Gender and Jury Selection
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Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years. -
Ilidigital Master Anton 2.Indd
services are developed to be used by humans. Thus, understanding humans understanding Thus, humans. by used be to developed are services obvious than others but certainly not less complex. Most products bioengineering, and as shown in this magazine. Psychology mightbusiness world. beBe it more the comparison to relationships, game elements, or There are many non-business flieds which can betransfered to the COGNTIVE COGNTIVE is key to a succesfully develop a product orservice. is keytoasuccesfullydevelopproduct BIASES by ANTON KOGER The Power of Power The //PsychologistatILI.DIGITAL WE EDIT AND REINFORCE SOME WE DISCARD SPECIFICS TO WE REDUCE EVENTS AND LISTS WE STORE MEMORY DIFFERENTLY BASED WE NOTICE THINGS ALREADY PRIMED BIZARRE, FUNNY, OR VISUALLY WE NOTICE WHEN WE ARE DRAWN TO DETAILS THAT WE NOTICE FLAWS IN OTHERS WE FAVOR SIMPLE-LOOKING OPTIONS MEMORIES AFTER THE FACT FORM GENERALITIES TO THEIR KEY ELEMENTS ON HOW THEY WERE EXPERIENCED IN MEMORY OR REPEATED OFTEN STRIKING THINGS STICK OUT MORE SOMETHING HAS CHANGED CONFIRM OUR OWN EXISTING BELIEFS MORE EASILY THAN IN OURSELVES AND COMPLETE INFORMATION way we see situations but also the way we situationsbutalsotheway wesee way the biasesnotonlychange Furthermore, overload. cognitive avoid attention, ore situations, guide help todesign massively can This in. take people information of kind explainhowandwhat ofperception egory First,biasesinthecat andappraisal. ory, self,mem perception, into fourcategories: roughly bedivided Cognitive biasescan within thesesituations. forusers interaction andeasy in anatural situationswhichresults sible toimprove itpos and adaptingtothesebiasesmakes ingiven situations.Reacting ways certain act sively helpstounderstandwhypeople mas into consideration biases ing cognitive Tak humanbehavior. topredict likely less or andmore relevant illusionsare cognitive In each situation different every havior day. -
John Collins, President, Forensic Foundations Group
On Bias in Forensic Science National Commission on Forensic Science – May 12, 2014 56-year-old Vatsala Thakkar was a doctor in India but took a job as a convenience store cashier to help pay family expenses. She was stabbed to death outside her store trying to thwart a theft in November 2008. Bloody Footwear Impression Bloody Tire Impression What was the threat? 1. We failed to ask ourselves if this was a footwear impression. 2. The appearance of the impression combined with the investigator’s interpretation created prejudice. The accuracy of our analysis became threatened by our prejudice. Types of Cognitive Bias Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases | Accessed on April 14, 2014 Anchoring or focalism Hindsight bias Pseudocertainty effect Illusory superiority Levels-of-processing effect Attentional bias Hostile media effect Reactance Ingroup bias List-length effect Availability heuristic Hot-hand fallacy Reactive devaluation Just-world phenomenon Misinformation effect Availability cascade Hyperbolic discounting Recency illusion Moral luck Modality effect Backfire effect Identifiable victim effect Restraint bias Naive cynicism Mood-congruent memory bias Bandwagon effect Illusion of control Rhyme as reason effect Naïve realism Next-in-line effect Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect Illusion of validity Risk compensation / Peltzman effect Outgroup homogeneity bias Part-list cueing effect Belief bias Illusory correlation Selective perception Projection bias Peak-end rule Bias blind spot Impact bias Semmelweis -
50 Cognitive and Affective Biases in Medicine (Alphabetically)
50 Cognitive and Affective Biases in Medicine (alphabetically) Pat Croskerry MD, PhD, FRCP(Edin), Critical Thinking Program, Dalhousie University Aggregate bias: when physicians believe that aggregated data, such as those used to develop clinical practice guidelines, do not apply to individual patients (especially their own), they are exhibiting the aggregate fallacy. The belief that their patients are atypical or somehow exceptional, may lead to errors of commission, e.g. ordering x-rays or other tests when guidelines indicate none are required. Ambiguity effect: there is often an irreducible uncertainty in medicine and ambiguity is associated with uncertainty. The ambiguity effect is due to decision makers avoiding options when the probability is unknown. In considering options on a differential diagnosis, for example, this would be illustrated by a tendency to select options for which the probability of a particular outcome is known over an option for which the probability is unknown. The probability may be unknown because of lack of knowledge or because the means to obtain the probability (a specific test, or imaging) is unavailable. The cognitive miser function (choosing an option that requires less cognitive effort) may also be at play here. Anchoring: the tendency to perceptually lock on to salient features in the patient’s initial presentation too early in the diagnostic process, and failure to adjust this initial impression in the light of later information. This bias may be severely compounded by the confirmation bias. Ascertainment bias: when a physician’s thinking is shaped by prior expectation; stereotyping and gender bias are both good examples. Attentional bias: the tendency to believe there is a relationship between two variables when instances are found of both being present. -
1 Embrace Your Cognitive Bias
