Marking the 20Th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall Responsible Leadership in a Globalized World

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The fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, not only years, there have been differences in opinion on important led to the unifi cation of Germany, thus ending decades of issues, but the shared interests continue to predominate. division and immeasurable human suffering; it also ended It is important that, in the future, we do not forget what binds the division of Europe and changed the world. us together and that we defi ne our common interests and responsibilities. The deepening of personal relations between Today, twenty years after this event, we are in a position to young Germans and Americans in particular should be dear gauge which distance we have covered since. We are able to to our hearts. observe that in spite of continuing problems and justifi ed as well as unjustifi ed complaints, the unifi cation of Germany and For this reason the BMW Foundation accounts the Europe has been crowned with success. transatlantic relationship as a focus of its activity. The Transatlantic Forum for example is the “veteran“ of the It is being emphasized again and again, and rightly so, that it BMW Foundation’s Young Leaders Forums. The aim of was the people in the former GDR that started the peaceful these Young Leaders Forums is to establish a network, revolution. The Kohl/Genscher government recognized – beyond the Forums discussions, between young leaders and seized – the opportunity for unifi cation. But without the from various countries. Responsible Leadership in a support of the United States of America and our European Globalized World the BMW Foundation, with its goals and neighbors, the process would have failed. The United States projects, also encourages leaders worldwide to take into has not only been a guarantor of our security during the post- account the greater common good in their professional and war decades, it has also been the most important ally on the personal activities. road to German unifi cation. Jürgen Chrobog, State Secretary (ret.) During my six years as German Ambassador in Washington, Former German Ambassador to the United States I also sensed that Germany’s role vis-à-vis the United Chairman of the Board of Directors, States has changed. The special relationship has developed BMW Stiftung Herbert Quandt into something more like a partnership, which is also characterized by national interests. Particularly in recent Further Information: www.bmw-stiftung.de Contents

Foreword: Barack Obama A message from the President of the United States > PAGE 7

The Triumph of Freedom Helmut Kohl recalls how the world changed in 1989 > PAGE 8

Commemorating the Fall of the Wall George H.W. Bush looks forward to a “new world of hope” > PAGE 10

Challenging the Status Quo Margaret Thatcher reflects on the demise of communism > PAGE 13 Interview: Hans-Dietrich Genscher Interview: Zbigniew Brzezinski A Valued Partnership Hans-Dietrich Genscher talks about Zbigniew Brzezinski looks back at > Ellen Johnson Sirleaf says the battle the 10-point plan and European the key players and events PAGE 50 > for freedom is far from over > PAGE 15 monetary unification PAGE 34 Germany’s Revolution, Unification Lessons Learned The Night the Wall Went Up and America Václav Havel warns of the perils of Frederick Kempe chronicles the J. D. Bindenagel’s account of the > > totalitarianism > PAGE 16 events of August 1961 PAGE 36 events of November 9 PAGE 54

Editor’s Introduction The Wall... Always the Wall Interview: Colin Powell Frederick Kempe on the Atlantic Frederick Forsyth’s Cold War Berlin Colin Powell looks back at Ronald > Community’s role in ensuring freedom PAGE 40 Reagan’s role in shaping the events of persists > PAGE 18 1989 > PAGE 58 A Diplomatic Approach Dawn of a New Era Douglas Hurd explains how the fall of Welcome to Freedom Peter Schneider reflects on political the Wall reshaped the map of Europe Frederick Taylor recalls the events opposition to reunification > PAGE 20 > PAGE 44 that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall > PAGE 62 Poland’s Path to NATO A New Era of Globalization Adam Michnik looks at the Josef Ackermann on how the events Interview: Horst M. Teltschik revolutions that led to the fall of of 1989 forever changed the face of Horst M. Teltschik on the complexities communism > PAGE 24 international affairs > PAGE 47 of reunification > PAGE 66

Interview: Brent Scowcroft “Tear Down This Wall!” A New Set of Challenges Brent Scowcroft recalls how George Richard Burt remembers Ronald David Marsh outlines Germany’s H.W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev Reagan’s rousing speech in Berlin geopolitical challenges > PAGE 70 changed the world > PAGE 28 > PAGE 48

The Atlantic Council 3 The Power of Information A Shared Vision Michael Dobbs explores the power John R. Lyman and Mihaela Carstei of the media as a midwife of revolution explain why trans-Atlantic energy > PAGE 75 cooperation is crucial > PAGE 108

Reflections on the A Dangerous Future “Annus Mirabilis” Charles F. Wald, Sherri Goodman, Michael Dobbs on the passing of and David M. Catarious, Jr. explain an era > PAGE 78 the importance of climate change and energy security > PAGE 110 Insight: Beyond Containment – How the Cold War was Won Completing Europe Condoleezza Rice recalls her Damon Wilson looks at the strategies experiences, as part of the Bush needed to achieve a whole, free and administration, of the events of 1989 peaceful Europe > PAGE 114 > PAGE 82 Insight: Bonfire of the Certainties Freedom’s Triumph George Robertson looks back at the Klaus Naumann reflects on four period that saw a transformation in decades of political and military the role and mission of NATO containment > PAGE 86 > PAGE 118

Trans-Atlanticism Renewed: Europe in the World of 2025 The Path to Force Effectiveness Mathew J. Burrows believes there is Thomas Enders says it is essential an ever more dramatic period ahead that NATO forges a strong trans- > PAGE 120 Atlantic Alliance > PAGE 88 Stratcon 2010: Sharing Cultural Values A Military Route to Freedom? Michael Naumann considers the Julian Lindley-French explains how trans-Atlantic exchange of ideas the Alliance is re-focusing its political > PAGE 92 and military purpose > PAGE 122

A Warning From the Spy World NATO’s Strategic Concept for the Tennent H. Bagley exposes the secret 21st Century warfare still being waged > PAGE 94 Hans Binnendijk looks at how NATO must grow and evolve > PAGE 124 Interview: James L. Jones James L. Jones reveals the threats that The Threat to NATO’s Future > keep him awake at night PAGE 98 Kori Schake on why changes are needed to the way the Alliance operates Global Threat Analysis > PAGE 128 Barry McCaffrey assesses the dangers that face us today > PAGE 104

4 The Atlantic Council Getting Smart Jamie Shea asks what smart power means to the Atlantic Alliance > PAGE 130

Insight: NATO – A Bridge Across Time James G. Stavridis explains how NATO is constantly adapting in order to maintain security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region > PAGE 134

A Sponsor of Good Governance Chris Donnelly asks how NATO can help countries achieve better statecraft and governance > PAGE 136

Breaking Down the Barriers Shuja Nawaz believes political friendships in the 21st century can be ambiguous > PAGE 140

A New Frontier In Democracy Assistance David L. Phillips on how to promote democracy going forward > PAGE 144

Unexpected Consequences Moisés Naím looks at the surprising effects the end of the Soviet Union has had on Europe > PAGE 146

Contacts > PAGE 148

Advertiser index > PAGE 149

Insight: The Limits of Force – The U.S. in the 21st Century Senator Chuck Hagel on the importance of global collaboration > PAGE 150

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"MMJBO[PG"NFSJDB *OD /PWBUP $""MMSJHIUTSFTFSWFE am honored to join all those Eastern Europe are firmly anchored in recognizing the 60th year of the the Euro-Atlantic institutions of NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. Our countries (NATO). The Atlantic Council’s are bound together by our shared Freedom’s Challenge: NATO at commitment to human dignity and I60 – Commemorating 20 Years of the Fall freedom, and by the security pledges that of the Berlin Wall provides us with an lie at the core of the Atlantic Alliance. opportunity to reflect upon the events that The lessons of 1989 are clear: transpired 20 years ago, when the people democracy will ultimately triumph over of Central and Eastern Europe freed authoritarianism, and ordinary people themselves from tyranny and oppression. can be powerful agents for change. I The year 1989 was pivotal in the 20th congratulate the leaders and citizens century and in world history. Poland who inspired and participated in the held a historic parliamentary election revolutions of 1989. We honor their that ended communist rule. Hungary courage and continue to draw strength boldly cut the barbed wire fence from their example as we, in concert with separating it from Austria, drawing back our allies and partners, advance the causes the Iron Curtain. Germans from both of justice and liberty around the world. sides of the Berlin Wall breached the On this occasion, America reaffirms its barrier that divided them and began enduring commitment to our shared vision the process of reuniting their country. of a peaceful Europe, whole and free. And, with the Velvet Revolution in the then-Czechoslovakia, Central and Eastern Europeans chose freedom over oppression, liberty over captivity, and hope over despair. I am proud of the role the United States played in 1989 and in the years BARACK OBAMA that followed. Today, Central and PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

The Atlantic Council 7 The Triumph of Freedom By former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl

009 is a special year for it was final confirmation of Chancellor anniversaries. We celebrate the Adenauer’s policy of aligning the Federal 20th anniversary of the fall of Republic to the West under the proviso the Berlin Wall on November 9, of ultimate reunification, a goal we 1989. Inextricably linked to this, resolutely pursued over the years. When 2we also celebrate the 60th anniversary of reunification came into reach in 1989/90, the founding of the Federal Republic of it was abundantly clear to me, as it had Germany on May 23, 1949, and of NATO been to Konrad Adenauer in the early on April 4, 1949. years of our young democracy, that a The Berlin Wall had not only torn reunited Germany had to be a member of families apart for 28 years, but had in NATO. Reunification with the price tag of fact also divided a city and a country into Germany leaving NATO would not have two parts. The Wall was also the very been possible with me. Our partners and symbol of the Cold War. It stood for the neighbors were well aware of this. division of the world into a “free” and For us, the crucial allies on this an “unfree” part. The Wall eventually journey were the Americans and fell absolutely peacefully, without a President George Bush. My friend George shot being fired, without blood being Bush was a godsend for us Germans and for me, personally. We trusted each other and shared the same fundamental belief in freedom. Although quite different The Wall eventually fell on the German question, the situation regarding trust was very similar with Mikhail Gorbachev. absolutely peacefully Well aware of the steadfastness of the West, which was particularly evident in NATO’s Double-Track Decision, Gorbachev set the course for the opening shed. It was like a miracle. The peaceful of the Eastern bloc with glasnost and protests of the people in the German perestroika and followed a peaceful route, Democratic Republic (GDR) had been displaying great courage throughout the building up for months and eventually whole process. became unstoppable. The GDR state in The years 1989/90 changed the world. which injustice had prevailed collapsed We should never forget that everything in 1989/90, not least due to the people’s could have turned out very differently. hunger for freedom. That is why the 20th anniversary of the After the fall of the Wall, less than fall of the Wall is above all a day of great a year passed before we achieved the joy and thanksgiving for the free world reunification of Germany, in peace and from which we can draw motivation and freedom, with God’s help and with the commitment for the future. approval of our partners and allies in the world. On October 3, 1990, we celebrated Helmut Kohl was Chancellor of West the Day of German Unity. It was the Germany from 1982 to 1990, and of triumph of freedom. At the same time, reunified Germany from 1990 to 1998.

8 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 9 Commemorating the Fall of the Wall By former U.S. President George H.W. Bush

am delighted to join the Atlantic working toward a world without the Wall. Council in commemorating the The international scene has changed 60th anniversary of NATO and the enormously in the last two decades, in 20th anniversary of the fall of the large measure because there is no more Berlin Wall. superpower confrontation. That is the IThe fall of the Wall was first and enduring historical legacy of the fall of the foremost a testament to the spirit of the Wall: it set in motion those events that German people. As I said in 1990, the would lead to the reunification of Germany fall of that “stark and searing symbol of less than one year later – a day that marks, conflict and cold war” was “proof that in my mind, the day the Cold War ended. no wall is ever strong enough to strangle The events of 1989 began a new era in the the human spirit, that no wall can ever history of Germany, Europe, the Atlantic crush a nation’s soul.” It was also a Alliance, and indeed, the entire world. To historic moment for the United States and be sure, new challenges and responsibilities the entire Atlantic Alliance, which had have emerged. But from my vantage point remained steadfast for more than 40 years – as someone who lived through 45 years in support of a free Germany, resolutely of East-West conflict – this remains, as I

10 The Atlantic Council A united Germany has taken its place as a force for peace and stability in world affairs said at the time of German reuniﬁcation, “a new world of hope.” It is a world that is all the more hopeful because over the last two decades, a united Germany has taken its place as a force for peace and stability in world affairs, NATO has renewed its purpose, and the members of the Atlantic Alliance have become even more vital partners in leadership. As we celebrate this year’s historic anniversaries and look forward to a shared future of hope and promise, may God continue to bless the people of Germany and the entire trans-Atlantic Community.

George H.W. Bush was U.S. President from 1989 to 1993.

The Atlantic Council 11 Challenging the Status Quo

By former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher

s the world celebrates 20 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall it is right that we should reﬂect on the impact of those momentous months. AIn the two decades which have passed, there has been a tendency to diminish the importance of the Cold War. We have since learned how fragile the economic, political and military structures in the Soviet Union really were. But it would be wrong to lose sight of the dangers which mankind faced during the era of Mutually Assured Destruction. Nor must we downplay the bravery of those who resisted oppression. No ideology has been responsible for more deaths than communism and it required tremendous moral and physical courage to defy its deadly grip. By the late 1970s it had almost come to be accepted that the world was locked into an unbreakable armed stand-off. But with the coming of Ronald Reagan to the White House, all that was to be transformed. President Reagan was not prepared to accept the status quo. He believed that the West could win both the battle of ideas and the battle of resources, and with the support of other leaders, he was determined to loosen communism’s hold. And by the mid-1980s, as the effects of his determined stance began to expose the frailty of Soviet power, communism itself found someone from within who was prepared to doubt its orthodoxy and to promote change: Mikhail Gorbachev. Twenty years on, the world has changed, mostly for the better. Millions of people who once struggled under the oppression of communism live freer, more prosperous and happier lives. We have not created utopia: but then only communism thought that mankind could. There are still hardships. There are still dangers. But it is a world where more people are taking more decisions about their own lives than ever in our history. And that is something for us all to celebrate.

Baroness Margaret Thatcher was British Prime Minister from 1979 to 1990.

The Atlantic Council 13

A Valued Partnership

By Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of the Republic of Liberia

e recall two decades ago In particular, I honor Secretary the shouts that went Clinton’s passionate commitment to forth in celebration women and their fight for equality when the Berlin Wall and liberty. We will continue to work came down. The burst together to ensure that girls have access ofW energy was intense and the German to education – and market women to people’s feeling of exhilaration infectious economic opportunities. I profoundly as images flashed across television share Secretary Clinton’s views that rape screens around the world of a shattered can never be a tool of war, that those barrier separating a people yearning for who commit such crimes be brought to freedom and unity. justice, and that the women who suffer Many still burdened under the yoke be given care and comfort. We know that of dictatorship and tyranny shared women helped rebuild Berlin after World vicariously the invigorating air of War II. We know that all across Africa liberation being savored by the German women are rebuilding communities torn people. For decades the Berlin Wall stood apart by conflict. These women deserve as an impregnable fortress against the our support as among the 21st century’s “This battle is forces of free expression, free choice and fighters for freedom. free association. An artificial fortress President Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke cannot endure forever against the tide in 1941 of the imperative of the four far from over” of freedom and the collective will of a freedoms, which we all know: freedom determined people. of speech and expression, freedom of I congratulate the determined German religion, freedom from want, and freedom Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy and people for all that they have fought for from fear. I am proud to have been a Ronald Reagan – the policy of promoting and all that they have achieved in building recipient of an award by the Roosevelt democracy abroad, was relevant in its a unified country with institutions that Institute for strong advocacy for freedom contemporary context, but no longer protect and nurture your democracy and of speech. These very freedoms are as retains a place in the 21st century. But I your liberty. precious to us today as then. Alas, many am here as living proof to tell you that if My colleague Chancellor Angela proud and hard working people across the U.S. were to lose its will and go quiet Merkel, whom I also call friend and sister, Africa are not able to speak or worship on issues of liberty and human rights, addressed the American Congress recently. freely. They go to sleep hungry or sick, that this would shake the foundations of She and the German people, too, know well and live in fear for their lives or the democracy around world. of the powerful support from the United lives of their children. We continue our I know that all of you know that this States and from the American people commitment to bring these freedoms battle is far from over. But Liberia is throughout the dark days of the Cold War. to our people. Liberians, young and old, proud to be part of the trans-Atlantic I congratulate as well the American share the government’s commitments to community, which honors those sacrifices people for all that they have done to work, to be honest, to unite, to reconcile by freedom-loving peoples all over the support freedom throughout the world, and to rebuild. One important challenge world. The people of Liberia – and the for all that they have done to support those for us is to create the institutions that people of Africa – know that it is in fighting for freedom, and for all that they will stand the test of time – as Germany partnership with friends and allies who continue to do in the pursuit of freedom. has done – institutions that will be share these important values that we Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the hallmark of democracy for my will continue to work until all of our whom I also call friend and sister, deserves grandchildren’s grandchildren. children enjoy the blessings of peace and recognition for her lifelong support of I have already said in Washington and prosperity, of freedom and democracy. those seeking to bring democracy and repeat here: I have heard some argue freedom, peace and prosperity to their that the policy of your great Presidents – Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has been President communities and their countries. Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, of the Republic of Liberia since 2005.

The Atlantic Council 15 Lessons Learned By Václav Havel, former President of the Czech Republic

udging by the number of all represented an enormous contribution invitations, interviews and to us by the West. debates, there is great interest And what do we have that could benefit in the 20th anniversary of the the West? Our first-hand experience of a historic social changes, and this totalitarian regime, of its subtle methods Jinterest, in my opinion, is amplified by of manipulation, and of the fear it the fact that the atmosphere in the world engenders and which pervades society. at the current time is a far cry from the No one on this planet can say that euphoria we experienced in those days. totalitarianism does not concern them, But even at that time it was evident no one can be sure they will not succumb that the enthusiasm could not last long to it, no society is entirely immune to it. and we were at pains to transform it At a time of globalization, at a time when rapidly into a functioning democracy and everyone and everything is interlinked, the rule of law. In spite of the fact that scope for the spread of demagogy is we too were confronted with the rule of actually even more of a risk than ever. “No one on all revolutions – i.e. what one doesn’t And the more sophisticated it is, the more manage to achieve in the first weeks and difficult it is to identify in time. And so months will never be achieved – we did even minor concessions – albeit made with this planet manage to lay the foundations for civic good intentions, maybe – can have grave freedoms, democracy and the rule of consequences in the future. And Central can say that law. We have a developing civil society, and Eastern Europe in particular have we have free media, free elections, a valuable experience of the phenomena of functioning judiciary, and we alone are totalitarianism and demagogy. totalitarianism responsible for all the things we don’t Initially, a small section of society fell like. We are members of all the respected prey to Nazism and communism, but it does not international institutions, in particular, turned out to be sufficient for society NATO and the European Union. as a whole to succumb to eventually. I would be amazed if, from time to Both Nazism and communism were concern them” time, someone in the West did not unprecedented in history and there regret the eastward expansion of those was no previous experience of what organizations. However, I would like to their ideologies could give rise to. So assure everyone that if the Euro-Atlantic one cannot rule out the possibility that zone had not opened up to the countries if humanity was imperiled by a new of Central and Eastern Europe in the totalitarianism, one that was unlike 1990s, we would probably be in a much the two previous ones, it might be more complicated and disadvantageous scarcely recognizable as one at first and situation and exposed to graver dangers. even appear attractive to some, but its Following the fall of totalitarianism consequences could be unforeseeable. and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, Nevertheless, I firmly believe that the new democracies represented a thanks to the common endeavors of us politically fragile space that needed all, the values we share will never again to be filled rapidly. And had the post- be imperiled, but, on the contrary, will be communist countries not been drawn enhanced and proliferate. into trans-Atlantic ties and the process of European unification, the nationalisms Václav Havel was President of that were never far away in this part of Czechoslovakia from 1989 to 1993, and of Europe could now hold sway here. That the Czech Republic from 1993 to 2003.

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istory has never seen a more to the past but not much else.” powerful symbol for an era We at the Atlantic Council accept than that provided by the freedom’s challenge, and that is why we Berlin Wall during the have as our mission the renewal of the Cold War. Atlantic Community for 21st-century HCommunist forces did more than split global challenges. It is also why we a city on August 13, 1961. They divided the introduced, in conjunction with this world. Berlin, with a population then of publication, the Atlantic Council Freedom 3.3 million people, was Europe’s largest Awards. Presented on November 8 in metropolis between Paris and Moscow, so Berlin at the Hotel Adlon, recipients the physical act of closing its border was included U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton on remarkable. The political significance of behalf of the American people, German constructing a 96-mile, concrete edifice Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle between the world’s two competing on behalf of the German people, Berlin systems – adorned with angry strands Mayor Klaus Wowereit on behalf of of barbed wire and protected by guard Berliners, and Admiral James Stavridis, towers, attack dogs and border police with the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, shoot-to-kill orders – was staggering. on behalf of NATO soldiers. We also Many of the contributions in the pages recognized Poland’s Lech Walesa and the that follow address the many factors Czech Republic’s Vaclav Havel, perhaps that brought down the Wall some the period’s most prominent heroes, who 28 years later. Former Secretary of State represent millions of others. Colin Powell reflects on the crucial “The year 1989 was pivotal in the 20th leadership of Presidents Ronald Reagan century and world history,” President and George H.W. Bush. Former National Obama writes in these pages. “The Security Advisors Zbigniew Brzezinski lessons of 1989 are clear: democracy will and Brent Scowcroft speak respectively ultimately triumph over authoritarianism of the decisive roles of the Polish Pope and ordinary people can be powerful John Paul II and Soviet leader Mikhail agents for change.” Gorbachev. Others investigate the Our task at the Atlantic Council is to role of matters ranging from military help ensure that the legacy of that historic containment to cultural invasion. year is carried forward across Europe and Most important, however, is how our for the world. It is in that vein that we prominent contributors connect the dots congratulate this year’s Freedom Awards between the past and the future. General winners and thank the contributors to James L. Jones, President Obama’s Freedom’s Challenge. National Security Advisor, speaks about the need to confront a world of new Frederick Kempe is President and CEO national security challenges that are more of the Atlantic Council of the United complex and dangerous than those of States. If you would like to comment on the Cold War. He warns that NATO must this editor’s note, on the Freedom Awards fundamentally reform itself to address or on any part of this publication, please new threats or it will become “a testimony contact him at [email protected].

18 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 19 Dawn of a New Era When the Wall fell, a new division was drawn. While most people celebrated freedom, some opposed the reuniﬁcation on historical grounds. By Peter Schneider

Citizens from East and West Berlin are united

20 The Atlantic Council ataclysmic historic events are four, however, which Schabowski also poise. Replying to his enquiry, Schabowski not usually announced during read out in his unemotional and now declared, in the manner of a slightly press conferences – with internationally famous faltering manner, bemused professor, that according to his the exception of November included an extraordinary sentence: understanding this would take “immediate, 9, 1989. You would have to “Applications for travel abroad by private instantaneous” effect. Csearch for a long time in the annals of individuals can now be made without The world’s memory of this final recent German history, however, to find the previously existing requirements recorded appearance of the SED such bizarre and clumsy handling of a [of demonstrating a need to travel government chronicles, in a genuinely sensational announcement such as the or providing familial relationships]. satirical manner, the alienation between opening of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago. Permission would be granted at short party and people. Even the most positive Günter Schabowski, a member of the notice. Permanent exit can take place via message for decades, the announcement Politburo of the East German Communist all border crossings from the GDR to the of freedom of travel, and the release of Party (SED), read out the resolutions of FRG and West Berlin, respectively.” GDR citizens from the communist peoples’ the Council of Ministers of the German Schabowski declared afterwards that this prison, ended up being a bureaucratic Democratic Republic at an international note had only just been slipped to him. The performance. The party, of course, had press conference. Nobody bothered to attending journalists at first believed they hoped to win over the GDR citizens by take notes when he announced the first had misheard what had been said. It was opening up the sanctum, the “antifascist three items of the communiqué. Item an Italian colleague who first recovered his protective barrier.” No doubt, the Berlin

The Atlantic Council 21 Wall was opened for the same reason that it was built 28 years previously: to keep the citizens inside the country. We all know how this experiment turned out. It ended with the collapse of the dictatorship of old men – not only in the GDR, but also in the Soviet Union and its satellite states. On the day of the fall of the Berlin Wall I found myself in Dartmouth, New Hampshire, about as conceivably far away as possible from the once-in-a-century event. However, I had declared in the New York Times Magazine of June 1989, in an article titled “If the wall came tumbling down,” that the fall of the Berlin Wall was “quite possible.” (“Ironically,” I modified in the subtitle, “the two Germanys would lose the only thing still unifying them.”) But my prophetic mood wasn’t enough to make me sit down by the Berlin Wall, wait for my prophecy to come true or resist the temptation of being called to the U.S. In my office, in the German department, I was busy revising the New York Times article for the Nouvel Observateur when a colleague stuck his head into my office and asked, “Have you already heard? The Berlin Wall is open. Trabis are driving up and down Kurfürstendamm.” How do you react to the news of a surprising event, which you yourself predicted? Utter surprise. First I laughed told me about eight young people who appears short and inevitable – the disbelievingly, asked almost angrily for squeezed out of a Trabi outside her accession of the GDR to the FGR was him to repeat what he said, then was nursery. They frightened the life out implemented on October 3, 1990. In overwhelmed first with joy, then again of some youngsters from the West by reality this reunification was a miracle disbelief until eventually I blurted out hugging them and dancing with them in that had not appeared in any political as millions of Germans did on that day the streets. A Turkish woman from the probability calculations. In fact, the “Incredible.” I have to admit that amid a Akarsa health center was running to the Germans owe their reunification to the torrent of emotions I also rather selfishly Wall together with 100 other Turkish interplay between half a population wondered why they couldn’t have waited women on November 10. They all cheered and four men: half the population was with the opening of the Berlin Wall and greeted the Germans who came over in the people of the GDR, the four men until after my article had appeared in their stone-washed jeans. But one of them were Mikhail Gorbachev, George W. Nouvel Observateur. said: “Crikey, the men are all so ugly!” Also Bush, Helmut Kohl and Hans-Dietrich The following day I enjoyed the unforgettable is the conscientious library Genscher. The only woman governing in sensation of being greeted in the college user from East Berlin who, shortly before Europe at the time, Margaret Thatcher, corridors over and over again with raised the erection of the Wall, had borrowed made no secret of the fact that she simply thumbs and the word “congratulations.” a book from the American Memorial detested the idea of reunification of People I knew and didn’t know patted me Library. After 28 years he had nothing the two German states. Her French and approvingly on the back, as though I had more urgent to do than to return it. Italian colleagues expressed themselves personally given the order to bring the wall The standard Hollywood image of the rather more diplomatically, and down. Suddenly it felt good to be a German blond, uniform-wearing German who confirmed half-heartedly the right to self- in the U.S. As quickly as I could, I packed up clicks his heels and screams “At your determination, but did everything behind my things in Dartmouth, traveled back to command, Senior Storm Unit Leader,” this rhetorical backdrop to undermine Berlin and asked everyone I met how they was replaced overnight by a new image: the threatening Greater Germany. Honi had experienced the first days after the fall the jubilant, celebrating, exuberant soit qui mal y pense – the Germans had of the Berlin Wall. German, who infected the whole world given their neighbors enough reasons for Many stories and images have imprinted with his high spirits. apprehension during the two world wars. themselves in my memory. There was the As the Berlin Wall fell, it became even Admittedly, at this point, one has to woman from East Berlin who arrived at more of a worldwide icon, a powerful acknowledge a surprising dissent between the suddenly open border checkpoint, in symbol for the suppression of freedom, governments and governed people, her nightshirt and slippers, who looked the very antithesis of the Statue of Liberty. which is usually overlooked. The people confusedly at the ground and asked the That’s exactly the reason why millions of Western Europe revealed in several border official: “Where is the border? of people in distant countries applauded opinion polls that the majority agreed with Am I in the West now?” When the official when this monstrosity suddenly lost their German neighbors’ reunification confirmed that she was, she walked two its power following that stumbling or – as in Poland’s case – an impressive more steps westward, and then calmly announcement. majority. As the wind of change blew in, turned round and started back for home. In retrospect, the path from the the Western European governments and A nursery teacher from West Berlin building of the Wall to reunification the intellectuals stared with alarm towards

22 The Atlantic Council will come to the German D-Mark.” The architect If the Germans had listened to the intellectuals, reunification would never have happened. The East Germans seized Sir Norman the opportunity for reunification with the same instinct of people who have Foster has experienced an economy of scarcity: grab the opportunity as soon as an offer is in the shop window – tomorrow the bananas and metaphorically the oranges might be sold out. In fact, just six months after reunification, i.e. after the taken the weight fall of Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, Helmut Kohl wouldn’t have had anyone to negotiate with. off the dreary Until the fall of the Wall, Berlin was the only German city in which you could Reichstag with sense and see that there was an unfinished chapter of German post-war history called “Germany divided”. Today Berlin is the his glass dome only city in Germany where reunification really has happened. If you go for a walk in the rediscovered Berlin Mitte or in the past, while the people were curious and Friedrichshain, you can’t distinguish were looking forward. between younger passers-by, either by their In Germany things were similar but dress or their accents, let alone by their more complicated. While the leaders of the way of thinking. It is impossible to assign West German government were working them to either East or West. You meet a new energetically towards a swift reunification, species: Berliners who are proud of their the voters remained divided. As is city but in a laid-back way. Those who, like generally known, there was not a single myself, knew Berlin from the 1960s can demonstration in favor of reunification hardly comprehend the transformation. The glass dome of the German parliament in West Germany. The Social Democratic Roofs and lofts have been spruced up, building, the Reichstag, in Berlin Party (SPD) and their leader Oskar beach cafés have sprouted along the canals, Lafontaine were warning of the enormous with sand under the deck chairs; and costs of reunification and were slamming Prenzlauer Berg, formerly a hangout for the on the brakes. Günter Grass was also arty Bohemian crowd in East Berlin, has apprehensive about the Germans and their become the district with the most children “clamor for reunification.” He created a in Europe. The architect Sir Norman Foster stir when he proposed in an essay that the has metaphorically taken the weight off the Germans should wave their right of self- dreary Reichstag with his glass dome and determination. heralded a Berlin era of lightness. The “New Forum,” a grouping that had The locals, with their quick-wittedness, emanated from civil rights movements in tolerance and will to survive, have the GDR, also postulated in favor of two remained throughout all these changes; German states; reunification was not on the and many old walls with their crumbling agenda. Leading intellectuals in the GDR, plasterwork and their bullet holes among them Christa Wolf, Volker Braun from World War II have also remained and Stefan Heym, composed an appeal, – despite the many new buildings and “For our country.” Therein they warned of restoration. And another “icon” has been the “selling out of our material and moral preserved, too: the passer-by who stands values” and called on the citizens of the swearing at the pavement as he scrapes GDR to develop a “socialist alternative to the dog’s mess off the sole of his shoe. the FGR.” The comment of an old worker I only used to tolerate life in Berlin by became famous at the time: “First I got to going away for a while – to Italy or the know National Socialism,” he said, “then United States. But when I had gone for the real existing Socialism in the GDR. I a few weeks, I used to reminisce about won’t survive a third Socialism.” Berlin, comparing her to a difficult It was the people of the GDR who forced mother who time and time again repulsed through reunification. The intellectuals me with her preciousness, her lack of on both sides of the fallen Wall loved style, her abrasiveness and her bouts and idolized the people, as long as they of depression. But there was never any chanted, “We are the people” on their doubt that Berlin was my home. Monday demonstrations starting in Today there is no more reason to Leipzig. They reacted with horror or scorn leave Berlin – apart from the grey sky when the same people cheered the visiting in November. Helmut Kohl in spring 1990, shouting “We are one nation,” and threatening, “If the Peter Schneider is a journalist and author German D-Mark doesn’t come to us, we of The Wall Jumper.

The Atlantic Council 23 Poland’s Path to NATO

Adam Michnik looks at the revolutions that brought about the fall of communism

24 The Atlantic Council he North Atlantic Treaty Union, which was striving for imperial Organization (NATO) was world domination. deﬁned by Soviet propaganda It was the world of the Cold War, as an instrument of imperialist which at times became hot – for example aggression against the camp in Korea, or later in Vietnam. It was Tof socialist states. For us, it was a blessed not, however, a world that could be instrument. For us it was a community divided simply into black and white, of democratic countries based on an good and bad. The expansion of Soviet anti-fascist philosophy with an aim to totalitarianism was accompanied by an safeguard the democratic world against the anti-colonial revolution and the great expansion of communist totalitarianism. attractiveness of Marxist ideology, which When I speak about “us” I have in promised freedom, equality and justice. mind the people who lived behind the The political map of the time gave some Iron Curtain, condemned to Soviet people hope, while it produced anxiety in domination by the agreement made others. An increasing proportion of the at the Yalta Conference. We were the map was turning red, especially after the “younger brother” of the great Soviet communist revolution in China.

Above: French author Jean-Paul Sartre holds a press conference on May 19, 1967 to discuss the sentences pronounced earlier that month in Stockholm by Lord Bertrand Russell’s War Crimes Tribunal on Vietnam

At the same time, it was a period of blindness among many eminent intellectuals and artists from the West. Criticizing the Soviet Union was not fashionable, nor was it in good taste. Jean-Paul Sartre did not want to take hope away from workers in Billancourt, but in doing so he took away the hope of workers from Laba to Vladivostok. Sartre did not want to accept the fact that the last colonial empire was in fact the Soviet Union. The Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians certainly felt the full brunt of it, as did the Ukrainians. Poland was one of the countries without sovereignty. The oppression in Poland was not as brutal as it was in countries that were hitched onto the Soviet Union. Poland was also not a garrison country like the German Democratic Republic (GDR); the Poles were not Russiﬁed like the Ukrainians or Belarusians, but brutal censorship, People gather around a fallen statue mass repressions and discrimination of of Soviet leader Josef Stalin in cultural elites were the norm during the front of the National Theater in Budapest, Hungary, October 24, 1956 Stalinist years. After Stalin’s death, the harshness of the regime softened, but the

The Atlantic Council 25 Opposite: Pope John Paul II, Poland, June 1979

Below: Helsinki, Finland, August 1, 1975, where 35 Heads of State signed the European Treaty for Security. From left: Erich Honecker, East Germany’s First Secretary; U.S. President Ford; Austrian Chancellor Bruno Kreisky; Belgian Prime Minister Leo Tindemans; Bulgarian Prime Minister Todor Zhivkov; Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau

softening had its limitations. Revolts were were of a different opinion. The ideology Charter 77 movement started. President bloodily suppressed, like in Berlin in 1953 of human rights became the core of the Carter announced that human rights or Budapest in 1956. In 1968, attempts emerging democratic opposition. were central to his policy, and in 1978 a to give the governing Communist Party This was helped by the Eastern policy cardinal from Kraków, Karol Wojtyła, in Czechoslovakia a human face were (Ostpolitik) of Willy Brandt, the leader became Pope. The world had changed. quashed by military force. of the German Social Democratic Party. The policy of détente had two faces; the All these revolts were accompanied by By improving relations with Moscow and first face was Nixon’s Realpolitik, namely silence from the West. The Atlantic Pact Warsaw, Brandt destroyed the radical treating the world as it was within the protected Western Europe, but we the anti-German rhetoric, which was the only borders that existed. The second face citizens of the worse part of Europe were effective way to integrate the communist of the policy was détente with a human left to ourselves, thereby extinguishing regime with an anti-communist society. face. This was the policy of Carter and all hope. The feeling of being abandoned It had been easy to convince Poles, Zbigniew Brzezinski. by the West was an enduring syndrome who well remembered Nazi brutality In August 1980, a wave of strikes and forced us to adapt to the new reality. in Poland, that Germany remained a spread through Poland, which in Rebellion was a crazy idea and Soviet threat – a bomb that could explode at consequence led to the establishment of policy seemed triumphant. The Helsinki any moment. Anyone who criticized the Solidarity trade union by people from conference (1975) gave the final seal on the communist government could be the democratic opposition, which was the decisions made at Yalta, where it was accused of supporting German revisionist in actual fact a national confederation decided that the countries of Central policy. The fact that successive German for Polish freedom. The communist Europe would remain in the Soviet governments refused to recognize the dictatorship, which liked to call itself the sphere of influence but would be able to Polish border on the rivers Oder and dictatorship of the proletariat, lost its decide their own internal policy. Yalta Neisse made it all the easier. legitimacy through a proletarian revolt. gave the promise, therefore, of being a Brandt’s policy, and also the decisions It was the greatest moral and political Finlandization rather than a Sovietization made at the Helsinki Conference, defeat that the communist dictatorship of Central Europe. coincided paradoxically with a new wave had suffered. The communist authorities Helsinki was a return to the language of democratic movements in Central and answered this defeat with the only of Yalta and a so-called “third basket” Eastern Europe. Voices started to come weapon they had – military force. was added regarding civil liberties, the out of Russia from great scholars such as U.S. President Ronald Reagan said at adoption of which Soviet diplomacy Sakharov and writers like Solzhenitsyn, the time the famous words “empire of regarded as trying to fit a square peg in a while Ukraine and Lithuania started to evil.” For us Poles, those words were much round hole. Luckily, the elite that formed talk of national freedoms. In Poland, more pleasing than they were for many the opposition in the Soviet Union, the Workers’ Defence Committee was Americans. For us, the military crackdown Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary established, and in Czechoslovakia the on Solidarity highlighted the Manichaean

26 The Atlantic Council division of the world into good and evil. rebellions, Polish ongoing defiance conflict. We believed that a strong Europe Thinking in Manichaean terms, we were and Polish Solidarity had a deciding was necessary as a pillar of the Euro- not in the right, but the main objective was significance. Atlantic alliance and not an opponent of the to survive at all costs. The words of the U.S. Gorbachev opened an area for freedom, United States. We still believe this today. President were a sign of support and hope, which was filled by the Polish compromise Ideological anti-Americanism seems to as was the presence of NATO, which stood of the Round Table and the decision of us to be harmful nonsense. However, we behind the words. the Hungarian government to open its believe that the U.S. policy should be to look Of course, most important for us were western border. However, the will of the for friends among the states of Europe and the words of John Paul II, who did not nation had a deciding significance, and in not treat them as yes-men. The Alliance doubt for a moment the sense of our the case of the Berlin Wall it was the East should not be directed against Russia; it struggle. Two convictions supported us German nation. It was these people who, should be a continual warning against the unceasingly: the conviction about the small in numbers and marginalized at the imperial and expansionist trend appearing economic failure of the communist system, beginning, were able to cause a rebellion in Russian policy. and also the conviction that, thanks to the and bring down the wall. 1989 was a year Our world is full of worrying and existence of NATO, there exists a better, of miracles in which the whole political turbulent events. The end of history free world. In this way, we managed to hold map of Europe changed. At the time, did not happen and shall not happen as out until Gorbachev’s perestroika. Poland had three neighbors: the Soviet long as human civilization exists. While Today people argue about why Union, Czechoslovakia and the GDR. history is the permanent struggle of the communism fell. In the Vatican they say Today, none of those countries exist. spirit of freedom against the world of that it was a result of the policy of John In the new geopolitical reality, Poland enslavement, the world of enslavement Paul II – and they are right. In Washington chose the path to NATO and the European is made up of systems, ideologies and they say it was a result of the policy of U.S. Union. It was the correct decision and totalitarian methods; it is dictatorship, presidents Carter and Reagan – and they none of us regret it. We had a sense that fundamentalism, chauvinism, populism are also right. In Germany they say it was our place was in the world of countries as an article of faith and terrorism as a the result of the sage Ostpolitik of Willy with civil liberties and a market economy. method of action. These threats should be Brandt – and they’re also not mistaken. I am convinced that we showed ourselves faced head-on. This is the reason for the In Moscow they say, quite rightly, that the to be loyal allies in difficult moments: military presence of NATO in Afghanistan. road to the fall of communism was opened at the time of the conflict in Kosovo and NATO is needed today because there by Gorbachev’s perestroika – and they are after September 11, 2001. are still many enemies of freedom. even more correct. In Kabul they assign Today, NATO is standing at a crossroads the fall to the valiant anti-Soviet fighters after being divided by a conflict between Adam Michnik was one of the leaders – and they are not making a mistake. We the United States and the European allies. of Solidarity and the founding Editor in Poland are convinced that the Polish Our conviction was to try to ease this of Gazeta Wyborcza.

