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Financing Options Study SEASONAL OVERLAND ROAD FINANCING OPTIONS STUDY Slave Geological Province SC793259 Extracted from Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road Joint Venture Winter Road Orientation Presentation, 2011. Prepared for: Government of the Northwest Territories Corporate Services Department of Transportation Lahm Ridge Tower, 2nd Floor 4501 – 50 Avenue Yellowknife NT X1A 2L9 Prepared by: Deton’ Cho Stantec 5021 – 49th Street, PO Box 1680 Yellowknife NT X1A 2P3 Tel: 867-920-2216 Project No.: DCS 1492-00110 23 Oct 2012 – Final Report 23 Oct 2012 – Final Report Proposal No. DCS 1492- ii 00110 Seasonal Overland Road Financing Options Study Slave Geological Province SC793259 AUTHORSHIP Our team, consisting of Deton’ Cho Stantec (DCS) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), is pleased to offer the following response to the Request for Proposal for the Seasonal Overland Road (SOR) Financing Options Study for the Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT), Department of Transportation. This report follows the structure outlined in the DCS and PwC May 31, 2012 proposal to the (GNWT). The project team collectively provides the GNWT with local expertise, stakeholder community consultation, technical knowledge of facilities and infrastructure (including northern experience), financial skills and capability, and significant Public-Private Partnership (P3) experience and knowledge. Our response to the RFP takes into account the budget and time limitations of the assignment and the Scope of Work requirements. We have tailored our response to what we understand to be the desired outcome of the study. We believe our response achieves the GNWT’s objectives and expectations to move forward with the evaluation of the Seasonal Overland Road (SOR) project. Given the preliminary nature of the SOR project, this study in no way constitutes an opinion, attestation, or other form of assurance. Restriction and Limitations - PwC This Report is not intended for general circulation, nor is it to be published in whole or in part, without PwC’s prior written consent. We do not accept responsibility for any losses arising from unauthorized or improper use of this Report. PwC has relied upon the completeness, accuracy and fair presentation of all the information, data, advice, opinion or representations obtained from public sources and the Client (collectively, the “Information”). The findings in the Report are conditional upon such completeness, accuracy and fair presentation of the information. PwC reserves the right, at its discretion; to withdraw or make revisions to the Report should PwC be made aware of facts existing at the date of the report which were not known to PwC when it prepared the Report. The conclusions and recommendations are given as of the date hereof and PwC is under no obligation to advise any person of any change or matter brought to its attention after such date, which would affect the findings and conclusions and PwC reserves the right to change or withdraw the Report. i 23 Oct 2012 – Final Report Proposal No. DCS 1492-00110 Seasonal Overland Road Financing Options Study Slave Geological Province SC793259 REPORT PREPARED FOR: Jayleen Robertson, Director of Planning, Policy and Environment, Government of the Northwest Territories. Greg Cousineau, Senior Transportation Planner, Department of Transportation, Government of the Northwest Territories. ii 23 Oct 2012 – Final Report Proposal No. DCS 1492-00110 Seasonal Overland Road Financing Options Study Slave Geological Province SC793259 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT) is committed to finding ways to improve reliable road access to support existing mining operations, and promote exploration and development in the Slave Geologic Province (SGP). To this end, the GNWT has retained Deton’ Cho Stantec (DCS) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), to undertake a financing options study to examine the development of a 156 km Seasonal Overland Road (SOR) to replace the southern section of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR). Following the Introduction (section 1) of this report, section 2 provides an overview of the proposed SOR project as well as an introduction to Public-Private-Partnership (P3) procurement. The existing 500 to 600 km TCWR connects three (3) operating diamond mines: Snap Lake (DeBeers Canada Inc.), Diavik (Rio Tinto and Harry Winston Diamond Corp.), and EKATI (BHP Billiton Diamonds Inc.). The winter road traverses numerous water bodies and is highly vulnerable to climatic conditions. Its construction is an expensive undertaking every year in order to provide land access to the remote mining and exploration sites, which are otherwise accessible only by air. The proposed SOR would be less impacted by climatic