Glasgow and Clyde Valley Migration Report

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland’s people

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Migration Report

Published August 2010

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Migration Report

General Register Office for Scotland Contents

1. Introduction...... 3 1.1 Background ...... 3 1.2 Research into improving Migration and Population Statistics ...... 4 2. General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) migration data ...... 5 2.1 Glasgow and the Clyde Valley recent migration summary mid-2008 to mid-2009...... 5 2.2 Historical net total migration ...... 7 2.3 Migration outside Scotland – net and gross migration flows...... 9 2.4 Overseas migration flows ...... 14 2.5 Age-profile of migrants ...... 16 3. Other data that inform on migration...... 20 3.1 NHS registrations from overseas...... 20 3.2 Country of birth...... 24 3.3 Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) ...... 25 3.4 National Insurance number allocations...... 26 3.5 Mothers’ country of birth ...... 31 3.6 Pupil Census ...... 36 3.7 Asylum Seekers...... 42 4. Data source methodology and further information ...... 43 4.1 GROS official migration estimates...... 43 4.1.1 Sources of migration data...... 43 4.1.2 Internal migration...... 43 4.1.3 International migration ...... 43 4.1.4 Distribution of international migrants within Scotland ...... 44 4.2 Data from other sources ...... 44 4.2.1 NHS registrations from overseas...... 44 4.2.2 Country of birth...... 45 4.2.3 Worker Registration Scheme...... 45 4.2.4 National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals ... 45 4.2.5 Pupil Census ...... 46 4.3 Migration data sources – strengths and limitations...... 47 4.3.1 GROS mid-year estimates...... 47 4.3.2 Census ...... 47 4.3.3 NHS registrations from overseas...... 47 4.3.4 Labour Force Survey (country of birth) ...... 47 4.3.5 Worker Registration Scheme...... 47 4.3.6 National Insurance Number allocations to foreign nationals...... 47 4.3.7 Mothers’ country of birth ...... 48 4.3.8 Pupil Census ...... 48 Annex A - Further sources of data informing on migration ...... 49 Central Government data ...... 49 Other data...... 49 Annex B – Abbreviations used ...... 50 Annex C – EU and EU accession countries ...... 51

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

The Scottish Government has identified population growth is a key contributor to, and a consequence of, a more vibrant society and a more dynamic economy. Attracting migrants to Scotland is one method being used to meet the Government’s high level purpose target to match average European (EU15) population growth to 2017. High quality migration statistics are therefore increasingly important, both for policy development and for the planning and provision of public services.

Migration is the most difficult component of population change to estimate. Unlike births and deaths, there is no comprehensive system for the registration of moves to or from the rest of the world, nor for moves within the UK. Estimates of migration are therefore based on survey data and the best proxy data available. The General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) is responsible for producing the official estimates of migration between Scotland and the rest of the world and migration within Scotland.

In addition to the official estimates, other sources of data also provide information on migration. Although these alternative sources offer less complete migration data, they may prove useful. For example, the data may be available in a more timely fashion or it may provide accurate information on a specific group of migrants. By using the GROS estimates of migration in conjunction with data from other sources a fuller picture of migration can be built up.

The aim of this report is to facilitate the analysis of migration by collating relevant information from a number of different sources. The official estimates of migration at Council and NHS Board level produced by the General Register Office for Scotland are presented first. These estimates describe migration at three levels: within Scotland, within the UK and overseas. The next section shows data from several other sources that inform on migration to the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area. A list of further sources of information that may act as indicators of migration is given in Annex A. This report is geographically focused on Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire. North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, East Renfrewshire, Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire Council areas and Argyll & Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire NHS Board areas1. The background data for the charts and tables shown in this report are available on request, please contact:

Statistics Customer Services, General Register Office for Scotland, Ladywell House, Edinburgh, EH12 7TF

Telephone 0131 314 4299, email [email protected]

1 In April 2006 Argyll & Clyde Health Board was dissolved. The Argyll & Bute Council area part of the dissolved Health Board was transferred to Highland Health Board and the remainder transferred to Greater Glasgow Health Board. However, data for Argyll & Clyde is included in this report so that a consistent time-series of data going back to 2001 is maintained. Data for the new Glasgow & Clyde and Highland Health Boards from mid-2006 onwards is available by contacting GROS statistics customer services as detailed above.

1.2 Research into improving Migration and Population Statistics

The migration data sources reported here represent the best information currently available. However, work to improve migration data is on-going, both at Scotland and UK level. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is taking forward the recommendations of the 2006 Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics, through Improvements to Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) research. The IMPS workplan involves migration research (both international and internal within the UK), collaborative work with local authorities with respect to greater use of administrative data sources to improve local estimates and population definitional issues.

