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The Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources Potential of Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia

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The Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources Potential of Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia The Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources Potential of Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor-Ingenieur (Dr.-Ing.) Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Umweltwissenschaften Universität der Bundeswehr München vorgelegt von Abdella Kemal Mohammed (M.Sc.) Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wolfgang F. Günthert, Universität der Bundeswehr München Erstprüfer: Prof. Dr.-Ing Markus Disse, Technische Universität München Zweitprüfer: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Robert Jüpner, Technische Universität Kaiserslautern Einreichung der Dissertation bei der Universität der Bundeswehr München: 09.10.2013 Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 13.12.2013 München, Dezember 2013 i Abstract Nowadays, climate change impact imposes serious challenges on water resources potential that can be used for useful developmental projects. As a result, this study investigates the effect of climate change on water resources potential of Omo Gibe basin, Ethiopia. The study area is located south western part of the country lies between 4000‘N & 9022‘N latitude and 34044‘E & 38024‘E longitude. One of the main scientific puzzles in climate change study is getting reliable and bias free climate model outputs that can be used as an input to hydrological models. Therefore, this research addresses two different methods, cumulative distribution mapping and statistical downscaling method to downscale course resolution regional and global climate model outputs to point scale resolution. The other basic result of climate change studies is daily discharge at the point of interest. Prediction of this discharge for un-gauged basin is still a big challenge especially in developing country like Ethiopia, because most of the catchments are not well organized to measure this flows. As a result this research proposes a methodology to produce daily flows data from un-gauged watersheds corresponding to reference time period. Understanding how the influence and changes imposed by climate change on available water resource potential corresponding to future time period enhances on the capacity and ability of planners, decision makers and designers to manage, design and plan this scarce resources under climate change conditions for different projects. With regard to this, the thesis proposes modeling of daily flow at Gibe III dam site under climate change scenarios for future water use. The proposed downscaling methodologies were employed to downscale regional and global climate model outputs in the Omo Gibe basin. Two REMO scenarios for two conditions each A1B_911 and A1B_912 wet and optimum B1_921 and B1_923 wet and dry conditions were considered. Here wet, optimum and dry conditions used for this particular study based on simulated rainfall values of the scenarios before downscaling. The efficiency of the methodologies was validated in a number of ways by comparing with observed results, and they performed very well in producing current climate conditions that have similar statistical parameters with observed values. As a result five climate scenarios were projected corresponding to future time period 2020-2050. Semi distributed physically based hydrological model SWIM was utilized to estimate daily flows from un-gauged part of the basin for reference time period. Initially, this model was calibrated and validated at Abelti flow measuring station with satisfactory results. The performance of the model has been evaluated by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and total water difference between observed and simulated flow. Reasonable assumptions have been made between Abelti and un-gauged part of the basin to utilize (transfer) all model calibrated parameters obtained from Abelti to un-gauged basin. Consequently, by considering full climatological and hydrological processes of un-gauged basin and Abelti‘s calibrated parameter, 29 years (1970-1998) daily flows data generated from this basin. Observed daily flow on Gibe River at Abelti, Wabe River at Wolkite and Gojeb River at OM19 flow stations were routed to Gibe III dam site. The result of routed flow summed up with generated un-gauged flow to get total inflow at Gibe III dam site for current time. This flow was used to calibrate SWIM at Gibe III dam site to study effects of climate change on water resources potential of the basin. SWIM has been utilized at Gibe III outlet to model hydrological response of Gibe III catchment under climate change conditions. The performance of this model at this station has been evaluated through sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation. During validation