Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks Under MGNREGA in Odisha
Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
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Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore July, 2017 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 2. METHODOLOGY ...... 2 2.1. Study Area ...... 2 2.2. Approach and Steps Adopted for Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis for Past 30-Years (1984 to 2014) ...... 2 2.3. Approach and Steps Adopted for Climate Change Projections – 2021-2050 ...... 2 2.3.1. CORDEX Models and RCP Scenario Used for Projections ...... 3 3. HISTORICAL CLIMATE: TRENDS AND EXTREMES...... 4 3.1. Maximum Temperature Trends during the Historical Period (1984-2014) ...... 4 3.2. Trends in Rainfall during the Historical Period (1984-2014) ...... 5 3.2.1. Mean Seasonal (JJAS) Rainfall during 1984-2014 ...... 5 3.2.2. Monsoon Rainfall Variability during 1984-2014 ...... 6 3.2.3. Trends in Sowing Rains (June rainfall) during 1984-2014 ...... 7 3.2.4. Occurrence of Droughts: Frequency and Intensity during 1984-2014 ...... 8 3.2.5. Number of high intensity Rainy Days During the Historical Period (1984-2014) ...... 8 4. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR 2021-2050 ...... 11 4.1. Temperature Projections for 2021-2050 ...... 11 4.1.1. Trends in Maximum Temperature During 2021-2050 (by 2035) Compared to the Historical Period of 1984-2014 ...... 11 4.2. Rainfall Projections for the Period 2021-2050 (2035) ...... 12 4.2.1. Changes in Mean Monsoon (JJAS) Rainfall During 2021-2050 Compared to the Historical Period 1984-2014 ...... 12 4.2.2. Change in Frequency and Intensity of high intensity Rainfall During the Projected Period (2021-2050) Over the Historical Period (1984-2014) ...... 13 5. RAINFALL VARIABILITY CHANGES UNDER PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 16 6. HOTSPOTS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ...... 18 7. CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT UNDER MGNREGA ...... 19 7.1. Main Conclusions ...... 19 7.2. Implications for Developing Climate Resilient Infrastructure under MGNREGA ...... 20 7.2.1. Implications for ICRG ...... 21 7.2.2. Designing Climate Resilient MGNREGA Infrastructure ...... 22 7.2.3. Suggested options for ICRG ...... 22 REFERENCES ...... 23 APPENDIX ...... 24
i Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme List of Tables Table 2.1: Steps and Approach to Historical Climate Trend Analysis ...... 2 Table 2.2: List of CORDEX Models used in this Study for Climate Change Projections ...... 3 Table 3.1: June to September Rainfall, Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation for the ICRG Blocks in Odisha during 1984-2014...... 5 Table 3.2: Criteria for Analysis of Drought ...... 8 Table 3.3: Frequency of Occurrence of Rainfall events of 51-100 mm and > 100 mm (units are in days) along with highest Rainfall received in the ICRG Blocks of Odisha ...... 9 Table 4.1: Number of Rainy Days (> 2.5 mm/day) during the Historical Period and Projected Climate Change ...... 14 Table 5.1: Current and Future Climate Variability based on Coefficient of Variation in Rainfall ...... 16 Table 6.1: Hotspots of Current and Future Climate Variability based on CV in Rainfall ...... 18
List of Figures Figure 3.1: Change in Mean Maximum Temperature (OC) during the 30-year Period of 1984-2014 in the Identified ICRG Blocks of Odisha ...... 4 Figure 3.2: Mean Maximum Temperature and Highest Temperature Recorded during the Historical Period (1984-2014) in the ICRG Blocks of Odisha ...... 5 Figure 3.3: Number of Blocks Receiving Normal sowing Rains during June under three Frequencies of 1-5 years, 5-10 years and >10 years during the 30-year Period of 1984-2014...... 7 Figure 3.4: Drought Occurrence Frequency in Study Blocks of Odisha during 1984-2014 ...... 8 Figure 4.1: Change in temperature (C) by 2035 (2021-2050) relative to the historical 1984-2014 period in the ICRG blocks of Odisha...... 11 Figure 4.2: Mean JJAS Rainfall (mm) during Historical and Projected Period ...... 12 Figure 4.3: Percentage Change in mean JJAS Rainfall during the Projected Period (2021-2050) Compared to the Historical Period of 1984-2014 ...... 13 Figure 4.4: Change in Frequency of Occurrence of Rainfall events of 51-100 mm/day and > 100 mm/day in the Projected Scenario (2021-2050) Relative to the Historical Period (1984-2014) ...... 15
ii Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges facing humanity. Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG), is projected to impact natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. According to IPCC (2014), climate change is already occurring and impacting natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems such as food production. India, is already experiencing a significant level of warming and changes in the rainfall pattern accompanied by increasing rainfall variability. The agriculture sector and farming communities are already experiencing higher levels of climate variability and extreme events (e.g., droughts and floods). The Paris Agreement aims at “Enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change”. Further, the Agreement highlights “The current need for adaptation is significant”, and “The need for assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability” and “Building resilience of socio-economic and ecological systems”. India’s INDC also aims “To better adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development programmes in sectors vulnerable to climate change, particularly agriculture and water resources”. The vulnerability of developing countries to potential impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation is thus rapidly emerging as the central issue in the debate around policy responses to climate change. There is also a need for combining disaster reduction, natural resource management and climate change adaptation in a new approach to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to climate risks. Given the inherent costs involved, adaptation should be pursued not as an end but as a means to meet the development objectives. India has been implementing a large number of developmental programmes and projects as part of national economic development goals largely with domestic funding, which may have to be climate proofed. One such major developmental programme is the MGNREGA. Climate change projections for India indicate that different parts of India will experience different levels of warming as well as changes in rainfall pattern. A good understanding of the historical climate trends, current climate variability and climate change projections is very critical for identifying the most vulnerable regions, cropping systems, communities, etc., and to prioritize and implement adaptation / resilience measures. This study aims at assessing the trends in observed climate, current climate variability and make climate change projections for the selected 35 blocks under the ICRG programme in the state of Odisha. The specific objectives of the study are: i. Based on the IMD historical climate data, conduct climate trend analysis for monsoon seasonal rainfall, temperature changes and droughts at block level; ii. Conduct current climate variability analysis and a trend analysis of monsoon season rainfall at block level; iii. Make climate change projections at block level for 2030s (2020 to 2050); maximum and minimum temperature, monsoon seasonal rainfall, monthly rainfall and droughts; iv. Rank and prioritize the 35 ICRG blocks in Odisha to identify the “Hotspots” of current climate variability and future climate change according to: Current monsoon season rainfall variability; Projected monsoon season rainfall and its variability.
