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User's Guide for the Total Force Blue-Line

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User's Guide for the Total Force Blue-Line PROJECT AIR FORCE User’s Guide for the Total Force Blue-Line (TFBL) Model Tara L. Terry, James H. Bigelow, James Pita, Jerry M. Sollinger, Paul Emslie Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/TL233 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Aircrew management across the Total Force is complex and would benefit from greater coordination among active and reserve components. To effect that coordination, the Air Force has established a Total Force Aircrew Management (TFAM) office. Reliable and consistent projections of requirements and inventories are critical to such coordination. To assist in making such projections, RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) has developed a modeling capability—the Total Force Blue-Line (TFBL)—that projects inventories for the active duty, Air Force Reserve, and Air National Guard. This model is being delivered to the TFAM office, and this document provides the information necessary for Air Force personnel to use the model. The research reported here was sponsored by the Air Force Director of Future Operations (AF/A3X) and Director of Military Force Management Policy (AF/A1P) and conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND PAF. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf. This report documents work shared with the U.S. Air Force over a period of several years. The draft report was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... viii Summary ......................................................................................................................................... x Chapter One. Introduction to the Total Force Blue-Line Model .................................................... 1 Overview of the Total Force Blue-Line Model ........................................................................................ 2 Overview of the Required Data ................................................................................................................ 2 Input Data ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Divisions of Data .................................................................................................................................. 3 Output Data .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter Two. Running the Total Force Blue-Line Model .............................................................. 6 Preliminary Work ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Mercier Tool Method .............................................................................................................................. 12 SAS Code Method .................................................................................................................................. 14 SAS Code Method Model Output ...................................................................................................... 16 Chapter Three. High-Level Model Description ............................................................................ 17 Model Flow ............................................................................................................................................. 17 Chapter Four. Modeling Total Force Blue-Line Excursions ........................................................ 23 Optimizing versus Forcing Production ................................................................................................... 23 Matching Historical Affiliation Rates .................................................................................................... 24 Major Airline Hiring Excursions ............................................................................................................ 28 Historical Relationship Between Hiring Surge and Loss of Air Force Pilots .................................... 28 Projected Baseline Pilot Loss Rates ................................................................................................... 29 Forecasted Major Airline Hiring Separations versus Baseline Loss Rates ........................................ 30 Projected Major Airline Hiring Pilot Loss Rates ............................................................................... 33 Chapter Five. Model Inputs and Code Versions ........................................................................... 36 Requirements .......................................................................................................................................... 36 Valid Requirement Categories ........................................................................................................... 37 Actual Requirements .......................................................................................................................... 38 Inventory ................................................................................................................................................. 39 Valid Inventory Categories ................................................................................................................. 40 iv Actual Inventory ................................................................................................................................. 41 Valid Assignments .................................................................................................................................. 42 Forced Transfers and Reductions ........................................................................................................... 44 Force Transfers ................................................................................................................................... 44 Reductions in Forces .......................................................................................................................... 45 Production ............................................................................................................................................... 46 Distribution of NPS Production Across CYOS .................................................................................. 46 NPS Production .................................................................................................................................. 47 CYOS 0 Entries .................................................................................................................................. 49 Losses ..................................................................................................................................................... 49 Affiliations .............................................................................................................................................. 52 Allowed Affiliations ..........................................................................................................................
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