1 Embrace Your Cognitive Bias http://blog.beaufortes.com/2007/06/embrace-your-co.html Cognitive Biases are distortions in the way humans see things in comparison to the purely logical way that mathematics, economics, and yes even project management would have us look at things. The problem is not that we have them… most of them are wired deep into our brains following millions of years of evolution. The problem is that we don’t know about them, and consequently don’t take them into account when we have to make important decisions. (This area is so important that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in 2002 for work tying non-rational decision making, and cognitive bias, to mainstream economics) People don’t behave rationally, they have emotions, they can be inspired, they have cognitive bias! Tying that into how we run projects (project leadership as a compliment to project management) can produce results you wouldn’t believe. You have to know about them to guard against them, or use them (but that’s another article)... So let’s get more specific. After the jump, let me show you a great list of cognitive biases. I’ll bet that there are at least a few that you haven’t heard of before! Decision making and behavioral biases Bandwagon effect — the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias. Bias blind spot — the tendency not to compensate for one’s own cognitive biases. Choice-supportive bias — the tendency to remember one’s choices as better than they actually were. -
Debiasing Management Decisions: Overcoming the Practice/Theory Gap Within the Managerial Decision Process
Debiasing Management Decisions: Overcoming the practice/theory gap within the managerial decision process TAKE CONFERENCE 2021 Practitioner’s stream Christian Muntwiler University St. Gallen Institute for Media and Communication Management Blumenbergplatz 9 CH-9000 Abstract: The impact of cognitive biases on (managerial) decisions has been recognized over the last decades with a recent surge due to the COVID-19 based policy making. This article analyzes existing debiasing techniques to mitigate the influence of cognitive biases on (managerial) decisions and links the theoretical perspective with the practice. As debiasing techniques have a surprisingly little awareness among managers a card-sort experiment was applied to search for a more practice-oriented understanding and structure of debiasing techniques with the goal of developing a framework that helps practitioners to integrate debiasing techniques more easily in their decision processes. The result of the experiment shows 9 clusters of debiasing techniques (checklists, preparation, what if?, group debiasing, reason analogically, in-process debiasing, starting viewpoints, involvement, and calibration) which can be implemented in different phases of a decision process and thus may help to improve (managerial) decisions in times of uncertainty. Keywords: Debiasing, management decisions, framework, card sorting 1. Introduction Managerial decisions are influenced by the psychological context of decision makers (Bateman & Zeithaml, 1989) and are prone to cognitive biases (Barnes, 1984; Das & Teng, 1999; Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003; Powell, Lovallo, & Fox, 2011; Schwenk, 1984; Simon, 1987). The need to reduce the impact of these biases in strategy workshops and episodes has been recognized by strategy scholars (Hodgkinson, Whittington, Johnson, and Schwarz, 2006; Hodgkinson and Clarke, 2007; Jarzabkowski and Kaplan, 2015). -
Cognitive Biases Cognitive Biases and Heuristics Are Mental Shortcuts That Aid in Processing of Information, but Can Lead to Suboptimal Decisions
Cognitive Biases Cognitive biases and heuristics are mental shortcuts that aid in processing of information, but can lead to suboptimal decisions. List of Biases and Heuristics Bias/Effect Description Business Problem Category Advice Ambiguity bias Preference for known Need to We favor options that appear simple risks over unknown risks Act Fast or that have more complete information over more complex, ambiguous options. Anchoring Overreliance on initial Think of each Too Much We notice when something has information piece of Information changed. information as independently as possible, then review them collectively Anecdotal fallacy Overvaluing personal Not We find stories and patterns even in experience when Enough sparse data. compared to data Meaning Anthropomorphism Mistakenly imbuing things Not We find stories and patterns even in with human traits Enough sparse data. Meaning Appeal to novelty Belief that something new Need to In order to stay focused, we favor the is inherently superior to Act Fast immediate, relatable thing in front of status quo us over the delayed and distant. Appeal to probability Mistaking probability for Even the best Not We simplify probabilities and fallacy certainty laid plans can Enough numbers to make them easier to think fail, even when Meaning about. they are more likely than not to succeed Argument from Mistaken belief that a Some Not We fill in characteristics from fallacy fallacious argument arguments are Enough stereotypes, generalities, and prior implies that the better than Meaning histories -
Race, Cognitive Biases, and the Power of Law Student Teaching Evaluations
Race, Cognitive Biases, and the Power of Law Student Teaching Evaluations Gregory S. Parks* Decades of research shows that students’ professor evaluations are influenced by factors well-beyond how knowledgeable the professor was or how effectively they taught. Among those factors is race. While some students’ evaluative judgments of professors of color may be motivated by express racial animus, it is doubtful that such is the dominant narrative. Rather, what likely takes place are systematic deviations from rational judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations are illogically drawn. In short, students’ cognitive biases skew how they evaluate professors of color. In this Article, I explore how cognitive biases among law students influence how they perceive and evaluate law faculty of color. In addition, I contend that a handful of automatic associations and attitudes about faculty of color predict how law students evaluate them. Moreover, senior, especially white, colleagues often resist considering the role of race in law students’ evaluations because of their own inability to be mindful of their own cognitive biases. Lastly, given research largely from social and cognitive psychology, I suggest a handful of interventions for law faculty of color to better navigate classroom dynamics. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 1041 I. RACE AND COGNITIVE INFLUENCES ON LAW STUDENT TEACHING EVALUATIONS ........................................................ 1044 * Copyright © 2018 Gregory S. Parks. Associate Dean of Research, Public Engagement, and Faculty Development, and Professor of Law, Wake Forest University School of Law. Thank you to the attendees of the 2015 John Mercer Langston Writing Workshop for the invaluable feedback on how to revise this Article and for the recommendation to hold-off publishing until after tenure. -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, Pierre Dragicevic To cite this version: Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, Pierre Dragicevic. A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, In press, 26 (2), pp.1413 - 1432. 10.1109/TVCG.2018.2872577. hal-01868738v2 HAL Id: hal-01868738 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01868738v2 Submitted on 1 Oct 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. AUTHORS’ VERSION - SEPTEMBER 2018 1 A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Abstract—Information visualization designers strive to design data displays that allow for efficient exploration, analysis, and communication of patterns in data, leading to informed decisions. Unfortunately, human judgment and decision making are imperfect and often plagued by cognitive biases. There is limited empirical research documenting how these biases affect visual data analysis activities. Existing taxonomies are organized by cognitive theories that are hard to associate with visualization tasks. -
Cognitive Biases in Fitness to Practise Decision-Making
ADVICE ON BIASES IN FITNESS TO PRACTISE DECISION-MAKING IN ACCEPTED OUTCOME VERSUS PANEL MODELS FOR THE PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS AUTHORITY Prepared by: LESLIE CUTHBERT Date: 31 March 2021 Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................. 2 Background .................................................................................................. 2 Purpose of the advice.................................................................................... 3 Summary of conclusions ................................................................................ 4 Documents considered .................................................................................. 4 Technical terms and explanations ................................................................... 5 Disclaimer .................................................................................................... 5 II. How biases might affect the quality of decision-making in the AO model, as compared to the panel model .............................................................................. 6 Understanding cognitive biases in fitness to practise decision-making ............... 6 Individual Decision Maker (e.g. a Case Examiner) in AO model ......................... 8 Multiple Case Examiners .............................................................................. 17 Group Decision Maker in a Panel model of 3 or more members ....................... 22 III. Assessment of the impact of these biases, -
Taxonomies of Cognitive Bias How They Built
Three kinds of limitations Three kinds of limitations Three kinds of limitations: humans A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information • Human vision ️ has Visualization limitations Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia • 易 Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Human reasoning has limitations The Computer The Display The Computer The Display The Human The Human 2 3 4 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's ️Perceptual bias ️Perceptual bias 易 Cognitive bias paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Magnitude estimation Magnitude estimation Color perception Behaviors when humans Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, consistently behave irrationally Focusing effect, Forer effect or Barnum effect, Form function attribution bias, Framing effect, Frequency illusion or Baader–Meinhof -
Revealing List-Level Control in the Stroop Task by Uncovering Its Benefits and a Cost
Journal of Experimental Psychology: © 2011 American Psychological Association Human Perception and Performance 0096-1523/11/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/a0024670 2011, Vol. 37, No. 5, 1595–1606 Revealing List-Level Control in the Stroop Task by Uncovering Its Benefits and a Cost Julie M. Bugg, Mark A. McDaniel, Michael K. Scullin, and Todd S. Braver Washington University in St. Louis Interference is reduced in mostly incongruent relative to mostly congruent lists. Classic accounts of this list-wide proportion congruence effect assume that list-level control processes strategically modulate word reading. Contemporary accounts posit that reliance on the word is modulated poststimulus onset by item-specific information (e.g., proportion congruency of the word). To adjudicate between these accounts, we used novel designs featuring neutral trials. In two experiments, we showed that the list-wide proportion congruence effect is accompanied by a change in neutral trial color-naming performance. Because neutral words have no item-specific bias, this pattern can be attributed to list-level control. Additionally, we showed that list-level attenuation of word reading led to a cost to performance on a secondary prospective memory task but only when that task required processing of the irrelevant, neutral word. These findings indicate that the list-wide proportion congruence effect at least partially reflects list-level control and challenge purely item-specific accounts of this effect. Keywords: list-wide proportion congruence, item-specific proportion congruence, cognitive control, prospective memory In the Stroop task participants name the ink color of color words expected, participants permit word processing because the words (Stroop, 1935).