1 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. Study Area The study conducted in Odisha state covers 35 blocks, identified under the DFID Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme. 2.2. Approach and Steps Adopted for Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis for Past 30- Years (1984 to 2014) The procedure adopted for historical climate analysis is presented in Table 2.1. Daily gridded rainfall dataset of 0.25° latitude x 0.25° longitude provided by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the India region for the 30-year period of 1984– 2014, for precipitation (Pai et al. 2014), and 1.0°x1.0° latitude and longitude gridded daily temperature data, spanning over 30 years (1984-2014) for maximum and minimum temperature (Rajeevan et al. 2006), has been used to calculate the variability and trend in precipitation and temperature respectively. Rainfall variability is assessed only for the critical southwest monsoon (rainy) season and temperature is assessed only for the summer season for heat stress. For assessing the temperature variability block-wise data was obtained by re- gridding the temperature dataset to 0.2°x0.2°, and re-aggregating by the districts to study the maximum and minimum temperature variability at block level.
Table 2.1: Steps and Approach to Historical Climate Trend Analysis
STEP 1 Selection of blocks Blocks identified under the DFID – ICRG programme STEP 2 Access the IMD Mean monthly temperature, max-min temperature, and historical data for the daily rainfall past 30 years at block (Source: IMD, Pune (http://imd.gov.in/)) level Grid resolution: 1° x 1°(temp) and 0.25° x 0.25 (rainfall) STEP 3 Conduct analysis of Trends in Mean Monthly Max and Min temperature trends in climate Trends in Monsoon Season rainfall parameters at block Monsoon rainfall variability level Trends in occurrence of high intensity rainfall events Trends in frequency of droughts
2.3. Approach and Steps Adopted for Climate Change Projections – 2021-2050 The CORDEX South Asia modeled data on precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature have been analyzed for 35 blocks. The details of data used for historical/observed and climate change analysis for 35 blocks in Odisha is given in Table 2.2. The CORDEX South Asia model data on precipitation and maximum temperature have been analysed for the 35 blocks for the mid-century period (2021-2050). Climate change projections on precipitation and maximum temperature been assessed for the ICRG blocks. Projections have been made at a grid-spacing of 0.5°x0.5° resolution (50 km x 50 km) for the RCP 8.5 scenario. IPCC has provided multiple pathways of future GHG emissions and radiative forcings. The pathways are used for climate modelling and research. The recent IPCC Assessment Report (2014) used four possible climate futures. The four RCPs - RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre- industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively) (Weyant et al., 2009).
2 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme CORDEX is a WCRP-sponsored program to organize an international coordinated framework to produce an improved generation of regional climate change projections world-wide for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline. CORDEX produced an ensemble of multiple dynamical and statistical downscaling models considering multiple forcing GCMs from the CMIP5 archive. Initially 50 km grid spacing has been selected. For the present study only the SMHI-RCA4 model data which was available is used. 2.3.1. CORDEX Models and RCP Scenario Used for Projections The CORDEX South Asia data on precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature have been analysed for 35 blocks for baseline (1984-2014) and mid-century (2021-2050) RCP 8.5 scenario for RCM SMHI-RCA4 and the ensemble of the RCMs are taken for this study. List of CORDEX models used and their details are given Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: List of CORDEX Models used in this Study for Climate Change Projections
GCM boundary Resolution Daily time Asia CORDEX RCM RCM Institute Scenario condition (o lon x o lat) period CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM- SMHI- CNRM SMHI RCP8.5 0.5X0.5 1951- CM5_SMHI-RCA4 RCA4 2100 NOAA-GFDL-GFDL- SMHI- GFDL SMHI RCP8.5 0.5X0.5 1951- ESM2M_SMHI-RCA4 RCA4 2100 IPSL-CM5A-MR_SMHI- SMHI- IPSL-CM5A SMHI RCP8.5 0.5X0.5 1951- RCA4 RCA4 2100 MIROC-MIROC5_SMHI- SMHI- MIRCO SMHI RCP8.5 0.5X0.5 1951- RCA4 RCA4 2100 MPI-M-MPI-ESM- SMHI- MPI-M SMHI RCP8.5 0.5X0.5 1951- LR_SMHI-RCA4 RCA4 2100
Source: CORDEX South Asia, IITM Pune (RCP 8.5) RCM - SMHI-RCA4 (Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model V.4, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) Daily data for the study blocks have been used for rainfall intensity analysis. Climate change projections on precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature have been assessed. Grid-resolution for the climate projection is 0.5°x0.5°. The ensemble mean of 5 RCM models for precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature data has been analyzed for RCP 8.5 scenario, which is more likely.
3
Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme Climate in a narrow sense is defined as average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period ranging from months to hundreds of years. The relevant climate parameters include temperature, rainfall and wind. Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state of temperature, monthly or seasonal rainfall, etc. and other statistics such as standard deviations, statistics of extremes, etc. of the climate on a temporal and spatial scale, beyond that of individual weather events. 3. HISTORICAL CLIMATE: TRENDS AND EXTREMES In this section, the historical trends in temperature and rainfall across the ICRG blocks of Odisha state for the 30-year period of 1984-2014 is presented. 3.1. Maximum Temperature Trends during the Historical Period (1984-2014) Analysis of the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) temperature data shows that in Odisha, the mean summer maximum temperature for selected ICRG blocks varied from 35.6 OC to 38 OC and the mean summer minimum temperature varied from 20.9 OC -22 OC. Trends in maximum temperature during the historical period was analysed and the results of this analysis is presented (Figure 3.1) in this section.
