Public Disclosure Authorized DEMAND FOR DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION IN PAKISTAN Main Report June 2016 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared by Elan Partners (Pvt.) Ltd, under contract to The World Bank. It is one of several Strategy to Scale- [P146251], which was implemented over the period January 2015 to June 2016. The activity was funded and supported by the Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, and was led by Oliver Knight (Senior Energy Specialist) and Anjum Ahmad (Senior Energy Specialist). This report provides an assessment of the potential for distributed renewable energy generation, particularly through solar for large public buildings, major hospitals, major universities, water supply and sewerage pumps, agricultural pumps and agro processing units in selected areas of Pakistan. The work involved data collection, detailed site visits in the selected study areas, and desk-based analysis. The World Bank wishes to thank those organizations that generously provided their time, data and assistance to the consultant team, including representatives from K-Electric, Islamabad Electricity Supply Company (IESCO), and Lahore Electricity Supply Company (LESCO). This report is accompanied by a detailed set of annexes, which can be found here. Copyright © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1-202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Furthermore, the ASTAE Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above, or to [email protected]. Demand for Distributed Renewable Energy Generation in Pakistan Volume 1 of 3 Main Report Ref.: FRT16-V05-WBDG June 2016 [Incorporates minor revisions to version published May 2016] Prepared for: The World Bank Group Élan Partners (Pvt.) Ltd Head Office: 4th Floor, Rizwan Plaza, 9 West, Blue Area, Sector F-6, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel.: +92 (51) 227 2582-85 Fax: +92 (51) 227 2580 Regional Office: 2nd Floor, Azam Tower, Arbab Road Stop, University Road, Peshawar Tel.: +92 (91) 5842009 Email: [email protected] , Web: www.elan.com.pk Report disclaimer: Élan Partners has prepared this document in accordance with the instructions of The World Bank Group for its sole and specific use. Any other persons, companies, or institutions who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk. Demand For Distributed Renewable Energy Generation In Pakistan ACRONYMS AND KEY TERMS ACSR Aluminum Conductor, Steel Reinforced AC Alternating Current AEB Islamabad Area Electricity Board AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir APs Anaerobic Treatment Ponds ASTAE Asia Sustainable & Alternative Energy Program BISE Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education BOP Bank of Punjab CCI Council of Common Interest CDGK City District Government Karachi CEO Chief Executive Officer CPPA (G) Central Power Purchase Agency (Guarantee) CSP Concentrated Solar Power DC Direct Current DISCO Distribution Company ELR Energy Loss Reduction ESCO Energy Service Company FH Frere Hall FPs Facultative Treatment Ponds FST Final Settlement Tanks FY Fiscal Year GKBWSS Greater Karachi Bulk Water Supply System GPO General Post Office GSO Grid System Operation GWh Giga Watt hours HP Horse Power HPS Hub Pumping Station HT High Tension IESCO Islamabad Electric Supply Company IPPs Independent Power Producers JPMC Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre KDA Karachi Development Authority i June 2016 VOL 1 0F 3FRT16-V05-WBDG.DOCX Demand For Distributed Renewable Energy Generation In Pakistan KDHL Khaliq Dina Hall Library K-ELECTRIC Karachi Electric KESC Karachi Electric Supply Company Limited KMC Karachi Metropolitan Corporation KPT Karachi Port Trust KWSB Karachi Water & Sewerage Board KW Kilowatt LESCO Lahore Electric Supply Company LGH Lyari General Hospital LML Liaquat Memorial Library LT Low Tension MD Maximum Demand MGD Millions of Gallons per Day MVA Mega-Volt Ampere MW Megawatt NBP National Bank of Pakistan NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority NEK North East Karachi Pumping Station PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PDC Power Distribution Centre P&E Planning & Engineering PKR Pakistani Rupee PPP Public Private Partnership PR Pakistan Railway PST Primary Settlement Tanks PTV Pakistan Television Corporation Limited PV Photo Voltaic QA Solar Quaid-e-Azam Solar Power (Pvt.) Ltd QAHM Quaid-e-Azam House Museum RBSs Re-Broadcast Stations SBB State Bank Building SDO Sub- Divisional Officer SMIU Sindh Madressatul Islam University SNGPL Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited ii June 2016 VOL 1 0F 3FRT16-V05-WBDG.DOCX Demand For Distributed Renewable Energy Generation In Pakistan SSH Sindh Services Hospital SSP SP-HQ Senior Superintendent Police, South Police Headquarters STP Software Technology Park T&D Transmission & Distribution TF Treatment Facility ToR Terms of Reference T/L Transmission Line T/TI Telecom Telematique Inc. UPS Uninterruptible Power Supply US United States WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority WASA Water and Sanitation Agency WB The World Bank iii June 2016 VOL 1 0F 3FRT16-V05-WBDG.DOCX Demand For Distributed Renewable Energy Generation In Pakistan EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For the last decade Pakistan has been suffering from a persistent power sector crisis, with insufficient generation capacity to meet demand. As a result the power system frequently operates under stress conditions with significant load shedding, especially during the summer season, when the gap between supply and demand reaches its peak. One attractive and increasingly cost-effective way to help plug the gap, and meet growing electricity demand, is the deployment of alternative renewable energy sources like wind, solar, waste-to-energy, bioenergy, and geothermal. There is already some investment in biomass, solar and wind, but the potential for scale- up is much larger. The energy sector is one of three priority areas for The World Bank’s engagement in Pakistan. This includes development of renewable power generation, so that the energy sector meets electricity demand in an efficient, affordable and environmentally sustainable manner. The World Bank commissioned this study to assess the potential for distributed energy generation, particularly through solar for large public buildings, major hospitals, major universities, water supply and sewerage pumps, agricultural pumps and agro processing units in selected areas of Pakistan. This is part of a broader activity titled ‘Strategy for Scale-Up of Renewable Energy in Pakistan’ [Project ID: P146251], which includes a number of other components. There is increasing international interest in solar power due to continued cost reductions, with investment occurring at every part of the spectrum. Within urban areas, solar can be installed on rooftops, industrial zones, carparks, or in redundant areas surrounding buildings, providing power during the daytime that can help offset consumer demand. Any surplus power can be fed into the grid, thereby contributing to power supply in major load centers without requiring new transmission or distribution lines. The objectives of this study are to: Analyze the potential demand for provision of electricity from distributed renewable energy generation to help power water supply and sewage pumps, hospitals, universities and other large public buildings in Karachi and Lahore; Identify possible sites (including rooftops) for solar photovoltaic installations in Karachi and Lahore; Analyze distributed renewable energy generation potential in remote grid- connected areas by identifying promising locations which exhibit the iv June 2016 VOL 1 0F 3FRT16-V05-WBDG.DOCX Demand For Distributed Renewable Energy Generation In Pakistan characteristics of, among others: land availability, technical feasibility, economic viability with limited government intervention, and a potentially interested off-taker (DISCO). Élan Partners (Pvt.) Limited Islamabad in association with Telecom Telematique Inc. (T/TI) USA was awarded the contract for this study following a competitive procurement, and the work involved desktop analysis, data gathering from the respective distribution supply companies, site visits to all the buildings and facilities covered, and finally analysis