The Atlantic Council 27 Frederick Kempe interviews Brent Scowcroft, National Security Advisor to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, and Chairman of the Atlantic Council International Advisory Board

When the Berlin Wall fell 20 years ago, alcoholism. He also cut back on brutality you were a central player as National and repression. But what he was doing – Security Advisor to President George and he did not realize it – was dismantling H.W. Bush. Looking back, who or what the whole apparatus. would you say won the Cold War? The Cold War ended when it did You say that Gorbachev didn’t principally because of the personality recognize what he was unleashing. of Mikhail Gorbachev. If, instead of How about you? Did you have a sense Gorbachev, the Politburo had chosen at the time that history was unfolding? another hardliner, the Cold War would Yes, we did. When we came into office, a not have ended in 1989. The Soviet system lot of people were saying, “The Cold War wasn’t working, but another figure like is over.” I and the President, however, felt [former Soviet leader Leonid] Brezhnev that it was not over because the heart of the would have kept it going for a while. Cold War really was the division of Europe. And Soviet troops were still everywhere in What was it about Gorbachev that Eastern Europe. The rhetoric had changed provided the key? dramatically. Gorbachev was saying His personality. He saw the political and things we liked to hear, but nothing had economic liberalization that was going fundamentally changed. And so we decided on in Poland and Hungary as being run by the key was really to get Russian troops out mini-Gorbachevs who were doing what of Eastern Europe. he was trying to accomplish in the Soviet Union. So he supported, by-and-large, or How did you go about doing that? acquiesced in what was going on in Eastern We altered the strategy toward Eastern Europe – until the Wall came down, and Europe. We had focused previously on then he got scared. arms control with the Soviets, but that What we were seeing was another of became less of a priority. We had also President George H.W. Bush, the recurrent surges in Eastern Europe favored the Soviet’s satellite states that accompanied by National Security that the Soviets had cracked down on had made the most trouble for the Soviet Advisor Brent Scowcroft, right, before, in Berlin 1953, Hungary 1956 and Union, but we shifted our emphasis to arrives back at the White House August 19, 1991, having interrupted Prague 1968. But, unlike previous leaders, promoting the countries that were leading his vacation following the overthrow he saw the changes in Eastern Europe the liberalization measures. of Soviet President Gorbachev as helping him in what he was trying to That means we reversed our support for achieve in the Soviet Union. Communist Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania. He was a Party officials were resisting his reforms, dyed-in-the-wool communist, but he was so he threatened the party by saying, “I’m a pain in the neck for the Russians with his going to have party elections if you guys independent foreign policy. So, Ceausescu won’t shape up and do what I want. I’ll run went to the bottom of our list and those people against you in the party.” that got greater support were Poland and But he was not a democrat, and he was Hungary. We wanted to encourage those not trying to dismantle the Soviet Union. liberalization movements at a pace and He was trying to make it more efficient in a way that would not be so fast that the because it was badly run down. What Soviet Communist party leadership would he started was a program of reforms to react, either to repress those countries improve productivity by addressing issues or overthrow Gorbachev because he was such as absenteeism, corruption and losing control.

28 The Atlantic Council How did you do that? INTERVIEW It wasn’t easy. No one knew what would NAME be exactly the right pace of change. One of the things that frightened me in the SURNAME summer of 1989, when President Bush went to Poland and Hungary, was that in Poland, in particular, there could be big demonstrations supporting him. That could panic the Russians and lead to a crack down. So I argued that we should have no big public events. That became the general strategy – not to provoke the Soviets.

Was it your aim to end the Soviet empire? The aim was to liberate Eastern Europe – to get Soviet troops out of Eastern Europe. We thought that would really mark the end of the Cold War. It was not to destroy the Soviet Union. Did we think they were having some troubles? Yes. Were there things being written, intelligence information that said [Soviet collapse] might happen? Yes, but that was not our goal. It was rather to bring the Cold War to an end by getting their soldiers out of Eastern Europe.

Aren’t you giving Gorbachev too much credit? What about the West’s own strengths as the reason for Cold War victory? What about NATO? How does all this factor in? Of course, all of that made it possible, but Gorbachev was the enabler. Even more than Gorbachev it was [Foreign Minister Eduard] Shevardnadze. He was the one who really encouraged Gorbachev in these policies. It was clear when Shevardnadze quit [in December 1990] that Gorbachev became a somewhat different person. He became much more resistant, much more reluctant to go down the path we wanted him to go.

You give individuals a great deal of credit in shaping historical outcomes. Historians have argued for some time between the role of individuals and underlying forces. Yet this was a time of decisive individuals – Reagan, Bush, the Pope, Walesa, Havel, Kohl, Gorbachev. That is why I emphasize Gorbachev, because he was a curious amalgam. He was intelligent, very cerebral and I would say rather indecisive. And that stood in our stead. For example, Helmut Kohl and George Bush were the only ones that wanted German reuniﬁcation. The Russians didn’t; the French didn’t; the British didn’t. Had Gorbachev been a different kind of a person he might have mobilized the British and French with him

The Atlantic Council 29 And he said “Yes.” Well, his colleagues Germany was so powerful it sort of swept INTERVIEW just about collapsed. They started everybody else along. BRENT remonstrating with him and they went off into the corner of the room to sort it out. President Bush was criticized for SCOWCROFT having responded to the Berlin He had said too much. Wall’s fall in a muted manner when it When they came back and sat down, occurred. No “Mission Accomplished” Gorbachev tried to backtrack. Gorbachev banners. said, “This is a complicated question; we Yes. It was a tumultuous day in Berlin, but need to think about it; we need to plan it; just an ordinary day in the White House. let’s turn it over to our foreign ministers.” The East Germans had announced the wall Shevardnadze said, “Nothing doing, this between the two Germanys would open, is something that has to be done by the but it was unclear whether that would heads of state.” So that was sort of where include the Berlin section. Crowds pressed we left it, but we had broken the dam and against the Berlin border crossings and Gorbachev had admitted that, yes, it was the guards did not resist. I had gone to the the right of the Germans to decide whether President to explain this and tell him that or not to stay in NATO. the picture was still very confused. We still were unclear whether they would crack That was the moment at which you down, or whether they wouldn’t crack believe Gorbachev accepted German down. [White House Spokesman] Marlin President George H.W. Bush unification? He didn’t try to roll it back Fitzwater came in and said, “You’ve got and Brent Scowcroft after that? to say something to the press.” Well, the That was more about Germany in NATO. President said, “I don’t want to give a press Unification was more or less settled by the conference; I don’t have anything to say East German elections in March. We didn’t because we don’t know what’s going on!” press it too hard in the joint communiqué And so we compromised by inviting a after the meeting. We put some flowery small press contingent to the Oval Office, language in, but not that. He was going to and they gathered around the President’s “We focused meet with Kohl in June. We told Kohl all desk. [Journalist] Lesley Stahl was this. And, sure enough, when he met with standing right next to the desk, and she Kohl, Gorbachev said yes to Germany in said something like, “Mr. President, you on a Europe NATO and thus to unification. don’t seem very elated; I would think you’d be dancing.” And he says, “I’m not ‘whole and You talked about how Bush and Kohl an emotional kind of guy” – or something were the only ones who really wanted like that. What we were really afraid of is unification. You were skeptical as well? that this could be one of those events that free.’” I was skeptical only because I thought would force the conservatives in Russia to we had so much on our plate – with what crack down, like Hungary of 1956. and together they probably could have was going on in Poland, in Hungary and kept German unification from happening. with the exodus of refugees from East So playing it down was intentional? He didn’t do that. Germany. I thought we ought to delay the Yes. The worst thing, we thought, would controversial issue of German unification be for the President to gloat that we’d Why did Gorbachev accept German as long as we could because we didn’t know won, because what we wanted was for unification? what would happen there and whether the this momentum to keep going. I think the He didn’t have a better alternative. He Kremlin would respond negatively. Even President behaved admirably. Many people didn’t like it, but he didn’t know what the Germans were divided about whether advocated that the President ought to be to do. I think he realized the notion of a or when it should happen. But in December going to Berlin to dance on the Wall. But I divided or neutral Germany between the 1989, Kohl and Bush had dinner together think the President strategically had exactly East and the West would mean a Europe the day before a NATO meeting. Kohl the right approach. What he kept trying to that would not be stable. outlined his notion for unification. It was a say was, “Look, nobody won or lost here; we slower timetable than actually happened, both won with the end of the Cold War.” When was it clear to you that he could but Bush just said, “Go for it.” For me, it was accept German unification? a fait accompli from that time on. What was the mood in the White The issue of unification was all tied up with House? How were you trying to the issue of whether a united Germany Did you feel pressure from Thatcher steer things? would remain in NATO. We had a meeting and Mitterrand against it? It was a very heady mood, but one also of in May 1990 in Washington. We were not Thatcher was quite open. People credit nervousness and apprehension because able to get him to talk about reunification Mitterrand, but I think it was Thatcher we were trying to keep this thing at a pace and NATO. He just wouldn’t do it. We were who said, “I like Germany so much I that could continue without a crackdown. getting nowhere in the meeting, and then think there ought to be two of them.” There were internal differences on how Bush said, “Do you agree that the Helsinki They were not sympathetic, they were fast we ought to be pushing things, based Accords give the right to all members to reluctant, but they didn’t actually stand on differing assessments of the perils join or not join any alliance, any group?” in the way. The momentum within versus the opportunities.

30 The Atlantic Council A different Dick Cheney (than when Why was it so important to have a probably the most logical, in terms of it came to Iraq)? reunified Germany in NATO? Why did what I’ve laid out and what our strategy A different Dick Cheney – a very Helmut Kohl want it so much? was, is that it ended with the unification different Dick Cheney. Well, there was still a lot of debate about of Germany in October 1990. One can Germany. They had started two world also argue, and I think fairly persuasively, The issue that still haunts us regards wars. What do you do with Germany? A that it ended earlier than that, when we what we had agreed to in terms of neutral Germany in the heart of Europe and Moscow jointly denounced the Iraqi restricting NATO troop deployment had the potential of being a vicious invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. It in the former Soviet bloc. What did nuisance, to say the least. And I think depends how you look at it. you agree to at the time? even the British and the French realized What we promised when it was clear that. My sense is Gorbachev realized that Do you regret anything in the that a unified Germany would be free as well. What do you do with a unified aftermath of this period? to come into NATO was that we would Germany? You can’t keep Germany I’m sorry that because we were fixed on not station NATO troops in the East separated, based on the rush of events near-term goals that we didn’t think hard German part of a unified Germany. in early 1990. So the safest thing to do enough about how NATO had to change Subsequently, the Russians argued that is anchor them in an alliance where going forward. We focused on a “Europe we said that we wouldn’t station NATO they’re bound. whole and free,” but what did that mean? anywhere east. Well, my recollection is What did it mean to NATO to have the that applied only to Germany, because What you’re saying is that Genscher reason for the alliance, the glue that held we had no notion of expanding NATO at was prepared to preemptively it together, disappear? We never faced up that time. That wasn’t on the horizon, negotiate away what Gorbachev to that. let alone the agenda. actually wasn’t demanding in negotiations? What should we have done instead? There were differences in the Well, Gorbachev wasn’t demanding We should have asked ourselves, What German government about how to anything. Gorbachev was just trying to are we trying to do? What are we trying to execute unification and whether a hang on to his hat at this time. Things in do with Russia fundamentally? What is unified Germany should be within East Germany were moving very rapidly, NATO for? We are still struggling with that NATO. Could you characterize and it was almost a matter of chasing question. For example, what does Albania what the differences were between after events. bring to NATO? You can say well, it helps German National Security Adviser us democratize Albania, but is that the job Horst Teltschik and Hans-Dietrich What was your impression of Helmut of NATO? Genscher – and how this played out Kohl during this period? at that time? Kohl was a fascinating individual. He was a What do you think today’s NATO Well, Horst Teltschik was my student of military leaders and leadership. is for? interlocutor and was aligned with Whenever we had free time he would ask Well, that’s a very good question. We Helmut Kohl. We talked frequently, once me what I thought of one military leader need to decide that. We wanted to anchor a week or more. Jim Baker’s interlocutor or another, going back as far as our Civil Eastern Europe as closely to Western was Genscher. And Genscher had a War. He once came a day early on a trip Europe as possible. Now, to me, the somewhat different perspective on to Washington so that I could take him obvious way to do that is the European unification. His notion, as I recall, was through Arlington cemetery and visit Union, but the Europeans didn’t that of an East Germany and a West some of the graves. Well, the day he came want to move that fast. So we pushed Germany that would be something of a turned out to be above 90 degrees, but the expansion of NATO on the West confederation; semi-joined countries he insisted on walking among the graves Europeans, and they were so happy not to united by the parties he thought would and not driving. Here’s Kohl, this large have us hector them about EU expansion probably win the elections in both man, sweating profusely, walking through that they went along with it. countries, and those were the Socialists Arlington with me, fearing he was about to because they were a natural majority pass out. Do you feel you were right in your over East and West Germany. opposition to NATO enlargement? The Communists were not likely How would you judge his role in I remember being surprised at the to win, but he never thought that the history? Russians acquiescing to NATO expansion. Christian Democrats would win. There He was an uncanny natural leader. He They complained, but they acquiesced. was a lot of to-and-fro in the German understood what he had to do was to tame And I think I underestimated what it was government and with us. Germany and embed it so thoroughly really doing to Russian attitudes. I think in Europe that the old impulses would we all did. We were humiliating Russia, not Genscher expressed this notion disappear. And so he visibly accepted intentionally, but nevertheless that was directly with us? French leadership in Europe and signed the net result. Oh, yes. Genscher came here and on to the French as a loyal, almost met with us, I believe in a meeting subordinate, partner even as Germany Brent Scowcroft was National Security preparing for Gorbachev’s visit in unified. And I think that was a crucial Advisor to Presidents Gerald Ford and May. As I recall, there were still some development in Europe at the time. George H.W. Bush, and is Chairman of the differences of opinion on just where Atlantic Council International Advisory we ought to go. But the President’s When did the Cold War end in your Board. He was interviewed by Frederick mind was made up at this time. And so mind? Kempe, President and CEO of the Atlantic was Kohl’s. Well, there are two logical dates. I think Council of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 31 A message from the Government of Georgia

he fall of the Berlin Wall transformed my own life and that of my country, and I am T honored to help commemorate it. On November 9th, 1989, the values of the Atlantic Alliance triumphed over tyranny. It was a moment that captured all our hearts and that liberated the souls of all those who lived behind the Iron Curtain. It was a day we longed for but feared would never come, and it triggered a chain of events that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the liberation of all those countries under the Communist yoke. It was this triumph of the Alliance, and its ability to bring freedom to those who had been long repressed, that has helped guide the people of Georgia over the past 20 years and that has forged our irreversible commitment to NATO.

The fall of the Berlin Wall was certainly a symbol of NATO’s victory over Communist tyranny. What made the moment even more powerful was the fact that the Wall was brought down peacefully by ordinary people, who thus reunited our European continent. But it is worth recalling that, even after the Wall fell, freedom took a long time to reach many of us in Eastern Europe. NATO’s greatest triumph, in my view, has been its renewed relevance after the Cold War. The Alliance has shown great ﬂexibility in reinventing itself to spread the values of freedom and democracy in the East and welcome new members.

Today, NATO faces new challenges, in particular in Afghanistan. Success there for the Alliance will give Afghans the chance to live free of violence and persecution, while allowing the international community to address the scourges of terrorism and drug trafficking. The mission in Afghanistan is critical for the Alliance in another way as well: it will help prove that NATO’s enduring values remain relevant in the unstable world of the 21st century. This is why Georgia is proud to play a full part in the mission, providing all the support we can now and in the future. While Georgia is not yet a full NATO member, we are recognized borders of a European nation. So the vital on the road to membership and are working our project at the heart of the Alliance—to help create a hardest to meet the criteria. Since the 2003 Rose Europe whole and free—remains urgent and necessary. Revolution, we have strived to replace a deeply corrupt, failing state with a modern, responsible one My Government’s response to the challenges we face allied to the West—a state run to European standards is that we must accelerate reforms—in our defence and committed to liberal democracy, free-market structures, certainly, but especially in our democratic principles, and peaceful relations with our neighbours. institutions. The assistance of the Alliance has been Our goal of membership in both the European Union invaluable on both of these fronts. Our friends in and NATO acts as a beacon for the Georgian people. NATO have helped guide my Government in setting an ambitious set of reform goals, including the Georgia’s aspiration of full integration into Euro- establishment of a Constitutional reform commission; Atlantic institutions has faced challenges—none the imminent negotiation and implementation of greater than last summer’s invasion of my country by a revised electoral code that will meet the highest Russia. This premeditated, pre-planned invasion had European standards; the direct election of mayors many goals, but no doubt its principal purpose was next May; a reduction in the powers for the President, to derail our path to the West and to bring us under with a commensurate increase in those for Parliament; the Russian yoke. Today, 20 percent of my country stronger sanctions against officials trying to influence remains under occupation; 130,000 Georgians were judges; and a public television broadcasting forced to flee their homes, including tens of thousands board with equal representation of governing and ethnically cleansed from Abkhazia and South opposition parties. These measures confirm Georgia’s Ossetia, and 30,000 remain unable to return. These deep commitment to democracy and eventual NATO innocent victims, while quickly placed in temporary membership. accommodation, long to return to their homes—as do the 500 000 Georgians who remain refugees and Georgia has been an integral part of Europe for nearly IDPs from the conflicts in the 1990s. After the invasion, three millennia. While the Soviet era isolated my the people of Georgia redoubled their commitment country from Europe, our people never gave up our to Western integration, rebuilt the infrastructure European identity and values. Today, as we strive to damaged in the war, and remained resilient through reunite Georgia with its rightful place in the broader the economic crisis. During this dark hour, our spirits community of European nations, we understand were lifted by our commitment to the West and by the that our geographic position gives us a special resolve of our friends to stand by our side. responsibility. We are committed to contributing to the common agenda of our allies, including energy The challenges we face today in Georgia echo those security and NATO around thw world. When the Berlin that much of Europe faced a generation ago. As Vaclav Wall collapsed, no one could have imagined how far Havel and other leading voices of Europe’s conscience democracy would spread and how quickly. NATO was declared last month, Europe is today divided by a essential to this transformation. Together, and through new wall, built by an outside force—a wall that runs this great Alliance, we can re-enforce those values in through the middle of Georgia. It is a wall that cuts off my country and beyond. one fifth of our territory, a wall that once again divides Europe from itself, creating new lines of repression and fear—artificial dividing lines inside the internationally By President Mikheil Saakashvili Hans-Dietrich Genscher, former West German Foreign Minister, talks to David Marsh about the 10-point plan and European monetary unification

ever far away from the action for fear that, otherwise, they would steal an over German unification was electoral advantage. the triumphantly effective A sign of this rivalry came when Genscher figure of Hans-Dietrich stoked up the campaign for a single Genscher, the veteran West currency in 1987-88 – well before German NGerman Foreign Minister. Born in Saxony, unification – at a time when it was gaining Genscher never lost sight of the essential popularity among the FDP’s clientele in geopolitical reasons for the division of banking and industry, but still attracted Germany. Now an avuncular 82-year-old, he scepticism from Kohl and his Finance remains one of Germany’s most persuasive Minister Gerhard Stoltenberg. pro-European orators. In the weeks before Another, still more potent indication the German parliamentary elections on was that Genscher was not told of Kohl’s September 27, Genscher tirelessly joined in 10-point plan on German unity announced the campaign for his liberal Free Democratic on November 28, 1989. He then went Party (FDP). And when later that evening to Paris to explain the document to an Guido Westerwelle, the FDP leader, enraged President Mitterrand, who had celebrated his party’s return to the Berlin also not been forewarned. Looking back, coalition government with an increased Genscher says, “I was very critical of this share of the votes, Genscher was at his side [the 10-point plan]. Not enough thought before the TV cameras to beam with delight went into it. There was no mention of at the victory. Germany’s adhesion to the NATO Alliance In 1989-90, like Helmut Kohl, François and the European Community, no mention Mitterrand and Margaret Thatcher, of the Oder-Neisse line. And Helmut Kohl’s Genscher realized that the weakness proposal of a possible confederation was of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev a repeat of various plans put forward by presented Germany with an opportunity the East in the past. In fact, what was for unification that might have proved happening was a bottom-up push for unity short-lived. The anxieties of Mitterrand between the two Germanys, stemming from and Thatcher partly stemmed from concern the ordinary people in East Germany, and that opposition to German unity within this really was the driving force of events.” the Soviet military establishment might Recalling his trips during the reunification lead to Gorbachev’s replacement by a saga to the capitals of the war-time allied general. Kohl and Genscher had an equal powers, Genscher says, “I went to the U.S. and opposite motivation: they were worried first, where President Bush assured me that that Gorbachev might be dislodged before the U.S. was in favor of reunification without unification, and the door would close. any hesitation. Then I went to London to As coalition party leaders, Kohl and see Mrs Thatcher. She was more calm than Genscher were rivals as well as allies. One of I might have feared, because the Americans the reasons for Kohl’s frequent abruptness had told her already of their position, and over unity, greatly unnerving London also because [Foreign Secretary] Douglas and Paris, was that he was trying to keep Hurd probably prevented her from saying an decisions secret from the Free Democrats – outright “no.”

34 The Atlantic Council German Chancellor Helmut Kohl (right) and West “After the U.K., I went to Paris. The This was a critical point, since this was the German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher President explained that reestablishment of issue that could damage German export before the second day of the European Community German unity was a historical necessity and interests.” Summit in Maastricht, Netherlands, December 10, 1991 France would be on the side of Germany. Genscher also realized U.S. suspicions Then Mitterrand asked me: “What will about the move to a single currency. “There Germany do with its new unity? Will it was a feeling of concern in Washington carry on with its European policies or about the progress towards the euro. The will it seek to go down old paths?” I was new currency would naturally be a rival for about to answer, when Mitterrand added a the dollar.” further thought: that even if Germany did Genscher was implacable on the decide to travel down the old paths again, independence of the new European France would not oppose unification, but Central Bank. “This was partly a political would seek to reestablish its old alliances. consideration. Otherwise the West I answered, speaking not only for myself Germans would not be in favor. But above and my party, but also for the Chancellor, all, there was a sound economic reason the Christian Democratic Union and for an independent central bank – as the the Social Democratic Party, that West German economic track record had shown Germany’s European policies would be since the 1950s. an unchangeable element of the future “I was under no illusion as to the depth strategy of united Germany.” of the possible French resistance on Recalling France’s motivations on [central banking independence]… Finally European policies, Genscher says, it was Mitterrand who saw the granting of “Mitterrand showed concern in 1989 about independence to the new central bank as a possible drift towards German neutralism. a step forward in European integration, “ Mitterrand This was the reason why he was eager to reflecting France’s own interest in press forward with steps towards greater transferring monetary power to the showed integration into western Europe.” European Central Bank.” Genscher shows sensitivity about Now, with the euro nearly 11 years old, French views: “If Mitterrand spoke [in the Genscher believes European monetary concern in late 1980s] about the D-Mark being like unification (EMU) is on the right track the Germans’ nuclear weapon, this was – but other members will have to take 1989 about a not entirely wrong. The Bundesbank was the Germans’ lead. “Germany has also without doubt the dominant bank in Europe. sometimes been slow to face up to the From a French point of view, also from the challenges of globalization. Finally, it has possible drift perspective of other countries which had to been our export orientation that has made follow the German interest rate movements, the difference in forcing the Germans to towards this was a difficult position to live with. It change policies. I believe that facts will was also not completely satisfactory for the push the other EMU members in the same Germans. Although the Germans set the direction as Germany.” German interest rate for the rest of Europe, they had no influence on decisions over whether other Hans-Dietrich Genscher was the West neutralism” countries might devalue their currencies. German Foreign Minister from 1974-1992.

The Atlantic Council 35 The Night The Wall Went Up

Frederick Kempe, in an excerpt from his forthcoming book, tells the story of how the Wall came into being

Wednesday, August 9, 1961 near the Polish border, to a stockpile at Communist Party headquarters, a police barracks in the Berlin district East Berlin of Pankow and several other locations. Like a veteran stage producer preparing Several hundred East German police from for the performance of a lifetime, Walter outside Berlin had assembled at the vast Ulbricht rehearsed every scene time and State Security Directorate compound at again in the last crucial hours before his Hohenschönhausen on Berlin’s outskirts. August 13 curtain call. His drama, code- Ulbricht was just as precise in his choice named “Operation Rose,” would play for of army and police units that would be one night only. He would have no second involved. Absolute loyalty was required chance to get it right. as their first task, beginning at 1:30 a.m., No detail was too small for Ulbricht’s would be to form a human wall around attention or that of Erich Honecker, the West Berlin to stop any spontaneous Central Committee’s chief for security escape attempts or other individual acts matters. At age 48, Honecker had two of resistance until construction brigades unique qualities: unquestioned loyalty could put up the first physical barriers. and unmatched organizational talents. Thus he would use only the most trusted, Did they have sufficient barbed wire elite members of factory fighting units, to wrap around West Berlin’s entire, border police, reserve police, as well as 96-mile (155km) circumference? To police school cadets. avoid suspicion, Ulbricht’s team had Regular army soldiers would form distributed the barbed wire orders among the second line of defense and would, a number of East German purchasers, in an emergency, move up to fill in any who in turn had negotiated with several breaches in the forward line. The mighty, different manufacturers in both Great fail-safe power of Soviet military would Britain and West Germany. Despite such stand back in a third ring, which would unprecedented activity, Ulbricht was only advance if allied forces disrupted satisfied that Western intelligence thus the operation. Ulbricht’s team would far had failed to sound an alert. distribute ammunition using the same Ulbricht’s men and their Soviet advisors conceptual precision, providing sufficient had mapped every meter of the 27 miles quantities to hold the line, but distributed (47km) of border that ran through the city in a manner designed to avoid a reckless center between West and East Berlin and shooting that could trigger war. the remaining 69 miles (108km) between Police and military units would have West Berlin and the East German 30 minutes to close the border from the countryside. They knew precisely what moment they received their orders at sort of peculiarity might face them on one in the morning, at which point all each street and at each crossing. East Berlin street lights would be doused Dozens of trucks already had so as to better conceal their handiwork.

Right: Guarding the border transported hundreds of concrete Honecker’s forces would then have a crossing station, Teltow, uprights secretly from Eisenhüttenstadt, further 180 minutes to put up barriers East Berlin, August 3, 1961 an industrial town on the Oder River around the city, including the complete

36 The Atlantic Council closure of 68 of the current 81 total 13 to all corners of East Germany August 13, 1961, Berlin: An East Berlin policeman stands crossing points to West Berlin. That would and throughout the world. He would guard at Potsdamer Platz as communist police threaten to leave only a manageable 13 checkpoints blame his action on the West German shoot angry crowds of anti-communists demanding that their escape route to West Berlin be reopened for East German police to monitor once government’s “systematic plans for a the dust settled. civil war” that were being executed by At precisely 1:30 a.m., East German “revenge-seeking and militaristic forces.” authorities would shut down all public The statement said the “sole purpose” of transport. They would prevent trains the border closing was providing security coming from the West from unloading to East Germans. passengers at Friedrichstrasse, the main East-West station. At key crossings that Straussberg, East Germany, would never reopen, teams equipped People’s Army Headquarters with special tools would split train 8:00 p.m., August 12 tracks. If all went well, the whole At midnight on the dot, Honecker rang job would be done by 6:00 a.m. army headquarters and issued the order Ulbricht cleared the ﬁnal language to begin. for the ofﬁcial statement that he would This sent into action some 3,150 circulate in the early hours of August soldiers of the 8th Motorized Artillery

38 The Atlantic Council Erich Honecker had quite literally caught Berlin sleeping

forces would move into action in the the Pentagon had more often than not hours ahead. They would be supported included warnings that he should allow by a further 40,000 soldiers around himself to be provoked into military action. the country in case unrest spread in So through the night of August 13 he response to their action. did what seemed appropriate from all the It was a cool and clear night – perfect messages he had been getting before that for the purpose. crucial evening, which were above all not to be provoked into any action he might West Berlin, the French sector regret later or could escalate into violent 1:50 a.m., August 13 conﬂict. He wasn’t proud of it, but Watson Just 20 minutes after the operation played it safe and did nothing. began, West Berlin Police Sergeant Hans Watson’s approach was only reinforced Peters saw the blazing headlights of a at 7:30 a.m. when he learned that four half dozen East German army trucks Soviet divisions had moved out of their as they rolled down the road he was usual garrison areas in East Germany and patrolling, Streilitzer Strasse. It was a had surrounded Berlin. street that, like 193 others, crossed the It was an elaborately and perfectly previously unmarked boundary between organized operation, about which U.S. two Berlins. military intelligence had reported The trucks stopped at what looked to nothing in advance. What it meant to him to be less than a soccer ﬁeld away. Watson was that Soviet troops were Two squads of a half dozen soldiers each primed to pounce in such numbers sprawled and squatted on the sidewalks that they would overwhelm his facing west, pointing their machine guns paltry force if it dared respond. on their tripods in his direction. They The Commander of the Russian troops had no intention of invading the West – in East Germany, Marshal Ivan Konev, wanting only to set up a deterrent line. had won. He knew that under the four- Behind them, two other squads carried power agreement that U.S. and other barbed wire. With their backs covered allied troops had every right to knock by other soldiers, they began to uncoil down the barriers the East Germans had the strands and hang them from wooden put up as an impediment to free access saw horses they had placed across the put up by units who had no right to street. They put up a cordon safely within operate in the city. the Soviet zone, behind an invisible His job had been to relay to the allies demarcation line. beyond all doubt, and particularly to the Peters, from a nearby telephone booth, U.S., the unacceptable cost of taking such alerted his superiors to what he had a course. His method: ringing the city on witnessed: brown-uniformed border a very obvious military alert. And just in Division on East Berlin from Schwerin police, who looked baby-faced and young case the U.S. missed that, Khrushchev with 100 battle tanks and 120 armored to him, were now posted behind their had put Soviet rocket forces on full alert personnel carriers. It dispatched a strands of barbed wire. throughout Eastern Europe in a manner further 4,200 troops of the 1st Motorized They now had turned their guns, which calculated to attract Western notice. Division from their barracks in Potsdam initially had pointed west while putting There was much work yet to be done to beside the city with their 140 tanks and the border in place, to the east for the make the closure permanent, but opening 200 personnel carriers to guard the real purpose of containing their own night could not have been executed outer ring around West Berlin. They people. more perfectly. Not an allied soldier had would form the second ring of defense challenged the operation. Only very few behind the border front lines, which West Berlin, U.S. military East German citizens had disrupted the would be made up of 10,000 men from headquarters, Clayallee night’s work. units of the East Berlin Volkspolizei, the Morning, August 13 Erich Honecker had quite literally 1st Brigade of the Readiness Police and General Watson, the American caught Berlin sleeping. the Berlin Security Command. commandant in Berlin, felt hamstrung by In all, some 8,200 People’s Police, his reporting lines and instructions. He An excerpt from BERLIN 1961: Kennedy, 3,700 members of the mobile police, also doubted his own judgment, having Khrushchev, and The Most Dangerous reinforced with 12,000 factory fighting been in Berlin just three months. Place on Earth, by Frederick Kempe (to be group men and 4,500 State Security For weeks, his instructions from published in 2010 by G.P. Putnam’s Sons.)

The Atlantic Council 39 40 The Atlantic Council The Wall… Always the Wall Frederick Forsyth’s Cold War Berlin

do not recall the exact day but it West Germany shrewdly decreed that was surely in early August 1963 while she would refuse the validity of East that Harold King, the iconic German degrees in politics, philosophy, Bureau Chief of Reuters’ bureau history etc (communist propaganda) she in Paris called me in, and he was would accept degrees in maths, physics, Inot best pleased. I thought it was I who chemistry, engineering and so forth. had invoked his impressive ire, but it was Between 1945 and 1961, tens of thousands news from London. of young East Germans waited until they “The buggers want to offer you Berlin,” graduated, then grabbed a bag, took the he growled. It was flattering that he train to East Berlin and simply walked should not want me to leave after only into the West. Once in West Berlin they 18 months in crisis-torn Paris, but West would be flown down the air corridor to a Berlin was an unmissable chance. It had new life and career in the West. a staff of four under the veteran German East Germany had been industrially and Alfred Kluehs. It would be good to work comprehensively raped by the USSR with under him, I ventured. most of her assets put on trains heading “Not West Berlin, idiot,” grumped the east. Now the cream of her youth was Paris Chief. “East Germany.” simply draining away towards the West. My heart did one of those chicane swerves. It was a one-man bureau, so that meant Bureau Chief. I was still just 24. The parish east of the Iron Curtain comprised East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. It was huge and, apart from its three national armies, contained three Soviet army groups. All three countries had harsh regimes, vicious secret police apparats and about one Western correspondent – the Reuters man. But the core was East Berlin, glowering and snarling behind the recently erected Berlin Wall. This was the absolute height of the Cold War, nine months after the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the general agreement was that if World War Three and mutual wipe-out ever came, Berlin would probably be the spark. Forty-six years later a word of Finally, in August 1961, working 24 hours a explanation is in order. After 1945 the day and with Soviet agreement, they put up Reich was divided into four zones: the Wall and closed the last aperture. American, British, French and Russian, The reaction of the West was volcanic. between the east and the west the Iron Everyone knew why they had to do it, but Curtain went up. But Berlin, set 110 miles that was not the point. The Wall broke every Left: Frederick Forsyth c.1970 inside East Germany, was subject to a treaty on the city of Berlin. NATO led the different treaty and though divided into charge. Every embassy was closed, every Right: A still from the film of four sectors, was decreed an open city. diplomat and trade delegation withdrawn. Frederick Forsyth’s The Fourth Protocol (1987), starring Michael For East Germany that was virtually a And that meant foreign correspondents. Caine and Pierce Brosnan death sentence. All the East German press people in the

The Atlantic Council 41 West were expelled, including the ADN (East German News Agency) woman in the Reuters building in Fleet Street. But the East German Politburo made one That evening, wondering if exception. They might pump out bilge to their own people but they wanted to know what one would see the dawn, is was really going on in the world, so, without any quid pro quo, one Western reporter was allowed to stay. The Reuters man. Thus, one I will not forget after a fortnight of intensive briefing in London, I sat on a sultry September night staring down from the elevated rail line as the Paris-Warsaw train eased out of West Berlin and trundled into the East. And then I looked down on the Wall. Some think it was a straight line. Not at all. It switched and swerved from the city limits on the north side across the divided city to the south. But always in sharp angles, never a soothing curve. Back then many abandoned apartment blocks still stood on the east side, very close to the Wall. They were compulsorily abandoned, with west-facing windows bricked up, later to be demolished to create an open killing ground. But then the demolitions were not finished. These were the buildings from which desperate heroes tried to jump to freedom only to die on the wire, in the minefields or under machine-gun fire. Seen from above there was a dark city and a blazing city and between them the brilliantly illuminated, snaking Wall. And the train rumbled into East Berlin’s main station. I was met by my predecessor, Jack Altman. He had taken a year of it; the bugging, the watching, the eavesdropping, the following, the knowledge that everyone he talked to would be interrogated. It had got to him. He was stressed out, hyper-tense. I shared the office/apartment with him for three days, then he was gone, still seeing Stasi (secret police) agents behind every kiosk. I determined I was not going down that road and, although bi-lingual in German and with adequate Russian, I affected with officialdom a cheerful, Bertie Wooster ineptitude and a strangled accent. Even the leather-coated Stasis I made a point of greeting loudly across the street with unquenchable good humor. It drove them potty. But… you wish to know about the Wall. Let me recall three incidents. As a foreigner, my crossing point into West Berlin was the famous Checkpoint Charlie. Those who recall the opening scenes of the Richard Burton film The Spy Who Came In From The Cold may wonder if it was really like that. Yes, on a bitter winter night under the arcs, it was just like that. Menacing. On November 22, 1963, I was dining Chorus girls at an East Berlin nightclub in West Berlin with a glorious girl when

42 The Atlantic Council the muzak stopped and a grim voice said monster that kept people apart. All across Europe the ministry lights in German: “Achtung, achtung. Hier The allocated crossing point was the were going on. The British Foreign ist eine Meldung. President Kennedy ist Chausseestrasse crossing and at the Secretary was dragged from his bed. In erschossen.” (“Attention, attention. Here appointed hour a huge seething mass of Washington, the Defense Secretary was is an announcement: President Kennedy citizenry appeared on both sides. Both sets whisked from a dinner in Georgetown. It has been shot and killed.”) of authorities lost control. Young West took two hours and some frantic messages At first nothing happened. There was a Berliners were trying to find relatives to Moscow to sort it out. jolt in the babble as if someone had said while buffeted officials tried desperately It was one week to May 1st and the something particularly silly. Kennedy to examine their passports. A hundred silly bastards were rehearsing the May was a demi-god in West Berlin. He had George Smileys could have slipped through Day Parade. In the middle of the night. visited in June. He had guaranteed their and that had the Stasis in hysterics. Without telling anyone. With the mystery protection. He had said he was a Berliner. Wanting to get the feel of this mass explained a large number of bricks rained Then the message was repeated. of humanity, I hopped on a car bonnet, down on Reuters’ man in East Berlin. Chaos. Pandemonium. Hysteria. Women then the roof and from there to the top Well, how was I to know? No one else did. screaming, men swearing in a continuous of the Wall. Then I walked down it to the I left East Berlin that October after 13 torrent of oaths. I threw a fistful of edge of the crossing zone. I had a British months. Quietly, with my car parked by D-Marks on the table, asked the girl to sheepskin car coat (the temperature was my office. Alone, walking with a single settle up (not that anyone was going to 10 below) and a Finnish wolf fur hat. Very grip through Checkpoint Charlie. Once worry about asking for the bill) and ran for sexy. And very spooky, it seems. safely in the West I could fly out of my office car by the kerb. It was an East Cameras began snapping unseen from Tempelhof to London. German car, a Wartburg, often daubed with east and west. I do not know how many The fact is, I had been having a torrid insults by West Berliners who presumed I agencies have a picture of me towering affair with a stunning East German must be a high-ranking communist to have over the chaotic mass of humanity, girl. She explained she was the wife of permission to come over. pushing and shoving at the crossing point a People’s Army corporal, based in the Checkpoint Charlie was like the Marie that afternoon, but it was a great story and, garrison at faraway Cottbus on the Czech Celeste. The GIs, stunned, stared out of as I was the only one there, an exclusive for border. She was an amazing lover and their booth but did not emerge. The East Reuters. Head Office sent me a congrats rather mysterious. Berlin barrier swung up eventually and I on the story and a warning, which I think She was immaculately dressed and reported to the Custom shed. Never had I, came from MI6, not to play “silly buggers.” after our almost-all-night love sessions nor did I since, see those arrogant young Eventually a squad of hysterical East at my place refused to be driven home, guards, chosen for their fanaticism, so German People’s Police stormed up to insisting on a taxi from the railway station. utterly terrified. grab me off the Wall. I came down, putting I wondered about the clothes, and the Even back then, before email, texting, on my Bertie Wooster what-have-I-done- money for taxis. One day I spotted one or any knowledge of cyberspace, you could wrong act and they let me go. I went home of the drivers at the station whom I had not block out the radio waves. They all and filed the story. seen at my door picking up Siggi. He said listened. They all knew. They begged me to Not quite so funny was the occasion I he had taken her to Pankow. That was a assure them there would not be war. And nearly started World War Three. To this very upscale address, the Belgravia of East this was before we learned that Lee Harvey day I protest it was not entirely my fault. Berlin. On a corporal’s salary? Oswald was a communist, had defected to For a young Westerner, private life It was in a bar in West Berlin that two the USSR and been sent back. When that was a social Sahara – even meeting and buzz-cut Americans who screamed CIA came through, even the Foreign Ministry conversing with someone from the free slid over to offer me a drink. As we clinked begged me to tell the West it was not their world could mean, for an East Berliner, they murmured that I had a certain nerve fault. That evening on the Wall, edging a snatch and interrogation by the Stasis. to be sleeping with the mistress of the towards midnight, the only Westerner But there was one place that was usually East German Defense Minister. at the crossing, surrounded by near- lively late at night – the Opera Café. It was not the minister I worried about hysterical border guards, wondering if one So one night, April 24, 1964, at about as I drove back through the Wall. It was would see the dawn, is one I will not forget. one in the morning, I was driving home his political enemies who would love to Harold King had trained me well. when, at a junction, I was stopped by a arrange his downfall and a show trial for The training cut in. I raced back to the Russian soldier planted foursquare in me. Time to go. A week later I walked office and started to field the torrent of the road, back to me, arms spread. As through the Wall for the last time. calls from equally terrified East German I watched, a massive column of Soviet I saw its destruction in November 1989 officialdom. I filed a story but I don’t military-might rolled past; guns, tanks, on television. But I was there October 1, think it ever saw print. That night it was mechanized infantry bolt upright in their 1990, the formal reunification of the two Dallas, Dallas, Dallas. trucks… I spun round and tried another cities and the two Germanys. I noted that A month later, the East Berlin road. Same result; column after column a team of workmen was at Checkpoint authorities relented in their complete ban of Soviet armor and I realized it was all Charlie – turning it into a tourist on West Berliners entering East Berlin. heading straight for the Wall. attraction. So I went to a bierstube, ordered Many of those who had fled were young, Twisting and turning down the blackened half a liter of Schultheiss and raised it in but Papa and Mutti had remained behind. back streets I made it to my office, their general direction. Cheers, it was a For some reason Pankow (the government then typed and sent the story. I did not fascinating year behind the Wall. suburb) decided to let visitors in for exaggerate; I did not explain because I had Christmas reunions. It was supposed to no explanation. I just reported what I had Frederick Forsyth is a best-selling author, be a propaganda triumph. Actually, it just seen. Then I brewed a strong black coffee whose works include The Day of the underlined the brutality of the concrete and sat by the window to wait for dawn. Jackal and The Fourth Protocol.

