DS-16-163 Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan

GREATER AND HAMILTON AREA

AUGUST 2016 ABOUT AND THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN

As the regional transportation agency for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), Metrolinx is committed to planning, building and operating transportation that supports a high quality of life, a thriving, sustainable and protected environment and a strong, prosperous and competitive economy.

Under provincial legislation, Metrolinx has a mandate to provide leadership in the co-ordination, planning, financing, development and implementation of an integrated, multi-modal transportation network that conforms with the policies of Ontario’s Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and complies with other provincial transportation policies and plans in the regional transportation plan area. Metrolinx is also responsible for the operation of the regional transit system, GO Transit, the PRESTO electronic fare payment system and the UP Express airport rail link.

Metrolinx works closely with provincial ministries and the region’s municipalities and transit agencies to implement the Regional Transportation Plan, and engages with civic, academic, business and community partners to realize the collective vision for the region’s transportation system, as set out in the Regional Transportation Plan.

As Metrolinx embarks on a review of – the first Regional Transportation Plan – we are marking a decade of championing multi-modal, connected and integrated mobility solutions in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. The next Regional Transportation Plan will be made available in mid-2017. Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 4 WHAT DO YOU THINK? 46 1 OPENING UP THE CONVERSATION 6 Discussion Questions 47 1.1 A Dynamic Region 8 APPENDIX 1: PROFILE OF THE REGION 48 1.2 Thinking as One Region 11 Regional Growth Context 49 2 TEN YEARS OF PROGRESS 12 Population Growth in the GTHA 49 2.1 The Big Move: Meeting the Challenge 13 Employment Growth in the GTHA 50 2.2 Expansion of the Rapid Transit System 16 Travel Demand 53 3 THE NEXT PLAN 20 Making Transportation and Land Use Work Together 55 3.1 A Shared Vision: Updating the Vision, Goals and Objectives 21 Performance of the Region’s Transportation System 57 Building the Plan 24 What modes do we use? 57 3.2 Leveraging the Transit Investment 25 How much do we drive? 60 GO Regional Express Rail: A Critical Catalyst 25 What is the impact on the climate? 61 Continuing Transit Expansion 27 How long does it take to get to work? 64 People-Centred Transit 28 Is transit available and does it provide access? 64 An Integrated Fare System 30 Is transit accessible to those who need it Mobility Hubs 31 the most? 67 3.3 A Connected and Aligned Region 32 How safe are our roads? 71 Supporting Active Transportation 32 Does freight move safely and efficiently? 72 Creating Safer, More Complete Streets 35 APPENDIX 2: Background Research and 74 Managing Congestion 35 Analysis to Support the RTP Review Moving Urban Freight 37 Reducing the Demand for Travel 37 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 76 Designing for All Modes 38 LIST OF FIGURES 78 Sustainable Funding 40 REFERENCES 79 3.4 The Next Generation of Mobility 42 Emerging New Mobility Options 42 Embracing New Mobility Opportunities 44 BUILDING MOMENTUM Executive Since 2008, great progress has been made, with 94% of The Big Move actions and policies completed/continuous or in progress. Together with Metrolinx, provincial ministries, Summary municipalities, transit agencies, and stakeholders have implemented a wide range of Big Move transportation A review of the GTHA’s first Regional improvements. These efforts are transforming, and will continue to transform, mobility in the Greater Transportation Plan (RTP), The Big Move, is Toronto and Hamilton Area. Some examples include: underway. The review of the RTP provides an opportunity to take stock of and build on the foundation of Big Move projects. It supports The GO Regional Express Rail program is being us working together as a region toward the implemented across the region, bringing two-way all-day completion of an updated RTP in 2017. rapid transit service to the region. The region’s first Light Rail Transit line is under construction along the Eglinton Avenue corridor.

Bus Rapid Transit is operating and continuing to be The RTP guides the work being done to transform the expanded in York Region and . way people and goods move in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Its Vision, Goals and Objectives provide UP Express has reached its one-year service milestone, a blueprint to support decision-making by municipalities, connecting riders between and Lester B. agencies, and the provincial government. Developed and Pearson International Airport. implemented jointly with a diverse range of partners and The Toronto-York-Spadina Subway Extension is under stakeholders, the RTP sets out how the transportation construction – the first subway line to extend outside the system contributes to a high quality-of-life, thriving, City of Toronto. sustainable and protected environment and a strong, prosperous and competitive economy, now and Strategies to improve goods movement have been into the future. introduced across the region.

This discussion paper presents an opportunity for the Ontario’s #CycleON strategy is supporting municipalities public, and all partners and stakeholders in planning, in expanding cycling infrastructure and programs. building and implementing the region’s transportation Hamilton and Toronto have introduced system, to reflect on how well it is working today in the bike-sharing programs. context of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, and on its performance in the future. Municipalities have integrated mobility hubs into official plans and transportation master plans.

Transit agencies and municipalities are improving specialized transit coordination and delivery to facilitate cross-boundary travel.

The Triplinx regional transportation app and the PRESTO smart card are making getting around the region easier.

2 THE REGION’S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: KEY FACTS1

566 64 2 km of rapid transit GO train stations million PRESTO in the GTHA customers

Includes GO Service Area and Ottawa.

668 69.5 300,000+ million transit million GO transit daily Union Station trips taken in annual boardings transit users the GTHA (2015) annually

553 5 3.46 km of provincial municipal million cars owned highways expressways in the GTHA within the GTHA

Don Valley Parkway, Gardiner Expressway, Includes 407 ETR (107km) Allen Road, Red Hill Valley Parkway, Lincoln M. Alexander Parkway

33 3 13.6 carpool international million daily trips lots in the airports made by GTHA GTHA residents Lester B. Pearson International Airport, John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport, Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport

1 2 3 ferry freight intermodal major ports terminal terminals

Toronto Brampton, Vaughan Toronto, Hamilton, Oshawa

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 3 KEEPING THE RTP. Civic, business, academic and MOMENTUM GOING neighbourhood organizations have weighed in, contributing to a vibrant Keeping this momentum going, dialogue about the future of one of the leveraging current investments and world’s most liveable urban regions. continuing to work as a region by incorporating new and projected Since the release of The Big Move, growth into our planning can drive the planning context has continued the transportation system to keep to shift. This discussion paper up with and manage growth in a reflects on past changes and how sustainable way. Progress is being we can incorporate them into current made and every level of government and future efforts. Climate change has recognized the need to make and new mobility, for example, are significant investments in the region’s altering the way we plan, build and transportation system. The provincial operate transportation. There are new 2014 Moving Ontario Forward plan is technologies, such as real-time trip an unparalleled provincial commitment planning and ride-sharing applications to invest $31.5B over ten years that need to be built into planning for for transit, transportation and other mobility in the region. The region is priority infrastructure projects across moving out of a “catch-up” era and the province including approximately focusing on collaborative planning $16B for priority rapid transit projects to better optimize investments, in the GTHA. Public awareness of the reflecting the perspective and growing mobility challenge and the need for experience of this region to create a timely solutions is being voiced across regional transportation system that the region, creating the momentum works into the future. that will help shape the updated

WORKING TOGETHER The scope and timing of the Regional Transportation Plan review addresses the requirements of The Metrolinx Act, 2006 and aligns with the Province of Ontario’s review of The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, which continues to call for compact development that makes the best use of land in the region, and an effective and integrated transportation system to keep people and goods moving sustainably.

The two plans work together to direct the region’s population and employment growth to align with the transportation system. The updated RTP will work in concert with the efforts of the Province to manage growth and address climate change to 2041, another ten years beyond The Big Move’s original long-range planning horizon.

4 WHAT IS INCLUDED IN THE This review of the RTP recognizes The updated RTP will be developed DISCUSSION PAPER? the need for on-going investment in from a new baseline and incorporate transportation infrastructure to support emerging best practices and We are re-igniting a conversation growth and to update the RTP from transportation innovations, aligned about a shared vision for the region’s the foundation provided by The Big with current provincial plans, policies transportation system that looks at Move. The emphasis on increasing and guidelines. where we have been, what we need transit mode share remains, to be to do and the way to get there. accomplished through solutions that Throughout the paper we ask you to complement rapid transit investments, take a look at transportation planning and address diverse market needs. in a regional context and to start This discussion paper proposes thinking about the links between land updating the original Big Move use and transportation. Opportunities vision, goals and objectives, as well for transit, managing congestion, as exploring: supporting active transportation, • Opportunities to leverage the creating safer more complete streets committed transit investments; and moving freight are some examples of topics that need your input to • Opportunities to connect and align shape how our communities grow the transportation system in the and how we will move around the region; and region in the future. • Opportunities for exploring and incorporating new mobility.

WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU

This discussion paper is meant to spark a conversation and groups across the region. We need and welcome across the region. At the end of the paper you will find your feedback, experiences and participation in the the section called “What Do You Think?” intended process of updating the Regional Transportation Plan. to guide consideration of the Regional Transportation This will help us collectively as we continue to improve Plan’s review, and we want to hear from you. The connections in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region regional plan draws on the expertise of individuals over the next 25 years.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 5 1 Opening Up The Conversation

A coordinated and integrated regional transportation plan is essential to address the challenges residents of this region face. The Regional Transportation Plan (The Big Move) is being updated with input from a wide range of partners, stakeholders and the general public. This is the beginning of our year-long conversation to determine the next Regional Transportation Plan. MANDATE TO REVIEW. The review of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) is a requirement of the Metrolinx Act, 2006, which states that the RTP must be reviewed at least every ten years.

This discussion paper outlines Metrolinx’s review of the Regional Transportation Plan. It includes an assessment of progress since 2008 and a look ahead to opportunities and challenges to inform the future update of the RTP. It invites readers to answer key questions as part of a public conversation about what the next plan should try to accomplish, and how.

Using the input received for this discussion paper, Metrolinx and its municipal partners will work towards the next RTP. A draft updated Regional Transportation Plan is planned for public comment in mid-2017, with the final RTP to be completed later that year. An Implementation Plan will follow, to be developed jointly with municipalities, identifying detailed processes, the roles of various partners and stakeholders, and a range of investment strategy tools to put the RTP into action.

Many technical and academic research reports have informed this review and will inform the development of the next RTP. More information is available at www.metrolinx.com/theplan.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 7 1.1 A Dynamic THE GREATER TORONTO AND Transit. Today, 79% of trips are made HAMILTON AREA (GTHA) is a by car.3 The transportation system Region growing and prosperous metropolitan also provides not only for people to region. Its diverse and talented move but also goods movement – by population, dynamic economy and truck, rail and bicycle. The regional robust institutions have helped it transportation system functions across become an increasingly attractive many jurisdictions (see Figure 1). place to live, work and invest. The Together, the connectivity between the GTHA is one of the fastest-growing parts of the system has a large impact regions in North America, expected on how easily people and goods can to add approximately 110,000 new travel in this region. Many different residents every year from 2011 to partners and stakeholders 2041, joining the 7 million people who are involved in how each part of are already here.2 The need to keep the system functions independently the region moving over the long-term and how the different parts function – to get people and goods where they together as a coordinated, integrated need to go – is a complex task that transportation network. involves several levels of government, THE BIG MOVE is the current service providers, businesses, 25-year multi-modal Regional communities, institutions and all of us Transportation Plan (RTP) for the as individuals. Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area OUR LIVES ARE INCREASINGLY (GTHA), adopted in 2008. It is the MORE COMPLEX. More and first regional transportation plan more the demands of our lives covering the entire GTHA. The plan require a greater variety of trips was developed to conform to the and destinations, and the region’s Growth Plan for the Greater Golden transportation system needs to be Horseshoe 2006 (Growth Plan)i able to grow and evolve to meet our which together with the Greenbelt ever-changing needs. This means Plan sets out the Province’s long term we need a more multi-modal system, vision for where and how the region providing a range of options for should grow. It has been the basis of people to get around, including driving prioritizing investment and initiatives alone or carpooling, cycling, walking, over the last ten years. and taking local transit or taking GO

THE REGION: KEY FACTS

8,242km2 9 30 size of the GTHA municiple transit municipalities agencies

1.5 1 7.2 i times the size of An updated proposed Growth Plan for the Greater regional transit agency million people (2015) Golden Horseshoe (2016) has been released by Prince Edward Island the Ontario Growth Secretariat for public comment and feedback.

8 Figure 1: Map of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including the GTHA and the GO Service Area

Simcoe

Barrie

Kawartha Lakes Peterborough

Georgina Brock

Dufferin East Gwillimbury

Newmarket Peterborough Uxbridge Wellington King Aurora Whitchurch- Scugog Caledon Stouffville Richmond Hill Pickering Oshawa Vaughan Markham Whitby Clarington Ajax Brampton Northumberland Halton Guelph Hills Toronto Waterloo Mississauga Milton

Oakville

Burlington Lake Ontario

Hamilton Brantford Brant Greater Golden Horseshoe Hamilton Toronto

Halton York Haldimand Niagara Peel Durham Rest of GO Rest of Greater Service Area Golden Horseshoe

GO Transit Service will be added to Brantford in Fall 2016.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 9 PROGRESS. Since 2008, SO MUCH HAS CHANGED. NEW HORIZON YEAR – 2041. the Province, Metrolinx, GTHA The world in 2016 is different than it As the ten-year anniversary of The Big municipalities and transit agencies was in 2008. Many of the factors that Move approaches, the current review have invested historic levels of funding, influence transportation needs and of Ontario’s plans for the Greater as well as energy and experience, to solutions have changed – economic Toronto and Hamilton Area and for the support the growth and mobility of the trends, development patterns, Greater Golden Horseshoe will use a region. The region is now beginning to municipal priorities, funding gaps and planning horizon of 2041 rather than experience the impact of investments opportunities, energy and climate 2031. That represents an additional in rapid transit infrastructure. Many change concerns, income distribution, decade of population and employment projects from The Big Move have technology and new business growth to be served by the region’s received committed funding, are being models – and this will lead to different planned transportation system. built or are complete, allowing for a objectives and responses. Regional planning initiatives will be reset of the foundation for the next aligned, taking into consideration the NEW WAYS OF DOING THINGS. 25 years, to 2041. The next Regional same horizon year. The transportation “toolbox” has Transportation Plan will be recalibrated expanded over the last decade. to reflect the accomplishments of There are more, and better, ways regional and local area municipalities, to meet the region’s goals – such transit agencies, Metrolinx, the as the Triplinx online travel planner, Province and others to implement the PRESTO electronic fare card, The Big Move. We now know so new cycling facility designs, and much more about the region and the best practice guidelines for creating transportation system, which creates mobility hubs and transit- and an even better position from which to freight-supportive communities. develop the next plan.

THE REGION’S TRANSIT SYSTEM

Local Transit in the GTHA is Regional transit is provided provided by nine agencies: the by GO Transit trains and buses Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), in the GTHA, and beyond. Seven the Hamilton Street Railway; GO Train lines radiating across Oakville Transit, Burlington Transit the region from Union Station and Milton Transit in Halton operate in weekday peak periods, Region; Brampton Transit and with some off-peak and weekend Mississauga Transit in Peel service, and multiple GO Bus Region; York Region Transit/Viva routes also extend across the in York Region; and Durham regional service area. Region Transit. UP Express airport rail service provides access between Union Station rail terminal and Lester B. Pearson International Airport.

10 1.2 Thinking as Toronto and Hamilton Area. The improving the commuting experience, Province is undertaking a coordinated limiting emissions and intensifying One Region review of the four provincial land-use development. The Ontario Ministry of plans that cover the Greater Golden Transportation has also commenced Horseshoe area, including the Growth a process to develop a long-term Plan, the Greenbelt Plan, the Oak multi-modal transportation plan for the Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, broader Greater Golden Horseshoe Metrolinx was created in 2006 to and the Niagara Escarpment Plan. region, that will build ensure the region’s transportation Many of the proposed amendments on the RTP and the Growth Plan, system would function as a whole – to the four plans are aimed at and look ahead at the transportation greater than just the sum of its parts building more complete communities, challenges and opportunities for – to meet current and future needs of mitigating the impacts of climate 2051 and beyond. the growing population. change, and better linking transit to DELIVERING ON THE PLAN’S where people live and work. People travel across municipal PROMISE. Since the creation of boundaries because many activities The proposed amendments to the RTP, the Province of Ontario has of our daily lives – work, higher the Growth Plan, released in May supported Metrolinx in delivering on education, leisure, recreation and 2016, provide an even stronger the plan. The Moving Ontario Forward health care – are organized within framework for a more compact and program of over $31.5 billion for the the broader region. Municipal transit-supportive region. Higher next 10 years is of historic proportion governments have transportation and intensification rates (60%), higher and is an investment that many land use plans that support local goals designated greenfield area targets stakeholders have identified as being and objectives in moving people and (80 people and jobs per ha) and long overdue. goods within their boundaries, but major transit station area targets, Ontario climate change initiatives people’s trips and the movement of as well as strengthened policies complement both the policy goods – to meet daily needs for work, around settlement area expansion, directions, and the infrastructure school, business and other activities will collectively provide significant investments to take the region even – take place within a single economic support for optimizing provincial transit further beyond the 25 year horizon of region. To function effectively to meet investments. the RTP and the Growth Plan. diverse transportation needs, the BLUEPRINT FOR A REGIONAL transportation system and its key Ontario climate change initiatives TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM. In elements (e.g. transit, road and freight complement policy directions and 2008 The Big Move – the first RTP systems) need overall coordination infrastructure investments in order to for the region – was established and integration to deliver maximum take the region beyond the 25-year by the Metrolinx Board of elected benefits for all. horizon of the RTP and the Growth representatives to guide and advance Plan. A VISION FOR GROWTH IN shared goals and objectives for THIS REGION. Through the mobility in the GTHA. Today, the RTP Together with numerous local Provincial Policy Statement and the helps us to create, recognize and act supporting actions by municipalities, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden on the opportunities that come from the private sector, and the not-for­ Horseshoe (Growth Plan), the thinking, planning and moving as one profit sector, we are increasingly Province of Ontario has committed region. As a guiding document, the moving forward with a more coherent to a vision of a vibrant, compact and RTP describes what the Province, and integrated vision of a sustainable transit-supportive region. The Growth Metrolinx and municipalities should future for the region. Plan sets the vision for the region address to support optimal mobility and its urban structure, and Metrolinx and access within the region. It and municipalities are required to outlines the policies, infrastructure conform to the Growth Plan and work and services required to meet shared to implement this vision in the Greater goals like managing congestion,

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 11 2 Ten Years of Progress

This section describes progress made in implementing The Big Move’s strategies and actions. It begins with an overview of progress to-date, followed by a description of the many committed projects in the Regional Transportation Plan that are now either completed, continous or in progress.

12 2.1 The Big Move: PUTTING THE TEN STRATEGIES IN MOTION. While putting major Meeting the rapid transit investments in motion, Challenge Metrolinx and its many partners have also been implementing numerous THE BIG MOVE set out ten Today, progress is represented by the projects and initiatives that reflect the strategies to achieve its Vision, Goals fact that 94% of the plan’s actions full breadth of the ten strategies in The and Objectives (See Figure 2). The and supporting policies are complete/ Big Move. Together, these initiatives plan sets out a bold shift in thinking continuous or in progress (see are having an impact on mobility in about all modes of transportation: the Figure 2).4 (See The Big Move the region. The Big Move Baseline shift from a focus on moving vehicles Priority Action and Supporting Policy Monitoring Report (2013) provides a to prioritizing the movement of people, technical paper for full list.) comprehensive review of progress on proposing a change in perspective all of the actions and policies in The about how our system is designed Big Move. and how it functions.