GROS is involved in a number of workstreams within this programme with the aim of incorporating the research into its outputs. This work includes the investigation and development of administrative sources not currently used in the production of population estimates, such as data on students from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), the School Census, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data on benefits and employment. Improvements in the quality and efficiency of the system for using data from GP registrations are also being made. Other areas of joint working include the estimation of short term migrant numbers for Scotland, a review of the method of allocation of international migrants to Council areas, the development of indicators of migration at local authority level and early indications of changes in population trends.

2. GROS migration data

Most of the migration data produced by the General Register Office for Scotland is included in the annual mid-year population estimates publication2. The migration section of the GROS website3 has recently been expanded to include this data and other migration data held by GROS. A description of where the data presented in this section of the report can be found is given in the text accompanying each chart and table. Further details on the methods used to produce the estimates are given in the Methodology section. Rates per 1,000 population were calculated using the relevant mid-year population estimate.

2.1 Glasgow and the Clyde Valley recent migration summary - mid-2008 to mid-2009

• Table 1 (next page) shows the migration flows to Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Councils, split by within Scotland, rest of UK and overseas migration. • These data were extracted from Table 5 ‘Components of migration by administrative area’ of the GROS Mid-Year Population Estimates Scotland and represent GROS official estimates of Council area migration. • The mid-2006 to mid-2007 period was the first time that this data had been published. This data is now published annually as part of the GROS mid-year population estimates for Scotland. The equivalent data for previous years is not available as different processing was used that did not distinguish between overseas and rest of UK migration. • Within UK migration (i.e. within Scotland and Rest of UK) is based on GP registration moves recorded by the NHS Central Register (NHSCR). Movements to/from the armed forces are included in the figures shown in Table 1. • The primary source for overseas migration is the International Passenger Survey.

Table 1 GROS official components of migration 2008/9. East East North South West SCOTLAND Dunbartonshire Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire Dunbartonshire rate rate rate rate rate rate rate rate rate per per per per per per per per per Total 1000† Total 1000 Total 1000 Total 1000 Total 1000 Total 1000 Total 1000 Total 1000 Total 1000

Total 90,240 17 3,296 31 2,955 33 29,572 51 1,333 17 7,042 22 4,719 28 8,121 26 2,338 26 Within In Scotland n/a n/a 2,615 25 2,469 28 13,923 24 860 11 4,956 15 3,322 20 5,995 19 1,748 19 Rest of UK 47,540 9 494 5 344 4 6,108 10 319 4 1,238 4 780 5 1,446 5 403 4 Overseas 42,700 8 187 2 142 2 9,541 16 154 2 848 3 617 4 680 2 187 2

Total 68,545 13 3,366 32 2,927 33 25,993 44 1,715 21 7,074 22 4,559 27 7,592 24 2,342 26 Within Out Scotland n/a n/a 2,618 25 2,341 26 15,444 26 1,144 14 4,971 15 3,171 19 5,224 17 1,734 19 Rest of UK 43,345 8 520 5 390 4 6,085 10 371 5 1,219 4 856 5 1,506 5 417 5 Overseas 25,200 5 228 2 196 2 4,464 8 200 2 884 3 532 3 862 3 191 2

Total 21,695 4 -70 -1 28 0 3,579 6 -382 -5 -32 0 160 1 529 2 -4 0 Within Net Scotland 0 0 -3 0 128 1 -1,521 -3 -284 -4 -15 0 151 1 771 2 14 0 Rest of UK 4,195 1 -26 0 -46 -1 23 0 -52 -1 19 0 -76 0 -60 0 -14 0 Overseas 17,500 3 -41 0 -54 -1 5,077 9 -46 -1 -36 0 85 1 -182 -1 -4 0 († The rate per 1000 for total migration at Scotland level cannot be compared with the Council level rate per 1000 total migration as the Council level rate includes within Scotland moves.)

2.2 Historical net total migration

Figure 1a

Net total migration 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000

Migrants -6,000 -8,000 -10,000 -12,000 -14,000 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Year East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire (source: GROS).