The Atlantic Council 43 A Diplomatic Approach

David Marsh talks to Douglas Hurd, former British Foreign Secretary

he fall of the Berlin Wall institutional hurdle that reflected the reshaped the map of Europe U.K.’s opposition to EMU and general in more ways than one. As well suspicions about “European” policies. as ending the East-West divide Patrick Salmon, chief historian of and promoting the collapse the Foreign and Commonwealth Office Tof the Soviet Union, it accelerated the (FCO), in a foreword to an authoritative move to economic and monetary union FCO study of the political consequences (EMU) – part of a complicated quid pro of the fall of the Wall published in quo between Paris and Bonn. As Michel September 2009, writes tellingly: “The Rocard, French Prime Minister from 1988 United Kingdom lacked leverage… to 1991, put it, “[Francois] Mitterrand There was nothing comparable with the had to accept reunification more quickly close institutional and personal bonds than he thought likely, in the same underlying the Franco-German axis way that [Helmut] Kohl had to accept within the European Community.” monetary union more quickly than he The man who played a delicate role had intended.” heading the FCO at the time of German Britain and Germany did not see eye unity was a “diplomat’s diplomat,” to eye on unification, particularly in Douglas (now Lord) Hurd. Hurd the initial stages. This was not merely joined the diplomatic service in 1952 a question of the hostility of Margaret and celebrates his 80th birthday in Thatcher, British Prime Minister up until March 2010. He became a Conservative 1990. In addition, there was a built-in politician in the 1960s and took over as Foreign Secretary in late October 1989, just a fortnight before the Wall fell. Hurd’s own conservative sensibilities, and his loyalty towards Thatcher, were put to the test as the unity process accelerated. Recognizing that the Prime Minister’s implacability was straining London’s ties not just with Bonn but also, still more importantly, with Washington, Hurd played an awkward hand with aplomb. He placed particular emphasis on his relationship with Hans-Dietrich Genscher, the West German Foreign Minister, who was not always taken into the confidence of Kohl on key issues, such as the Chancellor’s 10-point plan for German unity announced without consultation on November 28, 1989. When Hurd visited Chancellor Kohl for a 70-minute tête-à-tête on February 6, 1990, Kohl – sensing the Foreign Secretary was much more sympathetic to reunification than his political boss – suggested that Hurd become an alternative go-between for communication with London. Hurd

44 The Atlantic Council Pit quam si Igna feu faccum onullum Rostiscil elisit dionulla con henim digna facil diat lortie magnit ad et,

Former Soviet President Mikhail responded affably that “he would be Hurd, a student of human nature as well Gorbachev (center) joins Foreign happy to come for a quiet talk at any as a diplomat, says that Thatcher has since Ministers Roland Dumas of France (second left), Eduard Shevardnadze time if it could be useful,” – sparkling a opined that, in similar circumstances, she of the Soviet Union (third left), U.S. frosty rebuke from 10 Downing Street would have behaved in the same way as Kohl. Secretary of State James Baker that the Prime Minister, not the Foreign Hurd points out that the German Chancellor (behind Gorbachev), East German Secretary, was “in charge.” turned out to be “completely robust” on a Prime Minister Lothar de Maiziere (second right), West German Looking back after 20 years, Hurd key issue that particularly vexed the British Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich recognizes that Thatcher’s principal – united Germany’s NATO membership. Genscher (behind de Maiziere) and worry was that German unity would Contrary to expectations, Hurd notes, British Foreign Secretary Douglas weaken Mikhail Gorbachev and thus the German economy, instead of instantly Hurd (right) in Moscow after the signing of the treaty on German destabilize the Soviet Union’s passage to benefiting from unity, experienced years of reunification reform. But Thatcher’s penchant for plain problems. The personal advice given to the speaking on Germany was problematic. Prime Minister, Hurd says, was that “the “We couldn’t be sure what she would addition of 15 million highly disciplined say,” says Hurd. “The danger was that she Prussians and Saxons would give the would separate us [the U.K.] from the U.S. German economy such a boost as to make and France and Germany, without having it impregnable.” The outcome, Hurd any influence on Gorbachev.” believes, confirmed the dictum of Britain’s Kohl upset Thatcher, Hurd recalls, by late 19th-century leader Lord Salisbury “breaking a window and passing through that prime ministers should ignore the it” on reunification. As a new Foreign advice of experts: “The clever people were Minister thrust into an intoxicating spell completely wrong.” of diplomacy that ended the Cold War, And what of Germany today? In 2009, Hurd says, “I didn’t get anxious: it was the country is under the wing of Kohl’s all great fun.” His diaries of the time are Christian Democrat successor Angela studded with references to how others Merkel. “She is a sensible woman, a pastor’s found the experience less pleasurable. Of daughter. To have a protestant middle-class a notable summit meeting in Strasbourg lady in charge of the most powerful country in December 1989, Hurd wrote: “Kohl red in Europe is about as good an outcome you and cross throughout – especially with could possibly have thought of.” MT.” The Prime Minister, he recorded, was “unnecessarily abrasive – but less Lord Douglas Hurd of Westwell was British than usual.” Foreign Secretary from 1989 to 1995.

The Atlantic Council 45

A New Era of Globalization Josef Ackermann reﬂects on the fall of the Wall

he fall of the Berlin Wall in the Berlin Wall was actually opened. The the autumn of 1989 was an following day, many of the residents of exceptional event in German East Berlin and citizens of the former and world history. As a German- German Democratic Republic crossed to speaking Swiss national West Berlin and celebrated their new- Tliving in Zurich at the time, I was deeply found freedom. Less than a year later, moved by the events. Freedom in East Germany was reunified. Germany and German reunification were The significance of these events can breathtaking developments, which we had hardly be overestimated. Along with always hoped for, but did not really expect Germany’s reunification and the economic to happen in our lifetime. The political reconstruction of the former East German division of the world into the Soviet Bloc states, the Soviet Union fell apart and and the West had been firmly established. Russia turned to embrace democracy and Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost and a market economy, with many countries in perestroika policies in the Soviet Union Eastern Europe following suit. and the states it controlled, which European integration progressed actually set things in motion, came as a rapidly, and the euro was launched. The “The fall of surprise to all of us. Gorbachev loosened European Union was enlarged to comprise the grip on the Soviet Bloc and that sealed 27 member states. With trade between the fate of the Honecker government. East and West blossoming, investment the Berlin Mass protests against the government in flowed eastwards, while wealth and East Germany, long considered too risky, democracy progressed significantly in the Wall... changed initially called for political, economic and countries of the former Soviet Bloc. Some social reforms, but then for reunification. Eastern Europeans and East Germans West Germany’s Chancellor Helmut Kohl moved westwards but, on balance, international and East Germany’s new government, large-scale imbalances and risks were strongly supported above all by the U.S. avoided. Since 1989, per capita income has affairs forever” administration of President George substantially risen in all these countries, H. W. Bush, showed great resolve and levels of prosperity have increased German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder leadership. Reunification became reality considerably, and most transition (right) with Russian Prime Minister with astonishing speed. countries in Eastern Europe have become Mikhail Kasyanov, ahead of their bilateral meeting at the Chancellery Fortunately, there was no outbreak of stable democracies. Germany is a different in Berlin, April 23, 2001 violence on November 9, 1989, the day place today as well. East Germany has made substantial progress. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the transition to democracy and market economics in most Eastern European countries have changed international affairs forever. The former confrontational stance of heavily armed superpowers is now a thing of the past, having been replaced by more nuanced international relations. The rise of China, India and other big emerging market countries has sustainably changed the global interrelations of economic and political power. Undisputedly a historical watershed, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the start of a new era of globalization and geopolitics.

Josef Ackermann is Chairman of the Management Board and the Group Executive Committee, Deutsche Bank AG.

The Atlantic Council 47 “Tear Down This Wall!”

Richard Burt reﬂects on the impact of Ronald Reagan’s 1987 speech in Berlin

wenty years after the fall Leaders of the new Green Party (as well of the Berlin Wall, it is as some in other parties) suggested that tempting to view the Cold there was an American-Soviet “conspiracy” War confrontation over Berlin to keep Germany divided. More moderate as pretty cut-and-dried: German leaders didn’t accept this line, but Tsurrounded by a hostile East Germany and increasingly argued that the early Cold War more than 300,000 Red Army soldiers, a goal of German reunification – achieved democratic West Berlin was kept alive by through military strength and political politico-military commitments provided unity with the West – was unrealistic. by West Germany’s three principal allies: Rather than reunification, it had become Britain, France and the United States. fashionable in West German political circles By the mid-1980s, however, the reality to talk about accepting the division of was more complex. In both West Berlin Germany, but then working to “overcome” it Right: U.S. President Ronald Reagan and the Federal Republic, Germans were by seeking stronger political and economic takes a hammer and chisel to the Berlin Wall on Potsdamer Platz in beginning to suffer from a certain degree of ties with the East. Needless to say, this line of East Berlin, September 12, 1990 Cold War “battle fatigue.” In West Germany, thinking was welcome in the economically politicians in Bonn complained about the uncompetitive German Democratic Below: U.S. President Ronald Reagan burden of hosting hundreds of thousands Republic (GDR), which was continually on (right) and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl (left) during Reagan’s of allied troops and wondered how long the lookout for ways to extort hard currency visit to the Berlin Wall, June 12, 1987 Germany’s division would drag on. and modern technology from the West. These political currents were also felt in West Berlin, where the British, French Berlin provided the perfect and U.S. “occupation” presence were not only viewed by some as an anachronism, but also an impediment to closer ties to the backdrop for Reagan and his GDR authorities. Thus, it was against this political political philosophy backdrop that, in 1987, Berlin prepared to celebrate its 750th anniversary. To the democratically elected Berlin Senate, the anniversary was an opportunity to raise the city’s international profile. But for me and my British and French ambassadorial colleagues, the anniversary served an additional purpose: to underscore the allies’ continuing commitment to freedom in West Berlin and the continuing relevance of the mission of reunification – of Berlin and Germany as a whole. As a result, we worked together with our home governments to gain approval for visits from Queen Elizabeth, François Mitterrand, and Ronald Reagan during the course of the year. We all had high hopes for the Reagan visit. His earlier visit, in 1985, to the Federal Republic had been marred by the much- publicized Bitburg controversy, in which

48 The Atlantic Council the White House learned, at the last minute, that the President would participate in a Standing with the Berlin Wall and ceremony at a cemetery where Waffen SS troops were buried. But Berlin provided the Brandenburg Gate at his back, the perfect backdrop for Reagan and his political philosophy. Working closely with the excellent White House advance Reagan gave the speech of his career team, the U.S. Embassy in Bonn and the U.S. Mission in Berlin (led by the talented John Kornblum) produced a scenario that The speech was a big hit with his West German views of Reagan and focused on a major presidential speech that audience (and back home in the United the “speech” began to change as they would rival John F. Kennedy’s “Ich bin ein States.) The reaction of the German watched him achieve arms control and Berliner” address in 1961. political elite was more complicated. other agreements with Moscow, and The setting could not have been better. On the day of the speech, the Mayor of as Gorbachev’s reform process went Standing before a crowd of several hundred West Berlin, Eberhard Diepgen, wanted forward. While many in Bonn had seen thousand Berliners, and with the Berlin President Reagan’s challenge to Gorbachev Reagan’s “freedom agenda” as warmed- Wall and the Brandenburg Gate at his back, removed from the speech, on the grounds over Cold War rhetoric, they gradually Reagan gave the speech of his career. that it could “complicate” relations began to understand that it resonated It was a beautiful June day and the with East Berlin. Several West German throughout Eastern Europe. It was this crowd was in a good mood. He talked abut politicians, meanwhile, saw Reagan’s growing desire for self-determination the human values that a free Berlin and a statement as merely political rhetoric. that led Gorbachev, in 1989, to effectively democratic Federal Republic symbolized, In the longer term, however, the speech renounce the Brezhnev Doctrine that, in and then clearly connected with his had a signiﬁcant, strategic impact. As he turn, paved the way for the fall of the Wall audience when he described his hopes for had done so many times in the United and the GDR. making headway in East-West relations States, Reagan went over the heads of the In the end, then, Gorbachev did help in his negotiations with the new Soviet German political elite, and refurbished “tear” down the Berlin Wall and both he and leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. He then threw America’s link with the people of Berlin Ronald Reagan deserve much of the credit. down the gauntlet, saying that if the Soviet and Germany as a whole, both East leadership was really interested in ending and West. As always, his message was Richard Burt served as U.S. Ambassador the Cold War, it needed to demonstrate clear and simple: the Wall was a human to the Federal Republic of Germany from this through concrete action: “Mr. atrocity and the Russians bore ultimate 1985 to 1989 and is a Board Director of Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” responsibility for it. the Atlantic Council of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 49 Frederick Kempe interviews Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter and a member of the Atlantic Council International Advisory Board

Who and what won the Cold War? Politburo was exaggeratedly informed of It is an oversimplification to talk of victory, my role by its intelligence services. since no war in the real sense was involved. If one chooses to do so, then clearly freedom They believed you did it? won. This was the greatest upheaval in favor Yes, that is a fact. In fact, they had the of freedom, and a predominantly peaceful whole scenario – namely that I got Cardinal one, since 1848, so almost 150 years later. Krol, the Polish-American, to organize And it created an altogether new setting for the American episcopate. Then on that scores of millions of people, depending on basis, the American episcopate allegedly how far you want to count. conspired with the German episcopates. Certainly 200 million Central Europeans, And the two episcopates then set in motion or thereabouts, and a significant number this election of Wojtyła. of what used to be called “Soviet citizens” suddenly were living in countries of their What was your role? own national identity, not in all cases My role was prayerful. (Laughter.) I democracies, but still more free of foreign think, nonetheless, there is no doubt that domination than before. So freedom the choice of a Polish Pope absolutely certainly won. transformed the political climate in Poland. All of the East European countries were So who should we associate most with restless and dissatisfied. But all of them that cause? were also intimidated after the Soviets I think it is fair to say that America led in put down the Hungarian revolution and terms of active support and led the Western the Czechoslovak Spring. There was fear alliance in that support. But it is also fair and intimidation and also penetration of to say that the actual mechanics – the societies by agents, so that one never could operational mechanics of mentoring this quite trust one’s neighbors. process, keeping it within bounds and The Pope’s arrival in Poland showed that making it possible – belong to Bush Sr. and everyone was enthusiastic about what he Kohl in the first instance, and much more symbolized and was prepared to endorse hesitantly to Thatcher and Mitterrand, it openly. And the regime discovered Pope John Paul II shakes hands with Zbigniew Brzezinski, former who feared German unification. In the that it was naked, in effect isolated. That National Security Advisor to background of all of this, patronizing it, transformed the nature of the political President Jimmy Carter (1983) blessing it and somewhat inspiring it, was context and gave birth shortly thereafter to Pope John Paul II. Solidarity. And what was Solidarity? It was a word that defined the new reality that there You were National Security Advisor in is national solidarity against a foreign- 1978. Polish Cardinal Karol Wojtyła imposed regime that is anti-democratic. was elected Pope John Paul II the same And that contagion spread from Poland year. The Soviets, of course, thought into the region, particularly Czechoslovakia you orchestrated this. What was your and Hungary, thereby isolating East reaction and role at the time? And what Germany. That precipitated the fall of the role do you think the naming of a Polish Wall, a night of particular gratification Pope had on the Cold War? for me because back in 1963 I wrote a I wish I had orchestrated it. I am certainly book entitled, Alternative to Partition. delighted that it happened without my And the whole thesis of the book was: let orchestration. But it is true that the us engage in peaceful engagement with

50 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 51 Absolutely. And we had very clear In 1988, you were Co-Chairman of the INTERVIEW evidence to that effect from our own Bush national security advisory task ZBIGNIEW intelligence, from the deployment of force. You formally endorsed Bush for Soviet forces around Poland, from the President, a break with the Democratic BRZEZINSKI demands that the Soviets made of the Party. And you also published a book, Polish communist government. Grand Failure, where you predicted That precipitated two developments, the failure of Gorbachev’s reforms. which unintentionally reinforced each Why, as a Democrat, did you turn to Central Europe, but leave East Germany other. The Polish communist regime, the Republican Party and Bush at this out of it, thereby isolating East Germany headed by Secretary Kania, strongly critical time? by promoting change within the most objected to Brezhnev about the so-called Because it was a critical time. There was vulnerable part of the Soviet Bloc. And maneuvers to be held in Poland, saying very little evidence that [Democratic eventually, it will lead to the collapse of the that this could create a very volatile candidate Michael] Dukakis understood the East German regime and to a new Europe, situation. And Carter, at the same strategic and geopolitical dimensions of the namely no longer partitioned. time, sent a message via the hotline to crisis in the Soviet Bloc, whereas Bush had a Brezhnev saying that this could have the good grasp of it. And as events subsequently Does it go too far to say that German gravest consequences for the American- showed, he actually did play it masterfully. I unification wouldn’t have happened, Soviet relationship, and while we do not very much doubt Dukakis would have been the Cold War wouldn’t have ended, were intend ourselves to intervene in Polish as skillful. it not for the Poles? affairs, we will take the gravest view of a Well, there is no doubt that without what Soviet intervention. What was the role of individuals versus happened in Poland, we wouldn’t have And that was done by an administration underlying trends? a situation in which the East German that was already engaged in supporting the It is almost a basic law that historical regime was isolated and unable to control resistance in Afghanistan. There is no way spontaneity operates through the its people, who were streaming through that the Soviets could take that lightly. movement of social forces and the Hungary into the West and who were For symbolic purposes, and also to convey surfacing of key catalytic individuals. increasingly associating themselves with a sense of urgency, it was sent by the That combination always arises. It is the restlessness that was just immediately to hotline directly from the White House to interaction of these two dynamics that the east of East Germany, namely in Poland, the Kremlin. then results in transformation. Who would the Czech Republic and Hungary. That is have thought that a simple and personally sheer geopolitics. Do you think you averted a poor shipyard worker, Lech Walesa, and a Eventually, the Soviet Bloc certainly Soviet invasion? “bohemian” playwright in Prague [Václav would have collapsed anyway. But when They were going to go in. We now have a Havel] would emerge as the great symbols and how and whether so peacefully, we will lot of documentation regarding the plans of an upheaval that destroyed an empire? never know. and which troops were going to enter from Who would have thought that a where. I think one or two East German surprisingly sophisticated, intelligent What was the role of Soviet failure in divisions were going to be used. Two or so and flexible son of a peasant in Southern Afghanistan in the 1980s? Czech divisions were going to be used. The Russia, Mikhail Gorbachev, would then It demonstrated two things: the increasing rest were going to be Soviet divisions, both acquire the skill and flexibility to enable lack of Soviet self-restraint and, at the same from East Germany and from the territory him to set in motion belated, and ultimately time, the limits of their military capability. of the then-existing Soviet Union. And the unsuccessful, reforms in the Soviet Union They could not achieve what seemed to be date was even set, which was the first week that contributed to the collapse of the will initially a very easy and attainable victory. of December 1980. to resist within the Soviet elite? Now, what specifically at that given What was the U.S.’s role in that moment made Brezhnev postpone, I do not How would you define Gorbachev’s Soviet failure? know. But certainly our actions complicated role? Both the Carter and the Reagan his sense that he had freedom of action. He was terribly important in legitimizing administrations pursued exactly the Beyond that, the nature of the sanctions among the Soviet elite the progressive same policy, except that the Reagan adopted against the Soviet Union following fragmentation of Soviet authority, historical administration greatly increased the the invasion of Afghanistan had to make self-confidence, sense of direction and will scale of the external assistance, as we the Soviets ask themselves, what is it to resist, or even to persist. were in office for just one year of the that we might do if they invade Poland? war. Both administrations made certain They had to ask themselves that. And At the time, the common thinking was that this would not be a cost-free victory there is no doubt that they didn’t like the that the Soviet Union was a permanent for the Soviets because it would be sanctions that we adopted, including one fixture of the international scene. very destabilizing for the international particularly, which was very symbolic Well, I never thought that. system that you can invade and occupy but painful: namely depriving them of another country, without any negative the opportunity to match Hitler’s 1936 Did you foresee the collapse? consequences for oneself. Olympics with the 1980 Moscow Olympics, No. But ever since I was a graduate student, which we boycotted. I was convinced that the Soviet empire was As the Carter administration was in They also had to question the wisdom of increasingly ahistorical in the sense that it its final weeks in the 1980s, was there the use of force with all of its unpredictable really was an empire involving domination a danger of Soviet military invasion of consequences one year after using force in by one national identity over a set of other Poland to end the Solidarity movement? Afghanistan without success. national identities. That one national

52 The Atlantic Council joint responses to other problems. While And the last point to be added here: not a it is not an ideal situation, it is far better single one of the newly independent states “…clearly than what would prevail if we had simply wants to be part of Russia again, not a single let Central Europe drift indecisively until one. So I think the course for Russia is self- freedom won” such time as Russia was powerful enough evident. And we ought to facilitate it, but to try to restore the status quo ante-1989. not feed their imperial aspirations. We must be prudently clear-cut as to what our vital How do we deal with Russia now? interests are regarding, let’s say, Ukraine identity was stronger and tougher, but not We patiently try to work with the Russians and Georgia. And they are essentially that omnipotent. And over time, its will, its while encouraging their accommodation they remain independent, not necessarily cohesion and its intelligence was sapped. to their new historical context. That is to members of NATO, maybe not even And this is why the fall of the Soviet Union say, they have to digest the fact that they, ready for quite a while to be members was so natural and so relatively bloodless – like the British or the French, or even more of the European Union. But they must because it outlived its days. acutely the Germans or the Japanese, can be independent. no longer revert to an imperial past based Why did it collapse when it did? on force. That reality is gone. Is there any lesson from the Cold War Well, I can’t tell you why precisely it And, incidentally, we are learning for today? happened then. It could have happened that, too. Look at our relatively passive One lesson is that the fall of the Wall and 10 years earlier if circumstances were reaction to Soviet planes and tanks for the events of those years were handled different. And it could have happened 10 Venezuela, to Nicaragua’s recognition with sophistication by an engaged America years later if circumstances were different. of Abkhazia or Ossetia and our growing working closely with the Germans, the But it was a conjunction of all of these indifference to communism and Russian British and the French. We need serious events that brought it to a head. ties in Cuba. partners. This is why I am such a strong We are moving beyond our imperial advocate of there being a European voice What did we do wrong after the Cold era and I think that is all good. But if the to which we are prepared to listen. But it is War’s end? Russians think they are going to gain up to the Europeans to shape that voice. At I don’t think we did many things wrong. anything by trying to recreate an empire, the moment, we don’t have that. We have a I am not one of those who believes in they will simply isolate themselves more. political vacuum in Europe. psychotherapy as a base for interpreting They will embroil themselves more. And international affairs. And geopolitical they will become a massive national failure Zbigniew Brzezinski was National realities and historical forces are far more in a huge and potentially rich space, which Security Advisor to President Jimmy important than hurt Russian feelings or is bordered in the West by 550 million Carter and is a member of the Atlantic the feigning of hurt feelings. The Russians West Europeans and Central Europeans, Council International Advisory Board. resent what happened because what and, in the East, by a billion-and-a-half He was interviewed by Frederick Kempe, happened deprived them of something increasingly successful Chinese. It is a President and CEO of the Atlantic Council very special, namely the last great empire policy of national suicide. of the United States. in the world. They would like to have it back to the extent that it is possible. The fact of the matter is, however, that there really wasn’t any choice for the West except to include in Europe and in NATO those who would have liked to have been in it and were forcibly deprived of that opportunity and that right. There was no way of stopping that. Also, if they had not been included out of some misguided psychotherapeutic theories regarding how to deal with the Russians, then we would have today not just Georgia already hit hard by military force, Ukraine continuously threatened, but we would have Estonia and other Baltic countries being subjected to barrages reminiscent of Hitler’s claims that the Sudeten Germans needed protection. You would have the Poles beleaguered by the Russians like the Ukrainians or the Georgians already are. And we would have probably mounting hostility between the East and the West, which fortunately is now signiﬁcantly reduced and limited to a couple of speciﬁc Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin (left) and U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski (right) play a issues, but which at the same time coexist game of chess at the Camp David Summit, Maryland, September 1978. Looking on are (center, left to right): with a lot of contacts, cooperation and Israeli Ambassador Simcha Dinitz, Israeli General Efran Ponan, and Begin’s Press Secretary Dan Patir

The Atlantic Council 53 Germany’s Revolution, Uniﬁcation and America

54 The Atlantic Council hen George H.W. Bush The fall of the Berlin Wall, November 1989 took office in January 1989, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s “New Thinking” was takingW hold in Poland and Hungary. The debate over whether the “German Question” could be resolved continued among politicians in the Federal Republic of Germany. No one expected German unification anytime soon. In fact, Chancellor Helmut Kohl did not expect it within his lifetime. But it was in East Berlin where events unfurled at a breathtakingly fast pace and the promise of a different course began. The first change sought was the replacement of Erich Honecker under the slogan for renewal of the German Democratic Republic (GDR). The 1990 Communist Party Congress seemed the most likely time for East Germany to join Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost policies of economic restructuring and openness. Change turned on the East German travel law. After 28 years of captivity – a life behind the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain – East Germans had had enough. They wanted, as President John F. Kennedy said, to feel that “free men everywhere would be proud to call themselves Berliners,” to be free themselves. They wanted Gorbachev to heed President Ronald Reagan’s call to “tear down this wall.” On May 4, the Hungarians cut the fence along the border that formed the Iron Curtain. Millions of East Germans took to the streets, seeking emigration through Hungary to the West. They were voting with their feet. Three days later, the May 7 municipal elections were challenged as a fraud and demonstrations protesting them stirred up the opposition. On June 4 in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, the Chinese crushed the “counterrevolutionaries” and Honecker threatened to do the same in East Germany. Asylum-seeking East Germans stormed the West German embassies in Prague and Budapest; their release to the West feeding the J. D. Bindenagel, former U.S. fire of revolution. By October 9 the protests in Leipzig remained non- violent, but only with the intervention of Minister to the GDR, recalls Gwandhaus Orchestra Conductor Kurt Masur and the tolerance of the local communists. Honecker failed to crush the the events of November 9 counterrevolutionaries and was ousted himself on October 18. Days later, through the night of November 9, 1989, the world held its breath. Would the Soviets intervene to

The Atlantic Council 55 Taking a hammer to the Wall, November 12, 1989 crush the German revolutionaries? In the interim, the wave of fleeing The problem of fleeing East Germans At the American Embassy in East Germans was reaching tidal-wave still loomed large on November 9. What Berlin, the Red Army’s action or inaction, proportions and fast approaching the would Vogel tell me now? with a million soldiers stationed at the mark for Soviet intervention of one As we drove towards West Berlin’s heart German-German border, would decide million, as discussed by Secretary James at the Ku’Damm, Vogel told me that the the future. Coupled with the all-seeing, Baker and Eduard Shevardnadze in GDR attorney’s Kollegium had met on all-knowing East German secret police, Jackson Hole in September. November 7-8 and proposed additional the Stasi, it was hard to see how freedom In August, Ambassador Barkley and I changes to the GDR travel law to allow could trump military force. Yet history on had visited Vogel at his modest home on for freer travel. Vogel thought the new this day would rewrite itself. Lake Schwerinsee. He told us that the changes, not yet announced, would satisfy November 9 began calmly. Though Hungarians would very soon allow several East Germans’ demand for more freedom Gorbachev had long ago departed Berlin hundred East Germans in Hungary to of travel. I returned to the Embassy with after celebrating East Germany’s 40 years, escape to the West. He also told us that this hot information. he left warning of the necessity for glasnost and perestroika: “Those who come too late will be punished by history.” (Wer zu At the end of the street near the spat kommt, den bestraft das Leben.) That saying became another act of providence. As the day was ending, the mayors of checkpoint, dozens of Germans East and West Berlin, the Allied Military Commanders, East German spy-swapping stood at the barrier shouting and Honecker lawyer Wolfgang Vogel gathered at an Aspen Institute Berlin in March the Hungarians had been the When I arrived, I found a greatly reception hosted by Director David first Eastern Bloc state to sign the UN excited political section. The East Anderson. At the end of the reception, Convention on Refugees. Consequently, German government spokesman, Vogel asked me for a ride to his car, which they informed East Germany that its Guenther Schabowski, had told the world was parked in West Berlin. I was eager to fleeing citizens would be treated as that the Politburo had agreed to more hear his assessment of the East German refugees and to let them flee to the West. changes in the travel law. East Germans reaction to the November 6 changes to When on August 19, at a pan-European could get visitor visas quickly for access to the East German travel law; changes picnic in Hungary, some 600 East Germans the West from their local “People’s Police” that had been rejected by thousands of fled into Austria, Moscow did not react. and that the GDR would open a new demonstrators throughout the country.

56 The Atlantic Council processing center to handle emigration cases immediately. The vagueness of the actual information about the process paved the path to wide interpretation – and inspired the revolution. When NBC anchorman Tom Brokaw asked Schabowski if the ruling meant the Berlin Wall was open, Schabowski reportedly said: “Yes.” The East Germans heard: “Travel to the West is possible immediately.” Tom Brokaw called Garrick Utley, editor at NBC in New York, and Utley approved the broadcast of the story. For the next hour and a half Brokaw told television viewers around the world that the Berlin Wall was open, though none of us on the ground had confirmed the story or knew how the East Germans planned Citizens stand in an open section of the Wall, to implement it. November 10, 1989, East Berlin The revolution was in full swing and spinning out of control. Embassy any wall jumpers. Defense of the boarder Krenz government to the people, and to Political Counselor Jon Greenwald sent meant shoot-to-kill. their demand for freedom. one embassy political officer, Heather Across from the checkpoint and safely That night led to free elections in East Troutman, directly to Checkpoint in the West, a TV camera crew, its light Germany on March 18, 1990 and German Charlie and another, Imre Lipping, to illuminating the bridge that divided the unification on October 3, 1990. That night, the GDR press center to get the text of Cold War world, awaited carnage. freedom won. the statement. Meanwhile, the first East I rushed through the last few blocks By November 9, 1989, East Germany’s Germans approached the Berlin Wall at home and turned on the television to days were limited. Only the anticipated Checkpoint Charlie and attempted to watch what the rest of the world was intervention by the Soviets would cross without visas, only to be turned watching from the safety of their sofas. I have prolonged its agony. Perhaps away by the guards and told to get called Ambassador Richard Barkley, Jon unintentionally, Gorbachev’s glasnost and visas from the local police. For now, it Greenwald, and Harry Gilmore. perestroika positioned him in a catch-22: seemed that the guards could keep The guards gave way. A wave of either he would risk his policies by things under control. East Berliners streamed through the intervening militarily in East Germany, Later, with Schabowski’s speech text Bornholmerstrasse checkpoint. As their or he would lose the German Democratic in hand, we translated and cabled it to pictures flashed around the world on Republic to a unified Germany. Washington. I spoke to the White House television, they shouted, “freedom!” The My counterpart, the Deputy Situation Room and State Department Berlin Wall was breached. Ambassador, at the Soviet Embassy Operations Center to ensure they had But I wondered, with a sinking in East Berlin, Minister Dr. Igor F. the report and to update them on the feeling, did they have visas? What of the Maximytschew later shed light on this latest developments. Then I called the requirement? Who was in charge? conflict. It was he who waited to inform American Minister in West Berlin, Harry In the morning, following my third- Moscow of the events on the ground in Gilmore, and shared my view that the grade daughter’s routine van trip to Berlin, which were then presented as East Germans would first have to get school in West Berlin, I stopped at the a fait accompli. His reasons were clear: their visas and then be able to head to Bornholmerstrasse Checkpoint. By now, Soviet Ambassador Kotschemassow West Berlin. masses of people had gathered at the went to sleep after the Schabowski press Arriving in the East Berlin suburb gates, crossing from east to west, from conference; the Soviet Embassy had no of Pankow at around 10:00 pm, I west to east. further inside information because all of was surprised to find East German, While I watched, Radio DDR Eins their GDR contacts went silent; to alert plasticized-pressed wood Trabant announced that visas would be required lower-level Soviet officials to a situation automobiles seemingly abandoned near to travel from East to West starting at whose change of course depended upon the Bornholmerstrasse Checkpoint that 8:00 am that morning, November 10. As military intervention was too risky; and crossed over the S-Bahn train into panic spread, the crowd grew steadily intervention itself could have resulted in a West Berlin. larger, pressing against the gate. The fear Tiananmen Square solution. Furthermore At the end of the street near the of being shut in, of having missed the and consequently, Maximytschew checkpoint, dozens of Germans stood chance to see West Berlin before the GDR followed Gorbachev’s instruction not to at the barrier shouting at the guards shut the gate, was palatable. dramatize the situation and decided to defending the crossing. The barracks Shortly before 8:00 am, the visa inform Moscow in the morning. were filled with armed border police, requirement deadline was extended until fire hoses, like those used later at the noon. The noon deadline became Monday J.D. Bindenagel is Vice President Brandenburg Gate, were carefully laid morning. At that point, the authority and for Community, Government, and out like venomous snakes, ready to repel legitimacy of the GDR passed from the International Affairs at DePaul University.

