Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA)

Picture of 2018 Lewisham’s Population Lewisham is the 13th largest borough in London by population size and the 5th largest in Inner London Southwark

Source: MYE 2016, Office for National Statistics Population by Gender and Five Year Age Band

90+ 85 to 89 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4

20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Females Males Source: Authority, 2017

Population by Age and Sex - Lewisham has a young population bias, the proportion aged 0-4 population is notably higher than the national average The population is set to continue to grow, by the time of the 2021 Census it is expected to will reach 323,000 and climb to 357,000 by the time of the 2031 Census.

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400 381 357 350 323 306 300

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0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Population Growth - this growth is through a combination of the number of births exceeding the number of deaths and international migration, people moving to the borough from overseas Projected changes in Lewisham's population by ward and age band for neighbourhood 1

30000

25000

20000

15000 65+ 25-64 15-24 10000 0-14

5000

0 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 Evelyn Telegraph Hill

Source: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/interim-2015-based-population-projections

Population growth - Neighbourhood 1 The growth will continue to pattern of a younger population bias at the north of the borough Population growth - Neighbourhood 2 Growth will not be evenly distributed across the borough. Ward is predicted to see notable increases due to planned developments in the area. Projected changes in Lewisham's population by ward and age band for neighbourhood 3

30000

25000

20000

15000 65+ 25-64 10000 15-24 0-14 5000

0 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 South Grove Park Whitefoot Rushey Green

Source: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/interim-2015-based-population-projections

Population Growth - Neighbourhood 3 Growth at the south of the borough will be at a slower pace Projected changes in Lewisham's population by age ward and band for neighbourhood 4

30000

25000

20000

15000 65+ 25-64 10000 15-24 0-14 5000

0 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 2017 2020 2025 Bellingham Forest Hill Sydenham

Source: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/interim-2015-based-population-projections

Population Growth - Neighbourhood 4 • The ethnic profile of Lewisham residents is forecast to change up to 2050 • By 2028 it is forecast that the White and BME population will be 50/50 • Subsequently the BME population is predicted to exceed the White population Lewisham population projections 2018-2050 100%

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BME White

Source: 2015 RoundEthnicity Ethnic Group Population Projections, GLA Ethnicity - understanding the current and future ethnic composition of the borough is important as some health conditions impact disproportionately on certain ethnic groups, e.g. diabetes. There is also disparity by ethnicity in use of and access to some services However for young people the ethnic proportions are and will continue to be quite different. The percentage of 0-19s of BME heritage has remained at or marginally above 65% since 2011. By 2031 the proportion of BME residents aged 0-19 is projected to reach 67%.

Ethnic Population Trends and Projections of Children and Young People 0-19 as a Proportion of the Population 100%

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0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Source: 2015 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections, GLA BME White

Ethnicity of Young People - between 2011 and 2031the size of the population of BME children & young people 0-19 will grow at more than three times the rate of their White counterparts Home to residents of Fastest Growing Non- more than 75 British Nationalities nationalities Italian Romanian Spanish Irish Portuguese

Nearly half of the 23,000 EU nationals resident in Lewisham are from Ireland Other White residents Italy are growing at faster Poland rate than White British France or White Irish

Diversity - The Lewisham population is predicted to continue to diversify as it grows over the coming decades The chart below shows nationalities on Lewisham’s Electoral Roll that are at or above triple digits. Aside from those who identify as British, the top ten most numerous nationalities are Irish, Nigerian, Italian, Polish, Jamaican, French, Spanish, Romanian, Portuguese and German.

4000 8 of the top ten countries are in the EU. Nigeria and Jamaica are the 3500 only non-EU nationalities in the top ten. 3000

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Source: Lewisham Electoral Roll 2017

Nationality Between 2015 and 2017 the fastest growing nationality on Lewisham’s Electoral Roll (by volume) was Italian (up 750 over the period), followed by Romanian (up 640), Irish (up 458) and Portuguese (up 378). Over the same period, Italian replaced Jamaican as the third most numerous non-British nationality, Polish is the fourth most numerous and Jamaican is now the fifth most numerous. Romanian has replaced Portuguese as the eighth most numerous non- British nationality and Portuguese has replaced German as the ninth most numerous non-British nationality in the borough.