Figure 2: Progress on Implementation

The Status* of The Big Move’s 92 actions and Policies 31.5% 62.0% 6.5%

Complete / Continuous In Progress To be Initiated

* Based on The Big Move Baseline Monitoring Report, Appendix B: 7+62+31+C Inventory of Initiatives, 2013 (with updates) Ten Strategies of The Big Move

Create an ambitious Build a comprehensive Enhance and expand Improve the efficiency Create a customer-first regional rapid of the road and transportation demand transportation system transit network active transportation highway network management program

Build communities that Improve goods movement Implement an integrated Commit to continuous are pedestrian, cycling and Plan for universal access within the GTHA and with transit fare system transit-supportive adjacent regions improvement

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 13 Strategy #1 BUILD A COMPREHENSIVE REGIONAL RAPID TRANSIT NETWORK

THE • Metrolinx is introducing GO Regional Express Rail and BIG launched UP Express MOVE • The City of Toronto, Metrolinx and their partners are revitalizing Union Station • Metrolinx is continuing construction on the Eglinton Crosstown LRT in Toronto, and has provided the GO rail extension to Kitchener-Waterloo • Mississauga’s MiWay is completing a bus rapid transit system EXAMPLES OF THE BIG MOVE IN ACTION • York Region is upgrading its bus system with separated rapidways, under VivaNext

Strategy #2 Strategy #3 ENHANCE AND EXPAND ACTIVE IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF TRANSPORTATION THE ROAD AND HIGHWAY NETWORK

• Metrolinx added walking and cycling bridges and • MTO is building new carpool parking lots, high-occupancy underpasses across major highways, rail lines and waterways vehicle lanes on 400-series highways, and extensions to Highways 410, 404, 407 and 427 • Public transit agencies added bike racks to all GTHA transit buses • Metrolinx introduced priority parking for carpool users at 49 GO Transit stations • Ontario introduced the provincial #CycleON strategy • Municipalities added capacity to arterial roads across • Municipalities provided new walking and cycling facilities – the region from trails to painted or separated bicycle lanes – and updates to active transportation plans • Hamilton and Toronto, launched their bike-sharing programs

Strategy #4 Strategy #5 CREATE AN AMBITIOUS CREATE A CUSTOMER-FIRST TRANSPORTATION DEMAND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT PROGRAM

• Municipalities and Metrolinx expanded the Smart Commute • Metrolinx launched the Triplinx regional travel planning tool workplace program to provide TDM programming for • Toronto, Hamilton, Brampton, Durham and York Region transit approximately 330 members (with 720,000 employees), and agencies and Metrolinx introduced real-time information for launched many initiatives to support active school travel transit services • Metrolinx supported the Call-One joint paratransit booking centre during the 2015 PanAm Games • Metrolinx and local transit providers are developing a seamless network wayfinding program

14 Strategy #7 Strategy #6 BUILD COMMUNITIES THAT IMPLEMENT AN INTEGRATED ARE PEDESTRIAN, CYCLING AND TRANSIT FARE SYSTEM TRANSIT-SUPPORTIVE

• Metrolinx, UP Express and all transit agencies (except Milton) • Metrolinx introduced Mobility Hub Guidelines and the have adopted the PRESTO fare card system GO Transit Rail Parking and Station Access Plan (now being updated in the context of GO RER) • Metrolinx and GTHA transit providers outside Toronto have fare integration agreements providing discounted travel on • MTO published the Transit-Supportive Guidelines municipal transit to-and-from GO services • Municipalities have integrated mobility hubs into official plans and transportation master plans • Metrolinx and GTHA municipalities have initiated parking studies, such as Mississauga’s parking strategy for the City Centre

Strategy #9 Strategy #8 IMPROVE GOODS MOVEMENT PLAN FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS WITHIN THE GTHA AND WITH ADJACENT REGIONS

• Metrolinx established the regional Accessibility Advisory • Metrolinx undertook the GTHA Urban Freight Study, Committee comprised primarily of people with disabilities, established the multi-sectoral GTHA Urban Freight Forum to provide input on the accessibility elements of a broad and an urban goods movement data framework range of Metrolinx projects • Ontario published the Freight-Supportive Guidelines • Municipalities and transit agencies are improving • GTHA regions are taking a strategic approach to goods specialized transit coordination and delivery including movement, with a range of studies and plans, such as the establishing a Memorandum of Understanding that Region of Peel’s Goods Movement Strategic Plan recognizes eligibility between specialized transit service providers to facilitate cross-boundary travel

Strategy #10 COMMIT TO CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

• Metrolinx has undertaken new research into a variety of transportation questions and supported local initiatives across the region, such as Milton’s dynamic transit pilot project • Collaborative partnerships have been established with the University of Toronto’s Transportation Modelling Group, as well as with local and regional municipalities, non­ governmental organizations and academic institutions

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 15 2.2 Expansion of the One of the most dramatic shifts helping to manage congestion. The that followed The Big Move was GO RER concept was set out in The Rapid Transit System the expansion of the region’s rapid Big Move and is continuing to be transit system, starting with the early implemented through the Province’s successes of the 2008/2009 “Quick Moving Ontario Forward plan. Wins” program. The priority projects Today, GO RER is creating new identified by the RTP garnered the potential across the region, with “First Wave” of investments that a view to improving convenience, totalled over $16 billion. Through the unlocking development potential, and Moving Ontario Forward program in making employment centres more 2015, an additional $15.5 billion has accessible with 15-minute frequent been proposed to advance the “Next train services. Rush-hour GO rail Wave” projects in the GTHA. services will also be expanded in Figure 3 presents a map of rapid order to make connections to other transit in 2008, and Figure 4 presents transit systems more convenient a map of funded GTHA rapid transit and to reduce customers’ reliance projects expected to be completed by on schedules. GO RER will provide 2025, as well as “Next Wave” projects four times the number of trips in off- that are being advanced through peak periods, such as evenings and further planning and design. weekends, and twice the number of trips during peak rush-hour periods. A HUGE STEP FORWARD: Upgrading most of the GO rail system GO REGIONAL EXPRESS RAIL: from diesel to electric engines on The impact of the RTP reverberated core areas of the network will enable in 2015 when the Province of Ontario faster travel speeds, more frequent announced its commitment to faster, service, and reduced operating costs more frequent, GO rail service with and emissions. electrification on core segments of the network including UP Express. Every area of the GTHA will see This initiative will transform the GO improvements with GO RER. GO rail network from a largely rush-hour ridership is anticipated to almost service into an all-day, two-way rapid double – an increase to approximately transit network, increasing transit 127 million customers – within five ridership, reducing trip times and years of completion.5

16 Figure 3: GTHA Rapid Transit Network in 2008

To Barrie South

YORK

DURHAM

PEEL

TORONTO

HALTON

1. 2. Regional Rapid Transit Infrastructure - 2008 3. Georgetown Line 4. Existing in 2008 5. 6. Rapid Transit 7. GO Rail 8. Bloor-Danforth Subway Peak Service 9. Yonge-University-Spadina Subway GO Rail 10. Sheppard Subway Off-Peak Service 11. Scarborough Rapid Transit HAMILTON

May 2016

Figure 4: GTHA Rapid Transit Network in 2025 (Funded and Completed Projects) and Projects under Development

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 17 (first Projects currently being segment opened 2014). This 18 planned, designed or built km corridor that parallels Highway (but not complete): 403 and Eglinton Avenue will allow Toronto-York Spadina Subway buses to run unhindered by general Extension (Planned opening traffic when fully completed, late 2017). This extension from connecting the TTC subway Downsview Station to Vaughan system, Mississauga City Centre Metropolitan Centre will be the first and employment hubs such as the subway line to extend outside of RTP QUICK WINS and Airport Corporate Centre. the City of Toronto. FIRST WAVE PROJECTS UP Express (Opened 2015). This Eglinton Crosstown LRT The first steps to implement direct rail link between Toronto (Planned opening 2021). This The Big Move included: Pearson International Airport and 19km route, with more than 10km Union Station offers 15-minute $740 million worth of “Quick underground, will carry riders frequency with stops at Weston Wins.” Completed projects include across Toronto from Weston Road and Bloor GO stations. an expansion of GO Transit’s bus to Kennedy subway station. and rail fleet, the acquisition of new GO Transit rail service Finch West LRT (Planned buses for municipal transit agencies, expansion (on-going). Multiple opening 2021). This 11km line will the introduction of the “DRT Pulse” projects to expand the extent, run from the Finch West subway enhanced bus service in Durham and quality and quantity of regional rail station now under construction at the addition of bike racks on every service as identified in The Big Keele Street to Humber College. bus in the GTHA. Move have been completed since 2008, including the introduction Sheppard East LRT (dates “First Wave” projects. The of hourly bi-directional mid­ to be determined). This line implementation of the rapid transit day service on the Kitchener will run almost 13km from Don network identified in The Big Move line between Union and Mount Mills subway station to east of began in earnest with the commitment Pleasant and the extension of the Morningside Avenue. of significant funding to a “First Lakeshore West line to the new Wave” of transit projects drawn from Scarborough Rapid Transit West Harbour station in Hamilton. the Plan’s list of Top Priority transit (dates to be determined). The The extension of the Richmond Hill projects. While several projects have funding for the Scarborough line to the new Gormley station been completed, many are currently Rapid Transit project identified in will open in late 2016. This GO in the planning or building phases of The Big Move in 2008 has been expansion has been supported implementation. reallocated to a replacement by upgrades to Canada’s busiest project led by the City of Toronto, transportation hub, Union Station, the extension of the Bloor Danforth as prioritized in 2008 as “Big Move Projects partially or fully subway. The Scarborough subway #3”. Completed and ongoing operational, since 2008: extension is currently in the work includes revitalization of the planning phase. York Region VivaNext rapidways train shed and switches as well (first major segment opened 2013). as expanded concourses, new This project includes more than 34 PATH connections, and a second km of dedicated express bus lanes subway platform intended on major roads including Highway 7, to accommodate a significant Yonge Street and Davis Drive. increase in passenger flow.

18 the day), will be introduced on options to the GTHA’s largest core areas of five lines: Lakeshore employment area, downtown East, Lakeshore West, Kitchener, Toronto, and relieve Yonge subway Barrie and Stouffville. UP Express line congestion. electrification will also be achieved Yonge North Subway Extension. through the GO RER program. This proposed extension from Finch Hurontario LRT (Planned opening Station in Toronto to Highway 7 in 2022). This 20-km service between Richmond Hill would be the second Port Credit and the Brampton subway extension reaching beyond RTP NEXT WAVE PROJECTS Gateway terminal at Steeles Avenue the City of Toronto, connecting A “Next Wave” of projects was will link four mobility hubs and to Viva BRT lines running to the initially identified in 2012, drawing support planned urban growth areas. north, west and east as well as the from the balance of The Big It will connect to the Mississauga Richmond Hill GO line. Move’s list of Top Priority projects. Transitway and planned Dundas BRT. This 40km The proposed scope of GO Street BRT as well as the Milton and east-west transit project would cross rail expansion would be further Lakeshore West GO lines. the western GTHA, connecting Brant enhanced following the provincial Hamilton LRT (Planned opening Street in the City of Burlington to government’s 2014 commitment to 2024). This project will run across Kipling subway station in Toronto. It GO Regional Express Rail. the lower portions of the City of would connect the Milton GO line, Projects with full funding Hamilton, connecting McMaster the Bloor-Danforth subway and the commitments include: University to Queenston Circle Hurontario LRT. through the city’s downtown core. GO Regional Express Rail Durham-Scarborough BRT. It will connect to West Harbour GO (Phased implementation 2014– This new line would run from the station as well as a future pedestrian 2024). The GO RER program is Scarborough Civic Centre in Toronto link to Hamilton GO Centre. a $13.5 billion capital investment to downtown Oshawa in Durham to transform the GO network from Region via Highway 2, connecting a commuter-oriented service to the downtown cores of Pickering, Additional Next Wave projects a comprehensive regional rapid Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa to one with planning and design transit option. Service levels on all another and offering Durham underway include: seven GO rail lines will expand and residents improved access to the electric service, (every 15 minutes or . This new rapid transit TTC rapid transit network. better in both directions throughout line would provide new access

The implementation of all NEXT WAVE GTHA jobs and residents within 800m of rapid transit Next Wave rapid transit projects has RAPID TRANSIT been forecasted to create up to: PROJECTS WILL

ENABLE MORE 2011 Rapid transit network 2031 Rapid transit network6 person-years PEOPLE TO of employment REACH JOBS 900,000 AND MEET 9% of residents 21% of residents and contribute up to OTHER DAILY NEEDS USING of jobs of jobs to Ontario’s economy7 TRANSIT. 19% 33% $130B

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 19 3 The Next Plan

The next Regional Transportation Plan will build on the foundation provided by The Big Move. This section explores the opportunities and challenges that have arisen since 2008. Some of these are outlined in the box on the next page. A SHARED REGIONAL VISION BRINGING ALL PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEMS TOGETHER By updating the Regional Transportation Plan’s Vision, Goals and Objectives. By expanding, improving and integrating the GTHA’s family of transit services.

MORE THAN JUST TRANSIT NEW MOBILITY

By improving the travel experience and cooperation By preparing for a potential transformation by better integrating active transportation, road of urban transportation, sparked by advances efficiency, congestion management, goods movement, in technology and business model innovation transportation demand management and supportive brought by new entrants to the land uses. transportation sector.

3.1 A Shared The aim of the review and update The key triple bottom line messages of the RTP Vision, Goals and found within the original Vision Vision: Updating Objectives is to: still hold in 2016 and have been the Vision, Goals left largely intact, with some minor • Ensure the Vision continues modifications. The 13 original Goals and Objectives to resonate with that of and 37 Objectives have been stakeholders; A STRATEGIC FOUNDATION. The consolidated into 6 Goals and 19 policies and actions in a long-range • Clarify the distinction Objectives in the proposed draft. transportation plan should be based on between the Vision, Goals Figure 5 illustrates the original and a strong conceptual foundation. In 2008, and Objectives; proposed RTP Goals. that foundation was set by municipal • Consolidate the 13 existing leaders, key stakeholders and the general Goals with a greater focus public. Now, as part of developing the on transportation; next RTP, Metrolinx has begun consulting in order to review and update The Big • Reduce redundancy between Move’s Vision, Goals and Objectives. the Goals and Objectives, and

• Better align the Objectives with existing or desired data, including the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) described in the The Big Move Baseline Monitoring Report (2013).

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 21 Proposed Updated Vision, Goals, and Objectives VISION “In 2041, the region’s integrated transportation system • Make it easy to choose modes of travel that will allow people to get around easily and will contribute to reduce our environmental footprint and contribute a high quality-of-life, a thriving, sustainable and protected to a thriving, sustainable and protected environment, and a prosperous and competitive economy. environment; and It will: • Connect people to jobs, move goods and deliver • Offer a variety of options for getting around reliably, services efficiently throughout the region, supporting a comfortably, conveniently and safely, contributing to a strong, prosperous and competitive economy.” high quality-of-life;

Figure 5: Original and Proposed Updated RTP Goals

ORIGINAL GOALS PROPOSED GOALS

A. Transportation Choices A. CONNECTIVITY, CONVENIENCE B. Comfort and Convenience (split) AND INTEGRATION

J. Multi-Modal Integration B. EQUITY AND ACCESSIBILITY K. Interconnectedness

B. Comfort and Convenience (split)

D. Safe and Secure Mobility C. HEALTH, COMFORT AND SAFETY

C. Active and Healthy Lifestyles

H. Foundation of an Attractive and Well-Planned Region D. A WELL-PLANNED REGION

F. A Smaller Carbon Footprint and Lower Greenhouse Gas Emmissions E. EXEMPLARY ENVIRONMENTAL G. Reduced Dependence on Non-Renewable Resources FOOTPRINT

I. Prosperity and Competitiveness

L. Efficiency and Effectiveness F. PROSPERITY AND COMPETITIVENESS E. Fairness and Transparency

M. Fiscal Sustainability

22 GOAL A: CONNECTIVITY, GOAL B: EQUITY AND GOAL C: HEALTH, CONVENIENCE ACCESSIBILITY COMFORT AND SAFETY AND INTEGRATION

OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES 1. People have appropriate, realistic 5. Transit offers affordable access to 7. Walking and cycling are attractive options to move easily and reliably jobs, services and major destinations, and realistic choices for most trips. from place to place. and is competitive for most trips. 8. Transit offers an attractive, 2. People have the information 6. Transit fleets and transportation high-quality user experience. they need to optimize their infrastructure, services and 9. People feel safe and secure when travel decisions. technology are accessible to users travelling, with continuous progress of all ages and abilities. 3. Transit services and fares are toward eliminating injuries and seamlessly integrated. deaths from transportation. 4. All transportation modes 10. Goods are moved safely are coordinated. and securely.

GOAL F: PROSPERITY GOAL D: A WELL- GOAL E: AN EXEMPLARY AND COMPETITIVENESS PLANNED REGION ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT OBJECTIVES 16. Travel times are predictable OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES and reasonable. 11. The transportation system supports 14. The transportation system is adaptive 17. The transportation system offers value compact and efficient development. and resilient to the stresses of a to users and governments by providing changing climate, uses resources 12. Integrated transportation and land economical, reliable and efficiently, and fits within the use planning reduces the need environmentally sustainable movement ecosystem’s capacity. for travel and encourages walking, of people and goods. cycling and taking transit. 15. The transportation system 18. Governments promote innovation in the contributes to the achievement of 13. Transit infrastructure and services transportation sector. provincial targets for greenhouse gas have the capacity to meet demand. emission reductions. 19. Sustainable, coordinated funding supports transportation operations, maintenance and expansion.

CROSS TOWN TRAVEL TIMES CUT IN MISSISSAUGA WITH BUS RAPID TRANSIT (BRT)

MISSISAUGA, PEEL REGION Upon full implementation in 2017, the BRT will serve 5 million riders annually, saving riders an average of between 15 and 18 minutes on a crosstown journey. It features heated waiting areas, WiFi, full accessibility, and multi-modal integration with bicycle lockers at each of its 12 stations.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 23 Building the Plan provincial and municipal partners, indicators. The evaluation criteria will stakeholders and the public; as well be both qualitative and quantitative, The updated Vision, Goals and as those that are generated internally and will be designed to capture Objectives will provide the foundation through Metrolinx’s research and changes that can positively influence for evaluating initiatives for the next development. In order to develop the travel outcomes (e.g. reduced journey Regional Transportation Plan. Just next regional plan, Metrolinx will apply times, improved transit access) or as The Big Move featured a series an initial screening to determine what quality-of-life (e.g. reduced emissions, of transportation projects, prioritized should proceed to the next step of improved safety or physical activity). to realize the Vision, Goals and the process and how they should An overview of the proposed Objectives, the next plan will feature be bundled with complementary approach is shown in Figure 6. both priority transportation projects programs or projects for the evaluation The RTP screening is applied at the and region-wide programs alongside phase. complementary initiatives. early stages of planning, whereas The projects, programs and policies the Metrolinx Business Case multi- This plan development process will will be assessed against their account framework and the Metrolinx inventory a wide variety of programs, expected contributions toward Project Prioritization Framework occur policies and projects, including achieving the Vision, Goals, and later in the planning process. All of projects that have not been initiated to Objectives of the RTP, and to these processes are used to assist date from The Big Move; ideas from advancing the RTP key performance Metrolinx in delivering results.