The Atlantic Council 57 Frederick Kempe interviews Colin Powell, former U.S. Secretary of State

You were the chairman of the Joint recognized that inadequacy. He thought, Chiefs on the day that the Wall came “I can fix this,” but he could not. I will tumbling down. What’s your take on always respect Gorbachev and consider what brought the Cold War’s end? him a friend and a major historic figure I credit the inadequacy, inefficiency because he was there at the right time. and ultimately the failure of the Soviet But he had to be met by people like Communist system of economics and Reagan, Thatcher and Kohl. governance. Beyond that, we executed a successful strategy of containment for How much credit should history give all those years. It took a lot of people, Reagan for ending the Cold War? over time to push the Soviet Union over I give him a lot of credit. The Cold War’s the edge. We were blessed with wise end was coming anyway, but it would not leadership at a crucial moment. Ronald have happened when and how it did if Reagan called the Soviets the “Evil Reagan had not been there at that time Empire,” but he was secure enough in to work with Gorbachev and to help who he was and in America’s strength Gorbachev as he did. We were trying that he was willing to engage closely the to help him save the Soviet Union. We leaders of that so-called Evil Empire. weren’t saying you have to give up the Soviet Union. We just said communism is You helped organize five summits a disaster. between Gorbachev and Reagan. What was Reagan’s approach to Gorbachev? That’s an important distinction. Reagan’s greatest desire during that I’ll never forget the last meeting that period was not to shove it in Gorbachev’s we had with Gorbachev at Governor’s face or to shove it in the Russians’ face Island in December 1988. It was after the that they were failing, but to show them election, so George H.W. Bush was the a better way. He was always saying, President-elect and he joined Reagan “Gosh, if I can only take Gorbachev out for the meeting. We weren’t looking for to California and show him the ranch. If another summit with Gorbachev, but only I could take Gorbachev to our auto Gorbachev had come to speak to the plants in Detroit and show him what real United Nations and he wanted it. industry looks like. If only I could show Brent Scowcroft was there as the new him our homes and our communities.” National Security Advisor to replace me. Reagan was so proud of America. He It was mostly a chance for Gorbachev thought he could make a more powerful to say goodbye to Reagan and hello to point with the Soviet leadership by President Bush. It was warm and friendly. showing them our accomplishments in The Russians had just announced the comparison to their own. unilateral troop reduction at the U.N. Don’t forget that the Soviet Union and an hour earlier, before Gorbachev got the U.S. were similar in their natural on a ferry to come over and see us. At resources and population size. So it was one point President-elect Bush said to the inadequacy of the system that was the Gorbachev, “Well how do you think it’s all Soviet Union’s undoing, and Gorbachev going to turn out?” And Gorbachev looked

58 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 59 February 19, 1988, Washington, DC: President Reagan meets with Secretary of State George Schultz, in the Oval Ofﬁce. Lt. Gen. Colin Powell, National Security Advisor, and White House Chief of Staff Howard Baker are also in attendance

our intelligence agencies were telling us about its economic and military strength. They had a lot of guns but they were busted on butter. And in the 20th century, butter was as important as guns. Gorbachev had two goals: to preserve the Soviet Union and to end the Cold War because it was bankrupting them.

at him and said, “Not even Jesus Christ You were a young officer in Germany “ We were knows the answer to that.” around the time that the Berlin Wall was built in a place called Gelnhausen. Reagan must have loved that. They’ve since named a street for you blessed He smiled. I could almost hear my boss there. What were your impressions of saying, silently to himself, “I told you he the Cold War then? with wise was a Christian! I told you!” Gorbachev I was just a 21-year-old second then told us that when he took over in lieutenant out of New York, having just 1985, everybody said, “Wonderful! We finished infantry school. We all knew leadership need a revolution and they were all our jobs. When the balloon went up, my applauding. And then two years later in job was to race to our positions at the at a crucial 1987, when I started to do things with Fulda Gap and beat the crap out of the perestroika and glasnost and things got Russians as they came through. That more difficult, the applause died down a was it. We didn’t need to know much moment” bit. And now it’s 1989; the revolution is more. I still remember being taken up here and nobody is applauding. But still to the Fulda Gap and seeing it for the we’re going to have a revolution.” I found first time. It’s a huge, gorgeous valley. that very revealing, and I believed him. I still remember being shown where my position was between a couple of You were one of the first to predict the trees where we would stop the Russian Cold War’s end. Army. I had a mission to guard one of the I went back to the Army and was 280-milimeter atomic cannons that we commander of all deployed forces in the hauled around Germany with a truck. United States. I gave a speech in May It fired nuclear shells. It was a huge, 1989, several months before the Wall fell long thing. We also had smaller atomic in November, to all of the senior Army weapons called Davy Crockett’s. They generals. Everything they had done for looked like bazookas and were mounted the previous 40 years rested on there on jeeps. It was an absolutely silly being a Soviet Union. I told them, “The weapon with a couple of miles’ range. bear looks benign,” and that we were “on our way to losing our best enemy.” I told It all seems so unimaginable now. them that if we opened NATO tomorrow The word nuclear was, in 1961, magic to new members, we would have several and all the services had to have their new applicants on our agenda within a own nuclear programs. And once you week – Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, had a nuclear weapons program, you Yugoslavia, maybe Estonia, Latvia, had to have all ranges. So that’s what Lithuanian, maybe even Ukraine.” containment looked like.

Was Gorbachev naïve in thinking he What role did military strength play in could reform the system? winning the Cold War? I would never call him naïve. He really It was crucial. It made it clear to the believed in the Soviet Union. He thinks Soviets that there would be no walk one of the greatest disasters that ever in the woods and there would be war befell the Russian people was the collapse if they ever tried to come to Western of the Soviet Union. He really thought Europe. Now we can wonder whether we he could save it. But it became clear could have stopped them, and whether over time that it was not sustainable. they had the military capabilities we It was rotten, notwithstanding what attributed to them.

60 The Atlantic Council What did you think of your enemy – the future is education, and what’s most say to these newly freed countries that and know about them? important now is properly educating our you’ve closed down NATO? No, we did the In 1986, I was promoted to Lieutenant young people for our new challenges. right thing by saying you have to meet our General and given command of the 5th standards and then you can come in. United States Corps in Germany. I was What happens with China? Does China back at the same Fulda Gap, except now I become our enemy in this new world? What do we do now about Russia – had 75,000 soldiers under my command Absolutely not. What did they get from and about Georgia and Ukraine in and not 40. The mission remained being our enemy before? They get much that context? unchanged for more than three decades: more out of selling us goods at Wal-Mart. We need to show the Russians more don’t let the Russian army come through. It makes no sense to them to become respect – and at the same time press them My job was to stop an organization our enemy. Yet in one of the greatest on the issues we consider important. called the 8th Guards Army, headed by historical ironies in all of recorded I would move very, very carefully on General Achalov. I researched him very history, a so-called undeveloped country Georgia and Ukraine, which aren’t ready carefully. He was a paratrooper who is financing the profligacy of the largest, for entry into NATO at this point. We also had been injured, and they made him most powerful country in the world. And need to understand that Russia has far commander of an armored unit. I kept where do they get the money to buy our less capability to be a threat to anybody. his picture on my desk and I used it to paper? By selling us stuff at Wal-Mart. Russia is one-half the size of the Soviet brief congressmen who were visiting and It’s incredible. Union. It has an ageing and declining wanted to know why I needed so much population through normal demographic money. Rather than give a PowerPoint In this new world, what’s the role of attrition – because of bad healthcare, too presentation, which hadn’t been invented NATO? Of military power? much drinking, too much smoking, and in those days, I would just point at the It’s hard to close down a club when people low birth rate. They don’t have what we picture and say, “There’s the reason – keep asking for membership applications. have that keeps our system vibrant, and Achalov. He’s one hour away with the 8th I’m a big Atlanticist. I’m a supporter of that’s immigration. They are an energy Guards Army and behind him, there are NATO, but NATO has to adapt to the provider and natural resource provider, three other armies stacked up.” times. It will also be difficult to guide but if you go to Kmart or Wal-Mart, you’re because it is a group of democracies. Yet not going to see any Russian products. Could you have stopped them? it’s given us a level of interoperability that Twenty years after the Cold War, they Not without nuclear weapons, which we other groups of countries lack that we can don’t make anything anybody wants would have had to use by the third day and use when we want to act together. When except gas, oil and minerals. then we would have been off and running we wanted to help the Kurds in northern in a nuclear world war. The Soviets knew Iraq, we could work off the same maps What concerns you most about the that, too. The generals on both sides knew, and use the same procedures. The same future? deep down in their hearts, “This can never was true when we fought the Gulf War. What I’m not worried about is a world be allowed to happen.” We didn’t have to train anybody to a new war. What I’m not worried about is a system of command and control because return to some superpower military How are the challenges today different we took the European war and brought it contest because there are no longer than they were during that period? to the desert. Desert Storm was nothing any peer threats to the United States In my early years of military service, I more than the battle we were planning to of America. I am worried about the was involved in contests that were about fight with the Soviets, except with no trees instability we see manifested in places containment and military superiority and no hills. like Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and regional wars – Korea, Vietnam. The and Iran. I think the Alliance has a role most powerful trend right now is not Did we miss a chance to more deeply to play in dealing with these kinds of so much a political trend or a military integrate the Russians after the Cold issues. I am deeply concerned about trend. It’s about economics and the War? Must we bear part of that blame? poverty throughout the world. I am creation of wealth. The nations that are It was extremely difficult and tricky to concerned about infectious diseases. increasingly successful in the world are figure out what to do with respect to I am concerned about all the various those that are doing something about the new Russian Federation after the problems that create failed states and creating wealth. We are experiencing the Cold War. We had to be very careful in the angry people that produces. It greatest explosion of advancement in expanding NATO in ways that did not takes more money, and it takes more the middle class throughout the world provoke the Russians. But we did not considered judgment. The Atlantic that the world has ever seen. Hundreds make serious mistakes because the Community would do well to redirect of millions of Chinese who rode the same Alliance is enlarged there and Russia is more of its energies to these issues. bicycles and wore the same clothes and not our enemy. hoped they might have a sewing machine Colin Powell was the 65th U.S. Secretary in their lives are now in the middle class. Was enlargement of NATO a good idea? of State, serving under President George That changes everything. The weapon of I don’t think we had a choice. Will you W. Bush.

The Atlantic Council 61 Welcome to Freedom

Frederick Taylor recalls the combination of events that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall

62 The Atlantic Council hen it comes to offering there was President Reagan’s pugnacious fitfully sunny Thursday morning in the explanations for any demand at the Brandenburg Gate in capital of the communist-ruled German major historical event, June 1987 for Russian leader Mikhail Democratic Republic (GDR), with the there is, of course, the Gorbachev to “tear down that Wall!” mercury climbing slowly to 10°C (50°F). short version and the long. expressing a renewed, active American The date is November 9, 1989. WFor the fall of the Berlin Wall, the long interest in the liberation of countries This four-person committee – two version would have to follow minutely long-dominated by the Soviet empire. civilians, two Stasi officers – is under the process of political, military and The short version – the one we must intense pressure to solve a crucial economic decay that had served to prefer here – centers on a single meeting of undermine the communist project over a government committee in East Berlin. decades before 1989. A milestone on The location: a ministry building in President Reagan gives a thumbs-up sign that road was the Helsinki agreement of the Mauerstrasse, yards from the lethal after speaking at the Brandenburg Gate. With him is West German Chancellor 1975, which opened a door for opposition fortified wall that had divided East from Helmut Kohl (right) and Phillip Jenninger, movements in the Eastern Bloc. And then West Berlin since August 1961. It is a the President of the Bundestag (left)

The Atlantic Council 63 The press conference that follows will remain one of the most avidly discussed events in modern history problem. That same morning, the insisted that the Wall could remain “for official newspaper, Neues Deutschland, fifty or a hundred years” to come. has published an appeal, not from the By November, however, Honecker is communist leadership but from a group of yesterday’s man. On October 18 he was reformists and dissidents who would just a replaced, with Gorbachev’s support, few months earlier have been rewarded for by 52-year-old Egon Krenz. This new their opinions with jail terms rather than “reformist” government is overwhelmed column inches. “We are all deeply uneasy,” by intractable political and economic they write. “We see thousands who are crises. It has, therefore, instructed that daily leaving our country... We beg you, any issues that can be resolved, must be stay in your homeland, stay with us.” resolved. Among these is the “exit visa The Berlin Wall is still in place – problem.” Hence the committee’s urgent officially, the communist regime is still deliberations in the Mauerstrasse this planning to upgrade the hated barrier with chilly November morning. new, computerized security technology. The committee obediently comes up So, why this heartfelt appeal? with a more liberal but still “temporary” First reason: after more than a quarter- exit visa program; one that recognizes century of being trapped in their tight little current realities but will, it hopes, provide Soviet-sponsored state, on one side by a a degree of order. East Germans will now lethally fortified border with West Germany, be able to leave freely – if they first acquire on the other by the Wall built around West a permit. This will normally be granted Berlin (East Germans’ only escape-hatch automatically. until it was sealed in 1961), East Germany’s Once the draft is agreed, the paperwork 16 million people can, by November 1989, is couriered over to the Politburo building. leave for the West if they want. And this, General Secretary Krenz assures his despite the roundabout routes and technical colleagues that this is the only solution illegalities involved, they are proceeding, in to the exit visa problem. It is also what their tens of thousands, to do. The election their protectors in Moscow want. The of a part-democratic government in Poland, arrangement is duly nodded through. the opening of the previously fortified border Meanwhile, the leadership’s spokesman, between communist Hungary and capitalist an affable-seeming Berliner named Günther Austria, and most recently the re-opening Schabowski, is due to give a press conference of the border with Czechoslovakia, have at East Berlin’s International Press Centre. brought the crisis to a head. Schabowski drops by Krenz’s office and The second reason? East Germany is requests an update on developments. bankrupt. For years it has posed as the This the General Secretary supplies, also most prosperous communist country. presenting him with a copy of the new exit This self-flattery has concealed low visa regulations for reference purposes. productivity, decaying infrastructure, and The early-evening press conference a permanent export/import deficit. Only that follows will remain one of the most generous subsidies by the Soviet Union avidly discussed events in modern history. and, as the 1980s wore on, loans from Is what happens there a deliberate Western banks, have enabled the GDR to manipulation or just an inadvertent survive. For years the state’s planners have blunder? Arguably, it doesn’t matter much, warned of impending disaster. The ageing because it is not really what Schabowski East German leadership, ideologically says that will condition subsequent fundamentalist to the last, has chosen to events, but how others interpret it and ignore them. Now it is too late. communicate it to the world. At the beginning of the year, the regime Having outlined the exit visa proposal, had still been headed by Erich Honecker, the final point on a crowded agenda, a a 77-year-old hardliner who presided visibly weary Schabowski takes questions. over the original construction of the There will be no preconditions for travel, Citizens hold a German flag displaying Berlin Wall. Determined to mount a huge he agrees. But, asks ABC’s Tom Brokaw, “Unity” as they cross the newly opened celebration of the GDR’s 40th anniversary when will this new arrangement come checkpoint between East and West Berlin at the Brandenburg Gate in October 1989, Honecker publicly into effect? “Immediately,” Schabowski

64 The Atlantic Council answers incorrectly. In fact, it is not valid until the next day, November 10. Contrary to legend, this exchange, while intriguing, causes no immediate sensation. Only after the conference is over do the journalists begin to discuss its full meaning. Soon the Associated Press reporter chooses his “angle.” According to Politburo spokesman Schabowski, his wire declares, East Germany is opening its borders. The phrase catches on. Everyone starts to use it. Just over an hour after Schabowski’s announcement, the respected ARD News on West German television leads its 8:00 p.m. bulletin with those same words: “The GDR is opening its borders.” It quickly becomes clear that East Berliners are watching, not the tame communist news, but the program beamed over the Wall from the West. Within minutes, they arrive at checkpoints, explaining that they have heard the border is open. They are told to first apply for a visa. The offices will be open tomorrow. East German TV hastily reaffirms this. Visas must be applied for in an orderly fashion. The crowds pay no attention. They continue to besiege the checkpoints in ever-greater numbers. Most East Germans had meekly complied with the building of the Wall 28 years earlier, but now they are determined to assert their rights. They are no longer afraid of their government. As for the new generation of communist leaders, they are no angels, but neither are they old-style mass-murderers. When Stasi Minister Erich Mielke – a Stalinist veteran, shortly to celebrate his 82nd birthday – calls Krenz, his new boss refuses to sanction force. To let the steam out of things at the border, a few pushier types can be let through. However, to deter the supposedly more docile majority, such people’s passports will be stamped “no right of return.” This hopelessly unrealistic attempt to retain control merely shows East Berliners the rewards of persistence. Just after 11:00 p.m., at the Bornholmer Strasse checkpoint, the crowd overwhelms the unresisting border guards, pushes aside the barrier, and gleefully swarms across the railway bridge to West Berlin. Within hours, Berlin, east and west, is one big party. Someone in an East Berlin bar quips, with sour native wit: “So… they built the Wall to stop people leaving – and now they’re tearing it down to stop people leaving. There’s logic for you.” Or, as the less cynical world at large would have it: “Welcome to freedom.”

Frederick Taylor is a historian and author of The Berlin Wall.

The Atlantic Council 65 Former National Security Advisor Horst M. Teltschik talks to David Marsh about the complexities of the uniﬁcation process

orst Teltschik, Chancellor government’s messages to the rest of the that German unity would damage Britain’s Helmut Kohl’s right-hand world had to be geared, at least partly, to interests – that this did not imply any fast- man during the frenetic what other countries wanted to hear. track route to unification. period of German unification, As a result, Teltschik found himself as fulfilled an extraordinary Chancellor Kohl’s central prism and reflector The four powers all had somewhat Hcombination of roles: governmental in a looking glass world that could have differing views on reunification, but coordinator, policy sounding board, featured in a spy novel by John Le Carré, the one thing united them. They were often diplomatic go-between and communicator British diplomat-turned-thriller writer who taken aback by the speed with which with foreign governments. Teltschik, a worked in Bonn during the 1960s. Bonn was pushing ahead on German quick-thinking, extrovert foreign policy Born in 1940 in the German-speaking unity, and criticized the Germans for expert, had worked with Kohl since 1972 – Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia, Teltschik this. What is your reaction? 10 years before he became Chancellor. As had a long-standing emotional interest We were being pushed forward by head of the Chancellery department dealing in reunification – and was ahead of his developments on the streets of East with foreign, inner German and security Chancellor in promoting the view, months Germany, not the other way around. Bonn policy, Teltschik was thrust into pole before the fall of the Wall, that German had to speed up the process, for example position in the adventure and intrigue unity was fast approaching the surface of over introducing the D-Mark into East of unification. international politics. He earned Kohl’s Germany, in reaction to the pressure Teltschik is now a youthful 69-year-old wrath when he gave a Bonn newspaper of events. The speed may have been with a seven-year spell behind him as interview in July 1989 saying that the uncomfortable, but it had one advantage board member of the BMW car company “German Question” was moving back with regard to the Soviet Union, which after he left the political scene. During on to the agenda. Teltschik’s statement, I have only recently discovered: it gave the tumultuous events of 1989-90, he which gave the impression that the Moscow only little time to catch up with was far more than simply “his master’s Bonn government was far more active events and react to them. They were voice.” Teltschik was at the center of a in preparing for reunification than was always surprised at the next step. web of complex interchanges with West actually the case, sparked irritation not only Germany’s international counterparties: in the Chancellery, but also with the Free What was the importance of the U.S. in essentially the U.S., Soviet Union, Britain Democratic coalition partners and with the unification saga? and France that had defeated Hitler in the Social Democrat opposition. Teltschik I told Chancellor Kohl that, whatever 1945 and still had control rights over was forced to issue a statement to calm else he decided, one person who always Germany as a whole. the controversy. Only a month later, Kohl needs to know what’s going on is the U.S. Heightening the Byzantine quality of himself said publicly that the “German President. I took care to ensure that Brent these diplomatic manoeuvres was one Question” was “back on the agenda.” But Scowcroft [President George H.W. Bush’s essential fact. The prospect of German he was anxious to tell interlocutors such National Security Advisor] was briefed in unification was highly unpopular as Sir Christopher Mallaby, the British detail at all times. But we clearly had to be among most of Germany’s neighbors. Ambassador to Bonn – who in autumn careful to avoid mistrust and complications Consequently, the West German 1989 believed, like Margaret Thatcher, and so sometimes even the Americans – despite their fundamental support for reunification – were taken by surprise by the speed. Brent used to tell me sometimes of his We believed that full unity would worries that we were moving too fast. How was the U.S. given priority in communications with the Allies? take five to 10 years. That all On the morning of the announcement of the 10-point plan, November 28, 1989, the changed when Kohl visited Dresden Chancellor sent George Bush by coded telex

66 The Atlantic Council Exactly. A few days after November 9, he came to see me and said that he had stood on the Glieneke Bridge [linking Berlin and Potsdam] and had watched the flow of East Berliners visiting the West. He said that, a veteran of several wars, he had never seen so many men crying. “Mr. Teltschik,” he said, “this is the beginning of the reunification of Germany.” Walters reported this view directly to President Bush and to Secretary of State Jim Baker. He was heavily criticized for this, because Baker at the time was not keen on an accelerated move to unification.

What did you think of Gorbachev’s position? Like France and Britain, we realized Gorbachev’s weakness and the way his reform policies might be endangered by the build-up to German unity. But this was an opportunity as well as a threat. Kohl saw this with his phrase: “We must bring in the hay before the storm breaks.” Imagine what would have happened if the coup against Gorbachev had taken place in 1990 and not 1991. This might have stopped reuniﬁcation in its tracks.

What was the significance of Gorbachev’s visit to West Germany in June 1989? We knew that Gorbachev was not in favor of unification. But when he came to see an 11–page letter containing the 10-point Around the time of the 10-point plan, Kohl in June 1989, he signed a declaration plan along with our thoughts on the U.S.- how long did you think unification that twice mentioned self-determination Soviet position. We did not do this with would take to achieve? as a crucial condition for international any other ally. The letter was sent before We believed in late November 1989 full unity affairs. For me, this opened the road to I formally briefed the three Western would take five to 10 years. That all changed unification. After Kohl told the CDU allies, through the U.S., British and the following month when Kohl visited party congress in Bremen in September French ambassadors in Bonn, about two Dresden and realized the full strength of the 1989 that self-determination was driving hours after the speech was made. (Soviet forces behind unification. Dresden was the change in Europe, I was visited by the Ambassador Juli Kvizinsky was briefed turning point; after that, it was clear that Soviet Ambassador who told me this was shortly before the other three.) We knew, unity would happen much faster. not acceptable. I told him that Gorbachev however, that there was no time for the himself had put the issue on the table. letter to be translated and for President You wrote some years ago that, of Bush to read it before the speech was the three Ambassadors in Bonn, U.S. What was your view of Mitterrand’s made. There was even greater reluctance Ambassador Vernon Walters was the attitude? to consult with Mitterrand and Thatcher. most relaxed in his reaction to the When Mitterrand came to see Kohl in Bonn If we had sent the text to any of them 10-point plan. Walters arrived in Bonn in early November 1989, a few days before beforehand, and offered to talk to them in April 1989 after a long military the Wall fell, he stressed the need for France about it, they would have told us that of and intelligence career in which, as a and enlarged Germany to work together to course they supported unification but were young U.S. Army officer, he had visited further European integration. This was the worried about Gorbachev’s position and ruined Berlin in 1945. Shortly after reason why he sent me to Paris in January wanted to discuss the text first. And the he arrived in Bonn, he told German 1990 to discuss political union and also inevitable result would have been that the ministers that Germany would be why in April 1990 a decision was taken to speech would have been delayed – which soon reunified – something hardly advance on the twin track of economic and we didn’t want to happen. anyone believed. monetary union for Europe.

The Atlantic Council 67 Genscher. He seemed to be ready for Kohl’s 10-point unity speech suggested INTERVIEW concessions vis-à-vis the Soviet Union, “confederative structures.” Some HORST M. when Gorbachev was not in fact asking people, such as Genscher, have TELTSCHIK for them. Genscher had six meetings criticized this on the basis that an with [Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard] East-West German confederation was Shevardnadze and in the Chancellor’s an old East German proposal and had Office we never got the files. When Kohl little chance of being realized. held meetings with Gorbachev, we gave We were not in fact in favor of a the Foreign Office the records of the “confederation” which would have set up meeting, but that didn’t happen the other a new status quo in Europe that would way around. When I asked the Foreign not have been sustainable. Our goal was Office State Secretary [Dieter Kastrup] to find a way to unification. We chose for the files, he said Genscher had told the phrase “confederative structures” The British government was plainly him not to send them since he would because it might make things easier behind the curve on unification and inform Chancellor Kohl personally for Gorbachev and because it marked a seemed to make the mistake of giving about the meetings. When I asked Kohl process rather than a concrete goal. priority to its own perceptions of what for information on his meetings with were the U.K.’s own interests, compared Genscher, he would say to me, “Why are Looking back, what did Germany do with what was actually happening on you asking me what went on between right and what did it do wrong in the the streets of East Germany. What is Shevardnadze and Genscher – he never passage to unification? your view now of British policy? tells me anything.” As far as I know, the We got the international aspects right, Britain failed to see how East Germans’ Chancellor’s Office still does not have both on NATO membership and European desire for self-determination was these files. integration. But Germany made mistakes building up unstoppably into momentum over the economics. for reunification. This surprised me But we know that Genscher defended because, in the weeks before the fall of Kohl on several occasions, in private What mistakes were these? the Wall, we had tens of thousands of meetings with Gorbachev and For example, one could argue about the refugees from East Germany coming over Mitterrand, when the Chancellor had exchange rate for bringing in the D-Mark into West Germany via Hungary and then damaged sensitivities in Moscow and into East Germany. This was a political, Czechoslovakia. The borders were open. Paris. This must have been useful. not an economic, decision. It was also This was the beginning of the end for the It is true that Genscher played a role a mistake to resolve property issues in German Democratic Republic. as a lightning conductor. This could the east through restoration to former be supportive. It also helped his own owners, rather than compensation, What was the role of the British position to be an intermediary who was which held up recovery. There was a lot Ambassador? always well-received by the others. But we of talk about rebuilding the East German I respected Christopher Mallaby. He came were never sure what he was going to say. economy. Kohl organized monthly frequently to my office during the period. meetings in the Chancellor’s Office with It was clear that he was under pressure As the head of the Free Democrat about 50 representatives of business from Margaret Thatcher. He knew how coalition party, why was Genscher and labor. We were told by industry Thatcher’s stance was undermining his not given advanced warning about that the West German system had to be own position in Bonn and was generally Genscher’s 10-point plan for unity? exported to East Germany, and then they lowering Britain’s diplomatic importance. The speech was worked out over the would invest. weekend of November 24/25, 1989. The first part of the bargain was How did Margaret Thatcher use We believed he might have publicized enacted – in fact, too much of West her good relations with Mikhail the idea before the speech was made. Germany’s economic bureaucracy was Gorbachev? She met him in 1984 when Genscher did sometimes use the transferred to the East. But the second he came to London, a year before he weekends to give interviews. part, the investment, was not carried became General Secretary, and termed out, because companies came to see him “a man we can do business with.” Did Kohl and Genscher have that they did not need the extra capacity Gorbachev made a point of staying closely differences on neutrality? that East Germany offered. I was aware in touch with Thatcher. There was a lot This was an issue on which Chancellor of all these problems. In autumn 1990, of mutual respect. Before the fall of the Kohl was rock solid. United Germany when I decided to leave government, Wall, Thatcher met him more than we did. would be a member of NATO. Gorbachev I suggested to Kohl he should set up But that changed after November 1989 – asked us in 1990 why we wanted this, a special ministry for driving forward and was one of the reasons why Thatcher since the Soviet Union was no longer an East Germany’s economic recovery. But could not achieve her aim of making enemy. We replied that, with regard to he was not able to do that because of the U.K. the spokesman for Europe on our relationship with Moscow, NATO resistance from the Free Democrats. I general European issues. When the Wall membership was also necessary to lower believe a grand coalition [with the Social came down, the special relationship with the mistrust of our neighbors. Crucially, Democrats] might have agreed that Gorbachev was over. this included Poland which, because necessary step.” of its past, feared it could suffer from What was your view of Hans-Dietrich understandings between the Soviet Horst M. Teltschik served as National Genscher? Union and united Germany unless the Security Advisor to Chancellor Helmut I always had some suspicions regarding Germans were anchored in NATO. Kohl from 1982 to 1990.

68 The Atlantic Council A New Set of Challenges David Marsh looks at Germany’s geopolitical challenges as, once again, perceptions of its strength gain ground

n the Humboldthain district of northern Berlin looms a gigantic World War II bunker modeled on a medieval castle, overlooking a shopping center and embedded into Ithe landscape of a park studded with rose gardens and sedate walkways. The vast, semi-derelict concrete structure, now run by a local cooperative that offers tours for visitors seeking evocative remnants of Berlin’s past, was once topped by a fearsome array of anti-aircraft gunnery designed to keep Allied bombers at bay from Germany’s war-torn capital. On display today are panels illustrating how builder Friedrich Tamms, one of Hitler’s favorite architects, planned to add large ornate windows after Germany’s eventual victory to convert the edifice into a municipal palace for civilian use. Events turned out differently. The Humboldthain bunker succumbed after Soviet troops overran Berlin in April 1945. But Tamms went on to achieve post-war fame as a local authority planner responsible for the remodeling of the center of the Rhineland city of Düsseldorf – a testament to the longevity of German architectural achievement. The tale illustrates some of the characteristics that reduced Germany to the low point of its and Europe’s history – and then raised the country again to its status today as a rebuilt and reforged nation astride the crossroads of a continent. German capability for visionary civil engineering has gone hand-in-hand with often-unsuspected talent for flexibility and improvisation. These have been vital ingredients behind Germany’s progress since 1945: a chronicle of unexpected developments generating better-than- anticipated outcomes from largely unforeseen events. At the close of Hitler’s war, Germany was politically bankrupt and physically shattered, its moral and human infrastructure in ruins – the very epitome of a failed state. As a new era of Soviet-American rivalry dawned in Europe, no one expected that the western Chancellor of West rump of Germany, divided by Cold War Germany, Helmut Kohl confrontation, would emerge strengthened and French President as a client state of the emergent U.S. François Mitterrand superpower – and would rise up, within (left), September 1984 less than 20 years of the end of conflict, as

70 The Atlantic Council the leader of post-war European recovery. No one could believe that the sprawling giant born of late unification in the 19th century, humbled by World War I and comprehensively felled by World War II, would so quickly become an international byword for the disciplines and the doctrines of sound economic management. As the might of the Soviet Union ebbed towards the end of the 1980s, the motley array of European states that had fallen under Communist sway jostled for new bearing and fresh hold in a rapidly changing Europe. Yet, during this period West Germany, the successful rump of a nation that appeared to have become secure with post-1945 division, harbored no visible immediate acquisitive intentions on East Germany, the communist state that had grown up in the mirror image of the Federal Republic. Until – and even for a few brief weeks after – the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the official line of the West German government housed in its admittedly provisional home of Bonn was that German unification would come in its own time, part of the gradual growing together of eastern and western Europe. When, as a journalist for the Financial Times, I interviewed Chancellor Helmut Kohl in the Bonn chancellery in February 1989, I asked him why he did not use the word Wiedervereinigung (reunification) to describe the future of the two Germanys. Kohl was truculently adamant that there would be no “Anschluss” of eastern Germany by the West. “The vision is that we want the political union of Europe… The difference is that you are a prophet and I am only the Chancellor.” When the Wall fell, the official line in Bonn and East Berlin – accepted at first with relief, then with querulousness and then with downright disbelief in the capitals in East and West – was that reunification “was not on the agenda.” Few in Europe were enthusiastic about a reforging of the German nation. Britain’s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said out loud, often to the despair of her advisors, what many government leaders were thinking in private. Amid a welter of suspicion and double-dealing about the reopening of the “German Question,” very few people (particularly Kohl) were able to say in public (or even in semi-private) exactly what he or

The Atlantic Council 71 she thought was going on. In November 1989, the German No one expected that the western Chancellor believed another five years would elapse before reunification of the two rump of Germany, divided by Germanys. As it turned out, political reality massively accelerated the march of events – sparked by a mass western emigration Cold War confrontation, would by disillusioned and disenfranchised East Germans – an exodus that threatened emerge as a client state of the to disrupt the Federal Republic. The Easterners’ clamor for access to the good life (and the hard currency) of West emergent U.S. superpower Germany precipitated, first, the formal entry of the D-Mark across the Elbe in not have happened – because any move Germany’s lack of preparedness for July 1990 and then, on October 3, 1990, the towards it would have been obliterated in a unification was in many ways a blessing political unity of the nation. tide of domestic reserve and international in disguise for its neighbors, since an Speedy unification was unpalatable opposition. Almost by definition, therefore, economically weakened Federal Republic to many European countries. But from Germany was largely unprepared for the was a less demanding task-master in the a geostrategic point of view, it stabilized upheaval, as well as the rigors and hard early years of monetary union. That may Europe – and led to a less disruptive choices that were to follow. Among the now change as Germany recovers from disintegration of the Soviet Union than consequences were years of preparation for the 2008-09 downturn more quickly many had foreseen. The fast-track economic a single European currency, modeled on the than many other European countries, integration of East and West Germany was D-Mark and run by an institution highly strengthened by the global competitiveness accompanied by many poor decisions, which similar to the Bundesbank. of German industry and the re-election of were perhaps inevitable given the speed. West Germany did not bargain away its Chancellor Angela Merkel at the helm of a These centered on the lack of remedial currency in return for the agreement to new pro-business Christian Democrat-led measures to accompany the introduction reunification by France and other countries. coalition with the liberal Free Democrats. of the D-Mark into East Germany in July François Mitterrand, the historically aware Germany has gained great benefits from 1990 at a greatly overvalued rate against and politically-devious French President, the euro, but has also had to make what the East Mark – a move that increased had predicted in 1982 and 1981 respectively many German voters consider a notable unemployment in East Germany, heightened to Kohl and his predecessor Helmut concession through the disappearance inflation in West Germany and precipitated Schmidt that Germany would be unified of the D-Mark. In addition, through both higher interest rates and a subsequent by the end of the century as a result of a voluntary and involuntary means, Germany recession across the whole of Europe. weakened Soviet Union relinquishing its is providing much of the necessary balance Crucially, however, reunification avoided power over the East. So Mitterrand knew of payments financing to ensure that other the birth in the center of Europe of an entity that unification would happen, whatever members of the single currency – many of that many (including, curiously enough, the reluctance of countries such as France, them in serious economic straits – have the Margaret Thatcher) wished to see: an the U.K. or Italy. The President wanted to wherewithal to stay onside. independent, separate East Germany. Such ensure – like Kohl – that a new Germany As part of the bargain, Germany will a country would have been in an economic would be embedded in a stable European probably in future seek a greater say in euro and political limbo, possibly a neutral state framework – and he used a bravura area institutional governance – possibly occupying a fragile no-man’s-land between combination of threats and blandishments by insisting that a German national should communism and capitalism, prone to all to achieve it. take over the presidency of the European kinds of influences including infiltration by Egged on by the Bundesbank, Kohl Central Bank when Jean-Claude Trichet, terrorist groups, some perhaps with nuclear actually toughened conditions for the single the incumbent, retires in two years. Twenty or chemical weapons. currency in the months after the fall of the years after the fall of the Wall, Europe faces As a result of the release of documents Wall. But, surprisingly for many, the French a new set of challenges arising from the from state archives, the world now knows were so eager to neutralize Bundesbank same circumstances that caused so much much more than it did 20 years ago about influence on European monetary affairs perturbation in 1989-90 – a perception the support of the East German military that they were willing to accept almost of renewed German economic strength. and intelligence establishments for terrorist any condition to accomplish this prized But Europe’s success – sometimes against organizations that tried to destabilize West objective. The result is what we have today: all expectations – in weathering the Germany in the years before unification. A 16 nations (with Germany and France at vicissitudes of the past 60 years lends us non-aligned East Germany could relatively the helm) monetarily united by a common some confidence that the Old Continent easily have turned into another form of failed currency, under the helm of a Super- may surmount the obstacles of the future. state, a kind of Afghanistan an der Oder, that Bundesbank, but still politically disparate. the West Germans and the rest of the West The euro club co-exists (without too much David Marsh is Chairman, London & Oxford would certainly not wished to have had on difficulty) with 11 other European Union Capital Markets plc and Deputy Chairman their doorstep. members that remain outside monetary of the German-British Forum. He is the If Germany’s unification in 1989-90 had union, headed by the UK, Sweden, Denmark, author of The Euro – The Politics of the been expected, it almost certainly would Poland and the Czech Republic. New Global Currency.

72 The Atlantic Council A message from the Government of Portugal

s it celebrates its 60th anniversary, NATO prepares its new One of the main characteristics of today´s strategic environment Strategic Concept, a document which will very likely be must surely be a different reality in global geopolitics. The world Aapproved during the Summit to be held in Lisbon in 2010. has become essentially multipolar. The decision-making process is more complex, as it involves several actors. We are confronted with This new Concept will provide the Alliance with a conceptual disturbing threats such as terrorism and the proliferation of WMDs. blueprint that enables it to face multiple present and future tasks, building upon the Concept approved in Washington a decade ago In post-Cold War and a post “9/11” times, NATO has learned that to and the fundamental principles that consolidated NATO as a keeper uphold its core values is not the same as to impose them according of peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region and beyond. to the old logic of “the West and the rest”. Our Alliance has chosen to take on the challenges of enlargement to new Member States and to act decisively in critical operational theatres such as the Balkans and Afghanistan. This choice, which has brought on a considerable evolution to its guiding philosophy, to its structures and to its capabilities, has in many ways sought to keep pace with dramatic shifts in the world´s economy and the emergence elsewhere of new regional blocs and centers of power. These realities require political vision, courage and an innovative approach.

NATO´s present and future challenges encompass, therefore, the management and development of the relationships with its Eastern borders, Russia, the Mediterranean, Central Asia and the Middle East. NATO must also reassess its focus on the Atlantic region – as a geographically based Alliance that constitutes the very cornerstone of the Euro-Atlantic collective defence and security system – and take a fresh look at its ties to the Southern hemisphere.

As a founding NATO nation, with our membership of the European Union and our strong links to Africa and Latin America, Portugal will continue to contribute to the strengthening of NATO. We will be proud to host next year´s Summit in this spirit and with these objectives in mind.