Figure 1b

Net total migration per 1,000 population 20

-5

-10

-15 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants

-20 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Year East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

(source: GROS)

• Figure 1a shows the official GROS net total migration estimates for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Councils as an annual time-series from mid-1982 to latest mid- year estimate. Total migration includes migration within Scotland, the rest of the UK and overseas. • Figure 1b shows the net total migration estimates for Council areas, expressed as migrants per 1,000 population. • Net migration by administrative area is published annually as part of the GROS Mid-year Population Estimate Scotland publication, Table 4 ‘Components of population change by administrative area’ from 2001 onwards. Before 2001, the

components of change can be found within the publications of revised mid-year estimates which took place following the 2001 Census. • The time series of net migration by administrative area is available under ‘Total migration to or from an area’ in the migration section of the GROS website4. • Prior to 2001 these data included ‘other changes’. This could have a big impact in certain Council areas, for example where there are large numbers of armed forces. • These data are compiled from NHSCR, Community Health Index (CHI) and International Passenger Survey (IPS) data sources.

2.3 Migration outside Scotland – net and gross migration flows

Figure 2a Outside Scotland net migration per 1,000 population 12

8 6

4 2

-2 Migrants per 1,000 population -4

-6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

(source: GROS)

Figure 2b

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population East Dunbartonshire 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -10 -12 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2c

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population East Renfrewshire 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -10 -12 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2d

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population Glasgow City 30

-10

-20 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2e

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population Inverclyde 15

-5

-10 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -15 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2f

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population North Lanarkshire 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -8 -10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2g

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population Renfrewshire 15

-5

-10 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -15 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2h

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population South Lanarkshire 15

-5

-10 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -15 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

Figure 2i

Outside Scotland migration flows per 1,000 population West Dunbartonshire 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -10 -12 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year In Out Net

(source: GROS)

• Figure 2 shows migration between Council areas and places outside Scotland (i.e. Rest of UK and overseas) expressed as number of migrants per 1,000 population. • The data is produced annually as mid-year data and is available on request from GROS. • These data can be further broken-down by sex and quinary age-group for in and out flows. Net figures are available by sex and single year of age. • The data is produced using Community Health Index (CHI), NHSCR and IPS data sources.

2.4 Overseas migration flows

Figure 3a Overseas migration per 1,000 population, Scotland and Argyll and Clyde NHS Board 5

-1

-2

-3 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -4

-5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year Argyll and Clyde In Argyll and Clyde Out Argyll and Clyde Net Scotland net

(source: GROS)

Figure 3b Overseas migration per 1,000 population, Scotland and Glasgow NHS Board 15

-5 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants

-10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year Glasgow In Glasgow Out Glasgow Net Scotland net

(source: GROS)

Figure 3c Overseas migration per 1,000 population, Scotland and Lanarkshire NHS Board 4

-1

-2 Migrants per 1,000 population 1,000 per Migrants -3

-4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mid-year Lanarkshire In Lanarkshire Out Lanarkshire Net Scotland net

(source: GROS)

• Figure 3 shows the net overseas migration for Argyll & Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire NHS Board and Scotland (lines). Also shown are the overseas migration flows (in and out) for Argyll & Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire NHS Board (bars). All the data are shown as a rate per 1,000 people. • Overseas migration estimates are produced annually (mid-year to mid-year) and are available back to mid-2002 for NHS Boards and mid-2007 for Council Areas on the GROS website5. The equivalent data for previous years is not available as different processing was used that did not distinguish between overseas and rest of UK migration. • The data can be further broken-down by age and sex. • These overseas migration figures are from the overseas migration element of the mid-year population estimates (go to the Methodology section).

2.5 Age-profile of migrants

Figure 4a

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, East Dunbartonshire

150

100

0 In Out Migrants -50 Net

-100

-150 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4b

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, East Renfrewshire

150

100

0 In Out Migrants -50 Net

-100

-150 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4c

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, Glasgow City

2,000

1,500

1,000

500 In 0 Out Migrants Net -500

-1,000

-1,500 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4d

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, Inverclyde

0 In -20 Out Migrants Net -40

-60

-80 0 3 6 9 121518212427303336394245485154576063666972757881848790 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4e

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, North Lanarkshire

300

200

100

0 In Out Migrants -100 Net

-200

-300 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4f

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, Renfrewshire

200

150

100 50

0 In Out Migrants -50 Net -100 -150

-200 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4g

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, South Lanarkshire

300

200

100

0 In Out Migrants -100 Net

-200

-300 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

Figure 4h

Average annual migrants 2007-2009, West Dunbartonshire

100 80 60 40 20 0 In Out

Migrants -20 -40 Net -60 -80 -100 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 & over Age

(source: GROS)

• These charts show the age-profile of in, out and net migrants to all areas averaged over the years 2007-2009. • The are available on the GROS website6.