Figure 6: RTP Screening

24 3.2 Leveraging the Creating a more seamless regional GO Regional Express transit experience for customers Rail: A Critical Catalyst Transit Investment will present several challenges: The next RTP will need to reinforce the The Big Move’s approach to better integrating GO Transit with commitments and progress that the GO addressing the need to “catch up nine municipal transit systems (and Regional Express Rail is delivering by with growth” was to recommend a integrating the nine with each other); 2024. This program is now more than dramatic expansion of major transit providing better connections between just lines in The Big Move. The next infrastructure across the region. While transit and other modes; leveraging the RTP will need to reflect the specifics of considering the need for additional power of new mobility technologies and the committed program currently under infrastructure, the updated Regional business models while avoiding their construction and represent specific Transportation Plan will focus more on pitfalls; meeting public expectations, implications for addressing growth in the need to make the best possible and overcoming fiscal challenges. the region for an additional ten years use of the region’s transit assets A variety of strategies are needed to out, to 2041.8 and maximize the return on prior address the different transit markets investments. This section discusses in the region. A range of options exist NEW AND EXISTING STATIONS. As a number of ways in which Metrolinx depending on conditions in any given part of GO RER, Metrolinx is proposing and its partners can do this, thereby market area. For example, areas with several new station locations that will making transit and other modes slower growth and lower densities add to the 64 existing GO stations, an even more valuable and integral need different approaches from pending funding confirmations. The next part of daily life for millions of the areas with higher growth and higher RTP will further support development region’s residents. densities. Some options – like shared of GO stations as important hubs for daily activity, and not simply arrival and The next RTP will recognize the mobility – may have the greatest departure points. Increasing commercial need to attract new riders while also potential to address gaps in an existing and residential densities, in line with investing in those who are already low growth area with low transit mode the proposed Growth Plan, around using transit today, providing them share, while the biggest impact in a station areas and addressing GO with greater access, frequency, high growth, high transit mode share station parking lots and facilities will be reliability, speed, affordability, comfort area may be made by enhancing an important aspect for the systems and convenience. local transit service, or by combining enhanced local service with other success. Since 2008, parking at GO options. However, no option needs to stations has grown by 19,000 spaces be considered in isolation from others to a total of 72,000 spaces system- (see Figure 7). wide, making Metrolinx the largest parking provider in North America.

DURHAM DESIGNATES BUS-ONLY LANES

AJAX, DURHAM REGION Durham Region’s first bus-only lanes opened in the Town of Ajax along 1.4km of Highway 2 in 2014. The street redevelopment included cycle lanes along this main corridor.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 25 Figure 7: Transit Solutions for Different GTHA Markets Figure 7: Potential Transit Solutions for Different Areas in the GTHA

URBAN & EMERGING HIGH GROWTH GROWING Improve first-mile/last-mile Increase capacity of existing services More frequent services connections to rapid transit (e.g. higher frequency, larger vehicles) (e.g. establishment/expansion of frequent grid-network) Road pricing and More rapid/higher parking pricing order transit More rapid services (e.g. higher speeds, fewer stops) (e.g. new express bus service) Transit pricing (e.g. peak/off-peak fares) Stronger frequent transit network More transit connections

between major trip generators (e.g. new regional bus connections)

FARE AND LOW TRANSIT MODE SHARE SERVICE HIGH TRANSIT MODE SHARE INTEGRATION STABLE & URBAN & SUBURBAN STABLE Demand-responsive transit Transit priority measures or partnerships with new (e.g. queue jump lanes, signal priority, mobility providers reserved lanes on arterial roads, or (e.g. rideshare or ride- HOV/HOT lanes on freeways) matching applications)

Basic transit service that provides connectivity to key nodes (e.g. community transit services)

LOW GROWTH

BRAMPTON TRANSIT GETS PEOPLE MOVING

BRAMPTON, PEEL REGION Since its launch in September 2010, Brampton Transit’s Züm has increased transit ridership by increasing service levels, providing state- of-the art buses, infrastructure improvements, and customer-focused technologies. Transit priority signals and bus lanes help Züm buses to be reliable. Brampton Transit’s ridership has increased 72% from 12.3 million riders in 2009 (prior to Züm) to 21.2 million riders in 2015.

26 ALL MODE ACCESS TO Continuing Transit well-aligned with existing rapid transit STATIONS. Convenient station Expansion lines, or with future rapid transit or access for pedestrians, cyclists, GO RER corridors. The Growth Plan transit customers, drivers and car­ CREATING CONNECTIVITY. identifies and sets policies for Urban poolers is a key to making GO RER In considering what future rapid transit Growth Centres and Major Transit service a success. While parking at projects are needed in the GTHA, the Station Areas to align density and GO stations will remain important for next RTP will take as its starting point transportation. More specifically, the many communities across the region, The Big Move’s many completed/ proposed Growth Plan has policies in Metrolinx is also working with local continuous, in progress or to be the following areas: transit providers and municipalities initiated projects (see Chapter 2). It • Sets out a vision for regional to make it easier to reach stations by will then consider what the remaining growth, with a strong focus other modes, to reduce the reliance gaps and additional needs are for on intensification along nodes on more parking spaces at GO transit capacity to service regional and corridors served by transit, stations as ridership grows with GO growth to 2041, ten years beyond and promoting transit as a first RER service enhancements. That The Big Move’s planning horizon of priority for moving people. is, to optimize the investment in GO 2031. In general, the next plan will RER and maximize potential ridership, focus on additions to the rapid transit • Strengthens policies around it will be necessary to increase the network by improving its reach where complete communities, sets station access transit mode share. needs are identified (e.g. through density targets for major An important part of achieving this minor extensions), connectivity transit station areas, identifies goal will be providing bus facilities could be improved (e.g. through the priority corridors (which align at GO stations, and transit priority addition of “missing links” between with committed and funded measures on and off the station sites. different corridors and strengthening projects), includes policies to In addition, it will involve working connections to GO RER), or by improve the design of with transit agencies to adjust local servicing emerging corridors with transit stations and station transit services to match GO RER high transit ridership potential (e.g. areas and promotes transit service levels, to provide convenient, strengthening the GO bus network to service integration. effective transfers for passengers complement GO RER). • Includes employment policies travelling in both directions throughout RE-ENFORCING THE GROWTH that seek to better connect the day, and with municipalities to PLAN. Figure 8 shows areas in the jobs and transit, strengthens support travel behaviour change with GTHA that were dense enough (i.e. transit connections to key trip programming, campaigns, awareness having at least 50 residents plus jobs generators and office parks, and support. Innovation will also per hectare) to support cost-effective and includes strengthened need to be encouraged to develop transit service delivery as of 2011 (in TDM policies. new, attractive and cost-effective on- dark green), and development areas demand services to stations. that were not transit-supportive in • Introduces strategic growth 2011 but will be by 2031 (in lightest areas, frequent transit, active green). New, sufficiently dense transportation and complete development areas are generally streets terminology.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 27 Figure 8: Existing and Future Transit Supportive Areas, GTHA (2011 and 2031) 9

People-Centred Transit platforms. The streamlining of agencies are working to provide real- cross-boundary transit trips, which time transit schedule information to OFFERING A MORE today are complicated by different their customers. Metrolinx’s traveller INTEGRATED AND INTUITIVE routes, schedules, fares and hours information system, Triplinx, now TRANSIT EXPERIENCE. The of services between adjacent offers GTHA-wide transit trip planning next Regional Transportation Plan communities, will help to advance this assistance, and over time will be will emphasize the key role of the goal. Taking transit across boundaries enhanced to offer fare calculations, GTHA’s nine local transit systems should be as seamless as driving bike share information and real-time in providing service to support GO across boundaries. next arrival schedules. RER and other rapid transit services. Over time, the goal of offering FOCUSING ON CUSTOMER Metrolinx Design Excellence is transit users a consistent, familiar NEEDS. A customer-centered working to advance good design in experience regardless of where approach as part of transit planning order to build ridership and improve they travel in the region will become and service decision-making (e.g. fare the customer experience. It integrates even more important. As in The Big systems, schedule information and trip design thinking into all significant Move, transit systems are adopting planning) supports efforts to increase Metrolinx capital investments common approaches to planning ridership through infrastructure and at an early stage, broadening and delivering service – from the service investments. Many transit the organization’s focus beyond criteria used to define frequent agencies are adopting customer engineering and infrastructure delivery transit networks, to common transfer charters with measurable objectives toward fostering constructive city policies and customer information for customer service, and reporting building across the region. Areas of on their progress. More transit focus include architecture, landscape

28 Figure 9: Areas of Opportunity to Expand Frequent Transit Service Anchored by GO RER 10

architecture, urban design, public stations across the region. In addition, 10 minute minimum bus and streetcar realm and customer experience. by the end of 2016, all but one of the service on major routes. Increasing the GTHA transit agencies will use the frequency of transit service on a grid Metrolinx is also renovating a number PRESTO electronic fare card that system serves local trips better and of GO stations to improve safety and enables integrated payment and fare can build capacity and attractiveness comfort, such as adding lighting structures, in order to simplify the in a “virtuous cycle”, attracting more and heated shelters. Metrolinx also payment system for customers. riders and justifying additional service. has a new back-up power standard A regional FTN would benefit from for stations and facilities in the event EXPANDING THE GRID consistent practices (e.g. priority of power outages. Establishing OF FREQUENT TRANSIT measures, service standards and safety-enhancing features to increase NETWORKS. Transit systems marketing) across transit systems customers’ sense of personal across the GTHA are focusing on to deliver a level of service that is security is also important to complementing their downtown- consistently aligned with transit understand and incorporate into focused or GO station-focused supportive densities across the region. customer-centered planning.11 radial networks with frequent transit networks (FTNs) that offer more There are several areas outside Metrolinx is also pursuing frequent transit service (generally Toronto that have densities supportive opportunities to provide additional every 10 minutes or less) on direct, of frequent transit services that could amenities and services at GO grid-based routes anchored by major be anchored by connections to GO stations to improve the customer hubs including GO and rapid transit RER, as shown in Figure 9. Numerous experience. For instance, the GO- stations. In 2015 the TTC introduced municipalities in the GTHA have Zipcar partnership, launched in 2014, a Frequent Transit Network – a grid of implemented planning efforts and has already expanded to thirteen

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 29 analysis to designate new frequent the focus to moving as many people As well, additional travel time – transit network lines in their as possible (rather than vehicles) obstacles arise from the historically Official Plans. would give priority to transit vehicles, independent operations of GO Transit resulting in more efficient operations, and the GTHA’s nine municipal PRESERVING AND IMPROVING higher speeds, greater reliability, and transit systems. The growth in transit CONNECTIVITY TO KEY ultimately, increased ridership. use across boundaries has created DESTINATIONS. One advantage demand for a more connected, of a frequent transit network is that Transit priority measures include the integrated user experience. Transit it can service multiple commercial creation of reserved transit lanes on fare integration can lead to more and employment areas, increasing arterials and expressways, transit competitive transit options and an access to jobs and services for priority signals and queue jump effectively expanded transit network, residents throughout the region. It lanes. Many of the highest-frequency, and be a transformative step for can also involve community-based highest-demand transit routes across transit in the region. transportation services, an important the GTHA (e.g. those operating on component to improving connectivity grid-based frequent transit networks) Since 2008, the emergence of the in low-density communities. With a would likely return the greatest value PRESTO electronic fare card and focus on meeting the transportation from a concerted effort to give buses payment system has provided a needs of a specific population(s), priority in mixed traffic situations. strong foundation and opportunity community transportation also has the to comprehensively re-think regional potential to play a growing role with transit fare structures. It provides the emergence of flexible, demand- An Integrated convenience to customers while responsive approaches to delivering Fare System enabling integrated payment and fare transportation services. structures. In the future, PRESTO will A TRANSFORMATIVE continue to offer the primary electronic MOVING PEOPLE, NOT JUST OPPORTUNITY. The vast majority fare payment system for the region VEHICLES. A conventional objective of trips on public transit (other and provide a regional platform for of road operations is to move as many than GO Transit) across municipal integrated fares. It will also develop motor vehicles as possible, regardless boundaries are far from seamless, its technology and products to of how many people they carry. This and discourage additional customers. efficiently allow for more convenience, results in all vehicles being given equal Co-fare arrangements that encourage flexibility and integration, such as the priority on roadways. In congested cross boundary transit use have ability for customers to use credit areas, this can lead to slow speeds, been in place between GO Transit and debit cards for tapping onto the low reliability and higher operating and local operators for many years. PRESTO system. costs for transit, as transit vehicles The exception remains between TTC (buses and streetcars) are reduced to services and other transit systems AN INTEGRATED, HARMONIZED moving at the speed of traffic. Shifting currently requiring a second fare. APPROACH TO FARES. The existing approach to fares in the region is complex, and a new solution requires planning and collaboration to support the development of transit TORONTO IMPROVES SURFACE TRANSIT services between municipalities. Metrolinx is addressing this challenge for the first time on a system-wide TORONTO basis, developing a modelling platform The Toronto Transit Commission is adding 50 new buses that will serve 24 that is tailored to the GTHA’s unique of the city’s busiest bus routes during peak hours to reduce crowding. In circumstances. Different regional 2015, the TTC launched its Frequent Transit Network. All streetcar routes fare structures are being analyzed in and 52 bus routes now constitute a 10-minute-or-better service network. consultation with municipalities and transit agencies. This investigation

30 Figure 10: Mobility Hubs Designated in The Big Move Figure 10: Mobility Hubs Designated by The Big Move

Source: Metrolinx Mobility Hub Guidelines, 2011. will help to develop a potential vision address issues of fare concessions transportation come together, and for transit fares in the region that (e.g. discounts for seniors, students), where an emphasis is needed on will consider short-, medium- and fare products (e.g. weekend passes, serving the “first mile” and “last mile” long-term opportunities. family rates) and fare price. Issues of transit trips, and on supporting of equity and access will also be key higher-density transit-supportive An integrated, harmonized and considerations for the region. development. The creation of customer-first regional fare structure, successful mobility hubs requires with a consistent and fair approach Mobility Hubs effective land use and transportation to calculating and paying fares, has planning, committed private sector the potential to simplify the customer A COMPLEX CHALLENGE. partners, and strong stakeholder experience and transit system One major recommendation in The engagement and commitment to a operations. For many years GO Big Move was to create a system common vision. Transit has been operating with a of 51 “mobility hubs” (see Figure ACCELERATING ACTION. The co-fare agreement with all GTHA 10). A mobility hub is an area that next RTP offers an opportunity to local transit operators except the TTC. is a tangible demonstration of the review and refine the criteria for the Improved agreements between transit benefits of integrating land use and designation of mobility hubs, and agencies could minimize the barriers transportation. Each mobility hub to consider updates to the list of created by transfers. includes a major rapid transit station mobility hub locations in view of new in its immediate surroundings, and rapid transit plans or development Fare structure is foundational to an serves a critical function as the origin, activities. Ontario’s proposed Growth Plan amendments would prioritize integrated fare system, but in addition, destination, or transfer point for a integrated land use and transportation work will need to advance with significant number of trips. Each is planning in “strategic growth areas”, municipalities and the Province to also a place where different modes of including mobility hubs.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 31 3.3 A Connected Supporting Active While overall GTHA average cycling Transportation and walking mode shares have not and Aligned changed very much since 1991 Region CAPTURING MORE SHORT TRIPS. (see Figure 28 in Appendix 1), Cycling and walking are clean, healthy, there have been large increases for affordable, flexible and available to This section discusses several certain market segments, especially almost everyone from children to areas outside the realm of public within downtown Toronto. Cycling seniors. The Big Move emphasized transit services where the Regional trips in particular have increased active transportation for these reasons, Transportation Plan could offer substantially between 2006 and and public support for cycling and stronger guidance in response to 2011, with the number of trips almost walking has grown since 2008. region-wide opportunities. Most doubling and cycling mode shares of these are within the jurisdiction There is potential to increase walking increasing substantially for many of municipal governments, rather and cycling for short trips in the GTHA. market segments, as shown in Figure than Metrolinx. Many are also being Residents make many short trips, but 31 in Appendix 1. Overall, active considered from the perspective of very few of these trips actually happen transportation is expected to increase broader, province-wide interests as by active transportation; Figure 11 slightly in most parts of the GTHA to part of the Ministry of Transportation’s shows GTHA mode share grouped by 2031, as shown in Figure long-term Greater Golden Horseshoe cycling potential (e.g. trips are less than 28 in Appendix 1. transportation plan now underway. 5 km long and not taken to pick-up/ IMPROVING ACTIVE Considering opportunities through a drop-off a passenger). Furthermore, one- TRANSPORTATION PLANS. regional lens will allow Metrolinx and its third of all car trips have the potential There are many reasons for low 12 partners to identify ways of developing to be cycled. A map showing the rates of cycling to work. Walking and more consistent, connected and geographic distribution of cycling mode cycling plans can identify, cost and integrated transportation connections, share in the GTHA in 2011 by origin is prioritize the measures needed to fill infrastructure and services. shown in Figure 12. gaps in a community’s infrastructure or services. Most GTHA municipalities have cycling plans, but about half do not have a plan to improve pedestrian Figure 11. Mode Share of Household Trips in the GTHA, by Cycling Potential, 2011 infrastructure and services. This lack of attention to walking can also indirectly discourage transit use. 1% 5% By setting objectives with targets, Cycled Walked active transportation plans can also guide data collection to help monitor and measure changes over time and help to coordinate routes that cross municipal boundaries, which is especially important for building networks. The proposed Growth Plan would require municipalities to plan for safe and continuous active transportation networks. In 2014, 31% Ontario launched the #CycleON 63% Potentially provincial cycling strategy which Cyclable Not Potentially Cyclable identified initiatives in progress, to undertake, and others that are long-term, and included two new Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey, 2011. programs: the Ontario Municipal

32 Figure 12: Geographic Distribution of Cycling Mode Shares in the GTHA, by Trip Origin (2011)

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey, 2011.

Cycling Infrastructure Program to help networks and prevent people from additional multi-modal trips as people municipalities build new and improve walking or biking, even for short take advantage of the systems to bike existing cycling infrastructure, and the trips. Active travel can also be to and from major transit stations. Cycling Training Fund to help partners discouraged by snow and ice build­ LAND USE PLANNING AND develop, enhance and deliver cycling up on sidewalks, trails and roads DESIGN. The provincial requirement skills training programs. during the winter. For some people, to intensify existing communities the barrier of not having a bicycle at OVERCOMING BARRIERS and reduce greenfield development hand for a given trip can be overcome THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE. supports active transportation, through bike-sharing programs like An immediate way to make walking because increasing the density and those already operating in the cities of and cycling safer is through mix of development can encourage Toronto and Hamilton. Bike-sharing is infrastructure, such as protected bike shorter trips that are easy to make also important for facilitating flexible, lanes and high-visibility pedestrian on foot or by bike. The proposed one-way or multi-modal (first-mile/ crossings. The best walking and Growth Plan also encourages the last-mile) trips. Regional coordination cycling routes are straight lines, development of a vibrant public realm could make active transportation more and providing attractive facilities on and prioritizing quality urban design to attractive to people who travel around major roads can help people reach encourage walking and cycling. the region and want to cycle or walk key destinations. Missing links and in different areas; enhancing bike- other obstacles create discontinuous sharing systems can actually stimulate

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 33 In recent years, many organizations and promoting development designs of pedestrian crossings. In order have identified the health benefits of that connect new developments to better monitor progress toward physical activity, which has become to nearby sidewalks and cycling safer walking and cycling, there more challenging to undertake for facilities. Metrolinx is looking closely remains a need for more consistent many reasons: the nature of work at improving “first-mile/last-mile” and comprehensive data collection has changed and generally become connections at GO stations to by municipalities and policing more sedentary; greater numbers of complement GO RER service organizations across the region. people are living in low-density, car- expansion, as well as designing PROMOTING ACTIVE TRAVEL based neighborhoods; and often, the stations to protect for future transit- BY CHILDREN AND YOUTH. relatively low number of stores, parks, oriented development. Making it easier Today, fewer young people walk schools, community facilities and job for GO customers to connect into or cycle to school and other daily opportunities that can be reached and out of the regional transit network destinations than 25 years ago (see by walking or cycling leads to fewer – using a variety of transportation Figure 42 in Appendix 1).14 More are opportunities for physical activity. modes – is a priority. driven by their parents due to safety In 2014, GTHA Medical Officers STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE and security concerns, demands of of Health called for full funding WALKING AND CYCLING SAFETY. the workplace, a lack of sidewalks and implementation of The Big International experience shows that and protected road crossings, Move, as well as stronger provincial higher volumes of pedestrians and and the trend away from smaller policies to support transit and active cyclists are typically accompanied by neighbourhood schools and facilities transportation, and more effective lower collision rates involving those toward larger centralized ones.15,16 integration of those modes into urban road users – an effect dubbed “safety Not only are children and their families planning processes.13 in numbers”. For this reason, steps to driving to school, but are also reliant increase the number of pedestrians on car trips to access activities In addition, promoting good design and cyclists across the region are also outside of school hours. Researchers through municipal plans and by-laws likely to improve their safety over time. believe that this reduction in active, can lead to greater comfort, security, independent movement is detrimental accessibility and aesthetics that Another effective approach is to to the health and development encourage active modes. There are improve the behaviour of all road of young people. It may also be opportunities for municipalities to users, such as through driver shaping their future travel habits in mandate supportive land uses – from awareness campaigns, cycling skills unsustainable ways. overall growth patterns to building training, and the enforcement of setbacks – in their official plans, to laws like those recently enacted in adopting zoning by-laws that require Ontario regarding passing distances, bicycle parking at all trip destinations, “dooring” of cyclists and clearing PICKERING PEDESTRIAN ACCESS HAMILTON GETS MOVING ON TWO WHEELS ENHANCED

HAMILTON REGION PICKERING, DURHAM REGION As part of efforts to increase cycling mode share and creating a multi- With the construction of a modal future, the City of Hamilton has adopted a cycling master plan, fully-enclosed pedestrian outlining future developments. The Cannon Street Cycle Track pilot bridge that spans 14 lanes of project, a 3km two-way physically separated cycle track, opened in fall Highway 401, the Pickering 2014. 2014 also marked the launch of Hamilton’s “Sobi” bike sharing GO station is now a short walk 2 system. Serving an area of over 40km , the system provides a fleet of from new office development 750 bikes and 110 docking stations. in the City Centre.