Luís Amado Minister of State and Foreign Affairs of Portugal

The Power of Information The Cold War was ended by an information revolution, which no wall could prevent. By Michael Dobbs

ooking back on a decade Walesa. A 10-minute wait ensued as they covering the collapse of disappeared with my press card. communism as a reporter To my surprise, when the guards returned, for the Washington Post, they opened the gate a crack, admitting one moment stands out in me to the previously forbidden world Lparticular. It was August 1980, and I on the other side of a high wall. Entering was on assignment in Poland. Hearing the shipyard, I was greeted by chants of that a strike had broken out at the Lenin “Amerika, Amerika” from workers sprawled Shipyard in Gdansk, I ﬂew immediately to on the grass. Up until that moment, I had the Baltic coast. never had a real conversation with a Polish The shipyard gate was already decorated worker, meaning one that was not supervised with ﬂowers and a portrait of Pope John by a minder from the state “information” Paul II when I arrived. I did not expect to agency. Sitting in on the strike negotiations be allowed inside the shipyard. Poland was was like wandering behind the scenes of an awash with labor unrest in the summer elaborate theater production. For years, of 1980, but the negotiations had always communist propagandists had forced taken place in private, far from the Western journalists to watch the show from prying eyes of foreign correspondents. the balcony as the actors mouthed lines Nevertheless, I asked the guards if I could written for them by party ideologists. We Above: Solidarity leader talk to their leader, a then-unknown, suspected that what we were seeing on the Lech Walesa c.1989 unemployed electrician named Lech other side of the proscenium arch was false,

The Atlantic Council 75 but could never be sure. We now had front June 2009: a man uses his row seats and watched with amazement cellphone to record a as the characters on stage rebelled against protest in Tehran. The internet the director and tore up the script. The is making the organization of make-believe world created by communist such protests much easier – while dicatorships struggle to control propaganda was shattered for good. the flow of information Walesa instinctively understood that foreign correspondents could help him break the communist regime’s monopoly over the information media. Our reports were fed back into Poland through Western radio stations such as Radio Free Europe and the British Broadcasting Corporation, forcing the officially controlled communist news media to pay attention to the labor unrest sweeping the country. Whether we liked it or not, we were not simply witnesses to a revolution. We were unwitting participants. All revolutions are information revolutions, at least in part. The so-called “Twitter revolution” in Iran – using the internet to organize protests against a stolen election – is testimony to the subversive power of new information technologies. Dictatorial regimes devote enormous effort to controlling the flow of information, in order to shape the way their subjects think and behave. Loss of control over the flow of information is often a telltale sign of a dictatorship’s impending implosion. This is what happened in one East European country after another in the decade leading up to the velvet revolutions of 1989. Conversely, as we saw in China in 1989 and Iran in 2009, an unpopular regime can gain a new lease of life if it is sufficiently ruthless about reasserting its control over the media, both official and unofficial. Covering the revolutions of 1989 from Moscow, I was often reminded of the prophetic words of the Marquis de Custine, who visited Russia a century and a half earlier, under the dictatorial rule of Tsar Nicholas I: “As soon as speech is restored to this silenced people, one will hear so much dispute that an astonished world will think it has returned to the confusion of Babel.” What Custine termed “the day of discussion” was facilitated by the appearance of independent radio stations and publishing houses and a torrent of pamphlets, faxes, and news sheets. This Babel-like flood would have horrified both Lenin and Stalin who believed that the success of the Bolshevik revolution required total control of all media. They paid particular attention to “new media,” such as the cinema, which Lenin described as the “most important of all the arts.” (He meant

76 The Atlantic Council “politically important.”) Stalin acted as his own chief censor, examining movie scripts, The Bolsheviks newspaper articles, and even cartoons line by line for signs of ideological deviation. “Your tsar has come out as being indecisive,” he told made a mistake the director Sergei Eisenstein, referring to his movie, Ivan the Terrible. “He resembles in linking their Hamlet.” The red tsar complained that Eisenstein had depicted Ivan’s dreaded secret police – precursor to the KGB – as “a kind of political survival Ku Klux Klan.” Cinema, like radio, was well suited to to total control of the propaganda requirements of the great dictators, who relied on one-way information tools to spread their message. The task of society and media ideological indoctrination became much more challenging with the rise of two-way temporarily) through draconian martial information technologies, which allowed law regulations that included a travel ban the governed to talk directly to each other, inside Poland and disconnecting all but by-passing the official media altogether. official telephones. The Chinese authorities The internet was not a factor in the East responded to the information revolution by European revolutions of 1980-89, as it was stationing soldiers in front of fax machines still in the experimental stage. But other and shutting down newspapers that refused new inventions, such as copying equipment, to obey the new party line. miniature short-wave radio sets, and fax It turns out that the Bolsheviks made a machines, were loosening the Communist mistake in linking their political survival party’s stranglehold over the media. to total control of society and media. The In August 1980, the most seditious new Iranian mullahs and Chinese communists information technology was the cassette have discovered that it is not necessary to recorder, newly arrived in Eastern Europe. control every cog in the gigantic information Striking workers recorded cassette tapes machine. Their counter-insurgency strategy of the Gdansk negotiations and distributed includes a subtle mix of carrot and stick: them throughout Poland, making a technical controls over internet servers, mockery of the regime’s futile attempts at threats and inducements to companies censorship. In the Soviet Union, ordinary like Yahoo and Google to make them more Russians gathered round kitchen tables cooperative, and straightforward political to listen to bootlegged recordings of the repression. These new tactics appear to be Beatles, Dylan, and their own unofficial paying off, at least in the short term. bards, such as Vladimir Vysotsky and Bulat The long term is a different matter, Okudzhava. Fax machines were common however. The failed experiment in building enough in Eastern Europe by 1989 for a communist utopia demonstrated the reporters (this one included) to write stories impossibility of creating a modern society about “revolutions by fax.” Combined with while maintaining rigid control over international direct dialing, fax machines information. The information warriors – represented gateways to the outside world whether they were using cassette recorders, that avoided the usual state controls. faxes, or crudely cyclostyled newssheets – Breaking the state’s monopoly over the were in the frontlines of the anti-Bolshevik media is an essential precondition for a uprising. Their success is a reminder of the successful revolution – but is not, by itself, dilemma confronting oppressors everywhere. sufficient. A sufficiently determined dictator Cut your country off from the outside world can lock up the photocopiers, unplug the and condemn it to terminal economic automatic telephone exchanges, and hunt decline; open up and risk a revolution. down the computers and fax machines. This is precisely what happened in Poland Michael Dobbs was a foreign in December 1981 and in China in June correspondent in Moscow, Warsaw, Paris, 1989, after the Tiananmen massacre. and Belgrade for the Washington Post. He General Wojciech Jaruzelski crushed the was the first Western reporter to visit the Solidarity trade union movement (at least Lenin shipyard in Gdansk in August 1980.

The Atlantic Council 77 Reflections on the “Annus Mirabilis”

The revolutions of 1989 marked the end of the Cold War and the passing of an era, but how did they come about? Michael Dobbs reﬂects

78 The Atlantic Council t 85, his voice is no the overthrow of a hardline regime in at the cost of curtailing individual longer as firm as it Czechoslovakia, and the execution of the freedoms. The fate of communism once was,” reported Romanian dictator, Nicolae Ceausescu. was sealed when the workers began to Mary McGrory in But it was already clear to Kennan in rebel against the “workers’ state,” most The Washington the spring of 1989 that “Marxism of the dramatically in Poland in August 1980. “APost on April 5, 1989, “but his opinions Leninist type” was “on the way out, not The events of 1989 represented the – forthright, imaginative, often only in Russia but across the globe.” culmination of several overlapping iconoclastic – were vintage Kennan.” It was appropriate that the task of revolutions. First, there was the economic The pre-eminent American expert on the pronouncing the obsequies for world revolution, a wave of social unrest across Soviet Union, George Frost Kennan, had communism before the Senate Foreign the Soviet Empire motivated primarily by come to Capitol Hill to announce the end Relations Committee should fall to disgust at appalling living conditions and of the Cold War. Kennan. As a young diplomat in Moscow inadequate food supplies. Then there was The Berlin Wall would fall seven in 1946, he had articulated the strategy the national revolution, as Poles, Balts, months later, the highpoint of an annus of containment that would guide U.S. Hungarians, Ukrainians and other ethnic mirabilis, a “year of wonders,” that foreign policy for the next four decades. groups rebelled against centralized rule included the Soviet withdrawal from He had also predicted the manner in from Moscow. The third revolution can Afghanistan, the end of Communist which the Cold War would be won – not be dubbed “the revolt of the machines,” rule in Poland, the Tiananmen uprising through direct military confrontation symbolized most dramatically by the in China, free elections in Hungary, between America and Russia, but as nuclear accident at Chernobyl in 1986, a result of the “gradual mellowing of a man-made catastrophe that resulted Soviet power.” As Kennan saw it, the task from slipshod supervision of modern of American diplomacy was to assist this technology. In the wry formulation of mellowing by sharpening the political the Polish dissident Adam Michnik, “In and economic contradictions in the Poland, in August 1980, it was human Soviet system that would eventually lead beings who went on strike; in the Soviet to its collapse. Union, we are witnessing a strike of The year 1989 was a hinge moment inanimate objects.” in history, the end of one era and the And finally there was the revolt of the beginning of another. It can be compared Communist Party’s own rank-and-file, as in its scope and consequences to other well-heeled apparatchiks discovered that dramatic turning points such as 1945 they could trade in their bureaucratic (the end of World War II), 1917 (the privileges for previously undreamed of Bolshevik revolution and breakup capitalist riches. of empires), 1848 (year of liberal Reporting from Moscow in the revolutions in Europe), 1812 (the defeat aftermath of the failed August 1991 coup of Napoleon), and the great revolutions against Mikhail Gorbachev, I was stunned of 1789 and 1776. by the docile way in which a once all- The sight of joyous crowds streaming powerful institution accepted defeat. The through the Berlin Wall on November Soviet Communist Party had 15 million 9, 1989 conjured up the lines of William members at the time of its demise. Not Wordsworth on the French revolution: a single one of them put up any real “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive/And resistance. The triumphant democrats to be young was very heaven.” Nobody under Boris Yeltsin took over the party knew exactly what would come next, but headquarters in Moscow with a dozen everyone understood that the world had militiamen and a few activists armed with changed forever. a crumpled piece of paper ordering the The revolutions of 1989 marked the evacuation of a building that had served final discrediting of the 72-year-old as the hub of a worldwide revolutionary Bolshevik experiment, the belief that a movement. When the end came, the socialist utopia can be created through communists were too exhausted and too force, with the ends justifying the means. dispirited to ﬁght back. Communism did not just fail measured The durability of communism and the up against the liberal standards of speed with which it collapsed were two Western democracies: it failed on its sides of the same coin. There came a point own terms. The Bolshevik commissars at which the strengths of the system – were unable to deliver on their promise massive repression, rigid centralization, of providing the working-class masses an all embracing ideology, the obsession a better and more abundant life, even with military power – turned into fatal ﬂaws. By ruthlessly suppressing all manifestations of nationalism and political dissent, the Bolsheviks created Communist leaders, including Joseph Stalin and Leon Trotsky, take to the the conditions for the simultaneous streets during the Russian Revolution collapse of communism and the Soviet

The Atlantic Council 79 state. When the end came, nobody was dictum that the Balkans “produce more prepared to help them. history than they can consume,” as Historians have identified many Serbs, Croats, and Moslems set about claimants to the title of vanquisher settling old scores after a half-century of communism. Pope John Paul II truce. Mini-wars broke out in the exposed the moral failings and political 1989 Caucasus and Central Asia as former isolation of communist leaders; Andrei Fall of the Berlin Wall Communist leaders jostled for power Sakharov stressed the universality of with independence advocates. human rights at a time when most of his The existence of large Russian compatriots kept silent; Lech Walesa led minorities within newly independent the workers’ rebellion that splintered nations, from the Baltic states to the the monolithic unity of the one-party Ukraine, supplied the Kremlin with a state; the Afghan mujahedin proved that natural pressure point in the new post- the Red Army was not invincible; Ronald Soviet era. Nationalism, rather than Reagan challenged Soviet leaders to an liberal democracy, became the driving armaments race they could not possibly political force across a large swathe of win; Mikhail Gorbachev allowed millions the world, including the two communist of Soviet citizens to confront their tragic giants, Russia and China. Most ominous past; Boris Yeltsin stood up to the tanks of all was the specter of Islamic that had been dispatched to crush the fundamentalism rising like a phoenix anti-Bolshevik uprising. out of the ashes of the Soviet occupation All these contributions were signiﬁcant, of Afghanistan. but none was decisive. Communism was With hindsight, it is easy to trace many not defeated by any single individual or 1945 of today’s geopolitical crises back to the even a combination of individuals. In the WWII ends euphoria of 1989. last resort, communism defeated itself. The Tiananmen massacre in June The system collapsed under its own 1989 provided a dark counterpoint to weight, exactly as Kennan had predicted. the string of pro-democracy victories The communists exhausted the land they in Eastern Europe, demonstrating ruled for “three score years and ten,” the that a repressive regime can crush a lifespan of the human organism. After the popular uprising, if it is sufficiently price of oil collapsed in the early 1980s ruthless in the application of force. The and once-abundant Siberian oil reserves Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan began to dwindle, it became impossible in February 1989 was greeted with for Soviet leaders to sustain their ever- jubilation in many parts of the world, growing empire. Something had to give. but left behind a dangerous ideological While the collapse of communism vacuum that was later filled by the may have been inevitable, there was Taliban and al-Qaeda. The pain and nothing inevitable about the way in chaos that resulted from the early which it happened, or what happened experiments with free market economics next. The fall of the Berlin Wall in in Russia spawned a political reaction November 1989 was greeted with 1917 that paved the way for the eventual rise widespread triumphalism in the West, of the authoritarian Vladimir Putin. Communist revolution The unraveling of the communist best illustrated by an essay that the in Russia political scientist Francis Fukuyama empire was a great human drama, as wrote for the National Interest, entitled great a drama in its own way as the “The End of History?” (When he turned original Bolshevik revolution. In the the essay into a book in 1992, he removed space of a decade, playwrights and the question mark.) For Fukuyama, the electricians were magically transformed events of 1989 were proof of the triumph into presidents, dissidents into prime of Western liberal democracy over all its ministers, Marxists into nationalists and ideological alternatives. “What we may general secretaries into jailbirds. be witnessing,” he wrote, “is not just the The familiar and seemingly ossified end of the Cold War, or the passing of a Cold War world – the world of Dr particular period of post-war history, but Strangelove and Checkpoint Charlie – the end of history as such: that is, the end vanished forever. But history did not end point of mankind’s ideological evolution in 1989. Instead, it was accelerated. and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of Michael Dobbs is the author of Down human government.” with Big Brother: the Fall of the Soviet Such predictions proved way too 1812 Empire and One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on optimistic. During the 1990s, we were Napoleon defeated in Russia reminded of Winston Churchill’s the Brink of Nuclear War.

80 The Atlantic Council December 1989: German Chancellor Helmut Kohl shakes hands with Berlin citizens climbing the Wall at the Brandenburg Gate

The Atlantic Council 81 Beyond Containment: How the Cold War was Won

As part of the Bush administration during the 1980s, Condoleezza Rice witnessed ﬁrst-hand the events that led to the fall of the Wall

istorians are often tempted the structural problems in the Soviet to imbue the peaceful end system had become increasingly difficult of the Cold War with a to overlook as the isolated, centralized sense of inevitability. With and heavily militarized Soviet economy the benefit of hindsight, was surpassed by the more decentralized Hthey frequently point to a seemingly economies of capitalist systems that predictable sequence of events in which encouraged innovation from below. Mikhail Gorbachev’s campaign to Although Gorbachev did not fully restructure the Soviet system ultimately understand these inherent flaws in the exposed its internal contradictions and Soviet design, he rightly recognized that seamlessly contributed to its collapse. the continued political and economic For those of us serving in the George isolation of the Soviet Union would only H.W. Bush administration during the exacerbate its predicament. 1980s, however, the end of the Cold War Ending such isolation, however, seemed neither predictable nor inevitable. would require a fundamental shift in Gorbachev’s “new thinking,” which Soviet foreign policy. Abandoning the envisioned an end to the Soviet Union’s notion of class struggle and hostility isolation in favor of a “common European towards democratic capitalism that had home” for capitalist and communist defined the Soviet Union’s relations with countries alike, confronted the reality of a the West, Gorbachev instead foresaw sustained ideological struggle between the the Soviet Union taking its place in a ideals of freedom and liberty championed “common European home” where it in the West and the repressive policies could coexist with capitalist, socialist and undertaken to prop up socialist regimes in communist countries as partners in trade the Eastern bloc. and international financial institutions. Faced with the prospect of an enduring To facilitate its reintegration into the rivalry that would continue to deny international system, the Soviet Union Eastern Europeans the blessings of pledged to respect fundamental human liberty and prosperity, the United States rights and refrain from interfering with articulated a bold, transformational the internal affairs of other socialist vision for Europe in 1989, one that regimes in Eastern Europe so that they moved beyond containment strategies could determine their own path free from of the past to promote the peaceful direct Soviet influence. reunification of Germany, end the Cold On one hand, Gorbachev’s “new War and lay the foundations for a free thinking” augured a more conciliatory and democratic Europe. Soviet Union. By the end of 1988, the Ironically, Gorbachev’s reforms United States and the Soviet Union had provided the initial opening for this signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear vision to be realized. By the early 1980s, Forces Treaty, which committed both

82 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 83 sides to eliminate these weapons systems When President George H.W. Bush Former President George W. Bush (center) discusses and compelled the Soviets to agree came to power in 1989, the competing the situation in Iraq with, from left: Defense to deeper arms reductions than their impulses of Gorbachev’s reform efforts Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Western counterparts. The Soviets had began to expose cracks in the Soviet and Secretary of State Colin Powell also withdrawn from Afghanistan and system. Facing enormous economic negotiated settlements in southern pressure, the Polish communist Africa, easing longstanding tensions leadership had entered into talks with with the United States in each super- workers seeking to revive the outlawed say plainly that the Cold War would not power’s scramble for influence in the Solidarity trade union. Members of the be over until the division of Europe had developing world. ruling Socialist Unity Party in East Berlin ended and Europe was “whole and free.” On the other hand, Gorbachev’s reforms attempted to crack down on reformist He also granted economic assistance also served to maintain – perhaps even elements within their own party, to the Polish government in exchange enhance – the Soviet Union’s status as widening the traditionally small circle of for lifting the ban against independent a superpower, virtually guaranteeing popular unrest against the regime. political associations. that the ideological competition with This cascade of events presented Perhaps most importantly, President the West would persist rather than President Bush’s young administration Bush embraced the bold vision that abate. Gorbachev’s commitment to self- with a possible strategic breakthrough. the Cold War could only truly end with determination in Eastern Europe appeared The United States could continue the the reunification of Germany under a to extend only insofar as these countries successful containment policies of its past democratic system of governance. To call organized themselves with deference by working to stabilize developments on this pronouncement ambitious was a vast to a common Leninist framework. His the ground in Europe and avoiding major understatement; most officials predicted goal was to create sufficient political confrontation with its rival superpower. that even with greater openness and space for other like-minded reformers to On the other hand, it had an opportunity pluralism taking root in Eastern Europe, stamp out the harshest aspects of their to move beyond containment, to seize it would be at least a century before the socialist regimes, without sacrificing their both on Gorbachev’s momentum toward divisions separating East and West Berlin fundamentally Leninist foundations. reform and the stirrings of internal would fully collapse. He saw little contradiction, however, dissent in the Soviet Bloc to transform President Bush, however, refused between a socialist ideology premised on Europe into a free and unified society. to allow present-day realities to the subjugation of individual liberty and Though initially cautious, the Bush constrain his thinking and pursued this free enterprise domestically and a foreign administration seized this historic transformative vision, even as critics policy purporting to respect common moment. Within four months, President derided it as politically unfeasible. Few, international values. Bush became the first Western leader to it seems, would have ever imagined that

84 The Atlantic Council by the summer of 1989, scores of East mass exodus from East Germany to West, German refugees would flee to West who tuned in to the broadcasts of Radio The brave Germany by way of Hungary, that by Free Europe against the objections of November the Berlin Wall would come their government, who shed the shackles crashing down, or that less than a year of oppression in pursuit of the ideals actions of these later – and almost a century ahead of of liberty and prosperity offered by a schedule – the Federal Republic of free society. impatient Germany would absorb the German The brave actions of these impatient Democratic Republic into a single patriots – matched by the bold democratic state. transformative visions of Western patriots ensured Although the United States articulated policymakers – ensured that freedom a bold transformative vision that helped would triumph over tyranny. that freedom end the Cold War, peace was not forged Today, a new kind of ideological by America alone, nor were these efforts struggle emerges, one that finds freedom’s confined to a single time or place. enemies in the form of dictators who would triumph Under the leadership of visionaries persecute religious and ethnic minorities, like Ernest Bevin of Great Britain and in the form of tyrants who cling to over tyranny Konrad Adenauer of West Germany, artificial symbols of legitimacy, in the America’s allies were instrumental in form of terrorists who seek to slaughter foreseeing possibilities for unification innocent civilians and seek to destroy and liberation of Eastern Europe from civilized ways of life. the very beginning of this struggle. They We must marshal the institutions of joined with American leaders like Harry the Cold War era, like the NATO Alliance, Truman and Dean Acheson to give rise to help meet these 21st-century threats. to institutions like NATO, which would And, perhaps most importantly, we prove invaluable in achieving a vision must never surrender the bold vision that in 1949 was all but a dream. that advances the goals of freedom and But perhaps the greatest credit for democracy around the world. liberation of Eastern Europe lies with common people whose thirst for freedom Condoleezza Rice was the 66th Secretary survived decades of repression under of State of the United States. She is co- Soviet rule – ordinary warriors like author, with Philip Zelikow, of Germany Russian author Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Unified and Europe Transformed: whose Nobel Prize-winning writings A Study in Statecraft and is also an documented the horrors of Soviet labor Honorary Director of the Atlantic Council camps. They are the ones who led the of the United States.

Russian author Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn documented the horrors of Soviet labor camps

The Atlantic Council 85 Freedom’s Triumph

Klaus Naumann reﬂects on four decades of political and military containment

he Cold War was the longest Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact could at no of the three wars fought in the time offer something similar. When NATO 20th century for a lasting order then moved beyond its reactive strategy of in Europe. Fortunately, it came defending the treaty area militarily – and to an end in 1989 after 40 years pursued as it adopted the Harmel Report in Tof confrontation without a single shot being 1967 the two-track strategy of deterrence fired in anger. Throughout these 40 years, through credible defense and détente Europe saw the biggest concentration of through dialogue and cooperation – the military forces known in its peacetime Soviet Union had lost the political initiative. history along the front line, from the North It responded by proposing a conference on Cape in Norway to Eastern Anatolia in security and cooperation in Europe, which Turkey, with the main emphasis along the aimed at securing the Soviet territorial gains 1,300km-long fence which kept Germany after World War II. divided until 1990. Both sides, NATO led Ironically, the result was the Helsinki by the U.S. and the Warsaw Pact led by Agreement of 1973, which led to a slight the Soviet Union, were prepared for a war raising of the Iron Curtain. Suddenly the that would have cost millions of lives and suppressed people of the Warsaw Pact would have led to the destruction of most nations saw what life with freedom had to of Europe. The former USSR’s war plans offer and thus the erosion of the Soviet Bloc foresaw, until 1988, an attack on Western began. The process led to the triumph of Europe which included, despite the Soviet freedom, which was made possible by NATO’s declaratory “No-First-Use” policy, the use then 16 nations. They had, throughout 40 of hundreds of nuclear weapons in the first years of confrontation, maintained the will hours of the attack. This fact must be kept to resist and had resolved to fight standing in mind by those who argue today that a shoulder to shoulder should they come under “No-First-Use” policy plus a declaratory attack. They held firm that an attack on one convention would suffice to reduce the risks of them meant an attack on all of them. of nuclear wars. This was most visibly demonstrated NATO prevailed in the Cold War and in along the Inner-German Border where nine the 20 years since then Europe has moved allied Army Corps and the supporting air closer to the vision of a whole and free force elements were lined up for defense Europe that NATO’s founding fathers had like a string of pearls. The readiness of these in mind when they signed the Washington forces – the countless exercises, which Treaty in April 1949, in the Mellon Hall in included trans-Atlantic reinforcements, the downtown Washington while listening to employment of French forces as strategic the tune “It Ain’t Necessarily So.” reserves and the use of nuclear weapons But the vision became true. NATO won training – made their opponents uneasy. This the Cold War first and foremost because produced security: the Warsaw Pact was at of the lifestyle that Western democracies no time able to calculate the outcome of an and free market economies can offer armed East-West conflict, but it knew for their citizens. It is the best formula to sure that they would suffer immense losses. guarantee people more individual freedom Thus military readiness, plus truly and the rule of law. Furthermore, it offers substantial military capabilities, plus nuclear greater opportunities for social justice and deterrence, underpinned NATO’s policy of individual wellbeing. NATO’s opponent, the collective defense and allowed the Alliance

86 The Atlantic Council to prevail. NATO’s nations paid a high price might. Finally, the P II/GLCM deployment process that then followed proved that it is for this: thousands of military personnel brought the message home that the USSR true that nothing is as irresistible as an idea lost their lives in the countless exercises could be hit hard by the U.S. without forcing whose time has come. conducted to demonstrate credibly the the Americans to resort to strategic assets. This “irresistible” idea was in 1989 the idea ability to defend the NTA. Their sacrifices Moreover, the failure of the resistance of freedom, democracy and the rule of law. It must never be forgotten. movement throughout Europe, which the was eventually this idea which brought the Of course, initiatives such as the Strategic Soviets had triggered and massively financed, Soviet empire down and the West was able Defense Initiative (SDI), the resolve to demonstrated convincingly that the West to avail itself of this idea’s power since it was fight – as shown in the Cuban Missile Crisis remained united and that its politicians based on thriving economies, on credible – and, most importantly, the deployment of were resolved to stay the course despite defenses under the protective umbrella of Pershing II and the Ground Launch Cruise tremendous public pressure. Possibly this extended nuclear deterrence provided by Missile (GLCM) in response to the SS-20 was the defining moment in which the then the U.S., and, last but by no means least, on deployment were factors that underpinned Soviet President Gorbachev understood that the unity and the resolve of 16 democratic the West’s determination to resist and to he had to change Soviet Foreign Policy from nations to stand shoulder to shoulder. This prevail. Cuba taught the Soviets that there confrontation to cooperation, thus ushering is the lesson that must not be forgotten by were lines that they should never cross if in a period of stability, producing arms today’s leaders, as our nations have to cope they wished to survive. SDI, although still control and disarmament. with a truly unruly and unpredictable world. in development, unleashed the Revolution The Cold War came to an end in 1989 in Military Affairs, showed the Soviets their when NATO declared its end at its London Klaus Naumann, a four-star General, technological inferiority and told them Summit and extended a hand of friendship was Chief of Staff, Federal Armed Forces, that they would never have the economic to the erstwhile enemies. This prompted and is former Chairman of the NATO or financial power to match American reconciliation throughout Europe and the Military Committee.

President Kennedy meets with U.S. Army ofﬁcials during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962

The Atlantic Council 87 Trans-Atlanticism Renewed: The Path to Force Effectiveness

Although NATO today faces threats from more unconventional enemies, its need to forge a strong trans-Atlantic Alliance remains essential, says Thomas Enders

hroughout the Cold War, the Berlin Wall signified the tension and distrust between the capitalist, democratic West and the communist, Tauthoritarian East. No other symbol of the era conveys the sense of divide – the Iron Curtain – so vividly as the concrete and barbed wire that cleaved Berlin. Today, in marking the 20th anniversary of the Wall’s fall and the restoration of freedom throughout all of Germany, it is important that we also consider the current state of the trans-Atlantic security relationship and the future of the NATO Alliance as it drafts a new Strategic Concept. Some 30 years ago, NATO centered its military planning on the specter of a Soviet armored thrust through the Fulda Gap and into the heart of Western Europe. Faced with this threat, the Alliance focused solely on the defense of Europe against a modern, conventionally armed and highly mobile enemy. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, today’s Fulda Gap is not found in central Germany, but in the mountains of Afghanistan, at the Horn of Africa, and in cyberspace, to name just a few frontiers of current or potential combat. NATO must confront these challenges as it did during the Cold War – with a joint, cohesive posture that focuses the collective strength of the Alliance and protects the mutual interests of its trans- Atlantic members. The centerpiece of this policy should revolve around an Alliance- wide commitment to adequate resources and a continued modernization drive to meet current and future needs. phenomenon of “hybrid warfare,” are truly shared approach to force structure Resources, or the lack thereof, have different, but the resource issue is similar. across the Atlantic. long been an issue of contention among The progressive recognition by NATO of One approach to addressing this Alliance members. During the Cold War, the need to confront security risks quite problem is to take advantage of the the sheer bulk of Soviet military-might unlike the Soviet threat has continued, recent appointment of French General threatened to overrun Europe before even exacerbated, the demands on force Stéphane Abrial as head of NATO’s Allied reinforcements could be rushed across structure and resources – as exemplified Command Transformation in Norfolk, the Atlantic. Under those conditions, by deployments in the Balkans and now Virginia. General Abrial can build on his the combination of tailored, heavy Afghanistan. Given the current political predecessor’s excellent work and inject European forces supplemented by environment, however, where many energy and focus into what had become forward deployed U.S. forces and nuclear member countries are unwilling to increase a moribund effort to transform NATO’s weapons served as an effective deterrent their respective defense budgets, NATO is doctrine, tactics and force structure. A against Soviet aggression. Based on this faced with the need to get more from less. critical element of this transformation construct, countries coordinated force It is exceedingly clear that there are effort must be the full acceptance of the planning efforts and worked to build no simple answers to this resource economic principle of specialization. specialized capabilities among members, question. Yet, in a very significant way, Because few countries can afford to field thus reducing redundant independent an examination of the past provides a military capable of meeting the full national force structures and stretching much of the answer – trans-Atlantic spectrum of 21st-century threats – whether available defense funding. Though there cooperation. The same principles that they be conventional, hybrid, or even based were disagreements at times, this transformed NATO’s response to the Warsaw on nation-building scenarios – mutual Atlantic approach, built on the inherent Pact threat – military specialization and reliance among members for specialized cooperation that forms the foundation of mutual dependency among countries – military skills is imperative. General the Alliance, proved its value. can again be harnessed today to contend Abrial’s position and stature as a European Today, the tests facing the Atlantic with current challenges. Efficiencies and general officer afford him the ability to Alliance, including the modern greater effectiveness can be found in a tackle this issue head-on and coordinate

90 The Atlantic Council Previous page: French soldiers attend a change of command ceremony of the NATO-led peacekeeping Kosovo Force in north Kosovo, September 17, 2009

Left: Dutch NATO-led soldier stands guard in front of an armored personnel carrier in the Bosnian village of Ahmici, December 18, 1997

Fortunately, there are several key allied countries replace and modernize trans-Atlantic programs where such their respective aerial refueling tanker successes can be achieved. One effort fleets. Largely unrecognized in the widely is the Medium Extended Air Defense debated U.S. Air Force tanker competition System (MEADS), the sole effort for are the potential benefits Northrop modernizing air defenses throughout Grumman and EADS/Airbus bring with the Alliance. Notably, the U.S., which the KC-45 offer (based on the A330 long- is heavily invested in this program, range aircraft). With the U.K. and Australia intends to rely on the system to protect already committed to a Multirole Tanker its deployed forces around the world. Transport essentially identical to the KC- Though it is not without its challenges, 45, an opportunity for a largely common MEADS is a case where real industrial fleet flown by the U.S., U.K., Australia, and cooperation can advance a critical ultimately France, exists. capability across the Alliance. These suggestions are by no means the Similar focus is required in other only ways to move the Alliance forward. areas, foremost of which is the area of That said, when such opportunities for advanced intelligence, surveillance, and trans-Atlantic cooperation are present, reconnaissance capabilities. The recently every effort must be made to extract the launched Alliance Ground Surveillance most benefit possible. Failure to take program, which brings advanced unmanned advantage of these situations results in little aerial vehicle (UAV) abilities to the more than squandered financial resources battlefield, is one such crucial collaborative and decreased military capability and modernization program. Its lengthy interoperability among Alliance members. gestation period should not unduly cloud For much of its history, NATO Greater effectiveness can be found in a truly shared approach to force structure specialization among NATO militaries. It is the positive benefits this opportunity offers. successfully partnered across the his mandate. On a bilateral basis, the Eurohawk program Atlantic and executed a strategy of As part of this drive toward also promises to significantly enhance the deterrence to avoid war against a specialization, the Alliance should German military’s effectiveness through massive, conventional force. Now, in also look toward maximizing scarce the integration of German-developed perhaps a defining moment, the Alliance budgetary resources through coordinated electronic intelligence payloads and finds itself embroiled in battle on a development efforts. From an industrial ground stations with the U.S. Global Hawk very distant front with an unexpected perspective, collaboration in the platform. Next-generation European UAVs enemy posing a different, but equally development and production of advanced now under development might equally grave, threat to long-term peace and capabilities can offer substantial material offer possibilities for military and industrial security. In confronting the challenge benefits. Clearly, NATO cannot afford cooperation in the years to come. of adapting its forces to this evolving to make multiple, redundant financial Like UAVs, Alliance strategic mobility threat, NATO must refocus on the trans- expenditures to field just one required shortfalls can also be tackled through a Atlantic foundation that served it so military capability. The returns provided trans-Atlantic partnership. The Airbus well for 60 years. Further collaboration by a coordinated development process A400M military airlifter, which will on force structure and specialization, in terms of efficient resource allocation, very soon take to the skies, will provide doctrine transformation, and equipment interoperability, reduced logistic burden, strategic and tactical lift for nine modernization will strengthen the and political alignment are too obvious countries. As the U.S. looks to address a Alliance and ensure that for every to be ignored. Yet, given the political future airlift modernization requirement, invested euro, pound, or dollar, NATO volatility of mutual dependency among it makes sense to leverage the investment fields the best capability possible. countries, technology transfer issues, and partner countries have already made in the industrial base evolution, it is necessary aircraft, thus freeing up resources that can Thomas Enders is President and to pick a few high-leverage opportunities be applied to other defense priorities. Chief Executive Officer of Airbus and – the low-hanging fruit – and capitalize on Finally, it is important to consider trans- International Advisory Board Member of those programs first. Atlantic cooperation as NATO and other the Atlantic Council of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 91 Sharing Cultural Values

The trans-Atlantic exchange of ideas continues to create profound bonds between the nations of this geopolitical region. By Michael Naumann

Charlie Chaplin at the premiere of ver since NATO lost its manifestations of American culture with one of his movies in Berlin immediate purpose, defending open arms. Jazz defined the rhythm of Western Europe and the United Berlin in the Weimar Republic. During States against military threats the 1930s, Ernest Hemingway, William by the Warsaw Pact, the German Faulkner and Thomas Wolfe had found E“Atlantiker” (Atlanticists) have been more readers in Germany than in the stressing the other element of the Alliance U.S. – at least for their first books. A – the furtherance of its shared “values.” And nation, whose windows to the U.S. had indeed, the reliance of all Western societies been closed since the beginning of World on the due process of law, on freedom War II, quenched its thirst for cultural of speech and the daily consolations news from America, once paperbacks provided by our literature, music and art is appeared on the market. First prints undisputable. These are the most attractive of 50,000 copies became the rule for characteristics of our democracies. American authors. Plays by Thornton While it is true that conservative Wilder and Eugene O’Neill dominated Germany maintained an ignorant the post-war theaters. Hollywood aversion to what was known as cultural marched victoriously through Germany’s “Amerikanisierung” in the 1920s, post-war movie-theaters. it is also true that liberal Germany, “Umerziehung” (re-education), which was later to succumb to fascism, remained a phrase used by conservative welcomed the exuberant and revelatory newspapers to denounce the extremely

92 The Atlantic Council The Amerika Haus (architect Paul Troost), Munich, Germany, late 1940s. Formerly known as the “Fuhrerbau,” the building housed Adolf Hitler’s Munich offices fruitful progress of Western acculturation experienced in the Federal Republic during the post-war era. Every major city in West Germany had its “Amerika-Haus.” These public libraries provided citizens with an opportunity to learn more about American culture and politics. Large audiences attended discussions and debates on the U.S. and its role in the world. They became arenas for the fruitful exchange of ideas and also for the elimination of prejudices. The role of popular American music, at first provided by American Forces Network and British Forces Network, was also influential. Four years ago there was a movement in German parliament to introduce a quota of German pop singles on German FM frequencies. It failed. Attempts by the French film industry to persuade this author in his political role as “Staatsminister für Kultur” to adopt an anti-American quota-system to reduce the screening of movies made in the U.S. also failed. The German preference is for an open cultural exchange, without quotas or state imposed rules. Yet, all is not well. The emergence of the individual or national self-understanding, communication colossus Google threatens Every major they will be able to immunize themselves to undermine already fragile copyright against the intellectual derailments of laws, as do other U.S.-dominated search the 20th century – ideologies of racial or engines. This needs to be addressed by the city in West national or ideological superiority. European Union and the U.S. Congress. It was this derailment of national There can be no doubt as to the numerous Germany had its cultural self-interpretations, specifically positive advances in cultural exchange Germany’s, which led to the catastrophes provided by the internet. Yet, when of the 20th century. Not only Germany, this expansion is solely based on profit “Amerika-Haus” but all of Europe has learned its lesson making and the simultaneous destruction regarding the political consequences of of the cultural property rights of those Western culture will maintain its cultural hubris. It remains to be seen who generate them, whether in music, intrinsic persuasiveness, as long as it whether these lessons will be remembered. literature, photography or other arts, refrains from ethnical or ideologically Europe and the United States share a Europe and the U.S. will enter a stage of inspired projections of power. Culture’s mutual cultural responsibility based on cultural discord, mistrust and endless real strength relies on its openness our cultural memories. conflicts. It is our good luck, however, that towards other ideas, its capacity for self- these conflicts can and will be discussed rejuvenation and self-criticism. Michael Naumann is Co-Publisher of according to the terms provided by the As long as the European nations and the Die Zeit and was Germany’s first post-war cultural mutualities mentioned above. U.S. share these mutual aspects of their Minister for Culture.

The Atlantic Council 93 A Warning From the Spy World

The Cold War may be over, but, as former CIA senior ofﬁcial Tennent H. Bagley explains, secret warfare is still being waged

very bubble of champagne weapons and techniques remain active celebrating the anniversary and deadly. of the fall of the Berlin Wall A former top KGB general, still closely is justified. That amazing connected to his old service, made this moment, followed two strikingly clear to me in Moscow. Though Eyears later by the final lowering of the it was years after the fall of the Wall and red banner from the Kremlin flagpole, the Soviet collapse, he was irritated by symbolized the dawn of new hopes that, talk of friendly “post-war” get-togethers in large part, have become reality in the of “former” enemies. Looking menacingly 20 years since. at me, his Cold War enemy, he spat out, Still, the celebrating can be overdone, “Make no mistake, we are still working especially if this symbol is equated with against you.” He knew whereof he spoke. earlier ones that marked real victories It was none other than KGB Lieutenant – like the railway car in the Compiègne General Nikolay S. Leonov, former forest in 1918, or the deck of the battleship Head of the KGB’s analysis of the intake Missouri in 1945 – that seemed to offer from its worldwide spying, the Soviet real and durable peace. equivalent of the CIA’s Deputy Director No doubt the Cold War really ended for Intelligence. after the Wall fell. Russia is no longer By “you” he didn’t mean me personally, a military colossus seeking world nor even the CIA where, as he knew, I domination for communism. In foreign had long opposed his work. He meant the affairs it has helped the West mitigate United States and its Western allies, still some threats to peace. In Russia itself, “the main adversary” in the KGB lexicon democracy sprouted and fear diminished and mindset. (though more recently these trends By “we” he meant his KGB. Today, have reversed). But despite the name after the dozen or so name changes change from “Soviet” to “Russian,” no it has undergone in its near-century one admitted defeat and the same people of existence, it goes by other initials, ruled the country, most of them looking like FSB and SVR. Here we can call it, at the outside world with the same embracing all its parts wherever they xenophobia and paranoia – and the same may now be formally subordinated, “the perceived adversaries. They rankle over Russian security services.” But today it the loss of prestige and vast territories is much more than that. When the Soviet from their old empire. Communist Party fell, its “sword and And they preserve, intact, their shield” inherited its power. Today, KGB methods of waging secret warfare. people, along with their old associates in These are easy to overlook because they repression, occupy some three-quarters are hidden, even denied. But now, as of the most commanding positions in the Watched over by Vladimir Lenin, Russian assertiveness and revanchism Russian government and economy. a monument to Felix Dzerzhinsky, grow – demonstrated by the invasion of And by “working against” he did not the founder of the KGB, stood before its headquarters in Moscow before Georgia in 2008 – it would be a mistake mean merely spying. He wouldn’t have being removed when communism to ignore them. Because, today, these considered that worth mentioning, taking collapsed in 1991

94 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 95 In the year 2000, the post-Soviet Russian regime published a book proudly describing dozens of these successful “special operations” abroad in Soviet times, lauding the murderers as heroes it for granted (and rightly assuming I visible. To mention only the last few would too) that even in the happiest of years, in 2004 in Kiev the bothersome peacetimes any state power necessarily Ukrainian leader Viktor Yushchenko tries to spy out the hidden capabilities was fed a uniquely toxic mix of dioxin and intentions of its potential enemies. concocted in a secret laboratory. Over the No, this KGB leader was alluding to the last ﬁve years, in such places as Qatar and much more warlike methods he knew Dubai and Vienna, as well as inside the I was familiar with, such as deceiving, Russian Federation, they shot and blew misleading, disrupting and subverting up political leaders of national groups foreign adversaries and physically such as Chechens and Kazakhs. They eliminating actual and potential continue to instigate demonstrations opponents inside the country and abroad. in Georgia to topple NATO-friendly Having honed these secret methods President Mikheil Saakashvili, after for nearly a century, the Russian security repeatedly trying (and only narrowly services continue to use them as before, failing) to assassinate him. Rivals and through specialized units. critics of Vladimir Putin, himself a KGB To mislead and weaken perceived man, have been murdered by the score, enemies, they still launch “active poisoned like Yuri Shchekochikhin in 2003 measures.” Through secret agents and or shot like Anna Politkovskaya in 2006. friends in ostensibly objective Western Some three dozen journalists, including media, they use forgeries and leaks of in 2003 the American Paul Klebnikov and compromising information to discredit in 2009 Natalia Estemirova, have fallen and bring down disliked foreign political to units like URPO, who were doubtless leaders and bring more friendly ones also responsible for some of the dozens of to power. They shape information to Former URPO member Alexander Litvinenko, pictured murders of bankers and factory directors, stir animosities and resentments, to here in the intensive care unit of University College although most of these were more divide and weaken the Western alliance, Hospital, London, was murdered in 2006 with a likely gangland hits, amid the endemic radioactive product from a secret laboratory among other ways by prolonging and corruption and lawlessness of the country. exacerbating criticism and ridicule of any These actions, so long after the fall of Western plan or policy that might be seen given carte blanche to murder criminals the Wall, cannot be attributed to rogue as a mistake, failure or shortcoming. – and in the process, political opponents. elements, common criminals, or to the Other specialized units of the Russian The world learned about URPO from reﬂexive kicks of a dying animal. They are security services physically liquidate one of its former members, Alexander carrying out the national policy of a major opponents at home and abroad. Via Litvinenko, who for telling this and power. It is power that seeks to bring back teacup, umbrella tip, spray tube or other hidden truths about the Putin under its control the lost republics of the whatever best carries to a particular regime was himself murdered in 2006 Soviet Union and the once-captive nations target, they deliver the products of with a radioactive product from a secret of Eastern Europe, and so fervently secret laboratories whose whole science laboratory. At the time, he was a British opposes America and its NATO allies that is devoted today, as it has been since citizen living in London. it supports and makes common cause with the early 1920s, to devising ways to The security services’ special military anti-American elements anywhere, from induce death that would look “natural” units – “Alpha” and “Vympel” and Venezuela and Cuba to Iran, just as it did even to forensic medicine. So naturally “Zaslon.” etc. – stand ready not only to when it was called the Soviet Union. and unshakably does the post-Soviet suppress insurrections inside the borders The Wall is down and the Cold War Russian regime cling to assassination as as in Chechnya, but also to strike down is over, but what has followed remains, an instrument of national security and foreign leaders and seize points of power at best, a Cold Peace. While we rightly foreign policy that in the year 2000 it in support of insurrections or Russian celebrate that event of 20 years ago, these published a book proudly describing – incursions abroad, such as that into signs from the secret “spy” world might without a word of reproach – dozens of Georgia in 2008. give us pause as we raise our glasses. these successful “special operations” Although the Berlin Wall fell and the abroad in Soviet times, lauding the Cold War ended, no signal went out from Tennent H. Bagley is author of Spy murderers as heroes. Moscow Center telling its representatives Wars: Moles, Mysteries, and Deadly Long after the fall of the Berlin Wall abroad to stop this sort of work. All carried Games and former Deputy Head of CIA one such unit, designated URPO, was on – and some of their results became counterintelligence against the Soviet Bloc.