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B e K Figure 3.1: Change in Mean Maximum Temperature (OC) during the 30-year Period of 1984-2014 in the Identified ICRG Blocks of Odisha Average maximum temperature during the initial 10-year period of 1984-1994 and that during the recent 10-year period of 2004-2014 was compared to compute the change in temperature over the 30-year historical period (Figure 3.1). During the historical period of 1984-2014, all the identified ICRG blocks in Odisha recorded an increase in maximum temperature. The temperature increase was in the range of 0.22 OC in Nuapada to 0.78 OC in Banspal block. The increase in temperature in the range of 0.5 OC to 0.75 OC was recorded in the highest number of blocks (more than 50%). The increase in temperature in the range 0.26 to 0.5 OC was experienced in 13 of 35 of blocks. An increase of > 0.75 OC was recorded only in one block of Odisha – 0.78 OC in Banspal.
4 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme The maximum temperature recorded on a single day during the period ranged from 41 to 45 0C (Figure 3.2). Further, ten blocks recorded 45 OC. The difference between mean maximum and highest recoded was generally in the range of 4 to 5 OC for most blocks.
Figure 3.2: Mean Maximum Temperature and Highest Temperature Recorded during the Historical Period (1984-2014) in the ICRG Blocks of Odisha Overall there was an increasing trend in warming as indicated by the increase in mean maximum temperature across all the identified ICRG blocks in Odisha (Figure 3.1). Further, most blocks experienced maximum temperature close to 45 OC. 3.2. Trends in Rainfall during the Historical Period (1984-2014) Total rainfall and the distribution of monsoon rainfall is critical for agriculture and water supply in rural areas. The rainfall trend is analysed for the monsoon period – JJAS (June to August), which is the most important cropping season in the states. The mean seasonal rainfall trend and the seasonal rainfall variability is analysed and presented in this section for the period 1984 to 2014, for the selected blocks under ICRG program. 3.2.1. Mean Seasonal (JJAS) Rainfall during 1984-2014 Mean seasonal rainfall during June to September is analysed and presented in this section for the historical 30-year period of 1984-2014 (Table 3.1).
Kusmi block received the highest rainfall (1357 mm), followed by Karanjia block (1326 mm) during 1984-2014.
Most of the blocks recorded a rainfall between 1100 mm to 1300 mm during the monsoon season.
Jhumpra block received the least monsoon rainfall of 1057 mm, followed by Boden (1064 mm), Komna (1076 mm), Kendujhar Sadar (1088 cm) and Sinapali (1089 mm) blocks.
Table 3.1: June to September Rainfall, Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation for the ICRG Blocks in Odisha during 1984-2014
Mean JJAS rainfall Standard deviation Coefficient of Variation Blocks (mm) (mm) (%) Bhawanipatna 1176 420 35.69 Kharirar 1197 396 33.04 Sinapali 1089 357 32.80
5 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
Mean JJAS rainfall Standard deviation Coefficient of Variation Blocks (mm) (mm) (%) Titlagarh 1229 400 32.57 Narla 1176 373 31.72 Kesinga 1230 381 31.01 Saintala 1212 373 30.78 Golumunda 1192 359 30.11 Lanjigarh 1189 338 28.43 Nuapada 1134 306 26.98 Samakhunta 1211 326 26.92 Boden 1064 285 26.82 Komna 1076 271 25.19 Bangiriposi 1242 311 25.05 Jamda 1242 311 25.05 Gudvella 1290 323 25.04 Kusmi 1357 325 23.93 Karanjia 1326 316 23.83 Karlamunda 1236 292 23.63 Kendujhar Sadar 1088 250 22.94 Saharpada 1180 264 22.35 Ghatagaon 1183 263 22.23 Khunta 1193 263 22.06 Jashipur 1219 264 21.66 Jhumpra 1057 228 21.54 Deogaon 1213 258 21.28 Bisoi 1142 240 21.02 Sukruli 1188 249 20.95 Kaptipada 1227 256 20.86 Bijatola 1110 230 20.76 Banspal 1208 246 20.33 Telkoi 1162 232 19.97 Udala 1238 243 19.60 Thakurmunda 1246 232 18.62 Patna 1133 207 18.22 3.2.2. Monsoon Rainfall Variability during 1984-2014 One of the major challenges faced by Indian agriculture is the monsoon rainfall variability. According to several studies, the monsoon rainfall variability has been increasing in the recent decades. Rainfall variability creates uncertainty and significantly impacts water availability and crop production. Rainfall variability is an important indicator which can be used to target resilience enhancement programmes. In this section, the rainfall variability is estimated at the block level based on data for the 30- year historical period of 1984-2014. The coefficient of variation (CV) is taken as an indicator of the rainfall variability (Table 3.1). The CV of the monsoon rainfall varies from 18.2% to 35.7% in ICRG blocks of Odisha.
6 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
Eight of the 35 blocks had CV higher than 30%: Bhawanipatna (35.7%); Kharirar (33%), Sinapali (32.8%), Titagarh (32.6%(, Naria (31.7%) and Kesinga (31%). Patna block showed the least CV with 18.2%, indicating low rainfall variability. Standard deviation of monsoon rainfall varied from 207 (Patna) to 420 (Bhawanipatna). The top 5 blocks with highest CV are Bhawanipatna, Kharirar, Sinapali, Titlagarh and Narla. Thus, these 5 blocks could be considered as hotspots of current rainfall variability, requiring MGNREGA activities aimed at increasing irrigation water availability. The rainfall variability was generally moderate in majority of the blocks, with less than 25%. 3.2.3. Trends in Sowing Rains (June rainfall) during 1984-2014 June is the month of onset of monsoon in most parts of India. June rainfall is critical for crop production. The decision of farmers in deciding cropping pattern depends on the extent of rainfall received in June. Here we analyse the trends in rainfall during the month of June over the 30-year period. Appendix 1 presents the number of years with onset of normal sowing rain across the ICRG blocks of Odisha. Figure 3.3 presents the number of blocks receiving normal sowing rain under three frequencies of 1-5 years, 6-10 years and >10 years during the 30-year period of 1984-2014. Seven ICRG blocks of Odisha received normal sowing rains in the range of 11 to 13 years during the historical 30-year period of 1984-2014. In 20 of the 35 blocks, the normal sowing rain was received in 6 to 10 years. About 8 blocks received normal sowing rains in only one to five out of 30 years. They include Bhawanipatna, Sinapali, Golumunda, Kharirar, Saharpada and Titlagarh blocks. Analysis of occurrence of sowing rainfall events during June for the historical 30-year period showed that majority of the blocks did not receive adequate sowing June rainfall in most of the years. This means only in a few years the farmers received normal sowing rain in June. This will have implications for designing MGNREGA works to assist farmers to cope with delayed sowing rains. The famers may require access to rainfall prediction in June and MGNREGA may have to have provision for contingency planning in case of delayed sowing rains.