34 CITY OF TORONTO & WATERFRONT TORONTO

TORONTO Waterfront Toronto unveiled the revitalized Queens Quay Boulevard in the summer of 2015 – a new Complete Street featuring a streetcar right-of-way, wide pedestrian thoroughfares, and a multi-use pathway that connects formerly fragmented waterfront trails. With a focus on active transportation, public space, and pedestrian realm improvements, Queens Quay sets an innovative precedent.

Creating Safer, More and functions, planning and design travel by car, bus and truck. Excessive Complete Streets activities can explicitly integrate congestion makes industry less social, economic and environmental competitive, can cause businesses A CHANGING VIEW ON THE priorities to maximize quality-of-life. to relocate, and make it difficult for ROLE OF ROADS. The vast majority The City of Toronto is developing companies to attract the skilled of daily trips in the region – by foot, Complete Street Guidelines to direct workers they need. Congestion costs bike, car, bus and truck – are made future development in the city. The the GTHA’s residents and economy on roads and highways, so making proposed Growth Plan would require about $3.3 billion each year (about them safer and more efficient can municipalities to adopt a complete $1,600 per household) through strengthen the region’s quality of life, streets approach. delays to people and goods, vehicle economy and environment. At the operating costs and collisions, and VISION ZERO. A movement same time, it is important to balance $2.7 billion each year in lost economic attracting recent attention in the the mobility function of roads with activity that creates jobs. Without region is Vision Zero, an international their role as public spaces. There new strategies to better manage initiative based on the concept that is growing recognition that roads congestion, these annual costs are no one should be killed or seriously need to be sensitive to their context, expected to rise to $8 billion for injured while using the road transport and support adjacent residential or GTHA residents and $7 billion in system. From its origin in Sweden, commercial activities. economic activity by 2031.17 Vision Zero has been adopted by A COMPLETE STREETS national and local governments OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY. APPROACH. Complete streets are across Europe and North America. It While it is increasingly accepted roads that are planned, designed, promotes safety while preserving the that new and wider roads will not refurbished, reconstructed and built key functions of roads, and integrates resolve congestion, making the for all users regardless of mode, age strategies related to road design, most efficient use of roads remains or ability. They are safer, more efficient vehicle technology, education part of the congestion management and attractive for transit-users, cyclists and enforcement. toolbox in many areas of the region. and pedestrians, as well as car and In many corridors, giving priority to truck drivers, and they are considered transit vehicles, carpools, cyclists and appropriately accommodated Managing Congestion and pedestrians can minimize the in their community context. They demand for travel by car. To prioritize The Regional Transportation Plan include elements such as lighting, transit and reduce delays for all users, review presents an opportunity to benches, signage and wayfinding, municipalities can remove bottlenecks revisit how congestion is managed trees, patios, utilities and stormwater by adjusting traffic signals, modifying across the region’s municipalities to management. While not every street road configurations, updating rules can accommodate all potential users improve the speed and reliability of

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 35 and enforcing on-street loading, autonomous vehicles could also require also increase the minimum number of stopping and parking regulations. significant road network upgrades to HOV occupants from two to three as Sophisticated tools to identify and enable self-driving cars, buses and lane demands grow. Ontario recently remove collisions and other unexpected trucks. launched an HOT pilot project on the incidents, and to provide drivers with Queen Elizabeth Way. MANAGED LANES. While auto trips routing information for those events as are not expected to be significantly Buses and carpools move many well as for weather-related conditions, impacted by recent transit commitments, more people than single-occupant can preserve the road system’s the introduction of more high-occupancy vehicles and, where volumes warrant, reliability. Operational efficiency is also vehicle (HOV) transit lanes on regional consideration should be given to extremely important for addressing highways would affect auto times. granting them priority on HOV lanes access to and from on freeways and arterial roads. GO rail stations. Within the region, the Province of Currently, the City of Toronto operates Ontario operates HOV lanes on SMARTER ROADS. Advances in five arterial road HOV corridors, Highways 403, 404 and the Queen technology raise the possibility for typically in weekday peak periods. Elizabeth Way, and will expand those “smart roads” to play an active role in by 2031 to create a 300km network The results of provincial pilot HOV managing congestion. Roadside or of HOV lanes on 400-series highways. lanes during the Pan/ParaPan in-road sensors and road-to-vehicle Ontario has announced that, over American Games in summer 2015 communications have the potential for time, some of those HOV lanes will be were positive, and demonstrate the real-time operational adjustments (e.g. converted to HOT (high-occupancy untapped potential of transportation changes in signal timing or HOV lane toll) lanes that can be used by drivers demand management initiatives to eligibility) and driver information (e.g. of single-occupant vehicles who have improve the transportation system. weather or road surface conditions, purchased a permit; the Province can HOV3+ lanes on the Gardiner and routing advice). The emergence of

Figure 13: GO Bus Passenger Time Savings with HOV3+

No HOV3+ lanes Queen Elizabeth Way With HOV3+ lanes

Highway 427

Gardiner Expressway West

Gardiner Expressway East and Don Valley Parkway

Highway 404 between Highway 401 and Highway 407

Highway 401 Between Warden Ave. and Brimley Ave.

401 between McCowan Rd. and Westney Rd.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Total Daily Passenger Delay (hours) Source: GO Bus Operations

Note: Passenger delay is measured as travel time greater than scheduled travel time multiplied by the number of passengers affected

36 the Don Valley Parkway had the largest important routes for truck freight. COLLABORATION AND impact on GO passengers in terms of In this region, such routes might KNOWLEDGE-BUILDING. As a reducing delay (see Figure 13). Regional be under municipal or provincial follow-up to The Big Move, Metrolinx’s highways are carrying an increasing jurisdiction, but represent the most GTHA Urban Freight Study (2011) amount of transit users on GO buses efficient links between major goods- identified the need for better regional and local transit buses. Better travel generating activity centres, intermodal consultation and planning around times and reliability on highways used by terminals and regional gateways. A goods movement. It also highlighted buses could lead to a steep increase in strategic goods movement network the need for new data collection bus ridership, while also decreasing bus could act as a lens for prioritizing the and analytical tools to improve the operating costs. The benefits of HOV location and timing of truck-friendly understanding of freight patterns as lanes for transit vehicles and carpoolers improvements to road geometry or e-commerce boosts the demand for across the region could be accelerated operations, and for understanding express delivery to homes by increasing both the scope and pace the potential impact of new and businesses. of their implementation. truck restrictions. REDUCING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVING COMPATIBILITY IMPACTS. Action is needed to Moving Urban Freight WITH LAND USE. Conflicts reduce freight’s environmental effects between goods movement and such as air emissions, noise and A COMPLEX SECTOR WITH HIGH land use planning have become vibration. Boosting the efficiency of STAKES. The region’s economy relies more acute as new residential and the “last mile” of freight movements on the ability to move goods quickly, industrial developments extend could help, and might include the reliably, safely, and with acceptable the GTHA’s urban boundary, and creation of urban distribution centres costs and environmental impacts. The as redevelopment occurs in older that allow carriers to consolidate region’s network of air, marine, rail, neighbourhoods near freight-intensive goods, share vehicles and increase road and pipeline facilities involves areas. In addition, the growing the efficiency of deliveries; or the both the public sector (Metrolinx, the popularity of last-mile deliveries creation of low-emission zones where Ministry of Transportation, municipalities, stemming from the rise of on-line high-emitting vehicles are prohibited ports, airports) and the private sector shopping could mean more traffic or must pay a fee to enter. (retailers, manufacturers, builders, on local roads. However, several railways, trucking companies, couriers approaches to lessen these impacts and logistics providers, among others). are emerging. For example, land Reducing the Demand Growing congestion and a greater use plans and policies can cluster for Travel industry reliance on logistics and freight-intensive developments near EXPANDING TRANSPORTATION efficient freight transport have raised efficient freight routes to facilitate DEMAND MANAGEMENT (TDM). the stakes around protecting shorter truck trips or to keep trucks Transportation Demand Management freight’s positive contribution to the from driving through sensitive areas. (TDM) strategies use information, region’s economy. MTO has developed freight-supportive education and incentives to influence guidelines to help municipalities STRATEGIC GOODS MOVEMENT the demand for travel and support develop official plans, zoning and NETWORK. The existing truck public investments in roads, transit, development approvals practices that route networks designated by GTHA sidewalks and trails. TDM makes protect the interests of businesses municipalities are intended to protect some travel choices (typically and residents. The proposed Growth sensitive neighbourhoods and road walking, cycling, transit, carpooling Plan is strengthening its corridor infrastructure from the impact of high or teleworking) more attractive, and protection policy to ensure that heavy truck volumes, but they do not encourages people to try new ways corridors for goods movement can provide a constructive framework for of getting around. TDM measures can be developed when they are needed supporting economic development. increase ridership on new rapid transit in the future. Some other regions in North America corridors – something of interest given have identified a network of strategically the extensive plans for new transit

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 37 investments and optimize the uptake of new transit services. Funding YORK REGION EXPANDS ITS CYCLING NETWORK tools could be used to encourage collaboration and implementation of a scalable set of TDM measures. The YORK REGION proposed Growth Plan requires that Coupling transportation redevelopment with active transportation municipalities develop TDM plans infrastructure, the Highway 7 East Viva BRT project included cycle to ensure that these strategies are lanes along its length. The Region also has plans for a multi-use path on considered in the planning process. Highway 7’s protected centre median.

Designing for All Modes facilities across the region. They can funding mechanisms (e.g. dedicated The region’s urban form – that is, the also minimize disruption during road development charges). buildings, street-blocks, and road and transit construction projects Metrolinx has several tools (e.g. the patterns that make up the structure by encouraging the use of different PRESTO electronic fare card, the of the region – has an impact on how modes or routes. Triplinx travel planner, and various well the transportation system can INCREASING EFFECTIVENESS. elements of the Smart Commute support the economy, and particularly While several years of TDM program) that could be used to give the knowledge economy which relies programming have laid a solid more support to TDM programming, and heavily on attracting the “creative foundation for the GTHA, TDM’s new tools could go further by enabling class”. Today’s developments will true potential has not yet been dynamic real-time ride-matching. influence travel demand for decades. realized. Perhaps the best example Municipalities could also consider Throughout the region, and particularly of how it could support the region’s regulations requiring TDM programs in its fast-growing areas, there is an transportation goals came during in large workplaces, or financial tools urgent need to make sure that new the 2015 Pan/Parapan American such as parking charges or various developments improve travel options Games, when TDM’s ability to balance forms of road pricing. Smart Commute for residents and employees, and travel demand with transportation also collaborates with local partners to that public investments enhance the capacity was demonstrated through support active and sustainable school regional transportation system and the temporary expansion of the HOV travel through program implementation strengthen the economy. A number lane network, supported by additional (e.g. School Travel Planning pilot, Bike of municipalities have been working cost-effective strategies like travel to School Day), regional coordination to push the envelope in requiring new planning tools, flexible working hours (e.g. Active and Sustainable School developments to be more supportive and communications.15 Employers Transportation Regional Hub), strategy of sustainable travel modes. also have a leadership role to play development and research. DEVELOPMENT APPROVALS. in implementing flexible working A LOOK AHEAD. Municipalities are influential when hours and other measures that would The contribution of TDM to the vision adopting policies, by-laws and support more effective functioning of of the next RTP could be enhanced approval practices that build support the region’s transportation network. by creating an overarching policy for walking, cycling, transit and Opportunity exists to better integrate framework that clarifies roles and carpooling into new homes, condos, TDM into the land development improves coordination among all offices, stores and institutions. For process, including stronger policy partners and stakeholders. At a regional instance, municipalities can encourage (e.g. requiring TDM plans with level, clearer guidance could help developments that provide carpool applications), active transportation- municipalities improve TDM programs parking, bicycle storage, showers and supportive design and infrastructure and performance measurement, and change rooms, and direct connections (e.g. bicycle parking), programming new policies and tools could support to nearby sidewalks and bus stops. (e.g. individualized marketing) and the delivery of major infrastructure

38 PARKING STRATEGIES. Figure 14: Comparison of Trends in Transit Operating Costs, Revenues, Municipalities have a role to play in and Ridership, 2008-2014 determining the amount of parking included in new developments; such as requiring parking structures rather than at-grade lots, promoting shared % Growth TTC 140 parking among neighbouring land Operating Cost uses and charging drivers to park 120 Ridership in public places. Ineffective parking Operating Revenue management in private developments 100 can easily undermine major public 80 investments and prevent the 60 achievement of regional transportation goals. Behavioural research has 40 shown that the provision of free or 20 heavily discounted parking at the workplace is one of the key factors 0 in commuters deciding to drive to 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 work, even when transit alternatives Year are available.18,19 Residential parking Rest of GTHA (Excl. GO) availability plays a role in making 140 car ownership more attractive, and 120 updating zoning codes to reduce the amount of parking required in new 100 housing developments can be 80 another tool in reducing auto ownership and increasing transit 60 and active mode share.20 40

It is also important to consider the 20 future of parking with the eventual 0 arrival of autonomous vehicles (see 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Section 3.4), as well as the potential impact of peer-to-peer parking. If less GO Transit parking will be needed, opportunities 140 for complete streets and other city- 120 building initiatives may become easier to implement. 100 80

60

40

20

0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA)

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 39 Figure 15: Relationship of Transit Operating Cost to Urban Density, GTHA (2014) 21

Operating Cost $10.00 per Passenger $9.00 Milton $8.00 Oakville York $7.00 Burlington

$6.00 Durham $5.00 Brampton Mississauga $4.00 Hamilton $3.00 Toronto

$2.00

$1.00

$- 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Density in Urbanized Areas (Population + Employment per ha)

Sustainable Funding to pay for maintenance, fuel, drivers slow to respond to the emergence and security (Figure 14). Even with the of on-demand services and pose a The Regional Transportation Plan new federal funding for infrastructure challenge to their complementary and review also provides an opportunity committed in the 2016 budget as well orderly deployment across the region. to advance the public dialogue about as prior provincial commitments, it is OPERATIONAL transportation funding in the region. In becoming evident that new funding CONSIDERATIONS. A dramatic many jurisdictions, long-range plans are tools are required to continue planning, increase in the quantity of transit aligned with fiscal plans that describe building and operating an effective service across the region will be how proposed infrastructure and service regional transportation system. will be provided. needed to achieve the proposed COMPLEX GOVERNANCE. Who vision, goals and objectives for the The RTP review also provides an plans transportation infrastructure, who next Regional Transportation Plan opportunity to reconsider revenue builds it, and who pays for it involves and to support the transportation tools as a means of influencing travel the Province of Ontario, Metrolinx, needs of the region. This is especially behavior, in addition to generating regional and local municipalities, and true in areas where rapid population the funds needed to implement the nine transit agencies. While Metrolinx growth is expected, current ridership strategies and policies for the region’s is a planning and coordinating body for is low, and transit services typically transportation system. transit infrastructure in the GTHA, its recover only a small proportion of their AN IMBALANCE BETWEEN provincial and municipal partners also operating costs from the fare box. build major public works. COSTS AND FUNDING. As assets Increases in operating cost age and congestion mounts, the While emerging on-demand services are generally related to service rehabilitation and expansion of the are presenting opportunities to enhance improvements, which can result in GTHA’s transportation infrastructure is mobility, a complex web of long-standing higher ridership (see Figure 14), becoming more urgent. Transit ridership provincial and municipal legislation and particularly where densities are is accelerating while operating costs regulations are in place, developed over high enough to support transit use. grow even faster, and transit systems decades to reflect the public interest. However operating revenue does not are facing strong competition with other However, today they are relatively always increase proportionally and public services for the funds they need

40 many transit agencies may continue POSSIBLE FUNDING TOOLS. reviewed the investment practices to suffer from low fare-box recovery Metrolinx’s 2013 Investment Strategy of regional transportation authorities rates. Operating costs are generally recommended raising $2 billion around the world, and found that proportional to urban density (see Figure annually in new revenues for GTHA the use of multiple funding tools can 15), and as a result, cost-recovery transit infrastructure and services, increase funds, but also change rates are typically lower in suburban walking and cycling facilities, mobility travel behaviour. municipalities. If transit agencies hubs, roads and urban freight, and Value capture financing is one are going to increase service levels, the preferred tools to generate approach that has been used particularly to match GO RER service these funds. It recommended four internationally. When government levels, and leverage other investments in guiding principles to be applied to makes key infrastructure investments, rapid transit infrastructure, solutions to the selection of new funding tools: typically in water/sewer connections funding enhanced operating costs will dedication of revenues to specific or transportation infrastructure, have to be found, including how partners outcomes, fairness, regional equity considerable “unearned” profits work together to help manage operating and accountability and transparency. accrue to land developers. Value costs that arise from strengthening The update of the Regional capture financing explicitly reclaims regional-scale services. Transportation Plan provides an for government a portion of the profit opportunity to revisit or clarify Another issue that will have an impact that is unlocked due to governmental these principles. on the ability to increase transit service action and then leverages additional is that operating costs are increasing Some revenue tools would serve two borrowing capacity against these faster than ridership, particularly on purposes: they would provide a more future value capture payments.22,23 GO Transit (Figure 14). Given the goal stable revenue source for funding While development charges are of keeping transit affordable and to transit infrastructure and operating quite common in Ontario, other generally maintain high levels of transit cost shortfalls, and also be used to types of value capture have not ridership, GO Transit fares have not kept reshape the region. Road tolls or commonly been considered, and in pace with operating costs, with the gap road pricing would have a significant some cases, a new legal framework widening between 2008 and 2014 (see impact on mode choice and would may be requried to enable this type Figure 16). also encourage a more compact of financing. development pattern. Metrolinx has

Figure 16: Operating Cost per Revenue Passenger in 2008 and 2014

2008 $2.78 TTC 2014 $2.88 Average Fare

Other GTHA $4.95 Agencies (excl. GO) $5.30

$6.91 GO Transit $10.38

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00

Operating Cost Per Passenger (dollars) Source: Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA)