96 The Atlantic Council A message from the Government of Italy

he Berlin Wall cut the city and, metaphorically, the world in half, becoming the most potent symbol of the Cold War. TIts fall, twenty years ago, remains the most iconic landmark of the end of totalitarianism in Europe and the symbol of what suddenly became possible. The peaceful reuniﬁcation of Germany, a wider EU membership, a larger transatlantic community, a stabilizing role for NATO as a security provider, a new relationship with Russia, a drastic reduction of nuclear weapons in Europe, a massive cut of defence budgets.

The events of twenty years ago changed the lives of Berlin’s citizens and of the German people. But that extraordinary result had an impact on Europe as a whole. It marked a new moral impulse for Europe to accomplish the dream of a peaceful continent-wide community founded on the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms and the that SACT, based in Norfolk, Virginia, is the only NATO footprint on rule of law. Italians have been at the forefront of the Alliance in US soil and it is headed today by two Europeans, French Admiral strengthening and rekindling the transatlantic bond within the Abrial, with Italian Admiral Zappata as his Deputy. new European and international environment, with the aim of consolidating a reunited and free Europe as their common home. As a strong regional bloc willing to contribute to the enhancement of international peace and to tackle today’s security challenges, Today, in an evolving, multi-polar geopolitical order, the focus is Europe has also been developing a capacity to take effective action shifting from Europe towards other regions. However, we should where Europeans share the same interests and objectives. not forget the achievements made in the aftermath of the Wall’s fall: a Europe reunited, whole and free, thanks largely to the The Union’s investment in building a credible common foreign farsighted NATO and EU enlargements. The same moral impulse and security policy is based on an enduring and unchallenged should drive us all to cope with new and sometimes unforeseen idealism strengthened by realism and pragmatism. The day when challenges that require a special determination in updating and the EU will set its own collective foreign policy priorities is not strengthening our security architectures. far off. Italy believes that this is the time for Europe to give more substance to its European security and defence policy, this is the First and foremost, I would like to refer to the North Atlantic time to focus on the Union’s strategic interests and become more Alliance as the main pillar and bedrock of transatlantic solidarity. strategic and more effective globally, this is the time to engage After having emerged from the long and dark days of the Cold War with International Organizations and other global powers, and this as a most powerful and successful community of free democracies, is the time for the EU to be a global actor. NATO has embodied the sound faith of Europeans and North Americans in the objective of a more stable and free world. Important anniversaries such as the one we celebrated on November 9, 2009 are there to help us not to forget what Europe The Alliance is our primary and strongest guarantee that the has overcome. But at the same time, they fuel our determination victory gained over the evils of war and slavery is irreversible. and political will. Italy’s people and government celebrate this For this reason, we must be prepared to cope with all kinds of anniversary with Germany and the rest of the transatlantic future challenges. This is precisely what NATO is currently doing, community, renewing their commitment to working together by updating the 1999 Security Concept so as to be ready to face to enhance NATO’s effectiveness in protecting the freedom and what the Supreme Allied Command for Transformation (SACT) security of the North Atlantic area, and to encourage the EU’s has described as “multiple (possible) futures”. It is worth noting capacity to cope with a more ambitious and global role. Frederick Kempe interviews James L. Jones, National Security Advisor to President Obama and former Chairman of the Atlantic Council Board of Directors

How do the challenges that face you Is it more perilous as well? today as National Security Advisor to It’s a more dangerous world. The reason President Obama compare to those I say that is because even with the threat that General Scowcroft faced 20 years of mutually assured destruction in the ago when the Cold War ended? 20th century, we managed to control The very concept of national security that. If you lose control of proliferation is much more expansive in the 21st issues and non-state organizations century than it was in the 20th century. acquire weapons of mass destruction, you In General Scowcroft’s time, national can’t control that. We rail against North security was really the province of Korea and Iran, legitimately, but they Secretary of Defense, of Secretary of State are nation-states. They have to behave and part of the State Department and the as nation-states. They are functioning National Security Council. Everybody in a world order that exists. We may not else was essentially a spectator. like what they’re doing, but they know In this new century, given the end of a the penalties should they acquire nuclear bipolar world, the end of a unipolar world weapons. The penalties of using them – multipolarity is with us. And national would be catastrophic for them. But security encompasses much more than terrorist organizations, they don’t have just the size of the Army, the Navy, the the same fear. Air Force, the Marine Corps and the State Department. It encompasses economic Of all the threats we face in the world, realities; it encompasses the asymmetric which is the one that keeps you up late challenges that face us in ways that have at night? replaced the threat of the Cold War of a It is this nuclear proliferation issue single entity on the other side of a well- involving non-state actors. defined border. Borders are not meaningless yet, but Is that danger growing? You appear to they’re certainly not as important as they be focusing on this issue more than you used to be in terms of confronting the did at the beginning of your tenure. threats that face us: proliferation, energy, I think the danger is omnipresent because climate, cyber security, the emergence of you don’t know to what extent other non-state actors, human trafficking and nation-states might be enabling these the economic effects of our policies all non-state actors to acquire such weapons contribute to defining national security. and capabilities. So the National Security Council of We also know acquiring these the 21st century is a much broader capabilities is a driving goal of these organization and has to deal with multiple organizations. They are pushing at it, and challenges that arrive every single day. you never know who’s enabling them to make progress. You can’t be everywhere Your job is more complicated than all the time. So it is something to be those of your predecessors who fought concerned about. I’m not really worried the Cold War? Is this period more about the nuclear aspect as much as I am complicated for U.S. leadership? the other biological, chemical and related Yes, it’s far more complicated with much threats, which are easier for them to get a more diverse challenges. hold of.

98 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 99 INTERVIEW over the next two decades is going to be Brazil, India and others. around the issue of competitiveness. We’ve We’ll have, hopefully, some JAMES L. JONES had a good run for over half a century. convergence with them on what our We’re very comfortable and are used to core security problems are: clean being number one. We took a little bit of energy, maintenance of the climate, a a dip over the last decade in terms of how lot of cohesion on the threats posed by people looked at us around the world, terrorists and the like. The world we live but we saw that this could be very quickly in is such a small place that we required a restored. The election of President Obama, convergence on the big issues of our time. What do you do about it? and the actions of the President, so far, I think we’re doing everything we can, at globally, have dramatically increased the How does NATO fit into this world you least nationally. There’s been a developing esteem in which we are held. are describing? cohesion among the security forces of NATO has served the cause of freedom this country that’s probably unparalleled What’s your view on the Nobel extraordinarily well. It was a key in our history in a short period of time. I Peace Prize? contributor to the Cold War’s end. think one of the reasons I worry about it The Nobel Peace Prize is not given It was an inspiration for what I have is because I know the successes we’ve had. lightly and I think it was given because called the “forgotten half of Europe,” Which means that there’s got to be more of the ability of the President to capture which is now seeing, after so many out there because we’re probably never the imagination of much of the world’s years, a Europe whole and free come to going to be 100 percent successful. population about the human potential fruition. The question now is how this here to live in peace, to forge better NATO reorganizes itself in such a way Can you give an example of that success? opportunities for our children and to hand to confront the asymmetric, multipolar The most recent ones suggest direct links over a better world for the next generation. world that we face and whether it will do from individuals here in this country That’s pretty inspirational. I know that the so in a manner that reflects the proactive going through the al-Qaeda network back President is determined to use the weight requirements of our time. NATO was into Pakistan. They’re still able to direct of the Nobel Prize to continue working conceived as a defensive, reactive alliance certain operations, although they’ve every day to advance a robust foreign that was never going to strike the first been disrupted. Fortunately, they haven’t policy agenda that seeks greater peace and blow. Being defensive and reactive carried out operations but it’s still a threat. prosperity around the world. against the array of multiple threats and challenges that face us every day is not a If you take a look at the role of the With this reduced relative power, is it good position to be in. military in this new world, with these harder for the U.S to get things done in sorts of threats, how does it differ the world? That’s a quite different NATO than from the world that brought us the We’ve seen it’s possible with the right style, what we have now. Cold War, the fall of the Wall? using the right way of doing things. My gut We’re not looking for a NATO to project its I think the role of the military is much feeling, however, is it is harder because militaries all over the world to fight. But I more diverse and much more complex the world is so complex. There are rising would say we’re interested in a NATO that because it’s got to be able to operate in competing powers. There are other sleeping is, through a series of interactions with not different environments. It’s no longer one giants that are coming up all at the same only member-states but states who wish to army. The army of NATO arranged against time: India, Brazil, China, the European have a working relationship with NATO on the army of the Warsaw Pact on either Union. Hopefully, our own hemisphere will the basis of mutual values and commonly side of the line of scrimmage, the border. also have a similar rebirth, to say nothing recognized threats, able to deter future The military forces of today have of the potential of Africa. By comparison, conflicts in their embryonic stages and to be very agile and able to operate in it was easy to get things done in a bipolar to take on the transnational threats that different environments, from guerrilla world. You had two big guys, two big face us in an asymmetrical way today: warfare to conventional war, from highly countries and everybody fell in line relatively terrorism, human trafficking, flow of specialized operations to some aspects of quickly. But now, it’s much murkier and you energy, protection of critical infrastructure nation-building. So they have to be better have to work much harder to arrive at the and proliferation. educated. They have to be able to project successes you wish to achieve. power when needed and project stability That’s a pretty radical rethink of when needed. The two are vastly different. The National Intelligence Council has NATO. Is that what you want to see in So we need our young people who are said in its Global Trends 2025 report the new strategic concept? out there to be nimble of mind and able that China will be the greatest single Yes. None of the things I just talked to understand the environment they’re new factor shaping affairs in the next about are in NATO’s mission portfolio working in, far more than ever before. 20 years. Will it do so as a rival or doctrinally right now. If NATO can a partner? achieve that through reform, then it Does the U.S. have the same leverage There’s going to be a little bit of will have relevance in the 21st century. it had at the Cold War’s end to achieve everything. Our relations with China If it doesn’t, then I think it could be a results? Are we losing some of our are developing and they’re developing testimony to the past but not much else. relative influence in the world because positively. China is going to be a friendly Engagement – General Scowcroft in his of our financial difficulties and the fact competitor. That’s what the world is interview for this publication talked a that other powers are rising? all about. That’s not something that we great deal about how the proper form of The world has changed. Perhaps the most should necessarily fear but we should engagement with Soviet leader Mikhail dramatic threat to our national well-being rise to the challenge. The same is true for Gorbachev under President Reagan and

100 The Atlantic Council President George H.W. Bush was crucial to ending the Cold War. President Obama has Engagement is a must in a also had a different view about engaging with adversaries than did his predecessor. globalized world… that aspect Engagement is a must in a globalized world. You do not have the luxury of time to sit back behind fortress America and of governance is definitely ponder excessively on what’s going on around you. The world’s moving too fast on the increase and there are too many challenges that are out there that need immediate attention. Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev watches the Because communication is so easy West 2009 military exercises at the Baltic fleet now, travel is much easier, the personal training ground at Khmelevka, outside Kaliningrad engagement at the head of state level, the time spent in working the issues is going to be much more frequent, much more demanding on heads of state in order to make good progress. And that’ll cascade down through the national structures as well. But I think that aspect of governance is definitely on the increase.

Iran is one place where U.S. engagement has increased. Russia is a far different situation, but we also have increased engagement through pushing what Vice President Biden called the “reset button.” How are those efforts going? This may sound simplistic, but I’ve always been struck by the fact that the way you conduct national relationships is not dissimilar to the way one develops personal relationships. It is important to establish a relationship based on mutual respect because that not only opens the door to working together, but also allows for disagreement to be expressed in a way that does not have to lead to conflict. What the President is looking to do people abroad to the President’s policy of as I wasn’t involved, but I know enough is to create opportunities for advancing engagement and his clear message that to say that the Russians perceived that United States interests through improved we seek cooperation to advance common they were mishandled. As usual, with epic relations, while standing firm on our interests and tackle common challenges. issues like this there’s probably criticism principles and national security interests. And I think that’s had, thus far, good effect. on both sides that would be fair. But of late, I think President Obama, thus far, is off particularly in the last decade or so, I’ve to a great start in re-establishing a basis Apply that to Iran? Some say it could personally felt that there was too much of for respectful, thoughtful, professional become the defining foreign policy an effort to characterize Russia as a country relations that are serving American issue of the Obama administration. that would never be an ally or a friend of interests around the globe – whether Both Iran and North Korea are, kind the West. And I’ve always felt that, at the we are talking about re-setting our of, in the same envelope. Proliferation. end of the day, Russia should be inside the relationship with Russia, establishing a They are two countries that have been Euro-Atlantic arc, as opposed to the outside strategic dialogue with China, building working toward nuclear technology and looking in. I think that’s what Russia wants stronger partnerships with countries like the weaponization of the technology and we’re now in the embryonic stages of India and Brazil, fostering even closer and the means to deliver them. That is reassessing – resetting, to use the exact word bonds with Europe, promoting prosperity anathema to a peaceful world order. And – a relationship that, hopefully, will lead to in our hemisphere and in Africa, and it could, if not checked, lead to an arms just that. Only time will tell, of course. engaging with the Muslim world. race in Asia and nuclear arms races in That’s why in his inaugural address Asia and the Persian Gulf. So this is General James L. Jones, USMC (Ret.) is he said we are open for discussion; we’ll serious business. National Security Advisor to President extend the hand of friendship but you’re Obama and former Chairman of the going to have to show you’re serious about And Russia? As we reflect on the 20th Atlantic Council Board of Directors. He it also. It’s a two-way street. anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall, was interviewed by Frederick Kempe, I have already seen great receptivity did we miss options with Russia? President and CEO of the Atlantic Council among his fellow world leaders and I can’t make an informed judgment on that of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 101

Global Threat Analysis Barry McCaffrey assesses the dangers facing the world today – from terrorist threats to climate change

e should reflect on up Kuwait in 1990. Better to confront the events of 20 years a cancer than to wait until it has ago, when totalitarian metastasized. Allowing nations with regimes in Eastern hostile intent towards their neighbors Europe and the former to generate overwhelming military SovietW Union collapsed as a result of strength and to then politically corner their inability to answer the basic needs their neighbors is a recipe for disaster. We of their people and could no longer learned that in the 1930s when Hitler was continue to subjugate neighboring not confronted by the great democracies. states. We should also not lose sight of However, there are some contemporary the fact that authoritarianism is still spheres of interest – such as Russia’s alive and well and that democratic gains “near abroad,” where there are are easily reversed when governments recognizable limits on the ability lose legitimacy as a result of failure to of distant nations to guarantee the meet the social, political, and economic sovereignty and independence of small aspirations of their people. In fact, non- states. Realism must temper idealism. democratic regimes pose some of the Unrealistic guarantees and unsound greatest contemporary global threats political-military pacts can result in that must be addressed. Global security is devastating conflict as we saw in World most effectively increased by expanding War I, which resulted in an estimated democracy and creating the conditions 16 million deaths. The consequences for equitable economic prosperity in all of being wrong today are potentially regions of the world. much more severe given the spread of The Warsaw Pact domination of Eastern nuclear weapons. Sober assessments of Europe and the concomitant threat to national interest must inform decisions Western Europe for almost half a century to continue or expand existing political- teach us that unchecked militarism can military alliances or establish new ones. overwhelm militarily and politically weak The greatest threat to the global nations that do not enjoy the protection community is a major conflict that involves offered by strong neighbors or allies. After the use of nuclear weapons, kills dozens World War II, the Soviet Union was able of millions of people, tears the fabric to occupy by force its smaller neighbors in that binds together the global economy, the absence of an effective international and causes enormous and irreversible response, just as Germany and Japan had worldwide environmental and social harm. done in the 1930s. Experts estimate that a nuclear conflict The global community must be between India and Pakistan could kill attentive today to the aspirations of 20 million within weeks and devastate would-be regional hegemons – such as both nations. Continued nuclear weapon Saddam Hussein’s attempt to swallow proliferation makes such catastrophic conflict more likely. The imminent or actual acquisition of nuclear weapons by hostile authoritarian If unchecked, terrorism could be regimes could result in pre-emptive strikes – such as the one conducted the catalyst for broader conflict against the Saddam Hussein regime –

104 The Atlantic Council Smoke and ﬂames billow from the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower Hotel in Mumbai, November 27, 2008. Gunmen killed at least 80 people in a series of attacks in India’s commercial hub

The Atlantic Council 105 The “Tribute in Lights” to prevent or destroy a threatening Terrorism is a staple of history illuminates the sky over lower nuclear capability. Unfortunately, (consider the example of the zealots of Manhattan on the eighth it appears that several nations have Judea who opposed Roman occupiers anniversary of the attack on the World Trade Center in New York concluded that the best defense against 2,000 years ago). Whether it is state- such attacks is to quickly acquire a sponsored – practiced by government demonstrable nuclear capability and security forces to subjugate their peoples delivery means. Inevitably, nuclear via unpredictable arrests, imprisonments, proliferation will result in mutually and killing (eg. Latin American destructive attacks whose consequences dictatorships in the 1970s, contemporary will not be limited to the belligerents. Iran, Soviet-styled communist regimes, All nations who would suffer from such or Nazi Germany) – or practiced by a catastrophe must act collectively to non-state entities, it must be confronted. prevent it. Terrorism cannot be eliminated, but it

106 The Atlantic Council We should view the longer term with cautious optimism

can be contained and suppressed. socio-economic-political breakdown, the Localized terrorist organizations will emergence of violent non-state actors, generally not present threats beyond and penetration by transnational criminal their immediate area of operations (eg. enterprises. Coordinated international the Baader-Meinhof Gang, FARC, IRA, developmental assistance programs that Sendero Luminoso). The level of threat harness both public- and private-sector they pose can increase as they gain access resources are essential to build both the to more destructive weapons or benefit institutional capacity and the physical from support from friendly organizations infrastructure required to provide good or regimes (eg. Libyan provision of governance, build political legitimacy, and explosives to the IRA). create viable and resilient nation states. If unchecked, terrorism could be the Environmental factors also clearly pose catalyst for broader conflict, as occurred significant global threats. While the long- in 1914 when a single terrorist bullet term consequences of climate change pose precipitated World War I. There was enormous future challenges, it is unlikely significant concern last year that the alleged that global consensus can be reached in linkage of the terrorists who conducted the near-term to make the collective and the attack in Mumbai to organizations equitable economic sacrifices required to tolerated by the Government of Pakistan curtail human activities that contribute could have precipitated a devastating to global warming. Self interest and Indian-Pakistani conflict. persistent economic inequity will prevent Terrorist organizations with broader nations from acting in a coherent long- agendas, such as al-Qaeda, cannot be term strategy. Instead, it is much more ignored. If they benefit from significant likely that an economic incentive – such resources from sponsor states or as an irreversible and staggering rise in oil criminal enterprise, they could gain prices – or a technological breakthrough access to weapons of mass destruction. (eg. a drastically cheaper way of generating Few countries would be able to mitigate and storing renewable, green energy) will the devastating consequences of a precipitate the societal reorganization nuclear attack. Contemporary terrorist required to live in equilibrium with our organizations are unconstrained by fragile environment. traditional considerations of morality and In conclusion, the challenges we face decency. What was historically outrageous are many. Reasons for pessimism are is now commonplace. Safe havens for overwhelming in the near term. However, such organizations cannot be tolerated. we should view the longer term with The global community must seek to cautious optimism. When I was an understand the causes of extremism and infantry battalion commander staring radicalization and develop programs to down our Warsaw Pact counterparts counter them in order to mitigate the across the Fulda Gap in the 1970s, few terrorist threat. predicted that the Berlin Wall would The breakdown or absence of the rule fall in just 10 years. No one could have of law is also a significant global threat. anticipated that economic prosperity Simply stated, bad things happen where and democracy would flourish in Soviet- the nation states’ rule of law is weakest. occupied Eastern Europe. Our task today What comes from the breakdown of the is to identify and attain the possible, rule of law is genocide; drug cultivation, recognize and avoid the catastrophic, and manufacturing, and trafficking; avoid repeating the mistakes that have led environmental degradation; international to disaster in the past. financial fraud; piracy; and terrorism. States where the power of central Barry McCaffrey served in the United government is weakest can become States Army for 32 years and retired as the bases for non-state actors, some of a four-star General. He is currently the which seek to act globally (eg. al-Qaeda President of McCaffrey Associates, LLC in Afghanistan) or locally (pirates in and serves as an Adjunct Professor of Somalia, FARC guerrillas in Ecuador). International Affairs at the U.S. Military Countries with limited resources, weak Academy at West Point. He is also a institutions of government, and ethnic Member of the Board of the Atlantic fissures are particularly vulnerable to Council of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 107 A Shared Vision

Energy security, climate change issues, and the global economy are crucial to trans-Atlantic energy cooperation. By John R. Lyman and Mihaela Carstei

nergy policies have long been a percentage of overall budgets over the last trans-Atlantic partnership to change cornerstone of trans-Atlantic 15 years. current trends. cooperation. From rebuilding Legislation in both the United States The current global political debate energy infrastructure after and Europe Union is beginning to change is focused on the economic impacts of World War II to cooperating the fundamental structure of their energy addressing climate change and energy Eon developing smart grid technologies, portfolio. The U.S. has revised its energy security. Pressure is growing to increase energy is essential to nations on both sides laws in the last several years. The Energy energy cooperation across the globe in of the Atlantic. This is increasingly true Independence and Security Act of 2007 an attempt to address these issues. The as these nations attempt to combat the covers more than 900 separate provisions world needs leadership to address issues effects of climate change, which is rapidly to improve energy security. Still under such as the establishment of global market becoming a global threat. To understand debate is “The American Clean Energy and rules and standards for the energy sector, what direction the trans-Atlantic energy Security Act”, a piece of legislation meant cooperation on improving energy cooperation will undertake, we need to as a comprehensive approach to America’s efficiency, and the advancement of first understand past strategies. energy policy, charting a new course renewable energy sources. Historically, energy use on both towards a clean energy economy. Indeed, these issues have been the focus sides of the Atlantic has largely rested European energy policy has also begun to of many international meetings, going as far on three fundamental elements. First, fundamentally change in nature. The 2007 as the G8 and G20 Summits. World leaders transportation in the United States and “Energy Policy for Europe” notes “the point clearly recognize the need for improved Europe is predominantly based on oil, and of departure for a European Energy policy energy security, investment in clean energy this reliance is projected to continue. The is threefold: combating climate change, sources, promoting green growth, and a U.S. currently consumes 47.3 million barrels limiting the EU’s external vulnerability to commitment to reduce greenhouse gas per day and demand in Europe equals 24.9 imported hydrocarbons, and promoting emissions. However, future cooperation million barrels per day. growth and jobs, thereby providing security may be obstructed by diverging responses Second, the majority of electricity and affordable energy to consumers.” This to climate change and energy security. production comes from carbon-intensive policy, coupled with the EU’s Emissions The trans-Atlantic community should to sources. The U.S. and EU currently rely on Trade Scheme, is creating significant develop a series of common, compatible natural gas, coal and oil for 86.4 and 78.1 changes in Europe’s energy policies. and complementary strategies that seek to percent respectively, of primary energy In addition to legislative advances, coordinate action on climate change and requirements. further cooperation is needed to address energy security. Third, government spending has energy security and climate change. The The first step was the establishment been insufficient in supporting energy U.S. and the EU account for approximately of the U.S.-EU Energy Council on research and development. Any efforts to 40 percent of the world’s energy November 4, 2009. Subsequent actions stem climate change and increase energy consumption and almost 40 percent of must also include: creating stricter energy

security require a signiﬁcant expansion of CO2 emissions. Current energy usage is efﬁciency standards, developing smart funding for basic research, development, unsustainable from an environmental grid technology, harmonizing renewable and demonstration projects. Allocations to and energy security perspective, which portfolio standards, increased coordination these types of projects have declined as a underpins the need for a new strategic on transportation standards, greater

108 The Atlantic Council Energy security and climate change will be the catalyst for renewed trans-Atlantic cooperation

incentives for the automobile and utility industries, and increasing research and development levels. While the purview of these policies may be large, the trans- Atlantic community will only be able to effectively combat the effects of climate change by implementing these common compatible and complementary strategies. Forging a durable global consensus will prove difﬁcult, perhaps impossible, if the United States and Europe cannot overcome their differences. Present trends forecast world energy demand to increase over 50 percent by 2030, and global oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.6 percent a year. The trans- Atlantic community should lead the way in building an energy economy that is secure, environmentally responsible, and conducive to economic growth and prosperity around the globe. Together, the trans-Atlantic community can help shape the post-petroleum world of the 21st century. Just as the Berlin Wall signiﬁed a galvanizing threat for the trans-Atlantic community, energy security and climate change will be the catalyst for renewed trans-Atlantic cooperation. As the world faces this new existential threat, our shared values and common interests will lead the way helping to build an energy economy that will ensure global prosperity and security for years to come.

John R. Lyman is a member of the board of the Atlantic Council of the United States, and Co-Director of the Energy, Queuing to buy gas in Manila, 2009: Environment and Economics Program. world energy demand is expected Mihaela Carstei is Assistant Director of to rise by more than 50 percent over the next 20 years the Energy and Environment Program of the Atlantic Council of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 109 A Dangerous Future

Charles F. Wald, Sherri Goodman, and David M. Catarious, Jr. explain why climate change and energy security are key to stability in the 21st century

s 2009 marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, it also marks the beginning of a new era of challenges posed by threatsA that were little recognized and less appreciated those 20 short years ago: climate change and energy security. Simply put – as a matter of science and as a matter of military assessment, planning and preparedness – the fact of global climate change and the challenges of energy security pose serious risks to the stability of many regions of the world. And these two interwoven security threats will dominate and shape the state of nations in the decades to come. That is not wild speculation but the sober assessment of the CNA-convened Military Advisory Board (MAB) which first raised this issue in its 2007 report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change1. The MAB found that climate change has the potential to create instability in economic, environmental, and social issue areas, acting as a “threat multiplier,” particularly in the most fragile regions of the world. As well-documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most direct impacts of climate change will be on the environment, specifically manifesting through: retreating glaciers, rising seas, hurricanes and storms of increasing severity, floods, heat waves, drying soils, drought, shifting habitats, the spread of diseases. The victims of these changes will be the people living in these environments. Those populations will face such life- threatening consequences as vastly

110 The Atlantic Council reduced water supplies, decreasing long-term agricultural productivity, ill In Asia, fresh water for hundreds health, and mass migrations forced by the changing environment. That is what is of millions of people comes meant by “threat multiplier” and as those impacts are felt, regional states will begin to understand they lack the capacity to from glaciers that may not adapt to the effects of climate change. The threats will multiply again as resentment exist by mid-century builds toward the developed world, which will be seen as responsible for spawning the climate crisis. contaminate aquifers, reducing precious crisis response missions launched by the Many nations in Asia, Africa, and the fresh water resources in the region. In international community. Middle East already stagger under the Africa, many trace the genocide in Darfur Perhaps the most dangerous and weight of extreme poverty, pervasive hunger, to the impacts of climate change, and land destabilizing potential result of climate social unrest, and political instability that now supports crops and animals is change is mass migration. As the world’s – all of which climate change will only quietly, inexorably, turning to desert. population continues to grow (an increase exacerbate, further eroding the legitimacy For weakened and failing governments, of more than a billion people in just the of many governments and heightening conditions wrought by climate change past 12 years), migratory pressures become international security concerns. will lead to a rise in extremism, internal a major concern even without the added In Asia, fresh water for hundreds of conﬂicts, radical ideologies, and pressures brought on by extreme climate millions of people comes from glaciers authoritarianism – all of which are likely conditions. But with climate change added that may not exist by mid-century. In to lead to a dramatic increase in the to the equation, the problem has the the Middle East, rising seas threaten to number of humanitarian-assistance and potential to increase exponentially.

The Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St-Laurent makes its way through the ice in Bafﬁn Bay, Canada, July 2008. As the Arctic ice thins, nations are keen to claim previously trapped resources and newly thawed trade routes. Competition for these areas is likely to increase, as are disputes

The Atlantic Council 111 Left: Denmark’s Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen speaks at the summit on climate change at the United Nations in New York, January 22, 2009

Right: a worker clears coal from railway tracks at a mine in Dadong, Shanxi province, China. With inexpensive fossil fuel expected to end soon, industry around the globe needs to address energy issues

That is because as the ice thins, NATO Department of Defense can contribute The complex members – including the United States, to national solutions as a technological Canada, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark, innovator, early adopter, and test-bed. in competition with each other and with challenge posed Russia – are scrambling to claim the At present, the U.S. and nearly resources trapped for millennia beneath every other nation on the globe are by a warming frozen waters. (In 2007, Russia staked uncomfortably tied to the oil- and gas- its claim by planting its flag 14,000 feet rich countries of the world. This leaves below the North Pole). And with the us continually vulnerable to supply earth is further no-longer-ice-bound Northwest Passage disruptions (a weakness that has not emerging as a viable trade route, legal gone unnoticed by terrorist and criminal complicated by disputes and competition for resources organizations) and complicates our could also increase. nation’s foreign policy decisions by The complex challenge posed by a forcing unwelcome compromises on such the other great warming Earth is further complicated by issues as human rights and democracy. the other great challenge of this era: energy Myriad other reasons (including challenge of security. The age of inexpensive fossil mitigation of climate change) dictate we energy will end soon – within decades – move away from carbon-emitting fuels. But and well before the world is prepared to one of the most practical is the fact that at this era: energy deal with its demise. So as we struggle to some point, perhaps soon, the world’s oil manage the impacts of climate change, we supply will no longer meet demand. security must also adjust to a fundamental change Simple prudence dictates that we face in the way we use energy. this reality now. To sustain the rate of This issue was also assessed by CNA’s global progress enjoyed during the 20th Military Advisory Board in its report century, new, secure and sustainable Powering America’s Defense: Energy and sources of energy must be developed that Nations unable to respond and adapt the Risks to National Security2. Released are readily accessible and affordable. to the impacts of climate change will, by in May 2009, the report’s clearly stated The size and scope of the challenges default, force citizens to, literally, seek findings constitute their own set of we face must not prevent us from taking greener pastures. Migrations within challenges that America must address, action to guard against what is likely nations and regions, and across borders beginning now: to be a dangerous future. And while and continents, are hugely destabilizing 1) Our nation’s current energy posture we cannot prevent all the negative events – for the nations being evacuated is a serious and urgent threat to our consequences of climate change and and those being populated. Disorder, national security, with U.S. dependence energy challenges, we can, by acting poverty, disenfranchisement, cultural on oil undermining our national now, ensure a better future for the clashes, overtaxed social welfare security on multiple fronts, and our generations that follow us. mechanisms; all are consequences of outdated, fragile and overtaxed national human migrations from have-not nations, electrical grid existing as a dangerously General Charles F. Wald, USAF and are serious challenges to be faced in weak link in our national security (Ret.) is former Deputy Commander, the decades ahead by many, if not all, of infrastructure. Headquarters U.S. European Command the haves. 2) A business-as-usual approach to energy and Chairman, CNA Military Advisory Many other strategic challenges lie security poses an unacceptably high Board. He is also a Director of the Atlantic ahead. The thawing Arctic ice cap, for threat level from a series of converging Council of the United States. example, may be the first test of climate risks. Sherri Goodman is CNA Senior Vice change impacts. As NATO Secretary 3) Achieving energy security in a carbon- President & General Counsel and General de Hoop Scheffer said in January constrained world is possible, but Executive Director, CNA Military 2009, “Here in the High North, climate will require concerted leadership and Advisory Board. change is not a fanciful idea, it is already a continuous focus. David M. Catarious, Jr., PhD is Study reality … [and] … although the long-term 4) The national security planning Director, CNA Military Advisory Board. implications of climate change and the processes have not been sufficiently retreating ice cap in the Arctic are still responsive to the security impacts of 1 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, CNA, unclear, what is very clear is that the High our current energy posture. April 2007. Available at CNA.org North is going to require even more of the 5) In the course of addressing its most 2 Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Alliance’s attention in the coming years.” serious energy challenges, the U.S. Security, CNA May 2009. Available at CNA.org

112 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 113 Completing Europe

n the wake of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, “Europe whole, free and at peace” was not just a vision; it was a successful policy leading to the consolidation of democracy Iin Central and Eastern Europe and the integration of the region into Europe’s great institutions. This outcome was neither easy nor obvious. The same bipartisan leadership demonstrated over the past 20 years is required today to “complete Europe” – that is, to finish the unfinished business of integrating the western Balkans and Eastern Europe into the European mainstream, including ultimately the European Union and NATO. However, on this anniversary of the beginning of the end of a dividing line in Europe, we are missing the vision and the policy to extend this great success story to the south and east. Europe is moving forward with the goal of assisting nations in the Balkans to advance the reforms necessary to find a home in Europe and to turn their backs – like much of the rest of Europe – on a bloody history of ethnic violence. To their credit, European leaders have embraced the vision that the region does indeed belong in Europe, without denying how far societies in the region have to travel. Slovenia was the first to blaze the path. Croatia, Albania, Macedonia and now Montenegro are moving at varying speeds in the right direction. Serbia’s population is poised to make the right strategic choice. Bosnia’s leaders run the risk of letting their country be left behind. While Bosnia is particularly challenging, there is a European consensus, albeit fragile, that if a nation in the region gets its act together, there can be a place for it within Europe. The vision exists even if the strategy is on a slow track. Yet this consensus breaks down looking East. In fact, since Russia and Georgia went to war in August 2008, it has become conventional wisdom that too much Western outreach to Georgia and Ukraine is understandably provocative toward

A Russian military convoy passes local residents, outside Gori, Georgia, August 13, 2008. Russian tanks, troops and paramilitaries rolled into the strategic Georgian city, apparently smashing an EU-brokered truce designed to end the conﬂict that uprooted tens of thousands and scarred the Georgian landscape

114 The Atlantic Council Damon Wilson looks at the strategies needed to achieve a Europe that is whole, free and at peace

The Atlantic Council 115 Russia. Russia has after all declared its “privileged interests” in the region. The West should welcome Imagine if Western leaders had accepted that argument regarding the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. joining forces with Russia These nations, now perceived as obvious members of the European Union and to tackle global challenges NATO, might have been forced to follow a different path. Then what’s different now with Ukraine price for perhaps too decisive leadership. while dealing with Russian efforts to and Georgia? And then there is Russia. The Russia undermine their progress. Certainly, Georgia and Ukraine are that was irritated by the Baltic states, or The West is not on the sidelines. The harder cases. The transitions to which even Poland, joining NATO, is not the European Union, with Swedish and Polish these nations aspire are more profound. Russia of today. Cooperation with the West leadership, has launched the Eastern Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary used to be a source of domestic strength Partnership to strengthen ties with in many respects rejoined the European for post-communist Russian leaders. neighbors who were once part of the Soviet tradition of much of their history, including Unfortunately, in recent years, the inverse Union. While details of the partnership building on pre-war democratic traditions has become true. Confrontation with remain to be defined, it offers the prospect and free markets. Even the Baltic states the West has become a powerful source of a credible mechanism to help these achieved their transitions building on the of political strength for Russian leaders societies pursue the transformation legacy of their independence in the 1920s at home as Russia has moved away from required to draw closer to the West, much and 1930s. European democratic values. as NATO’s Partnership for Peace did in While Georgia and Ukraine have both The Russia of today is exerting its the 1990s. The EU’s soft power approach had periods of national consciousness and privileged interests – diplomatic niceties could prove ingenious. Judging by Russia’s independence, they have not benefited for a sphere of influence – in the region, critical reaction to the EU initiative, from historical traditions rooted in the is asserting its right to defend Russians Moscow believes the Eastern Partnership mainstream of European political and wherever they may live, and is working to will be more effective than many of the economic development. Furthermore, rollback democratic progress in Georgia detractors who fear it is too vague. Ukraine has lacked decisive, effective and Ukraine seen as a challenge to the NATO, however, seems like a deer caught leadership during its transition, Moscow model. in headlights. Yes, the Alliance did agree exacerbated by divisions within the Georgia and Ukraine clearly have more at the Bucharest summit that Georgia and Ukrainian public about where the country to transform than their neighbors to the Ukraine will become members of NATO. should be headed. Georgia, which enjoys west did during their transitions. And And in the absence of agreement on a a population united behind a vision of yet, Georgia and Ukraine are seeking to Membership Action Plan for either, Allies Georgia as part of the West, has paid a high achieve the success of these neighbors launched a NATO-Georgia Commission to

A gas pipeline near the town of Boyarka, near Kiev. Former Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko on February 12, 2008 in Moscow amid crunch talks on averting a cut in Russian gas supplies to the neighboring state

116 The Atlantic Council parallel the NATO-Ukraine Commission as an alternative means to help these nations reform and prepare for eventual membership. Yet, most NATO allies believe it taboo to put too much meat on the bones of these cooperation efforts. In fact, Moscow is succeeding in imposing a de facto arms embargo on Georgia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, by dissuading Western nations from maintaining normal military-to- military cooperation with these nations. Ultimately, completing Europe is not about NATO and EU enlargement. Rather, it is about assisting societies in Europe’s East so that they succeed in their efforts to embrace the values and practices of the European mainstream – democracy, free markets, open media, individual liberties, rule of law, etc. As these societies transform, discussion of and then decisions about membership in the EU and NATO should follow. Clearly, the burden is on the leaders and populations of Georgia and Ukraine to make the difﬁcult choices that their Central and Eastern European neighbors have taken over the past 20 years. But the West has an equally important role to articulate and back a vision that makes clear that if societies transform, they will ﬁnd a home in a Europe whole, free and at peace. Russia also deserves a place within this vision. As a diminishing commodity in an ever-globalizing world, the West should welcome joining forces with Russia to tackle global challenges. The Obama administration is seeking such cooperation with its pragmatic “reset” policy. And yet realism about (an authoritarian) Russia today should neither create shortcuts for Russia to join our community of values nor deny opportunities to support transition and pluralism within Russia. Russia’s citizens need to know that if their society becomes more democratic and embraces rule of law, a more profound partnership with Europe and North America will follow. In the meantime, only with a clear vision is there a realistic prospect that tough decisions on reform will produce the desired results on integration. NATO and the EU have long served as engines of reform for nations aspiring to join their ranks. That engine only runs, however, when fueled by vision. “Europe whole, free and at peace” remains a valid vision and policy. It’s time for a new generation of leaders in Europe and North America to apply this strategy and extend this opportunity unequivocally to the western Balkans and Europe’s East.

