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Policy Brief #113 Related Brookings Resources the New National Security Strategy • Protecting the American Homeland and Preemption Michael E

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Policy Brief #113 Related Brookings Resources the New National Security Strategy • Protecting the American Homeland and Preemption Michael E The Brookings Institution POLICY BRIEF December 2002 Policy Brief #113 Related Brookings Resources The New National Security Strategy • Protecting the American Homeland and Preemption Michael E. O’Hanlon, Peter R. Orszag, Ivo H. MICHAEL E. O’HANLON, SUSAN E. RICE, JAMES B. STEINBERG Daalder, I.M. Destler, David L. Gunter, uilding on a concept he articulated in a June 2002 speech at Robert E. Litan, West Point, President George W. Bush has adopted a new James B. Steinberg (2002) Bemphasis on preemption in his administration’s National Security • “The Bush Administration’s Strategy (NSS), issued September 20, 2002. Preemption, defined as the National Security Strategy: An Evaluation” anticipatory use of force in the face of an imminent attack, has long been Policy Brief #109 accepted as legitimate and appropriate Ivo H. Daalder, James M. Lindsay, and under international law. In the new NSS, James B. Steinberg (October 2002) however, the administration is broadening • Defense Policy Choices for the meaning to encompass preventive war the Bush Administration, 2001-2005 as well, in which force may be used even Michael E. O’Hanlon without evidence of an imminent attack to (2002) ensure that a serious threat to the United •Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy President George W. Bush with States does not “gather” or grow over time. Paul R. Pillar National Security Advisor (2001) Condoleezza Rice, who has played The strategy also elevates preemption in • Preventive Defense: a central role in articulating the importance, and visibility, within the tool kit Bush administration’s stance on A New Security Strategy preemption. for America of U.S. foreign policy. Ashton B. Carter and This policy brief examines the implications of this policy shift as William J. Perry (1999) well as under what circumstances preemption, including the possibility • Brookings Project on Homeland Security of preventive action, might actually be applied. http://www.brookings. edu/fp/projects/ homeland/assess.htm The new shift in emphasis on preemptive the terrorists as well as those who harbor and preventive uses of force is a response them. It paved the way for a largely to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, successful military campaign in which brought home the necessity to Afghanistan and sent a clear warning to address potentially catastrophic threats other state sponsors of terrorism. The before the country can be attacked. The Brookings first manifestation of this more forceful The preemption concept was further attitude was the president’s seminal elaborated in the president’s West Point Institution Sept. 20, 2001, speech to a joint session speech and then more formally in the 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. of Congress vowing to hold responsible National Security Strategy. It threatens Washington, DC 20036 All Policy Briefs are available on the Brookings website at www.brookings.edu. POLICY BRIEF to attack so-called rogue states, which imacy. This can make it more difficult for pose a danger to the United States, the United States to gain international whether or not they are demonstrably support for its use of force, and over the linked to terrorist organizations of global long term, may lead others to resist U.S. reach. The administration argues that the foreign policy goals more broadly, continued spread of weapons of mass including efforts to fight terrorism. destruction (WMD) technology to states Elevating preemption to the level of a with a history of aggression creates an formal doctrine may also increase the unacceptable level of risk, and presents administration’s inclination to reach for “a compelling case for taking anticipatory the military lever quickly, when other actions to defend ourselves, even if uncer- tools still have a good chance of working. tainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy’s attack.” Advocating preemption warns potential enemies to hide the very assets we might Michael E. O’Hanlon However, a broad-based doctrine of wish to take preemptive action against, or is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy preemption carries serious risks. The to otherwise prepare responses and Studies at the Bush administration was right to take a defenses. In this tactical sense, talking too Brookings Institution. strong stand against terrorists and openly about preemption reduces its likely extremist states, but it had already accom- utility, if and when it is employed. Finally, plished this goal with its early words in advocating preemption may well the period after the September 11 attacks embolden other countries that would like and its actions in Afghanistan. It did not to justify attacks on their enemies as need a formal doctrine of preemption to preemptive in nature. drive the point home. Rather than enunciate a formal new doctrine, it would One can argue that a more explicit policy Susan