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 41 3.4 The Next a wide variety of services. The most low density areas), and have the Generation of popular form involves travellers hiring potential to fill gaps that transit has non-commercial drivers to transport traditionally found challenging (e.g. Mobility them to their destination, but can also first mile-last mile connections). facilitate ride-sharing, carpooling and However, there is a risk that the Advances in mobility service models, ride-matching. Advanced multi-modal benefits of on-demand mobility autonomous and connected vehicle trip planning tools can now instantly services to the individual could technologies, and mobile applications pair carpool drivers and passengers eclipse the societal benefits of a more loom large over any future vision for a trip, and facilitate digital coordinated and balanced mobility of transportation in the region. payments to share driving expenses. system resulting, for example, in The next Regional Transportation Additionally they are leading to new increased vehicle travel, less viable Plan will lay the groundwork for an options such as demand-responsive transit service, or less equitable ongoing process of anticipating and (on-demand) transit services with access and mobility for those that responding to influential trends. routes determined in real-time. TNCs have fewer options. have the potential to compete with Transportation network companies personal cars and taxis as well as with Emerging New Mobility and ride-sharing companies are likely public transit. At present, regulation Options to increase demand for trips that is evolving, with some Canadian were traditionally made by taxi mode The travel choices available to municipalities establishing local in 2011. However, these companies residents for decades are being regulations, typically in isolation of one also have plans to promote trips made reinvented as new mobility models and another in the same region. Commonly by multiple travelers (e.g. Uber Pool technologies are emerging outside identified regulatory issues include car and Lyft Line), which has considerable traditional government planning and insurance, service for passengers with potential to decrease overall motorized delivery frameworks. They could disabilities, security, competition with vehicle kilometres travelled (vkt). At bring benefits, but also controversy taxicabs, and mode shift from transit. the same time, these improvements and complexity. By contrast to Canadian jurisdictions, will only come about if most of the a host of American states have TRANSPORTATION NETWORK shared ride travelers were previously passed statewide bills to regulate COMPANIES (TNCs) (e.g. Uber, Lyft, taxi riders or drivers. If TNCs draw TNCs and ridesharing. BlancRide, Bridj) are rapidly becoming significant ridership from former transit highly visible and disruptive forces in Overall, these emerging new mobility riders or from people using active cities around the world. Through the models can be complementary to modes, overall vkt could increase as a flexibility of mobile communications transit, provide more efficient services result of this new service. One recent and the “sharing economy,” TNCs offer for segments of the population (e.g. study suggested that half of Uber users in San Francisco were drawing predominantly from transit and active modes.24 MILTON TACKLES THE FIRST AND LAST MILE CAR-SHARING is growing rapidly (see Figure 17), and reflecting

MILTON, HALTON REGION that many younger professionals For the cost of a standard local transit fare, Milton’s GO Connect Drop- in dense urban areas may have a Off evening service provides flexible shuttle service for each rider who lessened interest in the expense of arrives in Milton on the GO train. The service is provided to 110 riders car ownership and maintenance. each weekday evening, providing a local solution to the “first-mile/last­ Between January 2014 and January mile” challenge of accessing the GO station. 2015, car-sharing memberships in Canada grew by 50%.25 Shifts in technology and consumer behaviour

42 Figure 17: Growth in Car-Sharing Membership in the Americas Figure 17: Growth in Car-Sharing Membership in Canada

Members

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Shaheen and Cohen. Carsharing Market Overview, Analysis and Trends. 2015 (Jan) have led to new models of car-sharing, be brought about by focused AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (also including peer-to-peer, and will likely development of a single transport called fully-automated vehicles, become more popular as these models mode, but instead requires an driverless cars or self-driving cars) mature and innovate. Research suggests integrated approach. can read their surroundings and car-sharing has the potential to reduce make intelligent decisions about CONNECTED VEHICLES use new car ownership and car use, but parking their direction, speed and interaction technologies that allow vehicle-to­ supply is a constraint to its growth, and with other road users. Autonomous vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure opportunity exists to adapt traditional vehicles (AVs) could lead to the more communication to improve road safety, parking provision and policies to flexible use of private cars, as well as reduce congestion and emissions, and optimize its use.26 to customized and lower-cost transit boost the effective capacity of roads services. Their widespread use could MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE is without widening them. Connected improve safety for all road users (given an emerging model for marketing a vehicles represent an incremental and that 90% of crashes are caused by comprehensive suite of multi-modal largely positive change to current road human error), and enhance mobility services. Travelers plan and pay for their use; in Toronto, connected vehicles options for non-drivers (e.g. seniors, mobility needs through a single portal have the potential to reduce travel youth and persons with disabilities). that integrates the services of multiple times by 37%, reduce emissions by AVs could provide an effective solution providers (e.g. transit systems, car or 30%, and improve safety indicators by to “first mile” and “last mile” barriers bike share providers, taxis), and choose 45%.27 The United States Department facing travelers trying to get to and from several on-demand services for of Transportation estimates that from rapid transit stations (particularly each trip. Treating transport as a service vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity could in suburban areas), and could reduce encourages providers to look at mobility affect or eliminate up to 76% of the cost of long-distance trucking. from the perspective of customers multi-vehicle crashes involving light- and their needs, recognizing that duty vehicles.28 Other potential benefits include desired changes to the transportation improved traffic circulation, increased system (e.g. congestion relief) cannot road capacity and reduced emissions

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 43 – especially in conjunction with adoption of battery electric and plug-in Embracing New connected vehicle technologies. hybrid electric vehicles as one means Mobility Opportunities Their advancement may allow for of achieving reductions. the redeployment of road capacity Going forward, transportation The Electric Vehicle Incentive Program for pedestrian and cyclist use, and planning, modelling and project was introduced by MTO in 2010, redevelopment of land previously assessment will need to consider and updated in 2016 to reward early used for parking. These advances the impact of emerging mobility and adopters and develop market demand could have the greatest benefit for technology trends. for new technology. The number of customers in lower-density suburban electric vehicles registered in the Metrolinx has begun to explore a or rural areas, where conventional program is shown in Figure 18. In number of possible models for the transit can be expensive to deliver parallel, the Ontario Green Investment delivery of new mobility options in the and require long walking distances Fund is being directed towards the region with our municipal partners and waiting times. At the same time, build-out of a public electric vehicle who have responsibility for local suburban households may be the least charging station network. Since 2010, transit service and regulating private likely to embrace these options. more than 6,000 EVs have been sold transportation services. Many of Factors that will influence adoption in Ontario29, and more than 1,000 these models involve partnerships include vehicle availability and public charging stations have opened. with the private sector to develop a features; consumer acceptance; Metrolinx is also installing electric more integrated suite of services that government regulation; privacy and vehicle charging infrastructure at complement the central role of public security regulations, and insurance several of its GO stations (see transit in meeting traveller needs. industry adjustments, and it may Figure 18). These could include collaboration on take decades before they become new travel choices in areas with low Municipalities are also taking a commonplace. Uncertainty also transit service levels, emergency ride leadership role in supporting electric surrounds whether consumers will home options for Smart Commute vehicles by including EV policies gravitate towards ownership or participants and on-demand in their community energy planning shared-use of autonomous vehicles, accessible transportation services. processes, installing public charging which will significantly influence the In setting the parameters within and priority parking spaces, and impacts on the transportation system. which the private sector operates, promoting EV resources to residents Government will need to monitor government can provide enough and businesses. progress and plan scenarios and space for technological and service policy accordingly to ensure optimal innovation, as well as establish outcomes from AV technology, and technical and social standards to screen major investments through the abide by. The possible benefits of lens of AVs. such models could include improved user mobility and convenience, better VEHICLE FUEL-EFFICIENCY user information, lower public sector AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVs) continue to represent an opportunity for the transportation sector to make a big impact on reducing greenhouse BURLINGTON TRANSIT GOES MOBILE gas emissions(GHGs). EVs will play an important part in Ontario’s

Climate Change Strategy by reducing BURLINGTON, HALTON REGION transportation emissions, the largest In recognition of growing mobile web traffic, Burlington Transit launched a GHG source in the province. Ontario mobile-friendly website in 2016, complete with real-time bus data. Riders has set a long-term goal to reduce can now view a live map featuring the exact location of their bus from their emissions by 80% below 1990 mobile device. levels by 2050, and is promoting the

44 New mobility relies on, and creates Figure 18: Electric Vehicles in the Incentive Program and Charging Infrastructure a vast amount of data, using Figureat GO 18: Stations TK smartphones to receive and generate trip data and enabling more flexible Newmarket 54 and adaptive transportation services. Aurora The field of data management will 41 require increased attention to ensure YORK Richmond Hill privacy, ownership and security 157 DURHAM concerns are met, and that big data PEEL Vaughan 209 Markham Whitby appropriately informs transportation 179 Pickering 33 Brampton 29 127 decision-making. Data generation TORONTO Ajax Toronto 37 and monitoring can even enable new 1,045

Mississauga policy tools for demand management 275 HALTON (e.g. pay-as-you-drive insurance,

Milton active transportation incentive 28 Lake Ontario programs). Ultimately, government Oakville 178 could potentially act as a steward for Burlington 113 MTO Electric Vehicle Incentive Recipients & mobility-related data in the region, EV Charging Infrastructure at GO Stations maintaining its integrity, security GO Rail Service Number of Vehicles by Municipality 123 and openness.

Hamilton EV Charging Infrastructure at Station 73 HAMILTON Pre-Wired for EV Charging Infrastructure While autonomous vehicles could June 2016 have a major impact on personal Source: Ontario Ministry of Transportation mobility, connected vehicles represent costs, and more effective use of public congestion, safety and accessibility), an incremental change to current resources, such as large buses. In and by enacting timely legislation and road use; the role of governments considering these options, it will be regulation. Ontario is the first province could revolve mainly around necessary to focus on areas where to allow for the testing of automated establishing protocols and upgrading new partnerships can fill gaps in the vehicles and related technology on- roads and roadside infrastructure conventional services provided by road, and with the Ontario Centres to enable communications with the public sector, or where current of Excellence Connected Vehicle/ vehicles and their users. Metrolinx services can be improved upon and Automated Vehicle Program there is a and municipalities can monitor the delivered more efficiently. supportive legislative environment for progress of related technologies and the region to be a leader in this area. the impacts of pilot testing, support The role of governments in research and development that vehicle technology is expected Overall, coordination is needed advances the public interest (e.g. in to revolve around establishing between different levels of government, areas such as congestion, safety and protocols and upgrading roads and and across boundaries. For example, accessibility), and, in conjunction with roadside infrastructure to enable Metrolinx is partnering with the the Province, enact timely legislation communications with vehicles City of Toronto to better assess the and regulation. and their users. Metrolinx and speed at which these technologies municipalities must act to maximize will be adopted (once they become the benefits of innovation while commercially available) and how this mitigating the costs. They can do so might vary between urban and suburban by monitoring the progress of related households. This work will inform the technologies and the impacts of scenarios used in the RTP’s screening pilot testing, by supporting research process (see section 3.1). and development that advances the public interest (e.g. in areas such as

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 45 4 WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Help us create the next Regional Transportation Plan.

Comment online E-mail us: www.metrolinxengage.com [email protected]

Learn more about the 25-year multi-modal transportation plan for the region: www.metrolinx.com/theplan

Send us your responses by Monday, Look for more information on our October 31, 2016. We’ll use them website this fall and into early 2017, to shape the draft and final versions of when we will launch a variety of public the next Regional Transportation Plan. consultations to help develop the plan. Discussion Questions The following questions are intended to guide consideration of the RTP’s review, as described in this discussion paper.

Toward a shared vision of the future • Do the Vision, Goals and Objectives resonate with you and the 2041 future you would wish for? • Did we miss anything? • Does anything belong in another policy or document?

Opportunities for better transit & transportation • Do the areas of focus for the next RTP make sense to you? • Are there other opportunities or challenges you want the plan to consider? • Do you have specific local transit or transportation situations that will benefit from a more regional lens? • Looking beyond 2031, what should the RTP include to ensure that transportation expansion continues to meet regional growth to 2041?

Opportunities for regional integration & collaboration • Have we identified the key areas for improved regional/local integration and connectivity? • Are there other areas where local and regional connections and integration need to be addressed? • Where are the opportunities to improve regional collaboration to better support the implementation of the RTP? Are new tools required? • How should regional equity be addressed in the next RTP and subsequent Implementation Plan? How should issues of transit equity and access be addressed?

Opportunities for new mobility • How should the RTP focus on emerging influences including carsharing, on-demand services and autonomous vehicles? APPENDIX 1: Profile of The Region

This section begins by describing how the region’s future growth will affect its transportation system, and how transportation can contribute to sustainable growth of both residential and employment areas. It then describes key performance indicators to examine the contribution that committed transportation investments are making towards satisfying the goals of the RTP.

48 Regional Growth Context

Population Growth demand for urban living in central Total Total Toronto, rising house prices and the PopulationPopulation in the GTHA (Millions)(Millions) Growth Plan’s implementation has 10.5 Cities and suburbs will grow in encouraged a greater mix of housing 10.5 49% 49% population. The GTHA’s population types among all new dwelling units in 10.0 10.0 is expected to increase from 7.2 the GTHA (see Figure 20).31 million people in 2015 to 10.1 9.5 9.5 million in 2041, resulting in higher As shown in Figure 21, the share of seniors (age 65 and up) is population densities (see Figure 19). 9.0 9.0 The City of Toronto will remain the expected to increase dramatically as most populous municipality, but most the population continues to grow, 8.5 8.5 growth will happen elsewhere – with becoming the dominant age cohort 32 Durham, Halton, Peel and York regions by 2041. This has strong 8.0 8.0 seeing population increases of more implications for future mobility than 50%.30 Over the last decade, throughout the region. 7.5 7.5

7.0 7.0

6.5 6.5

6.0 6.0

5.5 5.5

5.0 5.0 Figure 19: Projected Growth in GTHA Population

4.5 4.5

Total PopulationTotal Population 4.0 4.0 (Millions)(Millions) 26% 26% 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2001 2001 3.0 3.0 3.02006 2006 3.0

2011 2011 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2041 2041 47% 47% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 68% 68%

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 90% 90% 93% 93% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 46% 46%

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 HamiltonHamilton Halton Halton Durham Durham York York Peel Peel Toronto Toronto GTHA GTHA

Source: Statistics Canada and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006). Note: Metro

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 49 Employment Growth in A SHIFTING ECONOMIC warehouse and manufacturing the GTHA FOUNDATION. The GTHA’s facilities and low density suburban economy and employment office parks, are more difficult to serve EMPLOYMENT WILL GROW AND patterns have changed in the last with transit. People tend to choose THE LOCATION OF JOBS WILL three decades. Almost 200,000 how they get to work based on where SHIFT. The number of jobs in the manufacturing jobs have disappeared they work rather than where they live, GTHA is expected to keep pace with since 2001, mostly in older industrial so to keep the region moving transit population, rising from 3.3 million areas, and the sector’s share of needs to align with where jobs are in 2011 to 4.8 million in 2041 (see regional employment dropped to 10% located in sufficient density to 33 Figure 22). Since 2006, employment in 2015 from 20% in the mid-1980s. support transit use. located inside and outside of the Increasingly, the region’s economy is OFFICE GROWTH IN City of Toronto has been relatively based on professional and technical DOWNTOWN TORONTO. Since balanced. However, the City is services (including knowledge-based 2006, in a reversal of trends in forecasted to be home to only 36% organizations and creative businesses) the 1990s, there has been more of the region’s jobs in 2041, with the in addition to the retail, healthcare and than twice as much major office majority of growth forecasted to be institutional services required by a 34 development in Toronto’s core as outside Toronto. This is in part due to growing population.35 the population-related growth outside everywhere else in the GTHA (see of Toronto and the growth in non- The location of jobs is a determinant Figure 22), growing from 40% to 46% office sectors. To support employment of how people travel to work. Higher of the total office employment in the 36 growth, the existing and planned density, office employment tends GTHA in the last ten years. transportation system needs to take to be more conducive to transit into account the growth in jobs and use, for example, whereas lower their location across the region. density employment types, including

Figure 20: Proportion of Dwelling Units by Type Built between 2001 and 2016.

Share of Housing Completions 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 2001­ 2006­ 2011­ 2001­ 2006­ 2011­ 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016

Toronto Rest of GTHA

Apartment Row Single & Semi-Detached

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. with data from CMHC Monthly Housing Market Tables

50 Figure 22: Total Employment and Office Employment in the GTHA

Total Office Employment Employment (millions) Total Employment (thousands) Office Employment 3.5 600

3.0 500

2.5 400

2.0 300 1.5

200 1.0

100 Figure 21: Proportion of GTHA Population 0.5 by Age Group, 2016-2041

0.0 0 Proportion of 2006 2011 2016* 2031 2041 2006 2011 2016* 2031 2041 GTHA Population Downtown Rest of Toronto Rest of GTHA Rest of GTHA 25% Toronto Toronto

Total Office Employment Employment (millions)20% Total Employment (thousands) Office Employment 3.5 600

15% 3.0 500

10%2.5 400

2.0 5% 300 1.5

200 0% 1.0 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

100 0.5 Youth (age 3-19) Young Adults (age 20-34) 0.0 Middle Age (age 35-49) 0 2006 2011 2016* 2031 2041 2006 2011 2016* 2031 2041 Adults 50-64 (age 50-64) Downtown Rest of Toronto Rest of GTHA Rest of GTHA Seniors (age 65+) Toronto Toronto

Source: Ministry of Finance Population Projections Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. with data from Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006) *Note: 2016 data are estimated

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 51 Figure 23: Accessibility to Labour Force within 45 minutes by Transit (2011)37

Areas with high employment but poor access to potential labour force by transit are circled in red. *Note: Data for Durham include access by GO Transit only. route data were not available at the time of writing. Downtown Toronto will likely remain the focus of office development for some time, in part due to the competition among employers to attract a young workforce. This downtown-oriented growth reinforces demand for transit services that feed OAKVILLE MAKES IT EASIER FOR Toronto’s core. At the same time, LOCAL TRANSIT USERS with the implementation of GO RER bi-directional service, there is an OAKVILLE, HALTON REGION opportunity to cluster office growth In 2009, Oakville began restructuring its transit system to meet the outside the downtown core around needs of residents travelling within the town. Six new grid-system bus suburban rail stations and in routes were introduced and service was increased to make crosstown Urban Growth Centres served by journeys quicker and more direct. These changes resulted in a sharp this program. increase in ridership growth and higher fare-box recovery.

