Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Mortality Projections for Chicago
Journal of Great Lakes Research 36 (2010) 65–73 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Great Lakes Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jglr Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago Katharine Hayhoe a,b,⁎, Scott Sheridan c, Laurence Kalkstein d, Scott Greene e a Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, PO Box 41053 Lubbock, TX 79490, USA b ATMOS Research & Consulting, PO Box 16578, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA c Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242, USA d Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA e Department of Geography, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA article info abstract Article history: Over the coming century, climate change is projected to increase both mean and extreme temperatures as Received 29 January 2009 heat waves become more frequent, intense, and long-lived. The city of Chicago has already experienced a Accepted 21 August 2009 number of severe heat waves, with a 1995 event estimated to be responsible for nearly 800 deaths. Here, future projections under SRES higher (A1FI) and lower (B1) emission scenarios are used to estimate the Communicated by Marlene Evans frequency of 1995-like heat wave events in terms of both meteorological characteristics and impacts on heat-related mortality. Before end of century, 1995-like heat waves could occur every other year on average Index words: Climate change under lower emissions and as frequently as three times per year under higher. Annual average mortality Extreme heat rates are projected to equal those of 1995 under lower emissions and reach twice 1995 levels under higher.
[Show full text]