E. Rice is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy have been better to continue to reserve of preemption actually reinforces deter- Studies and Governance the preemptive military tool for a narrow, rence by putting other countries on notice Studies at the Brookings Institution. rare class of situations where inaction about America’s seriousness of purpose in poses a credible risk of large scale, addressing threats such as the possession irreversible harm and where other policy of weapons of mass destruction by rogue tools offer a poor prospect of success. regimes. It also allows the administration Given that the doctrine has now been to argue that its focus on Iraq is part of a promulgated, the Bush administration broader security concept and does not should clarify and limit the conditions represent preoccupation with a specific under which it might be applied. regime. However, linking the real problem James B. Steinberg is vice of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction president and director of Foreign Policy Studies at Elevating the preemptive option to a (WMD) to a broader doctrine of the Brookings Institution. policy doctrine can have serious negative preemption (defined to include preventive consequences. For one, it reinforces the war) complicated the administration’s task image of the United States as too quick to in gaining international support for its use military force and to do so outside the preferred policy, and may do so again if bounds of international law and legit- the administration chooses to use force 2 Policy Brief #113 December 2002 POLICY BRIEF against Iraq. Many countries worry that the strategy, by a combination of the Bush administration will take a similar “radicalism and technology.” approach in dealing with other cases such “The National Security as North Korea or Iran or Syria. Further, The administration asserts that Strategy of the United other countries’ frustration with the deterrence of the kind that States of America” was United States’ decision to grant to itself, prevailed during the cold war is issued by President George (though not to others), a right of unlikely to work with respect to W. Bush on September 20, preemption may chill their willingness to rogue states and terrorists—which 2002. This Strategy, the cooperate fully with the United States in the administration claims are not first by the Bush adminis- the war on terrorism. risk-averse—and which view tration, is issued in accor- dance with the Goldwater- weapons of mass destruction not as Nichols Department of weapons of last resort but as THE STRATEGY’S CONCEPT Defense Reorganization Act weapons of choice. OF PREEMPTION of 1986, which mandated President Bush’s cover letter to the an annual report to September 2002 National Security In the Strategy, the administration Congress detailing the Strategy describes the most serious argues that the classic doctrine of National Security Strategy threats facing the United States and the preemption must be enlarged to deal of the United States. A copy means that will be used to address them. effectively with these new threats: of the Strategy is available Notably, he writes, “…as a matter of at www.whitehouse.gov/nsc. “For centuries, international law common sense and self-defense, America recognized that nations need not will act against [such] emerging threats suffer an attack before they can lawfully before they are fully formed.” take action to defend themselves against forces that present an imminent danger of attack. Legal scholars and international Although the Strategy also discusses jurists often conditioned the legitimacy of nonproliferation efforts, missile preemption on the existence of an defenses, and other protective measures imminent threat—most often a visible mobilization of armies, navies, and air for thwarting enemies of the United forces preparing to attack. States, it is clear from the cover letter and the text of the Strategy that “We must adapt the concept of imminent preemption is an important element of threat to the capabilities and objectives of today’s adversaries. Rogue states and the administration’s overall approach to terrorists do not seek to attack us using U.S. security in the post-September 11 conventional means…Instead, they rely on environment. The concept is not limited acts of terror and, potentially, the use of to the traditional definition of weapons of mass destruction—weapons that can easily be concealed, delivered preemption—striking an enemy as it covertly and used without warning. prepares an attack—but also includes prevention—striking an enemy even in “The United States has long maintained the absence of specific evidence of a the option of preemptive actions to counter a sufficient threat to our national coming attack. The idea principally security. The greater the threat, the greater appears to be directed at terrorist groups is the risk of inaction—and the more as well as extremist or “rogue” nation compelling the case for taking anticipatory states; the two are linked, according to action to defend ourselves, even if the Policy Brief #113 December 2002 3 POLICY BRIEF uncertainty remains as to the time and the Bush administration argues that place of the enemy’s attack.
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