3. Other data that inform on migration

3.1 NHS registrations from overseas

Figure 5a

NHS registrations from overseas - Argyll & Clyde NHS Board 800 700 600 500 400 300 Registrations 200 100 0 123412341234123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter Overseas quarterly 12 month moving average

(source: GROS/NHSCR)

Figure 5b

NHS registrations from overseas - Greater Glasgow NHS Board 6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000 Registrations

1,000

0 123412341234123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter Overseas quarterly 12 month moving average

(source: GROS/NHSCR)

Figure 5c

NHS registrations from overseas - Lanarkshire NHS Board 800 700 600 500 400 300 Registrations 200 100 0 123412341234123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter Overseas quarterly 12 month moving average

(source: GROS/NHSCR)

• Figure 5 shows the number of people who have come from overseas and registered with a GP in the Argyll & Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire NHS Board areas, each quarter since 2001, together with a twelve-month moving average. • Figure 6 compares the number of registrations from those coming from overseas with registrations from the rest of the UK for Argyll & Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire NHS Boards. • These data include short-term overseas migrants, unlike the GROS overseas migration estimates that only count overseas migrants staying for 12 months or more. • The data is an extract from the NHSCR database. • NHS GP registrations from overseas data are used to produce the age and sex distributions of international in-migrants in the GROS mid-year estimates. For this use, a lag is assumed between arrival and registration. More information is available from the Data source methodology and information section.

Figure 6a

Overseas and rest of UK NHS registrations - Argyll & Clyde NHS Board 4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 Registrations 1,000

500

0 123412341234123412341234123412341234

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter Argyll & Clyde rest of UK Argyll & Clyde overseas

(source: GROS/NHSCR)

Figure 6b

Overseas and rest of UK NHS registrations - Greater Glasgow NHS Board 14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000 Registrations 4,000

2,000

0 123412341234123412341234123412341234

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter Greater Glasgow rest of UK Greater Glasgow overseas

(source: GROS/NHSCR)

Figure 6c

Overseas and rest of UK NHS registrations - Lanarkshire NHS Board 4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 Registrations 1,000

500

0 123412341234123412341234123412341234

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter Lanarkshire rest of UK Lanarkshire overseas

(source: GROS/NHSCR)

3.2 Country of birth

Table 2 Non-UK country of birth for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Councils Country of birth - non United Kingdom (thousands)

2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ci ci ci ci ci ci Census Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- Scotland 191.6 204 14 222 14 228 15 255 16 289 17 304 18

East Dunbartonshire 4.0 * - 4 1 4 1 4 1 5 2 * - East Renfrewshire 3.4 * - 3 1 4 1 4 1 3 1 4 1 Glasgow City 32.7 43 11 48 12 45 11 57 12 62 13 68 13 Inverclyde 2.1 * - * - * - * - * - * - North Lanarkshire 5.5 * - * - * - * - * - * - Renfrewshire 4.4 * - * - * - 7 2 9 3 7 3 South Lanarkshire 6.2 * - * - * - * - * - * - West Dunbartonshire 2.2 * - * - * - * - * - * - (source: Annual Population Survey and Scotland’s Census). (ci= confidence interval, ‘*’ = data suppressed due to low confidence, ‘-‘ = not applicable).

• This table shows the number of people living in Scotland and local Council Areas that were born outside the UK. • These data come from the Annual Population Survey (APS) and the Scotland’s Census 2001. The APS comprises data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), plus data from the Annual Local (Area) Labour Force Survey Boosts for England, Scotland and Wales. • For some Council areas only Census data is available as the number of people born outside the United Kingdom is too small for a reliable estimate to be made from the APS. • The population by country of birth and the related statistics on population by nationality are updated quarterly and can be found on the GROS website under ‘Estimates of special populations’ 7.

3.3 Worker Registration Scheme (WRS)

Figure 7

WRS: A8 workers with employer in Scotland

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000 Persons 2,000

1,000

0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter

(source: Accession Monitoring Reports, Home Office)

• This chart shows the number of workers from A8 countries with an employer in Scotland on a quarterly basis from 2004 (accession took place 1st May 2004). • Nationals of the A8 countries (those countries which joined the EU on 1 May 2004 with the exception of Cyprus and Malta, namely: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) who wish to work as an employee in the UK are generally required to register with the WRS. • These figures exclude the self-employed, those not working and those not from A8 countries and do not provide any indication of out migration. • WRS data at Council Area level is available to Councils through the Local Government Association website8.

