Adapt Or Perish – Alice Hills
LBS Breakfast Session Adapt or Perish – Alice Hills It’s not just about sustainability but an economic necessity Presented by Bismarck Rewane CEO, Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. February 5th, 2020 January Snapshot Stock & Capital markets = Equity + debt The future of capitalism Policy and Politics Domestic Economic Performance & Outlook February Outlook New Decade, New Paradigm 3 4 Nigeria in the New Decade (2020-2030) Transition from bank based economy to market based economy 5,000.00 Improved sector diversity in the 4,657.58 4,500.00 4,391.91 bourse market 4,000.00 3,740.33 3,500.00 3,246.97 Sectors: banking, consumer 3,000.00 3,049.78 2,500.00 goods, industrial, oil & gas, 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,520.67 insurance, telecoms 1,365.30 1,000.00 1,067.70 793.72 762.04 500.00 Telecommunications sector - 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 accounts for 24% of total market T.Bill (bn) FGN Bonds (bn) capitalization Banking sector influence is a declining function of time 5 Nigeria in the New Decade (2020 – 2030) Nigeria must lift aggregate investment from $87bn (19.5% of GDP) to above $110bn in 2-3years Gross Fixed Investment ($'bn) 120 $110bn 100 80 98.2 80.2 87.4 60 59.6 40 55.3 20 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: EIU Using the mixed economic model 6 7 Points of Inflection You Cannot Ignore Higher inflation Lower interest rates Falling disposable income Stable naira Lower corporate revenues Falling external reserves Aggressive tax mobilization 7 Nigeria in the New Decade (2020 – 2030) The Imponderables Events Impact Border closure reversal Disruptive
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