A30 Chiverton to Carland Cross Stage 3 Local Model Validation Report January 2018 Highways England A30 Chiverton to Carland Cross Stage 3 Local Model Validation Report January 2018 x x x C:\Users\jordan.payne\AppData\Roaming\OpenText\OTEdit\EC_Conte ntServer\c12424245\HA551502-WSP-GEN-0000-RE-TR-00003- 29 October 2015 Highways England Temple Quay House, 2 Temple Quay, Bristol, BS1 6PN WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff, The Forum, Barnfield Road, Exeter EX1 1QR, United Kingdom T +44 (0)1392 229700 A30 Chiverton to Carland Cross Local Model Validation Report Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description 01 20/07/2017 Martin Drapier Michael Rolfe / Ian Beavis First Draft Gomis / Joe Payne Holly Moon 02 25/08/2017 Martin Drapier Michael Rolfe / Ian Beavis Final Draft Gomis / Joe Payne Holly Moon 03 01/12/2017 Martin Drapier Michael Rolfe / Ian Beavis Final Draft Gomis / Joe Payne Holly Moon 04 22/01/2018 Martin Drapier Holly Moon Ian Beavis Final Draft Gomis Information class: Standard This document has been prepared on behalf of Highways England by Mott MacDonald Sweco JV for Highways England's This document has been prepared on behalf of Highways England Project Support Framework (PSF) 2011-2016. It is issued for by WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff. the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff, The Forum, Barnfield Road, Exeter EX1 1QR, United Kingdom T +44 (0)1392 229700 A30 Chiverton to Carland Cross Local Model Validation Report Content Chapter Title Page Executive Summary i Summary of Content ____________________________________________________________________________ i 1. Study Overview 5 1.1 Background ________________________________________________________________________ 5 1.2 Scheme Objectives __________________________________________________________________ 5 1.3 Purpose of the Model ________________________________________________________________ 6 2. Model Description and Specification 7 2.1 Description of the Demand Modelling System _____________________________________________ 7 2.2 Explanation of how the Model Relates to other Components of the Demand Model ________________ 7 2.3 Description of Land Use Interaction Models Used __________________________________________ 7 2.4 Description and Justification of type of Highway Model Used __________________________________ 8 2.5 Description and Justification of type of Public Transport Model Used ____________________________ 8 2.6 Description of how Parking, Park-and-Ride and Slow Modes are modelled _______________________ 8 2.7 Description, Plan and Justification of Geographical Model Coverage ____________________________ 8 2.8 Software Package and Version Used ____________________________________________________ 9 3. Summary of Data Collection 10 3.1 Outline Description of Data Sources and Units ____________________________________________ 10 3.1.1 Surveys and National Databases ______________________________________________________ 10 3.1.2 Existing Models ____________________________________________________________________ 10 3.2 Identification of Calibration Data _______________________________________________________ 11 3.2.1 Count Data _______________________________________________________________________ 11 3.2.2 Screenlines _______________________________________________________________________ 15 3.3 Identification of Validation Data ________________________________________________________ 16 3.3.1 Count Data _______________________________________________________________________ 16 3.3.2 Journey Times ____________________________________________________________________ 18 3.4 Comparison of Comparable Data from Different Sources ____________________________________ 21 4. Highway Model Development 22 4.1 Network __________________________________________________________________________ 22 4.1.1 Description of Network Structure ______________________________________________________ 22 4.1.2 Description of Coding Process ________________________________________________________ 24 4.1.3 Evidence for Assessment of Speed Limits/Road Types _____________________________________ 24 4.1.4 Description of Calculation and Assumptions ______________________________________________ 26 4.1.5 Description of any Network Inventory Undertaken _________________________________________ 27 4.1.6 Description of any Junction Operation Data ______________________________________________ 27 4.1.7 Description of any Modelling Assumptions _______________________________________________ 27 4.1.8 Description of any Public Transport Modelling ____________________________________________ 28 4.1.9 Description of Treatment of Freight Transport ____________________________________________ 28 4.1.10 Description of network assumptions relating to representation of Tolls, High Occupancy Vehicles Lanes, Active Traffic Management and Variable Speed Limits ________________________________ 28 4.2 Matrices _________________________________________________________________________ 29 4.2.1 Description of Zone Structure _________________________________________________________ 29 January 2018 HA551502-WSP-GEN-0000-RE-TR-0013-P04 A30 Chiverton to Carland Cross Local Model Validation Report 4.2.2 Specification and justification of any demand segmentation within the traffic model _______________ 33 4.2.3 Description of data sources including previous study matrices, new RSI data, synthetic matrices _____ 33 4.2.4 Description of matrix building process including process of adjusting for unobserved directions and unobserved periods, reference to dealing with double counting and substitution of old data with new/more reliable data ______________________________________________________________ 34 4.2.5 Description of any matrix infilling process including the use of synthetic trip matrices / gravity models _ 40 4.2.6 Description of the Matrix Estimation Process _____________________________________________ 40 4.2.7 Discussion of where the model is less robust with statement on how this impacts on the model's performance ______________________________________________________________________ 41 4.3 Assignment Process ________________________________________________________________ 42 4.3.1 Description of Approach Used ________________________________________________________ 42 4.3.2 Model Time Slices __________________________________________________________________ 43 4.3.3 Generalised Cost Calculation _________________________________________________________ 43 4.3.4 Assignment convergence criteria ______________________________________________________ 43 4.3.5 Assignment parameters used by the software ____________________________________________ 44 5. Highway Model Calibration 45 5.1 Network __________________________________________________________________________ 45 5.1.1 Network Structure __________________________________________________________________ 45 5.1.2 Link Length Checks_________________________________________________________________ 45 5.1.3 One-way Links ____________________________________________________________________ 46 5.1.4 HGV Restrictions __________________________________________________________________ 46 5.1.5 Speed Flow Curves Check ___________________________________________________________ 46 5.1.6 Junction Saturation Flows ____________________________________________________________ 47 5.2 Assignment Process ________________________________________________________________ 47 5.3 Matrices _________________________________________________________________________ 47 5.3.1 Matrix Zonal Demand Changes _______________________________________________________ 47 5.3.2 Trip Length Distribution ______________________________________________________________ 48 5.3.3 Sector Matrices ____________________________________________________________________ 50 5.4 Overall Model Calibration ____________________________________________________________ 53 5.4.1 Calibration Criteria _________________________________________________________________ 53 5.4.2 Link Flows and Screenlines __________________________________________________________ 54 5.4.3 Junction Turning Flows ______________________________________________________________ 54 6. Highway Model Validation 56 6.1 Network __________________________________________________________________________ 56 6.1.1 Analysis of Paths __________________________________________________________________ 56 6.1.2 Application of Speed Flow Curves _____________________________________________________ 57 6.1.3 Junction coding ____________________________________________________________________ 57 6.1.4 Other network _____________________________________________________________________ 58 6.1.5 Network routing checks ______________________________________________________________ 58 6.2 Assignment _______________________________________________________________________ 58 6.2.1 Independence of Validation Data ______________________________________________________ 58 6.2.2 Validation Criteria __________________________________________________________________ 58 6.2.3 Journey Time Validation _____________________________________________________________ 59 6.2.4 Link Flow and Screenline Validation ____________________________________________________ 59 6.2.5 Convergence ______________________________________________________________________ 62 7. Variable Demand Model 64 January