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Kobe University Repository : Thesis Kobe University Repository : Thesis Alternative Description of Afghanistan's Development Failure: Ethnoreligious barriers to evolution of good governance and 学位論文題目 knowledge accumulation (therefore,to economic development) both in Title prewar and postwar Afghanistan(アフガニスタンの開発失敗に関する 代替的記述 戦前と戦後のアフガニスタンにおける良質な統治と知識蓄 積（すなわち、経済発展）の進展に対する民族的な障壁) 氏名 HASAN AGHA JAVID Author 専攻分野 博士（経済学） Degree 学位授与の日付 2018-09-25 Date of Degree 公開日 2019-09-01 Date of Publication 資源タイプ Thesis or Dissertation / 学位論文 Resource Type 報告番号 甲第7269号 Report Number 権利 Rights JaLCDOI URL http://www.lib.kobe-u.ac.jp/handle_kernel/D1007269 ※当コンテンツは神戸大学の学術成果です。無断複製・不正使用等を禁じます。著作権法で認められている範囲内で、適切にご利用ください。 PDF issue: 2021-10-02 Alternative Description of Afghanistan’s Development Failure Ethnoreligious barriers to evolution of good governance and knowledge accumulation (therefore, to economic development) both in prewar and postwar Afghanistan 平成30年07月 神戸大学大学院経済学研究科 経済学専攻 指導教員奥西孝至 Hasan Agha Javid Abstract: Institutional development theory asserts that institutions play a primary role in economic development (North D. , 1990), (Acemoglu, 2003), and (Kuran, Aoki, & Roland, 2012) and development failure in many poor countries is the failure of their institutions (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2012). This is a bigger problem in ethnically-diverse countries with weak institutions (Easterly W. , 2001). Empirical studies produced similar results, showing a negative and significant relationship between ethnic diversity and economic growth when institutions are poor (Alesina & Ferrara, 2005) and (Easterly W. , 2001). Despite the broad agreement on the significance of institutions, they do not entirely agree on how ethnic diversity effects institutions and economic growth, the channels through which diversity impacts growth, according to them are underinvestment in public goods (this paper studies education in detail), lower redistribution, rise of powerful elites and their manipulation of institutions, corruption, and ‘social exclusion’ or discrimination. In the absence of reliable data on Afghanistan, this research conducts a qualitative and descriptive study of Afghanistan’s postwar development failure in institutional context, the conclusion is in line with above studies. Afghanistan’s development failure is largely due to the failure of its institution which was based/founded on the ethnic Afghan’s* right to rule excluding the majority non-Afghan ethnicities in the country. Similar to above issues, the four fundamental issues of the Afghan institutions suggested by this paper are 1. Afghan nationalism and ethnic marginalization, ‘social exclusion’ 2. centralization of Kabul government and concentration of power (elites of Kabul), 3. political Islam (a relatively unique case), and 4. foreign assistance (aid-dependence). However, contrary to the popular believe, the development failure in Afghanistan is not a postwar (post-2001) phenomenon but a legacy and continuation of prewar (1880- 1978) institutions, both prewar and postwar Afghan institutions same at least the above four issues. More research and better data can expand and improve this somewhat unique view of development failure in Afghanistan. * Afghan in this paper means Pashtun and used interchangeably, not including other ethnic groups in Afghanistan. Table of Contents Chapter One: ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction to Afghanistan ...................................................................................................................... 7 Chapter Two: ............................................................................................................................................ 18 Afghanistan’s century of failure ............................................................................................................. 18 Ethnoreligious politics and creation of Afghan state .......................................................................... 20 Chapter Three: .......................................................................................................................................... 28 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 29 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 40 Qualitative analysis ................................................................................................................................. 43 Four fundamental factors in Afghan institutions .................................................................................... 45 1. Afghan nationalism and ethnic identity crisis ............................................................................. 45 2. Centralized government of elites ................................................................................................ 51 3. Political Islam and development in Afghanistan ........................................................................ 54 4. Aid-dependence and economic development in Afghanistan ..................................................... 57 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 67 Chapter Four:............................................................................................................................................ 70 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 71 Islam and stagnation in knowledge and reform ...................................................................................... 75 Modern schooling in Afghanistan ........................................................................................................... 79 Increasing dropout from education system ............................................................................................. 86 Higher Education .................................................................................................................................... 90 Education and Information Technology ................................................................................................. 92 Data and Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 101 Descriptive Data Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 101 Refugees and Human Capital ................................................................................................................ 105 Education in Afghanistan as compared to selected Asian countries ..................................................... 109 Conclusion: ........................................................................................................................................... 115 Chapter Five: ........................................................................................................................................... 117 Conclusion and Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 117 Bibliography: ........................................................................................................................................... 120 Appendix: ................................................................................................................................................ 130 Chapter One: Introduction Today after seventeen years of postwar reconstruction and development efforts in Afghanistan, economic development indexes reveal that the country is still one of the least developed countries in Asia, a result far different from the initial expectations and plans for postwar Afghanistan. Estimates1 show that more than thirty-six percent of the population live under poverty line and a similar percent are unemployed. In Transparency International’s ranking, Afghanistan ranked as one of the top three most corrupted countries in the world in the past several years (Transparency International, 2012-2017)2, Afghanistan is still a highly conflict-ridden and aid-dependent country. The current trend and its projection do not leave much scope for optimism at least in the foreseeable future. The deteriorating situation in the past decade forced millions of people out of the country making Afghanistan one of the biggest sources of refugees in the world (UNHCR, 2018) 3 . The natural question to ask may then be why did Afghanistan fail despite the unprecedented large-scale international support and a new government for almost two decades of postwar? The common answers by experts (economists and statesmen)4 and others usually refer to factors such as the country’s decades of wars, foreign intervention, corruption, poverty, illiteracy and so on. However, this research proposes a different argument by including deeper and wider issues concerning the one century of Afghan institution-building and ethnic politics which remain largely unspoken, for two
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