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Figure 3.3: Number of Blocks Receiving Normal sowing Rains during June under three Frequencies of 1-5 years, 5-10 years and >10 years during the 30-year Period of 1984-2014
7 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
3.2.4. Occurrence of Droughts: Frequency and Intensity during 1984-2014 Drought is the bane of Indian agriculture. Periodic occurrence of droughts adversely impacts food production, water availability, farmers’ livelihoods and survival. India is likely to experience increased frequency and intensity in occurrence of droughts in the coming decades due to climate change. The historical climate data has been analysed for occurrence of droughts during the 30-year period of 1984 to 2014. The criteria for this analysis is presented in Table 3.2. Figure 3.4 presents the occurrence of mild, moderate and severe drought in the study blocks of Odisha.
Table 3.2: Criteria for Analysis of Drought
Drought type Rainfall deficit from normal Mild Drought 0-25% Moderate Drought 26-50% Severe Drought 50-75% Extreme drought >75% Source: Lala et al., 2013 Sinapali and Bhawanipatna were the only two blocks to experience extreme drought over the historical 30-year period. More than one-third of the blocks experienced severe drought during the historical 30- year period, ranging from one to six years (Lanjigarh block). All, except four blocks experienced moderate drought events during the historical 30- year period in one to seven out of 30 years. All the blocks recorded more than 5 mild drought years during 1984-2014. The maximum number of mild drought years (17 of 30 years) was experienced by Bisoi block.
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No. of years with mild drought No. of years with moderate drought No. of years with severe drought No. of years with extreme drought
Figure 3.4: Drought Occurrence Frequency in Study Blocks of Odisha during 1984-2014 Thus, in Odisha, occurrence of mild drought is very common. Moderate and severe droughts have also been recorded during the historical period. However, extreme drought is a rare event. 3.2.5. Number of high intensity Rainy Days During the Historical Period (1984-2014) In this section, an analysis of frequency of occurrence of high intensity rainfall events of intensity 51-100 mm and > 100 mm per day is presented for the historical period of 1984-
8 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 2014 for the identified ICRG blocks of Odisha. Table 3.3 presents the frequency of occurrence of rainfall events with intensity of 51-100 mm to > 100 m per day. Number of rainy days - 51 – 100 mm/day rainfall About 80% of the blocks received 51-100 mm of rainfall for > 100 days (or >3 days/year) during 1984-2014 Ghatagaon block received 268 days of rain of 50-100 mm intensity Only seven of the 35 blocks received rainfall of this intensity for < 100 days (83 to 93 days) Number of rainy days - > 100 mm/day rainfall > 100 mm rainfall was received by the ICRG blocks in Odisha for 13 (Jhumpra block) to 62 (Nuapada block) days. Majority of the blocks received > 100 mm of rainfall for 21-48 days. Highest rainfall event in a day Heavy rainfall events occurring in a day varied from 148 mm in Nuapada and Samakuntha blocks to 352 mm in Gudvella block. Majority of the blocks received 200 mm to 300 mm rainfall/day events. The second highest rainfall event ranged from 137 mm in Nuapada and Samakuntha blocks to 301 mm in Kendujhar Sadar block. Table 3.3: Frequency of Occurrence of Rainfall Events of 51-100 mm and > 100 mm (Units are in Days) along with Highest Rainfall received in the ICRG Blocks of Odisha
Number of days receiving Highest rainfall (mm) 2nd highest rainfall (mm) Blocks rainfall in the range of received in a day received in a day 51-100 mm > 100 mm Nuapada 188 62 148 137 Komna 131 48 163 148 Thakurmunda 166 46 163 145 Titlagarh 139 46 166 155 Kaptipada 166 45 223 195 Udala 117 43 182 164 Kharirar 108 42 217 213 Karlamunda 86 41 246 226 Bhawanipatna 114 40 249 208 Golumunda 118 40 211 186 Karanjia 111 40 236 233 Lanjigarh 173 40 210 143 Samakhunta 149 40 148 137 Deogaon 127 36 259 220 Kesinga 112 35 251 202 Narla 93 35 228 198 Saharpada 114 34 265 245 Kusmi 138 33 178 154 Saintala 121 33 278 230 Sinapali 111 32 336 280
9 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
Number of days receiving Highest rainfall (mm) 2nd highest rainfall (mm) Blocks rainfall in the range of received in a day received in a day 51-100 mm > 100 mm Bangiriposi 108 30 309 281 Gudvella 103 30 352 270 Jamda 108 30 332 267 Sukruli 108 30 289 270 Boden 93 28 230 227 Patna 103 27 178 175 Khunta 109 26 214 209 Ghatagaon 268 22 218 188 Kendujhar Sadar 83 22 330 301 Banspal 91 21 232 168 Bijatola 87 18 229 192 Bisoi 131 15 229 199 Jashipur 131 15 229 199 Telkoi 156 14 293 202 Jhumpra 84 13 275 226
Occurrence of high intensity rainfall is an indicator of flood causing rainfall events. More than 100 mm of rain/day could lead to damage to land, crops and may cause excessive runoff and even flood. These high intensity rainfall events could damage the soil and water conservation structures created under MGNREGA. It can be observed that most blocks received 1 to 2 high intensity rainfall of > 100 mm events per year. This information will have implications for designing soil and water conservation structures and flood control measures under MGNREGA.