influences. It would potentially increase the length of the driving season by approximately 30 days, and provide greater stability for land access to the mineral-rich region of the SGP. Section 3 of this report presents a top-down analytical assessment of market and economic conditions for the Northwest Territories (NWT), global mining and diamond industries, and individual mines in the SGP. Accounting for over a quarter of total economic output, the diamond mining industry is a significant economic driver in the Territory. While the NWT economy suffered from the effects of the recent global recession, a turnaround in the diamond mining and construction industries is expected to help grow the economy over the short-to-midterm. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the long-term outlook for NWT’s diamond mining industry. The largest mines, EKATI and Diavik account for nearly 90 percent of the current production capacity; however, these mines will end operations in 2019 and 2023, respectively. These two (2) mines accounted for over three-fourths of all winter road demand in 2011. Excluding the proposed Gahcho Kué mine (a joint venture between De Beers Canada and Mountain Province Diamonds), which will commence operations in 2017, there are no new projects that appear to significantly impact the winter road demand during their operations. While new developments, such as MMG Ltd.’s Izok Corridor project, may use the TCWR during their construction periods, these projects are in feasibility stages of development, and their future road demands are uncertain. Furthermore, expenditures related to exploration activities, (which serves as a leading indicator of future production potential) have yet to rebound back to pre-recession levels. As a result, the long-term future of mining activity in the area and therefore, the long-term future demand for the TCWR, appears limited. iii 23 Oct 2012 – Final Report Proposal No. DCS 1492-00110 Seasonal Overland Road Financing Options Study Slave Geological Province SC793259 The addition of the SOR would provide a number of benefits. It will extend the winter road driving season, provide greater transportation certainty and reliability to its users, allow for greater economic development opportunities (e.g. construction, northern tourism, etc.), and potentially facilitate exploration activities in the region. However, the current uncertainty of long-term future demand for the SOR may impact on the GNWT’s ability to recover revenues from users to offset its costs. In these circumstances the GNWT, as guarantor under a P3 arrangement, would effectively be required to subsidize the road over the life of the concession. As the GNWT is currently developing a Mineral Development Strategy and an Economic Development Strategy, section 4 of this report broadly assesses how the SOR’s project objectives and proposed outcomes align with the GNWT’s wider strategic policies. The SOR appears to have a reasonable alignment to the GNWT’s six (6) strategic goals. To complement the study’s analytical findings, section 5 summarizes key findings from the stakeholder consultation. Regulatory challenges in the region are highlighted. Because the SOR would enhance the area’s infrastructure, some stakeholders suggested that it would make many smaller projects more economically viable and extend the lives of the existing operations. Another stakeholder suggested that a comprehensive regional infrastructure plan should be developed ahead of investing in a road that primarily servers the mining industry. Section 6 of this report summarizes potential delivery methods for the project and the benefits and challenges of each delivery method. Potential delivery methods considered include a status quo option, design-bid-build, design-build and design-build-operate-finance and maintain (P3). Building upon the review of potential delivery methods, section 7 provides a high-level assessment of whether the proposed SOR would offer potential to be delivered using a P3 procurement model. Given the challenges and complexities of building and maintaining the proposed SOR, a P3 structure may offer significant benefits for the GNWT, while at the same time transferring some key risks to the private sector. This section includes a high-level P3 suitability screening checklist, which qualitatively assesses the SOR project against the desirable characteristics for a P3 project. The P3 potential of the proposed SOR project is rated as “Medium”. Section 8 of this report outlines some project specific risk issues that need to be addressed for the SOR project and that would represent a departure from the standard market accepted risk allocation between public and private sectors on completed P3 projects to date. Section 9 provides a very high-level indicative assessment
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