3.4 National Insurance number allocations

Figure 8a

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - East Dunbartonshire

100

70 European Union EU Accession States 60 Other European 50 Africa Asia and Middle East 40 The Americas NINo allocations 30 Australasia and Oceania

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8b

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - East Renfrewshire

100

70 European Union EU Accession States 60 Other European 50 Africa Asia and Middle East 40 The Americas NINo allocations 30 Australasia and Oceania

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8c

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - Glasgow City

6,000

5,000

European Union 4,000 EU Accession States Other European 3,000 Africa Asia and Middle East The Americas

NINo allocations 2,000 Australasia and Oceania

1,000

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8d

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - Inverclyde

180

160

140 European Union 120 EU Accession States 100 Other European Africa 80 Asia and Middle East The Americas

NINo allocations 60 Australasia and Oceania 40

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8e

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - North Lanarkshire

1,400

1,200

1,000 European Union EU Accession States 800 Other European Africa 600 Asia and Middle East The Americas NINo allocations 400 Australasia and Oceania

200

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8f

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - Renfrewshire

800

700

600 European Union 500 EU Accession States Other European 400 Africa Asia and Middle East 300 The Americas NINo allocations Australasia and Oceania 200

100

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8g

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - South Lanarkshire

700

600

500 European Union EU Accession States 400 Other European Africa 300 Asia and Middle East The Americas NINo allocations 200 Australasia and Oceania

100

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Figure 8h

NINo allocations to overseas nationals - West Dunbartonshire

140

120

100 European Union EU Accession States 80 Other European Africa 60 Asia and Middle East The Americas NINo allocations 40 Australasia and Oceania

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar year

(source: DWP)

Table 3 Nationalities of NINo allocations to overseas nationals in 2009

Number of nationalities Top 5 most common nationalities

East Dunbartonshire 8 Poland, India, Pakistan, Rep of Ireland, Iran

East Renfrewshire 5 Poland, India, Pakistan, Australia, Italy

Glasgow City 90 India, Poland, Nigeria, China, Slovak Rep

Inverclyde 11 Netherlands, Poland, India, France, Romania

North Lanarkshire 21 Poland, Pakistan, India, Hungary, Rep of Latvia

Renfrewshire 18 India, China, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland

South Lanarkshire 25 Poland, Pakistan, India, Rep of Latvia, Rep of Estonia

West Dunbartonshire 8 Poland, Nepal, India, Nigeria, Rep of Ireland

• Figure 8 shows the number National Insurance number (NINo) allocations to overseas nationals each calendar year from 2002. • Table 3 shows the most common and total number of nationalities to be allocated a NINo in 2009. • These data have been obtained using the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) tabulation tool website9, which has annual Council area data. The data is based on date of registration and not date of arrival. • A NINo is generally required by any overseas national looking to work or claim benefits / tax credits in the UK, including the self-employed or students working part-time. • However, the figures will generally exclude those not working, planning to work or claim benefits (for example, some dependents and some students). They also exclude returning UK nationals. The data do not provide any out-migration information.

3.5 Mothers’ country of birth

Figure 9a

Births to non-UK born mothers, East Dunbartonshire 45 40 35 30 25 20 Births 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS).

Figure 9b

Births to non-UK born mothers, East Renfrewshire 60

30 Births 20

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS).

Figure 9c

Births to non-UK born mothers, Glasgow City 800

700 600

500

400 Births 300

200 100

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS)

Figure 9d

Births to non-UK born mothers, Inverclyde 18 16 14 12 10 8 Births 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS)

Figure 9e

Births to non-UK born mothers, North Lanarkshire 100 90 80 70 60 50

Births 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS)

Figure 9f

Births to non-UK born mothers, Renfrewshire 70

Births 30

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS)

Figure 9g

Births to non-UK born mothers, South Lanarkshire 100 90 80 70 60 50

Births 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS)

Figure 9h

Births to non-UK born mothers, West Dunbartonshire 20 18 16 14 12 10

Births 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

(source: GROS)

Table 4 Births to non-UK born mothers as percentage of total births, by Council Area and calendar year Births to non-UK born mothers as a percentage of all births

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Glasgow City 12 15 15 16 18 18 20 24 24 East Dunbartonshire 5 6 8 8 7 7 8 8 8

East Renfrewshire 5 9 7 9 8 9 9 9 10

Inverclyde 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 5

North Lanarkshire 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 6 6

Renfrewshire 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 9

South Lanarkshire 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 West Dunbartonshire 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 (source: GROS)

• Figure 9 shows the annual number of births to non-UK born mothers and Table 4 shows the percentage of all births that are to non-UK mothers. • This data comes from the Vital Events team at GROS and is collected when the birth is registered. Data is available on request. • This data is produced annually.