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Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 4. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR 2021-2050 All blocks and districts will be subjected to warming and climate change, in particular changes in total rainfall and rainfall variability to varying degrees. Climate change is also projected to impact the frequency and intensity of occurrence of droughts. Thus it is necessary to assess the projected impacts of climate change at block level, especially the impact on rainfall variability and intensity. This would enable identification of hotspot blocks with respect to monsoon seasonal rainfall variability, so that adaptation or resilience programs can be targeted first. 4.1. Temperature Projections for 2021-2050 Temperature projections have been estimated for the summer months of March to May for the 30-year period of 2021-2050. 4.1.1. Trends in Maximum Temperature During 2021-2050 (by 2035) Compared to the Historical Period of 1984-2014 Increase in temperature due to greenhouse warming can impact crop yields directly, increase evapo-transpiration demand and moisture stress, ultimately contributing to increased water demand and irrigation needs for agriculture. This will have implications for MGNREGA works related to water management. Further, under extreme cases high temperatures can lead to heat strokes, harming humans. In this section changes in maximum temperature during 2021-2050 over the historical period of 1984-2014 is analysed and presented for the identified ICRG blocks in Odisha (Figure 4.1). All the identified ICRG blocks in Odisha are projected to show increased levels of warming as compared to the historical period (1984-2014).
Majority of the blocks are reported to experience a warming of 0.6 C to 0.9 C. The projected increase in temperature is highest in Bhawanipatna and Kesinga blocks (1.4 C), followed by Sinapalli and Nuapada blocks with an increase in temperature of 1.3 C, and an increase of more than 1 C in 7 more blocks. Least warming or increase in maximum temperature is projected for Karlamunda and Jamda blocks (0.1 C).
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Figure 4.1: Change in temperature (C) by 2035 (2021-2050) relative to the historical 1984-2014 period in the ICRG blocks of Odisha
11 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 4.2. Rainfall Projections for the Period 2021-2050 (2035) In this section, assessment of rainfall projections for the period 2021-2050, with respect to number of rainy days and in comparison to the historical period (1984-2014) are presented. Any reduction in the number of rainy days, accompanied by either increase in total rainfall or no significant change in rainfall indicates the occurrence of flood events. Number of rainy days and rainfall intensity are also critical for designing water storage structures under MGNREGA. 4.2.1. Changes in Mean Monsoon (JJAS) Rainfall During 2021-2050 Compared to the Historical Period 1984-2014 The mean monsoon (June to September-JJAS) rainfall for the two periods – historical (1984- 2014) and projected (2021-2050) is compared in this section to understand the changes in rainfall during the critical agricultural season. Figure 4.2 presents JJAS rainfall during historical and projected periods in the blocks of Odisha. The projections show both increasing (in 18 blocks) and decreasing (in 17 blocks) trends in JJAS rainfall. Blocks with decreasing rainfall trend 17 blocks (49%) are projected to experience a decline in rainfall in the range of 2 mm (Ghatagaon) to 461 mm (Deogaon) during the monsoon season (JJAS). Further, 7 blocks are projected to experience a decline of > 100 mm and four blocks 200 (Banspal) to 461 mm (Deogaon). 7 blocks are projected to experience > 10% decline in monsoon rainfall and further, two blocks are projected to experience > 50% decline in rainfall (Figure 4.3). Blocks with increasing rainfall trend 18 out of 35 blocks are projected to receive increased rainfall in the range of 60 mm (Telkoi block) to 473 mm (Udala block) during the monsoon season. Further, the increase in rainfall ranges from 5% to 28% (Figure 4.3). Most of the blocks (50%) are projected to experience an increase in rainfall of 10% to 25% during the projected period, relative to the historical period.
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Figure 4.2: Mean JJAS Rainfall (mm) during Historical and Projected Period
12 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
Figure 4.3: Percentage Change in mean JJAS Rainfall during the Projected Period (2021-2050) Compared to the Historical Period of 1984-2014 It is clear from this analysis that most blocks are likely to experience changes in total monsoon season rainfall during the projected period. Nearly half of the blocks are projected to experience a decline in rainfall while the remaining half of the blocks is projected to receive increased rainfall. Many blocks are projected to experience more than 10% increase or decrease in rainfall. Thus, climate change is projected to have a significant impact on the rainfall pattern in the blocks of Odisha even during the short-term period of 2035. This will have significant implications for designing land and water related structures under MGNREGA. Such data will help in decisions on whether to plan for coping with decreased or increased rainfall in the blocks. Further, this information will help in designing land-water structures under MGNREGA according to changes in rainfall projected for the blocks. 4.2.2. Change in Frequency and Intensity of high intensity Rainfall During the Projected Period (2021-2050) Over the Historical Period (1984-2014) The total number of rainy days of (> 2.5 mm) received during the historical period and the projected number of rainy days under climate change scenario are given in Table 4.1. Total number of rainy days (>2.5 mm) during historical period (Table 4.1) The total number of rainy days in the historical period ranged from 62 days/year in Lanjigarh block to 105 days/year in Karanjia block. Further, 75% of the blocks received more than 60 days of rainfall/year. Total number of rainy days (> 2.5 mm) during the projected period (Table 4.1) Monsoon season rainfall increased significantly under climate change scenario, and ranged from 74 days/year (Bisoi block) to 122 days/year in Kendujhar Sadar block. 32 of the 35 blocks (91%) are projected to receive rainfall of > 2.5 mm/day on 90 days/year. Highest number of rainy days (122 days) per year is projected for 6 blocks under climate change scenario compared to only one block receiving rain of >2.5 mm on 105 days/year.
13 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme Thus, it could be concluded that there is a significant increase in the number of rainy days. Further, number of blocks receiving rainfall (>2.5 mm) over 90 days/year increases from eight blocks during the historical period to 32 blocks during the projected climate scenario.
