V 15, N24 Monday, Feb. 22, 2010 Senate, 8th CD into HPI Tossup Ellsworth, Van Haaften go from comfortable leads into the 2010 frying pan By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - The immedi- ate impact of U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh’s chain reaction that has resulted in the apparent annointment of U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth as the next Democratic senatorial nominee is that it’s put two Indiana congressional seats fully in play for November. While it’s too early to forecast a Republican House takeover this fall, if that should happen by one or two seats, the Bayh-Ellsworth scenario will go down in history as a debacle, providing Republican Dr. Larry Bucshon can move it into the red After a week of musical chairs, State Rep. Trent Van Haaften (left) and U.S. Rep. Brad column. Ellsworth find themselves in the 8th CD and U.S. Senate races that are tossups, as Not to mention that Bayh’s Senate opposed to races where they were comfortably ahead a week ago. (HPI Photo by seat is also off the backburner and fully in Steve Dickerson) play. Howey Politics Indiana is moving both the U.S. Senate race and the 8th CD into the others in the GOP field. He will be able to raise money the “tossup” category after last week’s bizarre events. on a national basis, something we don’t see the other con- HPI believes that Dan Coats is the Republican tenders doing. frontrunner for the Senate race. Coats has far more name A week before Bayh’s bombshell, the Democrats ID and is expected to have much greater resources than Continued on Page 3 Bayh’s new White House path By CHRIS SAUTTER CAPE CORAL, Fla. - Anyone who believes that Evan Bayh’s days as a public figure are numbered should think again. Since his surprise retirement announcement last week, Bayh has been all over the airwaves and penned ‘The people of the United States an Opinion Editorial for the New York Times (See page 7) explaining why he and Afghanistan will never be has decided to leave the Senate at the end of his second term. able to pay the debt of honor and These appearances do not seem like the final lap of an old pol headed respect owed to Sgt. Jeremy for the sunset. Rather, Bayh seems to be sending clear signals he intends McQueary.” to remain in the public arena forging - U.S. Rep, Mike Pence HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Feb. 22, 2010 a new path to his ultimate goal—the and improving public education. At the Presidency. same time, he recognized the rights Ever since Evan Bayh began of state employees to organize. Bayh’s his climb to national prominence by administration was both progressive running for Indiana Secretary of State and fiscally responsible. in 1986, it has been understood that But after a successful first he would some day be a candidate for term as governor, Bayh began to play President. During the run-up to the it safe as he looked ahead to the fu- 2008 presidential campaign, Bayh laid ture. As a U.S. Senator, Bayh estab- the necessary groundwork. He raised lished the credentials for higher office. Howey Politics significant dollars and began develop - For example, he became expert in Indiana ing a solid organization in Iowa. His foreign policy and intelligence matters. is a nonpartisan newsletter strategy was to position himself as He had developed the perfect resume the alternative to frontrunner Hillary for Vice President. But he no longer based in Indianapolis and Clinton. But he pulled out of the race came across as a change agent. He published by NewsLink Inc. It just weeks after establishing a formal lacked the basis for the kind of mes- was founded in 1994 in Fort exploratory committee in late 2006. A sage that would resonate in a national Wayne. Bayh town meeting in New Hampshire campaign. had been completely overshadowed by Bayh’s call last week for fun- Barack Obama’s first trip to the Granite damental changes in the Senate and Brian A. Howey, publisher State. Bayh, ever the realist, recog- in American politics has put him back Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington nized he had no real niche in the race in the role of reformer. In his New York Jack E. Howey, Editor and that Obama was much more likely Times Op Ed, he pledged to spend Beverly Phillips, Associate to become the alternative to Clinton. his final months as Senator fighting Editor The reality is that Bayh for reforms, including changing the lacked the kind of message that can filibuster rule and campaign finance Subscriptions: carry a presidential campaign. He laws. The media coverage of Bayh’s $350 annually HPI Weekly was running as the sole moderate in announcement was glowing. For the $550 