3.6 Pupil Census

Figure 10a

English as an additional language

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000 2006 5,000 2007 2008

Pupils 4,000 2009 3,000

2,000

1,000

0 Glasgow City

(Glasgow City shown separately as it has many more pupils with English as an additional language) (source: Pupil Census)

Figure 10b

English as an additional language

900 800 700 600 2006 500 2007 400 2008 Pupils 300 2009 200 100 0

e ire re re r re de h i shi shi w on e rt r narkshi nf Invercly nfrewshire a ba e L e h un R D East R North Lanarks Sout East West Dunbartonsh

(source: Pupil Census)

Table 5 Pupils with non-English main home language Main three languages after English in 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 Glasgow City 7,305 8,062 8,624 8,984 Punjabi, Urdu, Arabic East Dunbartonshire 463 476 505 519 Punjabi, Cantonese, Urdu East Renfrewshire 1,079 1,163 1,164 1,168 Urdu, Punjabi, Cantonese Inverclyde 103 90 100 84 Cantonese, Sign Language, Punjabi North Lanarkshire 853 1,008 1,179 1,238 Polish, Punjabi, Urdu Renfrewshire 374 470 570 605 Punjabi, Polish, Urdu South Lanarkshire 708 756 845 858 Punjabi, Urdu, Cantonese West Dunbartonshire 114 165 192 200 Polish, Punjabi, Urdu

• The data shown in this section is derived mainly from the Pupil Census which is collected as part of the ScotXed programme. The data is published annually10. • Data on English as an additional language and main home language data is available from 2006; data on minority ethnic groups is available from 2003.

Figure 11a

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - East Dunbartonshire

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

Pupils 800

600

400

200

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11b

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - East Renfrewshire

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 Pupils

1,000

500

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11c

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - Glasgow City

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000 Pupils 6,000

4,000

2,000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11d

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - Inverclyde

1,200

1,000

800

600 Pupils

400

200

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11e

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - North Lanarkshire

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000 Pupils 1,500

1,000

500

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11f

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - Renfrewshire

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

Pupils 800

600

400

200

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11g

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - South Lanarkshire

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000 Pupils 1,500

1,000

500

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

Figure 11h

Pupils from minority ethnic groups - West Dunbartonshire

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

Pupils 600

400

200

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Minority ethnic White other Not disclosed/known

(source: Pupil Census)

3.7 Asylum Seekers

Figure 12

Asylum Seekers in Glasgow City Council

7,000 subsitence only support supported in accommodation 6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000 Asylum seekers Asylum 1,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year and quarter

(Source: Home Office)

• Figure 12 shows the number of asylum seekers in Glasgow City council. The data was extracted from the Home Office ‘Control of Immigration: Quarterly Statistical Summary, United Kingdom’ reports11. • These figures exclude unaccompanied asylum seeking children supported by local authorities. Most asylum seekers in Scotland are located in Glasgow City but a small number of asylum seekers are located in other local authority areas.

4. Data source methodology and further information

4.1 GROS official migration estimates

4.1.1 Sources of migration data

There are three key sources of migration data: 1) The National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) is used to calculate moves between NHS Board areas within the UK. 2) Community Health Index (CHI) is used to estimate migration at Council area and below. 3) International Passenger Survey (IPS) provides information on moves into and out of Scotland with an origin or destination of outside the UK. The use of these sources in producing internal (within UK) and international migration estimates is described below.

4.1.2 Internal migration

The NHSCR system records the movements of patients between NHS NHS Board areas in the UK. Counts of these re-registrations are used as a proxy indicator for moves within the UK. The CHI holds records of people registered with an NHS doctor in Scotland. Unlike the NHSCR, the records used by GROS contain the postcode of the patient's address, which enables migration to be estimated for Council Areas, and for smaller areas. Currently, GROS migration data derived from the NHSCR is considered to be the most reliable data available at NHS Board level, so estimates from the CHI are controlled to ensure that they are consistent with the NHSCR data for moves across a NHS Board boundary by origin, destination, age and sex. NHSCR data on patient movements is lagged to better reflect migration patterns. For moves from Scotland to England and Wales and from Scotland to Northern Ireland it is assumed that migrants take an average of 3 months to register with a new GP and so, for example, registrations in October and September are assumed to relate to moves between July and June and registrations between April and March are assumed to relate to moves between January and December. Previous to Quarter 3 2008 moves from England and Wales and Northern Ireland to Scotland were lagged by 3 months. These moves are now lagged by 2 months. Previous to Quarter 2 2009 data moves from Scotland to Northern Ireland were lagged by 6 months. These moves are now lagged by 3 months as it is thought that this more accurately reflects these moves.