Damon Wilson is Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at the Atlantic Council; formerly

Special Assistant to the President and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (left) holds talks with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Senior Director for European Affairs at Tymoshchenko (right) in Moscow on April 29, 2009. Tymoshchenko said that Kiev and Moscow had put the National Security Council. behind them disputes over their vital energy trade, after cut-offs in January affected a swathe of EU states

The Atlantic Council 117 Bonﬁre of the Certainties

George Robertson tells Simon Michell how the fall of the Berlin Wall brought in a period of confusion that saw a transformation in the role and mission of NATO

ccording to former NATO revenge on their former masters. People clearly thought that the interpreter had Secretary General Lord had visions of a sort of Northern Ireland gone completely mad and that she could Robertson, it is the way in scenario, only on a grand scale.” not actually be saying these things.” which the transition from It was, then, a stroke of enormous good Looking back on those years Lord a fractured to a unified fortune that the NATO Secretary General Robertson insists that it is important EuropeA came about that makes it so presiding over these events was himself a that we remember the truth about what extraordinary. He admits, like most if German, Manfred Wörner. happened and who really said and did not all of his contemporaries, he did not “He was a genius. He recognized what. “We should try not to rewrite history see it coming and even viewed those who immediately that NATO would be able to and airbrush things out. People tend to demanded it as being a bit odd. Those help the East transition peacefully. It was forget that even Churchill had his critics. in the House of Commons who spoke in down to him that NATO was able to react Many people forget that Lord Halifax terms of a reunified Europe and called in such a brilliant way.” persistently and doggedly called for Britain specifically for the freedom of oppressed It was Wörner who proposed the to negotiate with Germany. In a less nations were viewed with amusement. Partnership for Peace process, which dramatic way, the former British Defence “Sir Bernard Braine comes to mind,” was so instrumental in bringing about a Secretary, Denis Healy, cautioned against says Lord Robertson. “He was the one change that was, by and large, devoid of NATO expansion, saying that it would who was constantly calling for the turbulence and violence. The reason for weaken the bonds of unity.” freedom of the Baltic States and was this, according to Lord Robertson, was that This caution, however, seems to ignore consequently regarded as a bit of an the Warsaw Pact countries feared NATO, the fact that throughout its 60-year history eccentric – almost as if he believed that but they also respected it. They recognized NATO has always followed a policy of the Earth was flat.” Lord Robertson even that it was a force to be reckoned with. “So enlargement. In 1952 it invited Greece recalls asking the governing Mayor of when NATO held out a helping hand and and Turkey to join, and later, in 1955, less West Berlin, Richard von Weizsäcker, if, spoke to them, they listened.” than six years after NATO’s formation, by 2001, he would be able to walk through Despite NATO’s obvious success in it invited former enemy, West Germany, the Brandenburg Gate. The response was aiding the transition, there were still some to join its ranks – against significant an emphatic “no.” in the West speaking against the level of opposition. Likewise, as soon as Spain It was this backdrop of almost universal NATO involvement, who saw the breakup had transformed itself into a liberal acceptance of the status quo that brought of the Soviet Union, and the reunification democracy, following General Franco’s about a state of panic and confusion of Germany especially, as something to be death, it too was welcomed into the fold. when it became clear what was actually avoided at all costs. However, they were So when the former Warsaw Pact happening in the East. “There was quickly becoming a very small minority. countries asked to become members, it undoubtedly a sense of joy when the Berlin Lord Robertson attended a lunch held by was not something that NATO hadn’t Wall fell,” says Lord Robertson, admitting Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher given faced before. Of course, there was some to having tears in his eyes when he saw in honor of the Polish Prime Minister, trepidation and soul-searching within the historic TV footage of the Wall being Tadeusz Mazowiecki. The lunch was the existing member governments. breached on the evening news. “However, memorable for the way that Thatcher This explains to some degree why an there was also a feeling of impending addressed Mazowiecki, saying that both incremental process was adopted with doom. People spoke in apocalyptic terms. Great Britain and Poland knew only too the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland There was an expectation of massive well what happens when you have a united being chosen as the first countries to join disruption and bloodshed as those who Germany. Lord Robertson chuckles when in 1999. The significant émigré populations had been oppressed for decades took he remembers Mazowiecki’s reaction. “He from these countries domiciled in the U.S.

118 The Atlantic Council Former NATO Secretary General George Robertson briefs the media prior to leaving Alliance headquarters in Brussels, December 17, 2003

helped to oil the wheels for this expansion and prepare for the next wave of countries that joined in 2004 – Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. The enlargement process continues. In 2009 Albania and Croatia joined NATO, and Macedonia has also been set conditions to become a member. Lord Robertson is a committed supporter of the enlargement process. “Enlargement has strengthened NATO because it has brought in nations who were previously opponents, it has fortified their transformations and it has given a huge political boost for an Alliance transformed out of all recognition. “There is no specific end to the enlargement process. You cannot say to countries which have made the changes that would qualify them that NATO is full up. The key criterion will be ensuring that all new additions add value and do not, by their membership, render NATO less than the organization they so keenly want to join.” Turning back to the events that made the last waves of enlargement possible, Lord Robertson reflects that what happened during those years was a revolution – albeit a bloodless one. “What started on the border of Hungary just snowballed into a complete revolution. It was not a violent, hysterical bloody one, but a fundamentally radical one. It transformed Eastern Europe from a region of command economies and military dictatorships, where people were denied freedom of thought and assembly, into free nations, growing and prospering in a way that had hitherto seemed impossible.” Ultimately, NATO helped that happen because of its inherent strength. The former Warsaw Pact countries respected it and wanted to become members. They recognized that the collective defense that it offered the West could be expanded to include them.

The Rt Hon Lord George Robertson of Port Ellen KT GCMG Hon FRSE PC, is a former Secretary General of NATO; Deputy Chairman, TNK-BP; Senior International Advisor, Cable & Wireless International and a member of the International Advisory Board of the Atlantic Council of the United States.

The Atlantic Council 119 Europe in the World of 2025

As dramatic as global change has been since the Berlin Wall’s fall, hold your seats for an ever more dramatic period ahead. Mathew J. Burrows reports

he global transformation is as occurred in 1914-1918 when an earlier it perceives its global role. Continued being fueled by a globalizing phase of globalization came to a halt. failure to convince skeptical publics of the economy, marked by an However, the next 20 years of transition benefits of deeper economic, political, and historic shift of relative wealth toward a new international system are social integration and to grasp the nettle and economic power from fraught with risks. These risks include the of an aging population by enacting painful TWest to East, and by the increasing weight growing prospect of a nuclear arms race reforms could leave the EU a hobbled of new players – especially China and in the Middle East and possible interstate giant distracted by internal bickering and India. Concurrent with the shift in power conflicts over resources. The breadth of competing national agendas, and less among nation states, the relative power transnational issues requiring attention able to translate its economic clout into of various non-state actors – including also is increasing to include issues global influence. businesses, tribes, religious organizations, connected with resource constraints The drop-off in working-age and even criminal networks – will in energy, food, and water; and worries populations could prove a severe test continue to increase. By 2025, as about climate change. Global and regional for Europe’s social welfare model, a written in the U.S. National Intelligence institutions that could help the world foundation stone of Western Europe’s Community’s recent work on global deal with these transnational issues and, political cohesion since World War II. We trends, the international community will more generally, mitigate the risks of rapid fear progress on economic liberalization be composed of many actors in addition to change, currently appear incapable of is likely to continue only in gradual steps nation states, but will lack an overarching rising to the challenges without concerted until aging populations or prolonged approach to global governance that might efforts by their leaders. economic stagnation force more dramatic harness their efforts. The rapidly changing international changes. There are no easy fixes for The international “system” will be order at a time of growing geopolitical Europe’s demographic deficits. Defense multipolar with many clusters of both challenges increases the likelihood of expenditures also risk being cut to stave state and non-state actors. Multipolar shocks and surprises. No single outcome off the need for serious restructuring of international systems, such as the 19th seems preordained: the European and social benefits programs. century Concert of Europe, have existed Western model of economic liberalism, The challenge of integrating immigrant, in the past, but the one that is emerging democracy and secularism, for example, especially Muslim communities, may is unprecedented because it is global and which many assumed to be inevitable, also become acute. Slow overall growth encompasses a mix of state and non-state may lose some of its luster in this rates, highly regulated labor markets, actors. The most salient characteristics multipolar world. and workplace policies, if maintained, of the new order are likely to be the shift For Europe, it will be challenging could make it difficult to increase job from a unipolar world dominated by the to develop itself in the midst of these opportunities, despite Europe’s need United States, to a relatively unstructured tectonic shifts into a cohesive, integrated to stem the decline of its working-age hierarchy of old powers and rising and influential global actor able to employ population. We continue to believe that nations, and the diffusion of power from independently a full spectrum of political, the question of Turkey’s EU membership state to non-state actors. The transition economic and military tools in support will be a test of Europe’s outward focus. isn’t likely to be smooth or easy. of European and Western interests and Increasing doubts about Turkey’s chances History tells us that rapid change universal ideals. The European Union are likely to slow its implementation brings many dangers. Despite the recent would need to resolve a perceived of political and human rights reforms. economic recession, which could end democracy gap dividing Brussels from Any outright rejection risks wider up accelerating many of these ongoing European voters and move past the repercussions, reinforcing arguments trends, I do not believe that we are protracted debate about its institutional in the Muslim world – including among headed toward a complete breakdown, structures into one more focused on how Europe’s Muslim minorities – about the

120 The Atlantic Council incompatibility of the West and Islam. Whether regional and global institutions – including the EU – adapt and revive is likely to be a function of leadership and flexibility. Most of the pressing transnational problems, including climate change, regulation of globalized financial markets, migration, failing states and crime networks are unlikely to be effectively resolved by the actions of individual nation states. The need for effective global governance is likely to increase faster than existing mechanisms can respond. Leaders everywhere, not just in Europe, will likely have to pursue alternative approaches to solving transnational problems with many informal groups. In response to likely deficits in global governance, networks will have to form among states and non- state actors focused on specific issues. These networks will operate to pursue convergent goals and interests, including a genuine intent to solve problems, business self-interest, moral grounds, and the desire of institutions and non-governmental organizations to be relevant to the problems facing a changing world. Looking forward, the international system, as constructed largely by Europe and America following World War II, will be almost unrecognizable by 2025. Indeed, “international system” is a misnomer as it is likely to be more ramshackle than orderly, its composition hybrid and heterogeneous as befits a transition that will still be a work in progress in 2025.

Mathew J. Burrows is a Counselor in the A busy shopping street in Istanbul. National Intelligence Council. The views Doubts over Turkey’s European Union membership may reinforce expressed are those of the author and not arguments in the Muslim world that ofﬁcial U.S. government views. the West is incompatible with Islam

The Atlantic Council Stratcon 2010: A Military Route to Freedom?

An Afghan police ofﬁcer near the site of a blast in Herat, west of Kabul, Afghanistan, September 27, 2009: Afghanistan and Iraq have demonstrated that military operations need political legitimization to succeed As NATO establishes a new Strategic Concept, the Alliance is re-focusing on its political and military purpose: to defend freedom in the face of those without ethics. By Julian Lindley-French

122 The Atlantic Council reedom is under threat the jefhe`[Yji[Ykh_jomehbZm_Z[ the task-list implied by today’s security world over, just as NATO begins through new power partnerships with environment is so long and complex the search for a new Strategic cornerstone security states. that only with a new civil-military Concept (Stratcon 2010). This Therefore, if NATO’s armed forces are partnership will strategic terrorists threat is posed by a dangerous to be properly prepared for success in be denied bases of operations, and Fnew cocktail of terrorism, weapons of such a struggle, conceptual clarity at the NATO must be front and center of mass destruction, information technology outset will be essential, about the role such developments. and enormous flows of illicit capital in a of armed forces and thus the Alliance in Given the insecurity of modern Western global struggle between the state and the preserving freedom in the face of a range society in the face of terror, there is anti-state. Be it the challenge posed by of risks and threats. Unfortunately, old unlikely to be credible power projection the radically old or those, particularly in ideas about the preservation of state without credible homeland protection, Europe, who endeavor to wish away the integrity assumed a threat from another and in Europe in particular that can only competition between new and old ideas that state organized along similar lines. be afforded through a new and pragmatic is implicit and endemic in strategic affairs. However, the dark side of globalization homeland security relationship between In this struggle, the experience of is one in which state borders are as much the EU and NATO, much of which require Western armed forces in both Iraq and virtual as physical, and security and synergy between criminal and military Afghanistan has emphasized a gap between defense merge into the need to protect intelligence through NATO. Equally, the military victory and political stability that people – not just from threat, but the need to project credible military stabilizing has left many of NATO’s political leaders very fear of threat which weakens resolve power will likely grow and that in turn unsure as to the role of the Alliance and and cohesion. will require new power partnerships with its armed forces in contemporary grand In such an environment, the utility partner states in Asia (India, Japan and strategy. This has led to political defeatism of armed forces is not just in the possibly China), Africa (South Africa, in many NATO capitals at a time when fighting power they can bring to bear Nigeria, Kenya), Latin America (Argentina financial constraint, stabilization fatigue on open contact with threat, but as and Brazil), Australasia (Australia) and, and political correctness are combining an organizing and planning nexus to of course, Russia. However, Russia must to undermine the one truism that must be both prevent threat becoming danger once and for all decide if it is part of the defended: namely, that the world is safest and coping with the consequences of Alliance’s security mission or a challenge when the Western democracies are credible purveyors of strategic stability, founded on a credible, commonality of purpose backed up with both diplomatic and military tools Front and center of Stratcon 2010 self-evidently up to the job. That is why the crafting of a new Strategic Concept will be critical. First, must be the modernization of it must re-establish a contract between the political leadership and the security NATO’s military Standards and military practitioners that support it, so that NATO can, once again, be restored as the cornerstone of the liberal- such danger. No other organization to it. The invasion of Georgia was anti- democratic security system for which the in society possesses those attributes, freedom and NATO must resist such Cold War was fought. Second, credible and thus the military role of NATO adventurism firmly. military power remains and will remain will be to ensure that armed forces Front and center of Stratcon 2010 must the foundation of credible power just at go about their business in such a way be the modernization and exporting of the moment when Western armed forces that they can come together effectively NATO’s military Standards. Indeed, if are grappling with a new form of warfare. and at short notice to act as levers transformation is to become smart and Hybrid warfare will see NATO’s armed for a comprehensive security effect. move beyond the rhetorical, the Alliance forces having to fight to effect in the hazy That is why the work NATO is doing must forge grand interoperability that realm between the conventional and to promote civil-military cooperation exports NATO’s way of doing business unconventional, in which political courage is so important. Often called the worldwide to new partners. As part and legitimacy will be almost as important Comprehensive Approach, such of this drive, NATO Standards will as the strength of the force deployed. military-led cooperation will need to require a new set of civil-military Stratcon 2010 must thus urgently re- operate at several levels; the strategic- interoperability criteria based on lessons establish the political and military purpose political, the political-military, at the learned from Iraq and Afghanistan. of the Alliance: the defense of freedom theater and operational levels, if it is Such partnerships will demand the early in the face of those without ethics. Such to afford effective counter-terror and involvement in planning of key civilian purpose will only be crafted if there is a counterinsurgency. agencies. Only then will Stratcon 2010 be sound understanding of three missions: Moreover, hybrid warfare does set firmly on the road to freedom – be it je[cXhWY[WdZ[Wi[_di[Ykh_jo_dWdZ not imply a one-way street for military or civil. around the Euro-Atlantic community cooperation. Afghanistan and Iraq by offering both membership and have demonstrated the extent to Julian Lindley-French, a member of the partnership where applicable; which military operations, to have any Atlantic Council’s Strategic Advisors jeX[jj[hfhej[Yjj^[ieY_[j_[ie\j^[ chance of success, require the political Group, is Professor of Military Art and community against catastrophic legitimization afforded by coalitions Science at the Royal Military Academy of penetration; and and active civilian involvement. Indeed, the Netherlands.

The Atlantic Council 123 NATO’s Strategic Concept for the 21st Century

In order to grow, the Alliance needs global leaders to actively champion its relevance to the people. By Hans Binnendijk

he 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall when we should expect the future to be was an unforeseen shock in punctuated by spikes of strategic surprise spite of many signals that a that both shake and shape our world. tipping point was near. These The fall of the Berlin Wall also marked included the long period of the end of the bipolar Cold War period Tspreading glasnost encouraged by Mikhail and the beginning of the so-called Gorbachev, the astonishing victory of post-Cold War period, when the United Lech Walesa’s Solidarity movement in States briefly stood alone in a unipolar Poland’s June elections, and Hungary’s world. However, that era in international quiet dismantling of its portion of the Iron security was short lived as the attacks Curtain as 80,000 Soviet troops stationed of 9-11 ushered in another new era, there watched – but did not interfere. one marked by the challenge of global At a Berlin conference of experts terrorism and eventually by a new on Germany that I organized in mid- multilateralism. summer 1989 as Director of Studies at The end of the Cold War saw the the International Institute for Strategic shrinking of NATO forces and lowered Studies in London, not one expert readiness postures. In 1991 the Alliance predicted that the Berlin Wall would crafted a new Strategic Concept to come down. It fell just four months address the uncertain demands of an hence. Then in late August, Hungary emerging era, including the need to reach allowed a trickle of East Germans to cross out to former adversaries, maintain a into Austria, and on September 11 the guarded posture toward reversals, and mass exodus from East to West suddenly to ponder NATO’s role in responding to began; an exodus that culminated in crises beyond its borders. the Berlin Wall (and the entire inner Though hesitant at ﬁrst, allies heeded German border) coming down two Senator Richard Lugar’s advice in 1993 months later on November 9, 1989. It was that NATO had to “go out of area or a time of indescribable joy as well as high out of business.” In the Balkans and uncertainty. elsewhere, NATO soon had plenty of Of course, the Berlin Wall was not the business, ﬁlling a critical role in regional last shock in recent history. In contrast to security. For the Alliance, change came the joy of the unforeseen end of the Berlin to mean new members and partnerships Wall, September 11, 2001 was a tragic as well as military restructuring for new shock for America and the world. So it missions. It transformed from a static is that we live in a time of rapid change collective defense organization to a crisis in international security affairs, a time prevention and response organization,

124 The Atlantic Council The Alliance crafted a new Strategic Concept to address the uncertain demands of an emerging era

including at times the deployment of capabilities to address mainly non- The Brandenburg Gate, forces well beyond Alliance territory. military concerns like cyber security, Berlin, November 1989 As many states progressed from partner energy security, counter-terrorism, and status toward NATO membership, as stopping the proliferation of weapons of the aspirations of the EU in the arena of mass destruction. security and defense became apparent, Still other members want NATO to and as a new crisis erupted into open find ways to more equitably share the conflict in the Balkans, NATO agreed responsibility of conducting operations to another revised Strategic Concept at strategic distance. Innovations in 1999. The 1999 Strategic Concept such as pooling of national assets for intended to make the case for the national airlift or collectively funding some and international forces and capabilities operations could allow more allies to that would be needed in order to perform participate more fully by lowering the a growing list of new NATO missions. cost of deploying or sustaining forces However, soon afterward, the attacks in austere environments far from home of 9-11 tested NATO cohesion in a third territory. Better sharing of responsibility and far more challenging international also comes from greater consensus system, a global security environment on undertaking operations, which can that frequently faces challenges not from reduce national caveats placed on troops traditional strong states but rather from provided, hindering their value to non-state actors, failed and rogue states, NATO commanders. and terrorism. NATO has continued Finally, there are allies who place a to expand but fissures have developed greater emphasis on NATO’s political, among allies on what future roles of the diplomatic and training roles. They Alliance will bring the most security value want an alliance that re-engages to members. in arms control negotiations with Some emphasize the need for NATO Russia, consults closely on political to reassure them of its commitment developments, employs what might to collective defense (Article 5 of the be called “defense diplomacy” and Washington Treaty) as the enduring military assistance with key countries, core mission of the Alliance. Other allies and develops a global network of look to NATO to define a new role of partners with common interests and supporting or supplementing members’ interoperable military capabilities. capabilities to protect the resilience Re-engagement also means extending of their populations and economies at partnership energetically to the European home. Such a role would call for new Union, the Istanbul Cooperation

The Atlantic Council 125 Initiative countries (the members of solution, a new Strategic Concept that area. NATO will be both engaging with the Gulf Cooperation Council), the brings the various groups of allies partners and responding to challenges to Mediterranean Dialogue countries of the together in common agreed purpose member collective interests. North African littoral and other partner and with the intent to invest in the All of these demands necessitate a states around the world. minimum essential capabilities to much broader set of force requirements Almost every ally values all of the implement member decisions. for the Alliance, including deployable “four R’s” – Reassurance, Resilience, A new Strategic Concept needs to land, sea, and air forces for combat Responsibility and Re-engagement – reﬂect these four future missions of the (including counterinsurgency operations) to some degree, yet each has its own Alliance: collective defense (conventional as well as stability operations, plus top priority. The situation in NATO and nuclear); homeland resilience and capabilities to assist members and today is similar in some ways to the population security; responsibility partners in cyber security, energy mid-1960s, when several allies favored sharing during crisis response and security, counter-terrorism, and stronger deterrence while others saw stability operations; and re-engagement other missions. Finally, future NATO opportunities for détente with the Soviet with national and international partners. capabilities will need to embrace fully Union. The solution in that period of These four missions, pursued in tandem, the emerging concepts of operational intra-Alliance stress was the well-known represent a re-balancing of NATO civilian-military cooperation and Harmel Report and the new strategy of operational priorities to address member engagement in a comprehensive approach Forward Defense and Flexible Response. concerns within the NATO area and at to conﬂict resolution. Today’s situation calls for a similar its borders, as well as beyond the Treaty At the same time, a persistent global

NATO TIMELINE

1961 1967 1970 Erection of the Berlin Wall. NATO HQ and SHAPE relocate to Belgium. Signing of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Allies adopt strategy of “ﬂexible response,” Treaty. 1962 integrating nuclear weapons into NATO’s Cuban Missile Crisis. entire force structure and adopting high 1971 readiness levels. U.S. engages in détente with China and 1963 U.S.S.R. Assassination of U.S. President Kennedy. 1968 Warsaw Pact armed forces invade 1972 1964-1965 Czechoslovakia. U.S.-Soviet agreements on strategic arms U.S. military intervention in Vietnam. limitations (SALT I) and anti-ballistic 1969 missile systems are signed. 1966 “Prague Spring” movement crushed France withdraws from NATO integrated by U.S.S.R. 1973 military structure. First man on the Moon. NATO and Warsaw Pact talks on reductions in conventional forces.

126 The Atlantic Council recession and the steep ongoing cost to meet “Freedom’s Challenge” far into of NATO operations in Afghanistan, the future. the Balkans, and at sea sap Europe’s We owe this to our children: to pass on already underfunded defense resources, to them a robust and enduring Alliance limiting much-needed investment in that will serve their security needs, as well new capabilities. Therefore, NATO and as successfully as it served our own. must determine how to do more with That should be NATO’s lasting legacy. less by working hard to find efficiencies everywhere possible. Hans Binnendijk is the National Defense Most of all, a new Strategic Concept University’s Vice President for Research must be championed by heads of state and Director, Center for Technology and government in their legislatures and National Security Policy. The and with their publics. It is not enough views expressed are his own and do not to simply listen to public opinion, reflect the official policy or position leaders also need to lead – they must of the National Defense University, make a convincing case for investing in the Department of Defense, or the NATO in a lasting way. If they succeed U.S. Government. All information and Left: soldiers on the newly built Berlin Wall, December 1961; center: Russian troops roll in to Prague during in energizing renewed public support, sources for this article were drawn from the Czechoslovakia Uprising; right: Ronald Reagan and NATO will be well positioned unclassified materials. Mikhail Gorbachev, 1985

1974 NATO deploys Pershing and Cruise Soviets walk out of all arms control Oil price hikes provoke global recession. missiles but pursues arms control negotiations. measures. 1985 1975-1978 Gorbachev initiates process of reform in U.S. Apollo and Soviet Soyuz meet in space. 1981 Soviet Union. Total withdrawal of U.S. from South Martial law declared in Poland following Vietnam. The Helsinki Final Act of the civil unrest. 1987 CSCE recognizes Europe’s existing U.S.-Soviet talks on intermediate-range Signing of Intermediate-Range Nuclear frontiers and pledges respect for human nuclear forces (INF) begin. Forces Treaty. rights and fundamental freedoms. 1982-1984 1988 1979 Spain joins NATO. Warsaw Pact countries announce major SALT II is signed but not ratiﬁed due to U.S.-Soviet strategic arms reduction talks reductions in conventional forces. Soviet deployment of SS-20s and invasion (START) begin. of Afghanistan. 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall.

The Atlantic Council 127 The Threat to NATO’s Future

New challenges like Afghanistan require the Alliance to change the way it operates and cooperates. By Kori Schake

ATO has much to be proud defended at the Hindu Kush. Even most predominant one – NATO countries face. of, both during and after the European security experts consider Strong enemies are as likely to choose Cold War: enemies found terrorism an internal policing matter, asymmetric warfare as weak ones. We the basis for cooperation, rather than a problem amenable to the have already experienced successful the United States was woven projection of military power. By and attacks on transportation systems (the Ninto European security, new missions large, European publics want their use of airplanes in the 9/11 attacks, and new members were adopted as the governments to make their homeland subway bombings in London, trains security environment evolved, creative safe, not to help make the world safe from targeted in Spain) and communications compromises were found for seemingly terror. The Afghanistan experience is (cyber attacks against Estonia and irreconcilable contradictions. The Dual more likely to cause Europeans to pull Georgia), and we have seen Russian Track decision to both deploy modernized in their strategic horizon than further energy resources used for blackmail nuclear weapons and negotiate their expand it. Europeans do not yet accept against their neighbors. Systemic attacks withdrawal was the quintessential NATO they are on a common global mission that against American and European networks coup de grâce. Patterns of cooperation is about universal values. of transport, communications, finance were established through the minuet of Warfare is always asymmetric against and supplies of energy cannot be far civilian and military consultation that have thinking adversaries: they probe for and behind. They are simply too lucrative a served both the United States and Europe exploit our weaknesses. NATO countries target set for those who would wish to sow extraordinarily well. excel in the domain of force-on-force panic in the powerful, comfortable and But there are reasons to be skeptical military engagements; no adversary could self-satisfied West. that the Alliance can find common ground expect to fight NATO militaries and win. Moreover, our networks are vulnerable in on current threats and future areas of But they could drag NATO countries into significant ways. The expansiveness of our cooperation. The Afghanistan mission is a slow stalemate during which our public road, rail, pipeline, and electrical systems revealing how cost-ineffective our approach support for prosecuting the war erodes. makes protection expensive and difficult. is relative to that of enemies such as the This appears to be the approach those we They are public-private partnerships in Taliban. The nature of new threats requires are fighting in Afghanistan have adopted. most NATO countries, with distrust of participation by non-defense agencies And we strengthen their hand in two government involvement by the private that NATO allies are loathed to bring into crucial ways: by holding our military forces sector in some states and outright state Alliance deliberations. Unless the Alliance to a zero-error standard; and by ceding ownership in others. Agreeing to a common addresses these issues it will find that its political control of events to Afghans. We means of protection is nearly impossible, efforts to project security outside Europe have boxed ourselves into a self-defeating yet attacks against these networks would will prove impossible. situation where success is much, much have global repercussions. Responding Europeans have fought in Afghanistan more difficult and costly for us to achieve to attacks would be a matter for domestic out of affection for America, but than it is for our adversaries. agencies, yet the Alliance might view European publics have not been Terrorism is, sadly, not the only such attacks as an “Article Five” matter persuaded that European security is threat – and perhaps not even the requiring common defense. Effective

128 The Atlantic Council A soldier from the 2nd Battalion Mercian Regiment provides security at a patrol base in July, 2009 as part of a ﬁve-week offensive against the Taliban in southern Afghanistan. Operation Panther’s Claw involved around 3,000 British troops backed by U.S., Danish and other NATO units

action to protect our modern networks existing “NATO plus” practices that and National Guard equivalents to our would fall hostage to high policy debates incorporate a collective EU presence. defense ministers and military leaders over the respective “competences” of NATO has worked very creatively with meeting to develop a common threat national governments, the European non-NATO force contributors, such as perception; identify the means needed Union, and NATO even as our adversaries Australia, on missions in the Balkans and to counter threats; determine in which pounce. These factors are likely to make Afghanistan, including them in reviews country’s assets those means exist; communications, transport, financial, and of operational plans and giving them and stitch together an agreed program energy networks the targets of choice for decision-making influence. Giving the of terms under which national assets those who would damage the West. It’s EU an institutional role would facilitate would be employed to collective threats. a dream confluence of difficulties for an addressing threats that are not traditional NATO is just fine at managing traditional adversary to exploit, and we are ill-prepared defense, but for which we want a trans- defense threats. It is still struggling to to handle these problems. Atlantic management structure. This establish in Afghanistan its capabilities in If the NATO countries are to build a means to respond cooperatively to these new threats, we must get past the doctrinal debates about where to manage the problem

If the NATO countries are to build a is surely the right way to incorporate projecting security “out of area.” means to respond cooperatively to these like-minded states. Though we still may What’s needed is a whole new realm new threats, we must get past the doctrinal be undermined by European politics that of NATO cooperation to embrace home debates about where to manage the might exclude Turkey and make EU- security, interior ministers and others if problem. There is no ideal existing forum NATO cooperation more difﬁcult. we are to master the non-defense threats for attacks against civilian infrastructure In order to effectively bring together to our communications, transportation, that have the purpose of creating havoc the government departments with ﬁnancial and energy networks. in our ability to defend our interests. domestic responsibilities and the One way (perhaps more achievable means to manage these new threats, Kori Schake is Research Fellow at the now that France has returned to NATO NATO would need to establish a parallel Hoover Institution, and Associate military structures) to circumvent the structure to Defense Ministerials that Professor of International Security Studies EU-NATO debate would be to extend included interior ministers, Coast Guard at the United States Military Academy.

The Atlantic Council 129 Getting Smart

Jamie Shea asks what smart power means to the Atlantic Alliance

The Atlantic Council ATO is not usually associated has seen NATO forces involved in intensive with smart power. The combat with casualty figures that many Allies organization’s normal public have not had to cope with since World War II profile is firmly associated with or Korea. the hard power instruments This said, and if we take a broad ofN combat troops and heavy military perspective, NATO has certainly learned equipment. Although many international to use its military forces in more diverse institutions are involved in security tasks and versatile ways than when they stood these days, including peacekeeping and sentry at Checkpoint Charlie and along reconstruction from Afghanistan to Africa, the Fulda Gap. Since NATO began to NATO usually finds itself occupying the more intervene in the Bosnian conflict in 1992, kinetic end of the spectrum. Indeed, after the the Allies have launched naval embargoes Alliance’s relatively casualty-free experience in the Adriatic, no-fly zones over Bosnia, in the Balkans in the 1990s, Afghanistan air campaigns in Bosnia and Kosovo, peace

U.S. military commander Lieutenant Colonel William Clark (right) listens to Afghan tribal leaders and district ofﬁcials at Camp Costell at the forward operating base of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Spin Boldak, southern Afghanistan, October 5, 2009

The Atlantic Council NATO’s approach to smart power is to be ready to use its military capabilities in ever more multifaceted ways

implementation missions in both these missions, provincial reconstruction teams, geographical priorities. The UN has places, counter-insurgency operations in election support, training courses for the devoted a great deal of time and attention Afghanistan, training missions in Africa, Iraq Afghan National Army and police and cross- to Africa; the EU has also been active and Afghanistan, and counter-terrorism and border defense diplomacy with Pakistan. It in Africa and the Middle East, whereas counter-piracy missions using naval forces is not only the ability to do all these things NATO has tended to focus on the Balkans in the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Aden. at once, but also to shift emphasis rapidly as and Afghanistan. So, having a clearer Moreover, NATO has also been prepared the security situation changes, that defines sense of the mission priorities among the to deploy forces to deal with humanitarian the smart power challenge for NATO today. major institutions will help to drive the disasters, most notably in the wake of the In this context, there are three specific comprehensive approach in a more top- Kashmir earthquake in 2006. challenges that the Alliance will need to down fashion. The Alliance’s added value in responding master if it is to successfully convert classical The other aspect of the issue is to to crises is its ability to mount military hard power to modern-day smart power. have better coordination of effort and operations, using an unrivaled integrated One is the comprehensive approach, more joint planning between the civilian planning and command structure. Those which is the NATO parlance for the Alliance’s and military aspects of reconstruction. military operations, as we have seen in the increasing need to interact with other Security operations must more directly Balkans and Afghanistan, are vital if an international organizations on the ground assist governance and development plans, environment of security is to be created for in Afghanistan and elsewhere. If those other and the latter can be prioritized in those reconstruction, governance and longer- international organizations are not engaged areas where they can most immediately term development. NATO knows what it is to a similar degree and with comparable help to fill the security vacuum. Benjamin good at, and sticks to it. resources, NATO’s military efforts in clearing Franklin’s famous dictum that “we must The Alliance is not about to acquire territory of insurgents are not backed up by all hang together or we shall all hang civilian capabilities or to compete with governance and development programs. It separately” has never been more true. The institutions, such as the UN, EU or World is not only the Afghans, but also NATO’s own comprehensive approach, whereby NATO’s Bank, in areas where they have far more public opinions who then become frustrated security responsibilities are increasingly experience and expertise. Rather, NATO’s by the lack of progress. transferred to the Afghan security forces approach to smart power is to be ready Today it would be more accurate to and the Taliban are driven away by good and technically able to use its military speak of a “comprehensive attitude” than governance and economic development as capabilities in ever more multifaceted ways, a truly comprehensive approach. All the much as by NATO’s guns, is the Alliance’s to respond to the complex needs of modern major institutions pay homage to the need only viable exit strategy from Afghanistan. stabilization operations. to work together, but that does not mean The second area where NATO can bring For instance, in Afghanistan today to say that they actually find it easy to do its smart power to bear more effectively the NATO-led International Security so on the ground. In part this is because is in the area of partnerships. Nearly 20 Assistance Force is running combat the major institutions often have different countries that are not members of NATO

European Forces (EUFOR) members during a ceremony marking their ﬁrst anniversary in Bosnia, at EUFOR headquarters, military base camp Butmir, near Sarajevo, December 6, 2005

132 The Atlantic Council Right: U.S. Army soldiers prepare to fire a 155mm field artillery piece at a Taliban fighting position near forward operating base Blessing, September 11, 2009 in Nangalam, Afghanistan contribute to its mission in Afghanistan, many, such as Australia, with troops and combat forces. This is not only a more equitable form of burden-sharing but also adds to the Alliance’s legitimacy as the center of a broad international coalition. Others, such as Japan, contribute finance to NATO’s Provincial Reconstruction Teams. NATO is not a global organization, but its ability to act globally depends increasingly on its ability to sustain this broad network of partnership relations. As partners have been very willing to contribute, they have also been relatively undemanding; but as they also suffer casualties and face a loss of public support at home, it will be important that NATO does not take the partners for granted, but is careful to consult them and involve them fully in planning and decision shaping. Moreover, many of NATO’s partners do not contribute to operations with troops, but that does not make them any less important to NATO’s success. They may be needed to provide temporary bases, or to provide over-flights or intelligence or to contribute to counter narcotics efforts and so on. The more NATO is able to build a relationship of trust with its partners, the easier it will be to resolve complex legal issues, such as status of forces agreements, when the time comes. Partners can also be invaluable if NATO is to develop serious programs to deal with new security challenges such as energy cut-offs, or cyber attacks, or threats to the international land and maritime supply routes. NATO NATO’s recently acquired C17 transport of the right strategy. Too often, however, will have to think harder about how it can aircraft and Allied Ground Surveillance strategic reviews become disguised ways of make itself more attractive to the partners Capability. NATO and the EU will also have compensating for the absence of resources by involving them more closely. Breathing to work doubly hard to avoid duplicating and capabilities. more life into consultation mechanisms like their research and development activities Clearly in the 21st century, in which the Euro Atlantic Partnership Council, the and spending money twice on expensive NATO has to deal with a much broader NATO-Russia Council and the Alliance’s training activities for the NATO and EU spectrum of challenges than during the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Rapid Reaction Forces. NATO’s nations Cold War and conduct many missions dialogues, will certainly be a priority area will also have to focus more on doing what simultaneously, it will be important for for the new Alliance’s Strategic Concept. they do best and in role specialization. Even NATO to focus on the threats that can Finally, even if we talk of smart power, today, 20 years after the fall of the Berlin affect its security most and areas where it this concept will only be meaningful if Wall, having more than two-thirds of NATO truly adds value. Certain tasks are really there is also power behind the new smart forces in units that cannot be deployed better left to other organizations. This approaches and the new smart thinking. beyond their territories is not the best said, although NATO cannot prosper In NATO’s case, this will mean improving application of smart power. without the engagement of the rest of the substantially on its current reservoir of Smart power is the effective marriage international community, it is equally military capabilities, particularly in areas of hard and soft power. Provided they are true that the international community such as helicopters, transport aircraft, efficiently plugged into an international will continue to need the backbone of intelligence gathering assets and naval system of cooperation and joint action, NATO. Smart power is, therefore, not the vessels, which have been all too scarce in NATO’s capabilities are certainly the first prerequisite of any single institution, but NATO’s recent operations. At a time of stop whenever North America and Europe the result of those institutions learning to financial crunch, spending tight defense need to defend their security interests work better together. budgets on the right things will be even and solve major security crises. Of course, more important, as will the development smart power only becomes smart when it Jamie Shea is Director, Policy of more multinational solutions, such as is used in an effective way and in service Planning, NATO.

