Feature Article Seeing Through the Smog: Understanding the Limits of Chinese Air Pollution Reporting

FEATURE ARTICLE Seeing Through the Smog: Understanding the Limits of Chinese Air Pollution Reporting By Steven Q. Andrews Although the debate over exact statistics rages, as many as 400,000 premature deaths could be avoided each year if Chinese cities met domestic air quality standards. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has been promoting environmental information disclosure as a new policy tool, both to raise public awareness of pollution problems and to strengthen enforcement of pollution control laws. Two of the most extensive environmental information disclosure initiatives have been public air quality reports and ranking Chinese cities by air quality. Utilizing a comprehen- sive dataset of weekly (1998-2000) and daily (2000-2007) Air Pollution Index (API) reports, this paper not only examines air quality trends, but also evaluates the limits of the API system to accurately communicate air quality problems. The API system has been weakened both by irregularities in the monitoring and the central government’s move in June 2000 to relax national air quality standards. This paper discusses the significant discrepancies that exist between analyzed pollution trends and reported progress in the Ministry of Environmental Protection’s State of the Environment reports and Annual City Air Quality Rankings. Misinterpretation and/or manipulation of public air quality reporting in China have hindered the public awareness that it is ostensibly intended to promote. The Olympics held in Beijing in 2008 increased international and domestic awareness and concern for the quality of China’s air and also exposed many of the inconsistencies between the API system and actual impacts on human health. AIR POLLUTION QUANDARIES IN may say, the government did a bad job. Why did you CHINESE CITIES give us such bad air?” (U.S. Embassy, 1998). Despite initial insecurity on the part of officials, Although many cities in China have monitored air since 1998, every day millions of people throughout pollution for decades, this information was not pub- China read, watch, or hear air pollution reports pub- licly released until the late 1990s. In describing the lished in newspapers, broadcast on television, and publishing of weekly air quality reports that began announced on the radio. An environmental official February 28,1998, in Beijing, The New York Times in Beijing heralded the transparency noting that, reported: “For 20 years, local officials carefully mea- “Releasing the numbers is a revolutionary concept sured this city’s air pollution levels and equally care- for the people and the government. We were wor- fully hid the results—fearing that the truth might ried that people would complain that air pollution is tarnish the capital’s image or lead to social unrest” too serious. Instead, the consciousness of people has (Rosenthal, 1998). Nature magazine (1998) accom- been raised. And they feel the Government trusts panied a description of Beijing’s weekly air quality them with the facts” (Rosenthal, 1998). reports with a cartoon depicting two people in a cloud of smog commenting: “At least in Beijing we API TO BLUE SKY: WHAT now have weekly pollution reports.” “Yes. If only we THE PEOPLE HEAR could see them.” An official in Shanghai hesitant about the release of this information observed, “If we China’s pollution information includes reports on simply release the information to the public, the dis- the atmospheric concentrations of three pollut- advantages would outweigh the advantages….They ants: particulate (TSP from 1998-2000, and PM10 WoodroW WIlSon IntErnatIonal CEntEr for SCholarS 5 from 2000-2007); nitrogen oxide (NOx from 1998- standards and reporting, this article analyzes the 2000 and NO2 from 2000-2007); and sulfur diox- trends in 3,249 weekly and 171,101 daily API re- ide (SO2), which are averaged over 24-hour periods ports published online by MEP (www.mep.gov. and multiple monitoring stations to produce a single cn) between 1998 and 2007. Beginning in 1998, API value for major cities ranging from 1 (clean) to only a handful of cities reported weekly monitor- 500 (hazardous). The APIs are calculated based on ing data, but by mid-2000 46 cities were publishing the average concentration of each pollutant, but only API reports. In 2000, MEP began recording daily the highest API is reported by China’s Ministry of reports in 42 cities, and expanded the program to Environmental Protection (MEP). Higher values 86 cities by 2007. This article concludes with some indicate greater potential impact on human health. comparison of the U.S. experience in developing air An API value of 100 or less indicates attainment of measurement tools and rankings. China’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for residential and commercial areas and EBB AND FLOW OF PUBLIC satisfactory air quality. However, both China’s 1996 POLLUTION INFORMATION and revised 2000 NAAQS are far below World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and