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College for All? Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? Research Synthesis

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College for All? Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? Research Synthesis DOCUMENT RESUME ED 431 986 CG 029 345 AUTHOR Boesel, David; Fredland, Eric TITLE College for All? Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? Research Synthesis. INSTITUTION Wisconsin Univ., Madison. Medical Center. SPONS AGENCY National Library of Education (ED/OERI), Washington, DC. REPORT NO NLE-1999-2024 PUB DATE 1999-01-00 NOTE 96p. PUB TYPE Information Analyses (070) Numerical/Quantitative Data (110) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC04 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Academic Ability; *Bachelors Degrees; *College Graduates; Community Colleges; Debt (Financial); Dropouts; Higher Education; *Labor Market; *Research; Salaries; School Holding Power; Tables (Data); Vocational Education ABSTRACT Over the years, larger and larger portions of high school graduates have enrolled in 4-year colleges. Although many people view college as essential to success in the labor market, the movement toward 4-year colleges also has its critics. These critics contend that the public has come to believe that almost all high school graduates should go to college. This "college movement" is sweeping many marginally qualified or unqualified students into college, and hence the average ability of college students has declined. As a result of these declining ability levels, college noncompletion and dropout rates have increased. Many noncompleters do poorly in the labor market and would have been better advised to pursue other education and training options. These noncompleters are also burdened by unnecessary debts from college loans. Even college graduates are not doing very well in the labor market. This research synthesis examines the evidence for these arguments. Based on published literature identified through traditional bibliographic sources, ERIC, a variety of internet sources, research reports, and Ph.D. dissertations, the synthesis is designed to be empirical, even-handed, and as comprehensive as possible. Topics covered include: the growth of college expectations; changes in ability levels; changes in college completion rates; outcomes for noncompleters; and outcomes for college graduates. Appendixes contain tables; figures; Adjusting Post-1989 ACT Scores; and Research on Human Capital and Screening Theories. (Contains 196 references.)(Author/MKA) ******************************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * * from the original document. * ******************************************************************************** aLkE QeMersTho Much EnTcohass on GeMng a 41-Yeav Cane Degree? National Library of Education Qc-1 Office of Educational Research and Improvement U.S. Department of Education 11111111 LtD U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Office of Educational Research and Improvement Nt. NAT ONAL EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION LIBRARY OF CENTER (ERIC) CY) 0 This document has been reproduced as EDUCATION received from the person or organization ESTCOPYAVA1BLE CNI originating it. 0 Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction Quality. 0 Points of view or opinions stated in this docu- ment do not necessarily represent official, OERI position or policy. 2 318V1IVAVAdO Is There TooMuch Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year CollegeDegree? David Boesel National Library of Education Eric Fredland U.S. Naval Academy National Library of Education Office of Educational Research and Improvement U.S. Department of Education NAT ONAL LIBRARY OF EDUCATION 3 BESTCOPYAVAILABLE National Library of Education Office of Educational Research and Improvement U.S. Department of Education U.S. Department of Education Richard W. Riley Secretary Office of Educational Research and Improvement C. Kent McGuire Assistant Secretary National Library of Education Blane K. Dessy Director Media and Information Services Cynthia Hearn Dorfman Director January 1999 This study is intended to promote the exchange of ideas among researchers and policy makers. The views expressed in it are part of ongoing research and analyses and do not necessarily refLect the position of the U.S. Department of Education. National Library of EducationCataloging Data Boesel, David. College for all? Is there too much emphasis on getting a 4-year college degree?/David Boesel. p.cm. ISBN 1. Postsecondary educationUnited States. 2. Degrees, AcademicUnited States. I. Title. LA226 .B64 1999 4 Research Synthesis: College for All? Preface Often it is hard to tell what conclusions can be drawn from education research studies, because the studies on a given subject have not been examined systematically as a body of research. Analyses conducted at different times with different populations and different research methods often yield apparently inconsistent conclusions about the same subject. Given ambiguous research findings, advocates of one position or another may promote those that support their views, while ignoring or minimizing contrary findings. In such circumstances, researchers, policy makers,and practitioners, such as teachers and administrators, may lack the comprehensive, balanced, objective information they need. While many good syntheses of education research have been produced over the years, many topics have not yet been covered. In response to this need, the National Library of Education (NLE) has undertaken a series of research syntheses on issues of public concern in education. Based on published literature identified through traditional bibliographic sources, ERIC, a variety of Internet sources, research reports, and Ph.D. disser- tations, the syntheses are designed to be empirical, even-handed, and as comprehensive as possible. This study of college outcomes is the second synthesis in the series. The result of a great deal of careful research, it should be especially useful to high school counselors and high school students contemplating options in postsecondary education. Blane K. Dessy Director National Library of Education Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? 5 Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank David Autor, David Bergeron, John Bishop, Hunter Boylan, Dennis Caro ll, Norton Grubb, Richard Murnane, Brian Surette, and John Tyler for their thoughtful review and comments on the study. David Autor and Peter Gottschalk made available data files used inthe preparation of this report. Jim Maxey provided historical materials from the American College Testing Program (ACT), and Vance Grant provided historical Census data. Brian Surette explained the analytic procedures used in his study of postsecondary outcomes. Chris Sheedy coordinated the editorial process for the manuscript. Judy Craig managed the National Library of Education's role in the publication process, and Eileen Schramm designed and formatted the report. 6 Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? Executive Summary Over the years, larger and larger proportions of high school graduates have enrolled in 4-year colleges. While many people view college as essential to success in the labor market, the movement toward 4-year colleges also has its critics. These critics contend that 0 the public has come to believe that almost all, high school graduates should go to college; O this "college movement" is sweeping many marginally qualified or unqualified students into college, and hence the average ability of college students has declined; O as a result of these declining ability levels, college noncompletion and dropout rates have increased; O many noncompleters do poorly in the labor market and would have been better advised to pursue other education and training options; 0 these noncompleters are also burdened by unnecessary debts from college loans; and O even college graduates are not doing very well in the labor market. This research synthesis examines the evidence for these arguments. Is there a college-for-all movement sweeping the country, as the critics contend? There is if, by college, we mean either a 2-year or a 4-year college. Under this definition, almost all high schoolseniors around 95 percentexpect to go to college. The proportion expecting to earn a bachelor's degree is smaller, but still substantial (69 percent). Somewhat fewer seniors (54 percent) say that they plan to enroll in the following October, and the proportion actually enrolling in 4-year colleges is smaller still (39 percent). One factor in the widespread college expectations among high school students may be the increased tendency of high school guidance counselors to encourage students of limited ability to attend "college." Are college students less able than they were several decades ago, as some critics believe? Evidence from standardized achievement test scores suggests that they are about as able now as they were in the past. The test scores of college students did decline markedly from 1967 to 1980. However, they have since risen to at least their previous levels. If there is an increase in the number of lower-ability high school graduates going to "college" today, much of it may be getting absorbed by community colleges. Critics of the college movement also believe that college completion rates are lower than in the past. The evidence suggests that there has been a modest decrease in the proportions of entering freshmen Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? who complete college within specified periods of time, such as 4, 5, or 6 years. However, at Least part of this decrease is explained by the fact that students are typically taking longer to finish college than before. While noncompletion
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