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Highlights of the International Conference on Financial Cycles HIGHLIGHTS International Conference on Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience Sydney, Australia 8–9 September 2016 HIGHLIGHTS International Conference on Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience Organized by the Asian Development Bank in collaboration with the Institute of Global Finance, University of New South Wales and sponsored by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bloomberg Sydney, Australia 8–9 September 2016 IIIII Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2016 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org; openaccess.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2016. Publication Stock No. ARM168592-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content or permission to use. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China; and “Korea” as the Republic of Korea. All photos are from ADB and IGF. CONTENTS Message from the Asian Development Bank . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. vii Message from the Institute of Global Finance . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. viii Conference Highlights . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 Opening Session .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3 Session 1: Financial, Commodity, and Business Cycles: Linkage and Transmission of Risks in Asia .. 5 Session 2: Financial Interconnectedness, Spillovers and Contagion, Propagation Mechanisms, and the Implications for Systemic Risks in Asia . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 6 Day 1 Policy Panel . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7 Session 3: (Financial Authorities Session): Financial Network Analysis for Systemic Risks and Lessons Learnt from the Systemic Risks and Interconnectedness . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 10 Session 4: Financial Globalization, Regional Financial Integration and Stability, Predictive Indicators of Vulnerability in Asia . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 13 Day 2 Policy Panel .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 14 Closing Session .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 17 Contents | v vi Ň Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience vi | Conference Highlights Message from the Asian Development Bank n behalf of the Asian Development Bank, I would like to thanks all the participants to this very important Conference on Financial Cycles, Systematic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for OResilience. I am delighted that the conference has been organized by ADB’s Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department with the Institute of Global Finance, University of New South Wales. The conference will form the foundation for one of ADB’s flagship publications, the Asian Economic Integration Report 2017, by strengthening our understanding of the mechanisms and channels of systemic risks build up and spread across different financial networks. In today’s era of globalized finance, we have seen how episodes of financial crisis and its spillovers have destabilized domestic, regional, and global financial systems. In our highly interconnected global financial world, resilience cannot be achieved by individual countries or one region alone. The conference provided a venue for fruitful discussion among members of the academia, central bankers, regulators, and international financial institutions to build resilience and safeguard stability in the region. I particularly want to thank our keynote speakers, Professor Robert Engle of the New York University Stern School of Business, a Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Stijn Claessens of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System. I would like to thank all our distinguished panelists and presenters for responding to our call for papers and related research. It is encouraging to see your enthusiasm to dissect financial vulnerabilities and study policy options in light of the increased regional and global financial interconnectedness. I would like to express my special appreciation to the honorable Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), for taking part in this conference, and for the RBA’s sponsorship of this conference, together with Bloomberg. Again, I want to thank all participants representing academia, governments, financial authorities, and international financial organizations from Asia and around the world, for your support and knowledge contributions. It was a very productive and successful two days. Bambang Susantono Vice-President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development Asian Development Bank Contents | vii viii Ň Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience Message from the Institute of Global Finance n behalf of the Institute of Global Finance, UNSW Business School, I thank all participants and guests of the International Conference on Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, OInterconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience. I hope our international guests were able to appreciate the city of Sydney. The financial landscape has changed since the recent global financial crisis. Significant steps have been taken to address some of the factors that could ensure greater financial resilience globally, regionally and nationally. One of the significant challenges of our generation is to manage an increasingly interdependent and interconnected global financial system that could pose significant financial risk, in the wake of another major financial crisis. This conference is not a one-off event butrather part of a process of study, analysis and data mining of a major project that started several months ago with the aim of understanding the financial challenges and opportunities facing Asian countries, as policy makers and market participants attempt to understand those factors that could mitigate systemic risk and financial instability in the wake of another major financial crisis. It has been an honor to work alongside the Asian Development Bank to have brought you this program which included so many eminent professionals from the regional and international financial community. We are also grateful for the support and sponsorship of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bloomberg for this conference. Global financial stability and prosperity is one of the most significant issues of our times. The importance of examining the forces that both promote and challenge stability and prosperity locally, regionally and internationally cannot be overstated. By collaborating across organizations and nations, it is my hope that we will cultivate financial systems that will encourage long- term global prosperity. I trust that the conference had been stimulating and enjoyable, and provided you with the opportunity to build beneficial academic, corporate and social networks. Thank you for contributing to the success of this conference. Fariborz Moshirian Director, Institute of Global Finance viii | Conference Highlights Conference Highlights he global financial crisis highlighted that unbridled financial flows have potential to build up systemic risk and the spread of instability in an era of globalized finance and tightly This conference interconnected financial institutions. When emerging economies are poorly regulated and supervised, financial deepening can lead gathered leading Tto excessive risk-taking and high leverage, amplifying the effects of financial academics, central cycles on economic stability. Financial interconnectedness can also lead to systemic risks and financial contagion if failure or distress in one or more bankers and financial financial institutions causes repercussions throughout domestic, regional, and global financial systems. regulators, and The global financial crisis has prompted regulators and supervisory international financial authorities around the world to develop new models and tools to analyze financial networks and to assess risks associated with financial cycles organizations, to and interconnectedness as they attempt to safeguard monetary and financial stability. discuss the theory, practices, and This conference gathered leading academics, central bankers and financial regulators, and international financial
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