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Right Wing Extremists in the Us, 2015-2020

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Right Wing Extremists in the Us, 2015-2020 RIGHT WING EXTREMISTS IN THE US, 2015-2020 DR. ROBERT A. PAPE (PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR) DR. KEVEN RUBY (SENIOR RESEARCH DIRECTOR) The University of Chicago Presented to Division of the Social Sciences 5828 S University Ave Suite 418, Chicago, IL 60637 General Audience (773) 834-0770 [email protected] Updated July 2020 SOCIAL MEDIA, PROPAGANDA, AND RIGHTWING TERRORISM IN THE US Project Background 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 2 WHAT EXPLAINS RWEX MOBILIZATION TO VIOLENCE? ▪ Purpose: CPOST seeks to understand the role of role of groups, social media, and propaganda in the mobilization to violence among right-wing domestic terrorists in the US ▪ Contribution to Mission – Inform on the changing threat due to the COVID-19 pandemic ▪ Project Deliverables – Database of US REMVE and anti-government perpetrators based on detailed profiles covering demographics, biography, and use and role of propaganda – PowerPoint report, comparable methodology to American Face of ISIS Report 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 3 WHAT IS INCLUDED IN RWEX? ▪ Racially and Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism (REMVE) ▪ Anti Government Extremism (AG) 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 4 RWEX LANDSCAPE IN THE US TODAY Extreme Right-Wing Typology, though in practice significant overlap White Supremacist Anti-Government Fundamentalist/Religious – Belief in natural – Conspiracies about the US – Use sacred texts to justify racial/cultural hierarchy government turning into a violence and mobilize support New World Order – Impose social and political – Christian identity justifies control over non-white – Concerned about Aryan superiority communities erosion of civil liberties like gun – Maintain hierarchical rights – Ideology based on racism, structures and pre-plan attacks segregation, xenophobia, and – Aim attacks at state and with multiple perpetrators nativism federal officials and buildings – Examples: Army of God – Examples: Ku Klux Klan – Examples: Sovereign Citizens Hammerskin Nation and Oath Keepers 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 5 OVERLAPPING IDEOLOGIES CASES REMVE meets AG meets Religious Joel Schrimsher Christopher Hasson Michael Hari – Plotted to set fire to a mosque, shoot at a – Plotted to attack various “leftist” politicians, – Planned to bomb a mosque in Minnesota synagogue, and mail a bomb to the Federal judges, and professors – Founded his own militia: the White Rabbits Reserve – Identifies as a “White Nationalist” – Believes Muslims are making America “un- – Heavily engaged with Nazi propaganda, and engaged with numerous pro-Russian, Christian” racist photos, and footage of shootings pro-fascist, and neo-Nazi literature online – Has described America as a “completely – Openly posted to Twitter about his plans illegitimate police state” 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 6 BUILDING THE CPOST RWEX PERP DATABASE Research Methods 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 7 1. IDENTIFYING CASES AND PERPETRATORS, 2015-2020 Used 4 existing databases to find REMVE and AG plotters and attackers, 307 possible events Database Name Scope Updated Contains Cases New America Narrow Real-time Major REMVE attackers only 9 Foundation NJ Homeland Security Mix of REMVE and anti-govt plotters and Medium Yearly 51 Yearly Reports attackers Global Terrorism Medium Yearly Mix of REMVE and anti-govt attackers 89 Database Mix of REMVE and anti-govt plotters and ADL Broad Real-time 158 attackers, and also personal disputes TOTAL 307 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 8 2. SELECTING CASES FOR IN-DEPTH PROFILES Getting from 307 possible events to 84 events and 108 associated perpetrators ▪ Chose cases from the 307 AG and REMVE Distribution of 108 RWEX perps by events with 1) clear ideology AND 2) violent mobilization year intent linked to ideology 6 ▪ Common exclusions: 5 – Non-ideological attacks. ADL catalogs all lethal incidents committed by right-wing extremists 3 3 ▪ So, a domestic assault by a member of the Aryan 2 Brotherhood would not count for our purposes 1 1 1 1 1 1 – Anti-government, but not RWEX: anarchists and Antifa – Threats but no actual plot – Harassment or hate speech but no attack or plot ▪ Final tally of clear US RWEX cases/perpetrators – 84 events and 108 associated perpetrators (74 REMVE, 34 AG) YES NO 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 9 3. COLLECTING INFORMATION ON PERPETRATORS Collected court documents, social media profiles, and news reporting on each perpetrator ▪ 92 perpetrators were indicted Availability of Court Documents – Challenge: many local cases where court docs 36.1% are not readily available online – Solution: contacted local courts and reporters 28.7% for court docs 26.9% ▪ Court data – Criminal complaint: offence severity and nature of the crime – Sentencing memorandum: perpetrator’s background information 8.3% – Court transcripts: perpetrator quotes related to motive – Affidavit: witness testimony and evidence (often including online activity) PARTIAL COURT NO COURT DOCS FULL COURT DOCS NOT INDICTED DOCS 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 