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20. Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling of the San Gabriel River Watershed

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20. Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling of the San Gabriel River Watershed SEPTEMBER 2009 20. Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling of the San Gabriel River Watershed Jingfen Sheng John P. Wilson Acknowledgements: Financial support for this work was provided by the San Gabriel and Lower Los Angeles Rivers and Mountains Conservancy, as part of the “Green Visions Plan for 21st Century Southern California” Project. The authors thank Travis Longcore and Jennifer Wolch for their comments and edits on this paper. The authors would also like to thank Eric Stein, Drew Ackerman, Ken Hoffman, Wing Tam, and Betty Dong for their timely advice and encouragement. Prepared for: San Gabriel and Lower Los Angeles Rivers and Mountains Conservancy 100 N. Old San Gabriel Canyon Road Azusa, CA 91702. Preferred Citation: Sheng, J., and Wilson, J.P., 2009. The Green Visions Plan for 21st Century Southern California: 21. Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling for the San Gabriel River Watershed Model. University of Southern California GIS Research Laboratory, Los Angeles, California. This report was printed on recycled paper. The mission of the Green Visions Plan for 21st Century Southern California is to offer a guide to habitat conservation, watershed health and recreational open space for the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The Plan will also provide decision support tools to nurture a living green matrix for southern California. Our goals are to protect and restore natural areas, restore natural hydrological function, promote equitable access to open space, and maximize support via multiple-use facilities. The Plan is a joint venture between the University of Southern California and the San Gabriel and lower Los Angeles Rivers and Mountains Conservancy, Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy, Coastal Conservancy, and Baldwin Hills Conservancy. www.greenvisionsplan.net TaBLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................2 2 Data Needs for Watershed Hydrologic Modeling ................................................................................5 2.1 Precipitation .......................................................................................................................................5 2.2 Potential Evapotranspiration ..........................................................................................................5 2.3 Streamflow ..........................................................................................................................................7 2.4 Point Source Discharges ..................................................................................................................7 2.5 Water Regulation Data ....................................................................................................................8 2.6 Water Quality Data ..........................................................................................................................9 3 Subwatershed Delineation and Characterization .............................................................................. 11 4. Model Calibration and Validation ....................................................................................................... 12 4.1 NAM Rainfall-Runoff Model Configuration ......................................................................... 12 4.2 Hydrology Calibration and Validation ..................................................................................... 13 4.2.1 Hydrology Calibration Results ........................................................................................ 14 4.2.2 Hydrology Validation Results .......................................................................................... 15 4.3 Water Quality Calibration and Validation ............................................................................... 16 5 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 17 6 Discussion and Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 28 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 31 Appendix A Hydrology Calibration and Validation Graphs and Tables ......................................... 33 Appendix B Water Quality Calibration and Validation Graphs and Tables ................................... 49 LIST OF FIGURES 1 MIKE BASIN’s water allocation modeling structure (DHI 2007) .........................................................................2 2 Schematic layout of MIKE BASIN’s network modeling approach (DHI 2007) ..................................................3 3 Precipitation, flow and evapotranspiration gauge locations in/near the Santa Monica Bay watershed ............6 4 Watershed and stream segmentation ...............................................................................................................................11 5 NAM model schematic ......................................................................................................................................................12 6 Flow volumes in acre feet and as a percentage of annual flows for Malibu and Ballona creeks ..........................17 7 Cumulative flow discharges along the stream network ...............................................................................................19 8 Monthly nutrients loads in kilograms and percentages for Ballona Creek at Sawtelle Blvd (N121) ................20 9a NH4 nutrients loads along the stream network .........................................................................................................21 9b NO3 nutrients loads along the stream network .........................................................................................................22 9c TP nutrients loads along the stream network ..............................................................................................................23 10a NH4 nutrient fluxes associated with each subcatchment .......................................................................................24 10b NO3 nutrient fluxes associated with each subcatchment ......................................................................................25 10c TP nutrient fluxes associated with each subcatchment ...........................................................................................26 11 NO3 load estimated using the simulated flow volume and NO3 concentration for the S01 Ballona Creek (N121) mass emission site .............................................................................................................................................27 A-1 Calibration results for USGS 11104000/F54C-R TOPANGA CREEK NR TOPANGA BCH CA gauging station .................................................................................................................................................................34 A-2 Validation results for USGS 11105500/F130-R MALIBU CREEK AT CRATER CAMP NR CALABASAS CA gauging station .............................................................................................................................36 A-3 Validation results for USGS 11103500/F38C-R BALLONA CREEK NR CULVER CITY CA gauging station .................................................................................................................................................................................38 A-4 Validation results for the LADPW F304-R Walnut Creek gauging station ......................................................40 A-5 Validation results for the LADPW F312B-R San Jose Channel gauging station .............................................41 A-6 Validation results for the LADPW F354-R Coyote Creek gauging station ......................................................42 A-7 Validation results for the LADPW F274B-R Dalton Wash gauging station .....................................................43 A-8 Validation results for the LADPW U8-R San Gabriel River below Morris Dam gauging station ................44 A-9 Validation results for the LADPW F190-R San Gabriel River at Foothill Boulevard gauging station ........45 A-10 Validation results for the USGS 11087020 San Gabriel River above Whittier Narrows Dam, CA gauging station .................................................................................................................................................................................46 A-11 Validation results for the F263C San Gabriel River below San Gabriel River Parkway gauging station ...47 A-12 Validation results for the USGS 11088000/ F42B-R San Gabriel River at Spring Street near Los Alamitos,CA gauging station ........................................................................................................................................48 B-1 Time series comparison of modeled and observed NH4, NO3 and P_tot concentrations at the S01 Ballona Creek Mass Emission site ................................................................................................................................50 B-2 Time series comparison of modeled and observed NH4, NO3 and P_tot concentrations at the
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