public Access and open discussion of pollution informa- reporting does not take ozone and fine particulate tion in China has increased over the past decade, into account.1 but there are times when some agency or individual In the capital of Beijing, as well as in many other deems certain information too sensitive. China’s Chinese cities, days that meet the national standard groundbreaking Green GDP project met an early are called “blue sky” days (BOCOG, 2006; Shanghai demise after provincial officials stood up against Daily 2006; Chongqing EPB, 2007; People’s Daily, efforts to publicize the local health and economic 2001; Invest Guangzhou, 2007). The annual num- effects of pollution. Journalists, who since the late bers of these attainment days have become the most 1990s had been given fairly free reign to report on watched public metric of China’s air quality progress pollution issues were constrained significantly in the (Beijing EPB, 2006; Shanghai EPB, 2006; Wuhan aftermath of the 2005 benzene spill on the Songhua EPB, 2006). Although air quality in Chinese cities River, and were instructed to put a positive spin on was previously ranked based on a compilation of an- Beijing’s pollution crisis in the months leading up nual average pollution concentrations, the 2006 rank- to the 2008 summer Olympics. 2008 saw the pas- ings evaluated cities based on the percentage of days sage of freedom of information legislation, under meeting the national air quality standards (SEPA, which MEP passed measures to promote access to 2007). These changes in the rankings criteria have environmental information, which will potentially placed additional pressure on local officials to meet give journalists more freedom to report on pollu- blue sky targets, as the results are published as part of a tion problems once again (Gang, 2008). “name and shame” approach (OECD, 2007). In 1994, 20 percent of Chinese cities with a INCONSISTENT RELEASE population of over 2 million exceeded the Chinese OF HEALTH EFFECTS national standard for nitrogen oxides, and this number would increase to 82 percent in 1998. (He In 1997, the World Bank’s seminal study of China’s & Chang, 2000). In 2005 and 2006, not a single environmental quality—Clear Water, Blue Skies— one of the 559 cities monitored exceeded the na- estimated that 178,000 premature deaths could be tional nitrogen oxides standard (SEPA, 2006 & avoided per year if China met its own national air 2007), a reflection of a weakened revised standard quality standards (World Bank, 1997). Officials in rather than reduced pollution. MEP continued to cite this shocking estimate for Publicizing the API and where cities rank in years ( Johnson, 2005). The long-awaited update, Cost terms of air quality keeps the public informed of of Pollution in China: Economic Estimates of Physical air quality and potential health threats. However, Damages, done by the World Bank in collaboration misleading data presentation and revised laws have with MEP is still in its conference edition, but in 2007 prevented the API system from accurately com- the updated estimates of mortality and morbidity municating air quality problems to the public. To in China due to air pollution were removed (World better understand the challenges and opportuni- Bank, 2007). According to the United Kingdom’s ties that exist for China to strengthen air quality Financial Times, the Chinese government deemed the 6 ChIna EnvIronmEnt SEries 2008/2009 Figure 1. Primary Pollutants Figure 2. Primary Pollutants of Concern 1998–2000 of Concern 2000–2007 3,249 Weekly Reports Nitrogen 171,101 Daily Reports Nitrogen Oxides (NO ) 46 Cities (January 1998–June 2000) 2 Oxides (NOX) 86 Cities (June 2000–Dec 2007) 11% 0.3% Sulfur Dioxide (SO ) Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 2 8% 8.0% “Excellent” Air “Excellent” Air Quality, API <= 50 Quality, API <= 50 Particulate (TSP) Particulate (PM10) 16% 19.1% 65% 72.6% Source: Author’s calculations from MEP online monitoring reports estimate of 350,000 to 400,000 premature deaths per lines.2 The environmental health threats of these year due to urban air pollution as too sensitive, which main pollutants are discussed below: could lead to social unrest (BBC, 2007). Recent research published in the scientific • Particulate (PM10/TSP)—Particulate matter in- literature by professors at the Department of cludes both solids and liquids that can be either Environmental Science at Peking University calcu- emitted directly or formed in the atmosphere lated mortality from ambient air pollution in China when other pollutants react. Particles less than at 281,361 for 2004 (Zhang et al., 2007a). The 100 micrometers are called total suspended same research group estimated that air pollution in particulate (TSP); less than 10 micrometers 2004 resulted in 23,733 premature deaths for the are called coarse particulate (PM10), and less city of Beijing alone (Zhang et al., 2007b). than 2.5 micrometers are called fine particulate (PM2.5).

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