Table 4.1: Number of Rainy Days (> 2.5 mm/day) during the Historical Period and Projected Climate Change
Historical (1984-2014) Projected (2021-2050) Total number Average Total number Average % change in Blocks of rainy days number of of rainy days number of number in (>2.5mm / rainy days / (>2.5mm / rainy days / days day) year day) year Karanjia 3153 105 2917 97 -8.1 Bisoi 2114 70 2230 74 5.2 Ghatagaon 2343 78 2493 83 6 Deogaon 2912 97 3101 103 6.1 Titlagarh 2491 83 2687 90 7.3 Karlamunda 2683 89 2953 98 9.1 Saintala 2263 75 2500 83 9.5 Gudvella 2623 87 2917 97 10.1 Khunta 2665 89 3043 101 12.4 Banspal 2944 98 3461 115 14.9 Jamda 2963 99 3591 120 17.5 Sukruli 2936 98 3591 120 18.2 Bijatola 2614 87 3211 107 18.6 Kendujhar Sadar 2899 97 3657 122 20.7 Bangiriposi 2846 95 3591 120 20.7 Sinapali 2265 76 2984 99 24.1 Patna 2653 88 3528 118 24.8 Telkoi 2230 74 2967 99 24.8 Jhumpra 2717 91 3657 122 25.7 Kusmi 2646 88 3592 120 26.3 Kharirar 2180 73 2984 99 26.9 Golumunda 2280 76 3150 105 27.6 Samakhunta 2491 83 3448 115 27.8 Thakurmunda 2185 73 3074 102 28.9 Jashipur 2066 69 2929 98 29.5 Saharpada 2542 85 3651 122 30.4 Udala 2539 85 3654 122 30.5 Narla 2410 80 3504 117 31.2 Kesinga 2364 79 3504 117 32.5 Boden 2005 67 2984 99 32.8 Kaptipada 2185 73 3651 122 40.2 Komna 1943 65 3369 112 42.3 Bhawanipatna 2105 70 3656 122 42.4 Nuapada 1856 62 3394 113 45.3 Lanjigarh 1851 62 3476 116 46.7
14 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme A comparison of the frequency of occurrence (number of days) of rainfall of different intensities between the historical period (1984-2014) and the projection for the period 2021-2050 indicates that the trends are varied across blocks. Blocks of Odisha are projected to have an increase as well decrease in the number of rainfall events of 50-100 mm and > 100 mm rainfall (Figure 4.4). Number of rainy days - 51 – 100 mm rainfall/day The frequency of occurrence of rainfall events of 51-100 mm is projected to decrease in 20 of the 35 blocks. The decrease in frequency of occurrence of rainfall events of this intensity is projected to be in the range of 2 days (Karanjia block) to 189 days (Ghatagaon). The decrease is largely in the range of 20 to 60 days. Increase in frequency of rainfall of 51-100 mm/day is projected for the remaining 15 blocks out of 35 in Odisha. Number of rainy days - > 100 mm rainfall/day In 63% of the blocks in Odisha, a decrease in > 100 mm rainfall is projected with a decrease in number of rainy days being 2 to 51 days. Maximum decrease in the frequency of occurrence of > 100 mm rainfall is projected for Nuapada block. In about 8 blocks, an increase in occurrence of high intensity rainfall events of > 100 mm is projected and this increase is in the range of one to 28 days, relative to the historical period. Highest increase is projected for Jhumpra block.
Figure 4.4: Change in Frequency of Occurrence of Rainfall events of 51-100 mm/day and > 100 mm/day in the Projected Scenario (2021-2050) Relative to the Historical Period (1984-2014)
15 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 5. RAINFALL VARIABILITY CHANGES UNDER PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE In this section, the changes in rainfall variability due to projected climate change is compared with the historical rainfall variability by estimating Coefficient of Variation (CV). Table 5.1 provides a comparison of changes in rainfall variability (CV) due to climate change compared to the historical rainfall variability.
Table 5.1: Current and Future Climate Variability based on Coefficient of Variation in Rainfall
Blocks CV-Historical (1984-2014) CV-Projected (2021-2050) Bangiriposi 25.0 21.8 Banspal 20.3 26.5 Bhawanipatna 35.7 33.4 Bijatola 20.8 24.4 Bisoi 21.0 54.8 Boden 26.8 29.9 Deogaon 21.3 29.4 Ghatagaon 22.2 48.0 Golumunda 30.1 26.9 Gudvella 25.0 31.5 Jamda 25.0 21.8 Jashipur 21.7 40.4 Jhumpra 21.5 29.1 Kaptipada 20.9 45.3 Karanjia 23.8 18.7 Karlamunda 23.6 31.5 Kendujhar Sadar 22.9 29.1 Kesinga 31.0 29.1 Kharirar 33.0 29.9 Khunta 22.1 34.2 Komna 25.2 31.1 Kusmi 23.9 36.3 Lanjigarh 28.4 25.3 Narla 31.7 29.1 Nuapada 27.0 32.8 Patna 18.2 27.7 Saharpada 22.4 18.7 Saintala 30.8 33.2 Samakhunta 26.9 34.4 Sinapali 32.8 29.9 Sukruli 21.0 21.8 Telkoi 20.0 27.9 Thakurmunda 18.6 47.2 Titlagarh 32.6 33.2 Udala 19.6 26.4
16 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
24 of the 35 blocks are projected to experience increasing rainfall variability. Further, 6 blocks are projected to experience doubling of the rainfall variability (CV) under climate change scenario. Rainfall variability increased by over 20% in four of the 35 blocks. The remaining 11 blocks are projected to experience a decrease in rainfall variability during the projected period. Comparison of projected rainfall variability (2021-2050) with the historical 30-year variability (1984-2014) shows an increase in rainfall variability under climate change for most of the blocks. Thus, this is a significant impact of climate change on monsoon rainfall variability. This will have implications for agriculture, water availability and design of MGNREGA structures.
17 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 6. HOTSPOTS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY It is possible to rank the various identified ICRG blocks based on variability in monsoon rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture. The top ranked blocks with high rainfall variability (Coefficient of Variation) could be prioritized for designing climate resilient land and water related structures under MGNREGA. Table 6.1 lists the top five blocks with highest CV under current climate (1984-2014) as well as under the projected climate change scenario for the period – 2021-2050. CV under current climate CV ranges from 32% in Narla block to 36% in Bhawanipatna block under the current climate. All five blocks are in a narrow range of 32 to 36%. CV under projected climate. The CV under the projected climate ranges from 40% in Jashipur block to 55% in Bisoi block. Kaptipada, Thakurmunda and Ghatagaon are other blocks among the top five with CV of 45% to 48%. In all the five blocks, rainfall CV has more than doubled under the climate change scenario, relative to the historical period.
