POSCO ICT (Buy/TP: W11,000) KOSPI 2,020.74 4.13 0.20 Poised for Strong Growth KOSPI 200 267.25 0.71 0.27 KOSDAQ 544.36 0.40 0.07
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March 6, 2013 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) POSCO ICT (Buy/TP: W11,000) KOSPI 2,020.74 4.13 0.20 Poised for strong growth KOSPI 200 267.25 0.71 0.27 KOSDAQ 544.36 0.40 0.07 Economy & Strategy Update Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Fixed Income Monthly (Factor) Volume Value KOSPI 391,415 4,044 Yields set to change course after MPC meeting KOSPI 200 85,866 3,146 KOSDAQ 480,757 2,338 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,170,147 KOSDAQ 120,814 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,141 1,117 23 Institutional 880 816 64 Retail 2,009 2,088 -78 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 97 90 7 Institutional 110 113 -3 Retail 2,126 2,121 4 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 764 666 99 KOSDAQ 17 16 2 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 417 382 88 KOSDAQ 461 462 76 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX LEVERAGE 13,135 -20 415 Hynix 28,000 1,000 308 Samsung Electronics 1,560,000 10,000 293 KODEX INVERSE 7,330 5 165 KODEX 200 26,890 -15 149 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value AHNLAB 80,000 -700 103 Openbase 3,200 225 58 Tamul Multimedia 8,060 -50 44 Sejung Namo Tour 7,200 430 41 OSSTEM IMPLANT 36,650 1,900 38 Note: As of March 6, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. March 6, 2013 Company Report POSCO ICT (022100 KQ) IT Services Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Poised for strong growth Dae-ro Jeong +822-768-4160 Robust growth ahead on solid orders from affiliates [email protected] We believe POSCO ICT is poised for strong growth, in large part due to POSCO’s overseas expansion and investments. POSCO is currently making significant investments in Indonesia, Brazil and India as part of its plan to ramp up its crude steel output to 65mn tonnes by 2020. We thus see sharp earnings growth ahead for POSCO ICT’s steel sector business, particularly in engineering, but also in IT systems (establishment, operation and maintenance). We also look for further growth in the non-steel segment on the back of joint projects with POSCO E&C, and expect POSCO ICT to tap into sectors besides plants and construction (such as the energy and water-treatment sectors). Buy (Maintain) Target Price (12M, W) 11,000 Green business to gain traction; Subsidiary earnings to pick up Share Price (03/05/13, W) 7,980 Concerns over power shortages and increasing electricity prices have driven interest in Expected Return (%) 37.8 energy efficiency in recent years. POSCO ICT provides a full range of energy efficiency EPS Growth (13F, %) 17.5 services, from consulting, to the development and operation of energy facilities and Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 2.2 solutions using its smart-grid technology. We expect the green business (energy P/E(13F, x) 23.2 efficiency) will become the company’s next growth engine. POSCO ICT plans to provide Market P/E(13F, x) 11.4 its smart-grid services to four of its affiliates' energy-intensive plants (including POSCO) KOSPI 543.96 in 2013 and an additional 66 plants by 2018, and we expect to see orders from non- Market Cap (Wbn) 1,094 affiliated domestic firms as well. Shares Outstanding (mn) 137 Additionally, we forecast improved earnings at the firm’s consolidated subsidiaries, Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 665 POSCO LED and PONUTech. POSCO LED swung to a profit in September 2012 on the Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 5 back of sustained revenue growth. This year, we expect to see more meaningful Dividend Yield (13F, %) 0.0 earnings growth, driven by aggressive overseas forays and affiliate-related revenues. Free Float (%) 26.3 52-Week Low 6,220 We also project PONUTech will turn to an operating profit in 2013, and enter a period of 52-Week High 9,380 full-fledged growth in 2014, as the firm expands its scope of business and sees Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.90 increased orders. Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %,SD) 2.1 Maintain Buy and TP of W11,000 Foreign Ownership (%) 1.0 Major Shareholder(s) We maintain our Buy call on POSCO ICT with a target price of W11,000. We derived our POSCO et al. (73.51%) target price by applying a P/E of 33x (average multiple in 2011-12) to our 2013F EPS. We believe our high target multiple is justifiable as we believe POSCO ICT has the potential to grow into a global engineering firm. We believe it can expand its footprint Price Performance beyond that of an IT-services provider for POSCO and into engineering design, (%) 1M 6M 12M construction and operation. We project full-fledged top-line growth from 2013 (and Absolute 13.5 18.9 -8.7 increased orders) with smart grids serving as the firm’s next growth engine. We Relative 9.5 11.3 -8.7 recommend accumulating the stock on a high P/E multiple and then taking profit after the multiple contracts as revenues and profits sharply increase (which would be followed by slower growth). § Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 120 Share price KOSDAQ (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 110 12/10 830 25 3.0 18 131 47 -107 11.6 73.3 5.4 31.9 100 12/11 983 38 3.9 31 224 66 -89 12.6 39.1 5.4 21.2 90 12/12P 1,018 46 4.5 40 293 67 31 15.6 27.5 4.2 19.5 80 12/13F 1,183 62 5.3 47 344 81 51 15.9 23.2 3.6 16.0 70 12/14F 1,329 79 5.9 62 450 96 41 16.1 17.7 3.0 14.0 2/12 6/12 10/12 2/13 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. March 6, 2013 Fixed Income Monthly (Factor) Yields set to change course after MPC meeting Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Yeo-sam Yoon Senior Fixed Income Strategist Global economy should continue to recover after a pause +822-768-4022 [email protected] February data releases for the US, China, and Europe have been largely mixed, suggesting it is too early to conclude that hard times for major economies are over. This hiccup after months of steady recovery may linger through March, but overall we remain optimistic that these economies will resume recovering in 2Q13. Of course, the partisan tit-for-tat over the sequester in the US and the post-election political instability in Italy should continue to weigh on the global economy. But these political risks are likely to generate more smoke than fire. In February, a continued fall in yields began to signal the market was overbought, but domestic institutions continued to buy, due to: 1) ample liquidity, 2) lingering expectations of a rate cut, and 3) strong foreign buying prompted by the prospect of long-term won appreciation. But we believe yields will begin to rise when the MPC decides to leave the base rate unchanged for March. Still, the upside of yields should be limited given the abundant liquidity of domestic institutions. Factor Analysis: 1. Fundamentals: Global recovery should continue after a hiccup 2. Monetary policy: Easing stance may be losing traction 3. Supply and demand: Ample liquidity keeps yields low 4. Overseas yields: Global yields should rise further 5. Price variables: Risk-on mode should be back in March 6. Investment strategy: March MPC should confirm BoKÊs neutral stance Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. Key Universe Valuations March 6, 2013 ※All data as of close March 5, 2013, unless otherwise noted. 12F Earnings growth Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company Div Yield OP EPS (Wbn) (W) (%) 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 005930 Samsung Electronics 228,314 1,550,000 0.5 81.8 22.4 75.0 20.4 11.1 9.4 2.1 1.8 21.6 21.2 005380 Hyundai Motor 48,681 221,000 0.9 7.4 -7.8 11.8 -6.4 7.3 7.9 1.4 1.2 20.8 16.3 012330 Hyundai Mobis 30,274 311,000 0.7 8.6 9.6 17.7 1.1 7.9 8.4 1.8 1.6 23.2 19.4 005490 POSCO 29,687 340,500 2.7 -36.2 41.3 -21.6 25.9 12.2 9.4 0.7 0.7 6.5 7.8 000270 Kia Motors 22,376 55,200 1.2 2.3 -16.2 11.5 -11.0 5.9 6.5 1.5 1.2 25.5 18.6 032830 Samsung Life 20,800 104,000 2.0 33.2 0.0 23.0 4.2 17.8 17.1 1.1 1.0 6.2 6.0 055550 Shinhan Financial Group 20,153 42,500 2.0 -18.2 -1.5 -14.1 2.3 8.1 8.7 0.7 0.7 9.2 8.7 051910 LG Chem 18,954 286,000 1.2 -30.8 25.2 -29.0 19.7 16.1 11.6 2.3 1.8 15.0 15.9 000660 SK Hynix 18,742 27,000 - - - - - 17.7 2.0 1.9 - 10.2 009540 Hyundai Heavy Industries 15,960 210,000 -56.4 20.9 -63.3 55.1 19.6 11.0 1.2 0.9 5.7 8.4 096770 SK Innovation 15,904 172,000 1.7 -38.5 52.8 -62.8 58.3 13.8 8.6 1.1 1.0 7.9 11.5 105560 KB Financial Group 15,010 38,850 1.6 -19.5 3.6 -11.8 3.5 7.2 7.1 0.6 0.6 8.5 8.2 035420 NHN 13,211 274,500 0.3 13.2 26.0 22.1 16.8 19.9 20.6 3.9 3.9 29.8 27.7 066570 LG Electronics 12,732 77,800 0.7 301.4 17.0 - 1075.9 199.3 17.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 6.1 023530 Lotte Shopping 12,077 383,500 0.4 -15.3 11.7 8.4 12.6 10.8 9.8 1.1 1.0 7.0 7.4 003550 LG Corp.