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4 Stocks I'm Flying High with for the Long Haul

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4 Stocks I'm Flying High with for the Long Haul Monday 31 May 2021 4 stocks I’m flying high with for the long haul “Picking & sticking” is a good investment strategy, provided what you select is a quality company in an industry that has growth ahead. Of course, picking is the easy bit. Sticking and being patient is the more challenging part of this money-making play. Here are 4 picks that are also 4 I’m sticking with, until good sense tells me otherwise. Sincerely, Peter Switzer Inside this Issue 02 4 stocks I’m flying high with for the long haul 4 stocks I’m flying high with for the long haul by Peter Switzer 04 Woolworths & Endeavour Drinks – what you need to know and do Endeavour demerger by Paul Rickard 08 Five $5 stocks Five $5 stocks 4 stocks I’m flying high by James Dunn 12 My “HOT” stock: GrainCorp (GNC) with for the long haul GrainCorp (GNC) by Peter Switzer by Maureen Jordan 02 13 Buy, Hold, Sell – What the Brokers Say 9 upgrades, 8 downgrades by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before Switzer Super Report is published by Switzer Financial Group Pty Ltd AFSL No. 286 531 acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the Level 4, 10 Spring Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000 individual's objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek T: 1300 794 893 F: (02) 9222 1456 appropriate professional advice. 4 stocks I’m flying high with for the long haul by Peter Switzer “Picking & sticking” is a good investment strategy, for the patient “picker & sticker”? provided what you select is a quality company in an industry that has growth ahead. Of course, picking is Update on our flying kangaroo the easy bit. Sticking and being patient is the more challenging part of this money-making play. Let’s start with the flying kangaroo first, which has been up after the Coronavirus crash of the market but Personally, I’m ‘walking the talk’ with A2Milk, which has lost a bit recently. This chart looks promising, in a is a quality company (arguably the best of breed nice uptrend despite some down days. And at $4.77 globally) but needs international travel to get back to today against being over $7 before the pandemic normal. It also would benefit from Canberra and suggests further rises should be expected when Beijing getting along better, but once again that will vaccines have been delivered locally and we’re flying be a waiting game. As Rod Stewart’s ex-wife, Kiwi overseas by early next year. Rachel Hunter, once told us about the miracles that lay ahead for our hair with Pantene shampoo: “It Qantas (QAN) won’t happen overnight but it will happen.” “Picking & sticking” with troubled travel stocks has worked for the likes of Qantas, Webjet, Corporate Travel Management and Flight Centre, but is it time to put more into your investment chests ahead of another leg up? I started to ponder this question after reading a CNBC The experts surveyed by FNArena see an 18% rise story about the comeback of travel businesses and ahead but given the new version of Virgin Australia travel stocks as the US gets vaccinated. The chart since delisting, I’d argue the rises over the next two below looks at how the share price of US airline years could be better than that. Southwest Airlines (LUV) has spiked since jabbing escalated in February this year. Here’s the Webjet story Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) Webjet was smashed by COVID-19, hitting lows around $2.50. It has since rebounded over 100% to $5.16 but this company too should benefit from the normalisation of international and even domestic travel. So seeing a $7 price within two years doesn’t seem to be a big call. If that happened, it would be a 40% rise or 20% per annum for a “picker & sticker”. The analysts see a 4.3% rise in the short term. But I So what’s happening here? And could our slow don’t care about the short term with these stocks. vaccination programme create a buying opportunity Monday 31 May 2021 02 Webjet (WEB) My thoughts Surprised by Corporate Travel Management The experts see 9.8% upside but, over time, you’d (CTD)! expect better results and share prices. However, I have two takes on Flight Centre. On one hand, its One stock that has surprised me with its resilience business is challenged by the new age and digital has been Corporate Travel Management (CTD). This disruption. But against that, I’ve always been stock really has rebounded stronger than I expected, surprised at how good Graham ‘Skroo’ Turner is at given the disruption to business travel and the threat reinventing his travel business with a fantastic brand of stay-at-home star business rivals, such as Zoom, name. I bet we won’t see a $60 share price but could Microsoft Teams and Skype. it be a $20 stock? Yep! And making $5 on a $15 outlay is a 33% gain, which I could easily take on any This was a $21 stock before the virus cruelled travel investment, even over a two or three-year period. but it’s now a $21 stock again! That said, in 2018 before it copped a lot of negative press (which was If you allow time into your “flying the friendly skies” largely because a hedge fund was trying to make investment equation, you could see some great money out of press releases riddled with negative numbers from these travel-related stocks. That’s my takes on the business), it was a $30 stock. call and I’m sticking with it, unless good reasons tell me not to. Corporate Travel Management (CTD) Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regard to your circumstances. Not surprisingly, the analysts think the company has 0.5% upside but, over time, I’m sure it will gain from the coming back of overseas travel. What about Flight Centre? Finally to Flight Centre (FLT), which has fallen from share price grace. It’s now around $15 but was $40 before the Coronavirus crash. And in 2018, it was a $61 stock! Flight Centre (FLT) Monday 31 May 2021 03 Woolworths & Endeavour Drinks – what you need to know and do by Paul Rickard On 24 June, there will be more than 350,000 new According to the Woolworths Chairman, this is about: shareholders in Endeavour Group Limited. That’s the “enhancing shareholder value through a greater company that is being spun out of Woolworths via a focus on each business’ core customers offering and demerger, comprising the number 1 and number 2 growth opportunities”. The advantages cited in the retail drink brands in Dan Murphy’s and BWS, and demerger booklet include: the largest hotel network in Australia. Here’s what you need to know about the demerger and potentially, Simplified businesses and increased focus for what to do. Woolworths Group and Endeavour Drinks; Endeavour Group will be able to pursue its Firstly, it’s important to understand that demergers own strategy and growth agenda; have a pretty good track record in Australia. Names Opportunity for Woolworths and Endeavour to such as Coles, Treasury Wine Estates, BlueScope, realise the benefits of the strategic partnership Orora and S32 were all the result of demergers. But agreements; there have also been a couple of duds – OneSteel Stronger brand clarity for Woolworths and that became Arrium and went under, and what is now Endeavour; and called Virgin Money UK, which was spun out of NAB Existing and new shareholders will have and is just getting back to its first day trading price of flexibility to choose their level of investment in $4.01. Woolworths and Endeavour. The argument goes that a refreshed management While these are all valid, particularly the latter, the team, free from the controls and shackles of the “real” reason is that Woolies wants to exit the poker former head office, with its own balance sheet and machine business. As the owner of 12,400 electronic dedicated focus, is able to thrive. And in the main, gaming (poker machine) licences, Woolworths is share market performance backs this up. increasingly off the radar for many fund managers due to ESG concerns. It is the biggest operator in Typically, demergers take a while to shine. Because Australia, and its ownership of poker machines has there is a weight of sellers wanting to get out when become a real thorn in its side. the stock first lists and there is no compelling reason to buy, the market price flounders for a few months. What do I get? But eventually, institutions start to see value in the stock, the management team performs, and the share You will get 1 share in Endeavour Group for each price rises. More on this later – but the key take for Woolworths share held. investors watching the share price it is usually “down before up”. Because Endeavour Group was formed out of the combination of the Woolworths retail drinks business Now to the demerger. and the hotels business known as the ALH Group (which was part owned by Woolworths and the Bruce Why is Woolworths getting rid of Endeavour Mathieson Group), the Bruce Mathieson Group Group? (BMG) will own 14.6% of Endeavour.
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