52 THE GROWTH OF MEGAZONES. DECLINING TRANSIT POTENTIAL Travel Demand At the same time as growth in Toronto’s IN OLDER EMPLOYMENT downtown core, another important AREAS. As manufacturing With the growth in population and jobs economic trend since 2001 has employment has dropped, so has the comes growth in travel. In 2011, a been the rapid emergence of large number of employees in traditional total of 13.2 million trips were made on employment centres near Highway employment areas in industrial areas average, by all modes (except school 407’s interchanges with Highways 404 and inner suburban business parks. bus), each day within in the GTHA. Of and 400, and around Lester B. Pearson However, the demand for space in these, 3.3 million were made during the International Airport.38 “Megazones” older industrial areas has not morning peak period (6:30 a.m. to 9:30 are not homogenous across their changed with increasing automation a.m.). By 2031, the number of trips in area – they typically consist of and a greater logistics orientation, the morning peak period is expected to various uses which makes consistent as they still require large facilities, grow to 4.5 million (see Figure 24). transportation access difficult. These even while functioning with fewer The number of person-trips made by three suburban “megazones” are not employees. In the process, serving car or transit in the morning peak hour well served by transit and have become these areas with high-quality, cost- will increase from almost 3 million in major contributors to regional traffic effective transit becomes even more 2011 to almost 4 million in 2031 with congestion. While together they host difficult to provide. the committed transit network in place. about 15% more jobs than downtown Toronto (543,000 versus 465,000), they generate about 250% more car-based work trips (950,000 versus 267,000).39

Some firms in these areas need access to low-cost labour to be competitive, and public transit is vital to their Figure 24: Growth in Total Morning Peak Period Trips ability to attract potential employees. However, the megazones have relatively Total Trips, poor transit access related to the areas A.M. Peak Period where potential workers live, creating (Millions) an opportunity for potential new 5.0 services. The map in Figure 23 shows 11% the potential labour force accessible 4.0 to different areas of the GTHA within 18% 45 minutes by transit (including walk 9% access time, wait time, transfer time(s) 3.0 71% and in-vehicle time). The map highlights 10% 18% many areas that have high employment 10% 16% 73% (including megazones, shown as red 2.0 19% circles), but are relatively difficult for 74% people to access by transit. There are 71% also many areas that are accessible 1.0 to many people by transit, but there are few jobs in those areas. Given the 0.0 vast possible variances between areas 1991 2001 2011 2031 of high employment or population, different transportation solutions will be Auto Transit Active needed to serve different contexts. Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey and MTO Greater Golden Horseshoe Model. Note: Does not include School Bus.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 53 Figure 25: Relative Morning Peak Period Travel Demand for Different GTHA Travel Markets, 1991-2031

Projected distribution of total trips per travel market, 2031

2.4% Within Downtown 6% Between Regional Municipalities or Hamilton 8.7% To Downtown 12.7% Between Hamilton or Regional Municipalities and Rest of Toronto 23% Within Rest of Toronto 47.2% Within Hamilton or any Regional Municipality

Within Downtown To Downtown Within Rest Between Hamilton Within Hamilton Between of Toronto or Regional or any Regional Regional Proportion of Municipalities and Municipality Municipalities Total Trips (%) Rest of Toronto or Hamilton

50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45%

40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey and MTO Greater Golden Horseshoe Model.

54 Although the number of transit trips will TRAVEL DEMAND PATTERNS Making Transportation increase by about 36% between 2011 ARE CHANGING. Figure 25 shows and Land Use and 2031, the number of auto trips will the change in total trips from 1991 to Work Together increase by almost the same proportion 2031, as a percentage of all trips in (33%), from about 2.4 million trips in the GTHA, for different travel markets Communities with mixed land uses 2011 to 3.2 million trips.40 (specific trip origin and destination provide more opportunities to bring combinations). The largest travel market home and work closer together, Provincial investments in rapid transit is for trips within any single or upper- potentially reducing the length of infrastructure have allowed the region tier municipality outside of Toronto, with motorized trips and making walking to keep up with overall growth – this trips growing from 34% of all trips in and cycling more attractive. Greater is significant. However, transit mode the GTHA in 1991 to almost half (47%) density in new and established share is not expected to increase of all trips in the GTHA by 2031. In communities leads to more cost- significantly by 2031, remaining addition, trips destined to downtown effective transit service, which in turn constant at approximately 20% of all Toronto are decreasing, from 14% of all enables better service and higher trips taken in the region (see Section trips in the GTHA in 1991 to only 9% ridership (see Figure 26). 3.3 for a full discussion of mode of trips in 2031. Together these present share).41 While more people Intensification is an opportunity challenges to maintaining and growing will take public transit, the car to improve the mix of uses and transit mode share, as the current can be expected to remain the most density at the same time, while also transit network is heavily focused on prevalent travel mode for most people. making best use of transportation radial trips into downtown, and does investments. Ontario’s Growth Plan not serve the demands of cross- regional travel as well.

Figure 26: Relationship of Urban Density to Transit Mode Share by GTHA Ward (2011)

Transit Mode Share 60%

50%

40%

30%

20% Toronto Wards GTHA Wards Outside Toronto 10%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Average Urban Density (Population + Employment per ha)

Source: IBI Group based on Transportation Tomorrow Survey, Statistics Canada 2011 Census and National Household Survey.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 55 calls for the development of complete communities, setting density targets for Ministry of Transportation’s Transit- communities that not only minimize major transit station areas, identifying Supportive Guidelines: distance between living and working and protecting priority corridors, and » By 2011, only 24 out of 68 spaces, but utilizes a fast, reliable and improving the design of transit stations. existing Toronto subway stations integrated transportation system to Overall, the Growth Plan has worked met the threshold of 200 people keep people and goods moving. to intensify the existing urban areas, and jobs per hectare. TARGETS FOR DENSITY AND and the proposed Growth Plan » Only 1 out of 22 existing light CONNECTIVITY. The Growth recognizes the importance of going rail or bus rapid transit stations Plan envisions compact, mixed-use even further by proposing a 60% met the threshold of 160 people and transit-supportive communities intensification target.42 However, and jobs per hectare.44 where people can live, work and play challenges remain with respect to through their lifetimes. It sets targets integrating growth with public The Growth Plan and the Regional for municipalities to increase land use transit infrastructure: Transportation Plan work together to densities in established communities, ensure that where and how the region • From 2001 to 2011, only 18% urban growth centres, greenfield areas grows aligns with frequent and rapid of new population growth in the and around major transit stations. transit. Proposed amendments to the GTHA happened near frequent The Growth Plan also requires Growth Plan – part of the Province’s transit networks, and only 10% municipalities to plan communities Co-ordinated Land Use Planning happened within 1km of a GO that offer diverse housing types, mixed Review – are currently available for station (see Section 3.2 for land uses and a variety of employment public feedback (to September 30th, further discussion).43 opportunities, and to support walking, 2016). The proposals include new cycling and transit through urban • Very few of the 333 “major transit policies that identify strategic growth form and a highly connected street station areas” identified in official areas where development and transit network. The proposed Growth Plan plans across the Greater Golden infrastructure should be aligned continues to strengthen these policies. Horseshoe have achieved the and integrated. This includes planning for complete densities recommended by the

Figure 27: Key Performance Indicators for the Regional Transportation Plan GOODS MOVEMENT

VEHICLE KILOMETRES MODE OF TRANSPORTATION TRAVELLED

GHG EMISSIONS COMMUTE TIME

TRANSIT ACCESS AND EQUITY SAFETY

56 Figure 27: Overall Mode Shares in the GTHA for All Trips (2011) a. MorningFigure 28: Peak Overall Period Mode (6:30 Shares a.m. –in 9:30 the GTHAa.m.) for b. All TripsDay (24 (2011) hour)

Morning Peak Period (6:30 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.) All Day (24 hour)

14.3% 17.3% Transit Transit 5.3% Walk 7.6% 0.9% Walk Bike 0.9% 1.6% Bike School Bus 3.0% 0.4% School Bus Taxi 0.2% Taxi

71.0% 77.5% Auto Auto

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey, 2011.

Performance of the What modes do origins and destinations), trip length, Region’s Transportation we use? and the mode(s) of travel that are System Mode share is a key measure of predominantly available or used This section examines how well how residents are using various (automobiles, transit and active) for the region’s transportation system transportation options – driving trips within the market. is working today, and how its alone, sharing a ride (carpooling and As shown in Figure 29, the single performance might change in the vanpooling), using public transportation largest travel market identified future. To guide the discussion, this (commuter rail, heavy rail, and/or represents trips made within any paper presents seven key performance bus transit), and walking and biking. single- or upper-tier municipality in the indicators that Metrolinx will apply to Figure 28 shows car trips are the GTHA outside of Toronto. In 2031, measure progress toward the goals predominant mode of transportation this market will represent 47% of all of the Regional Transportation Plan for most trips in the GTHA. trips in the GTHA, 82% of which are (see Figure 27). These performance DIFFERENT MARKETS USE forecasted to be made by car. The indicators are useful for providing DIFFERENT MODES. Several markets for travel between single- and a closer look at existing and future distinct travel markets exist within upper-tier municipalities (including conditions. The ability to measure the GTHA, and different strategies Toronto, other than downtown) the performance of the region’s will be needed to address the unique represent an additional 19% of transportation network is improving, transportation challenges that each trips, most of which (87%) are also but remains a work in progress. presents. Travel markets represent, forecasted to be by auto.45 Together, very broadly, the types of trips that these markets represent a challenge, people make throughout the region, and an opportunity, to increase transit and are defined by geography (trip use throughout the GTHA.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 57 FigureFigure 28: 29: GTHA GTHA Mode Mode Shares Shares for for Key Key Travel Markets (a.m. peak period), 1991 – 2031 Travel Markets, 1991 to 2031

Mode Share

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031 1991 2001 2011 2031

Within Downtown To Downtown Within Rest of Between Hamilton or Within Hamilton Between Regional Toronto Regional or any Municipalities or Municipalities Regional Hamilton and Rest of Toronto Municipality Auto Transit Active

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey and MTO Greater Golden Horseshoe Model.

A majority of trips from all parts of the for all trips across the entire day transit ridership levels (see Figure region that are destined to downtown (16%). This relatively high percentage 31) still vary considerably among Toronto are made by transit, and a of cross-border trips is marginally municipalities, with Toronto residents significant number (23% in 2011, higher for work trips (18%) than for taking transit about four times more rising to 25% in 2031) of trips made non-work trips (13%). Nonetheless, often on average than residents of within Toronto use transit. Otherwise, 13% transit share for non-work trips Mississauga or Hamilton, and still the transit mode share is much is an encouraging number, especially eight to ten times more often than lower for trips to, from and within given that GO RER improvements residents of Brampton, which has municipalities outside of Toronto, to off-peak service has not been experienced a 70% growth in total increasing only slightly by 2031. Auto introduced to the region. In addition, transit ridership since 2008.47 Areas of trips can be expected to represent the all-day percentage is only slightly the GTHA that have the lowest transit 94% of all trips between single and below the a.m. peak share (20% ridership today are those that will also upper-tier municipalities outside for work and non-work purposes), experience the greatest rates of future Toronto in 2031, down only slightly presenting an opportunity to highlight population and employment growth: from 97% in 2011.46 Overall, cars can the potential value of fare and service a challenge to the goal of increasing be expected to continue to carry a integration among transit agencies. transit mode share. majority of trips in the GTHA (from TRENDS IN TRANSIT RIDERSHIP. CYCLING IS GROWING AS A 73% in 2011 to 71% in 2031, see Transit ridership across the GTHA MODE OF CHOICE. Walking and Figure 24). has outpaced population growth over cycling carry a substantial share Considering all trips that cross upper- the last decade, particularly for GO of trips within downtown Toronto, or single-tier municipal boundaries, Transit and the other transit systems and to a lesser degree within the including those trips destined for outside the City of Toronto (see Figure rest of Toronto and other GTHA Toronto, the transit share is substantial 30). At the same time, per-capita municipalities. Active modes are

58 Figurenegligible 29: Relativefor longer Growth trips ofto Transit downtown Ridership increasedand Population, tremendously Toronto and from GTHA, 2006­ between downtown and the former 2004Toronto, 2014 and between single and 2011, more than doubling within pre-amalgamated City of Toronto upper-tier municipalities. By 2031, downtown, and increasing by 50% – is 1.7% all day, and drops to about walking and cycling mode shares almost 100% more than in most other 1% for trips within the former City of are expected to grow within Toronto other travel markets. Toronto.48 On average throughout the (even representing a majority of trips GTHA, the taxi mode share is low at TAXI MODE SHARE. Taxi is within downtown Toronto), but not about 0.4% of all trips (see Figure 28). another mode that demonstrates elsewhere. Cycling and walking trips Figures for emerging, private, clear geographical patterns. Taxi all-day for different travel markets on-demand services (such as Uber) trips within downtown Toronto were are shown for 2006 and 2011 in are not known. 2.8% of all trips made all day in Figure 33. The number of cycling trips 2011. The taxi mode share for trips

HALTON MAKES LONG TERM PLANS FOR ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION

HALTON, HALTON REGION Halton Region has begun work on an Active Transportation Master Plan with an outlook to 2031. The Region is aiming to promote non-motorized travel throughout Halton – safely, affordably and sustainably.

Figure 30: Relative Growth in Transit Ridership and Service Area Population, Toronto and GTHA, 2004 – 2014

% Growth

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year

TTC Ridership Rest of GTHA Ridership GO Transit Ridership Toronto Population GTHA Population

Source: Canadian Urban Transit Association.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 59 Figure 31: Annual Transit Ridership per Capita, 2008 – 2014

Annual Ridership Per Capita 200

150

100

50

0 Toronto Mississauga Hamilton Brampton York Region Oakville Durham Burlington Milton Average Annual Growth 0.4% 2.0% 0.1% 5.8% 3.2% 2.0% 4.4% 0.4% 14.7%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Canadian Urban Transit Association.

How much the same, decreasing only slightly do we drive? from 2006 to 2031 (3%).49 Despite this 3% decrease in per capita vkt, Vehicle-kilometres travelled (vkt) the region is expected to increase is an important measure of motor in population by 40%, leading to vehicle use that is directly linked an increase in overall emissions of to several undesirable impacts approximately 36%. However, due including greenhouse gas emissions, largely to improvements in automobile air pollution, traffic noise, road fuel efficiency, GHG emissions due congestion, road repair and to (morning peak) vkt will actually rehabilitation costs, automobile decrease by 25% over this period, operating costs, and personal assuming 5% of vehicles will be exposure to safety risks. Given the electric by 2031. growth expected in the region, the total vkt in the GTHA is forecasted to increase from 17.6 million km in YORK REGION’S MYTRIP ENCOURAGES 2006 to 24.0 million km in 2031 in SUSTAINABLE TRAVEL CHOICES the morning peak period alone, with the committed rapid transit network in YORK REGION place. This increase is primarily due to MyTrip is a Transportation Demand Management pilot program, currently the increase in total population, as the underway, to encourage residents in six newly developed neighbourhoods total vkt per person will remain about to make sustainable travel choices (transit, cycling and walking).

60 What is the impact on vehicle fleet, total vkt is still increasing, alternatives that allow them to reach the climate? potentially offsetting individual vehicle work, education, shopping, health direct emissions efficiency gains. care and social opportunities will One specific concern associated with Further, overall GHG emissions could be essential to reducing reliance on the goal of supporting sustainable continue to rise due to the lifecycle single-occupant vehicles. regional growth is the impact of emissions impacts of personal LINKS TO ENERGY AND population growth and economic vehicle use. development on greenhouse gas EMISSIONS. In addition to (GHG) emissions. LEVERS TO SLOW GROWING promoting a shift in individual travel EMISSIONS. The Regional choices, Metrolinx will release an TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS Transportation Plan can contribute Energy and Emissions Management ARE RISING. Since 1990, to Ontario’s goal of reducing overall Plan in 2016, which includes actions Ontario’s GHG emissions from GHG emissions by promoting a shift for minimizing energy and emissions transportation have risen more than in individual travel choices from driving from its fleet and facilities. The Plan those from any other sector, and to more energy-efficient options like includes initiatives to promote a now represent the largest source of public transit, active transportation, culture of continuous improvement emissions, at 34% of all emissions in carpooling or teleworking, and in energy conservation, as well as the province. Over three-quarters of enabling shorter, fewer and more investing in capital projects and transportation emissions come from efficient car trips by building denser, technology solutions that incorporate cars, trucks, buses and other on-road mixed-use communities. best practices in energy management 50 motor vehicles. and conservation. Providing people with an attractive The Province of Ontario has and flexible suite of transportation succeeded in meeting its 2014 target of reducing total GHG emissions to 6% below 1990 levels, largely through shutting down coal-fired Ontario’s new Climate Change Action The Infrastructure for Jobs and Plan was released in June 2016, the Prosperity Act, 2015 establishes electricity generating plants and the Province’s five-year plan to fight climate planning principles for future slowdown in the manufacturing sector. change, reduce greenhouse gas pollution infrastructure projects that minimize The Province has further adopted the and transition to a low-carbon economy. environmental impacts and are resilient ambitious goals of a 15% reduction Actions in the plan are designed to meet to climate change. in total GHG emissions from 1990 the challenges of reducing transportation emissions. It includes actions that: levels by 2020, a 37% reduction by 2030, and an 80% reduction • reduce emissions from the existing The Metrolinx Sustainability Strategy by 2050.51 Reductions from the vehicle fleet on Ontario’s roads today, (2015-2020) promotes the construction and operation of transportation transportation sector are expected • promote adoption of the non-polluting infrastructure that is more resilient in the to play a significant role in meeting vehicles now and in the future, face of extreme weather events. these targets. • support cycling and transit, and Today, driving is the dominant option • address the movement of goods, Metrolinx will establish a Corporate in many of the GTHA’s fastest- including by truck and rail. Climate Adaptation Plan in 2018 for growing suburban areas, and is likely facilities, practices and protocols. to remain the dominant option into the In addition, the plan will support the future (see Figure 29). Overall vehicle planning and development of low-carbon communities. It includes actions to help kilometres travelled in the GTHA are municipalities strengthen local land-use Metrolinx will release an Energy and forecasted to continue to increase policies to help fight climate change; Emissions Management Plan in 2016 with population growth. Even though to enable local energy planning and for GO vehicle fleet and facilities. vehicles are becoming more fuel mapping; and to reduce traffic congestion and transportation emissions generally. efficient and electric vehicles are likely to make up an increasing share of the

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 61 ELECTRIFICATION OF provide approximately triple the total CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND TRANSIT WILL HELP REDUCE number of train service km in 2031, RESILIENCE ARE ESSENTIAL. EMISSIONS. In addition to compared to just increasing current Transportation authorities throughout encouraging mode shift from single service levels to match population the GTHA need to prepare for the occupant vehicles to more sustainable growth, while emitting only half the extreme weather that climate change modes, the transit system itself is a total greenhouse gases (see will bring, such as more frequent and source of GHGs. Electrification of Figure 32). intense rainstorms and more extreme transit is another way to reduce the temperature fluctuations, which can LINKS TO AIR QUALITY. In GHG impacts of the transportation lead to flooding and other impacts addition to GHGs, motor vehicles system. The GO RER program is on transportation infrastructure. emit air pollutants such as sulphur part of the committed suite of transit Metrolinx and municipalities across oxides, nitrogen oxides, volatile projects. Most of the electrified the region are working to identify organic compounds and particulate portion of the network is planned to climate-related vulnerabilities of their matter. Measures such as Ontario’s operate with 15-minute headways, all transportation infrastructure and other Drive Clean program have led to day (see Section 2.2). interdependent systems, including significant reductions in these smog- electricity and stormwater. The production of electricity in Ontario forming air pollutants and fewer is relatively clean, relying primarily on smog days.52 The electrification of Further, beyond enhancing the nuclear and hydro-electric sources for both personal vehicles and public resiliency of infrastructure itself, generation, and as a result, in 2031, transit, including the GO Rail fleet, will Metrolinx is helping to improve the a diesel locomotive on average will further contribute to reductions in air overall resiliency of the region and the produce about 20 times more GHG pollutants and have a positive impact communities it serves by providing emissions per km than an electric on air quality and health, particularly integrated, multimodal transportation locomotive or Electric Multiple Unit for people living in close proximity to options to build more redundancy into (EMU) train. The current GO RER major transportation corridors. the transportation system. service concept is expected to

Figure 32: GHG Emissions from GO Rail Operations, 2016 – 2031

2016 2031 without GO RER 2031 with GO RER

Diesel Train km (million/year) 4.3 4.7 1.9 Electric Train km (million/year) - - 12.4 Total Train km (million/year) 4.3 4.7 14.3 Emissions from Train Operations (kt CO2-equivalent/year) 126 137 70

Source: Metrolinx, GO Regional Express Rail Initial Business Case.

SMART COMMUTE REACH IS EXPANDING

ALL REGIONS Through partnership and collaboration, Metrolinx and GTHA municipalities have grown the Smart Commute workplace program to more than 300 workplaces with initiatives such as carpool ride-matching, discounted transit passes and telework arrangements.