4.1.3 International migration

An international migrant is defined by the United Nations (UN) as someone who changes their country of residence for 12 months or more. There is not a single, all- inclusive system in place to measure all movements of population into and out of the UK. Therefore, a combination of data from three different sources is used to compile the National Statistics estimates of international migration into Scotland: the International Passenger Survey (IPS), the Home Office and the Labour Force Survey.

The IPS is a continuous sample survey conducted at the principal international air, sea and Channel Tunnel routes in the United Kingdom and provides an estimate of international migrants into the United Kingdom. Given that the IPS collects information on intentions which may or may not be realised, an adjustment is made to the IPS data for visitor and migrant switchers - people who change their intentions and their migratory status. The adjusted IPS data is called Long Term International Migration (LTIM) (previously Total International Migration (TIM)) and is produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The allocation of Scotland’s share of international migrants to the UK is based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The LFS provides more reliable data on the actual geographical distribution of immigrants, rather than the intended destination provided by the IPS. The outflow of international migrants from Scotland is based directly on the IPS data.

The LTIM estimate for Scotland was used for the first time in the 2007 mid-year estimates for Scotland. The previous method was based on the IPS but did not use the LFS distribution or adjustments for migrant switchers. However, it did include an adjustment for unmeasured migration.

4.1.4 Distribution of international migrants within Scotland

International migration flows to NHS Boards were allocated using overseas inflows recorded on the NHSCR. However, NHSCR records hold limited data on outflows from NHS Boards to overseas as patients rarely de-register with their doctor when moving overseas. For the mid-2007 estimates international outflows were therefore allocated using averaged proportions based on international inflows, outflows to the rest of the UK and the population size of each NHS Board. This is an improvement on the previous method in which the limited NHSCR data on international outflows was used in combination with moves from Scotland to the rest of the UK.

Age and sex distributions of international in-migrants are obtained directly from the NHSCR. The age/sex distribution of moves for international out-migrants was based on the distribution of migrants to the rest of the UK, as recorded by the NHSCR.

Distribution of migrants to Council areas is based on the Community Health Index (CHI) records, controlled to the NHSCR geographic and age / sex distributions. International in-migrants were allocated using records on the CHI extract where the patient had arrived from overseas. International out-migrants were allocated using a combination of in-migrants to Scotland from overseas and migrants leaving Scotland for the rest of the UK.

4.2 Data from other sources

4.2.1 NHS registrations from overseas

The data shown in this report shows only those migrants from overseas who have registered with a GP. It does not contain any information on out migration. These data do not show the exact time of migration as there is a difference between arrival date and the date at which the change of GP is processed. In addition, this lag may not be consistent across the time series. For the purposes of producing the mid-year population estimates, the lag is assumed to be 2 months. There may also be month to month variations in the volume of records loaded onto the NHSCR system, so the

monthly variations observed in the data may not represent variations in the number of people registering with GPs.

4.2.2 Country of birth

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a quarterly sample survey of households living at private addresses in Great Britain. The LFS excludes most communal establishments and foreign students living in halls of residence, so the number of foreign born migrants is likely be under-reported. The quarterly data is published about 8 months after the time period to which it refers. Data on nationality is published in conjunction with the country of birth data. However, as an individual’s nationality can change, country of birth gives a more robust estimate of change over time.

4.2.3 Worker Registration Scheme

Individuals from the A8 countries (i.e. those that joined the EU in May 2004, excluding Cyprus and Malta) are required to register under the Worker Registration Scheme if they work as employees. Self employed migrants are not required to register. The data in his report is taken from the Home Office ‘Accession Monitoring Report’ series, however publication of this report has now ceased. Local Council level data is available from the Local Government Association (LGA) website12 to those with a .gov.uk email address. In addition to total numbers registered, this site also provides access to data including gender, age, industry, nationality and hourly rate. Other users may obtain Information on migrants applying to the WRS can be obtained by making a Freedom of Information request to the UK Border Agency13. The figures are not current: an individual who has registered to work and who leaves employment is not required to deregister, so some of those counted will have left the employment for which they registered and indeed some are likely to have left the UK. In addition the data relate to date of application, not date of entry to the UK.