Table 6.1: Hotspots of Current and Future Climate Variability based on CV in Rainfall
Top 5 blocks with highest CV under current Top 5 blocks with highest CV under projected climate (1984-2014) scenario (2021-2050) Blocks CV Blocks CV Bhawanipatna 36 Bisoi 55 (21) Kharirar 33 Ghatagaon 48 (22) Sinapali 33 Thakurmunda 47 (19) Titlagarh 33 Kaptipada 45 (12) Narla 32 Jashipur 40 (22)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the historical rainfall variability It can be observed that the top five hotspot blocks for current monsoon season rainfall variability are different from the top five hotspot blocks under projected rainfall variability under climate change Thus, it will be a challenge to decide whether to select the hotspot blocks of historical rainfall variability or hotspot blocks with high rainfall variability under climate change.
18 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme 7. CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT UNDER MGNREGA In this study, historical rainfall analysis was carried out for the identified ICRG blocks in Odisha for the period 1984-2014. Similarly, climate change projections were carried out using the latest climate models for the same blocks for the period 2021-2050. The main goal was to assess the trends in historical and projected climate for the identified ICRG blocks and to identify the hotspot blocks of rainfall variability. 7.1. Main Conclusions Some of the key highlights of this assessment are presented below: i. Most blocks experienced a warming of 0.5 to 0.75 0C. Further, most blocks experienced close to 45 0C during the historical period. ii. Rainfall variability differs across blocks within a Odisha state. iii. Current rainfall variability is moderate to high. Number of blocks with > 25% Coefficient of Variation in Odisha is recorded in 16 blocks out of 35. Further, eight blocks experienced more than 30% of rainfall CV. iv. Majority of the blocks in Odisha experienced mild drought and a few blocks experienced moderate drought. Thus, severe drought does not seem to be a common event in the identified blocks of Odisha. v. The main implication of temperature and rainfall trend and variability shows that there is a large variation from block to block even within a state. Thus, block level detailed historical analysis of climate trends, especially rainfall trends is critical and necessary to: Inform block and district level engineers and technical staff involved in designing MGNREGA structures and assets, such as check dams, farm ponds, and minor irrigation works. Assist them in preparing coping strategies for mild and moderate droughts. Assist in contingency planning in the event of delay or failure of June or early sowing rains. Inform all the stakeholders about rainfall and temperature trends, frequency of potential extreme rainfall events or droughts. vi. Climate change projections show that all the blocks are projected to experience warming even by 2030s. The projected warming levels are moderate in Odisha (most blocks by 0.6 to 0.9 0C. vii. Multiple CORDEX model ensemble projections of monsoon season rainfall showed the following: Climate change is projected to have significant impact on total monsoon rainfall with majority of the blocks projected to experience either increase or decline.
Nearly half the blocks are projected to experience increased rainfall while the other half a decline.
19 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
In Odisha, 11 blocks are projected to experience an increase in mean rainfall of 10-25%, while 10 blocks are projected to experience reduction in rainfall by <10%. Thus, it is necessary to use block level projections in designing MGNREGA structures, rather than the district or state level trends. High intensity rainfalls days (> 100 mm/day) are projected to increase in Odisha with some blocks likely to receive less than one day of high intensity rainfall per year. Rainfall variability has increased for most blocks and a few blocks are projected to experience doubling of the coefficient of variation of monsoon rainfall. viii. A significant increase in the number of rainy days is projected for all the blocks under climate change scenario. The number of blocks receiving > 2.5 mm rainfall over 90 days/year increases to 32 blocks during the projected climate scenario, compared to only eight blocks in the historical period. ix. Comparison of projected rainfall variability (2021-2050) with the historical 30-year variability (1984-2014) shows an increase in rainfall variability under climate change for most of the blocks. Four blocks in Odisha are projected to experience more than doubling of the rainfall variability. Thus, climate change is projected to have significant adverse impact on monsoon rainfall variability. 7.2. Implications for Developing Climate Resilient Infrastructure under MGNREGA MGNREGA works are largely related to natural resources such as water resources and land (grazing land, forests and crop management). Majority of the MGNREGA works are related to land and water conservation and management. The new “Mission Water Conservation” guidelines focus on integrated natural resource management approach. The mission calls for a paradigm shift from promoting “relief measures” to integrated natural resource management approach in implementing MGNREGA. This calls for adoption of climate resilient infrastructure approach to natural resource management under MGNREGA. Under MGNREGA, 100 works out of 153 works relate to NRM, and further, 71 relate to water. Some of the NRM related activities which require climate resilience infrastructure are given below: Check Dam, Earthern Dam, Farm Pond, Feeder Channel, Mini Percolation tank, Stop Dam, Sub Surface Dam, Sunken Pond, Underground Dyke, Boulder Check, Water absorption Trench, Box Trenches, Continuous Contour Trench, Contour Bunds, Earthen Bunding, Earthen Gully Plug, Staggered Trench, Dugwell, Farm Pond Construction of canal, Distributory and Minor, Lift Irrigation, Community Well for Irrigation, Desilting, Renovation, Strengthening of Embankment, Belt Vegetation, Afforestation, Eco Restoration of Forest, Forest Protection, Grass Land Development and Silvipasture, Nursery Raising, Plantation in Government Premises, Plantation, Earthen Bunding, Land Development, Development of waste land, Land Levelling, reclamation of Land, Recharge pits, etc. A study conducted by Indian Institute of Science in four states (Esteves et al., 2013) has shown that MGNREGA works related to water and land development have contributed to generation of environmental benefits and natural resource conservation - ground water
20 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
recharge, increased water availability for irrigation, increased soil fertility, reduction in soil erosion, and improved tree cover. These environmental benefits derived from MGNREGA works have in turn contributed to reducing the agricultural and livelihood vulnerability, thus helping to cope with current climate risks and potentially build long-term resilience to projected climate change. Thus, a large poverty alleviation programme such as the MGNREGA is demonstrated to have the potential to deliver resilience or adaptation benefits to current vulnerability. The MGNREGA is the largest rural development programme implemented in India with a large investment in works related to soil and water conservation, land development, and afforestation, all of which address the causes of degradation of natural resources. Such works lead to the creation of durable assets. MGNREGA works have led to enhanced productivity and regeneration of the natural resource base, further strengthening its potential for generating resilience benefits. In addition, soil conservation, fodder development, afforestation, and drought proofing works have sequestered carbon, thus mitigating climate change (Esteves et al., 2013). Potential could exist to further enhance resilience to long-term climate change, through packaging of MGNREGA as a programme to build long-term resilience to future climate change, in addition to reducing vulnerability to current climate risks. In this context, the “Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth (ICRG) – a technical assistance programme supported by Department for International Development (DFID) seeks to facilitate more effective investment in rural infrastructure under MGNREGA to support rural economic growth and improve the climate resilience of vulnerable communities. This is envisaged through improving the quality of the physical assets under MGNREGA in the selected 35 blocks of Odisha. These blocks are among the 2,500 blocks that the Government of India has chosen for focussed implementation of MGNREGA works. The identified hotspots of rainfall variability could be the priority blocks wherein planning, designing and implementation of MGNREGA works take into consideration the current climate variability and long-term climate change risks. 7.2.1. Implications for ICRG In India, programmes such as MGNREGA rarely use historical rainfall trends, rainfall intensity, flood or drought occurrence information and data in designing the water storage, transport, land management, etc., structures at the village level. Some of the potential reasons for not utilising the historical rainfall information are as follows: i. Historical rainfall distribution or intensity data for a given village or even block may not exist, due to limited number of rain gauge stations in a district.. Thus, to start with, the basic climate data is not available at the scale it is required for designing MGNREGA structures. The staff of the Rural Development Department or the Zilla Parishad are faced with the limitation of lack of rainfall data. ii. In some cases, even if historical climate data are available at IMD or IITM at district or block level, the data may not be accessible to the staff of Rural Development Department or Zilla Parishad, who design the structures under MGNREGA. iii. Even if data is accessible, a rarity, the staff at the district or block level may not have computing facility or technical capacity to analyse large volumes of daily data for 20 or 30 years.