62 Figure 31: Cycling and Walking Mode ShareFigure for 33:Different Cycling Travel and WalkingMarkets, Mode Share for Different Travel Markets, 2006 – 2011 (all-day) 2006 - 2011 (24 hours)

2006 2011 Cycle Walk Cycle Walk Trips Mode Trips Mode Trips Mode Trips Mode Change Change Share Share Share Share in in Cycling Walking Within Downtown 10,100 4.1% 86,300 34.9% 22,900 7.6% 105,100 35.1% 127% 22% Toronto Between Old City of Toronto 17,500 4.3% 13,100 3.2% 29,700 6.4% 14,100 3.0% 69% 7% and Downtown Within Rest of Old Toronto 13,200 2.6% 76,200 15.3% 20,100 4.0% 74,900 14.8% 53% -2%

Between Rest of Toronto and 5,700 0.6% 8,300 0.8% 11,200 1.0% 8,800 0.8% 96% 7% Old Toronto Within Rest of Toronto 7,000 0.3% 155,900 7.6% 11,500 0.5% 159,900 7.3% 65% 3%

Within GTHA Municipalities 22,200 0.4% 352,800 6.5% 28,300 0.5% 339,100 5.5% 27% -4% Outside Toronto Between GTHA 1,400 0.1% 2,400 0.1% 2,700 0.1% 2,300 0.1% 97% -6% Municipalities

Total 77,100 0.6% 695,000 5.8% 126,300 0.9% 704,200 5.3% 64% 1%

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey.

LEADING LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT DESIGN

MISSISSAUGA, PEEL REGION The City of Mississauga, the Region of Peel and both Credit Valley Conservation Authority and the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority are national leaders in developing measures to reduce flood risk through the incorporation of Low Impact Development design into specific projects such as parking lots and roads.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 63 How long does it take NEW INVESTMENTS IN PUBLIC Is transit available and to get to work? TRANSIT INFRASTRUCTURE does it provide access? WILL HAVE AN IMPACT. Currently The average commuter in the GTHA funded transit projects from The Big A VITAL OPTION. Connecting spends 58.4 minutes a day getting to Move will have an impact on the time people and the places they travel to 53 and from work (across all modes) – spent on transit across the GTHA in by public transit is essential to the longer than almost any other region in 2031 (see Figure 34). For example, in economic and social well-being of the North America. This does not include Toronto these projects are expected region. With significant investments the time spent dropping children off at to reduce the average transit travel in transit infrastructure underway, it school, or stopping to run errands. time from 46 minutes to 44 minutes. is essential that the transit system be The greatest impact was found in York optimized to meet the daily needs of Region, where transit trips would be all segments of the population across reduced from 83 to 70 minutes.54 The the region. In particular, how well the average transit travel time is expected transit system connects where people to improve with the committed live to where their jobs are is a key investments, but different types of indicator of the health of the transit complementary strategies will be system. To be effective and induce needed to have a significant impact on high transit mode splits, transit must overall commute times. not only be fast and reliable, but it also must be convenient, frequent, and take people where they need to go.

Figure 34: Projected (one-way) Travel Time in the a.m. Peak Period for All Trips, by Origin (2031)

Toronto

Hamilton

Peel

Durham

Halton

York

0 20 40 60 80 Minutes

Auto Transit - With funded network Transit - Without funded network

Source: IBI Group using MTO Greater Golden Horseshoe Model.

64 Figure 35: Proximity of Residents and Jobs to Transit (2011)

Residents in Walking Share of Service Job in Walking Share of Service Distance of Transit Area Population Distance of Transit Area Employment Frequent Transit Within Toronto 2,344,000 86 1,370,000 91% Outside Toronto 994,000 25% 653,000 35% GTHA Average 3,337,000 50% 2,023,000 60% Any Transit Within Toronto 2,600,000 96% 1,471,000 97% Outside Toronto 3,314,000 84% 1,558,000 84% GTHA Average 5,915,000 89% 3,029,000 90%

Note: Walking distance is defined as being an 800m straight line distance to rapid transit or a 400m straight line distance to local and frequent transit. Source: IBI Group based on Statistics Canada 2011 Census and National Household Survey, Google Transit.

NETWORK COVERAGE. As shown GTHA are within walking distance of in Figure 35, the GTHA is currently frequent transit (See Figure 35). well-served by transit, with 90% of people and 92% of jobs within ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT. walking distance of some form of Although the vast majority of people transit (400m for local services and in the GTHA have access to some 800m for rapid transit). However, in kind of transit service, the connectivity 2011 only 10% of residents and 20% to employment opportunities that of jobs were within walking distance the transit system provides varies (800m) of rapid transit. With the considerably throughout the region. committed transit network in place, Figure 37 shows the number of jobs this is expected to increase to 21% that are accessible from each part and 29%, respectively, in 2031 (see of the GTHA within 45 minutes by Figure 36). transit (including walk access time, wait time, transfer time(s) and in- The presence of a frequent transit vehicle time). The map highlights many network (transit service operating areas that have high population but every 10 minutes or less) can relatively poor access to employment greatly enhance overall access to opportunities by transit. There are also the transit system and connectivity many areas that have good access to destinations because the time to employment but few residents, penalties associated with long such as the airport corporate centre transfers can impose significant or the large employment centres near barriers on overall mobility. While most Highway 400 at Highway 407 in of Toronto is well-served by a frequent Vaughan, and around Highway 404 at transit network, other than in some Highway 7 in Markham. parts of Brampton and Mississauga, the frequent transit services are Figure 38 shows the number of jobs sparse. About 87% of Toronto in the GTHA that are accessible to residents are within walking distance the average resident of downtown of frequent transit, whereas only about Toronto, Toronto, and the entire GTHA, 25% of residents in the rest of the within 45 minutes and 90 minutes by

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 65 Figure 36: Proximity of Residents and Jobs to the Rapid Transit Network, 2011 and 2031

Residents within Share of Service Jobs within Walking Share of Service Walking Distance Area Population Distance of Area Employment of Rapid Transit Rapid Transit

2011 Within Toronto 615,000 23% 651,000 43% Outside Toronto - 0% - 0% GTHA Average 615,000 9% 664,000 19% 2031 Within Toronto 1,186,000 37% 949,000 57% Outside Toronto 660,000 12% 450,000 17% GTHA Average 1,847,000 21% 1,400,000 33%

Source: IBI Group based on Statistics Canada 2011 Census and National Household Survey, Google Transit. Note: Walking distance is defined as being an 800m straight line distance to rapid transit or a 400m straight line distance to local and frequent transit.

transit. A person living in downtown with Chicago and Philadelphia-area Toronto has access to almost residents having access to 24% of all 600,000 jobs (about 19% of all jobs jobs in their respective regions. Other in the GTHA) on average, whereas a metropolitan areas performed better, person living elsewhere in the GTHA such as Boston (30%), San Francisco has access to only 110,000 jobs (35%) and New York (37%). on average (about 4% of all jobs in From the perspective of the employer, the region), within 45 minutes by the number of people that can access transit. Within 90 minutes by transit, each job, on average, within 45 the average resident of downtown minutes and 90 minutes by transit, has access to 43% of all jobs in the are shown in Figure 39. The average region, and the average resident of the job in downtown Toronto can be GTHA has access to 23% of all jobs accessed by 610,000 people within within the region. A study conducted 45 minutes by transit, about 10% of by the Brookings Institute looked at all residents in the GTHA, and by 2.7 accessibility to transit and employment million people within 90 minutes by in 100 metropolitan areas in the transit (44% of all GTHA residents). United States, including the number On average throughout the GTHA, of jobs accessible within 90 minutes each job can be accessed by 3% and by transit to the average resident of 25% of the GTHA population within 55 each area. Results for similar-sized 45 minutes and 90 minutes by cities were comparable to results transit, respectively. presented in Figure 38 for the GTHA,

66 Figure 37: Number of Jobs Accessible within 45 minutes by Transit (2011)56

*Data for Durham includes access by GO Transit only. Durham Region Transit route data were not available at the time of writing.

Is transit accessible to those who need it the most? In addition to connecting people to DURHAM’S FOCUS ON places, transit serves a critical role in ACCESSIBILITY society in providing affordable access to employment opportunities, health care, education, social, shopping, and DURHAM REGION more. The social equity role of transit Durham Region Transit’s bus fleet does not require that all individuals be became 100% accessible in 2014. treated equally, but rather that they The move toward accessibility also should treated appropriately and brought down the average age of fairly. Equity considerations in DRT buses from 14 to 7 years. More transportation can include considering than 75% of previously inaccessible income disparity, gender, age, bus stops had been paved by 2014, racialized grouping, new immigrants, improving ease of use for all transit physical or mental disability and users. housing insecurity.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 67 Figure 39: Geographies of Need and Good Access to Transit in the GTHA Figure 38: Number of Jobs Accessible to the Average Resident within 45 and 90 minutes by Transit (2011)57

45 MINUTES 90 MINUTES By Residents of Number of Jobs Fraction of Number of Jobs Fraction of Accessible All GTHA Jobs Accessible All GTHA Jobs Downtown Toronto 584,700 19% 1,358,500 43% Toronto 217,200 7% 1,221,100 39% GTHA Average 111,100 4% 722,000 23%

Figure 39: Number of People that have Access to Each Job, on Average, 45 and 90 minutes by Transit (2011)58

45 MINUTES 90 MINUTES To Jobs in Number of People Fraction of Number of People Fraction of that have Access All GTHA Residents that have Access All GTHA Residents Downtown Toronto 608,700 10% 2,681,600 44% Toronto 392,500 6% 2,321,000 38% GTHA Average 214,900 3% 1,502,600 25%

TRANSIT IS BECOMING MORE TRANSIT EQUITY IS A GROWING ACCESSIBLE TO ONTARIANS CHALLENGE. Many of the region’s WITH DISABILITIES. The low-income households lack access to accessibility required by Ontario fast, frequent, reliable service. If they legislation is within reach, but cannot drive or choose not to drive, challenges remain including then they face reduced opportunities inaccessible bus stops in suburban to reach work, shopping and other and rural areas with poor sidewalk activities; if they do drive, then the networks, and older rapid transit costs of owning and operating a stations without accessible ramps, car can reduce their ability to pay doors, escalators, elevators and for food and housing. These equity wayfinding. The Accessibility for considerations are important to Ontarians with Disabilities Act, 2005 the quality-of-life for many GTHA requires Ontario’s transportation residents.61 Figure 39 shows areas systems to be fully accessible by of the GTHA that have good access 2025. Nearly 90% of GO rail stations to transit and areas that have a high and almost half of the GTHA’s subway proportion of residents with low and rapid transit stations are already incomes (areas of need). Many areas accessible, and between 2002 and of need do not currently have good 2010 the proportion of accessible access to transit; this is an issue vehicles in GTHA transit fleets grew that will have to be addressed in the from 31% to 91%.59, 60 updated RTP.

68 One potential consequence of held permanent, full-time jobs.66 help to some degree, but some increasing transit access to areas Precarious employment (working daily commutes cannot be served of need is that property values may one or more part-time or contract effectively by transit, particularly when increase, which can have a detrimental jobs to make ends meet), is the the destinations are widely dispersed. impact on renters and low-income reality for many in the region. TRAVEL BY CHILDREN AND residents.62, 63, 64 Comprehensive Additional research has shown YOUNG ADULTS. The arrival of planning efforts are required to that precarious employment the “echo boom” generation, and counter impacts on affordability disproportionately impacts younger the migration of young adults from that arise from improved access to workers, female workers and Canada and other countries, has led transit, such as with the development immigrants to Canada.67, 6 8 Access to a large increase in the number of of transit hubs.65 The Growth Plan to reliable public transit is particularly young adults in the GTHA. Young includes policies for a mix of housing important for this segment of the adults already use transit more than in the development that occurs around population. older adults (See Figure 41) and new transit corridors to enhance housing Traditional transit services generally cohorts of children and young adults choices for those who rely on transit. cannot provide a sufficient level of seem likely to continue or increase PRECARIOUS WORK. A major service to enable individuals working their high level of ridership. Recent study carried out by McMaster multiple jobs to access multiple studies across North America have University and the United Way found locations. Enhancing off-peak service shown that fewer young people that 50% of all workers in the GTHA and improving transfer points can possess a driver’s license69, though

Figure 40: Geographies of Need and Good Access to Transit in the GTHA (2011)70

Figure 41: Mode Shares for Trips to School by Youth (ages 11 to 17) in the GTHA, 1986 and 2011

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 69 panel studies have suggested the suggestions to increase walking and tend to make trips in off-peak periods younger generation is deferring biking to school, from new programs when transit service is reduced, and obtaining driver’s licenses and car and curriculum updates to greater travel to local destinations rather than ownership rather than giving them consideration of the built environment major employment centres. A lifestyle up entirely.71 Young adults tend to and access to schools (e.g. location that relies on car ownership can be see transit as one part of a “mobility decisions, parking, congestion challenging for seniors, including package” that allows them to choose management). In addition, Toronto’s those on fixed incomes, and can the preferred mode for each trip. four universities have partnered become a problem if personal health Their expectations are leading transit to create StudentMoveTO, which issues lead to the loss of a driver’s systems to improve comfort, provide recently released a report highlighting license. These issues will only grow in flexible schedules and make real-time the opportunity for improving university importance as the GTHA’s population information available. student travel patterns in the region.72 of seniors is expected to more than double by 2041 (see Figure 21). In The GTHA has specific challenges TRAVEL BY SENIORS. Older adults addition to the likely drop in transit with respect to travel by children in the GTHA travel more by car than ridership that will occur as working and young adults. While many they used to; the proportion of trips age adults retire, the demand on children still walk or bike to school, they make by transit has dropped paratransit services by those with this percentage has been declining from 16% to 7% over the last 20 mobility constraints is likely to be (see Figure 42). A growing body of years.73 This is partly because more considerable, although it is possible local collaborative research by Smart seniors are staying in their own homes that new mobility services can help to Commute and municipal, community, as they age, and because more are fill this gap. and academic partners examines the living in suburban areas where using root causes and offers a variety of transit is more difficult. Seniors also

Figure 41: Public Transit Mode Share at Peak Times for Different Age Groups, GTHA (2011)

Mode Share

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 +

Age Group

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey, 2011.

70 HowFigure 43: safe Growth are in Truck Volumes on HighwayMuch 401 Westbound remains to be done to improve The Regional Transportation Plan will our roads? safety for pedestrians and cyclists, look to the successes of Vision Zero including increased awareness to see what lessons can be applied to SAFETY IS IMPROVING. Better campaigns aimed at drivers and improve safety in the region. design of roads and vehicles, and increased enforcement efforts to In addition to infrastructure programs such as Share the Road target impaired drivers, as well as improvements, technological and Reduce Impaired Driving improving infrastructure with better improvements in automobiles are Everywhere (RIDE), are making the lighting and improved signage and likely to lead to fewer car accidents. GTHA’s transportation system safer. potentially separating different road Many of these features have already There has been a significant decline users where possible. Vision Zero been introduced into existing in injuries and fatalities on GTHA is an international road traffic safety automobiles and more safety features roads since the early-1990s, and the initiative that focused on eliminating can be expected in the future. The per-capita rates of injury and death fatalities and serious injuries among all 74 ultimate safety feature might come have dropped as well. road users. in the form of autonomous vehicles, which could remove human error from driving entirely.

Figure 42: Mode Shares for Trips to School by Youth (ages 11 to 17) in the GTHA, 1986 and 201175 Figure 43: Growth in Truck Volumes on Highway 401 Westbound

1986 44.1% Walking 2011 32.5%

1986 2.4% Cycling 2011 1.1%

1986 21.2% Public Transit 2011 14.6%

1986 17.9% School Bus 2011 18.1%

1986 14.2% Car 2011 33.3%

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 71 Pedestrian injuries and fatalities are Does freight move Background research to support the fairly stable but trending downwards safely and efficiently? RTP review identified three key (see Figure 43). One area of issues in the GTHA: congestion, considerable concern is that while THE IMPORTANCE OF GOODS managing land use compatibility, and teenagers and young adults are the MOVEMENT. The GTHA is a reducing the environmental impact of most likely to be hit, in part because major manufacturing, importing and goods movement. they are more likely to be walking in exporting region, and its national The GTHA is experiencing a growth areas with high traffic levels, seniors role as a freight transportation and in truck traffic and volume across the are disproportionately killed.76 These logistics hub helps it attract new region, and across the time of day, trends are similar to Ontario-wide businesses. Modern supply chains are which has an impact on congestion trends. Further research is needed to designed to minimize inventories, and and emissions.77 Figure 44 displays develop this information specifically businesses depend on predictable the truck traffic volume growth on for the region. freight transport. The region’s overall economic success hinges on the Highway 401 – the backbone of the cost-effectiveness of goods movement provincial goods movement network. – especially trucking – for businesses across the GTHA.

Figure 43: Pedestrian Collision Injuries and Fatalities in the City of Toronto, 2003 – 2012 (Total and per 1 Million Trips Travelled)

Total Pedestrain Injury & Fatality Rate Injuries & Fatalities per Million Trips 2500 25

2000 20

1500 15

1000 10

500 5

0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total Pedestrian Injuries & Fatalities Injury & Fatality Rate

Source: City of Toronto Police Motor Vehicle Collision Reports 2003 – 2012; Toronto Tomorrow Survey, 2006, 2011.

72 The Regional Transportation Plan will Figure 44: Growth in Truck Volumes on Highway 401 Westbound involve creation of a new indicator to measure goods movement. In order to better measure progress and guide At Mississauga-Toronto Boundary At Toronto-Durham Boundary freight supportive planning, metrics Average Number Average Number are necessary to evaluate actions of Trucks of Trucks and the broader performance of the 8000 1000 transportation system as it relates to 7000 900 800 goods movement. Potential indicators 6000 700 could relate to: 5000 600 • Travel time (goods travel time), 4000 500 3000 400 • Reliability (buffer index), 300 2000 200 • Cost (transportation and logistics 1000 100 price index), 0 0 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm • Environment (air pollution index), and 1991 1995 2001 2006 2011 • Safety (motorized vehicle road At Mississauga-Toronto Boundary At Toronto-Durham Boundary Average Number incidents involving injuries or Average Number of Trucks fatalities or freight train incidents of Trucks At Mississauga-Toronto Boundary At Toronto-Durham Boundary 8000 involving injuries or fatalities). Average Number1000 Average Number of Trucks of Trucks 7000 900 8000 1000 800 6000 7000 900 700 5000 800 6006000 700 4000 5005000 600 3000 4004000 500 300 2000 3000 400 200 300 1000 2000 100 200 0 1000 0 100 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 0 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 0 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm

1991 1995 2001 2006 2011 1991 1995 2001 2006 2011

Source: David Kriger Consultants Ltd., and CPCS. Regional Transportation Plan Legislative Review Backgrounder: Urban Goods Movement. 2015

PEEL PLANS FOR GOODS MOVEMENT

PEEL REGION The Region of Peel’s Goods Movement Strategic Plan was developed with 23 Actions to encourage efficient transportation of goods within the region. The plan is supported by the Goods Movement Task Force, a public-private partnership that meets regularly to discuss efficiency, competitiveness, and sustainability within the Region.

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 73 APPENDIX 2 Background Research & Analysis to Support the RTP Review

74 Technical Papers Casello, Jeff, and Hall, Daniel. Activity Centre: Integration of the planning and operations of public transit in the GTHA. 2013. • Active Transportation Background Paper. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/rtp/ Prepared by Steer Davies Gleave. 2015. research/Activity_Centre_Report.pdf

• Context Paper on the Regional Economy, Castel, Evan, and Farber, Steve. Benchmarking the Health and Public Demographic Outlook and Land Use. Transit Connection in the GTHA: An Analysis of Survey Microdata. Prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., and IBI Group. 2016. 2016.