annually HPI Weekly & the race. But presidential nomina- first time, Bayh is viewed nationally as HPI Daily Wire tion campaigns are not about ideol- a leader in changing the way Washing- Call 317-627-6746 ogy. They are contests between ton works. establishment candidates and outsider Bayh could disappear into pri- candidates, those who will carry on vate life after he serves out his term in Contact Us the party’s established tenets and the Senate. What is more likely is that Howey Politics Indiana those who want to change or reform he proposes a full agenda for change 6255 North Evanston Avenue them. As a two-term U.S. Senator and and spends significant time and ener - Indianapolis, IN 46220 former chair of the Democratic Leader- gy promoting that agenda. Some have ship Conference, Bayh was pure estab- suggested he may run for Governor of www.howeypolitics.com lishment. Hillary Clinton had locked Indiana again in 2012. Such a move [email protected] up the establishment support. Obama would give him both a showcase for Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883 and John Edwards were pushing from his ideas and an office from which to Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535 the outside with messages promoting run for President in 2016. Bayh would Washington: 202-256-5822 change. There was simply no place in only be 61 years old. that race for someone like Bayh. Instead of the closing of a Business Office: 317-627-6746 Bayh began his political career political legacy, Bayh’s retirement from as a reformer. When he ran for Secre- the Senate is more likely the beginning ©2010, Howey Politics tary of State and first ran for governor of a new chapter. Indiana. All rights reserved. of Indiana, Bayh promised to make If Bayh can recapture the Photocopying, Internet forward- state government less politicized and freshness of his early days as a reform more responsive. He ended the system politician, he has a real chance to ing, faxing or reproducing in of kicking back money from the license remain in the national conversation of any form, in whole or part, is a branches to the political parties. And, possible future presidential candidates. violation of federal law without he succeeded in holding the line on v permission from the publisher. taxes while streamlining government HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Feb. 22, 2010 Ellsworth was one of 16 Democrats to vote against the Tossups, from page 1 Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act, which would have allowed federally-funded stem-cell research, according to were pushing polling data that showed Bayh with landslide- Gannett News Service. He backed a Constitutional amend- strength leads over Republican Dan Coats and John Hostet- ment against same-sex marriage. While he differed from tler. The Rasmussen Reports polling last week showed Hostettler on the immigration issue, arguing that it would Ellsworth trailing Coats 46-32 percent, Hostettler 46-27 be impossible to lock up 12 to 20 million illegals as Hostet- percent and State Sen. Marlin Stutzman 40-30 percent. tler had urged in 2006, he introduced the Legal Employee HPI views those numbers as more baseline in Verification Act in 2007. nature. The race was still in flux when Rasmussen was in In the fall of 2008, Ellsworth supported both the field. Once the Indiana Democratic Central Committee versions of the Bush administration’s financial bailout plan, coalesces around Ellsworth, giving his candidacy an air of including the one that failed to pass the House. He told the legitimacy and he begins to develop a campaign staff and Washington Times-Herald in Indiana, “If I thought this was raising money, the polling in the next month or so will be bailing out some CEOs on Wall Street, I would have never more revealing. voted for it. Doing nothing is worse than doing something.” Ellsworth has won every election by a landslide, in- But in early 2009, he was one of 11 House Democrats to cluding the 1998 Vanderburgh County Sheriff race when he vote against President Obama’s stimulus bill. In June 2009, defeated Ed Bassemier 40,660 to 10,212. By comparsion, he voted against the Waxman-Markey greenhouse gas bill. Republican county auditor Cheryl Musgrave won 24,601 to But he did support the House version of the health care 24,581 over Roy Hamner, and Commissioner Richard Mour- reforms. dock defeated Rick Jones 25,991 to 24,560. Ellsworth ran He also introduced the Small Business Regulatory unopposed for reelection in 2002 and drew 36,000 votes. Improvement Act, which requires agencies to consider the Heading into the 2006 election cycle, Indiana economic impact of new regulation and regulatory regimes.