21 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme
Thus, currently it is a challenge to design the land and water related structures based on historical climate or rainfall variables at village or panchayat level, even under the current climate scenario. However, under the ICRG project, historical climate data could be provided to the identified hotspot blocks, along with training of junior engineers and technical staff. 7.2.2. Designing Climate Resilient MGNREGA Infrastructure The challenges in using current and historical climate data in designing MGNREGA land- water structures were presented in previous section. In this section the challenges and options in utilising the climate change projections data are presented. i. Climate change projections are at a scale of 50 km X 50 km, which is the finest scale available from CORDEX. This scale will limit the application of projected climate variables at village or Panchayat level for designing the MGNREGA structures. ii. GCM and CORDEX projections are for a 30-year period of 2021-2050 and the projected changes occur on decadal scale, which is inadequate for planning the small-scale structures under MGNREGA for immediate implementation. iii. Lack of simple manuals and toolkits for utilizing historical and climate change projections in designing land-water structures or assets at village, block or even district level under MGNREGA. iv. Lack of technical capacity in utilizing the data on climate variables in designing the land- water structures, even if climate projections are made available. v. Lack of computer skills and computing facilities at the panchayat, block and even at district level, to use climate data for designing structures. 7.2.3. Suggested options for ICRG Climate change is already happening and is projected to occur at a faster rate in the coming decades. Rainfall variability and intensity is projected to increase. Thus, it is important to conduct pilot projects and build capacity in ensuring climate resilient infrastructure designs are developed and implemented. Some suggested options are as follows: i. Develop simple toolkits and manuals for utilizing historical and climate change projections in designing land-water related structures at a decentralized scale under MGNREGA. ii. Select pilot hotspot blocks based on historical rainfall variability and projected climate change rainfall variability. iii. Prepare data packages of historical climate trends and climate change projections for the pilot hotspot blocks, to assist in designing climate resilient structures. iv. Conduct training programmes to all technical staff at block and district level in utilising historical and climate change projections data in designing MGNREGA structures. v. Organize and provide technical back up support to the technical staff of the pilot blocks under the MGNREGA programme. vi. Monitor, evaluate and learn lessons for large-scale dissemination of climate resilient planning of MGNREGA works.
22 Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme REFERENCES 1. Pai D.S., Latha Sridhar, Rajeevan M., Sreejith O.P., Satbhai N.S. and Mukhopadhyay B., 2014: Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° X 0.25°) Long period (1901-2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region; MAUSAM, 65, 1(January 2014), pp1-18. 2. A K Srivastava, M Rajeevan and S R Kshirsagar. Development of a High Resolution Daily Gridded Temperature Data Set (1969-2005) for the Indian Region 3. Lala I.P. Ray, P.K. Bora, A.K. Singh, Ram Singh, N.J. Singh and S.M. Feroze (2013). Meteorological drought occurrences at Shillong, Meghalaya, Keanean Journal of Science, Vol. 2, 31-36. 4. John Weyant, Christian Azar, Mikiko Kainuma, Jiang Kejun, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, P.R. Shukla, Emilio La Rovere and Gary Yohe (2009). Report of 2.6 Versus 2.9 Watts/m2 RCPP Evaluation Panel (PDF). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat. 5. Collins, M., et al.: Section 12.3.1.3 The New Concentration Driven RCP Scenarios, and their Extensions, in: Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, pp. 1045–1047. 6. Tashina Esteves, Patil Vishal, Sharma Nitasha, Shashanka Rao, Murthy I K and N H Ravindranath, 2013. Agricultural and Livelihood Vulnerability Reduction through the MGNREGA, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 48, Issue No. 52, 28 Dec, 2013.
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Current Climate Variability Assessment, Climate Change Projections and Identification of “Climate Hotspot Blocks” for ICRG Blocks under MGNREGA in Odisha Infrastructure for Climate Resilient Growth in India (ICRG) Programme APPENDIX Appendix 1: Number of years with normal sowing rains during the historical 30-year period (1985- 2014)
Blocks No. of years Bhawanipatna 3 Sinapali 3 Golumunda 4 Kharirar 4 Saharpada 4 Titlagarh 4 Karanjia 5 Narla 5 Boden 6 Kesinga 6 Kusmi 6 Nuapada 6 Sukruli 6 Lanjigarh 7 Patna 7 Jhumpra 8 Kendujhar Sadar 8 Komna 8 Saintala 8 Bijatola 9 Ghatagaon 9 Karlamunda 9 Udala 9 Bangiriposi 10 Banspal 10 Gudvella 10 Jamda 10 Thakurmunda 10 Jashipur 11 Kaptipada 11 Bisoi 12 Khunta 12 Samakhunta 12 Deogaon 13 Telkoi 13
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