• A Shared Vision: Updating the Vision, Goals & Objectives. El-Geneidy, Ahmed, and Buliung, Ron, Ehab Diab, van Lierop, Prepared by Metrolinx. 2016. Dea, Langlois, Myriam and Legrain, Alexander. Non-Stop Equity: Assessing daily intersections between transit accessibility • New Mobility Background Paper. and social disparity across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Prepared by WSP. 2016. Area (GTHA). 2014. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/ • Regional Transportation Plan Legislated Review regionalplanning/rtp/research/Non-stop_equity_Assessing_daily_ Backgrounder: Urban Goods Movement. intersections_between_transit_accessibility_and_social_disparity_ Prepared by David Kriger Consultants Ltd., and CPCS. 2016. across_the_GTHA.pdf

• Regional Transportation Plan Review: Transit Needs and Hertel, Sean, Keil, Roger, and Collens, Michael. Next Stop: Equity – Opportunities for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Routes to fairer Prepared by IBI Group. 2016. transit access in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2016. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/rtp/ • Screening Process for the GTHA Regional Transportation Plan. research/Next_Stop_Equity_Routes_to_fairer_transit_access_in_ Prepared by Steer Davies Gleave. 2016. the_GTHA.pdf • Social Equity & Transit: Background Paper to Inform the Regional Hess, Paul, and Nigro, Jacob. Assessing Walkability: Using built Transportation Plan for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. environmental variables and population distribution to estimate and Prepared by Metrolinx. 2016. model walkability conditions around suburban GO Transit Stations. • The Big Move Priority Actions and Supporting Policy Review. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/rtp/ Prepared by Metrolinx. 2016. research/Assessing_Walkability_Draft_Report.pdf

• Transportation Demand Management Background Paper. Hess, Paul and Smith Lea, Nancy, Bidordinova, Asya and Klassen, Prepared by Steer Davies Gleave. 2015. Jeana. Identifying and Overcoming Barriers to the Implementation of Active Transportation Policies. 2014. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/rtp/ Partnerships with research/Identifying_and_Overcoming_Barriers.pdf Academic Institutions Johal, Sunil, Zon, Noah, Dragicevic, Nevena and Urban, Michael (Mowat Centre). Public Policy Implications of the Sharing Economy for the Buliung, Ron, Colley, Michele, and Salmon, Briana. School Travel in the Transportation Sector. 2016. GTHA: A Report on Trends. 2015. Access at: http://smartcommute. ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/School_Travel_Trends_GTHA_ Mahmoud, M. S., Habib, K. N., and Shalaby, Amer. Demand Modelling En.pdf of Cross-Regional Intermodal Commuting Trips in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2014. Access at: http://www.metrolinx. Buliung, Ron. Phase 1: Children’s Independent Mobility in the Greater com/en/regionalplanning/rtp/research/Demand_Modelling_of_ Toronto and Hamilton Area: Setting the Stage. 2014. Access at: Cross-Regional_Intermodal_Commuting_Trips_in_the_GTHA.pdf http://smartcommute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Phase-1­ Childrens-Independent-Mobility-in-the-GTHA-EN.pdf Mitra, Raktim, and Smith Lea, Nancy. Cycling Behaviour in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2015. Access at: http://www.metrolinx. Buliung, Ron. Phase 2: Children’s Independent Mobility Across the City com/en/regionalplanning/rtp/research/Cycling_Behaviour_in_the_ of Toronto. 2014. Access at: http://smartcommute.ca/wp-content/ GTHA.pdf uploads/2016/03/Phase-2-Childrens-Independent-Mobility-in­ Toronto-EN.pdf Walks, Alan. Assessing and Measuring the Factors Affecting Mobility, Transportation, Accessibility, and Social Need: Barriers to travel Casello, Jeff, Chiu, Kitty and Yeung, Kevin. Quantitative TDM among those with low income and other vulnerable groups. Assessment in a Large Metropolitan Area: Greater Toronto and 2015. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/ Hamilton Area. 2015. Access at: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/ rtp/research/Assessing_and_Measuring_the_Factors_Affecting_ regionalplanning/rtp/research/Quantitative_TDM_Assessment_in_a_ Mobility_Transportation_Accessibility_and_Social_Need.pdf Large_Metropolitan_Area_GTHA.pdf

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 75 Acknowledgements

Metrolinx would like to thank the staff from municipalities and transit agencies, provincial ministries (Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing/Ontario Growth Secretariat), and the consultant and academic teams that made this Discussion Paper possible. Particular thanks to the municipal staff who participate in the RTP Technical Advisory Committee and Municipal Planning Leaders Forum, attended our regional workshops, and continue to provide us with their best advice along the way.

METROLINX MUNICIPAL PROJECT TEAM MUNICIPAL Lin Rogers FORUMS PLANNING & INTERNAL WORKSHOPS Jill Stephen LEADERS FORUM CONTRIBUTORS (FALL 2015) OAKVILLE TRANSIT MUNICIPAL Brian Bridgeman Tom Aylward-Nally Barry Cole TECHNICAL Jane Clohecy Antoine Belaieff CITY OF HAMILTON Kealy Dedman Shahrzad Borjian Joanne Phoenix ADVISORY Danielle Bory Richard Forward Marcus Bowman Sarah Cellini COMMITTEE Ron Glenn Nancy Caetano Anita Fabac REGION OF PEEL Ana Bassios Rob Horne Matthew Canaran Joanne Hickey-Evans Damian Albanese Deepak Bhatt Jennifer Keesmaat Anthony Caruso Trevor Horzelenberg Dan Bennington Jeff Brooks Barb Koopmans Quentin Chiotti Ed John Sean Carnick Alan Brown Daniel Kostopoulos Jodi Ferguson Alissa Mahood Eric Chan Anthony Caruso Dan Labrecque Chris Fong Angela Monaco Wayne Chan Stephen Collins Heather MacDonald Naren Garg Christine Newbold Margie Chung Jacqueline Darwood John MacKenzie Alexandra Goldstein Peter Olak Eric Flora Brian DeFreitas Rino Mostacci Andrea Gusen Steve Robichaud John Hardcastle Michelle Dobbie Martin Powell Antonia Hammer Michelle Sergi Damian Jamroz Kaylan Edgcumbe Ed Sajecki Devin Horne Lorissa Skrypniak Natalie Lapos Eric Flora Michelle Sergi Briana Ingram Lorenzo Mele Paul Freeman Bob Nieuwenhuysen Mary Lou Tanner Michelle Kearns HALTON REGION Ranjit Gill Jason Thorne Kyle Kellam Sabbir Saiyed Lisa De Angelis Tom Goodeve Mary-Frances Turner Lorne Kinsella Adrian Smith Ron Glenn Melissa Green-Battiston Geoff Wright Anna Kramer David Szwarc Alicia Jakaitis Hilary Holden Suniya Kukaswadia Patrick Wong Jeffrey Reid Selma Hubjer Chris Livett RTP INTERNAL David Simpson Richard Hui Jacob Louie STEERING GROUP Dan Tovey CITY OF BRAMPTON Alicia Jakaitis Trevor Anderson Malcolm Mackay Paul Aldunate Barb Koopmans Philippe Bellon David McElroy Jeff Baines Brian Lee CITY OF BURLINGTON Andrew Bodrug Jennifer McGowan Nelson Cadete Chris Leitch Kaylan Edgcumbe Angela Brinklow Becca Nagorsky Brian Lakeman Christine Lee-Morrison Andrea Smith Chris Burke Jennifer Niece Malik Majeed Paul May Leah Smith Carleen Carroll Erik Olaveson Rahul Nargas Rod McPhail Mary Lou Tanner Elise Croll Lisa Orchard Andria Oliveira Richard Nethery Vito Tolone Lorna Day Elli Papaiannou Doug Rieger Joseph Palmisano Joshua Engel-Yan Peter Paz Henrik Zbogar Andrew Pearce BURLINGTON TRANSIT Daniel Fisher Krystal Perepeluk Joe Perrotta Mike Spicer Ersoy Gulecoglu Eric Petersen BRAMPTON TRANSIT Karyn Poad Jennifer Gray Jack Phelan David Stowe Maureen Van Ravens Linda Hall Graham Procter TOWN OF HALTON HILLS Jeffrey Reid Daniel Haufschild Lisa Salsberg Steve Burke Dan Ridgway TOWN OF Elana Horowitz Fred Sztabinski Dan Ridgway Steve Robichaud CALEDON Beth Kapusta Kelly Thornton Maureen Van Ravens Lin Rogers Kant Chawla Jessica Kosmack Josh Tzventarny Melissa Rossi Dean McMillan Nancy Leon Leslie Woo TOWN OF MILTON Prasenjit Roy Hai Quing Xu Stephan Mehr Martin Bateson Sabbir Saiyed Fausto Natarelli AND MEMBERS Heide Schlegl Jill Stephen CITY OF Nadine Navarro OF THE: Susan Tanabe Anna Pace • Transit Leaders Forum MISSISSAUGA Dan Terzievski MILTON TRANSIT Peter Paz • Active and Sustainable Tony D’Alessandro Hamish Campbell Mike Wehkind Bert Peverini School Travel Regional Karen Crouse Henrik Zbogar Angela Dietrich David Pritchard Hub TOWN OF OAKVILLE Bruce Zvaniga Ji-yeon Lee Becky Upfold • TDM Coordinating Colleen Bell Nadeem Zahoor Evie Przybyla Jennifer van der Valk Committee Diane Childs Susan Tanabe Eve Wyatt • Urban Freight Forum Chris Clapham Jane Clohecy Dan Cozzi

76 MIWAY CITY OF TORONTO CITY OF GUELPH CONSULTING Alana Tyers Hilary Holden Kealy Dedman FIRMS Tim Laspa Cathy Kennedy Brook McIlroy with CPCS, and YORK REGION Mike Wehkind Allister McIlveen David Kriger Consultants Ltd. Salim Alibhai Victoria Witkowski Phil Meagher Deloitte Analytics Ann Marie Carroll Ian Panabaker IBI Group, with Hemson Stephen Collins TORONTO TRANSIT Todd Salter Consulting, Glenn Pothier Lauren Crawford COMMISSION GLPI, and Noxon Associates Rob Diprofis Jacqueline Darwood REGION OF Steer Davies Gleave Angela Gibson Mark Mis WATERLOO WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff/ Richard Hui Mitch Stambler John Cicuttin MMM Group Daniel Kostopoulos Lorie Fioze Bruce MacGregor DURHAM REGION Eric Gillespie ACADEMICS Joseph Petrungaro Chris Drimmie John Hill Val Shuttleworth Chris Leitch Geoffrey Keyworth MCGILL UNIVERSITY Karen Whitney Melissa Krone Steve Mayhew Ahmed El-Geneidy Brenna MacKinnon Doug Robertson Ehab Diab YORK REGION Margaret Parkin Prasenjit Roy Myriam Langlois RAPID TRANSIT Alexander Legrain Paul May DURHAM REGION CITY OF CAMBRIDGE Dea van Lierop TRANSIT Brooke Lambert TOWN OF AURORA Paul Smithson Mike Binetti MOWAT CENTRE Ilmar Simanovskis Christopher Norris Sara Ditta CITY OF KITCHENER Nevena Dragicevic Cory Bluhm TOWN OF EAST TOWN OF AJAX Sunil Johal Dorothy McCabe GWILLIMBURY Stev Andis Michael Urban Justin Readman Paul Neuman Hubert Ng Noah Zon Brandon Sloan CITY OF MARKHAM MUNICIPALITY OF NEPTIS FOUNDATION CITY OF WATERLOO Jim Baird CLARINGTON Pamela Blais Philip Hewitson Biju Karumanchery Curry Clifford Marcy Burchfield Brian Lee Nicole Zambri Scott Nevin Joseph Palmisano RYERSON UNIVERSITY Marion Plaunt TOWNSHIP OF CITY OF OSHAWA Raktim Mitra Marg Wouters Helen Break WOOLWICH Gary Carroll John Scarfone UNIVERSITY OF TOWN OF Ranjit Gill NEWMARKET TORONTO Ron Buliung Adrian Cammaert CITY OF PICKERING Evan Castel Jason Unger Jeff Brooks Steven Farber Khandker Nurul Habib TOWN OF RICHMOND TOWNSHIP OF Paul Hess and Nancy Smith HILL UXBRIDGE Lea (TCAT) Ahsun Lee Emilia Gruyters Mohamed Salah Mahmoud Patrick Lee Eric Miller Dan Terzievski TOWN OF WHITBY Amer Shalaby Dhaval Pandya Alan Walks CITY OF VAUGHAN Bob Short Selma Hubjer UNIVERSITY OF John MacKenzie CITY OF BARRIE Roy McQuillin WATERLOO Kevin Bradley Jeff Casello Andrew Pearce Brent Forsyth Anna Sicilia Kitty Chiu Merwan Kalyaniwalla Kevin Yeung Steve Rose TOWN OF Ralph Scheunemann WHITCHURCH­ Jason Zimmerman YORK UNIVERSITY Michael Collens STOUFFVILLE Sean Hertel Rob Flindall TOWN OF BRADFORD Roger Keil Steven Kemp WEST GWILLIMBURY Adam Alessandrini Ryan Windle

Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 77 List of Figures

Figure 1 Map of the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, Figure 25 Relative Morning Peak Period Travel Demand for Including the GTHA and GO Service Area 9 Different GTHA Travel Markets, 1991 – 2031 54

Figure 2 Progress on Implementation 13 Figure 26 Relationship of Urban Density to Transit Mode Share by GTHA Ward, (2011) 55 Figure 3 GTHA Rapid Transit Network in 2008 17 Figure 27 Key Performance Indicators for the Figure 4 GTHA Rapid Transit Network in 2025 (Funded and Regional Transportation Plan 56 Completed Projects) and Projects under Development 17 Figure 28 Overall Mode Shares in the GTHA for All Trips (2011) 57 Figure 5 Original and Proposed Updated RTP Goals 23 Figure 29 GTHA Mode Shares for Key Travel Markets, Figure 6 RTP Screening 24 1991 – 2031 58 Figure 7 Potential Transit Solutions for Different GTHA Markets 26 Figure 30 Relative Growth of Transit Ridership and Population, Figure 8 Existing and Future Transit Supportive Areas, Toronto and GTHA, 2004 – 2014 50 GTHA (2011 and 2031) 28 Figure 31 Annual Transit Ridership per Capita, 2008 – 2014 60 Figure 9 Areas of Opportunity to Expand Frequent Figure 32 Cycling and Walking Mode Share for Different Travel Transit Service Anchored by GO RER 29 Markets, 2006 – 2011 (24 hours) 62 Figure 10 Mobility Hubs Designated in The Big Move 31 Figure 33 GHG Emissions from GO Rail Operations, Figure 11 Mode Share of Household Trips in the GTHA, 2016 – 2031 63 by Cycling Potential, 2011 32 Figure 34 Projected (one-way) Travel Time in the a.m. Peak Figure 12 Geographic Distribution of Cycling Mode Shares in the Period for All Trips, by Trip Origin (to 2031) 64 GTHA, by Trip Origin (2011) 33 Figure 35 Proximity of Residents and Jobs to Transit, 2011 65 Figure 13 GO Bus Passenger Time Savings with HOV3+ 36 Figure 36 Proximity of Residents and Jobs to the Rapid Transit Figure 14 Comparison of Trends in Transit Operating Costs, Network, 2011 and 2031 66 Revenues and Ridership, 2008 – 2014 39 Figure 37 Number of Jobs Accessible within 45 minutes Figure 15 Relationship of Transit Operating Cost to by Transit (2011) 67 Urban Density, GTHA (2014) 40 Figure 38 Number of Jobs Accessible to the Average Resident Figure 16 Operating Cost per Revenue Passenger within 45 and 90 minutes by Transit 68 in 2008 and 2014 41 Figure 39 Number of People that have Access to Each job, on Figure 17 Growth in Car-Sharing Membership in Canada 43 Average, by Transit 68

Figure 18 Electric Vehicles in the Incentive Program and Figure 40 Geographies of Need and Good Access Charging Infrastructure at GO Stations 45 to Transit in the GTHA, 2011 69

Figure 19 Projected Growth in GTHA Population 49 Figure 41 Public Transit Mode Share at peak Times for Different Age Groups, GTHA (2011) 70 Figure 20 Proportion of Dwelling Units by Type Built between 2001 and 2011 50 Figure 42 Mode Shares for Trips to School by Youth (ages 11 – 17) in the GTHA, 1986 and 2011 71 Figure 21 Proportion of GTHA Population by Age Group, 2016 – 2041 51 Figure 43 Total Pedestrian Collision Injuries and Fatalities, 2003 – 2012 (per 1 Million Trips Travelled) 72 Figure 22 Total Employment and Office Employment in the GTHA 51 Figure 44 Growth in Truck Volumes on Highway 401 Westbound 73 Figure 23 Accessibility to Labour Force within 45 minutes by Transit 52

Figure 24 Growth in Total Morning Peak Period Trips 53

78 References

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Discussion Paper for the Next Regional Transportation Plan 79 35 Neptis Foundation. Planning for Prosperity: Globalization, 60 Metrolinx. Metrolinx Annual Accessibility Plan 2012. Access at Competitiveness and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden http://www.metrolinx.com/en/aboutus/publications/Accessibility_ Horseshoe. 2015. Plan_2012_EN.pdf

36 Hemson Consulting Ltd. Context Paper on the Regional Economy, 61 Hertel, S., Keil, R., & Collens, M. Next Stop: Equity – Routes to fairer Demographic Outlook and Land Use. 2016. transit access in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2016.

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49 Ontario Ministry of Transportation. MTO Greater Golden Horseshoe 69 Sivak, M., & Schoettle, B., University of Michigan Transportation Model: V3. 2016. Research Institute. Recent Decreases in the Proportion of Persons 50 Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Ontario’s Climate Change with a Driver’s License across All Age Groups. 2016. Strategy. 2015. 70 Metrolinx. Social Equity & Transit: Background Paper to Inform the 51 Ibid. Regional Transportation Plan for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2016. 52 Ibid. 71 Delbosc, A. Delay or forgo? A closer look at youth driver licensing 53 Statistics Canada. 2011 National Household Survey. 2013. trends in the United States and Australia. Transportation (2016): 54 IBI Group. Regional Transportation Plan Review: Transit Needs and 1-8. Opportunities for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2016. 72 StudentMoveTO. An overview of early findings. 2016. Access 55 Tomer, A., Kneebone, E., Puentes, R., & Berube, A. Missed at http://www.studentmoveto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ Opportunity: Transit and Jobs in Metropolitan America. Metropolitan StudentMoveTO.Handout_4Uni.v2.pdf Policy Program at Brookings. 2011. 73 Metrolinx. The Big Move Baseline Monitoring Report. 2013. 56 IBI Group. Regional Transportation Plan Review: Transit Needs and 74 Ibid. Opportunities for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. 2016. 75 Metrolinx. School Travel in the GTHA: A Report on Trends. 2015. 57 Ibid. Access at http://smartcommute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ 58 Ibid. School_Travel_Trends_GTHA_En.pdf 76 59 Toronto Transit Commission. Accessible Transit Services Plan ­ Bassil, K., Rilkoff, H., Belmont, M., Banaszewska, A., & Campbell, M. 2012 Status Report. Access at http://www.ttc.ca/TTC_Accessibility/ Pedestrian and Cyclist Safety in Toronto. Report for Toronto Public Accessible_Transit_Services_Plan/Accessible_Service_Transit_ Health. 2015. Plan_2012.jsp 77 David Kriger Consultants Ltd., & CPCS. Regional Transportation Plan Legislative Review Backgrounder: Urban Goods Movement. 2015.

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