The Atlantic Council 133 NATO: A Bridge Across Time

NATO is constantly adapting and transforming in order to maintain security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. By James G. Stavridis

ix decades ago the foreign The 18 years following were no less ministers of 12 nations signed turbulent, and it is during those years the North Atlantic Treaty in that NATO changed the most. Following Washington, D.C. In doing so, the end of the Cold War, Europe’s political they built a geographic and and military landscapes transformed, Sgeopolitical bridge between North and NATO’s role and purpose re- America and Europe, a cultural bridge examined. In mid-1991 NATO affirmed between diverse peoples, and a temporal its unwillingness to accept any coercion bridge that today spans from the 20th or intimidation against emerging century to the 21st. democracies in Eastern Europe. Later Like any bridge, NATO has swayed under that year, the Alliance completed a the force of the winds of change. Its pillars, Strategic Concept emphasizing improved anchored on the principles of democracy, and expanded security for Europe as a individual liberty, and the rule of law grow whole. NATO responded to the evolving stronger even as the bridge grows longer. security conditions, which for five The last 20 years have been particularly decades were focused on containing dynamic. For those paying attention to communism and Soviet encroachment on the events unfolding as a consequence Western Europe, by promoting security at of perestroika and glasnost, the fall of a strategic distance. the Berlin Wall was another step in the Fortunately, the tensions of the journey towards economic restructuring Cold War never erupted into major and political liberalization. But it was far military conflict between NATO and the more than that; it was a crucial moment Warsaw Pact and the 1990s saw NATO in the collapse of totalitarianism and reaching eastward with an invitation to communism in Europe. former Warsaw Pact nations to join in As the walls once confining both a “Partnership for Peace.” The trans- people and ideas collapsed, the world Atlantic bridge continued expanding as transitioned from a bipolar world NATO welcomed Poland, Hungary, and bounded by the ideological struggle the Czech Republic into the Alliance in between Soviet communism and Western 1999 – the first such expansion since 1982. liberalism to a multi-polar world defined In the final years of the 20th century, by globalization and the rapid flow of NATO engaged in combat in the Balkans, information, ideas, and ideologies. where it stemmed the tides of violence The Berlin Wall fell with an echo felt and helped establish conditions favorable around the world. Before the dust settled, to the Dayton Peace Accord. Almost the “Velvet Revolution” led communists 13,000 NATO troops remain in Kosovo in Prague to step down; the Romanians and Bosnia-Herzegovina today to assure overthrew dictator Nicolae Ceausescu; a secure environment and ensure NATO’s Hungarians elected a non-communist mission there is viewed as a success for government; Germany re-unified; Poland decades to come. elected a pro-democracy President, Lech As the 20th century came to a close, Walesa; the Baltic States gained their NATO leaders developed yet another independence; and the Soviet Union Strategic Concept to contend with 21st- ultimately dissolved – all in a period of century challenges. The 1999 Strategic just over two years. Concept reaffirmed the importance of the

134 The Atlantic Council “NATO is broadly engaged in a complex multi-polar world”

trans-Atlantic link and of maintaining the Alliance’s military capabilities. But it also acknowledged that Alliance security interests can be impacted by a wide range of challenges, including terrorism, sabotage, organized crime, and the disruption of the flow of resources. As the 21st century dawned, NATO was postured for conflict prevention Members of the NATO-led Kosovo force and crisis management; partnership, test a reconstructed bridge in the village cooperation, discourse and enlargement; of Gadime, some 25km south of the Kosovo and arms control, disarmament, capital Pristina, October 5, 2004 and non-proliferation. Against this backdrop, Article Five was invoked in where it is resolute in deterring, the need to deliver comprehensive response to the September 11, 2001 disrupting, and protecting against security that balances the countering attacks against the United States – the terrorism in the Mediterranean – and of conventional threats with preparing first such invocation of the bedrock also off the Horn of Africa, where as part for unforeseen or emerging ones; hard principle of collective defense – and the of Operation Ocean Shield it safeguards power with soft power; military force with pillars of the trans-Atlantic bridge were those strategic waterways from the civilian expertise and capabilities; a Euro- strengthened when Bulgaria, Estonia, scourge of piracy. centric approach with a broader global Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, NATO is broadly engaged in a complex approach; and fixed defensive forces with and Slovenia became new members in multi-polar world. Today, the 80,000 men a flexible and deployable force. 2004, and Albania and Croatia joined the and women of NATO, representing 28 NATO’s continued adaptation to Alliance in 2009. member nations, are found across three emerging threats make NATO an Recognizing that preserving Euro- continents resolutely committed to each organization capable of protecting our Atlantic security requires looking outward other – stronger together – as actors in a collective interests and providing the as much as looking inward, NATO took globalized world. Our civilian leaders are comprehensive security that its member command of the International Security likewise engaged and developing a new nations and their citizens have come to Assistance Force in Afghanistan in 2003. Strategic Concept to address the family of expect and deserve. Today NATO forces, along with those of challenges of the coming decades. During the long decades to come, NATO 15 non-NATO partner nations assigned Considering how well NATO has adapted will remain a bridge to security and stability to the International Security Assistance to the security environment over the past in the Euro-Atlantic region as long as it Force, stand and fight shoulder-to- 20 years, the outlook of NATO adapting remains resolute in its efforts to provide shoulder with Afghans. Together, to future threats and challenges is quite balanced and comprehensive security to they are working tirelessly to erode bright. Those challenges include NATO’s its member nations, bridges the gaps of the foundations of terror and tyranny missions in Afghanistan and the Balkans, understanding with its former adversaries, and enable the democratically elected piracy, terrorism, cyber security, global lives up to its role as an actor in a globalized government of Afghanistan to build the pandemics, climate change, energy flows, world, and remains determined to confidence and trust vital to wresting that poverty and urbanization, migration, an safeguard the freedom, common heritage, country from the grip of insurgency. aging population, and their implications to and civilization of its peoples guided by the NATO forces are also in Iraq where the security of NATO’s member states and principles of democracy, individual liberty, the NATO Training Mission provides its partners. and the rule of law. mentoring, advice and instruction to Iraqi The above challenges are indicative security forces and it can be found at sea of the diversity of real-world threats to Admiral James G. Stavridis is NATO’s as part of Operation Active Endeavor, trans-Atlantic security and underscore Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

The Atlantic Council 135 A Sponsor of Good Governance

he fall of the Berlin Wall, the Chris Donnelly asks, how can collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the subsequent disintegration of the Soviet Union created a NATO help countries to achieve particular problem for which TWestern countries were not prepared: none of the countries of Central and Eastern better statecraft and governance? Europe – not even Russia – had the national governmental institutions they needed to function as a democracy and a market economy. Russia alone had institutions and experienced staff that could function in a sovereign state. Warsaw Pact countries such as Czechoslovakia had national institutions, but on many national and international issues they were only mouthpieces of Moscow without any real capacity for September 10, 1968: Soviet troops policy-making. Smaller countries emerging march through the streets of Prague, from the former USSR had no national Czechoslovakia

136 The Atlantic Council institutions and very little expertise 1989 population totals available in how to run a government behind the Wall department in an independent country. But if these countries newly emerging 1. U.S.S.R. 290,938,469 or re-emerging as sovereign states 2. Poland 38,169,841 lacked the institutions and expertise for 3. Romania 23,153,475 government, they did not lack “men with 4. East Germany 16,111,000 guns” – soldiers, militarized policemen, 5. Czechoslovakia 15,658,079 1 border guards, security and intelligence 6. Hungary 10,566,944 services. There was a real and immediate 7. Bulgaria 8,972,724 4 potential threat to the reestablishment 2 of democracy from militaries and 5 quasi-military bodies whose members – particularly the officer corps – were by no 6 means universally happy with the turn of 3 events. These men (there were virtually no women in significant posts) had, after 7 all, been first and foremost the guardians Figures: 1989 est. of communism rather than the guardians of their nations. The officers had all been volunteers to defend the system. But at one became known as “democratic control of and civilian) from NATO member nations stroke they had lost their salaries, their armed forces.” The relationship between became involved, it rapidly became clear pensions, their ideology and, in the case of the “men with guns” and their new political that there were three areas in particular the USSR, their country too. The outbreak leaderships would need to be rebuilt on where NATO could play an important role. of violent conflicts in several places on the an entirely new basis. The armed forces Firstly, there was the destruction of the periphery of the former USSR showed just of Central and Eastern Europe would Cold War “enemy image.” NATO HQ in how dangerous the situation was. have to be massively reduced and totally Brussels and subordinate military HQs In hindsight, it is remarkable that the reorganized in a very short time. The such as the Supreme Headquarters Allied dissolution of such a vast empire was governments and parliaments would Powers Europe and Allied Forces Southern accomplished with so little violence and that, have to develop effective and acceptable Europe threw open their doors to visits in most places, the armed forces were not a mechanisms of democratic control. The from military and political staffs from block to democratization. Much of the credit publics of Central and Eastern European Central and Eastern Europe, embracing for this must go to the soldiers, policemen countries would have to learn to love and their former adversaries both physically and agents themselves, whose common support their armies, police forces and and metaphorically. A process of “getting sense, patriotism, professionalism and sense security services – not always an easy to know one another” began, which rapidly of duty quickly won out over their sense of transition to make. gained momentum and spread from the outrage, and resentment and betrayal. There The first reaction of the newly formed military into other areas of the body politic. was no mass military move to prevent the democratic governments of Central and Secondly, NATO began the process of “revolutions” of 1989 or to halt the break Eastern Europe, as soon as they realized educating military and civilian leaders on up of the USSR. But for many months the the problem, was to ask for the “NATO the various philosophies and mechanisms armies and quasi-military forces in Eastern model” of democratic control. In some of “democratic control” that had evolved Europe existed in an uneasy, and often cases, governments expected NATO to step in NATO member nations to suit the difficult, situation. Gradually the tension in and take control – for the “comrades very different national circumstances. As eased and the complex and painful process in Brussels” to replace the comrades in the Partnership for Peace (PfP) process of reform began. Moscow. It took some time to get over the developed, this became the principle From start to finish NATO played a very message that there was no single “NATO mechanism whereby civilian officials significant role in this process. This is an model” and that the essence from Central and Eastern aspect of the Alliance’s work that is often of independence was, well, Military Strength European countries little known and appreciated outside close independence. Establishing NATO vs. Warsaw Pact* gained practical education official circles. It led to NATO gaining new the relationship between and experience, not Personnel: areas of expertise that are very applicable in army, government and only in procedures and 3.6 million vs. 3.7 million many other parts of the world today. people is not only a mechanisms for democratic As soon as the political changes got fundamental issue for any Tanks: control of armed forces, underway in Central Europe, NATO’s sovereign country, it is also 51,500 vs. 59,500 but also in the mechanisms military and civilian staff began to engage a relationship that differs and procedures for Artillery: with the military establishments of their widely from country to foreign and security policy 43,400 vs. 71,600 former Warsaw Pact opponents. There country. Each country has development. Pravda is always a common bond, a basis of to work out its own model, * newspaper Jan. 1989 Thirdly, NATO understanding, between soldiers of any and work out how to handle promoted an nation, and this common feeling often the tension that always exists between understanding of the need for enabled good working relationships to be government and army in a democracy. fundamental reform of armed forces and made at an earlier stage than was possible But although NATO could not step in to other security agencies. The structure in political circles, where uncertainty, take charge of Central Europe’s military and function of an army or a police force suspicion and apprehension still hindered forces and there was no NATO template to in a totalitarian state is fundamentally contacts and communication. NATO staffs apply to establish control, NATO could help different from that in a democratic one. very quickly realized that there was going – indeed NATO was at this time the only The transition to democracy was very to be a very big problem in all Central and international organization with expertise. painful. NATO’s engagement, and the work Eastern European countries with what As NATO officials and officials (military done by member nations, which was often

The Atlantic Council 137 Red Army troops parade in honor of Nikita Khrushchev’s visit initiated from or coordinated in Brussels, establishing democratic mechanisms Working initially independently and later did a great deal to ensure that this painful and procedures as a sine qua non of with institutions such as Transparency transition was completed in a way which membership. The EU, of course, also had International, NATO fostered the would not threaten the new and often this as a qualification for membership. But development of good governance and fragile democratic processes developing. as the EU was far less easily accessible and anti-corruption programs both for central This practical help was not confined to further in the future for most Central and government and for the defense and Headquarters or to senior officers. NATO Eastern European countries, it was NATO defense industrial sectors in the new member nations set up training schools that took the lead. Having set standards for democracies. The Defence Academy of the and new-style military academies in the membership, NATO member nations could U.K. is now the PfP center of excellence for newly independent Central and Eastern not but help candidate countries to achieve good governance and leads the academic European states. The most telling success these standards. establishments of the Alliance and partner of these programs to assist reform was in Throughout the latter half of the 1990s, countries in developing this topic and the way the soldiers of the newly reformed programs sponsored by NATO and NATO promoting it on a wide scale. armies were treated by their officers. member nations were instrumental in While the programs with Central and Maltreatment of conscripts was a serious leading not just the military reform, but Eastern European central governmental social problem in the Soviet and Warsaw also the democratic reform process in many and military establishments were Pact armies. After 1991, this tradition was Central and Eastern European countries. initiated and run primarily by the set to continue in the legacy armies. It took The help given was eminently practical. major departments (divisions) of NATO a lot of effort to introduce humane terms It was not only re-education of officer international staff and international of service and re-educate officers to treat corps. It was also the education of civilian military staff, many of the programs with soldiers with respect. But the outcome officials so that they could effectively set up NGOs and those aimed at civil society were has been to make Central and Eastern and man the newly created institutions of frequently sponsored by NATO’s Science European populations proud of their government and democratic control. for Peace program. soldiers and proud to serve. It was the design of the institutions This had long existed to bring scientists As the 1990s rolled on, the progress themselves, and it was the spread of of NATO countries together to collaborate made in reform and democratization of defense and security expertise to publics on civilian science projects, ranging from the defense establishments of Central for whom this had previously been secret, astronomy to medicine. The program and Eastern European countries was forbidden territory. This was done through was now harnessed to open up the gradually spread to influence firstly the sponsoring of newly created NGOs, previously closed, highly militarized police forces, border guards and security strategic studies institutes, university scientific establishments of Central and services; and secondly, central non- departments, think tanks; through Eastern European countries, linking military functions of government. NATO, education courses run locally in Brussels them to their NATO counterparts and simply put, became a sponsor of good for journalists, academics and teachers; showing the way to civilianization. It governance, and remains so to this day. and, through enrolling Central and Eastern was extended to address social sciences The primary influence, and most European civilians and military personnel and democratization, and came to have a powerful incentive, was NATO’s on courses in Western institutions. huge influence on the transformation of

138 The Atlantic Council the civilian educational sector in Central Allies’ own national institutions, which as to be insurmountable. Nothing could be Europe to democratic practices. now send teams around the world to deliver further from the truth. Lastly, but by no means least, the education in democratization, gained a lot If NATO’s experience has shown opening of NATO’s central institutions of their own experience working with Allies anything, it is that all societies face much to participation by Central and Eastern and partners and sharing knowledge. the same challenges, albeit in different European leaderships provided, in Thirdly, the creation of the measure and at different times in their most cases, the first multi-national Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul history. NATO has now amassed an environment in which the newly elected Cooperation Initiative has for some enormous wealth of experience and democratic leaders could meet their years enabled the experience gained in expertise in this area and is ready and able experienced Western counterparts the transformation process in Central to share it. The mechanisms that NATO has and learn how to move and act in Europe to be applied to countries of the created for dialogue and consensus building international diplomatic circles. Mediterranean and “Broader Middle are unique in their effectiveness, even if The NATO acronym has two well-known East.” These countries continue to be very NATO member nations today do not use Cold War period alternative expansions: active, particularly in the scientific and them to full advantage. These mechanisms “No Action, Talk Only,” and “Needs Alcohol civil sectors where NATO educational are, for example, the envy of Pacific Rim to Operate.” Both these proved true in a activities fill a much-needed gap in their countries, which today face some old- most specific sense. No one today doubts societies. Initially, there was some concern fashioned military challenges without a NATO’s willingness and ability to act. But that the experience gained in European NATO to bring them all together to talk. one of NATO’s greatest achievements is countries would not in fact be applicable in If there is a negative side to this that, over the 60 years of its existence, it the different cultural environment of the success story, then it is that, as NATO has developed mechanisms that get nations Middle East and North Africa. There are moves forward into military and security talking rather than fighting over their certainly cultural adjustments to be made. operations around the world, projecting disagreements. The Council, ministerial But in practice, experience has shown that, its member and partner nations’ power to meetings and summit meetings and the in the main, the lessons learned in Central stabilize distant regions and bring security many and various committees all provided Europe are highly applicable in other to troubled areas, there is a tendency for Central and Eastern European continents and cultures. to forget, and perhaps even neglect, the countries the mechanisms for dialogue and It is this that is the real message for the bedrock of mechanisms and procedures for debate that had been so painfully absent in future. NATO’s experience since the fall dialog and consensus-building on which the their previous existence. The wine shared of the Berlin Wall shows that many issues Alliance is based, and which have evolved over the NATO Ambassadors’ dining tables of democracy and good governance are of so much since November 1989. These and after hours in the NATO restaurant concern to all societies, notwithstanding mechanisms and procedures are perhaps helped fuel the development of many a cultural differences. African countries NATO’s greatest treasure. But they could diplomatic relationship or solve many a that face serious problems of governance, be lost if we fail to appreciate them for what political problem. It is easy to overlook this corruption, or control of their armed forces they are. feature, or dismiss it as peripheral or trivial. frequently think that these problems are But it is an integral part of the process of unique to them, that no one understands or Chris Donnelly is Director of the Institute dialogue and consensus building that is so can help, and that the problems are so great for Statecraft and Governance. basic to NATO, so all-pervasive, that it is frequently taken for granted. In fact, it is Soviet soldiers are told that one of NATO’s greatest assets, and should all Soviet troops in Kabul have be recognized for what it is. withdrawn. February 6, 1989 So far we have discussed the development of what amounts to a massive program of sponsoring good governance solely in terms of NATO’s support to the democratization and transformation of the former Soviet and Warsaw pact adversaries. But the program has now spread far beyond these beginnings. To be sure, the program is still very important in those Central and Eastern European countries that are not yet members. Ukraine is one of the biggest beneficiaries, and the progress that Ukrainian governmental institutions have made in comparison to those in some neighboring countries is good evidence of how effective NATO help can be, even if this is not widely recognized. But NATO’s influence has spread much wider. Firstly, NATO experience has been instrumental in promoting and supporting the democratization, demilitarization and reform programs of the EU and UN, through which organizations experience gained by NATO from the early 1990s onwards is now applied worldwide. Secondly, NATO has been an “information exchange” for its members.

The Atlantic Council 139 Breaking Down the Barriers

Political friendships in the 21st century can be ambiguous. But, says Shuja Nawaz, a culture of suspicion can only do more harm than good

he 21st century has ushered in two “friends” erupts the next day, when changes in the global political discussions on greenhouse gases takes landscape that demand a place in the context of global warming. transformation of the mindset China and the U.S. become co-dependent of policymakers around the in trade but clash on the environment. Tglobe. NATO and the European Union Similarly, a West dependent on Middle no longer inhabit a world of black and Eastern oil finds itself coping with white, with a clear and defined set of hostility on political issues such as Israel antagonists and allies. Global issues that and the rights of the Palestinians, or bring together North America and Europe the management of the international and help create partnerships with other financial institutions. And some denizens countries around the world too often of the Muslim world have sworn lasting separate the allies. enmity against some Western nations. Climate change, trade, energy Yes, most of the attackers that took part dependence, and access to resources of in the suicide missions against the the international financial institutions United States on September 11, 2001 were – all these issues create different from the U.S.’s major Middle East ally: Pakistani Jamaat-e-Islami party dynamics among nations and groups Saudi Arabia. supporters at a march towards of nations. Political allies become Today, the United States is Pakistan’s the U.S. embassy in Islamabad on August 18, 2009. The protest economic competitors. A U.S.-India major trading partner and supplier of was against the expansion of the civilian nuclear deal may be celebrated economic assistance. Yet, according to U.S. embassy and deployment of one day, but a bitter battle between these an August 2009 poll by the Pew Research further U.S. Marines to guard it

140 The Atlantic Council The Atlantic Council 141 East German soldiers cordon Center, some 64 percent of Pakistanis struck by the West, not with countries off the border line in front of West surveyed regard the United States as an but with ruling elites or often single Berliners waiting to welcome East enemy of Pakistan. individuals that ruled with an iron ﬁst. Berliners at Checkpoint Charlie, 1989 How does one explain these This confused the inhabitants of the new contradictory trends? How should one nations of the world that were emerging attempt to unravel these issues and from colonialism. How could the nations improve relationships between countries? that espoused democratic values be blind What are the barriers that remain today, to the depredations of their allied rulers in and how can we dismantle them? the Third World? A basic problem that affects Today, similar mistakes continue to be relationships between the West and made. In pursuit of a “global war on terror” the rest of the world has been the or to assure access to energy resources, focus on government-to-government relationships are being fostered with rulers, ties. Somehow, the post-World War II not with the people of the countries they relationships that brought the people of rule. Those people see a major disconnect North America and Europe together got between the principles the Western alliance lost in the noise and confusion of the 20th stands for at home and the actions that century. It became harder for friends of Western governments appear to be taking the United States in Europe and other abroad. A much sharper focus needs to parts of the world to relate to the United be put on relations with civil society and States as a congeries of peoples, much like economic partners inside the countries themselves, and devoted to helping others that the West wants as friends. Greater and understanding them. Overarching social and cultural interaction and a greater themes, such as the Cold War, began ability of the people of the world to travel guiding relationships. Alliances were to the West would help eliminate some of

142 The Atlantic Council The “we” and “they” syndrome fosters the creation of new barriers

has opened the doors, though somewhat grudgingly, to other nationalities. Yes, this will change the nature of Western societies as we know them today. But it will also make them stronger and more resilient, and more aware of global pluralism. Along with greater labor mobility across the globe, the West needs to follow its own economic precepts and allow for freer trade, knocking down tariff and non-tariff barriers alike, so the less developed parts of the world can beneﬁt from increased trade opportunities and help themselves. Over time, this would help reduce aid dependency. But this can only be done if civic and political leaders exhibit the vision that will transform them from simple leaders to statesmen. Talking about Islamic militancy also creates a division. The “we” and “they” syndrome fosters the creation of new barriers, much more divisive than the Berlin Wall. Instead of resorting to such broad characterizations of the Muslim world, we must recognize the causes of unrest and militancy, and the West must be seen as aiding and abetting the forces of change and modernity inside those the emerging barriers of distrust. Yet, the countries, not the anachronistic power emphasis on security seems to be working structures or autocrats who serve the West’s the other way: bringing down the shutters short-term interests. When the West’s on social intercourse and especially travel. actions begin matching its pronouncements The default option seems to be: suspect of the principles of freedom and democracy, everyone in order to prevent the very few the barriers will begin to crumble. that mean us harm. The result is that we Most denizens of the Muslim world anger and antagonize most of our potential seek a voice in their own government. partners in the countries that we need as They resent the privileged access to state friends. And we fall back on dealing with the resources of the connected few. When complaint leaders. The disconnect widens. they stand up to dictators and hereditary The militants inside developing societies rulers who do not respect their own proﬁt from that widening gap. people, the West needs to stand by them, The West needs to come up with better, as it did with the people of East Berlin. less intrusive means of vetting travelers And it must do so consistently. Only such from the developing world so everyone is actions will bring down the emerging not treated as a “suspect” and considered barriers across the globe. “guilty until proven innocent.” Arbitrary detention and deportation do not help Shuja Nawaz is the Director of the South create friends for the West either. As Asia Center at the Atlantic Council of the Western populations age, their economies United States in Washington D.C. He is will badly need an infusion of labor the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, from these countries. They should begin its Army, and the Wars Within (Oxford preparing for that. Even Japan, a bastion of University Press 2008) and FATA: A Most purity in terms of its national population, Dangerous Place (CSIS, 2009).

The Atlantic Council 143 A New Frontier In Democracy Assistance

David L. Phillips explores how best to promote democracy going forward, in the Obama administration and across the Atlantic

hile the end of the Cold U.S. opponents of democracy are also thoughts of liberal democratic systems.” War signaled a victory for cynical about America’s motives. They (Open letter to President George W. Bush, the forces of democracy, question America’s commitment to May 2006). today’s global setting is in the rule of law, pointing to Abu Ghraib, While Ahmedinejad believes that flux and democracy faces Guantanamo, and the rendition of democracy represents the secularization of anW uncertain future. Democracy assistance suspects to countries that torture. In Christian and Western values and therefore no longer consists of consolidating pro- addition, they are quick to criticize the lacks universal appeal, many Muslims democracy movements through training, U.S. for turning a blind eye to the abuses reject fanaticism, citing Islam’s traditions capacity building and technical support. of its autocratic allies. of pluralism, cosmopolitanism, and open- Current challenges require new approaches Democracy assistance typically focuses mindedness. Hundreds of millions of that are more responsive and relevant, on constitutional arrangements protecting Muslims live in democratic countries, either especially in the Arab and Muslim world and promoting individual and minority as minorities or majorities in countries where extremists reject democracy as a rights. It often emphasizes electoral ranging from Turkey and Indonesia to Western construct. The U.S. should not assistance and measures to strengthen Western Europe, and enjoy democratic falter from championing democracy. political parties, independent media freedoms. They maintain that the Islamic Not only is democracy the best system of and civil society. This is anathema to process of consultation is entirely consistent governance to realize human potential, political Islam, which emerged in the 20th with democratic debate. The democracy it also advances U.S. national security by century as an effort by fundamentalists to deficit in the Arab and Muslim world is more providing a political alternative to those address challenges of the modern world. a problem of supply than demand. who might otherwise mistakenly conclude Rejecting innovation, they believe that At this pivotal moment, the Obama that they can advance their aspirations any Muslim who deviates from Shari’a, administration would be well advised to through sensational violence. the strict interpretation of Islamic law, reflect on America’s Cold War experience Critics of U.S. democracy assistance at is impure. Linking piety with an end to and garner guiding principles for home and abroad point to the Iraq War, political corruption and misrule, they reject democracy assistance to the broader where the promotion of democracy was constitutional democracy as the basis for Muslim community. These principles used to justify military action post-facto. secular government that empowers human proceed from the recognition that Even authoritarians who are friendly to the rulers over the law of God. America’s role should be to stand behind, United States resent calls for democracy, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad not in front of democracy movements. insisting that democracy assistance is really is the primary proponent of this radical The U.S. should not “lead” or “teach” a Trojan horse for undermining regimes political theology. He maintains that democracy. It is most effective as a catalyst that are hostile to America’s interests. They Islam and democracy are fundamentally for change. To this end, patience is required; justify their resistance to democratization incompatible: “Liberalism and Western- democratization is a process, not an event. efforts as defense of national sovereignty style democracy have not been able to Overheated rhetoric risks discrediting pro- and protection from foreign intervention. realize the ideals of humanity. Today, democracy activists by making them appear They label democracy activists who receive these two concepts have failed. Those with as agents of a foreign power. The U.S. must political or financial support from the insight can already hear the sounds of tread softly; reform is ultimately driven by United States as stooges of the West. the shattering and fall of the ideology and the societal demand of local stakeholders.

144 The Atlantic Council Without the U.S. to blame for their societal ills, voters in the Arab and Muslim world are increasingly holding their leaders accountable

There is, today, a moment of opportunity. reflect favorably on America’s intentions. to democracy assistance at a time when It flows from President Barack Obama’s Successful democracy assistance should be budget priorities are constrained by the Cairo speech (June 4, 2009), which based on broader, value-based principles financial crisis and the costs of engagement fundamentally shifted the dynamic such as safeguarding rights and enhancing in Iraq and Afghanistan. between Western and Muslim societies: human capital through formal education Democratization of the broader Muslim “I have come here to seek a new systems and economic development. community is a generational endeavor that beginning between the United States and In Cairo, President Obama spoke requires international cooperation. The Muslims around the world; one based upon compellingly about assisting the democratic U.S. can leverage its democracy assistance mutual interest and mutual respect; and aspirations of people for democracy, by working with other countries and one based upon the truth that America freedom and justice. While his words were international organizations. European and Islam are not exclusive, and need not welcomed, the U.S. will be judged by what it countries, as well as the UN, EU, OSCE be in competition. Instead, they overlap, does and not by what Obama says. First and and others have important roles to play and share common principles – principles foremost, restoring U.S. credibility requires supporting elections and governance. of justice and progress; tolerance and the more balanced and effective U.S.-led efforts As was the case during the Cold War, dignity of all human beings.” aimed at realizing a viable state of Palestine democratizing the broader Muslim Without the U.S. to blame for their alongside a secure state of Israel. community will require vision and U.S. societal ills, voters in the Arab and Muslim Reaching out to those directly affected leadership. The Obama administration world are increasingly holding their leaders by democracy assistance is also critical to is off to a good start, but if there is one accountable. Soon after Cairo, Lebanese restoring credibility. Right after President lesson from the Cold War it is the need for voters balked at a coalition including Obama’s Cairo speech, 30 U.S. embassies patience and partnership, with both the Hezbollah; Iranians voted overwhelmingly surveyed civil society in countries that international community and those on the for reform candidates (according to exit are part of the Arab and Muslim world front-lines of democratic change. polls); and Indonesia returned its secular to seek their views on programmatic president to power in the first round. approaches to implementing the so-called David L. Phillips is Director of the Reversing negative perceptions of the Cairo principles. The White House also Program on Conflict Prevention and U.S. will require skillful public diplomacy. launched an inter-agency task force and Peacebuilding at American University in But restoring America’s credibility requires established a fund to support activities. The Washington D.C. His most recent book is substance as well as spin. Policies must Obama administration deserves credit for From Bullets to Ballots: Violent Muslim both advance U.S. national interests and “walking the talk” and dedicating resources Movements in Transition.

The Atlantic Council 145 Unexpected Consequences

From a single European currency to new immigration patterns, Moisés Naím looks at the surprising effects the end of the Soviet Union has had on Europe

he fall of the Berlin Wall was bad news for sovietologists. Thousands of spies, military ofﬁcers, diplomats, professors, journalists and assorted Texperts made a living studying the Soviet Union. None predicted its collapse. But if the sudden and peaceful end of the Soviet empire was a surprise, the effects of the collapse for Europe have been almost as surprising. Here are four of the unexpected consequences that the end of the Soviet Union had for Europe – and that the experts also failed to anticipate:

1. China Displaced the Soviet Union (USSR) as the Main Threat For Europeans When the Berlin Wall fell, no one imagined that China would more directly affect the lives of Western Europeans than was ever the case for the USSR. Not because of China’s military might, but as a result of its economic prowess. After World War II, Western Europe had lived under the accept having a currency controlled the larger the number of nations, threat of a deadly confrontation with from Frankfurt – the headquarters the more powerful the alliance. In the Soviets. Fortunately, that threat of the European Central Bank – were 1960, the European alliance had six never materialized and, in practice, the unimaginable possibilities. Or that member countries, in 2003 it had 15, daily lives of Europeans were not that 14 other countries would also shed and today it has 27. Europe is one of the affected. In contrast, the economic rise their old currencies to adopt the euro. world’s largest economic powers, its of China touches the daily lives of all Equally impossible to imagine was a democracies are a model and its social Europeans: from what they pay for a TV scenario where after a massive global policies are envied by the rest of the set, to medicines, and from gasoline to financial crisis with devastating effects world. Its generous development aid is their home mortgages or the possibility on European economies, the reserve coveted by all developing countries. Yet, of finding a job. Chinese capitalism is currency for those who feared that the despite the numbers, the resources and transforming Europe far more than U.S. dollar would plummet would be the its success, Europe’s influence in world Soviet communism ever did. euro. The euro was a utopia and today is politics has been declining. a reality that does not surprise anyone. Take, for example, the defense of 2. The Euro And that’s a surprise. human rights, a core European value and No one predicted that the fall of the a frequent goal of the European Union’s Berlin Wall would stimulate the creation 3. Europe’s Geopolitical Weakness international efforts. According to a study of a single European currency. That The influence of an international by the European Council on Foreign the Germans would be willing to leave alliance should be proportional to Relations (ECFR), the influence of the the D-Mark or that the French would the number of nations that join it: continent at the United Nations regarding

146 The Atlantic Council Opposite: Europe’s ﬁrst President, Herman Van Rompuy, and the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief, Baroness Ashton, with EU leaders in Brussels. Below left: A textile factory in Taiyuan: Chinese capitalism touches the lives of all Europeans. Below right: The Mahmud Mosque in Zurich: immigrants make up about 10 percent of the population of many Western countries

Russia. At the time, it would have also been surprising to learn that Poland, Hungary, or the Czech Republic would become bastions of pro-Americanism. But these are some of the surprising realities of the post-Berlin Wall Europe. Anxiety over immigration, especially from Muslim countries, has become a topic of daily discussions from parliaments to dinner tables. human rights has plummeted. In the late The possibility that Europe could turn 1990s, 70 percent of the countries in the Anxiety over into “Eurabia” is a corollary of these United Nations supported European anxieties. Today, immigrants make initiatives on human rights. Today, 117 of up about 10 percent of the population the 192 countries regularly vote against immigration has of most Western European countries, Europe at the United Nations. The ECFR and in some large cities they reach also notes that in 2008, Europe sent more become a topic of 30 percent. Inevitably, surveys show troops to Afghanistan than the United that 57 percent of Europeans consider States – 500 of whom lost their lives. The that in their country “there are too EU was also at par to the United States in daily discussion many foreigners.” Meanwhile, in some financial aid there. Yet, its weight in the countries of the former Soviet Union overall strategic approach to Afghanistan 4. Islam in Old Europe, and America economic, political, cultural and even is very limited. The same applies to the in New Europe military pro-Americanism is flourishing. conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. At the height of the Cold War it would That this should happen in a continent Europe sends a lot of money but has little have been hard to imagine that the where anti-American sentiments are effect. The countries of the European European public would feel more common is another astonishing legacy of Union do not act in a very united and threatened by the flow of immigrants the fall of the Berlin Wall. determined fashion and, inevitably, from Arab countries than from the this diminishes Europe’s geopolitical expansion of communism in their Moisés Naím is Editor in Chief of Foreign importance in the world. continent – or by an armed conflict with Policy magazine.

The Atlantic Council 147 Contacts

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148 The Atlantic Council Contributors

Josef Ackermann ...... 47 David Marsh ...... 34, 44, 66, 70 Tennent H. Bagley ...... 94 Barry McCaffrey ...... 104 J. D. Bindenagel ...... 54 Simon Michell ...... 118 Hans Binnendijk ...... 124 Adam Michnik ...... 24 Mathew J. Burrows ...... 120 Moisés Naím ...... 146 Richard Burt ...... 48 Klaus Naumann ...... 86 George H.W. Bush ...... 10 Michael Naumann ...... 92 Mihaela Carstei ...... 108 Shuja Nawaz ...... 140 David M. Catarious, Jr...... 110 Barack Obama ...... 7 Michael Dobbs ...... 75, 78 David L. Phillips ...... 144 Chris Donnelly ...... 136 Condoleezza Rice ...... 82 Thomas Enders ...... 88 Kori Schake ...... 128 Frederick Forsyth ...... 40 Peter Schneider ...... 20 Sherri Goodman ...... 110 Jamie Shea ...... 130 Chuck Hagel ...... 150 Ellen Johnson Sirleaf ...... 15 Václav Havel ...... 16 James G. Stavridis ...... 134 Frederick Kempe ...... 18, 28, 36, 50, 58, 98 Frederick Taylor ...... 62 Helmut Kohl ...... 8 Margaret Thatcher ...... 13 Julian Lindley-French ...... 122 Charles F. Wald ...... 110 John R. Lyman ...... 108 Damon Wilson ...... 114

Index of advertisers Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Portugal ...... 74 Allianz of America Corporation...... 6 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. 12 BMW Stiftung Herbert Quandt ...... 2 MLS Worldwide ...... 73 CBC - Companhia Brasileira de Cartuchos ...... 46 Raytheon Company ...... 152 EMPORDEF...... 14 SAKAERONAVIGATSIA Ltd ...... 102 Kirkland & Ellis LLP ...... 69 Schott AG ...... 17 Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Italy ...... 97 Government of Georgia ...... 32

The Atlantic Council 149 The Limits of Force: The U.S. in the 21st Century Senator Chuck Hagel, Chairman, the Atlantic Council of the United States

e are only now coming life better for most people worldwide to terms with what it during the second half of the 20th will take to lead in the century. world that has evolved Our greatest threats today come from in the 20 years since the the regions left behind after World BerlinW Wall’s fall, instructed by the hard War II and the Cold War. Addressing lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. these threats will require a foreign When I came to the Senate in 1997, the policy underpinned by engagement – post-Cold War world was being redefined in other words, active diplomacy but by forces no single country controlled not appeasement. We need a clearly or understood. The implosion of the defined strategy that accounts for the Soviet Union, and a historic diffusion interconnectedness and the shared of economic and geopolitical power, interests of all nations. Every great threat created new influences and established to the United States – whether economic, new global power centers – and new terrorism, proliferation of weapons of threats. The events of September 11, 2001 mass destruction, health pandemics, shocked America into this reality. The environmental degradation, energy, or 9-11 Commission pointed out that the water and food shortages – also threatens attacks were as much about failures of our our global partners and rivals. intelligence and security systems as about Global collaboration does not mean the terrorists’ success. retreating from our standards, values or The U.S. response, engaging in two sovereignty. Development of seamless wars in Iran and Afghanistan, was a networks of intelligence gathering and 20th-century reaction to 21st-century sharing, and strengthening alliances, realities. These wars have cost more than diplomatic cooperation, trade and 5,100 American lives; more than 35,000 development can make the biggest have been wounded; a trillion dollars has long-term difference and have the most been spent, with billions more departing lasting impact on building a more stable our Treasury each month. We forgot all and secure world. There really are the lessons of Vietnam and the preceding people and organizations committed history. to destroying America and other free No country today has the power to countries, and we and our allies need impose its will and values on other agile, flexible and strong militaries to face nations. As the new world order takes these threats. How, when and where we shape, America must lead by building use force are as important as the decision coalitions of common interests, as we did to use it. Relying on the use of force as after World War II. Then, international a centerpiece of our global strategy, as organizations such as the United Nations, we have in recent years, is economically, NATO, the World Bank, the International strategically and politically unsustainable Monetary Fund and GATT (now the and will result in unnecessary tragedy – World Trade Organization) – while flawed especially for the men and women, and – established boundaries for human and their families, who serve our country. government conduct and expectations that helped keep the world from drifting Adapted from Senator Hagel’s article in into World War III. They generally made the Washington Post, September 3, 2009.

150 The Atlantic Council

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