10 FINDINGS 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 11 OVERALL FINDINGS: DEMOGRAPHICS OF ALL 108 CASES REMVE and AG perps mostly male, mid-30s and half had a prior criminal record ▪ 108 total included profiles ▪ Mostly Male (94%) – 74 REMVE ▪ Average age at mobilization: 34 – 34 AG – US-born ISIS perpetrators mobilized between 2015 and 2019 were younger, average age 29 ▪ 63 attacks, 45 plots ▪ High proportion of prior criminal record – 50 total attacks with casualties – 48% prior criminal record, 30% prior incarceration – 13 total attacks without casualties – Compared to ISIS perps 36% / 18% ▪ Relatively uneducated, only 19% some college – ISIS indictees were more educated, 31% some college ▪ Mental illness: 19% diagnosed, 21% speculated – ISIS 14% diagnosed 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 12 COMPARING REMVE AND ANTI-GOVT DEMOGRAPHICS Demographics Attacks – Anti-government slightly more likely to have – Anti-government more likely to be plots prior record (54% vs. 40%) disrupted by law enforcement – Mental illness more prevalent in anti- – REMVE has much higher percentage of government cases (28% diagnosed vs. 20%) attacks with casualties – Anti-government offenders more religious (41% vs. 26%) Offense Type AG REMVE – Anti-government more likely to have had Attacks w/ casualties 17.6% 59.5% prior military service (24% vs. 15%) Attacks w/o casualties 32.4% 2.7% – Both very high indictment rates, but REMVE Plots 50% 37.8% more likely to be indicted (88% vs. 79%) 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 13 MOTIVATIONS Largely social, but even with court records, data still sparse ▪ Distribution of motivations is similar for Motivation anti-government cases and REMVE cases 14 ▪ REMVE: 34% social, 10% heroic, 16% mixed 11 ▪ Anti-govt: 24% social, 9% heroic, 12% mixed ▪ The similar distribution of social & heroic motives is surprising considering the individualistic nature of the anti- 5 government ideology, especially compared 4 to the more group-organized REMVE sphere MOVEMENT NO GROUP ORGANIZATION CELL GANG 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 14 THE SOCIAL MOTIVE: EXAMPLES REMVE Case AG Cases ▪ Robert Bowers conducted a deadly shooting ▪ Christopher Todd Campbell plotted to attack spree at a Pittsburgh Synagogue killing 11 the US government to prevent martial law – Shared a post on Gab.com just before the attack – Stated that “to even consider the thought of an writing, “HIAS (Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society) invasion on American soil by the largest country likes to bring invaders in that kill out people. I in the world [China]… was devastating … all I knew can’t sit by and watch my people get was I was going to try to prepare to defend my slaughtered. Screw your optics I’m going in.” country and family and pray to God it would never come to that”. 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 15 THE HEROIC MOTIVE: EXAMPLES REMVE Cases AG Case ▪ Connor Climo plotted attack on ▪ Eric Reinbold manufactured and synagogue in Nevada. stockpiled bombs – Joined the FKD because the group ”offered him glory and the ability to contribute his – Wrote manifesto titled ”How knowledge of constructing explosive devices one (1) person Can make a difference: toward a 'righteous' cause.” Instruction Booklet at the ▪ Nolan Brewer set fire to a synagogue in HCU (homemade commando university).” Indiana. Wrote that “Media will label you a serial – After, Brewer wrote “Holy S. We made CNN, killer, but real folk will call you a hero.” It Fox IndyStar WTHR… Mike Pence even was an anti-government survivalist tweeted about us.” Brewer told the FBI “if fantasy book inspired by movies. there were news headlines ... it would be able to spark more radicalism.” 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 16 ANTI-GOVERNMENT GROUPS A mix of militias and mobilizing movement ideologies – Organizations: Organized national militia Movements are key in the anti- groups such as the Oath Keepers and Three government space Percenters (III%) – Sovereign Citizen Movement – Cells: Small local militias such as the White ▪ Shared ideology that they choose which laws Rabbit Militia to obey – Movements: Not groups, but clear ideological – Boogaloo Movement boundaries and shared online affinity ▪ Boogaloo isn’t an org, but a mobilizing meme – Gangs: no cases ▪ Online joke about a second civil war 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 17 BOOGALOO CASES Creating shared identity and cohesion online Steven Carrillo Aaron Swenson Loomis, Parshall, and Lynam – Air Force Sergeant who killed two – Arrested while livestreaming – Arrested while planning to police officers in California in himself threatening to “ambush firebomb police during a BLM May/June 2020 and execute” a police officer protest – Used boog phrases like “I – Mobilized by police killing of – Heavily involved in Boogaloo became unreasonable” and “stop Duncan Lemp and mourned him Facebook groups. Shared IRA the duopoly“ on social media training materials – Hoped to use BLM protests as cover for anti-police violence: “Use their anger to fuel our fire” 9-JUL-2020 cpost.uchicago.edu 18 REMVE GROUPS Mostly white supremacist gangs and local groups ▪ Gangs – Skinhead or prison gangs such as the AV Skins, Aryan Brotherhood, Hammerskin Nation, European Kindred, etc.
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