 346.98 Jun 1985 348.40 Jul 1981 340.68 Jul 1982 342.23 Jul 1983 344.15 Jul 1984 345.55 Jul 1985 346.65 Aug 1981 338.49 Aug 1982 340.11 Aug 1983 342.25 Aug 1984 343.20 Aug 1985 344.85 Sep 1981 336.92 Sep 1982 338.32 Sep 1983 340.17 Sep 1984 341.35 Sep 1985 343.20 Oct 1981 337.12 Oct 1982 338.39 Oct 1983 340.30 Oct 1984 341.68 Oct 1985 343.08 Nov 1981 338.59 Nov 1982 339.48 Nov 1983 341.53 Nov 1984 343.06 Nov 1985 344.40 Dec 1981 339.90 Dec 1982 340.88 Dec 1983 343.07 Dec 1984 344.54 Dec 1985 345.82