4.2.4 National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) NINo data covers people allocated a NINo for all types of work – including the self-employed and students working part-time – and whatever the length of stay in the UK. It also covers overseas nationals allocated a NINo to claim benefits or tax credit. Children migrating to the UK are not captured by these data. The DWP NINo data does not show when overseas nationals subsequently depart the UK, nor show length of stay in the UK. The DWP figures are therefore a measure of inflow of overseas nationals registering for a NINo. It does not measure outflow or overall stock of overseas nationals in the UK. The date of registration shown in this data will be sometime after date of arrival. The lag between the two is often a year and sometimes longer.

4.2.5 Pupil Census

The Pupil Census covers all publicly funded schools in Scotland (local authority and grant-aided). The Census is conducted annually in September and the data is published the following February in ‘Results of Pupils in Scotland Census’ available on the Scottish Government website. Over 97.5 per cent of pupils disclosed their ethnic background but this includes a large number of pupils in the unknown category.

4.3 Migration data sources – strengths and limitations

4.3.1 GROS mid-year estimates

Strengths - Provides an estimate of all long-term migrants at Local Council level. Limitations - Estimates only produced annually, about 10 months after the period to which they refer.

4.3.2 Census

Strengths - Most comprehensive and detailed source of population and demography data. Limitations - Data collected only once every 10 years. Latest data available is for 2001.

4.3.3 NHS registrations from overseas

Strengths - Most comprehensive administrative data source available. The available data is reasonably current (although refer to limitation below regarding time lag to date of registration). Limitations - Captures short-term migrants (i.e. those staying for less than 12 months) and these can’t be distinguished from long-term migrants. Time lag between date of arrival and date of registration assumed to be 2 months on average but may vary between migrant groups. Excludes those who don’t register with a GP.

4.3.4 Labour Force Survey (country of birth)

Strengths - Provides more current information on migrant stocks (i.e. migrants currently living in Scotland) than Census. Limitations - Small sample size which limits confidence at local levels. Migrants living in communal establishments will be underestimated.

4.3.5 Worker Registration Scheme

Strengths - Provides local authority level data on nationality, gender and age of some migrants. Data is reasonably current. Limitations - Only covers a specific migrant group, i.e. those from A8 countries who become an employee. Only provides information on in-migration, no de- registration process. Location information relates to that of employer, not where the individual lives. Migrants may move to a different location after their first registration.

4.3.6 National Insurance Number allocations to foreign nationals

Strengths - Provides local authority level data on nationality of economically active migrants. Location information relates to residence of individual, not employer (further information can be found in Workers Registration Scheme (WRS)). Includes those receiving benefits as well as those working (employed and self-employed).

Limitations - Time lag between date of arrival and date of registration, often a year and sometimes longer. Excludes students and other groups that do not require a NI number (e.g. children of migrant workers).

4.3.7 Mothers’ country of birth

Strengths - Gives an indication of migrants choosing to settle in an area Limitations - Only gives information on a very specific group of migrants (i.e. mothers having children).

4.3.8 Pupil Census

Strengths - Data is reasonably current. Can provide an indication of where migrant families live, rather than work. Limitations Provides no information about migrants without children. No nationality data. Only includes children in publically funded schools. English as an additional language excludes migrants who come from English speaking countries.

Annex A - Further sources of data informing on migration

Central Government data

Electoral register (overseas registrations) Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) British Household Panel Survey (BHPS)

Other data

Council tax New housing developments Housing in multiple occupation Crime – Notifiable offences data from Home Office and British Crime Survey High pupil turnover Employment – proportion of low paid jobs Letting agents – migrants tend to obtain housing from private rented sector Citizens Advice Bureaus – report locally on issues raised by migrants Registration for bank accounts/ mobile phones Supermarkets – local changes in customer profile Farm Survey – use of migrant labour Gateway protection program – re-settlement of refugees to the UK Local library registrations

Annex B – Abbreviations used

APS – Annual Population Survey CHI – Community Health Index DWP – Department for Work and Pensions GROS – General Register Office for Scotland HESA – Higher Education Statistics Agency HMRC – Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs IMPS – Improvement to Migration and Population Statistics IPS – International Passenger Survey LFS – Labour Force Survey NHSCR – National Health Service Central Register NINo – National Insurance Number ONS – Office for National Statistics WRS – Worker Registration Scheme

Annex C – EU and EU accession countries

Pre – May 2004 EU member states (EU 15)

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.

Accession States

Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia A8 Lithuania May 2004 Accession Poland States Slovakia Slovenia Cyprus Other Malta Bulgaria January 2007 A2 Romania