4000 In volume terms (+750) Italian is the fastest growing nationality in 3500 the borough 3000

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: Lewisham Electoral Roll 2017 and 2015 Source 2017 2015

Nationality • Residents whose first language is not English are concentrated in the north of the borough as well as Lewisham Central ward. • The School Language Census taken in Summer 2017, showed over 160 languages are spoken by Lewisham pupils

Language The maps breaks down urban deprivation into smaller geographies. It shows that whilst Lewisham was less deprived in 2015 compared to 2010, concentrations of deprivation in the north and south of the borough remain comparatively high.

Source: Indices for Multiple Deprivation, 2015 Number of income deprived children by Lewisham ward Crofton Park 455 Blackheath 530 Lee Green 540 625 More income deprived Forest Hill 710 children live in Evelyn than Catford South 710 Crofton Park, Blackheath and Brockley 755 Lee Green combined. This Grove Park 805 disparity will impact on Telegraph Hill 940 health outcomes Perry Vale 950 Sydenham 1005 New Cross 1075 Rushey Green 1150 Lewisham Central 1175 Whitefoot 1300 Downham 1390 Bellingham 1390 Evelyn 1645

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Source: Indices for Multiple Deprivation, 2015

Deprivation effecting children by ward 14.5% of residents are This is slightly below the living with a long term average of condition which limits 17.6%, however this is their daily activities* likely to be due to the younger population bias

For those of working age this reduces to 11.5%

* Proxy question for disability 2011 Census

Disability People with a learning disability have shorter life expectancy

Disproportionately affected by certain health conditions including coronary heart disease, respiratory disease and epilepsy

QOF Equates to In Lewisham Prevalence is 1,296 patients 0.4%

Learning Disabilities 2% of those Data on sexual identity is not readily aged 16+ available at local identified authority level as LGBT

ONS now ask a question Doubles regarding sexual identity to 4% of in their Annual those Population Survey, which is widely used as the aged most reliable source 16-24

Males If the national figure 2.3% was applied to Females Lewisham, equates to 6,000 residents 1.6%

Sexual Identity • People providing high levels of care are twice as likely to have poor health compared with those without caring responsibilities (Carers UK) • 8.1% of Lewisham residents provide at least some unpaid care each week (around 22,500)

Day to Day Activities are Limited to Some Extent (2011 Census) Carers Non Carers 23.7% 13.2% • Only 36.6% of adult carers have as much social contact as they would like

Carers • Greater diversity will impact on services • Need to be aware of languages to keep service accessible • Growing population means extra demand, important understand where the bulk of this growth will be to plan effectively • To make services increasingly equitable it is crucial to be aware of the inequalities that currently exist

What does this mean/Summary The proportion of babies born at a low birth rate has decreased notably since 2012 and is now comparable to the England average

In 2015 (most recent data available) 7.1% of babies were born at a low birth weight (under 2500g)

This decreases to 3.1% for babies born at term (at least 37 weeks gestation)

Low Birth Weight of Babies Over 68,000 people aged 0-17

More than a quarter of children under 20 live in poverty

School Readiness: Almost 8 in 10 children are achieving a good level of development at the end of reception, significantly better than the London and England averages

Pupil absence is in line with London and England

6.2% of 16-17 year olds are Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

The rate of first time entrants to the Youth Justice System has steadily been declining, however remains significantly worse than the London and England average

Children and Young People 22% of children in This rises to 39% in Reception are Year 6 overweight or obese

Lewisham has high levels of childhood and adult obesity

Physical activity is For adults the figure similar to the is 58% national average

Excess Weight Obese adults are seven times more likely to become type 2 diabetic than adults of a healthy weight

Obesity also doubles the Obesity is linked to many risk of dying serious health risks in both prematurely children and adults

Impact of Obesity • Lewisham continues to have high rates of breastfeeding, out-performing both London & England • Over 8 in 10 mothers initiate breastfeeding • 3 out of 4 mothers are breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks • The borough has achieved UNICEF Baby Friendly accreditation and continues work towards increasing rates

Breastfeeding Despite Key Vaccinations Uptake Immunisation improvements, remains one uptake for 2016/17 of the most certain cost effective childhood Hib/Men C at 2 69.7% healthcare immunisations falls below MMR2 at 5 84.6% interventions herd immunity

Children in Notable Reception, increase Y1 & Y2 in uptake of MMR now vaccine receive the flu vaccine

65+ Flu HPV uptake is vaccine significantly uptake is lower than also low England

Priority 3 - Improving Immunisation Uptake