the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency has been found greater than 90% and the overall water difference was less than 2% which is the most important requirement for climate change. ii Detail investigation of downscaled results from climate model scenarios were analyzed individually and spatially based on monthly seasonal and annual projected climate outputs. Areal analysis of downscaled results pointed out that the downscaling models projected increased maximum and minimum temperature throughout the basin from all scenarios as compared to current climate condition. Accordingly, areal average maximum temperature is expected to increase in the range of 0.860C to 1.370C and minimum temperature is expected to rise in the range of 0.70C to 1.90C in the upper part of the basin above Gibe III dam site. On the other hand rainfall behavior from projected scenarios show very mixed patterns of change in the upper part of the basin. The southern part of the basin characterized increased rainfall pattern from three climate stations Sawula Jinka and Morka by GCM scenario in average of 30%. However, the three RCM scenarios (REMO) do not show significant change. The average areal rainfall in the upper part of the basin projected to increase as 6.5%, 4.5% 2.4% and 1.9% by A1B_911, GCM, A1B_912 and B1_921 scenarios respectively, where as one scenario (B1_923) projected decreased rainfall by -1.4%. The calibrated model parameters at Gibe III dam site and results from climate change scenarios downscaled from regional and global climate model for scenario period were used to model inflow at Gibe III dam site corresponding to future time frame (2020-2050). As a result, hypothetical daily flow at the aforementioned site considering climate change effects projected from five scenarios, and flow duration curves of these flows were developed. These streamflow data were applied to analyze monthly, seasonal and annual stream flow variability in relation to climate change. The projected streamflow analysis revealed that spring flows from all scenarios projected increased value due to increases precipitation at this season, to the contrary Autumn and peak flow projected decreased results from all scenarios. Evaporation losses due to Gilgel Gibe I and Gibe III reservoirs were projected by using projected climate outputs of (2020-2050) with modified Penman and Priestly Taylor equations. Results of this loss estimated a gross mean annual loss of 12.8m3/s flow in the form of evaporation from the two reservoirs. Finally this loss was deducted from projected flows to estimate net inflows to Gibe III outlet. Eventually, one of the scenarios A1B_911 projected 6.7% increased net mean annual flow, whereas B1_ 923 projected moderately decreased flow as -17.2% in the net mean annual flow. The developed downscaling technique, cumulative distribution mapping can be used in other basins to downscale regional or global climate model outputs especially maximum and minimum temperatures to get bias free climate scenarios. Moreover, the results of this study can be used as a quick access to water resources potential of the basin in consideration of climate change that can be used by decision makers and planers for developmental projects in the basin. iii Zusammenfassung Der Einfluss des Klimawandels führt heutzutage zu ernstzunehmenden Herausforderungen hinsichtlich der Wasserressourcenverfügbarkeit, die für Entwicklungsprojekte genutzt werden kann. Diese Studie untersucht den Einfluss des Klimawandels auf das Wassernutzungspotential im Omo Gibe Becken, Äthiopien. Das Untersuchungsgebiet liegt im Südwesten des Landes (4°00‗-9°22‗ nördl. Breite sowie 34°44‗-38°24‗ östl. Länge). Eines der Hauptziele in Klimawandelstudien ist es, verlässliche Ergebnisse aus Klimamodellen zu generieren, die ihrerseits als Eingangsdaten in hydrologischen Modellen verwendet werden können. Daher widmet sich diese Studie zweier Methoden, um die grob aufgelösten regionalen und globalen Klimamodelle auf die Punktskale herab zu skalieren bzw. zu verfeinern. Dies sind das „cumulative distribution mapping― sowie das „statistical downscaling―. Ein weiteres wesentliches Ergebnis von Klimawandelstudien ist der tägliche Zufluss an einem Untersuchungspunkt für einen bestimmten Bezugszeitraum. Die Vorhersage von Abflüssen in pegellosen Einzugsgebieten ist immer noch eine große Herausforderung, besonders für Entwicklungsländer wie Äthiopien, wo in vielen Einzugsgebieten keine Messstationen vorhanden sind. Daher wird in dieser Studie eine Methode entwickelt, um tägliche Abflussdaten aus pegellosen Einzugsgebieten für einen Bezugszeitraum zu generieren. Das Verständnis über Einflüsse und Veränderungen des Klimawandels auf das zukünftige Potential von Wasserressourcen erweitert die Möglichkeiten von Planern und Entscheidungsträgern, die knappe Ressource Wasser bestmöglich zu bewirtschaften. Daher behandelt diese Arbeit die Modellierung des täglichen Zuflusses für zukünftige Wassernutzung am Gibe III Damm unter Berücksichtigung
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